Cyber Attack Risk and Your Mitigation Plan (CISA Report)
Posted by livestrong2109@reddit | preppers | View on Reddit | 30 comments
So over the weekend the CISA put out a report detailing how open to attack out national infrastructure really is. Mostly focused on energy, transportation, water, and communication.
What is your plan if you just lost natural gas, electricity, and water all at once. I ask this because I've come to realize that I'm prepared for several one off or a natural disaster. However a targeted and deliberate attack in the middle of winter would leave me with only a few days worth of resources. In spring, summer, and fall I'd last months
https://www.cisa.gov/news-events/news/target-rich-cyber-poor-strengthening-our-nations-critical-infrastructure-sectors
2708JMJ5712@reddit
Have backup power, water, etc. Have food available that is ready to eat. Keep cash and spare gasoline.
Virtual-Feature-9747@reddit
This is the difference between Tuesday and Doomsday: prepping for specific or isolated narrow scope events vs a general widespread or broad scope event.
China is likely going to make a move against Taiwan in the next few years (50% chance) and the US may go for an active defense (75% chance under current management, maybe 25% under incoming management). In that scenario, China is going to shut *everything* down: power, water, sewer, gas, airports, trains, banks, Internet, phone... it's gonna be a fire sale. In a recent interview, the head of the FBI confirmed that China has a foothold in all of our systems and that they are the primary threat the US faces. China has a larger cyber force than everyone else on the planet combined.
Another thing to think about is if the next spy balloon is carrying a few EMP nukes. Heck of a stealth delivery system, mmm?
Since I started prepping the goal was always to be able to survive a one year grid down event. It's not going to be fun, but we can do it... assuming we can quietly shelter in place. The thing is, the problem is never the problem... its people. There is no serious disaster that the panicked masses can not make worse. (And when I say 'serious' I don't mean anything a living American has seen.) In a full grid down event the odds of anyone being able to keep and low profile and ride out the emergency are near zero.
OnTheEdgeOfFreedom@reddit
The balloon thing is an overstated risk. The US was tracking that balloon very early on, they just didn't talk about it. They didn't bother to take it down right off because they were interested in finding out what the Chinese were after, and they knew it didn't have a nuke payload. In different circumstances, the balloon would never have made it over US soil. And it's not how you launch a nuclear strike - it would give the US way too much time to counterattack. If you're going to nuke someone you need to do it fast and hard, which is why they use missiles.
The rest though - the last US estimate of a year of grid down was a 65-90% US population loss. And that estimate was a few years ago now, and I could make a case for either a higher or lower death toll. We've made more fixes to the grid, ad more people have solar - but more people have guns, which will become the primary pop killer when the food runs low. It certainly doesn't go well for cities, and that's 80% of the population right there.
Virtual-Feature-9747@reddit
Oh, they knew about it but not right away. And yes, they were tracking it but they didn't know what it was carrying. My point here is that balloon was right over the middle of the US and then the East Coast for several days. If it had had a nuclear device it could have been detonated with zero warning. The thing was the size of a school bus and could have carried a half a dozen warheads. Add a basic launch system and you could deploy them in radius at a much higher altitude in less than a minute. How's that for fast? BTW, my napkin math shows this would cover almost all of the US with many overlapping areas of effect. (My point is that if we ever see anything like this again, it needs to be shot down immediately despite the risk of falling on someone's house.)
Going back to a simple one nuke device, the main downside is the small area of affect from such a low altitude. But devices like this could always be used in conjunction with more traditional delivery methods like missiles. Not to mention 30,000 undocumented Chinese military aged males in the US that can strike at anything they want... possibly with U-Haul tracks loaded with nuclear weapons. Add in massive cyber attacks and the war is over before anyone even knows it starts.
Do you think the Chinese don't know how to play to win? That they don't know how to play dirty when it counts? That they know how to take advantage of our every weakness? Do you think they would allow US balloons to overfly their airspace, or thousands of undocumented Americans in their country?
A war with China is not going to be fought in and around Taiwan. It's going to be fought everywhere: space, cyberspace, economic markets, terrorist attacks, biological warfare, infrastructure, supply chains, and maybe even nuclear. The modern battlefield exists in multiple realms, many with global reach. WW3 for America is going to be nothing like WW1 or 2 with only soldiers facing danger on some distant battlefield.
OnTheEdgeOfFreedom@reddit
Um... no. If there had been nukes on board, there would have been a radioactive signature. Add enough shielding to hide that and the thing could not fly. If there had even been a question of it being a weapon, it would have been brought down immediately.
The US military has its shortcomings but I promise you this is the sort of thing they evaluate.
I agree that China could do damage. But talk of thousands of Chinese with u-hauls and nukes is absurd. Do you think US highways aren't routinely checked for radioactive signatures?
China is extremely good at defense and they've built a good offensive game. They also know that if they cause a hint of trouble, the world cuts them off and their economy crashes into ruins, and their massive population will revolt. Like every other nation-state, they have to evaluate what risk and what reward they are willing to play for, and if they thought they could even take Taiwan it would have happened by now. They keep eyeing it, they keep prepping for it, but the answer has always been No. And a direct assault on the US puts all of NATO on their ass - and they can't defend against all that.
Of course, things could change if the next administration pulls out of NATO and gives China a wink on Taiwan. And seriously, who the hell even knows at this point, that could legitimately happen. But until it does, chill. China is not suicidal.
Spare_Town6161@reddit
I'd need to understand the Chinese's logic in gaining tiawn but loosing the US as a market? How would that not be a net loss for them? If there is an economic argument there, then I could see this as possible. If not, then I don't see them shooting themselves in booth feet to gain taiwan.
PrisonerV@reddit
China is suffering from a lot of the corruption that Russia has. Their military leaders have taken the money and spent it on something else. There were some recent very embarrassing headlines and some 15 high-ranking military officials and defense industry execs were removed from their posts.
Some estimate they are really 10-15 years or more behind where we thought they were just a few months ago.
Kind of reminds me of the crap showing up in my MSN feed like Russia wanting to build flying aircraft carriers ala the Avengers. Meanwhile they're troops are now seen using T-10 tanks (a post WW2 tank from the 1950s) on the battlefield in Ukraine. I won't go into their "ha" aircraft carrier.
Virtual-Feature-9747@reddit
You aren't wrong but having problems like corruption at home and being behind the technology curve didn't stop Russia. And I think China is ten times more dangerous than Russia.
PrisonerV@reddit
And Russia is losing horribly to the point they're using Africian and North Korean mercenaries. If I was Taiwan, I'd load up on anti ship and anti air missiles and dare China to try attacking.
Drag an old barge out into the sea and sink it with several mobile anti ship missiles fired from a truck. I'd make that an annual event.
JoeCabron@reddit
Great points. I can see this unfolding as you call it. According to some of the tech sites, there’s a lot of probing occurring now. China and Russia. Not surprising. Survival rate, small. Logical outcome.
tempest1523@reddit
Yeah they say the aging population in China only gives them a couple years left before the decline will affect efforts. Will be interesting in the next couple years to see how it plays out. If they do want to take Taiwan they will definitely hit us first with cyber attacks to keep us distracted
chellybeanery@reddit
God, that would suck.
I could make do without utilities for a little while, but if its during the winter I may be screwed as I don't have enough fuel to be able to keep my kerosene heater going for more than a few days. I have both a creek and multiple reservoirs nearby, so I'd be good for water, and I have a fair supply of food.
I live just outside a city, so I feel like it'd end in people looting those who are prepared for what they have or banding together and trying to make do with the people around you.
If it's an EMP, then oof. I have a solar generator, but without a Faraday cage to put it in, it'd be a useless lump. At least my bike would work!
livestrong2109@reddit (OP)
Bike + Alternator from the car that won't start... personally I've got a bike trainer I'd spot weld the pully onto. Trickle charge a battery for anything that still turns on.
Popular_Try_5075@reddit
My bigger concern is losing power during a heat dome because it's easier to at least make a fire, but in a real scorching heat wave there aren't many options.
livestrong2109@reddit (OP)
Totally just hiding in the basement like I do most of the summer. Total understand that geography and the water table doesn't allow that option in many places.
silasmoeckel@reddit
Would not notice much.
Not sure how you prep without a well, water is a key resource. This is a move if you need to sort of thing in my book.
NG and Mains never rely on something getting delivered constantly. I do have propane but I have many years worth of typical usage in an outage. I can live without it as well via power rationing during bad production.
D_dUb420247@reddit
My plan is to migrate just like our elders have always done. Live off the land. Learn to love Earth again and being less dependent on capitalism to provide a life for me. I accept that life and know one day we will have no choice but to live this way again. She will take back what we took advantage of. I accept her changes for her existence.
OnTheEdgeOfFreedom@reddit
When I lived in the US, I prepped for 6 months without the grid - mostly as an experiment to see if I could do it. I lived in the northeast, so I had to account for winter. I had sufficient calories and protein and water; I was never certain I could keep the pipes from freezing, even with my stock of firewood and propane. Having solar would have helped but it wasn't feasible where I lived. And it didn't come cheap.
I cut it off at 6 months because if the supermarkets weren't open by then, I'd have been shot for my supplies, like most people. You have to sleep sometime, and there were sizable cities and towns within a few days walk. It wouldn't have been winnable. The only real hope was that a grid down attack - whether cyber or nuclear - wouldn't be 100% successful and grid repairs would be possible. (And that is the likely outcome, but there would still be a lot of death.)
The thing that infuriates me about all this... the US did it wrong. NONE of our infrastructure should be internet-accessible. All of it should be air-gapped, just like we do for classified data. The current state of affairs, trying to harden internet access to critical infrastructure, would never pass muster for classified data and should never have passed muster with life-critical resources.
A few years back, XKCD did the best analogy for this I ever saw. You go to your teen's parent/teacher conference and you raise the question of your daughter's safety in school, and the teacher reassures you: don't worry, I always wear a condom when I'm in the classroom.
And on one level it's like, ok, that's good, no STDs, and on another it's like WHAT THE FUCK? Why is the possibility of sexual contact even on the table?!
To be crude, America's throbbing member shouldn't be out where foreign adversaries can get to it, and wrapping it in a condom (here, anti-virus measures) isn't all that reassuring as a mitigation. There is no reason but money we can't create a physically isolated optic network for this stuff with NO point of contact to the internet. There is no reason other than money that we can't manufacture our own controller hardware to run this stuff - these aren't even complicated processors.
But no, we sit here with our dick hanging out while energy businesses lobby to keep things as they are because profit first. It's insane.
MadRhetorik@reddit
Having been in the military and in the Cyber job field in particular I’ve had the privilege to sit in on multiple briefs concerning things like this. To say that you should be concerned is putting it lightly. We had servers and firewalls that even on training ops were getting hammered from China lol. If any country is to not be taken lightly it’s China.
JoeCabron@reddit
Been thru a 30 day outage, then a 17, and now recently, 2 week. The twist on this one was looting. No police presence for one week. Gunfire almost every night, for a week post storm. Seems like the looting is now picking up in LA. Just deployed 8,000 national guard there. They are authorized to use deadly force. Sept 27 th I believe, DOD Also amended a directive also authorized regular military to assist police with intel and indirectly allows shoot to kill. To me the timing is unusual. Idk what to think. We’re in quite a strange situation. Strategically, if I was China, then this would be, a really good time, to start crashing critical infrastructure. This would cause quite an attrition rate. This would definately be challenging to navigate. None of us are really prepared to deal with something like that.
churchbro12@reddit
We have a generator for backup electricity, wood stove for backup to natural gas/grill for cooking/camping stove or cooking over our fire pit as a last resort. For water, we are on a well so not so dependent but if the pumps go down, for instance the generators need gas eventually...no plan b as of yet. Still working on the best way to store water. I suppose we could boil water from our creek if it got to that.
KlausVonMaunder@reddit
https://www.bisonpumps.com/
HappyAnimalCracker@reddit
This is the best solution. I know someone who did this. Said it wasn’t easy to self install but they did and their electric pump still works fine in the meantime. In other words, they didn’t have to choose one or the other. They have both systems.
Livid_Village4044@reddit
I have a 5-year supply of wood heat already cut up, a spring that runs all by itself into a 1500 gallon holding tank, and over an acre of openings in my 10 acres of forest where I'm starting to grow my food. 500 square foot manufactured house is well insulated.
No root cellar yet. Headlamp and emergency lights with batteries. Have only been on my homestead 20 months so far. It was just a big wild forest when I got here.
Have already been thru 6 days without power after Helene, which I wasn't even prepared for, with no serious problems. Always have at least a month of food on hand.
Aggravating-Plate814@reddit
I'm in coastal CA so "winter" is not really something we need to.prep for. Water is though, I have (10) 5 gallon water jugs sitting in my garage, freeze dried food/fruit, and lots of fishing gear. I think the best plan is to be tight with your neighbors and make sure that if there is an attack on utilities that we can all band together and share resources. My neighbors would mostly be a drain on resources but they're all good people and would be assets for other reasons.
tempest1523@reddit
As long as cars work and stores stay open and truckers keep shipping we could deal with many simultaneous outages whether power, gas, communications etc. It would be hectic, there would be empty shelves at times but things could be restocked.
Only concern to me is an EMP. This would cause the mayhem and death not from the EMP but civilian on civilian violence.
Big-Preference-2331@reddit
Im in Arizona and it would be devastating if it were hit in the summer. I would use all of my local governments supplies at first. We have a casino with a huge back up water supply and a diesel generator. Once all the governments resources are used up i would tap into my own resources. I also have an uncle with a well that lives by me. I don't have natural gas or propane
Luckygecko1@reddit
There are 5 ponds and two streams within a mile of my house. I have various filters for at least 40,000 gallons. Electricity I can cut back and just use enough solar to have lights and a few things. As for gas, the winters here are not totally bad. It may snow once a year if that often. I have enough cast iron to cook over coals and fire.
It might suck, but we could get by for a while.
If it happened in the next four years, I'd worry about recovery not going smooth and there being an extended outage.
mountainsformiles@reddit
If water and electric were to go out at the same time, I would be OK for about a month or 6 weeks. If natural gas were to go out at the same time as the other 2, I'd only be good for maybe 2 weeks. Heat would be a big issue. I only have enough propane for a couple weeks if I had to use it for my buddy heater and stove. I have a little bit of wood for my fireplace but it would only last about 3 days. That's definitely my most limited prep.
I hope that all 3 going out together is about as good odds as me winning the lottery!
newarkdanny@reddit
All at once with my current setup, winter = 2 weeks. Electricity specifically would hold me back. Warmer times a month.