Is there any silver lining to the breakdown of states in the MIddle East?
Posted by solo-ran@reddit | anime_titties | View on Reddit | 7 comments
In the US, Brazil, Mexico, and Canada in the 18th and 19th centuries federalism took hold not because of any political ideology so much as due to the distances and difficulties in communication from the capital to the regions. A regional military force that could challenge the central government or a state or province that had direct relations with a foreign power were the red lines that could not be crossed in New World federal systems. Now in the Middle East, in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, the extreme federalism is considered a "failed" state because the center can literally only impose it's will on the autonomous regions by military force and entities like Iraqi Kurdistan are only one or two steps away from forming independent nations. Yet, the Kurds have not abandoned representation in the capital nor sought recognition from foreign states or a seat at the UN, so Iraq still means the entire entity on the map. Southern Lebanon under Hezbollah was somewhat akin to that scenario at least until recently. Is there any hope that over generations, this extreme form of de facto federalism will somehow start to work well enough to count as something other than a failure? If after decades of figuring out how to live with this "system" the regions and nations can make this work? Or is this situation too unstable and there is too much risk of renewed civil war and a unitary state with the center controlling foreign relations and the military is absolutely required to create a safe and prosperous country?
ViennaLager@reddit
For a state to function it requires the people in that region to believe and trust in the state. That is something that takes a very long time to build, particularly when the borders that make the country was made by external colonists.
My living grandfather (95) is older than the Kingdom of Iraq (91 years old), my father (66) is more or less the same age of the Republic of Iraq (67). Before that it was a British colony, part of the Ottoman empire, part of the mongolian empire, the abbasid calliphate etc.
It will take at least another generation before we start to see good functioning states in the Middle East and in Africa. The Arab League is very dysfunctional now, but hopefully that can in time grow into something good.
eternalmortal@reddit
Maybe all the state level destabilization will result in more autonomy for minority groups, and maybe even international recognition for a Kurdistan or similar national homeland for marginalized people. That's the best silver lining I can find in the past.... at least three centuries of endless war.
EntertainmentIcy3090@reddit
Jihadis killing each other is far better than jihadis uniting and creating a huge problem for the rest of the world. Religion is a plague upon humanity and Islam is one of the worst forms of it
Algaeruletheworld@reddit
I don’t believe we will have an answer to this for a while because far right leaders are teaming up with Israel and the impacts on not just the Middle East, but the world, are hard to predict at this point. Feeling like the Bronze Age Collapse v. 2 on the way.
Magicspook@reddit
I think we had a few collapses between now and the Bronze Age Collapse lol
Algaeruletheworld@reddit
I don’t believe we will have an answer to this for a while because far right leaders are teaming up with Israel and the impacts on not just the Middle East, but the world, are hard to predict at this point. Feeling like the Bronze Age Collapse v. 2 on the way.
Sorry accidentally deleted original post, see above.
Response to comment: Sure, Roman Empire, Maya and so on I’m saying Bronze Age specifically because of these similarities: Globalization improvements leading to quicker exchange of ideas, products, and cultures, plus adding complexities to the system. Widespread fear, poverty, war, natural disasters, and climate change were all happening at that time.
BAUWS45@reddit
I guess know one has to compete with them as they bicker with one another. SA and Israel have influence, but they’re not the US EU China etc. kinda like South America