Education During A Recession?

[-]

JonathanO96@reddit

People have been forecasting “the worst economic downturn ever” for the last 8 years, especially since Covid.

If you genuinely believe that it’s coming, there is ZERO reason to be investing in flight school.

If you are planning on the worst case scenario, the only correct answer is save your money and be ready for it to come.

But in reality you can’t live a life like that. If you genuinely enjoy flying, then just do it. Part of being in the aviation industry is being flexible to economic changes. Try to always have a backup plan as furloughs happen all the time, even with experienced pilots. Have a backup job in case shit hits the fan.

[-]

PullDoNotRotate@reddit

The continuous doomcasting wears one out, especially since I was a teenager during the post-9/11 years, graduated college in the immediate aftermath of the 2008 cluster and had 'just' made it to a respectable major job in 2018.

"Wait how many black swans now?"

[-]

butthole_lipliner@reddit

Class of 09 here. I’m convinced nothing is real any more. We’re all just using Monopoly money anyway

[-]

PullDoNotRotate@reddit

Everything is made up and nothing matters!

[-]

Express-Figure1369@reddit

I did the bulk of my training between 2008-2010. All part 61. I paid for it by working full time while still living with my parents so pretty much every dollar I earned went into flight training.

It worked out well. I wound up getting hired by a regional only a few months after the instructors who graduated in 2007 with aviation degrees and trained me. Of course that was before the 1500 hour rule when regionals were interviewing pilots with 500 hours. It probably would have played out a little bit different today.

[-]

ltcterry@reddit

Don't confuse flight training with education. They are not the same.

If you are risk averse, look for stability elsewhere. If you have the ability to plan, think ahead, budget your money, and are resilient in times of trouble then maybe flying is for you.

Of even the few who start training, 80% drop out before finishing private. So, instead of stressing about a job you don't have, why not see if you can finish Private.

[-]

prex10@reddit

I'd the uncertainty of the industry worried you. Find a different career path.

This whole industry is a roulette wheel.

[-]

bhalter80@reddit

You guys talk about an industry that's uncertain yet people routinely retire with top longevity in their mainline carrier. I highly recommend looking at most other industries where people will work for a dozen or more companies over the course of their career

[-]

prex10@reddit

Well, yeah, timing is everything. Some people have gone through this career or having gotten furloughed like five times. Meanwhile, others have gone 30 years without ever getting laid off whatsoever.

Some people all they had to do was fog a beer to get a job. Others, couldn't beg enough to get one.

[-]

CryOfTheWind@reddit

I drove an FBO fuel truck for 3 years and lived with my parents because of 2008. If you want to be a pilot become a pilot and figure it out when you get there, no one knows what you'll graduate into.

I knew an Afghan refugee who paid for his license from driving that same fuel truck as me. That avoided debt at the cost of a few years where employment opportunities were low anyway. A few others I knew lived in their cars. If it's your dream you gotta do whatever it takes to make it.

[-]

discgolfpilot@reddit

Flight training 06-09. Went to college after 5 years in the military (01-06)

Had to move into my parents Attic as 26yo for 1/2 a year. Got the same retail job I had in highschool for 1/2 the pay I used to make.

Hung out at some airports and did a few flight reviews. Eventually found a CFI job and worked an almost full time job to pay rent and student loans. After 2 years took an SIC position that paid 24k that had about 250 apps in 48hts from posting.

A year later I was captain at that place and a dad.

Not going to lie it was a struggle all why paying 850 a month of student loans.

Now I am in a much better place and as I moved up in my career loans just paid off this year. Could have paid them sooner but had things come up in life.

[-]

NYPuppers@reddit

Anything is possible but there is nothing to suggest the possibility of recession is higher next year than this year or the last few years. Don't try to assume you are smarter than the market consensus even if your buddy or brain suggest otherwise. Asset values are still high, unemployment is still low, and there is still a lot of pent up demand for housing that should drive things for a while in a lower-rate environment, even if there is a natural recession (so 08 is probably off the table).

There certainly was a bump in leisure/"experience" spending post-covid that has tapered off and you are seeing that reflected in the airline hiring market, mixed with the over-hiring in 2021/2022. But mandatory retirements will continue and you should see hiring stabilize in 2-3 years I suspect when you are applying for a big boy job. Nobody can predict the general market 2-3 years from now though, so don't try to plan around it to much.

What you can plan around: It may be tougher to get a stable CFI gig in the interim though because a lot of CFIs that would normally be matriculating to the airlines right now are hanging on to their bugsmasher jobs... that is probably a lot more meaningful of a consideration to you than trying to play macroeconomist, so think about that and whether you have the means and a plan to build time if CFI time is harder to get. Nobody can promise you a CFI or starter job right now.

[-]

swakid8@reddit

You buy the dip in order to profit off of the highs. Those who did their training in 08 and stuck with the suck are sitting pretty at a legacy carrier today with great seniority, QOL, in their desired seat minus WB Captain….

[-]

SEKS-Aviator@reddit

PPL during 2010. Was a good experience. Not many others flying in Northern MN. Was relatively inexpensive at the time.

[-]

bretthull@reddit

I finished my ratings in ‘08. Flying jobs were pretty much impossible to find for 2-3 years. I worked a non flying job for 3 years until things started to rebound in late 2010 when I was able to get a CFI gig. It wasn’t great timing then but put me in a position to get hired at a legacy prior to the big wave the last few years.

[-]

Guysmiley777@reddit

Nobody knows, dude. If you want a guarantee of an airline job at the end of the training tunnel then this may not be the industry for you.

[-]

rFlyingTower@reddit

This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:

Has anyone in here completed or know someone who has completed pilot school (PPL & CPL, and/or other ratings) during the recession from 2008 (or other recessions) and its fallout years? How feasible was paying for education, fuel, etc? How quickly were you able to find a job with the 2008 era economy and if you took on a loan, how difficult was it to pay off? I really want to be a pilot (more for the work than the pay) but I am also aware of their weakness to economic downturns. But if I were to start education now I may be all set to be a commercial pilot after the worst of the coming economic downturn? (I'm thinking and hearing that the downturn will happen in the next year and make 2008 look like a walk in the park. I hope I'm wrong about the downturn being that bad [or happening at all], but I like to plan based off of the worst possible scenario.)

Please downvote this comment until it collapses.

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. If you have any questions, please contact the mods of this subreddit.