It’s a mafia war, one side slaps the other and demands a surrender. But then that attacked side returns a slap even harder and makes the same demand. Wars in this region of the world are not decisive, but rather a slow burning escalation until one faction gives up. A big part of Slavic culture is to view non-Slavs as the biggest bitches ever and to disrespect and push these peoples boundaries until they fight back. Conversely Slavics will view each other as not being true Slavs or impure in some way and thus begin to shit test each other. I suspect this is what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.
When was a bullied child long ago, a person explained it to me in a way that wouldn’t be appreciated until many years later. He said “imagine a country filled with downs syndrome people. the bottom citizens will be the low functioning child like ones, the middle will have mosaic downs and are capable of holding a job and the top echelons is going to be the highest functioning mosaics around. That’s Russia” he said.
Wait...the Father of All Bombs has a yield of 44 tons, not 44 MEGAtons as you have in your infographic. And Hiroshima has a yield of 15 KILOtons. What kind of Russian propaganda source did you get that picture from?
My guy. It's 44t, not 44kt. 44kt is 44 000t. It's a magnitude of 1000 times. 1kt = 1000t. Kt stands for kiloton.
There are no conventional warhead in the kt yield range.
There is an ongoing psyops campaign right now to drive up anxiety about Russian "nuclear response" in response to the ATACMS news. It's all they have now- is manipulation of our perception . Russia knows they are out of options, thought they could ride it out until Trump took office- yet the timeline got pulled on them.
They either strike with tac nukes as a show of force and lose all their combat power in Ukraine to NATO retaliation or they go full Nuclear - and get turned into a sheet of glass as soon as they lunch. Either way they lose.
They will most likely wave their dick in the wind until Trump takes office in hopes of him undermining the Ukrainian effort and sanctions. Which gives Ukraine 2 months to reduce Russ fighting capability even further and push Russia to further destroy its economy.
My bet has been on a winter UKR offensive , use General Winter to decimate the logistically constrained Russian front line. (Russians were out of food and water in the SUMMER) All that's left after is cleanup operations and further economic isolation to starve the beast.
Or hear me out, this is crazy...Rus can withdraw their forces back into their own country, pay reparations and hand Putin and crew over to the Hauge.
Oh well. Lets fucking go . Enough of this cow tailing to Russia. They want do the funny, let them reap the consequences. They are surrounded by nuclear superpowers.
As I sit here trying to type this, two wolves are fighting inside my brain. One wolf believes this is a total nothingburger and just further saber rattling. The other wolf believes that while the odds are low that Putin has the balls, the odds are never 0...
This is foolish and shows no knowledge of nuclear politics.
Nuclear weapons come in both strategic and tactical forms, and Russia has the largest armament of tactical weapons in the world.
This is most likely the scenario, but any use means escalation potential.
Once you understand dirty bombs and tactical nuclear weapons you realize they could definitely come into use in a normal battlefield situation, and likely would if a desperate dictator thought his power was threatened.
Not to mention potentially destroying valuable infrastructure that would be vital to his take over.
Sure you can bomb the shit out of another country, but when you destroy living quarters and working areas, that's a lot of work to build back up. It doesn't make sense to me to destroy an area you want.
He's learned from his piers in North Korea that if he weakens his people enough they won't have the ability to overthrow him. I honestly think he was worried about the prosperity Russia was gaining when he decided start the war with Ukraine 10 years ago.
Our satellites will detect the launch plume and set off all kinds of alarm bells but it only takes a matter of seconds for the trajectory and target to be calculated.
Three of these at 44t each would be .122 kilotonne of explosives. Not exactly impressive when compared to a nuke but that's still a shitton of explody mass.
Nobody here has to actually believe this but it’s good to consider every other an angle it would make no sense for Russia to use a really old ICBM that they haven’t tested since 2012 it’s further development and testing has been abandoned since 2017 it just makes no practical sense since Iskander M has more practicality and is used in nearly daily on Ukraine
I'm not an expert on explosive yields. So someone else can step in on that. I just saw that it carried 3 of the FOABs and then I found an inforgraphic online for context.
You should check the sources. The FOAB is a gravity bomb that’s dropped from a plane. The RS-26 is an ICBM that has detachable reentry vehicles (usually made for nuclear payloads) to come down and hit targets individually. You can’t really drop a gravity bomb from an ICBM. Maybe the experimental payloads have a yield close to the FOAB but I don’t see anything like that
No problem. I’m seeing different information about the RS-26 warhead about yield or total weight so people get confused all the time. Either way if it’s saying it can only carry a warhead of 1.2 tons -the FOAB weighs 15,000 lbs
yes. my point is that, when a mouse bites you, you wouldnt flatten it with a steamroller. the looney toons alarmist narrative that there will be a scaled retaliation fits into the fear agenda, but not the traditional rationale of wargames. but what do i know, im nobody and my opinion means nothing.
They're russians. In your example that is exactly how russians would respond. Do not believe for a second russians, and especially it's ruling class, has a sense of humanity and fairness.
The conventional warhead of the RS-26 is only ½-⅔ the size of the FAB 3000 glide bombs Russia has already been using in Ukraine, all this does is allow the larger warhead to reach anywhere in Ukraine instead of only closer to the Frontline.
It's the usual Russian propaganda effort to make something seem much more scary than it actually is along with them obviously being low on missiles and using this out of desperation.
Rainbike80@reddit
So they want territory that they won't be able to use for 30+ years? That makes sense.
That-Coconut-8726@reddit
That’s a poor understanding of nuclear weapons.
Rainbike80@reddit
Yes because nuclear yields and fallout are common knowledge. I was sick that day in school so I guess I missed out.
Which is a long way of saying your comment did less than nothing you self-righteous twat.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Apparently, it is not nuclear. Just fucking big.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Father_of_All_Bombs#:~:text=This%20weapon%20was%20claimed%20to,evening%20of%2011%20September%202007.
KlappinMcBoodyCheeks@reddit
Is it a foab or is it a ballistic missile?
skunimatrix@reddit
Ballistic missile. FOAB would be the warhead. In our case Minuteman III is the missile W88 is the nuclear warhead.
KlappinMcBoodyCheeks@reddit
Thermobaric bombs can be deployed via ballistic missile?
WSBpeon69420@reddit
There’s a lot of wrong information on here. You caught it pretty quick!
WSBpeon69420@reddit
Thats not how these work. Do you have a source saying the ICBM can carry three gravity bombs?
GoblinVietnam@reddit
Nothing about war makes sense. It might be as simple as "if I can't have it, neither can you."
Unfair_Bunch519@reddit
It’s a mafia war, one side slaps the other and demands a surrender. But then that attacked side returns a slap even harder and makes the same demand. Wars in this region of the world are not decisive, but rather a slow burning escalation until one faction gives up. A big part of Slavic culture is to view non-Slavs as the biggest bitches ever and to disrespect and push these peoples boundaries until they fight back. Conversely Slavics will view each other as not being true Slavs or impure in some way and thus begin to shit test each other. I suspect this is what Russia is currently doing in Ukraine.
When was a bullied child long ago, a person explained it to me in a way that wouldn’t be appreciated until many years later. He said “imagine a country filled with downs syndrome people. the bottom citizens will be the low functioning child like ones, the middle will have mosaic downs and are capable of holding a job and the top echelons is going to be the highest functioning mosaics around. That’s Russia” he said.
Rainbike80@reddit
Good point. There are many examples around this.
kitkatmike@reddit
Wait...the Father of All Bombs has a yield of 44 tons, not 44 MEGAtons as you have in your infographic. And Hiroshima has a yield of 15 KILOtons. What kind of Russian propaganda source did you get that picture from?
mixy23@reddit
Yes, FOAB is a conventional 44 kt warhead, not nuclear
kitkatmike@reddit
My guy. It's 44t, not 44kt. 44kt is 44 000t. It's a magnitude of 1000 times. 1kt = 1000t. Kt stands for kiloton. There are no conventional warhead in the kt yield range.
kingofthesofas@reddit
Yeah that's the worst chart I have seen in a long time.
Girafferage@reddit
You should see the graphic they have on Putin's member.
Subject_7702@reddit
Spoiler alert: it’s a small stick
Realistic_Young9008@reddit
Talk about Tsar Bomba!
Confident-Belt4707@reddit
Think they're talking about weight of payload not explosive force of payload
IdontOpenEnvelopes@reddit
There is an ongoing psyops campaign right now to drive up anxiety about Russian "nuclear response" in response to the ATACMS news. It's all they have now- is manipulation of our perception . Russia knows they are out of options, thought they could ride it out until Trump took office- yet the timeline got pulled on them.
They either strike with tac nukes as a show of force and lose all their combat power in Ukraine to NATO retaliation or they go full Nuclear - and get turned into a sheet of glass as soon as they lunch. Either way they lose.
They will most likely wave their dick in the wind until Trump takes office in hopes of him undermining the Ukrainian effort and sanctions. Which gives Ukraine 2 months to reduce Russ fighting capability even further and push Russia to further destroy its economy.
My bet has been on a winter UKR offensive , use General Winter to decimate the logistically constrained Russian front line. (Russians were out of food and water in the SUMMER) All that's left after is cleanup operations and further economic isolation to starve the beast.
Or hear me out, this is crazy...Rus can withdraw their forces back into their own country, pay reparations and hand Putin and crew over to the Hauge.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
https://www.youtube.com/live/jVzBRNb1HI8?si=RE3sF88fpi3JLxFT
Live stream of Kiev. Missles inbound at 11:30 est.
niveklum@reddit
Where are you seeing missiles inbound?
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
therapistofcats@reddit
Now we are an hour after...no news?
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
As far as I can find, nothing happened. So I'm gonna say it's a false alarm.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Ukraine live report in world news.
damagedgoods48@reddit
I’m not seeing any mainstream news on it
thisbliss2@reddit
Are you surprised?
IdontOpenEnvelopes@reddit
Oh well. Lets fucking go . Enough of this cow tailing to Russia. They want do the funny, let them reap the consequences. They are surrounded by nuclear superpowers.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
As much as I can find, it seems to be a false alarm for now.
YodaCodar@reddit
What is rd26?
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Typo. RS-26
LemonSparkTheUnwise@reddit
As I sit here trying to type this, two wolves are fighting inside my brain. One wolf believes this is a total nothingburger and just further saber rattling. The other wolf believes that while the odds are low that Putin has the balls, the odds are never 0...
YodaCodar@reddit
The likelihood of nuclear war increases if everyone thinks it's a nothingburger and continues to escalate.
irrision@reddit
The odds are zero, Putin wants to live and starting a nuclear war runs contrary to him living.
Blarghnog@reddit
This is foolish and shows no knowledge of nuclear politics.
Nuclear weapons come in both strategic and tactical forms, and Russia has the largest armament of tactical weapons in the world.
This is most likely the scenario, but any use means escalation potential.
Once you understand dirty bombs and tactical nuclear weapons you realize they could definitely come into use in a normal battlefield situation, and likely would if a desperate dictator thought his power was threatened.
Mocavius@reddit
Not to mention potentially destroying valuable infrastructure that would be vital to his take over.
Sure you can bomb the shit out of another country, but when you destroy living quarters and working areas, that's a lot of work to build back up. It doesn't make sense to me to destroy an area you want.
Panda_tears@reddit
Unless he dips out to a bunker in the middle of nowhere Russia under a mountain 🥲
LemonSparkTheUnwise@reddit
It's comforting to think that but the chances are never 0.
skunimatrix@reddit
At that point India and China have to cut him off completely else the countries with blue water navies will enforce secondary sanctions on them.
Blarghnog@reddit
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
therapistofcats@reddit
First image says 1.2 ton war head. So it's roughly 10% of the American MOAB?
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Apparently the info graphic is useless. But someone else laid it out in the thread.
Low_Engineering_3301@reddit
Putin wouldn't risk a full scale war with NATO, nor pissing off China, it would put his life at risk which is the only life he cares about.
myhairychode@reddit
Unless of course he sees his own people closing in on him and sees that he’s fucked anyway.
Low_Engineering_3301@reddit
He's learned from his piers in North Korea that if he weakens his people enough they won't have the ability to overthrow him. I honestly think he was worried about the prosperity Russia was gaining when he decided start the war with Ukraine 10 years ago.
myhairychode@reddit
Like, who needs a world if I can’t be in it. That level of psychosis.
WerewolfOtherwise175@reddit
$20 says it blows up on launch like the last one
skunimatrix@reddit
Time to give Aegis ashore or THAAD some real world testing.
AstroSeed@reddit
Yikes. At least we might get some nice footage of an airborne TU-95. But I hate it when they bomb innocents. Why can't they bomb bankers instead?
BringbackDreamBars@reddit
If this happens, we are going to be shooting right up the escalation ladder.
Even if they do the dummy launch, that sets a very big precedent as I guarantee it triggers the same systems as a real launch warning.
consciousaiguy@reddit
Our satellites will detect the launch plume and set off all kinds of alarm bells but it only takes a matter of seconds for the trajectory and target to be calculated.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Carries 3 of the Father of All Bombs. Could get spicy today.
ex0e@reddit
FOABs weigh between 7-8000kg each, they are not being delivered by an ICBM
GoblinVietnam@reddit
Three of these at 44t each would be .122 kilotonne of explosives. Not exactly impressive when compared to a nuke but that's still a shitton of explody mass.
y___o___y___o@reddit
Is this destined for the US embassy?
BigManWAGun@reddit
Wouldn’t hitting the US embassy fall squarely under an act of war against US/NATO?
Girafferage@reddit
Hard to say. A lot of places hand wave embassy attacks since going from that to full on war is a big step, but I imagine it could be.
skunimatrix@reddit
Technically it’s a direct attack on US soil. Practically…we’ll see that time we bombed the Chinese Embassy in Serbia trying to destroy F117 parts….
BigManWAGun@reddit
Good point, surely a rules for me/thee opportunity incoming.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
US did clear the embassy. It's didn't say that it was for this, but just general air strikes.
So I guess we'll see
luciferlol_666@reddit
Fuck russia
Mojave0@reddit
GUR which is basically Ukrainian intelligence saying this is a giant Russian psychological operation
Nobody here has to actually believe this but it’s good to consider every other an angle it would make no sense for Russia to use a really old ICBM that they haven’t tested since 2012 it’s further development and testing has been abandoned since 2017 it just makes no practical sense since Iskander M has more practicality and is used in nearly daily on Ukraine
luciferlol_666@reddit
Fuck russia
Impossible_Range6953@reddit
And? People are already living in death, misery and fear. Might finally be the trigger to give US and Europe the balls to do something.
WSBpeon69420@reddit
I think this is a little misleading between weights and explosive yields.
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
I'm not an expert on explosive yields. So someone else can step in on that. I just saw that it carried 3 of the FOABs and then I found an inforgraphic online for context.
WSBpeon69420@reddit
Where did you see it carries 3 FOAB? The RS-26 is an ICBM that carries MIRVs
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
I saw that it carried that on the same Twitter post and I found the image from a Google search.
WSBpeon69420@reddit
You should check the sources. The FOAB is a gravity bomb that’s dropped from a plane. The RS-26 is an ICBM that has detachable reentry vehicles (usually made for nuclear payloads) to come down and hit targets individually. You can’t really drop a gravity bomb from an ICBM. Maybe the experimental payloads have a yield close to the FOAB but I don’t see anything like that
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Ah, I appreciate the information.
WSBpeon69420@reddit
No problem. I’m seeing different information about the RS-26 warhead about yield or total weight so people get confused all the time. Either way if it’s saying it can only carry a warhead of 1.2 tons -the FOAB weighs 15,000 lbs
uniquelyavailable@reddit
that would be a measurable escalation, do they have reason to do so?
Burn__Things@reddit (OP)
Biden finally enabled deep strikes into Russia. Ukraine hit an arms base the other day. So could be in retaliation to that.
uniquelyavailable@reddit
yes. my point is that, when a mouse bites you, you wouldnt flatten it with a steamroller. the looney toons alarmist narrative that there will be a scaled retaliation fits into the fear agenda, but not the traditional rationale of wargames. but what do i know, im nobody and my opinion means nothing.
ridebird@reddit
They're russians. In your example that is exactly how russians would respond. Do not believe for a second russians, and especially it's ruling class, has a sense of humanity and fairness.
y___o___y___o@reddit
12 Storm Shadow missiles were launched into Russia from Ukraine an hour or two ago.
BringbackDreamBars@reddit
Isn´t their rumours a VIP bunker was targeted too.
uniquelyavailable@reddit
smaller missiles. i would place my bet on a smaller return of force.
climbermedic@reddit
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RS-26_Rubezh
Echad_HaAm@reddit
The conventional warhead of the RS-26 is only ½-⅔ the size of the FAB 3000 glide bombs Russia has already been using in Ukraine, all this does is allow the larger warhead to reach anywhere in Ukraine instead of only closer to the Frontline.
It's the usual Russian propaganda effort to make something seem much more scary than it actually is along with them obviously being low on missiles and using this out of desperation.
BringbackDreamBars@reddit
Is this supposed to be a conventional version of the RS-26?