Sorry Gaslight Gary, you have no power here

We've got to watch out for linear thinking. I know I'm prone to it - it's natural. Just as many of us are not good at estimating the risks from long-term growing threats like climate change, many of us are not good at estimating how fast the good trends could roll out. Nothing substantial appears to be happening for a long time - but that's the very nature of exponential growth. Remember the old example of bacteria in a Petri dish. Assume you know it doubles every minute, and the dish will be full in an hour. When is the dish half full? In 59 minutes! The bacteria has been almost invisible for 50 minutes then in the last 10 minutes goes from a tiny blotch to an eighth, then a quarter, then a half, and suddenly the dish is full! Most of us have been ignorant of the slow but accumulating breakthroughs in both renewable technology and the ability to scale it. Indeed, until a year ago I was pro-nuclear for at least half the grid because I just couldn't see how renewables could be Overbuilt sufficiently to offset winter and "Dunkelflautes". But renewables are now SO cheap they can be Overbuilt for our needs. Supply lines and investments are kicking in, but all behind the scenes. In my metaphor, that’s the invisible bacteria breeding in the dish - for the last few decades. But now, suddenly we can see the renewables breaking out. It's matured - and it’s about to explode exponentially across the next decade. So many solar factories are being built today that when they are finished in 2025 they will build FOUR TIMES the solar built in 2022! This is 6% of today's electricity built EVERY YEAR! 17 years to the job from solar alone! [https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-184-eroi-of-re/](https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-184-eroi-of-re/) Solar is doubling every 4 years and wind every 4.5 years. It's also a myth that they rely on rare earths, as most brands of renewable energy are moving into more abundant materials. Sodium (sea-salt) batteries are now a thing, and even their catalysts are from abundant materials like "Prussian Blue" (chemically treated iron) or "Hard Carbon" etc. EV's will be HALF of all new cars sold by 2030. Trucking is changing - Tesla have their 40 ton Semi, and Janus Australia even have a 100 ton electric ROAD TRAIN that runs on a giant battery-swap system! [https://youtu.be/9eYLtPSf7PY](https://youtu.be/9eYLtPSf7PY) Mining prototypes could be heading in that direction soon. It's all growing SO FAST that the head of the International Energy Agency predicts peak OIL DEMAND by 2026 and declining from there. https://www.iea.org/news/growth-in-global-oil-demand-is-set-to-slow-significantly-by-2028 Experts think peak FOSSIL FUELS will be reached soon, and phased out WELL before 2050! [http://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241](http://theconversation.com/theres-a-huge-surge-in-solar-production-under-way-and-australia-could-show-the-world-how-to-use-it-190241) Basically, people are going to be shocked at how fast things change across the next 10 years. Elon Musk has pointed out that as we “Electrify Everything” we will halve the amount of TOTAL thermal energy used - as measuring fossil fuels at the point of mining and extraction is a cheat. What counts is the electricity delivered to homes and miles driven in an EV - the work done. The world will be moving from dirty polluting climate-changing fossil fuels to clean abundant renewable energy from super-abundant materials that can be recycled. It's going to clean the air, clean much of our water, save the climate, and topple petro-dictators. And we haven't even mentioned the changes in food tech that are coming!