How likely is war with Iran over the next few weeks?
Posted by Apocalypse-warrior@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 338 comments
Serious question here. I know this has been posted about. I’m trying to cut through the noise. I saw a post on the main Israeli news network that an attack was imminent. What is the consensus here? It always seems like we are on the brink of war with Iran but it never pans out.
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-military-announces-more-air-assets-middle-east-2025-04-01/
troy_caster@reddit
Not likely at all.
CenturyLinkIsCheeks@reddit
i'd say some kind of bombing are deffo going to happen, trump seems to follow through on his bombing comments.
mindsetoniverdrive@reddit
Trump didn’t know that Iran and Russia are buddies, and was Big Sad when he found out. We might actually skirt by this particular doomsday scenario bc Trump is Daddy Vladdy’s little bitch.
Marsupialize@reddit
Putin is letting Trump hit Iran a little as part of a larger game, no regime change will happen, a few bombs will hit a few sites and some sort of BS ‘agreement’ will be drafted up to give Trump a fake ‘win’ this all couldn’t be any sloppier if you tried to make it sloppy
samleegolf@reddit
Ok Mr secret agent…you probably do parkour imagining you’re part of seal team six too lol
Sisyphus192@reddit
Alternatively; Putin may be very willing to throw Iran under the bus. It would drive up oil prices boosting Russia's oil exports as well as getting USA involved in another pointless conflict and drawing attention away from Ukraine.
SpaceballsTheCritic@reddit
Ding, ding, ding!
All it takes is 3 strikes and iran stops all oil exports.
Thoth-long-bill@reddit
However Russia relies hugely on Iranian drones for bombing the shit out of Ukraine
zaevilbunny38@reddit
Not since last year, Iran did a full transfer in exchange for the air defense system Israel blew up last year. There is a chance Iran goes all Samson on the Middle East, and knocks out much of their oil production. If that happens Putin gets everything he wants, and the US gets the blame
Thoth-long-bill@reddit
Interesting!! So Putin could be running low on drones if there is not a steady stream coming in.
Southern-Tomatillo91@reddit
Russia produces the drones now
zaevilbunny38@reddit
No most of the parts come from China or can be made locally. They are assembled by college and high school kids at technical schools. The actual explosives are added later, right before deployment.
chanting37@reddit
I mean the only way to beat us would be to stretch our military and economy as wide as possible, then drag us into a full blown war. Hopefully the military beffed up missile defense.
jlennon1280@reddit
Bombing Iran would be a good distraction from the tariffs and economy for a bit. I say count on it
Potential_Drawing_80@reddit
Iran is the only reason Russia can stay in the Ukraine war. A couple well-placed drone strikes could cause Iran to stop selling weapons to Russia, forcing them to the negotiation table.
Content-Ad-9556@reddit
Russia doesn't relly that much on Iran.
mk9e@reddit
I would trust your opinion on geopolitical politics more if you could fucking spell.
N1N4-@reddit
One more on the list what he doesn't know.
Also that drugdealers pay no taxes for fentanyl. Or spain is not in BRICK.
Potential_Drawing_80@reddit
The CIA and their cartels do pay taxes on their fentanyl sales. Minimum tax rate of 16% plus 15% in laundering fees.
johnflagg2112@reddit
The Orange one couldn't find Iran on a map.
Beige240d@reddit
Iran and China are bigger buddies. China stepped in to restart Iran's nuclear program after the US dropped it. China has a 25 year development agreement with Iran, a naval base there (I think), and has been suspected of arms transfers/sales there. Then there's the whole bit about them using Iran as a proxy to support Palestine, which was really just an easy way for China to continue destabilizing the US. IMO bombing Iran will inevitably involve China.
aoc666@reddit
It could also just be a force projection/intimidation, the us does this a lot in very visible and not so visible ways. The training exercises the US routinely does is not just for training, it’s to show “hey this is what we can do.” Might be as simple as that.
randomrealitycheck@reddit
Do you honestly think force projection has any effect on Iran? Have you read a history book?
aoc666@reddit
I have and that's the thing about force projection, you can go kinetic very easily. Last time Iran screwed around they got smacked. You do realize there are Navy and MEU's (Marine Expeditionary Units) traversing the globe constantly right? When they move it doesn't always mean we go to war. Just like carrier strike groups get adjusted and doesn't always mean that we're going to war. And to be clear striking houthis and striking mainland Iran are very two different things to decision makers.
gamergirlgstring@reddit
okay, but nobody is putting THAAD batteries in the same spot as those carrier strike groups and B-2s for a little piss measuring competition. they’re relying on the “nothing ever happens” crowd to make people feel the casus belli came out of nowhere, when in reality— like you said— this can get incredibly violent in a couple hours of escalation, and “smacking” Iran under this administration abso-fucking-lutely means a new multipolar war
fargenable@reddit
What’s the THAAD battery news?
gamergirlgstring@reddit
i’m the opposite of militarily… educated? but we basically moved one of our largest and most expensive air defense systems to a disputed base off the coast of south asia. there are like maybe five or ten that the US owns in total and it’s hard to see that as just posturing (when you’re posturing you’re not expecting to actually get hit back or need protection from it)
fargenable@reddit
Haven’t seen any news that THAADs have been moved to a “disputed base off the south coast of Asia”.
gamergirlgstring@reddit
it’s Diego Garcia, which is the only currently inhabited part of the Chagos Islands. native population was forcibly expelled during its occupation a few decades ago, but Britain agreed recently to allow Chagossians back and return it to the country that’s claimed it since then (Mauritius.)
should be on the sixth paragraph here, and i should have clarified it’s not more than one yet: https://www.defensenews.com/air/2025/04/02/us-sends-f-35s-to-middle-east-as-strikes-on-houthis-continue/
aoc666@reddit
That’s the reason of a show of force. but the point is that force deployments happen all the time to include some that look like this occasionally. A few more things have to happen before I’d say it’s likely that Iran is going to be struck directly. I’d assume that the current administration is going to make some more demands, perhaps more force build up if not met, then you can start saying the likelihood of it goes up.
gamergirlgstring@reddit
i agree with you, i just think those few more things are probably on pete hegseth’s motivational calendar if not the pentagon’s soon. so yeah i assume the same of them
GiveAlexAUsername@reddit
If Trump does a serious direct bombing of Iran then Iran will retaliate by turning our bases in the region to cinders with missiles and at that point we are already at war
randomrealitycheck@reddit
Iran is much more calculating than that. There will be a response but not an outright attack on military bases. Instead, it will be a mix of tanking our economy while upping their support to the numerous terrorist organizations who will then raise hell with us - giving Iran plausible deniability.
solkov@reddit
Iran is in a very weak place right now. The fact that the late Shah's son is out trying to portray himself as a leader longing to come home means something is coming.
GiveAlexAUsername@reddit
A fair analysis and you're describing their MO well but I think that a US bombing campaign would escalate us beyond that
SadPhase2589@reddit
He’s been itching to use a nuclear weapon since 2016. The first administration let him use a MOAB to quell his thirst. This administration won’t stop him.
meshreplacer@reddit
Maybe they will let him fire off one set to a small yield of 10-20t to keep him happy.
SadPhase2589@reddit
No, they turn Iran into a glass parking lot to scare the shit out of the rest of the world so everyone falls in line.
Sunbeamsoffglass@reddit
Hello WWIII.
You want a full on war with every Muslim country? Thats how you get it.
solkov@reddit
No. The Sunnis aren't going to fight for Iran after they have wanted the Iranian influence scaled back anyway. Israel helped do that with the beeper run. The Sunni countries just don't want to be involved.
Meowweredoomed@reddit
Yeah because they're so great at warfare. Cross-reference their 7 wars with Israel.
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
Pakistan is a nuclear power.
Consistent_Pound1186@reddit
Pakistan doesn't have missiles that can reach America
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
Maybe not, but they can reach a lot of US military bases, any US forces that attempt to invade, and a lot of allies (if we have any left). There's a reason why nuclear powers don't go to war with each other. They engage in proxy wars instead (Ukraine).
And some might say, "well the US can just nuke them back". Sure, but where does all the fallout go? In the case of Pakistan, maybe India. Hell, if you hit Kashmir just right you might irradiate a bit of China. They ain't gonna like that much, and they do have missiles that can hit the US.
Fshtwnjimjr@reddit
There's a reason they coined the term Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD)
hadtobethetacos@reddit
pfft. the entirety of the middle east cant even kind of contend with the united states military.
Present-Researcher27@reddit
Did you just sleep through the last 20+ years?
Garake@reddit
The entire Middle East doesn't have the leverage to start that huge of a conflict. Nobody's going to come to their rescue, what exactly do you think they will do to the USA?
Historical_Visual874@reddit
Face it, Trump is too distracted trying to distract us. He'll never realize that our allies are now non-existent. He is stupid enough to keep antagonizing everyone until it's too late. Every day, he is talking about using military force to grab the Panama Canal or acquire Greenland. He's like a toddler in a toy store with his parents fully distracted.
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
Pakistan is a nuclear power.
Garake@reddit
I didn't say they didn't have them
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
The idea of a conventional war across "the entire Middle East" is insane. The US is certainly not capable of pacifying the good part of a continent. Who's in charge of Afghanistan right now?
And we ain't nuking anyone. It's not going to happen. Nukes are a political tool used to prevent war with other powerful nations. There's a reason why nukes don't get used....ever. Let's say you nuke parts of Iran. Where does the fallout go? If you hit western Iran just right you will seriously fuck up the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and hell maybe some of Saudi Arabia. You might say, "they don't got nukes so what". Maybe so, but they sure got a lot of peoples' money, not to mention a lot of American military bases.
Or maybe what, a tactical nuke on Tehran. Kill a couple million people on TV. Not a great look. Also, all the foriegn nationals that would die in embassies. Now some of their countries do have nukes with ICBMs capable of hitting the US, or US interests.
And once you pull the trigger on nukes, there will be consequences. No matter how long it takes, no matter how much money the rest of the world spends, a rouge nation who has demonstrated the willingness to nuke another country pre-emptively will not be allow to continue. Minus the nukes, you could then compare the US to Japan or Germany in the 40s.
Far_Cat9782@reddit
Jesus Christ are we the bad guys?
No_Mission_5694@reddit
Only on Reddit. Everyone else knows a global plurality/majority (1 billion+ members) organized crime network with religious characteristics for exactly what it is
Garake@reddit
Yeah we are definitely the bad guys these days it's wild honestly
ChaosRainbow23@reddit
Twenty years ago if you told me the USA would be part of the Axis of Evil in WWIII instead of fighting against it, I would have called you crazy.
Yet here we are, in the midst of a global rise in fascism and fascistic rhetoric.
When Dick fucking Cheney is the voice of reason, you know you're in deep shit.
Garake@reddit
Yeah we are fucked
ThePlatypusOfDespair@reddit
Wow, we really did just forget about 9/11, didn't we.
Yeah, what could any country in the Middle East possibly do to hurt the US.
Garake@reddit
Not much when everything they have ever known is glass shards
Present-Researcher27@reddit
Them country’s huh
Garake@reddit
Nice, grammar Real original lol
SquirrelyMcNutz@reddit
Something people need to realize about Iraq & Afghanistan and the US occupation...
We were fighting with, basically, both hands tied behind our backs. The rules of engagement were pretty fucking stringent on us. That whole 'nation building' and 'winning hearts and minds' thing.
An actual war? Ya no. They don't stand a chance.
bread_and_circuits@reddit
Was the nuclear arsenal used in the last 20 years?
Present-Researcher27@reddit
You cannot possibly be calling for that. Don’t even joke about it.
hadtobethetacos@reddit
Every time we've been in the middle east in the last 20 years it was technically a "military action". If the united states were to declare open war on the middle east with a full mobilization of the military, and full war time economy, there is absolutely nothing they could do about it. 2 super carriers in the persian gulf could decimate every city over there. amd that doesnt include ground or air forces.
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
Pakistan is a nuclear power.
hadtobethetacos@reddit
and? they have around 170 nuclear weapons, it take around 4 of our interceptors to guarantee an icbm to be shot down, and pakistan doesnt even have icbms. so sure. they could use their nuclear weapons. on themselves...
SadPhase2589@reddit
Trump doesn’t give AF, he just wants to look strong. I’m surprised we haven’t gotten pictures of him shirtless on a horse yet.
OkGrab8779@reddit
Not really iran is not popular in the gulf.
DaddyIsAFireman55@reddit
Lovely.
The Putin will feel emboldened to use against Ukraine, and the world reluctance to use WMD is erased.
Successful-Elk-7384@reddit
Bingo, this will give Putin the full green light because he's threatened to nuke them multiple times.
hallucination_goblin@reddit
Ahhh the antichrist and his toys...
Fine_Land_1974@reddit
Ha, the obligatory, signs Trump might actually be the anti-Christ comment:
https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-spot-the-antichrist-heres-the-biblical-predictions/
ImportantBiscotti112@reddit
I think the only one we’re missing with Trump is the “signs and wonders”. God help us if he starts performing “miracles”.
Simur1@reddit
He did get elected and he might end US hegemony. Turning water to wine seems second rate tbh
lazybeekeeper@reddit
Wish I could read it all the but the site keeps having errors. Not sure why.
Fine_Land_1974@reddit
Try reading it as text only
Poncahotas@reddit
The proclaimed P̶r̶i̶n̶c̶e̶ President of Peace, everybody
Thisallseemsalittle@reddit
Father of lies
RU4real13@reddit
Beware Cowards given crowns and riding white horses.
lokicramer@reddit
The pope was supposed to have been the antichrist back in the day, same with Obama.
gxgxe@reddit
So much so he wanted to bomb a hurricane. Damn. I had forgotten about that.
SadPhase2589@reddit
Me too. Thanks for the laugh.
Welllllllrip187@reddit
Taliban has full power now, and all the money and everything we invested in the afghan government. they still view us as the infidels that don’t deserve life. A new harder 9/11 could make that a given and make the itch worth it for them. Us is already slightly unstable. Then it becomes acceptable to use nukes in war. That’s not a world we want to see…
Tru_Op@reddit
Well that’s about the most absurd thing I’ve read on Reddit recently….
zed_kofrenik@reddit
Saw an article just today in one of those pop-up "news" outlets promoting the use of the newly retooled B61-13 warhead for striking Iranian nuclear facilities.
rodimustso@reddit
I agree, they already are ignoring courts, and starting a war is an easy excuse to usurp more power. It follows the patterns they've been at for the last 3 months
i-can-sleep-for-days@reddit
Plus the war will be a great distraction from the tariffs.
Outside-Constant-453@reddit
Trump's boss, (Putin, not Musk), said "there will be catastrophic consequences" if the U.S. bombs Iran, so that means Trump got told not to, and I'm betting he follows these orders like he has followed all of Putin's other orders.
Raleighgm@reddit
Yep, he said he was going to bomb the economy with tariffs and lo and behold he followed through. I’d say a good war to distract from the failing economy is on the menu.
After_Bid_2670@reddit
Trump would do what Putin tell him to do
LaChevreDeReddit@reddit
Also He is the guy that wanted to drop the MOAB so bad, even tho army hat a hard time finding a suitable target....
He also over bombed Syria out of nowhere.
-UltraAverageJoe-@reddit
Do you have inside knowledge on this? Were you added to a Signal chat recently?
Dadittude182@reddit
This is funny to me as most Trump supporters are quick to point out that he's an "anti-war" president. I don't know, for someone who dodged the draft for Vietnam, he certainly seems to be poking every bear he can think of to start a war.
daveDFFA@reddit
Wondering if this time the Middle East has the White House in its sights instead of twin towers/pentagon
9Implements@reddit
When did he comment about it?
realityunderfire@reddit
Within the last couple days, something to the effect “if Iran continues down the nuclear path we will bomb their facilities” Israel really pushing us to go to war.
gamergirlgstring@reddit
i wanna say his exact words were “something’s going to happen very soon. there’s going to be bombing”
Deicide1031@reddit
Bombing is all you’ll get because no country is going to put soldiers in Iran unless there’s an existential crisis. Iran is simply too tough to invade and even if you take it you’ll be facing insurgents for years.
It’s a waste of time just like invading the U.S. would be a waste of time.
cartesionoid@reddit
The amount of comments here casually declaring that we can just bomb then a little bit without any repercussions is mind blowing. It’s even a little depressing because this sub is expected to have people who know better than the average Joe. Iran has top notch air defenses, which Israel was not able to even scratch. It’ll not be easy to fly a super big plane carrying super big bombs and drop them at will. And even if ( a huge if)we are able to take out one or two sites that means we will only have kicked the hornets nest. They have a very lethal missile and drone program which our bases have no chance to defend against. Just because of the sheer numbers. Did you see how easily a few hundred missiles and drones depleted Israel’s air defenses? Imagine 10,000 of them flying at every base and every carrier ship at the same time. The number of Americans that’ll lose their lives that day would be staggering. Nothing good will come of it. We best pray that the people at the decision making center are more realistic than the casual bomb guy in the replies here
solkov@reddit
Iran is probably going to get their nuke plants bombed and they will just have to sit there and take it.
No-Group7343@reddit
For what reason? Try and break his "no wars" streak
alienatedframe2@reddit
Pretty low.
dawnenome@reddit
No one knows. That's the scariest answer you can possibly get in this context.
Dull-Contact120@reddit
Iran is the last target of the 7th. They’re just waiting for the proxy to fully restock and getting ready. Unless Iran magically get those hands on a nuc
RaisedByHoneyBadgers@reddit
FWIW, they could have one today with an IBCM and hypersonic reentry vehicle. This is 1950s technology and Iran has some of the best engineers and physicists. They have the fuel. What's holding Iran back is a belief that mass murder is wrong and strategically not wanting all their neighbors to nuke up.
The U.S. saber rattling will eventually force that miracle to be revealed. That's why Iran isn't blinking.
Agreeable_Action3146@reddit
Did you just say Iran thinks mass murder is wrong?! LMAO. What was October 7th?
RaisedByHoneyBadgers@reddit
Iran wasn't involved?
Rabbit-Hole-Quest@reddit
The greatest dream of one of the biggest psychos in the Middle East will come true
Femveratu@reddit
At the moment this seems like posturing to pressure Iran into signing a new nukes deal where it gives up its nuke program.
If Iran outright refuses then we may see some bombs drop.
Trump gave them 60 days.
Do_The_Floof@reddit
We're due..... You know that military industrial complex has to keep churning. Pulled everybody out to rest and refresh.
BasicEnchilada@reddit
Well, when you make umbrellas, you start praying for rain
Youdontknowme1771@reddit
Thy big joke here, is that if we continued supporting Ukraine, we could make lots of weapons, and no U.S. troops need be involved.
ApartPotential6122@reddit
Many Ukrainian men don’t want to continue the war. That’s why there is so many TCC videos kidnapping men from the streets.
I truly believe that westerners have more support for continuing the war than Ukrainian population, especially fighting age males.
Youdontknowme1771@reddit
The only person who wants the war to continue is Putin, unless he gets what he wants...then he'll wait a few years and invade again.
ApartPotential6122@reddit
So not European arms manufacturers? Have you seen the share price of Rheinmetal recently? BAE systems?
jredful@reddit
It’s because MIC is some whacko conspiracy to deflect blame.
Strikes will be on Trump. Trump will have made the decision and any deflection ignores reality.
The cunt is solely to blame.
Do_The_Floof@reddit
I think the powers that be want to like Russia due to its geographical location. You can listen to Trump talking about wanting to acquire Canada and Greenland and kinda see where they're thinking. What's next....... Russia. But maybe they're not ready for all out war with Russia so better to be friendly? IDK I'm just spit balling ideas.
Kjs1108@reddit
When in our lifetime have we ever heard the President talk about acquiring another country? Things are definitely different but I don’t see anyone starting a war. Too much money is being made.
Do_The_Floof@reddit
I agree, typically when they're talking about war they're not thinking about going to war. Could just be a big bluff for negotiating trade agreements. BUT when dealing with Iran you never can be sure. This is the "Death to America" country after all.
Kjs1108@reddit
Very true. My guess is things calm down in a couple of months. I honestly believe it’s about money. Follow the cash.
ARazorbacks@reddit
My opinion is it’s more about shipping lanes being opened up in the Arctic due to climate change.
Do_The_Floof@reddit
Yeah this is a big thing! Cause they're also making a bunch of noise about Panama and the canal. So yeah that makes a lot of sense.
GildedPlunger@reddit
It's both. This administration wants to be more friendly to Russia because the oligarchs in both places want to be able to work together on shipping and resource gathering in the Arctic. Lots of money to be made if two countries friendly with each other control the entire top quarter of the world.
monochromeorc@reddit
more money in keeping russia around as a 'potential' threat than just finishing them off now like they could easily in ukraine
Tiddlemanscrest@reddit
We already are
WhyAreYallFascists@reddit
They needed to keep getting the old missiles used in Ukraine, so they didn’t need to pay to decommission them. Not getting that anymore. Hope we are still replacing them.
wangchungyoon@reddit
It’s War-o’clock - grab your munitions
Meowweredoomed@reddit
These bombs ain't gonna explode themselves!
Human-Entrepreneur77@reddit
If you have a big shiny military the chances are good you will use it.
SomewhereNo8378@reddit
Watch some mass casualty event happens and conveniently is linked to Iran or Iranian allied groups
submariner-mech@reddit
Or it'll be an Iraq style WMD story, but without actually getting shitty intel.... just made up shit with source "trust me bro".... confirmed by Tulsi Gabbard
HeavyExplanation45@reddit
What…you don’t trust me, Bro?
SomewhereNo8378@reddit
That’s more likely because the other option would take major planning and discretion, two things the current admin absolutely cannot manage.
DaddyIsAFireman55@reddit
Iran with the help of Canada, Greenland and Mexico.
Adept_Artichoke7824@reddit
Hegseth has something to prove
GiveAlexAUsername@reddit
Theyve been doing gangbusters replacing bunker busters used to eviscerate little kids recently though
Afraid_Manner_4353@reddit
This would be more about Trump gaining war powers. I expect an incident before April 20th that'll give Trump the excuse he needs.
DEEP_SEA_MAX@reddit
The more the market crashes the higher the chances.
Natahada@reddit
That ☝️
simhadri1987@reddit
The orange donkey in white house will do something crazy about iran. World can't take any more wars.
AsparagusPractical85@reddit
War? No. Strategic bombing of military depots? Certain.
Journeym3n24@reddit
Very likely. There are at least 7 B-2 bombers at Diego Garcia. We don't move those around unless we plan to use them.
Tangodown549@reddit
To add to that we have only 19 b2s in inventory, so that's 1/3rd of the bomber fleet. On top of that the b2 along with the B52 are the only bombers in the U.S. arsenal that can carry the MOP 30,000lb bunker buster.
ludefisk@reddit
This is a realistic question. I'm not a foreign affairs expert, but I would guess that neither is anyone else who has commented here so far.
There seem to be some indications that point to some sort of action in the coming weeks or months in Iran. In late 2024 Israel cleared Syrian air defenses, which followed Israel actions to clear out major Iranian air defenses. Given Israel's other actions in claiming select land in Gaza and (more pertinent the question) Lebanon in recent months, it seems safe to assume that these actions collectively are meant to serve a particular purpose, which experts seem to say would be to create a particular ability to fly over Syria and Iraq in order to strike deep into Iran, turn around, and refuel in air before making it back to Israel. They know that this is a rare moment that allows this.
As the article you've linked to talks about, the US is making it a point to showcase how many B2s it's parking in a specific island that could strike Iran. This doesn't mean the US and Israel share the same goals - President Trump seems more interested in a nuclear deal with Iran than a war and is clearly fine with bluster to drive home a good bargaining position. Israel, of course, is sworn enemies with Iran and may be more likely to strike at Iranian nuclear sites and assume that the US will come to it's side the moment Iran does anything back.
"War" is broad, and so far I haven't seen any reports that ground troops are mobilizing in any of the participating countries. Air assets are where it's at right now.
SlimmThiccDadd@reddit
I’m an international relations major (I work in an unrelated field now) and what’s going on right now is pretty hard to read, expert or not. I’m not saying I’m an expert myself, but I know enough to parse the information together (kinda) from real experts.
We’re dealing with a lot of irrational actors on the world stage. Also, domestic politics aside, there’s clearly more to Trump and Putin’s relationship than we know. I don’t know what that is, but it’s a tough variable to account for.
My armchair quarterback take for fun? I think Trump and Putin are working together to carve up the globe how they see fit. I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin threw Iran under the bus for the ability to more easily take Ukraine. Maybe the US will get open season on the Middle East and the Russians can reclaim their Soviet Bloc in a deranged quid-pro-quo.
Xi could even be involved. He gets Taiwan and then everyone settles down for a couple decades before the real show.
Otherwise_Team5663@reddit
Yalta 2.0
surefirelongshot@reddit
It’s like Putin handed trump ‘the foundation of geo politics’ book, said that happening , back me and you get all of the America’s , I’ll have Europe and what ever of Africa i can hold on to, China will take Asia .
PossumPundit@reddit
I don't think foreign affairs experts would be all that better at figuring any of this out than a well informed non expert when it comes to these guys. There is no underlying rationale to their actions. FA studies are all about trying to figure out what is happening in the Great Game, and while Trump & co are enthusiastic players, they have no understanding of how or why things work. Their actions are unpredictable and they lie constantly.
Secret_Squire1@reddit
People use war interchangeably and without definition. War as in total war or an invasion? Highly unlikely. Iran is surrounded by high mountains forcing airlifts of manpower and logistics. It has a sizable military with substantial anti aircraft batteries and manpads.
Furthermore, Iran can easily mine the strait of Hormuz creating an oil crisis in an overinflated already volatile market. Could the US win a complete invasion scenario? Of course we could, but at what cost?!
What we are seeing is an increasing unpopular and erratic president attempting to not look weak on the global stage. There’s a reason we positioning publicly our military into the region. It’s the send a message and attempt to force Iran to the table. Will Trump actually launch strikes again Iran? Highly plausible. However, it would come in the form of strategic strikes without doing enough damage that Iran lashes out.
Aeuroleus@reddit
War as in a land based invasion and thus the opportunity and objective for regime change in indeed unlikely, Though a Large Scale Tactical Bombing Campaign to be used in order to decapitate Iranian Military Power and discourage further Antagonisms by pure force is, It may even involve a degree of strategic bombing, though precise. I do not see any other path of action considering the commissioning of the B-2 Stealth Strategic bombers for the operation, Deterrence through diplomatic intimidation could be unproductive.
Adept_Artichoke7824@reddit
They can “try” to mine it. The Southern Arabian Gulf is deep enough for submarines which are excellent for anti-mine operations. We will continue to maintain control of the strait. JD Vance was off the mark when he said we had no interest in the Red Sea because it’s mostly European trade. In reality, we transit the Red Sea in order to get to the Persian Gulf. From there, we can strike targets throughout the Middle East. The Iranians have submarines as well but they aren’t great. Their typical MO has been to harrass shipping with small boats and RPG’s, which is quite effective. Lastly, the Saudis own Trump 💯 and he will absolutely continue to keep a military presence in the Gulf.
texteditorSI@reddit
It's 2025, no one is mining shit when you can launch flying lawmowers at boats from the shore
Adept_Artichoke7824@reddit
Yeah, drones have changed warfare bigtime. In fact many of the drones being used by the Russians are made in Iran.
ftp67@reddit
Thank you.
An Iraq style invasion is only happening if Trump's admin is so unbelievably fucked he has to and I don't see that happening.
Why?
As much as I despise this admin I have been equally surprised by how much his bullying is working.
The (controlled) opposition forces in this country crumbled and scurried off to hoard their own wealth and keep their heads down.
Foreign countries bluster a bit then give in to economic threats. Others capitulate verbally. No cavalry is coming.
Iran is many things but they are not stupid, they are also stable economically. They will take their licks, do obviously telegraphed drone or missile strikes with a big heads up to Israel and the US, cede what they need to. There is no need for boots on the ground because the US has mostly won the war against anyone who isn't Russia or China.
Plus these countries have learned the strategy with Trump: give into his ego just enough and he erratically runs off to his next shiny thing. He is throwing darts at a wall right now. It's in their best interest to lay low and he will move on.
Enough-Resolution-70@reddit
Iran is stable economically? That’s quite a stretch…
vlntly_peaceful@reddit
I agree with you, except for that. It's not him who is moving on, but the rest of the world. I think we silently agreed to take steps to decouple from the US, their markets and - speaking for me as an European - their weapons.
America is going to become a pharia state like Russia and North Korea before this decade is over and China will be the leading nation on this planet. They are already filling the gaps the USAID cuts left, the earthquake in Myanmar being the most recent example. Normally you'd except the president to already announce aid for the region. This is US soft power crumbling in real time.
The current administration is too INSANE for any rational acting governments. If you got China, South Korea and Japan agreeing on something, you know they fucked up. The things the Japanese did in China and Korea during WWII makes the holocaust look tame in comparison, and I am not exaggerating.
The next few years are gonna be interesting at least and I wish they wouldn't.
Enough-Resolution-70@reddit
Nice level headed answer. Great to see people still can respond in this sub without dramatizing things.
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Agreed.
Trump has nothing to gain here - I doubt even targeted attacks.
Both Trump and Putin want an agreement between Iran and the U.S.
As a bonus, Trump gaining popularity with his base, including the Israeli right wing gov’t and Netanyahu’s base.
But it will end with an agreement, just like Obama did, but Trump will be able to tell his base he did it through force and not weakness.
Afraid_Manner_4353@reddit
Trump will cancel the Elections due to a war emergency. He has EVERYTHING to gain.
Secret_Squire1@reddit
This theory doesn’t make sense. Any type of war with Iran would crater the global economy including the United States. Why would he do this so early on in his administration if that was his goal? If we were a year out before the new election it would make sense.
AU_Memer@reddit
Tariffs alone will crater the economy, it's clear Trump won't survive the midterms so they've got reason to seize further power.
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Trump doesn’t need this in order to cancel the elections (plus not sure he could even if he wanted to).
He has a lot of easier paths to his third endless term without this.
GiveAlexAUsername@reddit
But have you considered that mossad has all the videos of trump diddling kids on epstein island?
WhirlWindBoy7@reddit
Full scale war won't happen between the U.S. and Iran. Iran is difficult to land and invade. It would have made more sense 10 years ago when significant U.S. troops were in Afghanistan and Iraq. However, i think it's a near certainty that a significant bombing campaign by the U.S. to destroy Iran nuclear capabilities and reduce the IRG capabilities will occur within the next 6 months.
Tricky-Ad992@reddit
Iran has already prepared itself after nasrallah's death in bunker. I bet the islamic regime is extremely paranoid regarding this and safeguarding themselves with extreme measures. The significant missile production factories are buried deep underground which are out of any bomb's range, unlike compared to Nasrallah's bunker
WhirlWindBoy7@reddit
All very true. I just suspect Mossad and the U.S. has also been preparing with intelligence gathering, assets in Iran in place, unconventional warfare, and possibly even a plan to counter Iran. I think the first stage of the plan would be to heavily reduce Irans anti air measures, followed by a significant bombing campaign (days or weeks), and some small but direct special ops on the ground in Iran. I also think though Israel’s attack last year was partially to gauge and probe Irans defenses and counter measures. Same with Iran and its proxies towards Israel though.
Tricky-Ad992@reddit
Tbh I am pro Iran guy but mossad did an impressive work in weakening axis of resistance. Those guys know everything within , everyone expected 2024 war with lebanon for israel to be more deadly then 2006 for israel , but in returned something else happened. Mossad certainly knows where the anti ship cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones locations are there and can airstrike the launching locations anytime before they are launched, however they would require significant logistics and time for that, cuz us aircraft carriers cannot just directly stay in Iranian waters, and surely missiles aren't exactly launched from coast but deep inside . Shit would take time to reach and airstrike to location of launching. For the join intelligence by cia and mossad, I bet they surely have gathered necessary intel and location for it. But i guess it would be more of a 'show of force' rather then actual bombing campaign, the most worse then bombing could do is put islamic republic's big weapons accessibility and manufacturing in a temporary dissray for 2-5 months, 7 months Max. A entire decimation would require a full scale bombing campaign much much much bigger then serbia or iraq. Or even a full scale invasion
WhirlWindBoy7@reddit
Yeah I’m certainly not pro Iran but I also don’t care for Israel’s treatment and lack of working towards a two state solution with the Palestinians. Unfortunately Trump is a lunatic and Netanyahu seems to have Trump by the balls for some reason. Hopefully everyone stands down but I feel like Trump and Netanyahu are moving more towards escalation. Im curious what the countries in the region that arn’t aligned with Iran do. Do Saudi and Jordan let the U.S. operate from the bases within their countries? Do they retaliate economically against the U.S. and Israel, etc.
Tricky-Ad992@reddit
Trump sits in bed with Netanyahu. Notice no matter who comes in power in usa, israel is never affected, why is usa pampering a foreign country!? Plus Netanyahu wants escalation to prevent jail and stay in power. They are neither truly jewish nor christian. And the sauds aren't innocent too, they funded the jihadists . The moment America gets rid of AIPAC the middle east would be heaven
Low-House-43@reddit
Thats all the om of israel wants, him and his people paid over 200 million for it.
freedomfrylock@reddit
Not going to happen. Trump is all talk.
Tricky-Ad992@reddit
I don't think that orange dickhead is "all talk". After solemani's assasination
DuckworthSockins@reddit
Well, I can verify that there have been some WIARNG (combat engineers) being pulled to active and sent to the “Middle East”. It’s either happening this month or is already in effect
DavidMeridian@reddit
I think a military strike against strategic targets by Israel, US, or both, has at least a 20% chance of occurring w/in the next few weeks.
MezcalFlame@reddit
Probably to distract from the tariffs pain...
stalequeef69@reddit
Definitely maybe
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Israeli here.
Israeli media is in full “wishful thinking mode”, and people here have this fantasy that Trump is so full on pro-Israel that he will fight all our wars.
In the meantime if you look closely he has bent Netanyahu over.
My take is that the “preparations” are just a negotiation tactic. Both Trump and Putin want an agreement with Iran.
I would wager the odds of an attack are close to zero.
As an Israeli I would actually prefer there would be an attack (despite the price I would personally have to pay) but I still doubt it will happen.
I don’t see what Trump has to gain from it.
RaisedByHoneyBadgers@reddit
Except for the last part where you want Armageddon, I agree with your analysis. Odd feeling as an anti-Zionist to find a point of agreement with an Israeli.
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Common sense is common sense, and I’d agree the last part in my comment sounds like nonsense :-)
The reason I want the conflict - in hopes it makes more sense or if you’re curious:
Iran will retaliate like they did with israel: 6-8 attacks so they can show their people they did something and that will be it.
Israel will be attacked but we will survive it like we did last time.
It will buy us more time without a nuclear Iran.
Of course IF I’m right here, our disagreement will remain that this will support the Zionist state which I understand you would be against.
But I’m also assuming (and hoping) you’d rather see the Zionist problem solved in a peaceful way rather than a nuclear bomb.
Buttons840@reddit
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Historical_Visual874@reddit
I'm guessing the chance is pretty good. I mean, we know that we bombed Yemen (thanks to Signal Gate). We know he wants to take over Gaza, & we know the stock market is tanking. He's getting tired of everyone questioning his motives. So yeah, it's time to act like a toddler & start throwing his toys. That being said, this will remain likely unless somebody else strikes us 1st.
igloohavoc@reddit
Is remote bombing really war?
No ground troops, so no real loss for USA.
LiveReplicant@reddit
Probably isn't war per say but for the innocent women and children who will die but it doesn't matter what it's called I suppose
igloohavoc@reddit
So not war, more like remote tsctical action
StrudelCutie1@reddit
Yeah, so they can use Signal for planning!
igloohavoc@reddit
That ok, we will know when they strike & how.
djinniofthelamp@reddit
Simple rule i follow when looking at rhetoric, follow the logistics. Most major or decisive action cannot happen without some level of preparation. Preparation isn't free to do. The US has 20 known B-2 bombers. A full third of those were just moved thousands of miles alongside countless other systems and entire carrier strike group. That sort of move (in my mind) goes beyond intimidation tactics.
With alarming rhetoric, take a look at the PAI on moving systems, people, fuel, blood etc. It is difficult to completely mask things like that in the modern era and there are countless diligent OSINT content creators that will report on moves well ahead of traditional media.
improbablydrunknlw@reddit
The US Army's largest MRE manufacturer has apparently been working full shift, morning and night. It was posted in one of the weekly threads and I'll see if I can find it.
crushedcone@reddit
Polymarket has the odds of US military action in April vs Iran at 9%
1one14@reddit
20% IMO
FitEntertainment490@reddit
First off all Russia is a joke militarily. Ukraine is holding its own against them 3 years later. Most of Russias most experienced soldiers. Officers. Pilots etc are dead. Ukraine with just a handful of older versions of American and western weapons and aircraft have Ben enough to hammer Russia, Irans government is completely dependent on oil revenue, so they have 4 major oil facilities. Those can be all taken out in one night easily. Once the money is cut off. It’s a wrap
jadelink88@reddit
Actual war, unlikely. Repeated airstrikes, very likely.
VX-Cucumber@reddit
The next depression, a new war, and destruction of checks and balances. Thanks Republicans, you really made America great!
radishwalrus@reddit
I don't think the military industrial complex will be able to convince enough people to get the war going. If Afghanistan didn't happen I'd say definitely but it did.
UmweltUndefined@reddit
I think not very likely. GOP has wanted to attack Iran badly since Bush. There’s a reason they haven’t. Iran is much smarter diplomatically and stronger militarily than Iraq, syria, etc. of course the us would eventually win but the cost is much higher than what anyone wants to pay. The build up is mainly about forcing more talks, which Trump himself gave then a dead line of late May to start. I expect there will be some last minute talks that let them both save face
Misfits9119@reddit
Not likely at all. The US would take months deploying its forces strategically. Operation desert shield in 1990 took approximately 5 months to deploy the troops. It took a month for coalition troops to deploy in 2003 when they invaded Iraq the second time - many of the core infrastructure was already present in 2003 to get the troops into place.
Realistically... It would probably take a minimum of 3 months to prepare for a war against Iran if the US started today.
Remember there's a difference between waging a bombing campaign and waging war.
illinoisteacher123@reddit
War? 0.0%
Sst6214@reddit
With all the tariffs economy will tank unless there is war
Tosinone@reddit
EXACTLY. Same happened with Russia after Covid. They needed that war badly to push the economy or economic decline onto something.
zaevilbunny38@reddit
The goal is to trigger Iran to hit Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. If that happens Israel gets to clear Gaza and Putin gets whatever he wants from Europe in exchange for most of Ukraine, plus the US gets the blame
BarfyOBannon@reddit
what do you mean by “war with Iran”?
GreatBigBellyFlop@reddit
I think it’s pretty high since he will need a distraction as the stock market goes into the toilet tomorrow. This strategy is on page 1 of his playbook. Flood the zone.
renegadeindian@reddit
Depends on depends. If he has a full load and sit down and splatters everything he will have a fit and could order planes into the air. If he is dry and the rash lotion is working he could slow down. That’s what is controlling America
mikels_burner@reddit
The most peaceful president in the history of universes & planets! Wow he's SOOOP PEACEFUL! I can't get enough of this amazing PEACE, I feel like I'm meditating when I think about the peace that we have achieved cuz of the most peaceful president in the history of histories & stuff
MANEWMA@reddit
No invasion is happening...
6gv5@reddit
At this point it seems quite possible. Israel demands it, and it would have the very convenient side effect of deflecting international attention from the US internal issues, the Palestinians genocide and the war in Ukraine.
asdfredditusername@reddit
There’s nothing like a war to distract people from what’s happening at home.
1cg659z@reddit
Let me see if I've been added to any Signal chats on the matter and get back to you.
Tweaky_Tweakum@reddit
Journalists will likely relay what the defense secretary is sending them about this on the Signal app.
Zealousideal_Scene62@reddit
Signs seem to be pointing to an air campaign against nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure, but not boots on the ground necessarily (yet?).
pirate40plus@reddit
War, as in ground troops and invasion, absolutely not. Iranian vessels and aircraft venturing too close to shipping and being blown up followed by ground strikes, 100%.
The Arab world isn’t exactly friendly with Iran but wouldn’t support an invasion.
triptip05@reddit
Depending on what he does be will have to be careful.
Pakistan (Nuclear weapons)
And
Türkiye (NATO membership)
Both share a border with Iran.
Kill_Basterd@reddit
Is it really a war if we drone strike them and they never do anything to us because there’s an entire sea?
Strng_Satisfaction@reddit
Probably going to do it to deflect from tanking the economy.
Inquisitionfire@reddit
3%
dbboldrick@reddit
I feel it is very high , trump people are incompetent.
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
Very unlikely. Iran is far more poor than anyone wants to admit, and the US is a behemoth.
Lazy_Panda3575@reddit
Couldn’t be more wrong
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
Ok, I'll play:
Iran isn’t built for a real war against a country like the U.S. Their economy is in shambles—crippled by sanctions, runaway inflation, and a weak currency. Their military budget is tiny in comparison, and they don’t have the tools for large-scale combat: no modern air force, limited navy, and weak logistics. They rely on drones, missiles, and proxy groups because that’s what they can afford. At best, Iran can stir up regional chaos, but they’re in no shape to confront the US in any sort of head-on war.
Prove me wrong.
texteditorSI@reddit
Oh look, the same like of reasons people gave why NATO-backed Ukraine would crush Russia
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
This response is nonsense. It makes no sense when my argument is basically saying that Iran is the Ukraine in this situation?!?!?
texteditorSI@reddit
No, I'm saying all those same things were said about Russia, and it didn't matter. Russia has been 2 weeks away from total economic collapse for 3 years now and counting.
Also Russia's tiny GDP and military spending compared to NATO was pointed out as reasons they could not beat Ukraine, then it turned out that Russia is still producing more munitions in 3 months than the US and 28 partner nations produce in a year, combined.
Low military spending doesn't matter as much when you aren't farming out all production to private companies that charge 2000% markup and refuse to spend money expanding capacity to maximize profits
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
None of this makes any sense. Russia has never had "low" military spending, and what are you talking about comparing it against NATO, which Ukraine doesn't belong to?
Dude you are way too all over the place.
Russia hasn't ever fought Nato, so what the hell are you talking about comparing it to Nato for?
Just stop.
Accomplished_Rip_362@reddit
They are not poor enough to pursue development of nukes. Thus, they need to be made poorer.
Relative_Business_81@reddit
You from Earth or somewhere else where an Iran is some sort of global superpower?
Tight-Bumblebee495@reddit
How poor is Iran next to Afghanistan, for example?
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
Iran has 30x the economy of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan had a bunch of warlords. Iran has a centralized government.
You can fight "the" army in a place like India. You couldn't in Afghanistan.
FacebookNewsNetwork@reddit
The US loves making war on poor people. It’s one of our favorite things to do.
TheCIAandFBI@reddit
So there is a small trade of bombs. "War" is a LOT more than just a little bit of bombing.
roger3rd@reddit
But the USA avoids direct war with rich nations
TurboWalrus007@reddit
As do all the other rich nations. Shit rolls down hill, not sideways.
phovos@reddit
War is 100% inevitable (its ongoing) but war with Iran is questionable. I wouldn't be surprised if we are actually building up forces to assist Israel in its planned missions on Syria and Lebanon and their likley missions in Sinai, Egypt.
FayrayzF@reddit
Honestly Israel doesn't even need help for Syria, lebanon and Sinai, but they do for Iran
WrathPie@reddit
It sucks so bad that that is, in many ways, the best case scenario
phovos@reddit
I didn't mention the fact that I secretly think Diego Garcia is not out of range of Iran, even if it is out of range of the Houthi in Yemen. As are the positions of 50,000 sitting duck ground troops peppered throughout the region in indefensible locations.
submariner-mech@reddit
They've already got the long range refueling planes in Diego too... range isn't an issue
phovos@reddit
No I mean its not out of range of Iranian strikes. Hypersonics can go way further than 4k kilometers; they fly at 10+ mach above the mass of the atmosphere; if you can get-up there going that fast, getting a few thousand more kilometers is fairly trivial and doesn't require massively larger fueltanks and whatever.
submariner-mech@reddit
They'll be ballistic missiles, not true hypersonics, patriots can deal with those... and that's not even mentioning AEGIS or THAAD... Diego will almost certainly be safe from Iranian attacks
phovos@reddit
Lol, you just mentioned all the unclassified shit that everyone knows doesn't work because of True Promise 2 on Nevatim.
submariner-mech@reddit
Lol I'm not a gamer bruv, not following your references 😆
phovos@reddit
Wow that's hillarious. Nevatim is the central airbase in Israel; it ain't a video game, man.
submariner-mech@reddit
Lmao 🤣 I literally just glanced and saw "True Promise 2 on Nevatim", was not thinking israel ... legit sounds like a gaming platform
phovos@reddit
History altering 'just a ballistic missile' attack on the organs of the imperialist apparatus in west Asia but stay blessed, champ.
submariner-mech@reddit
? Now you're getting weird lol... I'm not down playing the destruction of "just a ballisitic", just the definition of 'hypersonic missile' and ability to intercept.... so far Russia, China, India and USA are developing 'hypersonics', but none have been fully put into service... a lot of ballistic missiles travel at hypersonic speeds, but aren't considered a 'hypersonic missile' , with the ability to change trajectory making flight path difficult to predict.... whereas a ballisitic missile has a predictable flight path, especially in the terminal phase, thus much easier to intercept
phovos@reddit
Its more about the ability to not melt, than anything. But here is a decent Rocket Scientist explaining how USA weapons have finally-been bested. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=baAIgkwhCDc
Iran and Russia signed a 30 year military economic partnership earlier this year, btw. No telling what Russia paid for the tens of thousands of Iranian drones, but a couple missiles and a couple operators doesn't seem out of the question.. I wonder how many China has made, so far?
Nemisis_the_2nd@reddit
If that were the case, surely it would make more sense for the aircraft to be parked near the Mediterranean, not the middle of the Indian ocean.
phovos@reddit
Where, Cypress? Turkey and Russia would freak out.
OptimismNeeded@reddit
??
????
wangchungyoon@reddit
Trunk won’t stop sucking Putin’s dick long enough to actually do anything other than poke the bear — he’s cuck’d
Long-Time-lurker-1@reddit
Keep an eye on flight radar. Theres too much stuff moving to the middle east to be regarded as just posturing. B2s are in Deago Garcia, F16s, F35s and even A10s are moving into the middle east.
I would say we are in the pre game.
PhDinDildos_Fedoras@reddit
Bombings sure, for a land war you'd need six months to a year of ro-ro traffic and large staging areas for tanks.
cjdna@reddit
Next few weeks? Unlikely. Next few months? Strong possibility.
YeetedApple@reddit
The deadline from Trump's letter runs out sometime in early May, so next month is likely the earliest unless something drastic happens between now and then.
FayrayzF@reddit
INB4 we get Pearl Harbour part 2 in Chagos
cjdna@reddit
Another important question is the extent to which Trump can control Netanyahu.
Effective-Ad-6460@reddit
0%
This sub really needs to crack down on fear mongering
azurite--@reddit
Tbh I remember seeing the same exact language about Russia preparing to invade Ukraine.
Effective-Ad-6460@reddit
check back in a year when nothing has happened
Relative_Business_81@reddit
Probably more than 0% but less than 5%. Either way the offensive would be over in a couple weeks and the occupation would last over a decade with no clear goals. Nothing to worry or prep for unless you live in Iran.
Effective-Ad-6460@reddit
It's literally never going to happen
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Hey look, common sense. What are you doing on reddit? ;-)
Effective-Ad-6460@reddit
Never heard of this common sense you speak of 🤔
Emotional-Rise5322@reddit
I’ll take that bet.
Effective-Ad-6460@reddit
Remind yourself 1 year
thermometerbottom@reddit
Has anyone texted them about it?
tadisco@reddit
Anyone get added to the Iran bros PC chat?
NumbEngineer@reddit
Iran bombed israel and no major war has broken out. To me that's just crazy to me. I have no idea what's going to happen if the back and fourth strikes between iran and Israel didn't immediately break out into a full war.
AU_Memer@reddit
Israel didn't have the backing they have now so going through with it then would not have turned out well.
popthestacks@reddit
Can’t hide logistics.
Bilbo_Bagseeds@reddit
If Iran doesn't do exactly what he wants, probably pretty likely
I don't get why but the line of what is acceptable without declaring war has gotten pushed pretty far in modern conflicts. Iran fires salvos of missiles at Israel, Israel bombs embassies and strikes deep within Iran and no war. I think the US bombing a bunch of shit without a committed invasion is pretty likely
JoshuasOnReddit@reddit
With this administration, ww3 is imminent
GoLoveYourselfLA@reddit
We ain’t staging B2s and their assorted entourage in DG for gits n shiggles
Rabbit-Hole-Quest@reddit
If they start talking to you about fighting a war with Iran, you treat them like an enemy that they are.
They are not on your side and nobody wants to fight any more wars in the Middle East.
LodossDX@reddit
US allies are buying less arms from us, so a war is due any day now. Government will need to buy more arms and aircraft from defense contractors to make up for the global sales slump.
twzill@reddit
At least 6 B-2 bombers have recently been repositioned to a military base on the island in the Indian Ocean according to CNN and the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike group has been ordered to the Middle East. Doesn’t necessarily mean war but the threat is there if needed.
JohnBrownEnthusiast@reddit
Really low because the Peace Candidate has taken power. :) Everything will be good comrade, soon whole world speaks American. *
TurkeyMalicious@reddit
I'm no expert but....I think there will be limited strikes. Enough to make a show of things, but nothing substantial. If I understand what I've read, a lot of what they sent to Bahrain was patriot missile infrastructure. They would be there to try to stop any retaliatory ballistic missile attacks from Iran...probably headed toward Israel.
ComingInSideways@reddit
My opinion, reasonable high. Whenever a countries gov’t wants to distract from internal turmoil, they start a war somewhere. It is a not so subtle agenda, that plays out again and again.
Is it a certainty…. No. However a highly overmatched opponent and with enough distance that the news narrative can be spun, is the point with these.
GOAL: Keep the news so clogged with shit, so as to prevent the public from reacting in any unified way. The more separate social agendas that are under attack the better.
TL;DR sow chaos.
numinosaur@reddit
Also, war abroad adds fear, fear that can distract from or justify even more draconic measures at home
leathemustache@reddit
draconian, but yeah you're right
ComingInSideways@reddit
Yes, absolutely. As we have seen in the past with expanding scope of surveillance and power for certain agencies.
As well as stoking blind nationalism, as we saw Putin doing to shore up support for his “special military operation”.
DJBombba@reddit
100% agree
To distract turmoil at home is to start a war abroad
LongDongSilverDude@reddit
We've been at war with Iran for Years what are you talking about???
Faroutman1234@reddit
Israel will probably attack some nuke sites but the US will not be involved unless Iran goes after Israel in a big way. Iran has over a million man army so it would not be a walk in the park. They are also more motivated and better educated than most middle east countries.
IntoTheMirror@reddit
Remember, strikes don’t necessarily mean war. We sunk their whole navy in a series of strikes over eight hours in 1988 and that was just a one off. (Operation Praying Mantis).
C0matoes@reddit
Doesn't the legislative branch declare war? Oh, that's right, we gave them a 4 year vacation.
tecky1kanobe@reddit
Only airstrikes, no mobilization of large units yet. Any other suggestion is pure speculation or bordering on divulging sensitive information. If you really want to know hit up Hegseth in Signal, tell him Tim referred you.
fastcat03@reddit
Dunno let me check my signal chat...
TaikaSuru92@reddit
Serious question:
Is there a subreddit where there's discussion that does not have the usual tough guy talk and insults? Like I would like to find a subreddit where there are serious, detailed discussions of world events that does not devolve to the usual "because he's vladdy's lil bitch."
Like yeah, I get it I can't stand any of them either, but still, it's so fucking cringe having to constantly see someone making comments like this on nearly every subreddit that has political discussions. Yes, I know it's Reddit, but still, it's so annoying constantly having to see comments that are essentially low effort and karma farming. I am aware my comment is ironic pointing this out, but still, my sentiment remains.
Thoraxe474@reddit
More than 0
NoEvidence136@reddit
Less than 100
trashhactual@reddit
I’d say somewhere between
traplords8n@reddit
My comment here brings nothing to the conversation
Booster-Zip@reddit
My comment brings even less to the conversation
PalePhilosophy2639@reddit
I can’t find my car
Gunderberg@reddit
Wheres patric?
traplords8n@reddit
I can't hear you, it's too dark inside of this screen
Gunderberg@reddit
That smells too loud for me to comment on
Coolest_Breezy@reddit
Big if true.
Far_Connection_9340@reddit
Less than equal to 100.
LatterAdvertising633@reddit
I’m getting a Signal account so that I can get an answer for you.
MoistGeologist357@reddit
I would say it depends on how the economy is doing. The worse the greater the chance we go to war with Iran.
bluddystump@reddit
As soon as Iran is attacked, Taiwan will be also.
ApprehensiveBoot3149@reddit
As serious as Panama was three weeks ago, Venezuela two weeks ago, Greenland last week
Physical_Carrot_6283@reddit
This may help…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fAnNJW9_KYA
They’ve been trying to do this for a while now
trxvvrci@reddit
I really really doubt it.
switchquest@reddit
Iran being allies of Putin, this would anger Trumps boss no? So I doubt it.
Imaginary-Swing-4370@reddit
WHISKEY PETE IS A CLOWN.
AdditionalAd9794@reddit
It's not a war, it's just a military operation
PersiusAlloy@reddit
Very unlikely. Stop reading the warmongering.
Chemical-Shallot-964@reddit
Please not with the chuckleheads currently in office.
Dry-Interaction-1246@reddit
Kegsbreath will whiskeyleak it. He doesn't care if our pilots or troops die.
ShihPoosRule@reddit
I’d say not likely as Trump has been warned about the enormous negative economic fallout such would create. Expect a lot of bluster to distract from his disastrous start, but the people he owes billions to have likely told him no.
NoticerofPatterns@reddit
Whenever Israel makes the call. I'm just wondering who they'll have us fight next or if we'll just be 'peacekeeping' as Israel expands.
justmekpc@reddit
Zero as Iran supplies trumps boss putins drones it’s just another distraction
Vabluegrass@reddit
Can't you just ask Hegseth on Signal?
NeverThe51st@reddit
Intelligence officers were on the ground months ago working with different factions to ready what they'll call a a coo.
Infamous-Insect-8908@reddit
There will definitely be a bombing campaign during Trump’s term. All of the signs are there and Iran are now extremely vulnerable. If you look at the actions of Israeli’s, everything they have been doing to the ‘axis of resistance’ has been to allow a strike on Iran with fewer consequences for themselves. They have crippled the Hezbollah leadership structure, killed or wounded thousands of their fighters and have destroyed many of their missile launching sites. They have utterly decimated Hamas as a fighting force. Most importantly they have taken out Syrian air defence and the Syrian Air Force so they now have an air corridor to launch strikes into Iran.
All this means that America and Israel can strike the nuclear sites in the knowledge that the militias don’t have the strength to resist.
I though Trump may have waited until after the 2026 World Cup to bomb them, but it seems like they are doing a speed run.
stevendogood@reddit
Trump doesn't like fully committing to anything. He just likes talking. Occasionally he will do something but only half assed. Like his half assed coup attempt on 1/6/21.
He might bomb them and then forget about it and go golfing while his staff figure out a peace deal.
tritiatedpear@reddit
I’m waiting for a random chat invite from the intelligence community to get clarification on this
No_Party5870@reddit
I am sure we will hear about it before it happens with the lax security protocols being used.
jcducky12@reddit
We now have enough military assets in the middle Eastern theater to operate. That being said any day now we will see an escalation.
First_Jello7340@reddit
Whatever it is we can't control it, try not to let it play on your mind
Ok-Calligrapher9115@reddit
Truth is, no one knows. Unpredictable.
Emotional-Rise5322@reddit
Check signal.
Logical-Ad-57@reddit
What's a few? Three? Below 1%. Six? Below 5%. Twenty? Probably still 20% or so. You can't trust anything the bosses are saying right now because of how fundamentally dishonest they are.
Ant0n61@reddit
Trump is going to Saudi in May.
So some point after that trip bombs may fly.
Smooth_Project2781@reddit
Personally, I'd say it's probably at a 6/10 right now.
Based on the B2 bombers and aircraft carriers being repositioned, it suggests preparation for potential escalation.
Iran is also refusing direct talks tensions with its proxies (the Houthis) are boiling
Both sides are still signaling interest in indirect diplomacy and avoiding full-scale war for the moment.
So it's a dangerous moment, but in my opinion, not a guaranteed flash point–yet.
Grungy_Mountain_Man@reddit
I don't know but I don't trust Trump to keep us out of a war.
PerspectiveDue5403@reddit
Over the few weeks 0 over a year I’d say 30% at least for a few bombardments (not full fledged war)
Sea-Replacement-8794@reddit
There are 6 B-2 bombers and like 10 tanker aircraft on the tarmac on Diego Garcia right now. I don’t think Trump has the patience to just use them as a show of force. That’s a lot of expense just moving them there
MrStickDick@reddit
I don't know, but my gut tells me, "Maybe".
kirksmith626@reddit
Doubtful, unless Iran takes direct action against the US. Although, the president here has authority, given from Congress, to pretty much take unilateral action as Commander in Chief for up to 60 days for use of armed forces, with an additional 30 days for a withdrawal from the conflict under the War Powers Resolution.
The Congress's real power is funding, although they have the seats necessary to fund whatever war project is happening.
Danjohnson857@reddit
Considering how they like to false start bluster and brag about what they’re “gonna” do, I think they’re too cowardly to finally bring about the third world war
I’ll believe it when I see it
Fold-Statistician@reddit
Possible. The Trump-Netenyahu connection is strong. Cue to the detention of student protestors in favor of Palestine, the threats to Gaza and the attacks on freedom of speech. I think Trump really wants a war while he has congress, because that would give him a lot more power and Iran is pretty far for most people to care. The fact that it can't defend itself is an advantage because they can keep declaring "victories" and asking for more power.
I would guess around 60%. The bottleneck is the negotiations in congress in support of the war declaration. They could also be waiting for Iran to take the bait or for a false flag operation.
Aggravating_Junket77@reddit
Surprised it hasn't happened sooner.