Greenland cummulated melt area evolution in time
Posted by hitchinvertigo@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 45 comments
Posted by hitchinvertigo@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 45 comments
Thedogdrinkscoffee@reddit
Make Greenland green again!
X X
aiLiXiegei4yai9c@reddit
Ironically, there's probably "gold in them that hills", but Trump's obsession with Greenland was originally, allegedly, a Kremlin psyop. Which he is now doubling down on.
Thing is tho, when enough of that ice has melted, hydrocarbons/minerals will kind of be a moot point. There's not going to be a living, thriving, global middle class around to purchase all those solar panels, BEV's, wind mills, what not, manufactured in autocratic China. We're all going to be scraping by, handling absurd amounts of climate refugees and waging resource wars against each other.
Calling it now: Europe vs. Russia is going to become a hot war this decade. The US will focus 100% on "Jina" and abandon the EU altogether. This is how we collapse, geopolitically.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
The only real existential threat to Europe is waves of mass migration from MENA and other Europeans. What exactly is Russia going to do?
aiLiXiegei4yai9c@reddit
I disagree.
The threat to the West in general is our unsustainable way of life. We're not going to have abundant energy powering this absurd indulgence in the near future.
Then we have the climate change effects, which are already huge.
Mass migration / trafficking is going to peak, but it is in itself unsustainable. That dynamic is also dependent on energy abundance. Like I said, we're standing at the energy cliff now. Russia vs. Ukraine is 100% about energy.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
I agree that the unsustainable nature of western life is the number one threat but that isnt a coherent geopolitical entity.
But people will migrate with or without fossil fuels.
As for personally supporting Ukraine... wtf? I will not protest my government supporting the war but its not my problem, or my family or my friends. If any of them wanted to go to ukraine to fight I would be horrified and disgusted.
aiLiXiegei4yai9c@reddit
Fossil fuels is the how and the why we have migration "crises". Take away the cheap fuel, and people will not be able to migrate. Villains like Erdögan, the cartels and Putin will not be able to weaponize trafficking as easily. This is where we're heading. Like it or not. Simple arithmetics.
As for your government supporting the war in Ukraine, I guess there's not much you can do about that. I'm going to, as safe as possible, fight fascism as much as I can. But there comes a point for me where I'm not going to endanger my loved ones, and this is when I'm shutting my yap. I, for one, will eventually welcome our new insect overlords.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
People will absolutely be able to migrate without fossil fuels... like they have done for 10 000 years.
And that is ignoring that hydrocarbon fuels arent going anywhere in the next 50 years at least, even if they are not cheap.
Substantial_Impact69@reddit
Where are they going to go exactly? Up to the heavily fortified borders, and if they then get in, then what? Delaying the inevitable?
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
A nation with an ageing population and shrinking energy budget isnt going to be holding a militarised border indefinitely.
Substantial_Impact69@reddit
What year do you think this is? Buddy, the major military powers have hardware that would make your head spin, and would be positively gleeful to use it against anyone for any reason.
Yeah, that Mongol Horde became a lot less impressive when it can be gunned down with an AK-47 in this scenario. Also, again, you didn’t address my question about what these people would do? Are they subsistence farmers, all of them? Would they be able to maintain any kind of organization or cohesion? Further more, they’re still dealing with the same issues they’re fleeing from.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
i see you have dedicated 0 thought to this and are not interested in it either
Substantial_Impact69@reddit
What are you talking about? I’m able to properly articulate points, you’re not, sorry.
aiLiXiegei4yai9c@reddit
There are still going to be hydrocarbons, sure. Peak oil does not mean oil vanishes. I'm talking about the price of coal/oil going to go vertical. This is to do with EROEI. One of the costs of fossil fuels right now is global instability. We wage wars for hydrocarbons. That makes them expensive.
AB-1987@reddit
It would be nato vs russia. But do you really think russia would attack a nato nation? even if they want to expand like in past centuries, wouldn’t they try to take other non-nato nations first?
aiLiXiegei4yai9c@reddit
1st: Nato is dead in the water. 2nd: Putin would absolutely attack a NATO member. He is desperate.
Extension_Frame_5701@reddit
Nominative determinism.
Damn you, Erik the Red!
getembass77@reddit
Vikings were playing the long game with the name
pippopozzato@reddit
Canadian here ... when does the line curve up like a hockey stick ?
throwawaytrumper@reddit
Another Canadian here! What you’re waiting for is the first “blue ocean event”. That’s when the arctic ice sheet melts all the way through instead of thinning each year.
This is significant because that ice sheet reflects most sunlight back out into space and ocean water absorbs almost all sunlight. An area the size of a continent switches from a big mirror to a big dark absorbing mass.
Once this happens the arctic will rapidly warm until most of it remains ice free year round. The effects on currents, wind patterns etc are hard to predict but at that point shit will drastically change.
Bit of fun before I go: the ice in Greenland rests on land rather than floating on the sea so when that melts it will raise sea levels dramatically. Also, there’s so much ice on Greenland that it has forced the continental plate down, when this ice melts Greenland will have something called isostatic rebound and the ground level will dramatically rise. This will cause massive and continuous earthquakes.
Good times are coming!
pippopozzato@reddit
Forget the BOE let's talk about the OAE ... Ocean Anoxic Event. We have so many events coming up . What are you going to wear ? I read A FAREWELL TO ICE-PETER WADHAMS . Basically when a BOE happens for humans on Earth I feel it's going to be lights out.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
I can assure you a BOE will happen and the next year you will still be paying taxes.
pippopozzato@reddit
Funny but without ever talking to my son about taxes my daughter told me that my son says the same thing I always say ... "only thing I need to do is die & pay taxes".
hitchinvertigo@reddit (OP)
Until recently, the mass was roughly in at state of balance. That is, the amount of snow falling on the surface was the same as the mass leaving the ice sheet as melt water runoff or discharge of icebergs. The Greenland Ice Sheet now loses more mass than it receives.
A model of the mass balance that includes data even before the satellite-era shows that since 1840, precipitation (in the form of snow) has risen by 12-20 %, the amount of melt water runoff has increased by approximately 60 %, and the output from glaciers has risen by approximately 40 %.
In total the loss of mass from the ice sheet equals a 25 mm addition to global sea level since 1840.
This development seems to have accelerated within the last decades. The largest ice loss rates since 1840 have occurred in the most recent decade. The mass loss in 2012 set a new record. According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the ice sheet lost 34 gigatonnes (1 Gt is 1 billion tonnes) annually in the period 1992-2001, corresponding to 0.1 mm annual sea level rise. In 2002-2011, the ice sheet lost 215 Gt per year (0.6 mm annual sea level rise).
The explanation for the increasing loss of mass is the rise in temperature.
The average annual air-temperatures measured since 2005 are the highest since measurements started in the late 1800s. The summer air-temperature in the Arctic in the last two decades is higher than at any point in time in the last 2000 years.
But also ocean temperatures have been rising - and that is most likely the explanation for why the discharge of ice from the marine terminating glaciers has accelerated. The ice sheet meets, so to speak, rising temperatures from above as well as from below.
The big questions
How will the ice sheet respond to the even larger increase in temperatures we should expect in the future? So far, the air temperature in the Arctic has risen by approximately 1.5°C. Climate models predict an increase of up to 5-10°C within this century.
How large will the loss of mass be in a warmer future? How much freshwater will the Greenland Ice Sheet add to global sea level? These are simple questions that are asked more and more frequently. For obvious reasons. We are dealing with the second largest mass of ice on the planet, and the mass loss affects the life of millions of people in many cities around the heavily populated coastal regions of the globe.
It is hard to say exactly what will happen in the future. The ice sheet is constantly flowing slowly from the center towards the ice sheet margin. But how will this flow react to increasing temperatures? And how will the ice sheet react to increased melt water in crevasses? What will happen to the ice sheet reflectivity with increased melt?
What exactly is going on at the edges of the marine terminating glaciers? How exactly does the ice sheet and the ocean interact? These are some of the questions scientists are trying to answer.
Small changes in the permafrost can have dramatic consequences
The definition of permafrost is when the temperature in the subsurface and the ground does not exceed 0°C in periods of more than 2 years. There is permafrost in most Artic areas.
The top layer is more easily influenced by the temperatures of the air and exceeds the freezing point some time during summer. This layer is called the active layer. In several areas the active layer of the permafrost has become deeper in recent years. Consequently, the permanently frozen subsurface is located further down. And even if the ground in 2-3 meters depth is permanently frozen, the temperature still rises to warmer and warmer negative temperatures in several places.
It can sound quite harmless if the temperature rises from minus 2 to minus 1.8°C. However, these seemingly moderate changes are warnings of a development that can be very difficult to revert, because the permafrost system is a very slowly reacting system.
If the permafrost thaws, it will have big consequences in rural districts. Houses, roads and pipelines can for example lose their stable and firm foundations. And animals can find difficulty in scaling the areas of land and finding prey.
The permafrost also binds enormous amounts of carbon consisting of decayed and transformed biological material above ground and as gas hydrates under the sea bed. If the permafrost thaws, large amounts of this carbon can be released into the atmosphere consisting of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). It has been estimated that the amount of carbon bound in the permafrost exceeds the amount of CO2 in the whole atmosphere.
The development of the permafrost has been monitored for the past decades. The development shows that the areas with permafrost and the actual depth of the permafrost are becoming smaller. According to the SWIPA report from the Arctic Council in 2011, the permafrost in the Arctic has become up to 2°C warmer and has therefore vanished in several places in the southern part of the Arctic. The southern border for permafrost has in this way retreated 30-80 km northward in Russia between 1970 and 2005 and 130 km in Quebec over the past 50 years.
Faster_and_Feeless@reddit
Any more recent images? A lot of old data in those pictures. Why stop at 2007 and 2012?
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
I think there will be two stages of melt. The one we are in now, of rapidly accelerating melt. Then once half of greenland has melted we might see a more chaotic melt, since it will then start interacting with the bedrock topography. You could see megalakes of meltwater trapped by ice dams which occasionally break open and trigger cooling periods in the arctic and north atlantic.
Thats all long term though.... by the time we reach that phase it might be several centuries into the future, sea levels might be 5+ meters and global average temperatures might be what, 4-8ºc higher? Its a none issue but it still makes me curious.
nommabelle@reddit
Hey /u/hitchinvertigo , thank you for your excellent post and ss! I don't see the image sources - could you please add the sources in your ss? Thanks!
hitchinvertigo@reddit (OP)
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/The-total-melt-area-of-the-Greenland-ice-sheet-increased-by-30-between-1979-and-2008_fig5_51997579
ProNuke@reddit
When it started raining at the Greenland ice sheet summit for the first time within the last few years it was clear just how bad this will be. With rising temperatures and falling rain, the melt will continue to speed up.
CivilizedMonstrosity@reddit
So you're telling me we're fucked
manntisstoboggan@reddit
On top of being already completely fucked from all angles..?
Yes. We are fucked.
disobey81@reddit
Global spitroast. It's no wonder people get overwhelmed by this information.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
its a 4d bukake of demon semen
mooky1977@reddit
Au contraire mon ami! Not those who choose to ignore it! Ignorance is bliss. I just which I was ignorant of the facts most days. :(
CockItUp@reddit
No, he's saying we're getting fucked. Mother nature isn't done with us.
therealsnoogler@reddit
It's missing the Trump melt-up
TechnoYogi@reddit
Wanna cum?
nommabelle@reddit
Hi, TechnoYogi. Thanks for contributing. However, your comment was removed from /r/collapse for:
Please refer to our subreddit rules for more information.
You can message the mods if you feel this was in error, please include a link to the comment or post in question.
fudgedhobnobs@reddit
Look at all those freshly mineable uranium deposits.
its so over
Suspicious-Concert12@reddit
That’s why it’s called Greenland
ApproximatelyExact@reddit
What's the issue? Chart says there's 60 Grice and negative three thousand seven hundred and fourth two publications per year.
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/hitchinvertigo:
Until recently, the mass was roughly in at state of balance. That is, the amount of snow falling on the surface was the same as the mass leaving the ice sheet as melt water runoff or discharge of icebergs. The Greenland Ice Sheet now loses more mass than it receives.
A model of the mass balance that includes data even before the satellite-era shows that since 1840, precipitation (in the form of snow) has risen by 12-20 %, the amount of melt water runoff has increased by approximately 60 %, and the output from glaciers has risen by approximately 40 %.
In total the loss of mass from the ice sheet equals a 25 mm addition to global sea level since 1840.
This development seems to have accelerated within the last decades. The largest ice loss rates since 1840 have occurred in the most recent decade. The mass loss in 2012 set a new record. According to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the ice sheet lost 34 gigatonnes (1 Gt is 1 billion tonnes) annually in the period 1992-2001, corresponding to 0.1 mm annual sea level rise. In 2002-2011, the ice sheet lost 215 Gt per year (0.6 mm annual sea level rise).
The explanation for the increasing loss of mass is the rise in temperature.
The average annual air-temperatures measured since 2005 are the highest since measurements started in the late 1800s. The summer air-temperature in the Arctic in the last two decades is higher than at any point in time in the last 2000 years.
But also ocean temperatures have been rising - and that is most likely the explanation for why the discharge of ice from the marine terminating glaciers has accelerated. The ice sheet meets, so to speak, rising temperatures from above as well as from below.
The big questions
How will the ice sheet respond to the even larger increase in temperatures we should expect in the future? So far, the air temperature in the Arctic has risen by approximately 1.5°C. Climate models predict an increase of up to 5-10°C within this century.
How large will the loss of mass be in a warmer future? How much freshwater will the Greenland Ice Sheet add to global sea level? These are simple questions that are asked more and more frequently. For obvious reasons. We are dealing with the second largest mass of ice on the planet, and the mass loss affects the life of millions of people in many cities around the heavily populated coastal regions of the globe.
It is hard to say exactly what will happen in the future. The ice sheet is constantly flowing slowly from the center towards the ice sheet margin. But how will this flow react to increasing temperatures? And how will the ice sheet react to increased melt water in crevasses? What will happen to the ice sheet reflectivity with increased melt?
What exactly is going on at the edges of the marine terminating glaciers? How exactly does the ice sheet and the ocean interact? These are some of the questions scientists are trying to answer.
Small changes in the permafrost can have dramatic consequences
The definition of permafrost is when the temperature in the subsurface and the ground does not exceed 0°C in periods of more than 2 years. There is permafrost in most Artic areas.
The top layer is more easily influenced by the temperatures of the air and exceeds the freezing point some time during summer. This layer is called the active layer. In several areas the active layer of the permafrost has become deeper in recent years. Consequently, the permanently frozen subsurface is located further down. And even if the ground in 2-3 meters depth is permanently frozen, the temperature still rises to warmer and warmer negative temperatures in several places.
It can sound quite harmless if the temperature rises from minus 2 to minus 1.8°C. However, these seemingly moderate changes are warnings of a development that can be very difficult to revert, because the permafrost system is a very slowly reacting system.
If the permafrost thaws, it will have big consequences in rural districts. Houses, roads and pipelines can for example lose their stable and firm foundations. And animals can find difficulty in scaling the areas of land and finding prey.
The permafrost also binds enormous amounts of carbon consisting of decayed and transformed biological material above ground and as gas hydrates under the sea bed. If the permafrost thaws, large amounts of this carbon can be released into the atmosphere consisting of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). It has been estimated that the amount of carbon bound in the permafrost exceeds the amount of CO2 in the whole atmosphere.
The development of the permafrost has been monitored for the past decades. The development shows that the areas with permafrost and the actual depth of the permafrost are becoming smaller. According to the SWIPA report from the Arctic Council in 2011, the permafrost in the Arctic has become up to 2°C warmer and has therefore vanished in several places in the southern part of the Arctic. The southern border for permafrost has in this way retreated 30-80 km northward in Russia between 1970 and 2005 and 130 km in Quebec over the past 50 years.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1i29bqv/greenland_cummulated_melt_area_evolution_in_time/m7clj01/
Sharoth01@reddit
Wow... so not good.
salamipope@reddit
ughhhh goddamn it
silverbackstack@reddit
Damn trump needs to take over Greenland so we can get this under check
HardNut420@reddit