How to Avoid a Nuclear War With China | "While strikes on mainland China could trigger escalation, some risk is inevitable if the U.S. is serious about defending Taiwan"
Posted by Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 88 comments
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Painkiller2302@reddit
Just give Taiwan something in between 20 to 50 nukes and fucking China will never date to touch it. Just look at what happened to Ukraine for giving up nukes.
QINTG@reddit
Americans would be surprised to learn that in just one year many Middle Eastern and South American countries have nuclear weapons and intermediate-range missiles.
HoloIsLife@reddit
Bro Taiwan is a part of China, this "hard" distinction is an invention of the US. Most countries on Earth do not recognize Taiwan as a sovereign entity, and the only reason there's any controversy is because Japan took Taiwan in WW2 from China, and the Chinese right-wing government retreated to it during the Revolution after Japan was defeated.
Painkiller2302@reddit
It's part of China, not part of the CCP.
HoloIsLife@reddit
Now that is actually a fair thing to say, I would prefer they work out their own politics over there. I don't think the US or NATO or whoever has any business worrying about what goes on with China's domestic politics.
betterbundleup@reddit
Look at what happened to Iraq and Libya when they agreed to end their nuclear programs.
Painkiller2302@reddit
Then we gotta figure out how to evacuate the 23M people living in Taiwan in some way or another because we can't let more people living under brutal inhumane dictatorships.
Own_Conclusion7255@reddit
LMAO
Painkiller2302@reddit
They've been a democracy for many years.
Own_Conclusion7255@reddit
Oh, well that's totally fine, then. They literally murdered all their political opposition. Calling what exists now a democracy is an affront to democracy.
betterbundleup@reddit
Zero historical knowledge. Tell me who convinced Iraq and Libya to give up their nuclear programs and then mercilessly bombed them? Was it China?
Painkiller2302@reddit
This is not about nuking China, but more of preventing an invasion.
deepdivisions@reddit
But why would Taiwan be invaded by the USA?
Painkiller2302@reddit
From China I mean.
Frog_and_Toad@reddit
Not possible. China would find those nuclear sites and destroy them, in the interest of national security.
And they would be forced to, regardless of their intentions on Taiwan. No nation can afford to have nukes on their borders.
Painkiller2302@reddit
Then why Taiwan should afford it? And destroying them will implicate direct war.
Far-Potential3634@reddit
If a state starts a nuke fight it's over.
There was that movie where the guy stole the backpack nuke, hiked over mountains, and George Clooney caught him. If a rogue terrorist blows a nuke there's a chance it won't cause massive nuke retaliation I suppose.
CrystalInTheforest@reddit
I think it depends. If a nuclear state uses nukes against a fellow nuclear state then yes. However if, say, Russia launches a limited nuclear strike against Ukraine (as an example) then I doubt the USA or France/UK would risk taking hit for the sake a random 3rd party state.
The only ex eption I think would be Taiwan, if thebChinese used nuclear qeapons at the strategic level, as there are explicit alliances at play, and Taiwan is critical to America's attempt to contain Chinese naval power (hence why China cares so much about it, same reason). But if China took Taiwan with conventional weapons (and possibly with limited battlefield nuclear munitions in the low tens of kilotons range) I think the IS would likely accept the hit, though I think the both sides would be willing to throw almost unlimited bodies at it, up to and including shipping raw draftees in to do suicidal Beach storming
ThrowRA-4545@reddit
Cue the obesity statistics of over 40% of Americans adults are obese. Good luck with the draft.
CrystalInTheforest@reddit
Push comes to shove, it won't matter. The Liberty Ships of WW2 were obsolete, slow, had pretty much no ability to either defend themselves or run, were so poorly built and heavily overloaded that they sometimes spontaneously broke apart. They were sunk in their thousands, often taking their crews with them. But the American kept churning them out faster than the Germans could sink them, and put more crew on to them faster than the Germans could kill them. In the Eastern front, the Soviet IL-2 aircraft were slower, had shorter range and far less agility than their German counterparts. But while the Germans experimented with ever more advanced designs, the Soviets churned out the IL-2 faster than the Germans could shoot them down, and trained new crews faster than the Germans could kill them.
If Taiwan does escalate, it won't be the high techn flash and bang of the future. It'll be a grinding, static slaughterfest, like Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen are now - and like Iraq and Afghanistan were before. It's the nature of war in the era we live in.
Nadie_AZ@reddit
All China needs to do is blockade Taiwan and wait. And that wouldn't be hard as it is RIGHT THERE. Much easier than killing your own people in an invasion. But that invasion is what the US wants so badly, so desperately. It yearns for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
China knows this. China plans for the long term. China can afford to wait.
watermizu6576@reddit
A blockade of China will kill off 2/3 of China's population.
QINTG@reddit
1: China's primary sector has 5 times the GDP of the US
2: India's total food production is half that of China's, have you seen mass starvation in India? On the contrary, India's population continues to grow
Look at the data from the International FAO
https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QCL/visualize
watermizu6576@reddit
Whatever you say mate
Frog_and_Toad@reddit
Agreed. MAD is a nice pablum to feed the masses. In reality there are many ways to fire nukes without triggering MAD. Nuclear testing is one, and it has already happened many times, Tactical strikes are another. There is no magical line between killing troops with explosives, poison gas, or nukes. US is concerned about their own interests; they will not come to the rescue of third-parties if it is too expensive.
Yamama77@reddit
But the other nato powers would move their fingers closer to their red button.
And Russia and other nuclear armed bullies would then try to use the threat against other nations.
It's been done, the gloves are off. We know that now nukes are a valid part in war again.
So it might also lead to counter attacks by other other nations. And since the nuclear question has been answered. I predict the 2100 population predictions would fall short by a rather big margin.
jahmoke@reddit
remember trump calling in and watching, with japan's minister, i think, on an unsecured phone, at a maralago restaurant, a bunker buster bomb detonating on foreign soil as a consolation for not getting to use a nuke instead? pepperidge farms remembers
UpsideMeh@reddit
I don’t know if Russia would Nuke Ukraine since it wants its natural resources, not saying they won’t use them elsewhere.
deepdivisions@reddit
Why would Russia use nuclear weapons in Ukraine when they are already set to win a conventional war? Anyone who claims that Russia wants to take over all of Ukraine and not just some territories in the Donesk region is smoking something.
Nadie_AZ@reddit
And considering that 40+% of Ukrainians are ethnic Russians. Which is a huge reason why the conflict broke out in 2014 after the US backed coup.
BubbaKushFFXIV@reddit
Any nuke used by a state would immediately result in conventional war at a minimum. No state is going to accept nuclear fallout raining down in their territory.
Far-Potential3634@reddit
ugh... very ugly. you might be right though. Only an insane politician would launch a nuke. Insane politicians in nuclear powers may be a thing going forward.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
It's been a thing for a very long time. JFK was almost completely blotto on barbies during the Cuban missile crisis. Reagan was starting to decline mentally by 1983, per his son. Brezhnev was having strokes constantly throughout the 70's up until he died. Nothing under the sun is new.
The pathocracy do be like it is.
brbgonnabrnit@reddit
Guess we'll see what happens in 6 months after trumps trade war with China is in full swing.
Suitable-Elephant-76@reddit
Please offer me some reassuring information.
brbgonnabrnit@reddit
Well trumps old and definitely not healthy. So at least there's that. The maga cult might die with the bastard.
Suitable-Elephant-76@reddit
Anything else??
brbgonnabrnit@reddit
Nope
anarchthropist@reddit
When talking about the effects on climate and ecology, not to mention complex systems like modern society, there is absolutely *NO* way to win a nuclear war, even a "limited" one.
Period. Dot. End of story.
This trumps the wishful thinking of american imperialists, neoliberals/neocons believing Ukraine is 1930s Czechoslovakia (barf), and nationalists clinging to the nostalgia of a past that no longer exists.
Suspicious-Bad4703@reddit
So the US is going to fight a multi-front global war with 120%+ debt to GDP? Iran backed proxies all over the Middle East, Russia, Yemen, and now China?
This country is actually detached from reality. Our position in the world is shrinking, we just elected the WWE McPresident.
Taking America seriously at this point is a mistake.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
I want all the Democrats that refuse to vote for Kamala to watch what happens with the whole Palestine thing. And I want you guys to burn this into your brain for all time. It's like you have sawed your own arm off in protest. You'll see.
duelpoke10@reddit
Bro shit the fuck up gaza is already deatroyed under the oh so good democrats. Its alreadys as so many people like to say a parking lot. The zio mfs have already started prep for settling in norther gaza all under the pios saints democrats. The fucker biden said nothing when Israel broke his terms of a ceasefire. Just shut the fuck up. Democrats are war criminals. And so is trump for the outside world both are a joke lol. Atleast one of them plays the jokes on his own people while the other fucks up other countries and laugh about it. Atleast trump doesnt start wars and rains drones strikes on other countries all he does is fuck his own people up.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Name me one is president, Democrat or Republican, that wouldn't unconditionally support Israel. It's permanently attached to the US. Might as well be fucking Texas. That ain't right but that's how it is. And all these Democrats voted to commit domestic policy suicide over something unchangeable because purity. Welp when they're all being burned at the fucking stake by an orange they can stand on their purity. Proof: the Carter Doctrine. Yes, Democrats are war criminals. Absolutely. Orange boy is going to make them look like fucking amateurs.
duelpoke10@reddit
Rn the biggest shithead is biden. He purposely chose to escalate the Ukraine russian war. Instead of tryna get them to the table. Before getting scared of trump and allowing them to use long range weapons Ukraine was winning the war and russia is threathening Europe as a whole with thier new shiny toy.
Pretty sure atleast by his previous track record orange man isnt good at starting wars and just pulls out.
FYATWB@reddit
The US is sending weapons (a lot of them old or surplus that would otherwise go to waste), but they aren't doing any "fighting" themselves, at least not right now unless you count contractors.
As they should be, hopefully the war criminals see some justice
Every country is going to have to go the same route, less global trade and more self reliance. Climate change is going to make growing food harder, there will be less food exports, which is part of the reason for Russia invading Ukraine.
It's not just people in the US realizing there is no future, young people everywhere are "laying flat", as they say in CN.
The "relative" peace of no world wars will likely end, as every country will have to fight for dwindling resorces on a world becoming increasingly uninhabitable due to climate change.
Unless you own a nuclear powered bunker already, don't have kids.
furor__poeticus@reddit
Germany was viewed as a failure on the world stage after WWI ended, and Nazi Germany still rose from those ashes to commit mass murder and attempt an annexation of most of Europe...
No one should underestimate what lengths embarrassed and impoverished countries would be willing to go to in order to nurse their bruised egos and obtain more power and influence (or at least the illusion of it in order to satiate their supporters). Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, and Jinping are more dangerous because of these "joke-worthy" qualities - not in spite of them.
watermizu6576@reddit
Netanyahu not so much. The other 3 yes.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Hopefully the war criminals see some justice?? That shit's hilarious.
duelpoke10@reddit
Sadly us still holds influence, as it vetos decisions it doesn't like lol
-_katahdan_-@reddit
Capitalists are really itching to kill off labor, aren’t they?
matt2001@reddit
I've been translating the works of the Argentine Nostradamus, Benjamin Solari Parravicini. I came across these relevant quotes:
Here is a PDF of some of his translated apocolyptic drawings/predictions:
These are a list of most of his quotes without drawings:
This is a list of his translated material on the Internet Archive.
PaPerm24@reddit
China gaining control over taiwan isnt the end kf the world. Usa is freaking out over nothing.
And yes i know about their microchip manufacturing
RoyalZeal@reddit
Not to mention the US agreed that Taiwan is a part of China back in the 1970s.
Own_Conclusion7255@reddit
Watch out! China might become slightly more China again1
me-need-more-brain@reddit
"defending Taiwan" ? They adhere to the "One china" policy and officially acknowledge it as a Chinese island, like, 99% of the world. Shouldn't they change their position on this first?
Taqueria_Style@reddit
What the hell are we talking about this for? Let's play out a scenario where we even "win". A bunch of our coastal cities are gone making team red I'm sure extremely happy. So that part's a double win for them. But we get thrown back in time about 150 years generously speaking regarding supply chain and product availability and technology. Taiwan will be a crater just if China loses because denial of resources man fundamentally. What are we talking about here? Like just basically turning ourselves Amish in a best case scenario? There's too many people for that.
TuneGlum7903@reddit
For understanding this moment in time I find two books to be helpful to the discussion.
Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy (1988)
*Personally I find this to be the “best” book on this topic.*
Kennedy states his theory in the second paragraph of the introduction as follows:
The “military conflict” referred to in the book’s subtitle is therefore always examined in the context of “economic change”.
The triumph of any one Great Power in this period, or the collapse of another, has usually been the consequence of lengthy fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been the consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of the state’s productive economic resources in wartime, and, further in the background, of the way in which that state’s economy had been rising or falling, relative to the other leading nations, in the decades preceding the actual conflict.
For that reason, how a Great Power’s position steadily alters in peacetime, is as important to this study as how it fights in wartime.
The relative strengths of the leading nations in world affairs never remain constant, principally because of the uneven rate of growth among different societies and of the technological and organizational breakthroughs which bring a greater advantage to one society than to another.
A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War
by Victor Davis Hanson (2005)
Trumpublicans are obsessed with the Peloponnesian War. When it comes to ancient Greece and the U.S.-China relationship, the most prominent comparison is the “Thucydides Trap,” made famous by the political scientist Graham Allison, which uses the relationship between Athens and Sparta to draw an analogy between a rising China and the threat felt by the United States today.
TuneGlum7903@reddit
The Trumpublicans appeal to a certain type of US military officer. One's like Mike Flynn, or Oliver North, or the ones who staged the Gulf of Tonkin incident. The type who see themselves as "true patriots" who are willing to make the hard decisions and act for the "higher good" of the country.
Those guys have been talking up a war with China for years.
US Generals are saying things like this.
U.S. General’s Prediction of War With China
US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions
Leaked memo forecasting Taiwan strait conflict in 2025 triggers debate about ‘undisciplined’ comments.
We're scared because China, unlike Russia, has built a REAL navy.
China’s navy is now bigger than the US Navy.
The military labels China as a “pacing threat,” meaning its military is making strategic strides against the US. In fact, China’s navy has surpassed the US Navy in fleet size, and some experts have warned that an American technological advantage may not be enough to maintain superiority, particularly when the US is committing many of its munitions to Ukraine.
235711@reddit
A defeat for the US would be the best thing for humanity as a whole since the US is responsible for destroying the environment and interfering with international cooperation. The US political system is basically worthless when it comes to solving global issues like climate change. They should peacefully step aside, they bring no value to humanity.
AgencyAccomplished84@reddit
Pray tell, what boons would China bring in its stead? Or Russia?
betterbundleup@reddit
I mean besides the fact that your argument is literally lacking any substance, you seem to be ignorning the violence that the us visits on most of the global south. An anti-imperial analysis is very important as it can let one believe that somehow the world will the "worse".
All real data shows Chinese people are far more satisfied with their govt than the us pop has been since at least the last 20 years. In addition, China is clearly far more advanced a country at this point, they have real production capacity and seem to care about the well being of their citizens as well as those living in the global south in general.
IsItAnyWander@reddit
I'm no imperialism apologist, but my god thinking that China "cares" about the well being of their citizens and those of the global South is bonkers.
betterbundleup@reddit
Evidence please. I see China interacting with countries of the global south (of which they are one, in a sense) with far more respect than western countries have. Show me how imf programs have been more effective than the belt and road initiative. Show me where the leaders of African nations plead for us help and reject that of China.
China lifted the most people out of poverty in recent history. In fact they are literally the driving factor in global poverty reduction.
I beg people to stop just repeating imperialist talking points with literally no facts.
IsItAnyWander@reddit
Evidence that they "care", first. They're exploitative. And no one compared them to the imf before you did.
AgencyAccomplished84@reddit
China has "real production capacity" in that their arms industry is (at best) no better than the American one, but that they have taken up all the low-level manufacturing because the West specialized. Lower labor costs and economies of scale meant civil production has been let slip to China, and America was trying to reverse that change even before Sunny D won the election.
Your case on the chinese people feeling "satisfied" with their government looks nice, but you're also discussing a country where disagreement with the government leads to civil and criminal punishment. Americans are allowed to express their dissatisfaction at will, for better or worse. I don't think any statement on "far more satisfied" can be held as trustworthy
I would also make the case that China clearly is doing fine without Taiwan, and their demands to retake the island as well as exerting control over the South China Sea are imperialist in their own right. Their investments into Africa are built towards getting resource rights, both for their own benefit and to cut off the west. There's imperialism here, but if you want to push a narrative against the West, I can see how you're willing to ignore theirs.
Don't apply "enlightened despotism" to the Chinese government.
betterbundleup@reddit
When a great number of Americans expressed their political views on campuses this year the police unleashed a surprising level of violence.
Also out of hand dismissing data from China while accepting that from Western nations does in fact constitute a level of xenophobia since the Chinese govt is no more or less secretive than the United States for example.
Sure china is imperialist by reading with nations with natural resources. How many military bases do they have on the African continent for example? Now what about the us?
I'm not sure the comprehension of what imperialism is is really demonstrated here.
Nadie_AZ@reddit
No empire will replace that of the US. What we will see, instead, are regional powers. The US will be one, China, India, Russia. Maybe Brazil. I don't know about major powers in Africa, so I cannot comment. Maybe France or Germany steps up as the EU crumbles.
If that frightens anyone, then welcome to Collapse! And welcome to having to relearn what diplomacy means as the US Empire has long forgotten it.
ClawoftheConcili8tor@reddit
A few points.
1.) The US surface fleet is for projecting power against rogue satrapies and upstart nations. In a conflict against a peer nation, it'll play a secondary role. China's missiles would annihilate the surface fleet if it was stupid enough to drift anywhere close to the mainland. Russia's missiles would do the same. The surface fleet can't even defeat the Houthis.
2.) The real action is beneath the waves. The submarine is the most powerful weapon on earth, king of kings, and the nuclear submarine is the king of king of kings. Very few countries are capable of manufacturing them. One expert once told me that the nuclear submarine is the most complicated manufactured good in the modern world and in human history BY FAR. Among countries expert enough to manufacture them, only two are good at manufacturing them well, maintaining and improving them, and producing them at a good clip: Russia and the United States. China's way, way, way behind in subs.
3.) One of the main things Russia has to offer China is nuclear sub technology and manufacturing knowhow. That's coming for sure, but not for a long while. In the meantime, if the US and China got into a confrontation about Taiwan, China's fleet would be severely attritted by America's massive submarine fleet. The conflict would then go nuclear OR Russia's submarines, equal to or perhaps even better than our own depending on who you believe, would enter the fray--which of course is just another route to nuclear war.
I'll stop there.
Cautious_Rope_7763@reddit
What does the U.S. owe Taiwan?
kidwithanaxe@reddit
Pretty sure it’s strategic due to their massive role in production of microchips with modern architectures. They produce something like 90% of modern semiconductors.
Nadie_AZ@reddit
When the Chinese civil war ended, the Nationalists fled to Taiwan and were immediately backed by the US (1949). The US saw Taiwan as an unsinkable aircraft carrier it could use against the evil horrible terrible utterly unchristian communists that won on the mainland. This was all pre microchip production. The Nationalists in Taiwan considered themselves Chinese (they are) and thought they were the rightful rulers of all of China.
Ruby2312@reddit
So let me check note, they want to prevent China making a war by starting a war with China? Am i even more retarded than expected or did i miss something?
FYATWB@reddit
Because there is no “transfer of power” when climate change is going to wreck most countries (US+CN included). Taiwan won’t be invaded as much as some old morons want it to happen. Putin’s invasion put both countries in a downward spiral, I doubt anyone else is planning to make the same mistake soon.
alphaxion@reddit
Using a nuclear weapon, no matter how small the yield, on an adversary would be the biggest foreign policy blunder of the century.
Even if it didn't lead to MAD, it would basically be the end of non-proliferation treaties and would mean the existing nuclear powers would lose so much leverage over the rest of the world.
I imagine generals on all sides would openly revolt against strike orders.
sambuhlamba@reddit
All of this is pointless speculation.
The United States will not defend Taiwan.
The United States can have every red line crossed by China and will instead bomb some brown folks in Africa or the Sinai.
Talk about defending Taiwan is political business as usual, it is utterly without substance.
Odd_Awareness1444@reddit
The orange turd will help China invade Taiwan.
HeadAd369@reddit
Where are we going to get all our shit from?
Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit (OP)
From... the power of friendship?
aatlanticcity@reddit
the real manufacturing was the friendships we made along the way
really though it does seem like manufacturing has been moving to other asian countries pretty quickly the last few years
DestruXion1@reddit
These articles are always so stupid. We have to defend Taiwan by *checks notes* nuking mainland China triggering MAD. China has nothing to gain by invading Taiwan, and is antithetical to it's entire geopolitical strategy the last 50 years, which has been economic soft power.
huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit
I am pretty sure China wants land and people and to “reclaim” Taiwan. Can’t claim to reclaim shit if they nuke Taiwan.
So why nuke them first? Just for nukes to go flying wildly all over in mutual retaliation? Hit another nuclear nation while we are at it? Suicide speed run as if climate devastation isn’t already fast enough? Kill all the cockroaches too so no life gets left behind?
Nastyfaction@reddit
China doesn't need to invade anytime soon. The Pro-China party in Taiwan could win the election in 2028 now that the incumbent party has bled support over the last few years. Unlike Ukraine/Russia, the KMT of Taiwan more or less reconciled with the CCP in the 2000s which paved the way for economic integration between the mainland and Taiwan.
Nastyfaction@reddit
China doesn't need to invade. All this talk of a coming invasion of Taiwan by is mainly rhetoric from the American Right-wing to justify their own policies. Xi Jinping himself told European leaders that the Americans want to bait China into war so that they can justify aggression against China before it reaches parity with the US. The Pro-China party in Taiwan may potentially win the election in 2028 and return Taiwan and China back to calmer relations as it was before Trump as the incumbent party has been losing support over the years.
Nastyfaction@reddit
It's pretty concerning that Trump is trying to purge the US Military's top command in favor of incompetent fanatics who want confrontation against China and Iran on top of domestic opposition. The rest of the world could play along the first time around against China dismissing Trump's first-term as an anomaly before business as usual returns, but this time around, they probably won't.
-Planet-@reddit
why not just ahhhh...do some traaaaaaade.
Guilty_Map_362@reddit
Might be off base, but what do you mean “long term?” I’m new to this sub, but do ideas of a long term geopolitical future that in anyway resembles our current go against what seems like the mainstream (here)view of impending climate collapse? Or are they sympatico?
How do you see it?
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Comfortable-Eye-8391:
Correction: the producer of The Godfather*
I'm firing my proof-reader
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1gw2ctf/how_to_avoid_a_nuclear_war_with_china_while/ly64kg3/
Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit (OP)
Correction: the producer of The Godfather*
I'm firing my proof-reader