Do you think a significant amount of people will abandon Windows once win10 support ends?
Posted by thepolanon@reddit | linux | View on Reddit | 67 comments
DRAK0FR0ST@reddit
No.
This discussion is raised every time a Windows version is going to be discontinued, and there has never been a mass exodus.
Zookvuglop@reddit
Windows versions eats itself. The charts prove this every time a new version is released as they upgrade to the next version. No exodus, just upgrading.
TheNinthJhana@reddit
And to be honnest windows 11 has some nice features. My job laptop went to windows 11 and I finally have a file explorer with tabs. And nice ui details. Desktop is much more friendly.
burritolikethesun@reddit
Wow a file explorer with tabs!!!!!
Objective-Stranger99@reddit
This was taken from Linux file managers. Even the brightness slider in Windows was taken from KDE Plasma.
TheNinthJhana@reddit
Yeah I know 20 years late :0
mrtruthiness@reddit
What you say is true, but I think there will be more moving this time.
Why? Because Microsoft has unnecessarily high HW requirements for this abandonment. While the requirement for Win11 is really TPMv2, that generally means that devices that are Intel Gen 7 and earlier won't run Windows 11. This is still really good hardware.
AVonGauss@reddit
You can install Windows 11 on systems that don't mean the official requirements.
Pending1@reddit
True, but average users aren't about to use a bunch of hacky workarounds to upgrade to Win 11 any more than they're going to install Linux. They'll just do what they always do: use the current version of Windows regardless of whether or not it's EOL, then upgrade when they buy new hardware with the current version pre-installed..
AVonGauss@reddit
No, I mean you can literally take the Windows 11 ISO from Microsoft and without modification install it on systems that don't meet the official requirements.
mrtruthiness@reddit
At this point it has to be an "install" and not an "upgrade/update". For Windows users that is "a hacky workaround".
It will be "unsupported" and may not be eligible to receive windows security updates. Other aspects surrounding full disk encryption (is that now default on Win11?) might be broken and/or might cause issues.
AVonGauss@reddit
All that said, I wasn't making a "Windows vs Linux" argument. I was pointing out that the Windows 11 hardware requirements in practice aren't going to be a big factor in motivating people to migrate to a Linux Desktop.
One of the bigger motivators since Windows 10 that got people to give the Linux Desktop a try was Microsoft's self-destructive obsession with telemetry. However, over the last couple of years more Linux based projects have been adopting telemetry, some aggressively, which will likely lead to even less interest in migrating.
DRAK0FR0ST@reddit
People will keep using Windows 10, Windows XP maintained a high user base years after it reached EoL, most users don't understand the security risks, or simply don't care.
mrtruthiness@reddit
Really? I would not have expected that.
DRAK0FR0ST@reddit
https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/microsoft/its-windows-xps-20th-birthday-and-way-too-many-still-use-it/
mrtruthiness@reddit
For everyone who wanted a quick TL;DR: WindowsXP usage was 0.59% of Windows users in Sept 2021. That's way too many given how long it has been unsupported. What was possibly even more disturbing was the 14.8% of Windows7 users where support ended in Jan 2020.
I helped my (very old) mother upgrade from Windows7 to Windows10 in 2019 --- I must say that Microsoft made it very easy. I also migrated her to a new machine running Windows 11 (pro) with full disk encryption in March 2023.
Few_Philosopher_905@reddit
Came here looking for the mention of the elephant in the room - TPM support (or lack thereof in older hardware). While you'd think that this would push people to alternative platforms, I think the average consumer will just be replacing their hardware with newer hardware. Most people are creatures of habit, they've known and used Windows for however many years, and will likely not deviate from that environment. Even if it entails purchasing a new several hundred to thousand dollar machine.
Glum_Size892@reddit
It's an Operating System and a good one, just like MacOS, I wish people like when Billie Eilish roasted bing, would consider how great each one of them are (I have all of them: MacOS, iOS, Ubuntu, Windows, Android, Windows Phone when it came out)
Glum_Size892@reddit
Now Visual Studio is going 1 millon directions and I'm trying to find a straightforward way to accomplish one + one, where if Windows Phone had stayed I wouldn't have this problem, and MAUI would be much better than it currently is.....
Glum_Size892@reddit
Let me give you a straighforward answer: Windows is being dismantled by platforms like Android and Apple. Half is the advertising, one half is people favoring programming the platforms (because of popularity), last half is Microsoft's failure of Windows Phone, and people feeling that Windows has antiquated. As a result: Microsoft is going all in on their business presence, making Microsoft 365 as the main focus of their operating system, and hiding behind big enterprise and office workers. And all this would have been different if people would have given Windows mobile a chance instead of going for the bling.
udum2021@reddit
One thing is sure, even if its true these people will not switch to Linux, Linux is not and has never been ready for desktop.
MadHatter_5-HT@reddit
do u live under a rock u have u have governments using linux on all their computers u have ubuntu arch manjaro popos and fedora that are desktop ready out the box im sure there are more than that
Tuor-of-Gondolin@reddit
Unless windows 12 is better than 10, I am going to go to fedora when it loses support. I already use fedora for my laptop and it is one of the cleanest out of the box experiences I have had with an operating system.
MadHatter_5-HT@reddit
give manjaro linux a look
BulkyMix6581@reddit
No. Linux will gain more traction if popular apps can run on Linux (adobe suite, MS office etc.) Also when every single windows game can run on Linux hassle free and without noticeable performance penalty. I don't like it, but that's the way it is. Average Joe used MS office all hil life and he won't use libre office. Also gamers need to install and run a game which isn't always easy without tinkering on Linux. Also Nvidia, AMD give full fledged drivers for their products (Nvidia drivers, Adrenaline drivers etc) while on Linux the extra features are not there... Finally there are no overclocking tools on Linux i.e. AMD gives Ryzen Master on Windows but not on Linux. Without those apps Linux (desktop) cannot increase its user base.
MadHatter_5-HT@reddit
asking for msoffice to run on something other than microsoft windows lol overclocking is dead there is 0 need to overclock now a days i have a 7950x and even running the most demanding software and games i dont use 20% of it plus if i was to overclock id do it thru the bios. games run just fine on linux i dont jump thru hoops and here is the kicker devs are about to have to make games work with linux as the SteamOS is Arch Linux so for it to work on the steam deck it has to work on a linux machine my frame rates are higher and my resource use is lower than my windows machines
AVonGauss@reddit
OneDrive at this point is probably a bigger driver of Microsoft 365 subscriptions than the office applications.
amboredentertainme@reddit
Nope, people won't stop using windows until a) the big games and software (for example call of duty, fortnite, photoshop, office) can be run on linux and mainstream OEMs in the likes of Dell, HP, Asus, etc start selling consumer grade pcs and laptops that come with linux pre installed.
MadHatter_5-HT@reddit
can already b done libre office and i can play any game on steam Manjaro Linux which is Arch Linux the same one SteamOs is based on
pedersenk@reddit
No, they never will. Not in our lifetime.
Inertia is a very slow and stable thing.
WitherTech@reddit
You do realize that there are still huge amounts of computers in industry that still run dos? Kobol is a very valuable language to learn right now for all the ancient machines that never got upgraded because they just never saw the need, despite the major security issue with using something that old.
kidz94@reddit
Sheep will be sheep even if the field changes.
MatchingTurret@reddit
4 years ago: Death of Windows 7. Should we expect a lot of new Linux users?
Pending1@reddit
A few years from today: Will the death of Windows 11, should we expect an increase in Linux users?
CrankyTechDad@reddit
Well, Linux just reached 3%; however, often when people give it a shot, they are scared off by the cult-like mentality of the community itself. Not always, but a lot of the time!
Pending1@reddit
No
harrywwc@reddit
probably not.
most offices are "Microsoft Office" (or whatever the hell they want to call it this week) compatible.
that really narrows the field down to WinOS or MacOS.
most consumers use whatever came on the machine when they bought it.
there is a shedload of inertia in desktop land.
PeepoChadge@reddit
People are much more likely to switch to mac or chromeOs than linux, if that's what you really mean.
dinosaursdied@reddit
There won't be a mass exodus but we will see some new users.
Gerb006@reddit
No I don't think they will abandon it. And I'm not a Windows user at all. But I do recognize that most people don't care and will use whatever comes on the machine and new machines are almost exclusively shipped with Windows. Most people also want consistency. They want what they are used to and what everyone else is using (Windows). Even though I don't use it and I think it is an inferior system, I think people will continue to use it just as they always have.
Waterrat@reddit
No. This question has been asked every time a new Windows comes out. People are afraid of things that are different and they see Linux distros as being different...Some people will go to Apple and some will go to Linux distros,but most will stay with what they know and trust..Same for us,every five years,I have a chance to go back to Winbdws,or get a Mac,but I don't.
Dry-Tradition8267@reddit
Honestly idk, I personally did it for this reason but I think many people are scared of Linux or don’t event know what it is and will keep being on Windows.
eriksrx@reddit
Nope. Maybe a small percentage will adopt macOS, and a fraction of a fraction to Linux, but I think tech literacy took a nosedive for some reason after the 2000s and so no young people will have half the requisite skills or knowledge to adopt an OS like Linux. Heck everyone is getting poorer so things like Chromebooks will end up outpacing macOS adoption -- and sticking, since they won't be quite so disposable anymore at that point.
sp0rk173@reddit
No.
Hki16498@reddit
No. People will be buying new computers with windows 11 installed. Linux is a Hobby OS for the desktop. Linux works fine as a Server OS.
Top-Classroom-6994@reddit
This comment should be deleted. Linux isn't and will never be a hobby os. We reached 3% market share and that's without any reliable way to count number of people using Linux. We don't have an install counter so there are probably plenty people that isn't included in this number. 3% is a huge market share. Also android, the most used operating system currently, is linux so it's not just a "server os" even on your arguments since it's dominating mobile market as well. But again, 3% PC market share is more than 30 million people which is a lot. It's about the same as the population of Tokyo.
Molcap@reddit
They will keep using windows 10 even if it is unsupported until they replace their hardware, maybe Microsoft will extend support if there's enough people using it compared to windows 11/12. I think the majority will even consider Mac before Linux. So the answer is no. It's harsh but it's the reality. Nonetheless Linux is still growing at its own rate.
Top-Classroom-6994@reddit
Linux market share is currently around 3% right? And the fact that flatpaks and appimages becoming mainstream making it easier to publish apps, steam supporting everything Linux because of their selfish reason of steamdeck and stuff, we will probably reach 5% or something like that until end of this decade which would make us a non ignorable market for everyone other than those "anti" viruses so our growth is also growing. Compare growth between 2000-2005 with 2018-2023.
tomscharbach@reddit
I don't expect a significant change in the Linux desktop market share, if that is the question.
Looking first at the business market, businesses usually replace computers on a 3-year or 5-year cycle. By October 2025, when support for Windows 10 reaches EOL, computers that cannot run Windows 11 (that is, those built 2017 or earlier) will 7-8 years old, well outside the typical replacement cycle. Businesses that still have Windows 10 computers at that point will replace them.
Looking next at the consumer market, an additional consideration comes into play. Consumers are not, by nature, technically inclined. Migrating from Windows to Linux is not a trivial path. New skills need to be mastered and (in many cases) new applications as well. Consumers, it seems to me, are more likely to take "the easier, softer way" and replace Windows 10 computers with Windows 11 computers at that point rather than keep the computers and migrate.
In a small and informal way, I am seeing this happen before my eyes. I've been talking with about quite a number of friends (all of us in our 70's or early 80's) now using Windows 10 about Windows 10 EOL and the options available for them in 2025. We discuss requirements and specifications ("What do you use your computer to do, and what do you use to do it?"), and whether Linux would be a viable and attractive option.
The answer, so far, has been "No".
In a couple of cases, my friends have recently moved to Windows 11, buying new computers and printers. In a half dozen cases, my friends have moved to Chromebooks at the behest of their grandchildren, who use Chromebooks in school, and are happy with the move. In the rest, after thinking about options, all but two have decided to keep using Windows 10 for another year or so and then buy new computers and cut over to Windows 11. Not one has shown any interest in migrating to Linux.
Although my sample group is atypical in terms of demographics, my guess is that my sample group likely represents the direction in which consumers are going to move over the next 15 months.
That's what I've been seeing, anyway.
thepolanon@reddit (OP)
Thank you for your insight and detailed respond. I greatly appreciate it!
Sarcasm-Probably@reddit
No. Most people simply don't care and those that do only hate the new version of Windows for the first couple of years. If PCMR is an indicator, its hate new version for 2 years, then do 180 and "actually it is great, I don't know why people hate it."
To each their own but Windows 11 isn't going to be the end of Windows. Even if Windows becomes a monthly subscription (I'm sure they'll have a stripped-down Windows S-esque version for 'free') it will not be the end of Windows.
Windows is too ingrained into most of the desktop world and people are plainly just comfortable with it. IMO, the only way Windows is going to take a nosedive in the next decade is if the PC itself takes a nosedive.
jimicus@reddit
Windows 11 already is a monthly susbscription if you want the Enterprise edition.
It won't become a monthly subscription for regular home users for the same reason as MacOS and IOS haven't: it will instead act as the vehicle for other chargeable services such as things delivered via the app store.
Zookvuglop@reddit
/r/Amiga still has support. Just saying.
gabriel_3@reddit
No.
whatstefansees@reddit
No. If you still use Win 10 today you are not necessarily the most IT-savvy person.
Stryker1-1@reddit
No, remember when everyone wasn't going to leave XP or they were going to Linux? Remember when support for 7 ended and everyone swore they wouldn't go through that again and they were going to die on the windows 7 hill?
Happens every time.
rtplor@reddit
I left XP as fast as I could. It really looked boring those days comparing to OSX Leopard, which I never had :-)
mrlinkwii@reddit
no.
they will get a new pc with win 11 on it
CaptainCr0x@reddit
I think many have switched to Linux and or macOS without even Microsoft realizing that because their flagship browser is based on Chromium instead of KHTML Edge which is a very odd decision in itself.
CaptainCr0x@reddit
Let me 'rephrase' that. The statistics Microsoft relies on are based mostly on Cloud Services which in turn represent mostly Enterprise Users, any more than that you are stupid.
d1ng0s@reddit
Chromium is a descendant of KHTML. I don't know what your point is.
CaptainCr0x@reddit
And yours?
dalcinrafa@reddit
Unless an easy distro like Ubuntu manages to get super mainstream overnight, no. Most people don't even know what Linux is.
daemonpenguin@reddit
People asked the same thing when Windows 98, XP, 2000, and 7 reached their end of life. The answer is always no. The vast majority of people do not think about operating systems and do not switch operating systems. They just use whatever shipped with their computer/phone.
hilbertglm@reddit
I don't think there will be an exodus, but I suspect quite a few will go to ChromeOS. Very few will move to Linux.
Zookvuglop@reddit
Not my problem.
Zookvuglop@reddit
/r/Windows