So would an attack on Iran send the price of oil, gasoline, diesel and jet fuel significantly higher or not?
Posted by mark000@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 110 comments
The timeframe for an attack is currently anytime after 19 May:
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/19/politics/trump-gives-iran-deadline-nuclear-deal/index.html
[19 March 2025] Trump gives Iran two-month deadline to reach new nuclear deal
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
Trump ordered an illegal assassination of a universally well liked person in Iran. Like if France all the sudden launched a drone strike that took out Keanu Reeves.
Negotiating with Trump on a nuclear deal is a non-starter for the Iranian people, and the administration knows that.
They couldn’t drum up support for invading Panama, Canada, Greenland, or Mexico, so they are hoping to have better luck with Iran.
The whole plan for keeping Trump in office for a third term depends on taking land my military force.
Hunter_S_Biden@reddit
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
Not going to lie, I actually struggled to find an apt comparison.
84WVBaum@reddit
General Mattis, in terms of killing and influence. Thankfully, we do not actively worship military Deities here. We take time go honor them but they're usually only really heard about regarding their actions or an order given. So far.
Crewmember169@reddit
"Negotiating with Trump on a nuclear deal is a non-starter for the Iranian people, and the administration knows that."
I don't think that is true. Iran is probably desperate to get the sanctions ended.
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
Sanctions have little to no impact on the daily lives of Iranian people. They imported over $12 billion in consumer goods last year.
Crewmember169@reddit
So why would Iran sign a nuclear deal at all?
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
They wouldn’t unless it came with concessions from the US that the current administration could not accept.
Crewmember169@reddit
If Iran doesn't care about the sanctions, then what concessions could the US even make?
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
Justice. Having Trump appear before an international criminal court for ordering the assassination of a government official on a diplomatic mission.
Crewmember169@reddit
You're weird.
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
❤️
Low-Ad-6253@reddit
when you sanction almost every country those countries are pushed into the arms of eachother
Sad_Bolt@reddit
Did you just compare Qasem Soleimani a “general” in the IRGC which is universally hated by the common people in Iran for making their lives horrible. A person who was described to be the head of terrorist operations in the region and was branded a Terrorist by NATO in the early 2000’s for his connection to multiple Terrorist organizations. Someone who used chemical weapons on Iraqi citizens and is said to be one of the main people behind the Syrian civil war to Keanu Reeves the Canadian actor?
DontRememberOldPass@reddit
Yes, I did. According to a 2019 University of Maryland School of Public Policy survey, he was viewed favorably by 82% of the population and 59% saying they thought very favorably of him.
https://cissm.umd.edu/sites/default/files/2019-10/Iranian%20PO%20under%20Maximum%20Pressure_101619_full.pdf
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Iran is quite weakened and its bluffs have been exposed this year.
They will negotiate and an agreement will be made.
I presume this is what Putin wants and that’s why it will probably happen.
reddit1651@reddit
Yup - a lot of people missed the Iran stuff on the readouts of the Trump/Putin call a few weeks ago.
They both explicitly agreed that “Iran must never be allowed to be in the position to destroy Israel” which is an interesting thing for them to devote time on that call to, considering everything related to Europe and Ukraine that’s more existential to Russia
Samyar26@reddit
"Well liked person in iran"; We extremely hate them from hell to heaven
ESB1812@reddit
So…why are we “attacking” Iran again? Getting in a war in the middle east again would be the worst idea, considering the current geopolitical situation. It’s almost like “we” want China to take Taiwan and embolden Russia.
froggythefish@reddit
It’s pretty standard for decaying empires to engage in illogical or unwinnable wars, trying to grasp at their remaining influence slipping away.
Zealousideal_Oil4571@reddit
Depends on what you mean by "significantly." Undoubtedly, prices will rise. At the very least, insurance prices for tankers moving through the area will increase. I believe Iran is currently providing about 3% of the world's oil. That will likely be halted, at least temporarily.
froggythefish@reddit
Iran producing 3% of oil doesn’t mean oil prices go up by 3% if they stop.
In 1979, instability in Iran caused Iran to stop trading oil, 3% of the worlds production. Prices more than doubled.
You’re right about tanker insurance. What the Houthis were able to do to Israeli trade in the Red Sea, would be applied to US trade, and would be even more effective with the whole military’s support.
froggythefish@reddit
Yes Iran is part of OPEC OPEC would retaliate by raising the cost of petroleum products not only coming out of Iran, but all the other OPEC members as well. Basically they’d price gouge oil. Iran is also able to - and the Houthis already have - exert control over the Red Sea (the chunk of water after the Suez canal). The Houthis were able to effectively smother Israeli trade that utilized the Red Sea, they’d be able to do so even more effectively to American trade if Iran as a whole got involved. This includes petroleum product shipments, but also a big chunk of trade as a whole. Look into the 1973 oil embargo (enacted by OAPEC, similar to OPEC) and the 1979 oil crisis (triggered by instability in Iran).
EstablishmentWide603@reddit
~$10 a gallon is my guess
miemcc@reddit
I'd there a new Group Chat? Can I get an invite, pretty please...?
jadelink88@reddit
Yes. Iran is barely 3% of the global market, but oil is very very price inelastic. The speculation alone would drive it through the roof, but the world trying to outbid itself will be significant in price rise. The saudis are going to utterly refuse to bring on extra capacity (if they in fact even have any), as the oil price spike will be most welcome there.
Going from 75ish a barrel to 150 is quite likely, it's happened before. Yes, a big recession is then in pipeline.
FrostyAlphaPig@reddit
America pumps more oil than it imports , it’ll be fine.
Ebscriptwalker@reddit
America cannot refine that oil.
Wide_Drawing2908@reddit
Yes
CyanPomegranate11@reddit
Firstly, Canada supplies 60% of the crude oil to America, and almost 100% of natural gas. So, be nice to Canada 🇨🇦.
That said, crude oil is a commodity and therefore subject to commodity pricing. Therefore, threatening an attack on Iran can make prices go up, globally - for the world. So, best not to be a dumbo and bandy around threats.
unremarkable_gem@reddit
You left off the word imported here, which completely discounts all oil and gas produced within the US. Canada supplied 60% of oil and 100% of natural gas that was imported to the United States. The Untied States produces significantly more oil and natural gas than Canada each year. This is to say that the cost of exporting the products off continent would likely hurt Canada far more than replacing the amount Canada provides in the us consumption picture.
FuzzzyRam@reddit
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mttimusca1&f=a
1.7 billion barrels of crude in 2024, and 60% of imports which are about 25% of our crude oil use. .6 * .25 = 15% of our total crude. If your answer to taxing 15% of a multi-trillion dollar part of our economy is "yea, but it will hurt their economy more," then I really hope you're looking forward to some struggle meals in a massive global depression. "Yea, your son died, but we killed more of their sons than they did ours" isn't a great reason to go to war. Everyone loses here, and for what fucking reason? Do you think Fentanyl is flowing over the Canadian border? Remember that was the excuse.
unremarkable_gem@reddit
I don’t believe I took a position on tariffs in my response. I merely pointed out a mistake in the post that I replied to which makes a massive difference in the point that was being made.
FuzzzyRam@reddit
As long as it's understood that despite the confusing original wording, their point that tariffs will absolutely fuck our economy still stands.
Crewmember169@reddit
Nice? That's the reason we are invading soon.
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
That invasion threat is the reason we're prepared to sabotage the oilfields and pipelines...
We're nice folk up here, until you mess with us. Then we pull out our checklist ;)
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
Yeah, bud. We go from Sorry to not Sorry really quickly once we put our war criming pants on, eh?
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
I love how clueless most of the yanks are... Someone in r/ShitAmericansSay commented that they're like a petulant teenager thinking they know better than everyone and it was too real.
Dunning Krueger at its finest
tgetsinger@reddit
American from New Jersey here. First, for what it's worth, I want to apologize. Most of us are equally appalled at what is going on. I can't believe what's happening in our country. It's absolute insanity. And there's about a quarter of our population that either support it because they're terrible people, or because they're too stupid to understand any of it. From my personal interactions, the latter seems to be the more prevalent case. My hope is that if Trump actually tries any of this bullshit he's proposing that the military steps in and removes him.
StrudelCutie1@reddit
The military brass prides itself on being nonpolitical. If Congress refuses to impeach, the generals aren't going to step in and do their job for them. The best we can hope for is that the military will refuse orders to invade our allies or fire on protestors.
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
Oh hey now, aboot 30% of us cannucks voted for Mr blackface up here...twice. And they'll do it again. 😩
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
Most of us are independent voters, and unlike the US we vote for a local candidate.
This election I'm voting ABC, we're seeing what Pierre wants playing out in real-time down south. I'll pass on that
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
What we're seeing is the Liberals bribing the media with $100 million a year from Google to stay quiet about their scandals while spending the last five years disarming the population so they can sell us out after almost a decade of ruining our economy, souring our diplomatic relations with our trading partners and ignoring the drug and housing crisis their own soft on crime policies exacerbated. Instead of keeping criminals locked up on gun and drug charges, the criminals were released, while licensed gun owners see most of their sporting events erased. Jobs lost across the country. $64 million dollars spent forcing Canadians to keep their sporting rifles locked up at home with another $2 billion expected to be wasted on disarmament after the election. While they hide their "evidence" behind Section 39 of the Canada Evidence Act. Because the material is so sensitive, it is against the public interest to disclose it, even to the courts.
Now, they are bribing the public by rolling back gas prices today, just before the election.
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
That's quite the rant. Do you have evidence to support your claims?
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
Update with links. I tried to use CBC, where available, for your benefit.
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
Lol. Appreciated, especially the CBC. They're far from perfect, but better than the yank funded rags by far ;)
Good on you for substantiating your perspective. Gives me hope
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
Yeah. I grew up really enjoying CBC programs like Quirks & Quarks, and the voices of Stuart McLean, Gloria macarenko, and Wendy Mesley were household staples. I miss that level of programming.
But when the government screws you over, gaslights you, and CBC just parrots Liberal talking points it without any fact-checking or grilling of politicians for the truth it's really hurtful.
Gun owners, for the most part, have to be familiar with the law and how it affects them. We already had "red flag laws" and some of the tightest restrictions in the world. The Nova Scotia shooting would have been avoided if the RCMP had acted on the testimony they received about the shooter owning illegal guns smuggled in from the US years prior. But did the Liberals focus on RCMP procedural reform? Install scanners at our ports of entry? Anything that would have stopped it?
No, they tell 2.4 million licensed firearm owners to lock up their "toys" and "find new sports" for 5 years while they waste our tax dollars trying to figure out how to shred them while using it as an election wedge issue. How betrayed I felt when, after voting NDP my entire life, they stood up and voted right along with the Bloc and Greens to implement entirely ineffective legislation that only hurts licensed and vetted individuals who have background checks every 24 hours and are statistically the least likely to commit crimes. All the while, we see actual criminals with long lists of gun and drug charges walk free with a court date, only to commit more gun crimes with guns licensed individuals haven't been allowed to own since the mid 90s.😩
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
I'm 100% against the gun bans, there is nothing to justify them whatsoever. It's not us who have the permits and legally acquiring weapons that are the issue.
The reason I'm voting ABC is around social issues. I tend to lean between Green and Orange these days, though I feel like ever party has lost their way.
Workers rights, especially for collective bargaining, are my biggest voting issue. I strongly believe in a system like the Betriebsrat, or workers council. In Germany every company with 50 or more employees automatically has a union, and the company is obligated to negotiate with the union. It isn't perfect, but it's a start.
We need to clean up our wealth inequality and poverty issues before I can put guns at the top of my list...
4r4nd0mninj4@reddit
We would have had a lot less poverty if the government hadn't spent the last decade driving away resource investment and selling out our children's future to debt they'll never afford to pay back. They tell Europe and Asia that buying Russian oil and LNG is "bad" and then refuse to supply them with our cleaner resources. Now, the US has those fat LNG contracts and good paying jobs the Liberals turned their nose up at. Why have a made in Canada pipeline, though canada, when we can rely on the US for our East Coast oil and gas needs?
CBLA1785@reddit
No.
The answer is no, they don't.
Crewmember169@reddit
I sort of imagine it's inside a glass box with a sign saying "Break in case of US invasion."
PopUpClicker@reddit
Trump will just make the money back with tariff magic. In a jiffy I tell you.
It is going to be great.
... /s
webbersdb8academy@reddit
I have not seen this suggested in the discussion do far; what happens of Russia and Saudi Arabia step in to fill the gap in supplies when this happens??
Or what if that was the plan all along?? Maybe that was what the supposed cease fire talks for Ukraine were really about??
The bombings of Iran did get announced about that same time.
StrudelCutie1@reddit
All Persian Gulf oil will be shut down during a war. The Strait of Hormuz is easy to interdict.
OptimismNeeded@reddit
Iran is an ally of Russia.
Saudi is an enemy of Russia and Iran.
My assumption is that a deal with Iran will be good for Putin and a blow to Saudi Arabia, which is why it will happen.
Saudi will then be in a tougher position to negotiate with Trump about the Abraham’s Accords and normalization with Israel - which is what Trump wants.
webbersdb8academy@reddit
So I am wondering why they were doing the cease fire negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
Corrupted_G_nome@reddit
His plan is to crash oil markets to be the primary market and production.
Russia is sanctioned, Canada is tarrifed. The next major bloc is OPEC.
cosmic_muppet@reddit
if a duck farts in the gulf of mexico the price of gas goes higher for two months, so.. yeah. it would be significant.
danielledelacadie@reddit
I would think the tariffs on Mexico and Canada, who together produce about half of the oil used in the US will have a greater effect, but of course any conflict is always a great way for some to inflate prices even higher.
irrision@reddit
The US produces more oil than it uses by far. Don't confuse imports to the US as use. Most of that is just coming through the US to major Gulf refineries and ports to for overseas sale. Regardless though oil is an international market so price pressure in the middle east will drive up prices in the US even though it doesn't rely on middle east oil at all these days.
Ok-Row-6088@reddit
The problem with the statement though correct is that the type of oil that is produced in the United States is not the type of oil we use. The type of oil most used in the United States is gasoline, which is a refined petroleum product. In 2022, the consumption of finished motor gasoline averaged about 8.78 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 43% of total U.S. petroleum consumption. The US cannot produce all of the fuel it needs. That’s one of the reasons they’re going after the EPA so heavily because one of the reasons it can’t be done because regulations prevent them from dumping all of the horrible chemicals that are required to refine fuel into our environment. We also don’t have a good source of heavy crude, which is used in a lot of petroleum products, so as much as everybody likes to think we could be self-sufficient here we literally can’t.
StrudelCutie1@reddit
How did you come to the conclusion that the US cannot produce sufficient gasoline? EIA's most recent data shows production of 9.222 million barrels/day vs consumption of 8.643. Relaxing environmental regulations won't cause any shuttered refineries to reopen: no one's going to risk money on that.
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php
AntiBoATX@reddit
doesn’t a lot of heavy crude come from Canada too?
Mountain_Fig_9253@reddit
It has been.
Vanshrek99@reddit
Oh did the US build all new refineries in the last 15 years. Almost all US produced oil is exported as refineries are built to process heavy sour oil not sweet light.
WaltzIntrepid5110@reddit
I keep seeing Americans mixing up local supply of oil, with the global supply.
And it's the global supply that sets the price of oil/gasoline... so if it's disrupted by a war, it will effect prices in the US too.
danielledelacadie@reddit
The refineries in the US aren't set up for it's native light sweet crude, which gets exported because the cheaper heavy crude is what is refined for domestic use.
RobertB16@reddit
Not all oil is the same, mate. Depending of the "blend" and it's components (like sulphur) is used for different purposes.
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
Lol. I love that no one is caring about the 'official' name
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
I thought it was the gulf of
Cuba United States Mexico
Coro-NO-Ra@reddit
As you are, as you were, as I want you to be?
Greedy-Tart5025@reddit
Anybody who uses the newspeak form reveals themselves as an idiot.
Enough-Meaning-9905@reddit
We are at war with Eastasia
CaptainHowdy60@reddit
Gulf of what? /s
MrBrawn@reddit
All we need is 24% mortgage rates and we party like it's 1979.
Apprehensive-Pop-201@reddit
Precisely
Jestermace1@reddit
I will let yall know the exact date when I get my signal chat message .
No-Group7343@reddit
Gas was what under $2 before 9/11? Over the next few years it went up to almost.$5 (national average)
funge56@reddit
Attacking Iran is the stupidest thing the orange turd could do.
Ryan_e3p@reddit
If he were to start a new war in the Middle East, I can see it hitting $5-6/gallon, with his followers saying they are happy to pay $20/gallon for the Peaceful President of Fertizilation's dreams of 'Murican Greatness to come true.
Due_badger-97@reddit
I know this is satire, it’s honestly the truth tho…:(
LegitLolaPrej@reddit
The oil and gas corporations would have a justifiable excuse to price gouge, so yes the price will skyrocket
awesumpawesum@reddit
yes
Do_The_Floof@reddit
I'm thoroughly convinced that the "debt" America owes will NEVER be paid. Eventually our government is just gonna be like......."Yeah I owe you. And what? Do something about it!" And then use our own resources. I think we're just draining the world of all the resources we can with fake money and empty promises. Then eventually we'll stop using oil as much and stop importing BS from other countries.
SMarseilles@reddit
Iran has threatened Saudi, and probably other ME oil production, as a specific retaliation to any attack by the US. Yes, it’ll affect the price of oil.
Ok-Prompt-59@reddit
Iran produces 3% of the world’s oil. The only way it would sky rocket is if OPEC refused to make up for the difference or if it broke out into a world war.
mark000@reddit (OP)
YES
mark000@reddit (OP)
NO
kite13light13@reddit
Maybe
JacenCaedus@reddit
I don't know
Cucaracho_satanico@reddit
Can you repeat the question
Dultsboi@reddit
YOURE NOT THE BOSS OF ME NOW
Kitchen-Hat-5174@reddit
Frankie Muniz had a weird shaped head.
mark000@reddit (OP)
"Do you have a brain?"
Kitchen-Hat-5174@reddit
Isn’t Iran already sanctioned and countries can’t buy its oil?
Wild-Lengthiness2695@reddit
Having exhausted manipulating stock prices with Tesla and tariffs , it’s just another part of the game , albeit this time using the US armed forces as playing pieces.
myhairychode@reddit
💯
Upset-Diamond2857@reddit
Without a doubt- overnight- justified or not doesn’t matter at the end of the day but it would go up for sure
Contagious_Zombie@reddit
Our attack on them would do nothing but I believe they would attack US oil in other countries around the region so 1000% yes.
PhoenixHeat602@reddit
If you’re looking for a spike in oil, it’ll happen mostly out of fear and not from a major disruption in the Persian Gulf. If there is a strike against Iran, it’ll be a combined strike that will include Israel, and most likely the KSA (Saudi Arabia). Additionally, if a strike is to happen, all targets are currently being watched 24/7, and have been for some time. This means not only from space, but personnel who have either been recruited years ago (who are close enough to or within those targets), or “transients’ who arrive and only stay for short durations. Regardless, assets have continuous eyes on the targets.
I mention this because some of what I would see as potential targets will be anything that fly’s, floats, submerges, or can be fired at ships in the Persian Gulf. KSA, Qatar, UAE and other OPEC nations can and probably will increase output shortly after they enjoy their windfall of a price spike.
Some of the recipients of Iranian oil will suffer (North Korea, African nations and parts of Asia). The potential of a price spike should be short-lived, if Iran is pummeled bad enough. Iran may mine the gulf and the strait off of Oman, but that would depend on what Iranian ships and boats are left.
Ed-the-Dread@reddit
Can't wait to hear what horseshit they'd trot out for skyrocketing gas prices. That is ONE OF THE WORST THINGS that can happen to the party in power before elections
SuitableCurrency2103@reddit
lmao - gasoline?
American logistics relies solely on gas (semi trucks).
If Trump goes to war with Iran- everything is going up. Recent article posted here either yesterday or earlier today estimates a war with Iran would surge it to $10+ a gallon easily. So imagine literally everything else x3 in price as well, unless it was produced in walking distance.
thegr8lexander@reddit
There is no mention of an attack. Stop fear mongering
dirtygymsock@reddit
“If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing,” Trump said during a phone call
Holiday-Tie-574@reddit
The likes of which they have never seen before
Resident_Chip935@reddit
That was true as of 24 hours ago.
Tomorrow, he will be threatening war with Japan.
mark000@reddit (OP)
Trump’s bombing threat over Iran nuclear programme prompts backlash
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/31/trumps-bombing-threat-over-iran-nuclear-programme-prompts-backlash
Chance_Possible8727@reddit
It would get more expensive for the people over there.. Id imagine he's going to try and force our oil companies to produce more oil or steal it from Venezuela
dyslexic-alien@reddit
Absolutely and because we live in a capitalistic society, a war doesn’t need to happen to get the price increase because just the mere fact of a speculation would do so.
My guess is that in about a month before the deadline, price would increase starting from 10% to 50% near the end of the deadline. If a war doesn’t happen, then it’ll probably retrace to around 10% more (gotta love profits) but if a war happens, gas could very easily go 400% of current price as speculation, hoarding and scarcity worldwide would means big profits for the 1% and China would be selling their EV’s like hotcakes
ShihPoosRule@reddit
Around $10 a gallon.