How to Avoid a Nuclear War With China | "While strikes on mainland China could trigger escalation, some risk is inevitable if the U.S. is serious about defending Taiwan"
Posted by Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 29 comments
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TuneGlum7903@reddit
For understanding this moment in time I find two books to be helpful to the discussion.
Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy (1988)
*Personally I find this to be the “best” book on this topic.*
Kennedy states his theory in the second paragraph of the introduction as follows:
The “military conflict” referred to in the book’s subtitle is therefore always examined in the context of “economic change”.
The triumph of any one Great Power in this period, or the collapse of another, has usually been the consequence of lengthy fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been the consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of the state’s productive economic resources in wartime, and, further in the background, of the way in which that state’s economy had been rising or falling, relative to the other leading nations, in the decades preceding the actual conflict.
For that reason, how a Great Power’s position steadily alters in peacetime, is as important to this study as how it fights in wartime.
The relative strengths of the leading nations in world affairs never remain constant, principally because of the uneven rate of growth among different societies and of the technological and organizational breakthroughs which bring a greater advantage to one society than to another.
A War Like No Other: How the Athenians and Spartans Fought the Peloponnesian War
by Victor Davis Hanson (2005)
Trumpublicans are obsessed with the Peloponnesian War. When it comes to ancient Greece and the U.S.-China relationship, the most prominent comparison is the “Thucydides Trap,” made famous by the political scientist Graham Allison, which uses the relationship between Athens and Sparta to draw an analogy between a rising China and the threat felt by the United States today.
TuneGlum7903@reddit
The Trumpublicans appeal to a certain type of US military officer. One's like Mike Flynn, or Oliver North, or the ones who staged the Gulf of Tonkin incident. The type who see themselves as "true patriots" who are willing to make the hard decisions and act for the "higher good" of the country.
Those guys have been talking up a war with China for years.
US Generals are saying things like this.
U.S. General’s Prediction of War With China
US general’s ‘gut’ feeling of war with China sparks alarm over predictions
Leaked memo forecasting Taiwan strait conflict in 2025 triggers debate about ‘undisciplined’ comments.
We're scared because China, unlike Russia, has built a REAL navy.
China’s navy is now bigger than the US Navy.
The military labels China as a “pacing threat,” meaning its military is making strategic strides against the US. In fact, China’s navy has surpassed the US Navy in fleet size, and some experts have warned that an American technological advantage may not be enough to maintain superiority, particularly when the US is committing many of its munitions to Ukraine.
235711@reddit
A defeat for the US would be the best thing for humanity as a whole since the US is responsible for destroying the environment and interfering with international cooperation. The US political system is basically worthless when it comes to solving global issues like climate change. They should peacefully step aside, they bring no value to humanity.
AgencyAccomplished84@reddit
Pray tell, what boons would China bring in its stead? Or Russia?
Odd_Awareness1444@reddit
The orange turd will help China invade Taiwan.
Far-Potential3634@reddit
If a state starts a nuke fight it's over.
There was that movie where the guy stole the backpack nuke, hiked over mountains, and George Clooney caught him. If a rogue terrorist blows a nuke there's a chance it won't cause massive nuke retaliation I suppose.
CrystalInTheforest@reddit
I think it depends. If a nuclear state uses nukes against a fellow nuclear state then yes. However if, say, Russia launches a limited nuclear strike against Ukraine (as an example) then I doubt the USA or France/UK would risk taking hit for the sake a random 3rd party state.
The only ex eption I think would be Taiwan, if thebChinese used nuclear qeapons at the strategic level, as there are explicit alliances at play, and Taiwan is critical to America's attempt to contain Chinese naval power (hence why China cares so much about it, same reason). But if China took Taiwan with conventional weapons (and possibly with limited battlefield nuclear munitions in the low tens of kilotons range) I think the IS would likely accept the hit, though I think the both sides would be willing to throw almost unlimited bodies at it, up to and including shipping raw draftees in to do suicidal Beach storming
UpsideMeh@reddit
I don’t know if Russia would Nuke Ukraine since it wants its natural resources, not saying they won’t use them elsewhere.
ThrowRA-4545@reddit
Cue the obesity statistics of over 40% of Americans adults are obese. Good luck with the draft.
CrystalInTheforest@reddit
Push comes to shove, it won't matter. The Liberty Ships of WW2 were obsolete, slow, had pretty much no ability to either defend themselves or run, were so poorly built and heavily overloaded that they sometimes spontaneously broke apart. They were sunk in their thousands, often taking their crews with them. But the American kept churning them out faster than the Germans could sink them, and put more crew on to them faster than the Germans could kill them. In the Eastern front, the Soviet IL-2 aircraft were slower, had shorter range and far less agility than their German counterparts. But while the Germans experimented with ever more advanced designs, the Soviets churned out the IL-2 faster than the Germans could shoot them down, and trained new crews faster than the Germans could kill them.
If Taiwan does escalate, it won't be the high techn flash and bang of the future. It'll be a grinding, static slaughterfest, like Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan and Yemen are now - and like Iraq and Afghanistan were before. It's the nature of war in the era we live in.
Far-Potential3634@reddit
ugh... very ugly. you might be right though. Only an insane politician would launch a nuke. Insane politicians in nuclear powers may be a thing going forward.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
It's been a thing for a very long time. JFK was almost completely blotto on barbies during the Cuban missile crisis. Reagan was starting to decline mentally by 1983, per his son. Brezhnev was having strokes constantly throughout the 70's up until he died. Nothing under the sun is new.
The pathocracy do be like it is.
Yamama77@reddit
But the other nato powers would move their fingers closer to their red button.
And Russia and other nuclear armed bullies would then try to use the threat against other nations.
It's been done, the gloves are off. We know that now nukes are a valid part in war again.
So it might also lead to counter attacks by other other nations. And since the nuclear question has been answered. I predict the 2100 population predictions would fall short by a rather big margin.
HeadAd369@reddit
Where are we going to get all our shit from?
Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit (OP)
From... the power of friendship?
aatlanticcity@reddit
the real manufacturing was the friendships we made along the way
really though it does seem like manufacturing has been moving to other asian countries pretty quickly the last few years
PaPerm24@reddit
China gaining control over taiwan isnt the end kf the world. Usa is freaking out over nothing.
And yes i know about their microchip manufacturing
Painkiller2302@reddit
Just give Taiwan something in between 20 to 50 nukes and fucking China will never date to touch it. Just look at what happened to Ukraine for giving up nukes.
Suspicious-Bad4703@reddit
So the US is going to fight a multi-front global war with 120%+ debt to GDP? Iran backed proxies all over the Middle East, Russia, Yemen, and now China?
This country is actually detached from reality. Our position in the world is shrinking, we just elected the WWE McPresident.
Taking America seriously at this point is a mistake.
DestruXion1@reddit
These articles are always so stupid. We have to defend Taiwan by *checks notes* nuking mainland China triggering MAD. China has nothing to gain by invading Taiwan, and is antithetical to it's entire geopolitical strategy the last 50 years, which has been economic soft power.
huehuehuehuehuuuu@reddit
I am pretty sure China wants land and people and to “reclaim” Taiwan. Can’t claim to reclaim shit if they nuke Taiwan.
So why nuke them first? Just for nukes to go flying wildly all over in mutual retaliation? Hit another nuclear nation while we are at it? Suicide speed run as if climate devastation isn’t already fast enough? Kill all the cockroaches too so no life gets left behind?
Nastyfaction@reddit
China doesn't need to invade anytime soon. The Pro-China party in Taiwan could win the election in 2028 now that the incumbent party has bled support over the last few years. Unlike Ukraine/Russia, the KMT of Taiwan more or less reconciled with the CCP in the 2000s which paved the way for economic integration between the mainland and Taiwan.
Nastyfaction@reddit
China doesn't need to invade. All this talk of a coming invasion of Taiwan by is mainly rhetoric from the American Right-wing to justify their own policies. Xi Jinping himself told European leaders that the Americans want to bait China into war so that they can justify aggression against China before it reaches parity with the US. The Pro-China party in Taiwan may potentially win the election in 2028 and return Taiwan and China back to calmer relations as it was before Trump as the incumbent party has been losing support over the years.
Nastyfaction@reddit
It's pretty concerning that Trump is trying to purge the US Military's top command in favor of incompetent fanatics who want confrontation against China and Iran on top of domestic opposition. The rest of the world could play along the first time around against China dismissing Trump's first-term as an anomaly before business as usual returns, but this time around, they probably won't.
-Planet-@reddit
why not just ahhhh...do some traaaaaaade.
brbgonnabrnit@reddit
Guess we'll see what happens in 6 months after trumps trade war with China is in full swing.
Guilty_Map_362@reddit
Might be off base, but what do you mean “long term?” I’m new to this sub, but do ideas of a long term geopolitical future that in anyway resembles our current go against what seems like the mainstream (here)view of impending climate collapse? Or are they sympatico?
How do you see it?
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Comfortable-Eye-8391:
Correction: the producer of The Godfather*
I'm firing my proof-reader
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1gw2ctf/how_to_avoid_a_nuclear_war_with_china_while/ly64kg3/
Comfortable-Eye-8391@reddit (OP)
Correction: the producer of The Godfather*
I'm firing my proof-reader