Pilot Supply and Demand
Posted by cronalfman@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 125 comments
tl;dr: Red line high = bad for pilots. Red line low = good for pilots
Takeaways:
- The 2021 to mid-2024 hiring spree was unprecedented
- Demand for pilots is currently high historically speaking
- Supply is at an all-time high, making hiring just as competitive as the early 90s, post-9/11, and the Great Recession
Predicted Data:
- Supply – expect one more year of elevated numbers due to the momentum from those that started during the great hiring wave. And, if we look at the past, new CPL issuance typically lags the drop-off in hiring. Then, perhaps a decline in new pilots as financing options are reduced (based on anecdotal accounts, e.g., Meritize pulling out of aviation) and folks realizing the “fog a mirror” days are over.
- Demand – only one data point for 2025 so far. FAPA reports 526 new hires for Jan 2025. That and Delta's President expects U.S. airlines to hire approximately 5,000 pilots.
Disclaimer: a lot of factors aren’t captured (furloughs, regional hiring, etc.) but this is the data that is readily available. So, when you hear some flight school claim “it’s never been a better time to become a pilot” think twice. Yes, demand for pilots is high but what they’re not telling you is that there is already an overwhelming amount of low-time pilots eager to find a job.
Data sources:
Alexstankie@reddit
Another factor - cross-border e-commerce accounts for 50% of air cargo capacity out of china, and about 30% worldwide into the USA. If the de minimus exemption goes away for shipments in April, as planned - much of that will switch to ocean shipments, dropping demand for cargo flights (and pilots) significantly.
ForeignMess1777@reddit
You have no idea what you’re talking about
Alexstankie@reddit
Just a guess - but I do import/export for a living
findquasar@reddit
Can you explain more about how that works and what makes you think this?
Genuinely interested, since you do import/export for a living.
Alexstankie@reddit
Today, If a company ships from a foreign country to an end customer in the USA, and the price the customer paid is under $800, there is zero tariff and zero customs brokerage fees. It's expected in April this exemption goes away.
Let's use a $50 laptop case from China as an example. Right now this has a 20% base tariff, a 25% section 301 penalty tariff, plus 10% from the most recent executive order. 65% Total Tariff.
If I ship that directly to a customer by airplane, I have to declare the value as $50, which means $32.50 in tariffs +$20 in customs brokerage fees + $6 in shipping for the one item. $108.50 total by air.
If I use a cargo ship to a USA warehouse, I can declare my ($10) cost to make it, instead of ($50) msrp, as the value. Let's pretend that's $10. This means $6.50 in tariffs. The brokerage fee is a flat rate - so it's now spread across the entire container I imported, so it drops to $0.10 per item. Shipping also drops to $1.00 per item to get to the USA. Then I ship it USPS ground advantage to the customer for $4.80. We're at $62.18 by ship.
De Minimis shipments accounted for over 1 Million Metric Tons of cargo last year. Roughly 10% of all air cargo volume. There's no way it doesn't have some impact on reducing pilot demand. Chat GPT says it would reduce air cargo flights by 5%, Grok 3 says it will reduce air cargo flights by 10%. But who knows.
No politics here either - Biden signed the first executive order, and Trump signed the second, only shifting implementation by a few months. Bipartisan and happening no matter who you vote for.
findquasar@reddit
Oh that makes sense. That’s a huge margin hit, so that would definitely impact the decision to utilize air vs. sea shipments.
Thanks for taking the time to explain! It sounds like you do know what you’re talking about.
branda22@reddit
Wont it impact shipments in general? Why will it switch to ocean shipments, because of cost?
Alexstankie@reddit
Today, If a company ships from a foreign country to an end customer in the USA, and the price the customer paid is under $800, there is zero tariff and zero customs brokerage fees. It's expected in April this exemption goes away.
Let's use a $50 laptop case from China as an example. Right now this has a 20% base tariff, a 25% section 301 penalty tariff, plus 10% from the most recent executive order. 65% Total Tariff.
If I ship that directly to a customer by airplane, I have to declare the value as $50, which means $32.50 in tariffs +$20 in customs brokerage fees + $6 in shipping for the one item. $108.50 total by air.
If I use a cargo ship to a USA warehouse, I can declare my ($10) cost to make it, instead of ($50) msrp, as the value. Let's pretend that's $10. This means $6.50 in tariffs. The brokerage fee is a flat rate - so it's now spread across the entire container I imported, so it drops to $0.10 per item. Shipping also drops to $1.00 per item to get to the USA. Then I ship it USPS ground advantage to the customer for $4.80. We're at $62.18 by ship.
De Minimis shipments accounted for over 1 Million Metric Tons of cargo last year. Roughly 10% of all air cargo volume. There's no way it doesn't have some impact on reducing pilot demand. Chat GPT says it would reduce air cargo flights by 5%, Grok 3 says it will reduce air cargo flights by 10%. But who knows.
No politics here either - Biden signed the first executive order, and Trump signed the second, only shifting implementation by a few months. Bipartisan and happening no matter who you vote for.
dopexile@reddit
The airline industry has been incredibly cyclical since the Wright Brothers took flight.
Spoiler alert... recessions happen and then demand falls. People cut back their vacation travel and corporations cut back their travel budgets. Instead of hiring airlines will be laying people off.
robdabear@reddit
I'm not trying to be a dick but I constantly see "have realistic expectations" from people already in airliner seats immediately followed up by "no one can predict the future." If the expectation is "sorry, the party's over" I accept that for what it is, but it seems everyone wants to have it both ways. This place is starting to turn into APC.
hardyboyyz@reddit
Realistically, I think the party is over and we're going to be waiting for the next one.
A good number of us "already in airliner seats" had to put in time to get these seats. It took me 17 years to make it to the seat I hoped to be in when I started. I actually gave up on it for a while and started down a different path. But then things changed and I was able to shift back to my original plan.
You've got to stay flexible to make it. If you can't (for whatever reason) then you are depending on luck.
robdabear@reddit
I'm genuinely not trying to sound bitter or pick on this guy in particular, I still think he's right. I myself missed the wave, it is what it is, and I have no preconceived notions about what my career will look like. If it takes that long or longer (or even if I never get to where I want to be), so be it, I enjoyed the process, can still call myself a pilot, and I'm aware it's a helluva lot better for people in my situation now than it used to be. The same can't be said for a lot of people who just got into it for the "wrong" reasons (i.e. not having realistic expectations). I meet them all the time and it's grating, but it does inspire a frustration with the apparent lack of advice from people on this sub who seem to assume that everyone is in it because they think they'll be slinging WBs for Delta in a few years. More often than not, I feel like I've been told to give up by people who share the same passion as I do, and that sucks. No one wants to hear that even if there's a bit of truth to it. Of course no one knows the future, but there's a dissonance in expectation when the people ahead of you are telling you "sorry, bud, sucks for you." (And no, I don't think that's what you're saying, but I see it here all the time).
But hey, what can ya do but keep on or move on? Apologies for the wall of text haha
dopexile@reddit
It's a game of musical chairs at the end of the day. Too many people trying to be pilots and not enough seats.
A lot of people are going to need to leave the industry because they won't get a seat.
Does that mean your dreams are crushed? No, but things are going to be more competitive. You'll might have to work harder and it might take longer than you were expecting. A lot of the people who are less motivated and don't want it as much will drop out.
robdabear@reddit
Yeah like I said, it is what it is. My only concern is whether the demand for instructors stabilizes somewhat, but who knows? At the end of the day I know what my goals are and can only focus on accomplishing them to the best of my ability. My ire is directed toward the "fuck you, I got mine" crowd for having the bad luck of starting at the wrong time. Oh well.
hardyboyyz@reddit
Yeah there's a little bit of that out there. We're all just people. Some of us are horrible communicators or lacking in empathy. If you really love it, and it's all you want to do, you'll ride it out. That's all you can do.
dopexile@reddit
Have realistic expectations means you don't plan to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars going to ATP and then immediately plan on being upgraded to a transatlantic 787 captain flying to Europe and making $300k a year. Some people will likely need to choose a different career or pay their dues working at a regional as an FO for a long time.
There are lots of things that hit the airline industry that can't be predicted. September 11th is a good example... one unpredictable changed the industry for decades.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
We are definitely in an oversupply now.
However I don’t believe any predictions in those sources or that chart. Way too many unknowns.
Best to get comfortable where you now with the money you are making now.
EHP42@reddit
Yeah, the line should end at 2025. No amount of digging can predict what the landscape will look like in 6 months, much less 5 years like this chart shows.
rckid13@reddit
The retirement numbers for the next 5 years are huge, but something like age 67 passing can suddenly bring those numbers from 2000+ one year to zero the next year. It can be really unpredictable.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
Wait till you find out airlines have enough to reserves and are for the most part, prepared for the retirements already.
rckid13@reddit
How do you figure that? United has 6,000 retirements, or about 35% of their seniority list between now and 2035. A public company is forced by their board and shareholders to keep trying to grow profits. There's no way they retire 35% of the seniority list without hiring another pilot and also without crashing their stock price. At 15,000 total pilots they were forcing new hires into captain and wide body slots to staff the flying they currently have.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
They have to hire 600 a year to match the retirements and they’ve been hiring already for that. Idk how you see a massive hiring wave coming.
Forced upgrades aren’t happening and aren’t even in talks.
rckid13@reddit
When did I say massive hiring wave? I said the majors will have to keep hiring to replace retirements, and you just agreed with me by saying they need to hire 600 per year to replace retirements. They can't stop hiring.
From 2001 to 2014 each major hired less than 600 TOTAL pilots so 600 per year isn't doom and gloom.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
Yea we are in agreement. 90% of people on this sub think it’s gonna shoot up to 1200 a year per airline.
They’re hiring 500-600 a year now and there’s not a ton of movement still. I’m just saying that’s the normalized hiring for now, it’s gonna be slow and steady for years to come.
Most of the pilots I fly with still think they’ll be at a regional for a year and move on, like no. That isn’t happening welcome to captain upgrade lol
rckid13@reddit
There are things that can affect it. I think 600 per year will be a normal year for the retirements. United and Delta both have a bunch of airplanes ordered, but both of them had to slow down or stop hiring for a while because both Boeing and Airbus have major delivery delays. If suddenly one of those manufacturers can deliver a bunch there might be a couple of years of big hiring. A recession or age 67 passing can have the opposite effect and create a few years of zero hiring.
swakid8@reddit
This new hire captains that didn’t want to be forced were able to get released from taking the upgrade….
WB FOs forced onto the WB had a opportunity to escape the fleet back to NB flying.
Both WB FO and NB CA have trended senior again at United….
Joe_Littles@reddit
I think what rc is saying is that the comment is rubbish. The company was at the time operating on thin staffing. No airline with how thin margins are - is going to willingly hire a 30% excess of staff to prep for a decade of retirements. That’s just pure nonsense.
Joe_Littles@reddit
I’m amazed that someone who has purportedly been in the airlines for at least 2-3 years really thinks that this is what’s going on.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
You and I aren’t at legacies. Legacies absolutely do not run thin on pilots.
As someone at an airline for 2 years all I see is a slow steady hiring rate in our future. One that isn’t much higher than now.
Joe_Littles@reddit
There are a ton of retirements coming. Idc what airline you’re at, they staff for now (the near future), not for 5 years from now.
They are all trying to grow and that’s good for everyone, assuming the demand is there to fill the planes. There was some moderation of growth last year and you’re seeing yields improve. I think hiring in 2025 will be similar to 2024 (on the better side tho), and 2026-2028 will be a relatively good period. Beyond that I think we start to wind down to a new normal, more sustained rate of hiring. I would absolutely do everything I could to get to my forever job prior to 2028.
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
600-700 a year per legacy. I doubt we see much more than that.
Legacies do definitely hire for the future. Talk to any WB FO or CA. They aren’t flying because they have so many pilots.
They’ve all seen the retirements on the wall for years, you’d be a fool to think those numbers are going to surprise the airlines and force a massive hiring wave.
bobby_valentino865@reddit
A little disheartening reading this post and the comments. Would I be a fool to continue my current plans to become a pilot?
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
That’s up to you.
Are you flying because you want to be a pilot and genuinely love flying or because you like the salary possibilities?
bobby_valentino865@reddit
The salary possibilities and career path are definitely attractive.. but it’s something I became interested in in 2015 ( I was a desk agent who met tons of pilots that told me the shortage was coming) and years later I still have the itch. I’m worried it’s been too long, and school is expensive. (I still haven’t figured out the best way to get trained as it is)
InGeorgeWeTrust_@reddit
If you love flying there’s always a job for you. Just don’t expect a ton of money.
I don’t want to fly for free but shoot I would if it’s the only way I could fly.
Triggs390@reddit
It’s definitely a lot harder now than when they were hiring anyone who had a pulse a few years ago.
scarpozzi@reddit
What's the definition of a low-time pilot? I'm trying to buy a plane and start racking up some time.
I know 300 hours is commercial minimums. How many hours do you need to get a job paying $100k minimum?
Few_Party294@reddit
Try to get above 10k and you should be good
Flying21811@reddit
871 hours
Dependent-Place-4795@reddit
There is no exact number
Fit_Treat_1039@reddit
With this new administration expect things to get much worse.
Which_Escape_2776@reddit
Hahaha things were running good in 2016-2020. Dream on bud
Flying21811@reddit
Okay bud. Dream on. No one knows what’s going to happen. Could be good… could be bad.
Which_Escape_2776@reddit
So here’s my take. Airline don’t hire without a year in advance base on the economy. The reason there was a huge hiring wave in 2023 was because 2021-2022 created a huge mess with low hours. This resulted in the airlines to get pilots a good early retirement package and those including for regular retirement. This in turn caused the big wave because now people more than ever wanted to go on vacation which drove revenue up and which also caused the pilot shortage that we know today. The airlines are always a year behind in terms of hiring or catching up with the economy. The reason why there was a shortage in hiring for 2024 was because of Boeing issues and strikes. This made sense because the company had a new ceo that was trying to cut corners and make huge profit for shareholders. Looking at the number base on the economy we were in a recession but the political party at the time refused to say those words. The economy was so bad that hiring in every sector was facing surge in applications. With that being said I do think we are still feeling the poor economic state from the last administration. What is changing…. Boeing is expanding their operations in North Carolina but that is going to take 3 year I believe to be fully operable. I do know that they lost a lot of revenue when they were caught in taking advantage of tax payer funding which definitely got boeing mad that they’re not going to get away from it anymore. Pipelines are going to open again, regulations will be less stricter, tax will be lowered for this upcoming year so I don’t think there will a good hiring wave this wave. Maybe a little below normal. My speculation is that is 2026-2028 will see a good hiring wave. So for now this seems bad for people trying to get in ASAP.
Yesthisisme50@reddit
I think based on 2021-2023 and now currently, the consensus is no one knows.
zero_xmas_valentine@reddit
Yeah this is maybe one of the more useless posts in the history of this sub.
Whole_String266@reddit
What’s wrong with you, this is one of the more interesting posts we get on here.
ApatheticSkyentist@reddit
Rivaled only perhaps by this comment?
Don’t hate on people who share their guess thoughts. At least it’s data driven with a fancy graph and oh boy do we pilot love graphs.
AborgTheMachine@reddit
Idk, I've always been partial to charts
HateJobLoveManU@reddit
I prefer diagrams but I respect your position
ApatheticSkyentist@reddit
Everyone loves that moment on the oral when the examiner mentions the dreaded oxygen requirements for unpressed cruise charts buried somewhere deep in the AFM.
zero_xmas_valentine@reddit
This is the /r/flying equivalent of the Patrick Mahomes stats post in /r/NFL and that's not a compliment.
Your boos mean nothing, I've seen what makes you cheer.
cronalfman@reddit (OP)
There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics :)
YogurtclosetOk8901@reddit
-Mark Twain
Yesthisisme50@reddit
Stevie Nicks likes little lies
so_jelly@reddit
How do you quantify "odds of being born"?
Yesthisisme50@reddit
Idk people smarter than both of us did
confusedguy1212@reddit
There is one thing this industry refuses to always take under account and that’s technology.
Tesla has self driving albeit supervised cars in basically unstructured environments.
SpaceX takes off and lands back rockets autonomously.
How long do you realistically think this whole industry has left?
amended-tab@reddit
Well, until humans trust computers more than other humans alone. You tell me. Together maybe. Alone, probably never. Ever seen terminator?
confusedguy1212@reddit
Ever boarded the AirTrain in Kennedy? What about Waymo? People of 50-100 years ago would have responded to what I said the same exact way you did if I mentioned this about the job of the train conductor or about the job of the taxi driver.
Never is a very very very very long time. Not the word I’d choose.
findquasar@reddit
Most people don’t want their transport to be able to be fooled by a street cone though.
confusedguy1212@reddit
Given that the only aviation related domain we’d need to rely on a similar vision based system is on ground movement then my response is - people also don’t want to be G strung in their seats every time a human smashes a wing into another tail.
Seems to be about similar percentage occurrences. Only difference is the human gets worse with the stress in our lives and the computer is getting better with time passing.
NuttPunch@reddit
I think you are grossly overestimating the tech now, but more importantly, the talent at the aircraft manufacturers to pull this off. Last I checked, Boeing/Airbus weren't FAANG nor a startup with potentially valuable RSUs. They are like the CFI job of tech at best. Boeing had to outsource their software to India and it killed a bunch of people. But sure, we're going to get the waymo 797 any day now. Technology is starting to become a pandora's box. In many industries we are operating legacy machines that people currently working really don't understand how they fundamentally work. Like that gas pipeline company on the east coast that was a victim of ransomware because someone opened an email. They literally could not figure out how their manual backups worked because no one was employed who understood it. The air force is having difficulty manufacturing for their needs because everyone involved in some of their designs are dead and the drawings (yes physical drawings) are lost or in a shorthand no one understands. They are having to reverse engineer their own equipment. We can go on endlessly, but lets just say I'm not exactly as optimistic as you that they are going to have single or no pilot ops as some technological break through anytime soon.
It's not happening, it's mostly fluff to pump their image and stock. I'd break this down more but you're not going to be convinced anyway.
confusedguy1212@reddit
Heard about Boom? What about SpaceX and their Starship reaching Australia in 45 minutes?
Where here does it say that tomorrow’s tech advances have to come with yesterday’s duopoly?
Science-A@reddit
Except that Tesla doesn't really have that. Musk sold that idea , but it isn't reality.
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-commentary/elon-musk-tesla-crash-1234930544/
confusedguy1212@reddit
Right they discovered that hardware 3 didn’t pan out. But hardware 4 owners haven’t touched the wheel in many many miles and while it’s true this isn’t a 100% system yet, it’s 99% today.
It’s okay you can keep burying your head in the ditch if you’d like, technology isn’t going to wait for you to agree for it to take your job away.
zero_xmas_valentine@reddit
Have you ever driven a "self driving" Tesla? I have, and that only kills me and maybe one other person if it fucks up.
confusedguy1212@reddit
Every day. Haven’t had to disconnect yet since v13. Maybe you drove an earlier version or an HW3 car?
zero_xmas_valentine@reddit
Idfk, it was a friend's. You'd have to pay me more than my airline does to daily something produced by Musk even if it worked correctly. All I know is it would get awfully confused about edge lines and when not to change lanes on a clear VFR day on a very standardly-marked freeway. And that's before it rains or snows.
confusedguy1212@reddit
Emotional dude. Sorry your feelings are hurt.
zero_xmas_valentine@reddit
"Hey this thing works really well for everyone"
"Actually no, it didn't work for me"
"Damn bro sorry your feelies got hurt"
This shit is rapidly reminding me why I stopped using Reddit to begin with.
confusedguy1212@reddit
You forgot the “idfk” and “something produced by Musk” which aren’t concrete rational arguments against the topic at hand but really just emotional retorts.
CobaltGate@reddit
No head burying; I do like factual data however.
120SR@reddit
Agreed, however, look at how long it’s taking Boeing and airbus to certify models that were supposed to be finished many years ago. 321XLR, max 7 & 10, 777x, etc. On top of this, they can’t manufacture their existing models at desired rates and order books are creeping up on a decade. Like anybody, These companies want to make money today, and they have customers sitting in front of them with cash in their hands.
Just like rolls Royce pulling out of making boom SuperSonics engine when they can focus on the bread and butter high bypass engines that they know will sell.
confusedguy1212@reddit
I don’t know about the first paragraph or rather have nothing to add. The bottom tho I agree a decade we have anything more is up for grabs.
Probably 15-20 years and this career is history in my opinion.
120SR@reddit
What is certain out to 15-20 years?
confusedguy1212@reddit
Fair point but… this career is unique in the sense that you need it to work and last a whole employment mostly with one or two employers at the most.
So in a sub that invites a lot of discussion about career starters and changes and especially on a topic such as OP discussing the venerable “pilot shortage”, I feel the need to bring this dose of reality up.
This career is dying. It’s a fact.
Brief-Focus-593@reddit
I hope we are automated, then no more rat race to a legacy
FlowerGeneral2576@reddit
So the 2021-2023 once-in-a-century great hiring wave created a boom of people going to flight school hoping to ride the wave and get to the majors in record time. The majors hired the people that they needed, the wave ended, demand normalized to pre-pandemic levels (as shown by the chart), but now all the people that started flying because of the wave are too late to ride it.
So one can conclude that current conditions are directly the result of too many people entering the industry rather than airlines not hiring as supply is high but demand is normal. Everyone that started flying in 2021-2023 are now reaching 1500 hours all around the same time.
So the question is: will the pool of people interested in this career slowly start to become dissuaded from entering the industry due to current conditions, thereby allowing supply to normalize in time?
I predict yes, save for major economic downturn causing demand for pilots to crash.
BestSanchez@reddit
I wonder how many people that actually is though? The wave might have persuaded some people that were on the fence and already considering aviation, but I'm not sure how many people outside the industry even knew about it. I'm an avgeek and didn't even know about it. I just started building hours recently and am now hearing about this wave I missed.
Just saying this influx might not actually be that big, but I don't have any numbers...
J0E_Blow@reddit
Yes, but this sub and the industry are going to have an absolute SHIT-LOAD of people angry, bitching and moaning that Delta didn't hire them at 2,000 hours and that they were told this is cyclical. Later wages might stagnate.
rckid13@reddit
2021-2023 didn't have that many retirements. The big age 65 retirement numbers at the legacy carriers are in the years 2025-2035. It sucks that some people missed the last wave, but I don't think they're too late. The majors are going to have to keep hiring to replace those retirements. No public company wants to shrink.
HotRecommendation283@reddit
And now the US has thousands of surplus people holding ATP-CTPs they will never use.
Fucking bleak
Dependent-Place-4795@reddit
We are so cooked
HotRecommendation283@reddit
Not even a daddy in the airlines will save you now. The new standard is a C-suite father to get in.
Dependent-Place-4795@reddit
I’m gonna be a charter pilot forever sadly. Maybe I should get another career lol
HotRecommendation283@reddit
lol, now imagine you are someone that just recently got cleared to fly xDDD
Life is one cruel joke after another.
Diver_105@reddit
Just as bad as post 9/11? Tell that to a pilot who got furloughed 3 times in 2 years and needed 5000 TT to get on with frontier in 2006
NuttPunch@reddit
I think their basic premise is correct. It's going to however be a slow bleed, almost innocuous in comparison to the stabbing that was 2001 & 2008.
branda22@reddit
No one can predict the future.
Your supply projections are based on CPL numbers, not ATP numbers—yet many pilots with an ATP never go to the airlines, and a significant number fly internationally.
Hiring 5,000 pilots a year at the major airlines is an impressive figure, especially considering there was a time when they brought on fewer than 500 annually.
InvestigatorShort824@reddit
Reversion to the mean is probably the best guess. Just eyeballing I’d say somewhere around 9,000 excess pilots - which suggests things should improve. Can’t say how quickly or how significantly.
NuttPunch@reddit
People really just don't want to admit it's likely going to hit a strong point of stagnation.
InvestigatorShort824@reddit
Well shit.
7layeredAIDS@reddit
You can never know and especially now you can really never know.
I do not want to get in a political debate here, but I think we can all agree what is happening now in the US is major political changes in international policy that can have significant effects on the economy (good or bad). The amount people travel for business and leisure is directly affected by the economy.
The only thing we KNOW is expected forced retirements for each airline. Their effect on this hiring environment can be almost negligible depending on the spending power of corporations or the leisure traveler.
Long way of saying you can’t predict the future.
J0E_Blow@reddit
Yeah bro, the economy is about to get so strong.
aypho@reddit
Unfortunately, I don't think we even know that. I wouldn't be surprised if 67/68 makes a surprise appearance soon somehow.
Suspicious_Rough_829@reddit
I’ll be livid if that sneaks it in somehow. Get these boomers the fuck out, they’ve fucked over the younger generation enough already in plenty of other economic aspects
7layeredAIDS@reddit
Well then you laterally shift the curve, and it is known all over again. The economy is a much bigger influence. If things go really great, it helps push 67 along. If things go poorly, we really don’t need to hold on to pilots two more years. But either way you simply translate the curve over 2-3 years.
7layeredAIDS@reddit
I will say though that I appreciate the OP sharing the data as it IS cool to see! I did not mean to poo-poo the post!
cronalfman@reddit (OP)
Thanks! I was mainly interested in seeing where we are currently v. the past. Helps to answer the "I have 1500 hours, where's my job" question that we hear everyday.
shadyshackk@reddit
Anybody know how demand for military pilots is? I am hoping to get a pilot slot once I finish my bachelors.
TheRauk@reddit
Age 85 baby!
ArchiStanton@reddit
Crew meal: prunes and mushed carrots
ForeignMess1777@reddit
Nobody with jobs cares
SubarcticFarmer@reddit
I think the chart would be better served adding a percentage of over supply vs a flat number.
MDT230@reddit
So I am assuming I won’t be able to get a call anytime soon after reaching ATP mins? Got it.
redditburner_5000@reddit
This prediction is right on. Unless it's way off.
boldoldpilot@reddit
60% of the time, it works every time
redditburner_5000@reddit
Usually.
-Badger3-@reddit
That's a great observation, maybe.
AnnualWhole4457@reddit
I think it's perfectly exact, give or take most of it.
SSMDive@reddit
While this is super interesting data for the past... Something people should really look at. Any projection is at best a guess and I'd not bother trying or would not put much faith in it.
VeggieMeatTM@reddit
'94, '04, '14, COVID shift to '21, '31...
Any bankers want to make me a security based on this data?
cronalfman@reddit (OP)
Nice observation. Everyone wants green to the moon right now though!
Awkward_Algae_9631@reddit
Single pilot ops are on the horizon (10-20 years) too. Whether that actually happens, I don’t know, but personally I expect it to happen eventually.
DudeSchlong@reddit
All depends on aircraft manufacturing
Science-A@reddit
Well, not 'all' but certainly 'some'.
IFR_Flyer@reddit
This is like 5th on the list of factors affecting pilot hiring imho
TheGeoninja@reddit
As I understand it, there are three major “bottlenecks” in the pilot employment market.
The first, as you pointed out, is the number of existing certificated pilots in the job market right now is definitely higher than other points in time. I think this issue is heightened to an extent because of people thinking being a pilot is a great career path and perhaps after these two high profile airline crashes, dissuades the people only looking for the high paycheck away and instead encourages people that have a genuine interest in aviation because dying in a crash doesn’t make for a great Instagram reel.
Second, there is a supply constraint on airframes from both Boeing and Airbus. The US major carriers continue to demonstrate that they want to keep expanding where they can, if United had a negative outlook on the economy, they certainly would not be planning crazy routes like flights to Nuuk, Greenland and Mongolia.
Third, insurance rules everything. There would potentially be a lot more opportunities outside of flight instructing for lower time pilots if insurance rates were lower. People talk about crazy insurance requirements that make certain operations cost prohibitive to operate in a variety of ways and it is resulting in some distortions in the market. A flight instructor was telling me about the trouble he had getting added on a client’s insurance policy despite having hundreds of hours in the same make and model of aircraft.
If I am wrong or missing something, please let me know.
120SR@reddit
To add to the third point, the bottleneck of few low time jobs has only tightened. The only job is decent quantity is the flight instructor Ponzi scheme which we’re now seeing over saturated. Every skydiving operation I work at got 2-6 resumes a week, nearly every day a pilot came in looking for a job. This is an operation that employs 2-4 total pilots
AlotaFajita@reddit
How did the pilot supply drop so much from 2020 to 2021?
FlowerGeneral2576@reddit
Early retirements
cronalfman@reddit (OP)
I'm guessing Covid caused a bit of hesitation. If you were thinking of starting in 2020, you likely wouldn't reach the CPL check ride until 2021.
Rictor_Scale@reddit
For any potential new private pilots (depending on your school) expect many delays due to weather cancelations, maintenance cancelations, the DPE shortage, your CFI going to the airlines, plane pulled for someone else's checkride, etc. Try to book plane slots out as far as your system allows knowing several will be canceled.
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
tl;dr: Red line high = bad for pilots. Red line low = good for pilots
Takeaways:
Predicted Data:
Disclaimer: a lot of factors aren’t captured (furloughs, regional hiring, etc.) but this is the data that is readily available. So, when you hear some flight school claim “it’s never been a better time to become a pilot” think twice. Yes, demand for pilots is high but what they’re not telling you is that there is already an overwhelming amount of low-time pilots eager to find a job.
Data sources:
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