For expats in Europe, are you at all concerned that Putin will soon be knocking at the door now that he’s being given the green light by Washington DC?
Posted by PickledPigPinkies@reddit | expats | View on Reddit | 44 comments
I have EU citizenship and our family is starting to have second thoughts about moving there and it ending up being a short term safety jump from one boiling pot to another. We don’t want to have to move again if possible. Any personal concerns or have you heard any local chatter about that?
HVP2019@reddit
“Putin will be knocking”
This unrealistic take if you think about it literally…
More realistic take: Europe will be changing to accommodate new realities.
Some countries will be very motivated to increase military spending, even if it means raising already high taxes, cutting social nets, introducing military draft.
Some countries will not be as motivated because they are too far away from Russia and their voters unlikely vote for such changes.
Some European countries will shift right and will become increasingly friendly with Russia.
ALL three groups will have dramatically different priorities and this fact may weaken existing alliances, including NATO and even EU. Some ruptures are possible.
blackkettle@reddit
I don't really see group 2 as an issue. The major EU/European military powers are the UK, France, Germany. They're 'geographically far' but clearly telegraphing the fact that they are going to pick up the slack. Smaller, more distant members like Portugal probably aren't going to make a huge new military investment, but I doubt it's really expected. I can't see that really making a huge gap in priorities or fracturing relationships between group 1 and 2. Group 3 is the big issue with Hungary being the obvious 'leader'. The problem here is that even just one EU member state misaligned this badly makes it easy to wreak havoc on EU policy. That is probably something that will have to change.
HVP2019@reddit
EU has freedom of movement.
Introducing higher taxes, social security cuts and possible military draft in some countries but not in other countries will lead to migration of productive population from some countries to other countries.
Those will be very tricky times for European governments to navigate
blackkettle@reddit
Maybe, but there is already plenty of variation in this regard, I’m not convinced it will be further upset by this change.
PoolSnark@reddit
Irony: Europe may spend more on military and less on safety net, allowing US to spend more on safety net and less on military.
El-Invunche@reddit
It's about time. Inevitably, Europeans will excorciate people from the US for curtailing subsidies of European defense.
Academic-Balance6999@reddit
IMO this is the correct take. Two specific things I think are likely to come true:
European states will have to fiend more on their militaries, even if just as a deterrent. This will have the knock-on effect of weakening social safety nets thru spending cuts.
Russia will be even more threatened by a more armed Europe, so they will aim their disinformation cannons more squarely at European countries, just as they did for brexit and they do in the US (it’s well known that Russian troll farms create and amplify social divisions through social media posts both pro- and anti-BLM, pro- and anti-vaccine etc., leading the greater social polarization). This will impact European social cohesion although fingers crossed they will deal with it better through legislation and policy than the US has.
B3stThereEverWas@reddit
Doubtful
European nation states have too many conflicting interests with each other without there being serious divisions.
Agree on cuts to the welfare state though. Without the US security blanket they are going to have to up defence significantly.
SamMerlini@reddit
Sane post. Glad there is still a sound mind on Reddit.
littlechefdoughnuts@reddit
Europe is tremendously rich, has several million soldiers, and two nuclear powers.
The Russian Federation has taken three years to . . . get a hundred thousand soldiers killed against a single poor Eastern European country whilst meeting none of its war aims. Russia attacking the EU would be national suicide.
Unless you're relocating to the border between Poland and Kalingrad, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
UnicornFartIn_a_Jar@reddit
It’s not about the military action, it’s about the effect on the economy: in order to increase military spending governments will cut eg social benefits, prices will keep going up so life will be even more expensive than it is already now
dreamrpg@reddit
There are a lot of areas where EU could reduce spending and do just fine. Since 2009. to me it feels like EU is really holding back on crucial areas, but focusing wast resources on non vitals.
Currently military is crucial area.
Another point you are missing - increase of military spending is not one way deal and not forever.
Numbers can vary, but often 1/3 goes to salaries. So that is social programm already.
1/3 goes to upkeep. Which is kind of waste.
1/3 goes to new purchases, which can create jobs.
Difference is also that until EU does not blow up equipment, money is not really wasted, but accumulated. At some point some of that equipment may be sold.
If it is used, then it served its purpose and money was not wasted.
Almost-positive@reddit
I get what you're saying but I think this is what England said as well during ww2. Never say never. Ukraine was not a undefended country. They have/had, I believe, the second largest army in Europe behind, I want to say Turkey? Not sure exactly. But they weren't just farmers with pitchfork. That's for sure.
littlechefdoughnuts@reddit
Britain acknowledged the Nazi threat. Part of the reason why Chamberlain accepted the outcome of the Munich Conference was so that Britain could continue to rearm and prepare to fight.
Two of Russia's four coastlines can be trivially blockaded by Europe, and the third is easy to deny most shipping access to. This would eviscerate what's left of the Russian economy.
In a war with Europe, Russia would lose every single time. No question.
eruditionfish@reddit
Baltic Sea and Black Sea, right? And the third is the Arctic/Barents?
littlechefdoughnuts@reddit
Yes, exactly.
3andahalfbath@reddit
It’s not just about military action. I would personally worry if I was living in Central/ Eastern Europe. I see lots of posts from people looking to move to countries like Georgia, Hungary, and Albania. Putin is unlikely to invade countries like that but very likely to influence elections to install puppet rulers like he just tried to do in Romania.
Jugurthaa@reddit
100%
Aztecdune1973@reddit
Well, I live right next door to Russia in Finland, and I am not the least bit worried. Yes, things are changing, but I think they're changing for the better. The sooner we get away from US hegemony in Europe the sooner we can control our own destinies.
atropear@reddit
Not one person I know volunteered to fight in Ukraine. And not one person I know joined their own country's military to show support. If your great grandfather was asked the question, that is the first thing he would ask. So the answer is no. No one thinks Russia is going to invade Europe. I know a fair number of Ukrainians and not one of them has gone back to fight although some have lost relatives in this war.
a_library_socialist@reddit
Exactly. Unless you're volunteering to take the place of conscripted Ukrainians being fed to the meat grinders please shut the fuck up about "standing with Ukraine".
There's few things as disgusting to me as a chickenhawk.
CaspinLange@reddit
Putin is week their country is completely depleted militarily and financially.
Europe the awakening giant right now as we speak. A new military industrial complex is arising.
Putin does not have time or resources yo stop it, and the Uk And France together are the third largest nuclear force in the world without the US.
a_library_socialist@reddit
The UK left Europe.
And their foreign policy is not necessarily in the interest of the EU. If it is, great, but they seem as committed to American hegemony as the US is
mbrevitas@reddit
Maybe avoid the Baltic states, if you’re worried about a worst-case scenario in which Russia invades a small and militarily weak EU country and tries to present a fait accompli to the rest of the continent. Everywhere else in the EU will be fine.
a_library_socialist@reddit
Exactly. France has nukes. One of main reasons Russian claims to be at war is NATO expansion - which has been driven primarily by the US (and UK).
Russia can't take Kyiv, they're not marching through Berlin.
The Baltics are some of the biggest supporters for continuation of the Ukraine war for a reason. But I'd argue that it's not good even for them. This war has seen horrific casualties - but it's also seen Russia learning to fight a war against the most up to date NATO equipment, face down US and EU sanctions, and do OK. That's not a good thing if you're Latvia.
averagecyclone@reddit
Yes. I'm Canadian. My fellow canadian expat friends and I have all registered with our local consulate so they know where to find/contact us in case shit hits the fan. We all also have enough travel points saved up for an emergency flight home
BIG_BOTTOM_TEXT@reddit
Russia will never invade the EU.
zinjanthropus99@reddit
Quit watching the news and you will be happier.
StriderKeni@reddit
I don’t really see that happening, but either way, worst case scenario, I’d pack my things and go back to Latin America.
leavezukoalone@reddit
I completely understand the fear of Russian aggression in Europe. But can we stop pretending that Russia is going to somehow conquer all of Ukraine and continue onward through the rest of Europe?
Russian tactics, although improving, are antiquated compared to any modern western military. They’ve managed to blow through hundreds of thousands of personnel as a result of their awful tactics and leadership. Along with those personnel losses are an enormous amount of armor, artillery, and ammunition losses.
Russia may slowly inch deeper into Ukraine, but I highly doubt they’ll ever successfully occupy the entire country. And, assuming they are successful, Russia certainly won’t have the capacity to invade a country like Poland.
Europe will have ample time to prepare to fight Russia and detach themselves from US-reliance, so long as everyone can get on board and commit.
BetDownBanjaxed@reddit
Militarily I agree with you, though Moldova is definitely under threat. Other Eastern European countries are getting taken by internal capitulation in the same way the US has.
leavezukoalone@reddit
Agreed. Disinformation is Russia’s greatest weapon, and one of the few things they are really fucking good at. Misinformation is going to get so much worse as AI technology improves.
If it can be weaponized, mankind will find a way.
BetDownBanjaxed@reddit
It's weird they even bother to fabricate anything these days mind you, side the cult just believes everything it's spoonfed without questioning it.
Sochinsky@reddit
What about Baltic countries and it should not be immediately a new war. If I were Putin I would get all the resources from including people and prepare for a new war against Baltic countries. Let's say 2-3 years for refreshing all the stuff that have been lost and more sanctions lifted by the US + no war with Ukraine, because it's gone, I think other countries will start cooperating with Russia which helps them to restore resources. After that attack on Baltic countries and look at EU reaction, threat with nuclear weapon, invade other repeat threats, rely on Hungary and Slovakia + other possible countries with right wing power in politics, piece by piece get other countries.
RearAdmiralP@reddit
No, I am not concerned about Vladimir Putin. He is not a cartoon villain. The krauts, on the other hand, are very concerning. Germany should have remained broken up after WWII.
sailboat_magoo@reddit
I'm in the UK, so he was already here and successful in the Brexit campaign.
It took almost a decade and for things to get a lot worse, but the people here finally voted in a new government that's desperately trying to improve things, despite all the press being against them. I'm not saying that I agree with everything they're doing, but I see the intent, and I think they have a lot of really bad options that they have to pick from.
The danger isn't Russia invading, a la Ukraine. Russia couldn't even take Ukraine, so I'm not worried. The danger is, as always, cyber attacks and propaganda. And people are turning away from it in the UK, which is a very good thing, and hopefully bodes well for the rest of the world managing to get its shit together eventually.
rachaeltalcott@reddit
I have thought through places I could plausibly flee to if the US left NATO, allied with Russia, and went to war against Europe and the rest of NATO. I don't think that's likely, at least not in the near term. But I walk every day past a wall riddled with bullet holes and a plaque commemorating the people who died there in the last world war. It feels less distant than when I lived in the US.
Champsterdam@reddit
What’s the game plan in Russia when Putin dies? He’s not exactly an up and coming star.
CptPatches@reddit
Probably back to Medvedev.
phiiota@reddit
EU member states has own nuclear weapons and collectively can handle a beaten up Russia.🇷🇺
im-here-for-tacos@reddit
I moved to Poland in October knowing that this scenario would play out and I'm not concerned. If anything, I'm probably living my best life. And honestly, if it comes down to it, I'll fight for my new home. My family was forced to emigrate from Poland because of WWII, so I have a chip on my shoulder, to say the least. I don't expect most "expats"/immigrants to feel the same way.
One thing I'm starting to notice though is that people have sharpened up to what's going on in the US and are trying to distance themselves from whatever is plaguing them. I'm hoping this means they'll be smarter with their consumption of information online and with their votes, but we'll see. Now that the US has fallen to Russian disinformation, it'll become even harder to fight against it.
Historical_Cattle633@reddit
Highly unlikely that Europe will have any direct military problems with Russia in the near future. Russia in 4 years could take Ukraine, let alone Europe. A nuclear war is extremely unlikely, if it didn’t happen with Cuba Crisis, I highly doubt it’ll happen with this war. You can sleep with no issues tonight. In 20-30 or 50 years things might change, not for now.
ultimate_zigzag@reddit
IMO Russia does threaten the EU but only in the long term. They are kind of spent for now because of Ukraine and the subsequent expansion of NATO. But they do have a history of expansionism and bullying smaller states. There will come a time when they try to expand farther west, but they need to build up their military and economy again first.
nimenionotettu@reddit
Even people in Finland aren’t bothered one bit. But does not mean that they are not born ready.