Sea Ice Thickness and Volume: Polar Portal
Posted by TuneGlum7903@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 48 comments
"The ice cover in the Arctic grows throughout the winter, before peaking in March. Melting picks up pace during the spring as the sun gets stronger, and in September the extent of the ice cover is typically only around one third of its winter maximum."
Ummm...
Anyone else noticing how LOW the sea Arctic sea ice is this year?
Vlad_TheImpalla@reddit
Yea old ice is practically gone 99 percent now, one el nino and we're in a blue ocean event, probably 2 years.
pippopozzato@reddit
B . O . E . ! ! !
Megelsen@reddit
I always thought BOE before 2030 was pessimistic, that it's more likely between 2035-2050, but at this point, I am of the opinion that BOE after 2030 would be surprising.
This paper about tipping points always serves as a reminder, what we might already be dealing with (now >1.5°C warming)
https://scx2.b-cdn.net/gfx/news/hires/2022/risk-of-multiple-clima-3.jpg
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abn7950
ebolathrowawayy@reddit
Based on OP's graph, it looks like BOE 2025, no?
Megelsen@reddit
Personally doubt it, but it will be close for the next couple a years, maybe scratching the surface of it before diving into the latent energy of fusion territory. That's gonna majorly suck.
ebolathrowawayy@reddit
I have a funny feeling it will be this year. It could explain the insane behavior in politics building up over the last decade, but especially the spike in insanity this year.
!RemindMe 7 months
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Indigo_Sunset@reddit
Reference for anyone wondering at the rate of turnover
https://nsidc.org/data/soac/sea-ice-age
BigDog95046@reddit
How the hell does Hanson believe warming will slow down to .36C per decade? 2025 March and January have shown us we might just been be in the most nightmarish scenario where it's 2C before 2030
vegansandiego@reddit
He is a scientist and when the data are changing so fast, anything else would just be speculation. Hansen is doing the best he can with what he has.
BasedDistributist@reddit
Ultimately even Hansen is limited by history and the available data. In order to keep quality high and limit speculation, he's going to inevitibly be somewhat out of date.
His team comes out with new papers every few months or so. Keep an eye out for them. He'll eventually catch up.
kitkats124@reddit
Yeah, the next couple of years of climate data will be crucial to help us understand better the rate of warming and acceleration we’ve seen in the past 2 or 3 years.
RentRepresentative74@reddit
It will be crucial for understanding the fuckery that we’re seeing now. But in “next couple of years” we’re going to see new fuckery beyond our imagination and understanding.
kitkats124@reddit
Yeah, I used to think BOE was likely 2032-2035 but now I think it will be before 2030. Another self reinforcing positive feedback loop in the bucket to accelerate warming…
BigDog95046@reddit
Yeah his last report was late 2024 I believe. His belief that rate of warming would decrease to .36C put a slight twinge of hope in my black doomer heart. Seems not even the most OG doomer of them all could predict how fast we would go
Brendan__Fraser@reddit
We're getting .36C of warning from one El Niño summer.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
its based on the idea that this recent jump in warming was due to decrease in albedo which is short term. we will find out this time next year if he is right.
peaceloveandapostacy@reddit
Jim delulu.
TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)
SS: The Arctic sea ice is at a new LOW for March. The time of year when it's supposed to be at its thickest. We are RAPIDLY moving towards a summer "Blue Ocean Event" (BOE) sometime in the next five years.
Once those become a yearly event, global warming will further accelerate AND climate disruption will become much worse.
I discuss this in my article from June 2023.
48 - Understanding the Global Climate System isn't as hard as you think. We have most of the pieces to "SEE" it clearly now.
The things to understand are:
Eighty percent of the energy the Earth gets from the Sun is captured in between the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern hemisphere and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern.
HEAT ENERGY flows from HOT places to COLD places.
This permanent ENERGY IMBALANCE between the HOT EQUATORIAL ZONE and the COLD POLAR ZONES results in a CONSTANT flow of HEAT ENERGY from the equator to the poles using the oceans and the atmosphere. This FLOW of ENERGY is what we perceive as “weather”. The long-term state of the ENERGY IMBALANCE between the equator and the poles is what we perceive as “climate”.
So,
If the Arctic sea ice is SHRINKING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is INCREASING. Indicating that the Earth is WARMING.
If the Arctic sea ice is GROWING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is DECLINING. Indicating that the Earth is COOLING.
The Arctic sea ice is the “end point” of the Global Climate System. HEAT from the Sun starts at the Equator and, at the end of the complex workings of our climate system, what's left reaches the Arctic.
The Arctic Sea Ice is the “Temperature Gauge” of the Earth.
Right now, it says the world is warming up FAST.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
I dont see how the worlds governments can avoid global famine happening at the latest by 2040, more likey in the 2030s but perhaps even as soon in the next 5 years.
Once we lose the summer ice around Greenland it stops being a semi stable system and becomes a purely chaotic one as Greenland randomly discharges meltwater and ice into the arctic, causing fluctuating and unpredictable weather in the worlds biggest grain growing regions. It will accelerate slow down of the Gulf Stream which will cause droughts in meso america, the sahel and india: places with hundreds of millions of subsitance farmers.
I have NO IDEA why this isnt common knowledge. Everyone should know about this. All other risks are essentially hypothetical. Even high end warming scenarios are a distant worry compared to near term harvest failures. If I had a say in government I would be lobbying for ways to feed a population for ten years on food storage alone.
likeupdogg@reddit
If the mainstream started seriously analyzing this issue it would send the entire world into panic and we might actually change things. That's no good for business!
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
i dont see how mass famine is good for business either though! a politician or a banker can take a flight to uruguay or whatever but what about career generals and long term administrators?
likeupdogg@reddit
They're just keeping this lost cause going as long as possible. It will inevitably collapse along with every single "business", but our leaders are choosing to wait until nature forces this collapse onto us instead of willingly lowering our impact. The old people in power aren't thinking they'll be around for the real trouble and so they prefer to enjoy the present.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
we could probably come together to design an agricultural system that could continue to feed us through climate chaos but i can count on my hands the number of people ive met in my life who would actually be prepared to make the sacrifices needed to accomplish this.
likeupdogg@reddit
That's basically what I'm dedicating my life to creating, starving to death sounds like the worst way to go.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
id take starvation over mass execution tbh.
faster-than-expected@reddit
To melt 1 gram of ice requires 80 calories, which is the same amount of energy to raise the temperature of 1 gram of water 80 degrees Celsius.
Once the ice is melted all the energy that used to melt the ice will go into warming the ocean.
tldr: We’re screwed.
peaceloveandapostacy@reddit
Never seen it put this way. 144 F is horrifying.
CorvidCorbeau@reddit
It's technically true but you shouldn't expect the arctic ocean to warm up anywhere close to that. Other contributing factors are the total mass of the water, which is many times larger than the mass of all arctic sea ice, and water having about twice the heat capacity.
But for a simple estimation, the arctic summer ice minimum decreased by about 4 million km2 since 1980. In that same time the surface waters of the arctic ocean warmed up by about 4°C.
The lowest recent summer minimum was around 3.5 million km2. I would be cautious and say you should expect it to warm by a little more than 4°C again if that disappears entirely.
Vibrant-Shadow@reddit
Is that those atomic bombs in the ocean i keep hearing about?
daviddjg0033@reddit
its a really really large amount of energy
Anonymous_123678@reddit
If we look at the long-term trend line for September, arctic sea ice volume hits zero around 2034.
The trend line is probably going to get steeper over the next 5 years.
Hence, my bet is on a blue ocean event in the early 2030s.
https://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png
TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)
That's also my forecast.
Responsible_Jury7438@reddit
He says it peaks in March, but that chart looks like it peaks in May. Was that a typo, or am I looking at the charts wrong ?
TuneGlum7903@reddit (OP)
Automistake.
Responsible_Jury7438@reddit
Thanks for the response.
peaceloveandapostacy@reddit
Yeah but the sports ball team I like did great this season.. and my yard is super green! And my totally necessary gian truck that I use to commute to my office job is running great! Now we can ship useless plastic future landfill products across the northwest passage. Cooked.
EarthSurf@reddit
IKEA has never been cheaper!
iwatchppldie@reddit
I feel bad for the animals humans deserve this though.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
Humans are animals too
blackermon@reddit
All animals are equal, but some are more evil than others
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
Very profound
Vibrant-Shadow@reddit
Here we go.
elhabito@reddit
It's pretty wild how people made fun of Al Gore for suggesting it was possible to have a blue ocean event and it turns out he was likely within 2 decades of predicting the collapse of something that has been around for tens of millions of years.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
Its been around for 3 million years.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/TuneGlum7903:
SS: The Arctic sea ice is at a new LOW for March. The time of year when it's supposed to be at its thickest. We are RAPIDLY moving towards a summer "Blue Ocean Event" (BOE) sometime in the next five years.
Once those become a yearly event, global warming will further accelerate AND climate disruption will become much worse.
I discuss this in my article from June 2023.
48 - Understanding the Global Climate System isn't as hard as you think. We have most of the pieces to "SEE" it clearly now.
The things to understand are:
Eighty percent of the energy the Earth gets from the Sun is captured in between the Tropic of Cancer in the Northern hemisphere and the Tropic of Capricorn in the Southern.
HEAT ENERGY flows from HOT places to COLD places.
This permanent ENERGY IMBALANCE between the HOT EQUATORIAL ZONE and the COLD POLAR ZONES results in a CONSTANT flow of HEAT ENERGY from the equator to the poles using the oceans and the atmosphere. This FLOW of ENERGY is what we perceive as “weather”. The long-term state of the ENERGY IMBALANCE between the equator and the poles is what we perceive as “climate”.
So,
If the Arctic sea ice is SHRINKING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is INCREASING. Indicating that the Earth is WARMING.
If the Arctic sea ice is GROWING, it means that the amount of HEAT ENERGY arriving from the Equator is DECLINING. Indicating that the Earth is COOLING.
The Arctic sea ice is the “end point” of the Global Climate System. HEAT from the Sun starts at the Equator and, at the end of the complex workings of our climate system, what's left reaches the Arctic.
The Arctic Sea Ice is the “Temperature Gauge” of the Earth.
Right now, it says the world is warming up FAST.
MANDATORY DISCLAIMER:
I write and post on a number of sites and have been attacked for having no “academic credentials” in any field related to climate science. I do not wish to misrepresent myself as a “climate scientist” or “climate expert” to anyone who is reading this or any of my other climate related posts, so let us be clear:
I am not a climatologist, meteorologist, paleo-climatologist, geoscientist, ecologist, or climate science specialist. I am a motivated individual studying the issue using publicly available datasets and papers.
The analysis I am presenting is my own. I make no claim to “insider or hidden knowledge” and all the points I discuss can be verified with only a few hours of research on the Internet.
The analysis and opinion I present, in this and my other climate articles is exactly that: my opinion. I hope anyone reading it finds it useful, informative, and insightful but in the end, it is just my opinion.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1jm48ap/sea_ice_thickness_and_volume_polar_portal/mk8to00/