What is the European Union's future of the Balkans?

Posted by Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit | AskBalkans | View on Reddit | 45 comments

What is the future of the European Union in the Balkans?

And especially in the countries which are not part of it. What do you think of future possible enlargement?

The fact that countries like Croatia, Bulgaria and Romania which became part of EU profited alot and made massive transformation.

I want to point out the Balkan disputes which are holding back the countries but also the fact that there is no transformation happening in the way no reform agenda has been pursued.

So far, Montenegro has managed to stay on course to enter the Union, while Albania has made significant progress. In North Macedonia, ethno national party won the elections and seems that they completely stalled the progress. Bosnia has been struggling even more with it's complex integrity but it's scheduled to start the accessions this year. As for Serbia and Kosovo this has been put as the most difficult agreement that needs to open the doors. Considering the recent situation in Serbia seems that the stalemate will progress even more.

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Proof_Television8685@reddit

without eu reforms at msot norway like situation. have all eu benefits but no vetos ,or members of parlament . but visa free working and open market would be there

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LibertyChecked28@reddit

Stagnation and decay for us are granted in the span of the next 40 years at least, can't talk about the rest.

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Infinite_Procedure98@reddit

Less pessimist Bulgarian.

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No-Evidence8931@reddit

This is unfortunately the truth off our situation

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Fickle-Message-6143@reddit

Pretty sure that EU needs to reform etself before accepting new members.

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AndreiTatescu@reddit

Yes, it needs to become a loose union based on economic cooperation. Not a centralized federation. We need to fire the bureaucrats in Brussels.

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Vesko85@reddit

Exactly the opposite. In order to preserve the union, it must become a federation. Economically and considering the global situation, this is the only way for it to survive. The countries individually are too small and weak to be a factor against countries like the USA, Russia, India, China, and African nations.

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kerelberel@reddit

And until that point they will only do the bare minimum (or let the US do it) to keep the countries just out of reach of too much Russian or Chinese influence.

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vllaznia35@reddit

Albania and Montenegro will join in around 2030. We will be rushed in, probably cut some corners in the criteria like Greece. If the EU can't deal with a combined population of 3M, well what is the point of even joining then?

About Kosovo, well it all depends on "negociations". With Trump in power and the spineless technocrats in Brussels, that might not go too far. NMK's future looks quite complicated too tbh. And Bosnia is well, Bosnia.

It's a bit more complicated for Serbia. It sits in a strategic location (Morava-Vardar valley corridor) but still has an eye turned to Russia. It looks like the EU is starting to treat Serbia as a sort of dumping ground (lithium mines, old fossil-fuel powered cars) for the EU's polluting activities, which still benefits Serbia economically. They understood that forcing Russian sanctions on Serbia might be counter-productive. They are too Russophile to be let in but too Europhile to be completely ignored.

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Hyperion_000@reddit

Greece is from the older members of EU in Europe and the 1st Balkan member and when they cut some corners in the criteria so Greece become member???

Greece make lots of thinks and many sacrifices in mid 70's so become member of EEC in 1981.

You dont know much about EU,politics and geopolitics as i see on your post....yeah pitty!

North part of Cyprus isnt a country....is Turkish occupied territory......has nothing common with Moldova which is a normal average country like Albania....lmao

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South-Host8293@reddit

The Albania/Montenegro timeline seems too optimistic, especially as the EU is becoming more and more far-right and anti-immigrant. No politician would like to vote Yes to them joining when it could cost them their job in the next election.

Even if Trump somehow pressures the EU, they will not like to listen to a hostile US about how to handle theur own enlargement.

It doesn't seem there is any hope for the EU accepting new members as long as progressive parties are losing everywhere.

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Affectionate_Cut_835@reddit

We should accept them all except for Serbia and Kosovo

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Hyperion_000@reddit

lol Serbia is more normal country and has best criteria from Albania a narco state and N.M a failed nationalist state who trying to steal history and land from Greece the oldest and 1st EU member in Balkans.

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Hyperion_000@reddit

Pro for Mondenegro and Bosnia.....but lets hope Albania and North of Macedonia stay out for the good of the Union.

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facyber@reddit

The only benefit here is for the EU as they need more low-level job workers. There are no benefits for the new countries. If you are looking at the demographic of Bulgaria, Slovenia, and Croatia, for example, you will see a massive migration since joining the EU as it was easier for them to leave the country for a better job.

Everybody talks about how Serbia is Russia/China oriented, they deserve to not be in EU, their politicans are corruptive, forgets that EU is the one that praises publicly, a Serbian government for its behaviour. Serbia will join the EU probably when new work forces are needed, although it's already done with the Indians and other countries from the same region.

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MisterViic@reddit

The most important piece is Serbia. Orban does what he does because it has the eastern part of the EU (Romania and Bulgaria) in a chokehold. Everything passes through Hungary. This is a big problem for the EU.

So it must open up another route between central europe and eastern europe. Enter Serbia. This is problematic, though. It can happen only if Russia loses badly in Ukraine conflict. And it will not happen if Russia gets a stalemate or a positive outcome in Ukraine.

Basically everything dependents on the Ukrainian war. It either gets some peace (Russia being in turmoil) and the EU can expand in the Balkans and maybe flourish. Or it will disintegrate, sparking other political and military problems in the Balkans.

The rest of the countries are not that important, because they do not represent an attractive market (low population), not do they have important ressources.

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adrenaline@reddit

What about accepting Serbia into Schengen but not the EU? Like Switzerland or Norway. Personally I would like that way more tbh

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Lusselaf@reddit

i agree 100% !!!

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Archaeopteryx11@reddit

I agree with the high level details, but I’m not sure I buy all of this. If Hungary closes its doors to Romanian/Bulgarian truckers, they lose a lot of money and their economy goes even more in the shitter.

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dragsy@reddit

I think the EEA should be expanded to the Western Balkans immediately until the EU can reform to accept more members.

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Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit (OP)

How will you settle that in Kosovo or in Serbia which have no common border? Or even I Bosnia? That region is such a mess that it's hopeless if we look how EU functions.

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dragsy@reddit

Bosnia is a single country, yes it has two administrative regions but most of it is just politics for the lowest common denominator.

Kosovo can be treated like Northern Cyprus.

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Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit (OP)

The best thing is to isolate Serbia and force it to have status like eea what you said while for others to be EU

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dragsy@reddit

I don’t think the answer is to isolate Serbia. However yes they will need to chose between EEA and free the PRC and Russia free trade agreement. Seeing that 70% of Serbias trade is with the EU, I think the choice will be fairly straight forward for them.

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oskif809@reddit

heh, that might be considered "taking the easy way out" ;)

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Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit (OP)

It's a mess in Balkans. I do hope one day all will be like Bulgaria and Romania which transformed and started to really open and develop. I am however not optimist for Bosnia or North Macedonia, Kosovo and others.

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Infinite_Procedure98@reddit

But you see, even like this you can have bad surprises. A pro-russian soveraignist who might win the presidential elections in Romania, I didn't see it coming. I thought everyone in Romania is pro-European and deeply anti-russian. I was so ignorant. European integration produces winners and losers (even if globally is very beneficial), and the losers accumulate frustrations hard to understand and that can one day flush the cards in a dramatic way.

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dragsy@reddit

Most politicians are entrenched in the Balkans and prefer the status quo to protect their corrupt / financial / monopoly / nepotism interests. Remove corruption and most of the problems you bring up are easily resolvable. Joining the EEA as a first step will help with all of this, and integrate these countries into the common market.

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Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit (OP)

There is no such proposal. But a growth plan and a staged entry into the common market for businesses only. However only Montenegro has been greenlighted as the next country to join probably by 2030. This in turn might comet others to speed up, however as I said I am not optimist knowing the hostilities and animosities in the Balkans there are huge issues that need transformation in each country and the biggest problem is Serbia.

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dragsy@reddit

The main challenge will be to address corruption in these countries and bring it to a level that is acceptable level, as all EU countries have corruption.

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Warlord10@reddit

You should have just asked 'What is the EU's future. Period'.

The way Trump is behaving, he is going to conquer half of it. Lol.

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Infinite_Procedure98@reddit

Trump's policy can have unexpected results. If sovereignists win in various countries (and Germany is pivotal for this) then Trump will disembody the EU by voiding it of its substance. It will also mean a staggering victory of Russia. If the establishment (center-right, center-left) resists, then they might decide to (finally) build a European security policy and a European army and to distant itself from the US. But let's see what is Trump's solution for Ukraine (I can't see how it can be something else but a complete surrender of Ukraine in Russia's terms).

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AndreiTatescu@reddit

We are a bit fatter but we are not free.

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Infinite_Procedure98@reddit

Then who's free?

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Aggressive_Limit2448@reddit (OP)

How do you mean not free?

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Infinite_Procedure98@reddit

This is hard to say since EU has huge problems: immigration, the war in Ukraine, lose of economic competitivity and the raise of sovereignists pretty much everywhere. All those might vote against any further enlargement and freeze the integration. On the other side, Montenegro and Albania are good pupils and I think nobody has something against them. The rest is infinitely more complicated. If I were Serbian, I wouldn't want to join the EU either (juggling with the interests of EU, Russia and China might pay off but I agree this can be controversial).

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faramaobscena@reddit

The EU has lots of other problems right now so I don't see them focusing on expansion.

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AndreiTatescu@reddit

Hard not to be Eurosceptic when the EU has no problem with dictatorship and government abuse in countries that follow their order but then conducts regime change operations in countries that say no. And which countries are unruly? Do you mean countries that bully and rob other member states of natural resources?

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