Russia potentially preparing to use non-nuclear icbm's against Ukraine
Posted by Lithium321@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 360 comments
Both Russian and Ukrainian mil bloggers have reported that Russia is preparing to use rs-26 icbm's with a 1.8t conventional warhead after western countries allowed their missiles to be used against Russian territory. Multiple embassies in Kyiv have been closed today (for the first time in the war) due to fears of a massive air attack.
Due to its primary nuclear attack mission the rs-26 has poor accuracy with estimates of CEP ranging between 90 and 250m. The use of such an inaccurate weapon against a large city would essentially be indiscriminate.
skunimatrix@reddit
Looks like we get to test THAAD under real world conditions.
Hope1995x@reddit
How does THADD range reach an ICBM that can be 2000 miles inland of Russia?
skunimatrix@reddit
Intercepts outside the atmosphere.
Hope1995x@reddit
The MIRVs & decoys might be released by then, especially since the distance helps.
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/stss/
The system has tested successfully, but I admit I don't know if they've demonstrated the ability to distinguish warheads vs decoys and successfully only target actual warheads. But the detection and tracking systems seem to be there, at any rate.
Hope1995x@reddit
Have the set up real-world test conditions, such as engaging 200 decoys and 20 real warheads?
The US & Israel still wasn't able to engage dozens of Iranian warheads, and to be fair, I think they target critical stages before the warheads are released.
I could be wrong, so I'll have to look into it.
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
Well, they say
...but I'm not aware of any publicly-released information beyond that, unfortunately.
In all fairness, that's a pretty good point. I will say though, that while I would assume we probably did relay targeting data to Israel, I can't be completely sure that we did; however, I think we can assume that the US ships that launched about a dozen interceptors were being fed that targeting data. I haven't heard how many of those were successful, which would definitely be useful information here.
If you do find any more information on any of it, I'd love to know what you find! :)
KSRandom195@reddit
It is far easier to deal with a MIRV missile before it becomes multiple vehicles, so they’d be targeting the apogee.
Hope1995x@reddit
Distance is probably the best countermeasure. If they can crank up the speed of a ballistic missile, they could probably get them up there fast enough to release the warheads & decoys.
This is what makes SLBMs so dangerous. It adds distance that complicates ABM defense, and the location is unpredictable. And the warheads can be released in time.
dank_tre@reddit
Uh, there’s like 12 in existence, none in Ukraine
A THAAD has 8 interceptors, no time to reload
Estimates are 40% in real world conditions
What THAAD’s excel at, however, is laundering public money to the 1%
simulacrymosa@reddit
AFAIK the US keeps denying their requests for THAAD. I assume that could just be what is publicly disclosed to avoid provoking escalation, though.
acidtalons@reddit
Thaad or aegis ashore is in Poland. They could claim they couldn't tell where it was going to land or were concerned about a nuclear payload or fallout. Then intercept it.
skunimatrix@reddit
Russians weren’t using ICBM’s before. We’ve already proven the system or at least the Israeli version of it recently intercepting Iranian ballistic missiles. But this would be a way of directly showing Russia, and by extension NK and China, fuck your ballistic missiles we can shoot them down effectively.
often_says_nice@reddit
I have a question… if they’re launching an ICBM, how do we know what’s in the payload before it hits? Do we just have to trust the word of the country that launches it?
I imagine if they launched a nuclear payload then there would be immediate retaliation before it even lands. But how would anyone know if it’s nuclear or not while in the air?
avid-shtf@reddit
Unfortunately the answer is no. Both nuclear and conventional payloads can be carried on the same delivery system with identical trajectories during the boost phase. Ground-based or space-based sensors cannot distinguish between payload types by observing the missile’s flight.
Early warning systems, such as satellites and ground-based radar, detect the launch and track the missile’s trajectory. However, these systems focus on the missile’s path, not its warhead’s type.
The heat signature, acceleration, and reentry vehicle dynamics are similar for both nuclear and conventional warheads.
If the missile carries Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles, the situation becomes more complex. Each warhead could be nuclear or conventional, and the missile may also deploy decoys to confuse defenses.
Unless the United States decides to reveal some next-level tech that has never been used before, the only option is to intercept it at launch or find out after reentry.
yourname241@reddit
Wouldn't a nuclear armed warhead create a radiation path as it flies through the air?
geneticeffects@reddit
Fair question. Many nuclear bombs now do not have the fallout of early iterations. And those that would have fallout, I think, would have such a small amount of internal radiation (from Plutonium or Uranium) that it would be almost impossible to measure in flight.
AlphaLoris@reddit
You are misunderstanding what 'fallout' is here.
geneticeffects@reddit
Sorry, I am talking about two separate points in one, and was not being crystal clear.
Fallout is from nuclear explosion that casts radioactive material in the cloud formed from the explosion.
A nuclear bomb with Plutonium or Uranium would have a radioactive signature, but it would be almost impossible to measure it as the missile is in flight.
IndiRefEarthLeaveSol@reddit
I thought fallout was the churned up dirt and material into the upper atmosphere from a blast.
geneticeffects@reddit
See paragraph two.
No-Breadfruit-4555@reddit
Yes, technically. But not practically detectable.
indranet_dnb@reddit
No…
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
Using a non-nuclear MIRV full of decoys would be an intelligence windfall for NATO. What better way to see how Russian ballistic countermeasures behave than to see them in action? Such satellite telemetry would be absolutely invaluable.
Too bad the price paid is the deaths of innocent Ukrainian civilians…
Pitiful-Let9270@reddit
Isn’t this literally the point of the Ukraine aid? We know Russia is making a move toward Europe and that conflict is inevitable. So we get a chance to see our systems in action against their systems without escalation to nuclear war
BillyTheKidd556@reddit
No... the point of the ukraine aid is to get ukraine into nato or destroy Russia trying. Had we just told them no, you can't join, the war wouldn't have happened. The problem is that Congress did not approve this, and the American people don't approve of it. We are literally attacking Russia with American missiles. It's not going to end well. Why is ukraine joining nato more important than all of humanity on earth? You can't tell me it's because putin is dangerous. He has shown way more restraint than the so-called free and democratic countries.
ManOfTheCosmos@reddit
Russia attacks Ukraine with foreign troops and foreign weapons, but you freak out when Ukraine uses a few American tactical missiles against Russia.
Low iq.
HugsFromCthulhu@reddit
Russia launches full scale invasion of a sovereign nation - Restraint
Western countries endlessly debating over whether we should send aid and exactly how much and what restrictions we put on it - Escalation
ManOfTheCosmos@reddit
Literally the opposite. Are you like 12?
HugsFromCthulhu@reddit
I thought I made it clear I was being sarcastic and demonstrating the idiocy of thinking the US/Europe is escalating and Russia is showing restraint. Edited comment to hopefully better reflect that.
Forsaken_Silver432@reddit
Let's have a moment of silence for Ukraine, because it's now Russia.
Pitiful-Let9270@reddit
Why would Ukraine want into nato if Russia was never going to attack them?
Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit
They actually already did this with their Zircon, IIRC
Big-Professional-187@reddit
Did Russia and China have a brain fart thinking the US didn't have hypersonic? Most appolo astronauts who had their astronaut patch before the program did so with hypersonic aircraft.
pants_mcgee@reddit
The US didn’t have hypersonic weapons when China and Russia started rolling theirs out, or at least claiming they had them. The U.S., being rather good at developing weapons, then decided to make their own.
CoffeeMadeMeDoIt_2@reddit
All known ICBM's including the Minuteman missile series are hypersonic weapons.
That means the US had hypersonic weapons Decades before the Chinese did & also before the Russians did because the first Russian ICBM's weren't Russian, they are all Soviet. Russia didn't exist as an ICBM-capable Nation (or as a Nation at all) until 1991.
Big-Professional-187@reddit
Hypersonic glide vehicles didn't have the range but had to be acknowledged publicly after China and Russia demonstrated a long range capacity with them. They're not new at all.
Big-Professional-187@reddit
Yeah they did. Russia and China solved the fuel issue making them go from a defensive ace up sleeve to stand off capability.
TypicalFNG@reddit
*taps the Sprint missile*
pants_mcgee@reddit
Sure, 50 years ago.
The U.S. stopped messing with hypersonic weapons because there really wasn’t a point once the USSR had a decent stockpile of working ICBMs.
AmaTxGuy@reddit
Us has always been developing them, but no need to put them on the front burner as they are far more expensive.
Imagine putting it on the front burner and it's done on a few months. That's what we did
pants_mcgee@reddit
I’m not aware of any hypersonic weapons development before the latest push, all that stopped sometime during the Cold War since there was no real need for them. Still might not be, but the Chinese glide vehicle is interesting.
Lots of development of engines for hypersonic aircraft, with some cool demonstrations this century.
Big-Professional-187@reddit
Didn't? Um... Sure.
No-Breadfruit-4555@reddit
Big difference between hypersonic aircraft and accurate hypersonic missiles
Big-Professional-187@reddit
No. Difference between 1-100km range and 2000km range for the same size fuel storage. Range.
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
The Iskander is in no way similar to an ICBM. That’s what I’m referring to.
Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit
It was still an Intel boon for the same reason
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
Yes, I agree with you. But SRBMs and air-launched ballistic missiles aren’t particularly mysterious. Remember that Saddam Hussein was throwing them around willy-nilly in the 80s and 90s, with Soviet supplied SCUDs. We have yet to see what a multiple independently-targeted reentry vehicle-based attack, with full decoys, from the Russians would look like. We only have an academic understanding of their capabilities.
No-Breadfruit-4555@reddit
That’s assuming they launch a modern, up to date ICBM
popthestacks@reddit
They already know this, it’s useless. There’s also no system in existence that’s protected at scale that can counter this. We’re basically fucked.
Big-Professional-187@reddit
Decoy idea was to have one hotter than the others to run interference like how the point chopper in a formation would draw aa fire from NVA or guerilla air defenses away from the more valuable assets. It's the same principle behind a plane dropping flares, but modern heat seeking guidance from the linebackers to modern manads have ways to filter it out as do the guidance on the missles themselves have better tech and options for the operator to improvise in transit for shenanigans.
Livy__Of__Rome@reddit
You are overstating the value of such an event from an intel standpoint. Yes, it would be interesting and studied, but "invaluable" is not correct.
Blocking a nuclear attack would still be impossible.
BigManWAGun@reddit
Really guys this is just a normal kill a few thousand people in a 250m radius kind of bomb. Trust us.
AdamAThompson@reddit
Russia is downwind. They don't want a big boom.
Spectre696@reddit
They also want to conquer Ukraine, difficult to do when it’s glowing red hot.
J0E_Blow@reddit
Arthur Harris enters the chat.
HumansAreET@reddit
Didn’t Putin just change the requirements for the use of nuclear weapons?
ElectroMcGiddys@reddit
This will be a fantastic opportunity for the West to practice its detection and alert capabilities.
Thanks for being a stupid fuck, putler.
who_took_tabura@reddit
Donald trump frantically opening a small steel case and rifling through index cards:
“In bright… est- brightest days; I mean day, I said day”
thisbliss2@reddit
Good grief. It’s as if you have no idea who the current president is, you know, the one who actually authorized Ukraine to use US missiles against Russia.
Middle-Classless@reddit
Russia started all this bullshit when they invaded Ukraine
SlumLordOfTheFlies@reddit
It's all Trumps fault for forcing Biden's hand.
SnooMacarons5140@reddit
Biden gazing out the window… mouth open. Seeing mushroom clouds, thinking about Ice cream.
KSRandom195@reddit
Are they shielding the warheads? If not we could detect the radiation.
avid-shtf@reddit
The warheads are shielded. Not specifically for avoiding detection but more so to protect the nuclear payload from environmental factors such as heat, moisture, and vibration.
The majority of the missile’s flight time is spent in space. There’s background radiation in space that put out more of a radioactive signature than the actual warhead.
On top of all of that, the sheer speed of an ICBM makes it impossible for any kind of sensors to collect sufficient data to analyze its payload.
During its boost it has a speed of 6,000-9,000 mph.
During its mid course phase (in space) it’s traveling over 15,000 mph.
During its reentry phase it’s traveling between 11,000-16,000 mph.
This is why they’re such a challenge to intercept and determine its payload.
Separate_Ad2164@reddit
"Unfortunately the answer is we wouldn’t know."
Just like Russia doesn't know whether the nuclear-capable ATACMS long-range missiles we are launching deep into Russia are carrying nuclear payloads.
We are the bad guys here.
TantrikLily@reddit
ATACMS are short range missiles. They are not capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. You don't have a clue of what you are talking about.
fattest-fatwa@reddit
Start with the premise that we are the bad guys, Russia is the good guys, and work backwards from there, please.
TantrikLily@reddit
Russia invaded a sovereign nation. They are not, in any way shape or form, the good guys.
No-Breadfruit-4555@reddit
Except Ukraine does not (officially) have access to nuclear weapons. So, assuming an ATACMS (what, 200 ish mile range?) is nuclear when launched from a non-nuclear weapons power (a stretch) is not nearly the same as assuming an ICBM from a major nuclear power who regularly threatens to use them is nuclear.
It’s one thing to say we shouldn’t be in Ukraine, but saying we are the bad guys here is fucking ridiculous in the extreme.
Separate_Ad2164@reddit
Russia's invasion of Ukraine was not the unprovoked attack you War Pigs say it was.
It started in 1990 when James Baker promised Gorbachev that NATO would not expand one inch further eastward if Russia agreed to the reunification of Germany, thereby officially ending WW II.
Gorboacheve agreed, but within four years we began expanding NATO eastward anyway.
The Russian invasion occurred when NATO began teasing NATO membership for Ukraine, whose name literally means "borderland" because it is on the border with Russia and has been the entry point for multiple invasions of Russia in the past.
Boiled_Beets@reddit
The mental Olympics it takes to somehow paint Russia as the victim here are insane.
hadtobethetacos@reddit
The US government has been the bad guys for some time now.
Boiled_Beets@reddit
And invading a sovereign country because an empire 120+ years ago used to belong to them is a good thing?
Whataboutisms can't make that go away.
hadtobethetacos@reddit
I never said russia was a victim, or that theyre right in their actions. but that doesnt mean the US government is not the bad guys. Theres so much corruption, and so much war profiteering in our government its absurd.
corduroystrafe@reddit
Yep- while this sub is astroturfed to hell, the brazenness of it does amaze me. What do people think the US would do if Russia gave Mexico missiles and said strike US cities?
Boiled_Beets@reddit
Let's not pretend the Russians haven't been pushing the envelope for years. Cyber attacks on civilian infrastructure INCONUS for years, to include hospitals, energy facilities, etc. Attempting to meddle in political affairs, propping up adversaries & despotic regimes.
Not even touching on the 2014 invasion of Crimea, which Russia initially denied.
A poor comparison, the US hasn't been trying to sieze a portion of Mexico over the last decade.
hadtobethetacos@reddit
lol ikr. theres no questioning that its direct involvement.
Boiled_Beets@reddit
And what point does that prove, exactly?
Does it deligitimize the Ukraine struggle?
hadtobethetacos@reddit
You completely deflected the other guys comment about the us being the bad guys, and went straight to accusing him of saying russia is the victim, which he didnt. I was just letting you know that the us government is the bad guy.
Boiled_Beets@reddit
Wait, the other guys comment was you?
Boiled_Beets@reddit
At no point was that ever up for debate, it's a useless factoid everyone with a pulse & internet access can figure out.
by stating the commonly spammed "uS iS tHe bAdGuY" trope, it implies innocence on the other half of the struggle.
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
Hahahahahaha
avid-shtf@reddit
Very incorrect statement.
ATACMS has a range of 300 kilometers and does not have nuclear warhead capabilities.
RS-26 has a range of 6,000 kilometers with multiple nuclear warhead capabilities.
There’s nothing you can say that will give me any sympathy for Russia.
Ok_Feedback_8124@reddit
[TR3B Has entered the chat ...]
AudienceOdd482@reddit
What a time it would be if they revealed it's existence
Wrong_Confection_305@reddit
Good answer. It’s why icbm tests come with a lot of advertising beforehand.
KernunQc7@reddit
Late, but short answer to your question: we don't. But there is a very high price for nuclear strikes against non-nuclear states.
If they would use nukes in UA, NATO intervention would be guaranteed.
Captspaulding1@reddit
Just reading the book nuclear war by Annie Jacobsen and this is one of the questions it poses when a launch of an ICBM is detected. Interesting read so far
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
I can't remember why specifically, but a lot of people who are really into studying nuclear war said that Annie Jacobsen painted a very pessimistic view. I think a lot of the criticism was that she was effectively making lightly educated guesses on a lot of classified things and that she painted a plausible, but unrealistic scenario. Its worth looking at the detractors.
Either way, very scary book.
Figgler@reddit
Yeah one thing I remember being skeptical about was Russia automatically assuming that an ICBM launch from the US would be aimed at Russia, especially when they would most certainly be aware that North Korea had just launched one at us. The phone call would take place between DC and Moscow within minutes.
DeaditeMessiah@reddit
Game theory: The only way to “win” a nuclear war (so we can then die anyway due to climate damage) is to hit their nuclear weapons on the ground. A first strike. The corollary is that the only way to not lose is to launch before a first strike destroys your weapons. So any nuclear capable weapons (like ATACMs) that is launched toward their arsenal is likely to result in an immediate counterattack. Which is why this policy is fucking tantamount to Biden flipping over the planet because he lost.
treefox@reddit
No. With Trump getting elected, Putin has a shot at getting him to withdraw aid from Ukraine. But he’s forced to wait.
Biden escalating makes that waiting as painful as possible for Putin. And if Putin decides to make good on his threats, it’s going to scare the shit out of Europe and rally them against Russia.
Biden is turning the loss against Trump into leverage against Putin. It’s a good move.
IndiRefEarthLeaveSol@reddit
Also known as Escalate to De-escalate. 😉
thee_body_problem@reddit
The message i took from her story was more that with such a tiny time frame with which to make the kind of secure verified contact that could lead to nuclear countries standing down an attack/ counterattack, basic human errors like not immediately picking up the phone or not getting the message to the right person right away in all the confusion and chaos of those first ten minutes would have disproportionately disastrous consequences.
Usually human systems can tolerate a certain amount of incompetence and delay and still get to roughly the right place at the more or less right time, but the infrastructure around nuclear war has to be so quick to respond that the machine outraces humans almost instantly. The consequences being widespread annihilation turns these almost insignificant mistakes and delays into nation-killing failures, and there is maybe not enough specific effort given to maintaining high levels of competence around the people in charge to set them up for success instead of failure during that ten minute window. We're always battling the human tendency to relax precautions, especially when in their daily life it is a danger that truly does not seem to exist, but when it's time to act NOW, that's when discipline and preparation pays off. There's just no time built in to these scenarios to stop and think first, and in a crisis people are already horrible at thinking beyond their own existential terror. And perhaps there is no level of discipline and effort that would guarantee we'd even have a shot. While it should be plausible that proper communication would save us all, it'd be pretty much a miracle for all the humans involved to be able to get their shit together and properly communicate in time to shut it all down, even if they genuinely tried their entire best.
And that's before the next tankful of certifiable clowns take charge.
jchapin@reddit
Yeah, it’s an absolutely worst case scenario depicted from the start all the way to the president pissing himself laying on the ground in the woods of Northern Maryland.
mementosmoritn@reddit
Contrast it with nuclear war survival skills. Facts and research based book from the 80s.published by ORNL
TheZingerSlinger@reddit
The possibilities for miscalculation if Russia uses ICBMs on Ukraine are concerning.
What if one of these ICBMs goes off course and heads for Poland? In case of a nuclear attack on the US, its president has literally a few minutes to decide on a response. The leadership of Poland and NATO would have the same or less.
Poland doesn’t have its own nukes. The UK does. What if a Russian ICBM goes off course and heads for London or thereabouts? Accidentally-on-purpose wink wink.
Even I don’t think Putin is stupid enough to launch a nuke at a NATO country outside of a full-scale exchange.
But a Russian ICBM even with a conventional warhead heading for a NATO country would be a dangerous mess.
treefox@reddit
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
I think that such an "error" would be identified rather quickly.
https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/stss/
TheZingerSlinger@reddit
Sure, they’ll see it immediately. It’s what happens after that where the potential for weird shit comes into play.
Outrageous-Rope-8707@reddit
She is so over the top dramatic. Hearing her on Rogan gave me “gets off on nuclear apocalypse fanfic” vibes.
Both_Ad307@reddit
Everyone should read that book.
Fuzzy-Combination275@reddit
Read it twice. Nuclear war is un-winnable.
AmaTxGuy@reddit
Fun fact the us forest service got rid of their forest fire towers because they got a decommissioned ballistic launch detection system. It's so accurate that they had to lower the sensitivity as it would give false positives.
Imagine how accurate the replacement system is?
https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/
knightofterror@reddit
This book will make you reconsider any notions that clear war on any scale is feasible or ‘winnable.’ Sobering but excellent read!
Wild-Lengthiness2695@reddit
The general convention is that Russia would inform the US that a conventional strike is happening , likewise the US would inform Russia.
Neither side wants to accidentally trigger a nuclear exchange.
Technoinalbania@reddit
and we'd just believe them?
Outrageous-Rope-8707@reddit
There’s levels to geopolitics. This situation isn’t Biden vs Putin controlling things in a vacuum. Both men are part of a broader network of the entire country (military, oligarchs, diplomats etc). Leaders in both the US and Russia have channels of communication, even if they publicly deny it. This seemingly reckless saber rattling is actually a somewhat choreographed dance we call “strategic ambiguity”.
And it’s fucking annoying.
Thaalos@reddit
This.
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
The fact that Russia is using non-nuclear ICBMs shows how worn-down and depleted their armed forces are. They’re using these because all their IRBMs and SRBMs are already used up. The US would never use a valuable ballistic missile so wastefully.
Amazing_Connection@reddit
I don’t think it shows the depleted resources as much as they’re testing the missile capabilities. Russia has been increasing their reserves unfortunately. As well as using expendable infantry
yoyopomo@reddit
Are you 10?
thrublue22@reddit
That is not a good assumption to make.
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
I would think it's more of a warning that they could use nukes but are choosing not to.
Figgler@reddit
Every country that launches objects into space notifies others when they do so, except North Korea.
Young_warthogg@reddit
The answer for this and for the invasion is intelligence. There is no way to decipher the payload being nuclear or not. But my guess is since the US publicly announces they know Russia’s intentions, they have a comprehensive spy network in the Russian military.
HornyErmine@reddit
Well... It looks like they launched it around 40m ago.
Fictional-adult@reddit
We don’t know what a missile is delivering when it launches, but we do know where it’s going. A launch targeting Ukraine, even with 100% certainty it is a nuclear weapon, would not trigger any kind of automatic response from NATO.
A single ICBM launch, even targeting a NATO country, isn’t likely to trigger an automatic response. There would absolutely be a severe response, but it would be measured and calculated. An automatic missile response is reserved for doomsday scenarios. For anything less than doomsday, we want to craft a response that avoids doomsday.
dontgoatsemebro@reddit
Doctrine states in the event of a nuclear attack on a NATO member state a statement will be immediately broadcast explaining how deeply concerned NATO is.
MrVelocoraptor@reddit
NATO is now launching an investigation after Russia claims it accidentally nuked Poland and pinky swears he won't do it again.
AverageIowan@reddit
As long as they don’t ’strongly condemn’ it. Whew.
Accomplished_Car2803@reddit
I have read lots of stories about how in the cold war people were manning launch stations 24/7 and almost launched nuclear icbms on many occasions, in response to a perceived launch from the other side that didn't actually happen.
Tinfoil hat time...it's like telling someone a gun is loaded with blanks but oops haha there's live ammo in it. Declare beforehand that your nuclear icbms are totally just gonna be loaded with conventional explosives, haha trust us guys :3. And then no one shoots it down until the mushroom cloud is rising over the ruins and it's too late.
DeaditeMessiah@reddit
That’s the reason they consider our firing of ballistic missiles into their territory to be an escalation. Those long range missiles could be nuclear too.
first_time_internet@reddit
Density of the warhead, radiation emissions
Both_Ad307@reddit
In some fast-paced show on cable, maybe... First of all, nuclear warheads don't just give off radiation. They are well shielded so they can be handled. Second, there are no sensors that exist that can tell us what is strapped to the front of a missile.
As for mentions of special aircraft elsewhere in the comments, they have sensors that detect radiation are designed for making battle damage assessments, which means after the thing has exploded and spread radiation absolutely everywhere.
UltimateKane99@reddit
There's no way to get an accurate read on radiation emissions, while in flight, that is remotely fast enough.
Nuclear launch preparations are meticulous, but, more importantly, they're time sensitive. If the launch command is given, it needs to be launched IMMEDIATELY, or the missile silos risk being wiped out in the first salvo, rendering them useless. They don't have time to wait to confirm if a warhead is conventional or nuclear, they just assume nuclear and launch.
alkbch@reddit
If we don't know whether it's nuclear or not while in the air, how would there be an immediate retaliation before it even lands?
Besides, it's not in the interest of the U.S. to retaliate with nuclear power.
-rwsr-xr-x@reddit
Just a note that nuclear weapons rarely, if ever, actually hit the ground. They do the most damage by detonating well above their target area.
erbush1988@reddit
Can't know.
Lawr those bitches out of the sky anyway.
It's good practice.
DotFinal2094@reddit
That's the CIA's job
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
The answer, I think, is that there’s a good chance US satellite Intel would see the missile being prepped prior to launch. It’s not like Russia routinely has ICBMs sitting in silos or on trucks with conventional warheads. That’s not really what those missiles are for. So we would see the preparation for the launch and have a pretty good idea, although not 100 %, that it was conventional.
There would at least be enough doubt to have to let it land before making a retaliatory decision.
AverageIowan@reddit
As long as they don’t ’strongly condemn’ it. Whew.
AdditionalAd9794@reddit
Wouldn't it make sense to view any strategic bomber with the same scrutiny, or any medium ranged missle.
Damn near every delivery system is nuclear capable
HybridVigor@reddit
From the Wikipedia entry on ATACMS:
tinareginamina@reddit
It’s classified but I believe we can tell. I just don’t know exactly how.
Ajenthavoc@reddit
This is the argument of Russian doctrine as well. From their perspective, these long range missiles require nuclear powers for delivery and as such may contain nuclear warheads. That's the implication of them being utilized in this way.
This was a very high level of escalation because of this issue. Russia's only solution is to create a massive deterrent to prevent anymore use of these weapons and that means an unprecedented attack on Kiev. I don't see this going well either way.
1) Russia does not adequately respond and now someone down the road could use a nuclear device in one of these weapons as a preemptive strike. Bad for the world
2) Russia responds with a very strong attack on Kiev dismantling the government. Bad for the West, but there is a future deferral of nuclear war
3) Russia escalates to tactical nukes which spirals out of control into nuclear war. Bad for the world
All three guarantee the end of Ukraine. I don't see why we should risk the rest of the world with them too with the hope that Russia is bluffing on their own doctrine.
Ajenthavoc@reddit
This is the argument of Russian doctrine as well. From their perspective, these long range missiles require nuclear powers for delivery and as such may contain nuclear warheads. That's the implication of them being utilized in this way.
This was a very high level of escalation because of this issue. Russia's only solution is to create a massive deterrent to prevent anymore use of these weapons and that means an unprecedented attack on Kiev. I don't see this going well either way.
1) Russia does not adequately respond and now someone down the road could use a nuclear device in one of these weapons as a preemptive strike. Bad for the world
2) Russia responds with a very strong attack on Kiev dismantling the government. Bad for the West, but there is a future deferral of nuclear war
3) Russia escalates to tactical nukes which spirals out of control into nuclear war. Bad for the world
All three guarantee the end of Ukraine. I don't see why we should risk the rest of the world with them too with the hope that Russia is bluffing on their own doctrine.
dick_thickwood@reddit
You won't have to wait too long.
Big-Professional-187@reddit
I wouldn't want to know how or if. Problem with the mobile icbms Russia uses is they ferry them around unfueled using heavy lift helicopters at night under cloud or even their own chaff and other countermeasures to prepositioned sites. Some seemingly inaccessible with natural cover like caves or forests. Some use nets, some are decoys. It's a nightmare.
Separate_Ad2164@reddit
We are launching nuclear-capable ATACMS long-range missiles deep into Russia and they have no idea what the payload is before they reach their destinations. US and Russia nuclear policies both authorize a nuclear response to such an attack. We are on the knife-edge of civilization-ending global nuclear war.
Biden's puppet masters would rather have WW III than relinquish power to Trump.
simulacrymosa@reddit
This tactic doesn't work when it can be so easily fact checked. Git gud.
UltimateKane99@reddit
... Ukraine is launching them, not whoever "us" is, ATACMS aren't nuclear capable (there is no variant of the ATACMS that can hold a nuclear weapon, as the US Congress explicitly banned adding nuclear capability to the ATACMS in 1984), and, even if they were, the US didn't give nuclear weapons to Ukraine to fight its war. This is the a wacky take.
AmaTxGuy@reddit
The us has launched the special nuclear detection craft. I am not sure how sensitive they are but they might be able to detect radiation patterns from a nuclear vs non nuclear warhead.
But anyway that's why us and ussr specifically agreed to not use ballistic missiles and to inform ahead of time any ballistic missile test.
Because we and them would assume any ballistic missile launch was nuclear based
J0E_Blow@reddit
They also don't have many of those missiles so this at least indicates that their nuclear warhead stockpile isn’t in great condition or they have far less warheads than missiles which is odd.
UndulatingHedgehog@reddit
At least some of the cruise missiles Russia routinely uses to bomb Ukrainian cities are nuclear capable.
4FuckSnakes@reddit
There seems to be some confidence regarding tactical nukes and the ability to monitor them leaving their storage areas. I’m not sure if strategic weapons are the same. They could be stored very close to these particular ICBMs making the warheads harder to monitor.
Enzo-Unversed@reddit
I never could have guess that the end result of this would be Russia bombing Ukraine harder.
WaffleBlues@reddit
I'm not sure it really matters. Russia has been launching various indiscriminate attacks against civilian targets throughout the war, I'm not providing sources because it takes all but 5 seconds to Google and find schools, hospitals, daycares, bus stations and apartments all on the receiving end of Russian war crimes.
Russia is always trying to posture that they have something more significant to escalate, and they do this to cause the exact reaction you just had - but they really don't, other than nukes.
Ukraine has been requesting increased range on western weapons for 2 years, well aware of Russian capabilities.
anis_mitnwrb@reddit
it definitely matters. the amount of civilian casualties in ukraine is very low compared to, for example, gaza. so if they were to be as indiscriminate as israel is, it would become a humanitarian catastrophe. i don't think it'll get to that level, though, because russia isn't trying eradicate ukrainians. just trying to make them love russia by bombing them somehow
Loose_Juggernaut6164@reddit
Ukraine doesnt put military assets in civilian populations.
Ukraine doesnt tell its citizens to stay in war zones to increase casualties.
In general, Ukraine cares about its people in a way Hamas does not. Hamas views every dead Palestinian as an asset to bolster their standing on the international stage. They literally shoot rockets out of children's bedrooms.
These situations are not comparable.
WaffleBlues@reddit
This is such an ignorant comparison. Ukraine is one of the largest land masses in Europe, Gaza is 141 square miles...smaller than most mid-sized US cities.
I don't think you are a Russian troll, but you are spreading Russian propaganda. Ukraine has a right to calculate its needs against Russia. Not you. Not France. Not Trump. Russia doesn't have the capabilities to indiscriminately bomb cities across Ukraine or they would have done it. They primarily rely on artillery, which means much of Ukraine is out of range. When they have been able to indiscriminately shell cities in Ukraine, they have.
Since they've been unable to acquire air superiority (or naval superiority...lol), they aren't able and instead rely on sending drone swarms into Kyiv, and periodic bombing runs. Not because they are holding back (this is also Russian propaganda) but because they simply don't have the capabilities they claim to, which is also why they are pulling out soviet era munitions and purchasing shells from N. Korea.
yeahbitchmagnet@reddit
If place is smaller but has a higher rate of destruction then they are definitely worse off. Gaza has had a way higher casualty rate and rate of infrastructure destruction. If Gaza was the size of ukraine and had the same rate then the number of casualties would be way higher than what ukraine is facing. I really don't know what your talking about. Just kinda seems like you hate Russians and Arabs the fact that ukraine is more destroyed to you than Gaza is
WaffleBlues@reddit
Why does it "kinda seem" like I hate Russians and Arabs?
yeahbitchmagnet@reddit
Because there's an actual genocide happening in Gaza but Ukraine has it worse to you. That's just so dishonest and is really the result of racism.
WaffleBlues@reddit
Ya, you are making a point - but what did I say that "kinda seems" like I hate Russians and Arabs? You didn't really clarify. The post you are replying to is literally about the Russo-Ukraine war, did you even know that?
Heffe3737@reddit
In addition, Russia doesn’t have nearly as many long range missiles as people might expect - largely because they’ve used them all up already. There’s a reason they only do a large flight of missiles/drones once every month or two - it’s because they’re using them as soon as they build them - the only reason they send them in mass waves is because that’s the only hope of any of them making it past Ukrainian air defenses.
st0j@reddit
All sides are depleting their stocks, ATACMS/Storm shadow is in very low supply which is why they want Germany to send Taurus, the Ukranians are having to volley fire ATACMS in hopes one of them can get through, they are not using them as intended. To think one side is getting depleted while the other is not is pure fucking delusion. It's a war of attrition.
Heffe3737@reddit
I'm not sure what this has to do with my post.
Seriously, I said, Russia is starting to run out of missile stock, which is objectively a good thing. And yet here you are screeching about how Ukraine and the west are running out too! When no one said anything at all about the west's stock. And then calling folks delusional for thinking one side is running out and that the other isn't, when literally no one made such a claim.
It's weird, man.
wyocrz@reddit
Americans have a say in it. That's why we elected Trump. If things go badly enough, we will pay a cost.
I don't buy this. The "glide bombs" have been being talked about for months. There's no reason they couldn't be turned against cities.
Maybe, just maybe, this hasn't been all out war against Ukraine.
WaffleBlues@reddit
Your post history is...fascinating..
You've replied to two of my replies, so I'm gonna try to respond to both here.
Russia doesn't have the capabilities to "level" kyiv, outside of its nukes. It was unable to achieve air superiority (which is enough of an indicator of how piss poor their capabilities actually are). Russia is also trying to craft a narrative around the war that "leveling" kyiv would obliterate.
When Russia has had opportunities to indiscriminately kill civilians, it has.
The US has been paying a costs for playing nice with Putin for two decades now. He's flattered some Republicans, which is why the right of center in US politics is currently in love with him (or homoerotic fascination, as a previous PM of the UK recently stated).
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/research/2022/06/anyone-can-die-at-any-time-kharkiv/
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/approaching-1000-days-of-russian-atrocities-and-ukrainian-resilience-uk-statement-to-the-osce
https://civiliansinconflict.org/press-releases/russias-indiscriminate-attacks-causing-civilian-deaths-in-ukraine-must-end/
https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/29/having-lost-kherson-russia-is-shelling-it-indiscriminately
wyocrz@reddit
Thanks.
I watched the disallowed interview between Tucker and Putin. I think Putin was generally correct when he said that the US is involved in a civil conflict we do not understand.
I also generally buy the idea that with Ukraine and Isreal firing off our munitions at such a high rate for so long, that we're running rather short.
The homoerotic angle you bring up is.......telling. The information war here goes many directions.
Stephen Colbert once called Trump "Putin's cock holster." This propaganda angle has made much hay in terms of suppressing non-partisan opposition to American actions during this absolute disaster.
WaffleBlues@reddit
"Interview" is a fun take on Tucker's engagement with Putin.
Yes, Putin wants to frame their invasion of Ukraine as a "civil" conflict, and consistently points to very specific points in time to try to tell this story (leaving out many other points in time). Putin doesn't appear to be a very accurate historian in making his arguments.
You have lots of opinions, but few sources. Why do you "generally buy" the idea that the US (I'm assuming this is what you mean by "we're" running "rather" short?
Of course there has been some production challenges around more advanced weaponry, such as HIMARS, as well as general ammunition shortage for certain type of weaponry. This is the case in all conflicts, and I am confident the US defense contractors are up for the challenge and probably even excited for it.
wyocrz@reddit
The first thing I did after watching it was pull a Will Durant history book off of the bookshelf, written in the 1950's. Putin's history checked out, and it was in that reading that I learned that Kiev is "The mother of Russian cities." Putin wasn't "ranting" as we were told to believe but instead was in seeming disbelief at Tucker's failure to prepare.
No doubt they're excited for it.
Fuck me for taking Eisenhower seriously, but that said: as fucked up as literally everything else in the country is right now, I am not so sure they're up for the challenge.
WaffleBlues@reddit
Again, you reference many things, but don't provide sources.
What do you mean "putin's history checks out"? Which of Durant's books (he wrote two on Russia) did you "pull off" the bookshelf?
What do you mean "I learned Kyiv is "the mother of Russian cities".
What do you mean "as we were told to believe"?
I could go on and on, but you have a very odd way of referencing things or angling things in a *very* pro-Putin way, without saying much of anything at all.
wyocrz@reddit
The reason I come at things an odd way is because I'm just some dude living in Wyoming, in the shadow of ICBMs, a Gen-X'r raised on Megadeth and 99 Red Balloons, with a minor in polysci/foreign policy and a keen appreciation for the First Amendment.
"As we are told to believe" is pretty clearly a reference to the fact that we're getting hit with propaganda, too.
The book was The Age of Faith. In the chapter on the Byzantine world, there is a subsection on the birth of Russia. The stuff Putin said lined up with what I read in that book. Simple.
What you are trying to do is paint me as a Russian stooge, one way or another. I've been watching this for almost three years.
I also read the Mueller Report when it came out, at least a big chunk of it. At the time, I concluded that Trump may have been open to colluding with the Russians, who pulled back because they didn't want to get caught in amateur hour.
I note that the thread of that report picks up in spring of 2014, right after the overthrow of the pro-Russian Ukrainian government. Gee, isn't that a bit sus?
WaffleBlues@reddit
I'm not "painting" you to be a Russian stooge, it is reasonable to ask for clarify around such vague statements. I'm still not sure I understand what exactly Putin said, that aligns with what you read in the The Age of Faith. Again, Putin says a lot of things, much of which is bullshit.
There is significant misinformation on Reddit (you know that, I know that), and the Russo-Ukraine war is no exception. Some less than genuine actors may broadly reference books, documentaries, interviews, studies without really specifying what they are referencing. I've found this to be a common tactic with Putin defenders, as well as significantly taking things out of context.
I'm not sure I understand your last statement, can you clarify?
wyocrz@reddit
Fair!
Regarding the last point: it's a question of motivation. Why did Russia attack at that time, in that way?
An answer could be that they were reacting to the overthrow of the pro-Russia government in Ukraine. You fuck with our elections, we fuck with yours.
The New York Times had a great piece in February of this year about the CIA flooding into Ukraine after that overthrow......something is smelly about all of this.
Ecstatic_Bee6067@reddit
Glide bombs have a range. Russian aircraft can't get close to any city except maybe Kharkiv and Sumy without getting shot down, and they doubtfully can muster enough simultaneous sorties to truly level the cities.
wyocrz@reddit
I don't know how current that is. There are news reports going back at least a year saying we're running short of munitions.
st0j@reddit
You getting downvoted is crazy. This subreddit is an echo chamber, and any point that goes against what individuals in this sub believe in is instantly downvoted. Glide bombs have been absolutely wrecking havoc on ukranian front lines, and they have no answer for them. The Russians lose a su34 once every few months at this point unless you believe the ukranians that they are down multiple every week, lol. Half the sub in for a shock once this war ends, and half the stuff they were told turns out to have been propaganda for the sake of keeping the support up.
wyocrz@reddit
It's wild to me that prepper subreddits are so willing to buy official stories.
My $0.02: I've always expected the government to lie to me. I just want to be able to make sense out of it, and none of this ever made any sense.
I was saying in the 90's that I didn't think we should be treating Russia like we just beat them, that it would have been as "noble lie" to credit them for actually dissolving the Soviet Union.
Living in the shadow of ICBMs certainly impacted my thinking about all this, to put it mildly.
st0j@reddit
Agreed. Both sides are putting out complete lies regarding the state of the war and the others' competency. I can't recall if a single article from either side in these 3 years has been true and not a propaganda piece. Time will tell.
aequitssaint@reddit
What are you even going on about? I'll give you the benefit of the doubt and hope this reply was actually meant for a different comment.
What does comparing the density of the two have to do with the dude being a Russian troll and what propaganda?
zll2244@reddit
wow two paragraphs of nothing, impressive… 👌🤡
WaffleBlues@reddit
Well, since you couldn't be bothered to answer the question, no need to most any more paragraphs, as I'd expect more of the same.
WaffleBlues@reddit
No thanks, I don't need your benefit of the doubt. Are you really asking what land mass/density has to do with how many civilians die during bombings?
Really?
aequitssaint@reddit
It's about increasing scale not total destruction, not solely casualties.
The indiscriminate total destruction is the comparison that is being made between the two. And in that respect Russia hasn't shown quite the same disregard and only used smaller munitions against areas far behind the front lines. Yes, much of that from lack of ability but this recent escalation shows that it wasn't entirely that.
My issue is that people are so damn quick to cry wolf and accusations of being pro Russian just for stating facts.
zll2244@reddit
don’t agree with this take. false equivalency comparison on several fronts and to even raise the question of which is worse is denouncing the fact both should not be happening.
anis_mitnwrb@reddit
obviously neither should be happening. but the idea that it can't get meaningfully worse in ukraine is simply not true
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
You have it backward. Russia is deliberately attacking nonmilitary targets as a matter of doctrine. Israel is, ironically, fairly restrained in its attacks on civilians, most often attacking civilian targets when it is discovered that they are being used for military purposes (incidentally, this is allowed by the Geneva convention). The civilian death toll is largely collateral damage, sprinkled with some genuine war crimes that Israel will need to be held to account for. But the Israelis are waging a much, much cleaner war than the Russians, even in spite of the humanitarian catastrophe that is Gaza.
Israel flattens a hospital: “yes we did it, because it was full of insurgents. Oh civilians were caught in the crossfire? A true tragedy! (Whispers off camera: “though I don’t particularly care”)
Russia flattens a daycare: “yes we did it. On purpose. Because fuck you. Now stop escalating the conflict you mean ol’ Ukrainians”
One of these things is not like the other.
Enzo-Unversed@reddit
The death toll in Gaza passed the Russo-Ukraine War within weeks. Nobody is buying this nonsense besides Boomers and Zionists. Everyone knows Israel is committing ethnic cleansing.
NonEuclidianMeatloaf@reddit
If their goal is simple ethnic cleansing… what’s taking them so long? The weight of the IDF could be bent toward eradicating the Gazans within a few weeks if that was their goal. Minutes if they were to use their nuclear stockpile. If the Israelis’ main goal is to ethnically cleanse gaza… well, they aren’t very good at it.
anis_mitnwrb@reddit
see, you're operating on the assumption that the IDF and Israeli government are competent. they're absolutely committing ethnic cleansing but they're also illiterate religious fanatics. but being the most incompetent people to ever wield advanced military hardware doesn't mean they're not war criminals
Surprisetrextoy@reddit
Israel has dropped the equivalent of 6 hiroshima sized atomic bombs into an area half the size of hiroshima. They've caused more rubble then there is in Ukraine and killed 70k women and children. They are just as bad as Russia when it comes to lack of restraint, and frankly, worse. They SAY there was a hamas guy in a camp. They say. And I guess there is one in all those apartement buildings in Lebanon. And also someone might be in a Palestinians house in the West Bank so we should probably kick them out and put a settler in instead... and also burn down all their olive groves. Isreael apology is just... weird.
wyocrz@reddit
Really?
Has Russia really tried to level Kviv?
Pennsylvanier@reddit
Did you, like, not see what Mariupol looked like when Russia finally occupied it?
wyocrz@reddit
It was a mess, but my point stands. Ukraine has proven incapable of stopping glide bombs, from what I know said bombs are not being aimed at Kiev.
Yet.
Pennsylvanier@reddit
Kyiv*
Russia will literally hit civilian structures in Lviv. Do you think Kyiv - the capital - isn’t being indiscriminately attacked by suicide drones and bombs?
wyocrz@reddit
My bad on spelling.
Yes, I think they are not being indiscriminately attacked. It has been over a year since reports to the media started coming out about drawing down weapons stocks. It's been many, many months since we started reading about front line positions not being able to defend against devastating glide bomb attacks.
Russia is going to be next door to whatever is left of Ukraine.
Jamesglancy@reddit
yes
Amazing_Connection@reddit
I mean , that’s the expected response.
poohthrower2000@reddit
"Bomb me harder daddy"
375InStroke@reddit
Russia testing our ability to intercept their nukes. Even if it's possible, how many can we stop? They're trying to find out, and then what would be the consequences for Europe and North America? If they drop a nuke, would we retaliate in kind, risking being attacked ourselves, or just let Ukraine burn, with Putin getting nothing more than a stern scolding in the UN? Fucking pathetic. We've been here before appeasing tyrants. It ended well for noone.
Alphadestrious@reddit
Bullshit . I dare em to try it
pisspantsmcgee666@reddit
They did.
lerpo@reddit
😂 Woah badass over here.
Alphadestrious@reddit
Exactly. Nothing is going to happen. Fear mongering
KernunQc7@reddit
"The use of such an inaccurate weapon against a large city would essentially be indiscriminate."
They use cruise missiles to target hospitals, energy infrastructure, etc. Doubt the indiscriminate use against civilians even popped up as a topic of conversation.
Particular-Fact-7820@reddit
A few hours ago, the Russians launched one from the Astrakhan region targeting the city of Dnipro. It was intercepted by the Ukrainian Air Force, likely using F-16s. Photos are now emerging showing RS-26 debris scattered across telephone lines.
KehreAzerith@reddit
The RS-26 carries dozens of warheads, the video showed them falling at hypersonic speeds in a symmetrical pattern.
It wasn't intercepted, that's what a MIRV looks like when it comes back down to earth.
Iamboringaf@reddit
And all of them have nukes... Why I just can't leave this planet 😫 hell no
mikethespike056@reddit
none of them had nukes
Working_Dependent560@reddit
At 100,000,000 a pop!
Livy__Of__Rome@reddit
Russia going this route wouldn't make sense. If these missiles get launched, it's a nuclear strike.
And NATO will not respond as there is no obligation to do so.
madladchad3@reddit
they just did
Livy__Of__Rome@reddit
"US official disputes Ukraine's claim that Russia used intercontinental ballistic missile" BBC
It's more Ukrainian lies. LOL
They lie about all kinds of shit to try and make the war support greater for themselves. You still not figured that out?
madladchad3@reddit
i live in korea and korean media says so 🥶 i dont know whats going on just dont kill me
Livy__Of__Rome@reddit
Both sides are lying for their advantage. Outside parties will confirm eventually if true.
Even-Plantain8531@reddit
We have the ukraines fight them now or US later.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
It’s almost as if the long range ATACAM’s escalated the situation. At what point do people begin to realize their over zealous cries for war will only bring more bloodshed not less.
kingofthesofas@reddit
I guess we should just give up and let our enemies do whatever they want because war is bad /s
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Either/or logically fallacy.
I’ve said something that goes against your weekly narrative and now you assume my position even though what you stated is not something I support. Common sign of a captured mind.
kingofthesofas@reddit
ok whatever you say Neville Chamberlain
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
I don’t support a policy of appeasement, what I do support is not expanding NATO to intentionally provoke a war with Russia. Stoltenberg even admitted this in parliament. But that’s too nuanced for the Reddit echo chamber everything must be Russia bad!
dreamrpg@reddit
NATO did not expand. It was forced to take in those countries. Poland even blackmailed its way into NATO.
You seem to skip a fact on why specifically Baltics and Poland wanted to be part of NATO. Look back to ww2 and you find out that ussr occupation of those countries happened at very first opportunity and was not lifted after war ended.
There is no reason to believe that Russia would not do the same, specially because Russia invaded Chechnya right after it decided to be independent from Russia.
Krimea was also occupied to create "buffer"? Donbass and Lugansk also? Those are silly ideas that whole thing is to make buffer.
The best buffer is cooperation at such level that war stops being beneficial for either side.
OliveIndependent@reddit
Doesn't invading a non NATO nation encourage other non NATO nations to either join NATO or build up a stockpile of nuclear weapons?
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
That is one perspective yes. In this case Russia wants a buffer between itself and NATO countries, the expansion of NATO against former promises gave Russia an excuse to forcefully create a buffer.
In my opinion both sides are wrong and could’ve avoided this but no the less Reddit is here to cry for war and more money for the military industrial complex.
No_Science_3845@reddit
Why do you think the people of Ukraine, Georgia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Hungary, Moldova, and Romania shouldn't have any agency in their lives?
Why should their existence rest solely on whether or not a geriatric sociopath wants to reconstitute a map from the 1800s and why are you openly supporting it?
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
So, like, are you an FSB shill for free, or do they actually know about you and send you money?
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Do you think anyone whom you disagree with is a paid shill? Your echo chamber must be the one and only perspective right?
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
No. People parroting chapter and verse from Russian propaganda are paid shills. Lots of them on the inter-webs.
Are you paid, or volunteer?
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
So you think a Russian FSB shill would be opposed to both Russia and the Wests actions?
Are you really this dense or what’s the deal?
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
So you have a cover story. Woopdeedoo.
WillBottomForBanana@reddit
It sounds like you support everything about a policy of appeasement except for the name. e.g. the stigma.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Incorrect I just think violence is the last and final resort and negotiations should always be open. What we see instead is an aggressive NATO expansion towards Russia which they specifically agreed not to do, then they were surprised when Russia went to war like they kept warning of years before. Then we imposed bad faith sanctions as in they were extremely weak and ineffective and Europe continued to buy Russian gas and oil. There are no good guys in this scenario and people like you have no idea what war really is. You don’t seem to understand that Ukraines war has cost them an unrecoverable population loss all at the appeasement of the military industrial complex.
But again Russia bad!
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
Yeah, how dare they allow countries to choose if they want to join. And why would Russia's neighbors want to join a defensive treaty organization, anyway?
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
This is where it’s important to be mature enough to separate fact and opinion. In the 1990’s Gorbachev was promised no further eastward expansion of NATO and Russia has used that broken promise as an excuse to invade Ukraine.
Now the opinion part, it’s understandable countries would want to join NATO, it’s also understandable Russia would want a buffer with NATO. See how both sides can be wrong?
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
It's good that you recognize that this is your opinion, and not fact.
Because the claim is utterly false. Not only is there no written agreement promising that, if there was, it would itself be contrary to the NATO charter. Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty states:
And to really get down to brass tacks, the idea that Gorbachev was promised no further eastward expansion of NATO is a lie, as stated by none other than Gorbachev, himself:
Mikhail Gorbachev: I am against all walls - Russia Beyond
You may or may not see the further issue regarding any such promise that Russian propagandists allege might have been made, so let me explain: the treaty in question did not even involve NATO as a distinct polity, but was between The Federal Republic of Germany, the German Democratic Republic, the French Republic, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America, as the treaty stated:
The disposition of forces in Germany was a decision to be made involving the unifying governments of Germany, as West Germany had been a member of NATO. It had nothing to do with NATO expansion into the then-existing Warsaw Pact.
Russia has used a lie as an excuse to invade Ukraine. This is where it’s important to be mature enough to separate fact and opinion.
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
It's good that you recognize that this is your opinion, and not fact.
Because the claim is utterly false. Not only is there no written agreement promising that, if there was, it would itself be contrary to the NATO charter. Article 10 of the North Atlantic Treaty states:
And to really get down to brass tacks, the idea that Gorbachev was promised no further eastward expansion of NATO is a lie, as stated by none other than Gorbachev, himself:
Mikhail Gorbachev: I am against all walls - Russia Beyond
You may or may not see the further issue regarding any such promise that Russian propagandists allege might have been made, so let me explain: the treaty in question did not even involve NATO as a distinct polity, but was between The Federal Republic of Germany, the German Democratic Republic, the French Republic, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America, as the treaty stated:
The disposition of forces in Germany was a decision to be made involving the unifying governments of Germany, as West Germany had been a member of NATO. It had nothing to do with NATO expansion into the then-existing Warsaw Pact.
Russia has used a lie as an excuse to invade Ukraine. This is where it’s important to be mature enough to separate fact and opinion.
WillBottomForBanana@reddit
The situation is already violent. I don't know how you missed that. It's been in all the news.
kingofthesofas@reddit
Yeah that's not why this war happened. That's the Russian propaganda view of why it happened. Russia isn't entitled to own Ukraine or any other of the states they border. This war happened because the west engaged in appeasement to a dictator multiple times when he attacked neighboring countries in the name of restoring former glory. Putin just uses useful idiots in the west to push that narrative. There is only one thing men like him respect and it's force. If you keep giving him more he will keep taking more and more. We already learned this lesson in WW2 with Hitler. The solution back then should have been to aggressively oppose any territory grabbed by Hitler because he was just going to keep grabbing more and more the same as it is today.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
So you’re saying the chief of NATO is a useful idiot and you know better than the majority of political scientists?
kingofthesofas@reddit
That is by no means the opinion of the majority of political scientists. It's the view of a small number of people that are in the new colonialist sphere of influence model which was pretty much destroyed when the cold war ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union. And yes they are useful idiots.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
I’m having trouble understanding your reasoning because neocolonialism assumes a developed country has control indirectly over some other undeveloped country. What Russia is doing is trying to create (albeit forcefully) a psychical buffer between themselves and NATO, which is not neocolonialism. Given you don’t seem to understand even that I find it unlikely that you actually know the thoughts of any political scientists.
I’ll trust the words of the NATO leaders over yours any day.
kingofthesofas@reddit
Let me help you understand since this is like geo-politics 101 and you don't seem to understand. The entire premise that Russia deserves a buffer zone is based on a spheres of influence model of geo-politics which is the same model that was pervasive in the colonial period and directly linked to colonialism https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence
Some quotes from the wiki article that are relivent to understanding the basic idea:
Criticising Russia in November 2014, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that "old thinking about spheres of influence, which runs roughshod over international law" put the "entire European peace order into question."[37] In January 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May said, "We should not jeopardise the freedoms that President Reagan and Mrs Thatcher brought to Eastern Europe by accepting President Putin's claim that it is now in his sphere of influence."
https://www.studentsofhistory.com/forms-of-imperialism
Spheres of Influence
A sphere of influence is when an outside power claims rights and privileges over an area or region. It is usually for trading and investment, but sometimes for military purposes as well. This often occurred in lands that bordered an already existing colony. Spheres of influence were most often established by a treaty. This treaty was usually between two controlling nations who agreed not to interfere with the other’s territory or between a controlling nation and a representative of the territory. This was usually the precursor to the establishment of a colony or protectorate.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Not quite, neocolonialism is predicated on the idea of a former colony still being controlled by the previous colonizer. Whereas a sphere of influence does not require the conditions of neocolonialism although the two can have overlap.
For instance the US war in Iraq was largely defined as a sphere of influence campaign yet it had nothing to do with colonialism.
You’re conflating the two and making a false equivalence fallacy.
kingofthesofas@reddit
sort of like how Russia considers Ukraine which was a former soviet republic part of its current "sphere of influence" and is now trying to conquer it by force. The entire war started when Ukraine got rid of the government that was a puppet of Putin in the 2014 Maidan Revolution. Before that it was effectively still a puppet state of Russia. Hence neo-colonialism
Definition of neo-colonialism:
"the use of economic, political, cultural, or other pressures to control or influence other countries, especially former dependencies."
so basically what Russia has been doing in Ukraine since the fall of a soviet union. It's Ukraines desire to end neo-colonialism and have true independence that is at the center of this conflict. Russia having tried all the economic, political and cultural pressures has resorted to politics by other means to keep it's former colony under it's control. Which is why this has nothing to do with NATO and everything to do with colonialism.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Your taking a centric approach to colonialism which sure is part of the situation but you cannot ignore the bigger elephant in the room which is eastward NATO expansion. If you think that has nothing to do with the current conflict then you’ve been ignoring the last 50 years of geopolitics.
kingofthesofas@reddit
Considering Putin said publicly recently that there was no threat from Finland and Sweden joining "President Vladimir Putin said on Monday that there was no threat to Russia if Sweden and Finland joined NATO" and even suggested Russia could join nato and Putin openly said there was no issues with other former states joining NATO and until 2014 no NATO troops were stationed in those countries.
I think it is safe to say that the whole NATO expansion line is BS.
Awkward_Ostrich_4275@reddit
What is the middle ground where this isn’t an either/or situation? From my view, the middle ground is still “let russia take Ukraine by not supporting them militarily”.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
No that is not my opinion. I’d say we continue to support Ukraine in its small arms kinetic strategy but immediately discontinue any form of long range or ballistic offensive support. Every time Ukraine escalates Russia will do the same, and we know historically the Russian war machine will grind small countries into a pulp no matter the cost.
Alongside that change we also need good faith sanctions and negotiations. We’ve seen only bad faith sanctions where the US and allies knew such actions wouldn’t have any sway with Russians, ie Europe has been buying Russian gas and oil like mad since the war broke out. We’ve also seen that Ukraine and the US have had little to no contact with Putin to try and negotiate hence the west has not made good faith efforts to de-escalate.
I know it makes people uncomfortable to see the West isn’t the savior they’ve been told, both the West and Russia are bad guys in this scenario. The end result being countless humans lived destroyed when it was entirely avoidable from both sides.
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
It is. He just doesn’t have the balls to say it out loud.
901savvy@reddit
Coward
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
It’s quite easy crying for war from the comfort of your home isn’t it? You have no idea what war means for everyone involved .
SionJgOP@reddit
The outlook for being a pacifist is bleak too. We're fucked either way.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
I don’t know about you but there were and still are other interventions that won’t appease and also won’t escalate. The black and white thinking you have is the reason this war is escalating.
SionJgOP@reddit
We need to give them more weapons, because quite frankly it is not looking good for them long term. You are just being pretentious. Bomb Russia we're already in a hybrid war.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
Ukraine doesn’t have the manpower to sustain this war, what happens after the war when half the male population is dead? What did they win a couple hundred square miles and for what?
If you’re so enthusiastic about war why haven’t you joined it yet? Again, you have no idea what war actually means and your crying for war from the comfort of your first world home while others lay in a field bleeding out for no reason.
Emotional-Rise5322@reddit
Ask the Ukrainians if there’s no reason.
SionJgOP@reddit
Again, you are being pretentious as fuck, you know nothing about me or anyone you use the line on.
Second, Ukranians want to keep fighting, so we should be supporting them now. They have very good reasons to be fighting this hard. We can help Ukraine rebuild and deal with aftermath when they decide it's time to stop fighting. I'm not sure what the point is worrying about their demographics when they still want to defend themselves.
WillBottomForBanana@reddit
Ukraine chose to use the weapons, has been wanting to use them this way. Ukraine is the country facing the ramifications. Ukraine made an informed decision. Sorry you don't like bullies getting punched in the face.
HaveYouAwoken@reddit
I don’t think you’ve ever thought of the cost of war. I actually do enjoy Russia paying for its aggression but you have to understand that means the complete and irreversible destruction of innocent lives which was very avoidable.
Smooth-Entrance-1526@reddit
Yeah no fucking shit
Anyone could have told you that the US and UK’s escalation would result is Russia using bigger more powerful bombs, up to and including nukes
rahnbj@reddit
Let’s remember that Putins wish is to assimilate Ukraine back into Russia, peppering it with radioactive decay isn’t exactly a winning strategy when you want the territory to be usable, IMHO.
BDB-ISR-@reddit
This is a direct result of the world holding Israel back after Iran's ballistic missile attacks. Just like the weak response to Russia's aggression vs Georgia and the annexation of Crimea is the direct cause of the current Ukraine war.
Tasty_Tip_68@reddit
You’re discussing Russia and Ukraine, check you feed.
Proper_Leave_6535@reddit
You pathetic clown, it's a direct response to the use of NATO ATACMS in Kursk.
This war has been mission creep after mission creep.. this alone should tell you how the war is going.
Tasty_Tip_68@reddit
Lol. “Pathetic Clown”.
anonamous1962@reddit
Earth is looking at a real nuclear war that is going to happen pretty much in my opinion for sure 100s of millions are going to die very very very soon in less than 2 weeks from right now I have seen some very very very scary data
Tasty_Tip_68@reddit
I’ll buy a comma for $100. Then I’ll buy you an aluminum foil hat.
ImJustPassingByy@reddit
There are reports as of 2 hours ago I’m seeing that this did in fact occur. Good intel!
ElRetardoSupreme@reddit
Is there any benefit besides a psychological one to using a ICBM in this situation over conventional cruise missiles?
J0E_Blow@reddit
No- it’s actually kinda an embarrassment. Their ICBMs are inaccurate and most nations have long range cruise missiles that’re accurately guided by GPS.
Ok_District2853@reddit
Didn’t they just test 6 ICBMs and get 5 failures on the pad? (And no video from the successful test)?
J0E_Blow@reddit
Something like that. Their Bulava new SLBM failed 30% of the time during a battery 34 test launches.
Ok_District2853@reddit
Ha. And no record of the other 70% right? I’m sure they went off perfectly.
want_of_imagination@reddit
ICBMs, especially those meant to carry nuclear weapons are inaccurate. Because accuracy doesn't matter much for them.
GPS guidance is a joke, towards an enemy who is expecting to be attacked. GPS will be jammed by the enemy. That's why all cruise missles also incorporate inertial navigation.
We can't really compare ICBMs and cruise missiles. ICBMs are practically impossible to intercept in later stages. They have extremely high range (that's why they are intercontinental) and extremely high speed.
J0E_Blow@reddit
he estimate that the Minuteman III's CEP improved to 100-120 meters (\~330-400 feet) by the late 1990s and 2000s is based on publicly available information about the Guidance Replacement Program (GRP) having to do with the NS-50 Guidance System.
The upcoming Sentinel ICBM (formerly GBSD) is expected to improve accuracy further, possibly reducing the CEP below 100 meters.
The RS-26 is a wheel "truck" driven system with a CEP "less than 200 meters" 660ft per the Russians. That less than half as accurate as American weapons and the Americans usually make their weapons sound worse than they are while the Russians try to make theirs sound better.
Context: F15 Program and recent SU-57 photos of home-depot screws.
It's idiotic and desperate to use an ICBM to attack a country contiguous with yours and to argue against that stinks of Russian Troll.
Girafferage@reddit
Signaling to nearby western european countries that they can be hit with one of these missiles and that they can fire them without anybody knowing what the payload or target could be
anonamous1962@reddit
Put it this wsy isreal wants everyone on earth dead except for there very very special people put that in your pipes and smoke it
Ralfsalzano@reddit
Well it’s started
Chogo82@reddit
Why would Biden push this escalation?
Particular-Fact-7820@reddit
It's not an escalation. The Russians have been using North Korean & Iranian Missiles & Drones to strike deep into Ukraine for some time now. It's Ukraine's right to respond in kind.
Explorer4820@reddit
What makes you think that Biden is the guy in charge? This is pure UK+neocon brinksmanship, Austin and the Joint Chiefs told them not to do this. Putin gave a speech over a month ango and said what the response would be to any escalation.
Now we act surpraised?
Emotional-Rise5322@reddit
Because putin owns trump.
Usual-Scarcity-4910@reddit
All this will do is kill more kids in Ukraine population centers. And make Ukrainians even madder.
yoyopomo@reddit
Ukraine's been doing that for the last 8 years.
Usual-Scarcity-4910@reddit
Amd you would know that.
yoyopomo@reddit
Anyone following the situation back then would know.
Usual-Scarcity-4910@reddit
Sure sure
yoyopomo@reddit
Not sure why you’re so dismissive? These Donbas war documentaries have been out since 2015. Are you trying to convince me they weren’t bombing civilization centers in the east?
SalokinSekwah@reddit
Exactly how many civilians killed over those 8 years?
qwb3656@reddit
Was it Ukraine that started a war?
yoyopomo@reddit
Well technically both sides, the protestors, and the government, are "Ukraine". Did it start during Euromaiden or Crimea's annexation?
Jamesglancy@reddit
Ukraine is emotionally exhausted from the war. They cannot be "even madder".
Usual-Scarcity-4910@reddit
Oh, sure, they can.
Enzo-Unversed@reddit
I'm reading that it's been confirmed to have been launched at Dnipro.
00jester@reddit
Forgive my ignorance. I get the difference between a ballistic missile and am ICBM, in terms of distance. But, if they're putting a traditional payload on a ICBM vs say the Iranian blastic missiles they've already used, what's the difference? Speed, trajectory, accuracy?
ElectroMcGiddys@reddit
Imagine this thing gets shot down by an F16 lmao
LimpSmell6316@reddit
How big is the destruction from a 1.8t warhead?
Rdeis23@reddit
Considerably less than what comes from a pair of basic 2k dumb bombs of an airplane. City block or two, I’d guess?
Orbital_Vagabond@reddit
Launching ICBMs looks like launching nukes. Russia's really gonna push lines if they try this. Big FAFO.
No-Character-722@reddit
Russia is not going to launch a nuke against ukraine. Putin and Trump stand to become far more powerful if they negotiate an end to the nuclear standoff as well as an end to the Ukraine war.
FoundationOpening513@reddit
I bet you he does use it
VRTester_THX1138@reddit
The headline said that.
whwt@reddit
Russia would have to be really desperate to waste ICBMs using conventional warheads.
They want to intimidate the free world and it’s not working as well as the wish.
Pathetic.
FoundationOpening513@reddit
Free world?? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Alphadestrious@reddit
I got downvoted for looking like a tough guy saying I dare em to try it.
Exactly. They won't do shit
CornFedIABoy@reddit
Well, since the warheads have been looted and sold off the missiles are just sitting there. Might as well toss a ton of Semtex and a radar fuse on them and “dispose” of them kinetically, right?
avid-shtf@reddit
Here’s a quick summary on the RS-26:
“The RS-26 Rubezh (also known as the Avangard) is a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system that has been under development as part of Russia’s strategic missile forces. It is believed to be a lighter and more mobile variant of the RS-24 Yars ICBM, intended for both mobile and silo-based deployments. The RS-26 features advanced capabilities, including maneuverable warheads, potentially hypersonic glide vehicles, and improved evasion techniques to counter missile defense systems.
With an estimated range of 5,800–6,200 kilometers, the RS-26 falls near the boundary of medium-range and intercontinental-range ballistic missiles, but its classification and purpose remain strategic. It is designed to deliver multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), increasing its ability to penetrate defenses. The RS-26 has undergone multiple tests since the early 2010s, though its deployment status remains uncertain due to treaty implications and strategic developments.”
4/23/2024 from https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-x-31-rs-26-rubezh/
“RS-26 Rubezh at a Glance ORIGINATED FROM Russia POSSESSED BY Russia ALTERNATE NAMES SS-X-31, Frontier, Avangard, Yars-M, KY-26 CLASS Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) / Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM) [classification disputed] BASING Road-mobile LENGTH 12 m DIAMETER 1.8 m LAUNCH WEIGHT 36,000 kg PAYLOAD 800 kg WARHEAD Nuclear, single warhead or MIRV PROPULSION Solid propellant RANGE 2,000-5,800 km STATUS In development”
xmowx@reddit
I wouldn't be surprised if it falls on Voronezh or Belgorod.
KaleidoscopeThis5159@reddit
What's the minimum range for an ICBM to be a feasible option versus other delivery methods?
Key-Plan5228@reddit
More brinkmanship courtesy of actual Bond Villain Vladdie Putin.
“You all don’t know what’s in these, so we can start launching all the time and when we actually go nuclear you won’t know until we win!”
(The US has a far larger arsenal of working atomics, so it’ll be wild to see this play out)
-rwsr-xr-x@reddit
Weren't they already caught using thermobaric weapons a couple of years ago, and then denied it, but it was undeniably caught on amateur video?
Explorer4820@reddit
The U.S. fires thermobaric missiles from drones. Kind of our go-to round for hitting terrorists in buildings with the downside that it kills plenty of innocent civilians.
Both_Ad307@reddit
It is no secret that thermobaric weapons are being used in Ukraine. Even the Ukrainians are using them, specifically to destroy occupied structures.
ItzLuzzyBaby@reddit
Does Ukraine have anything that can intercept? Would be good data to see if anything works against maneuverable re-entry vehicles
CornFedIABoy@reddit
This is what Patriots were made for, isn’t it?
Explorer4820@reddit
Patriot missiles were never intended for use against MARVs. They would use up an entire battery of rounds on just one SS-26.
CKpsu5220@reddit
Embassies are back open. Seems like some misinformation.
Outside_Ad1669@reddit
1.8 ton is not even close to what some of the bombs that have already been used. The only thing this threat brings is that Russia will use an ICBM.
Presumably an ICBM with their avangard hypersonic delivery system, with a non nuclear conventional warhead. It is essentially a test of the system and a show of capability to be used as a deterrent.
The only thing new in this threat is the use of an ICBM. The size of the payload is something that has already been exchanged between the two throughout the conflict. Or at least has already been used by Russia on Ukrainian targets.
The type of missile ICBM and the payload is the cause for concern, because it doesn't have much value against military targets. It is essentially a weapon used to kill civilians in a strike. And very inaccurate, hence the concern of others closing their embassies and moving staff out of the population centers.
CornFedIABoy@reddit
Do you even need a hypersonic delivery system using ICBMs at that close a range? Wouldn’t the warheads be hypersonic or damn near already on descent?
Outside_Ad1669@reddit
Yea true, all ICBM re entries are already hypersonic. I think what avangard brings to the table according to the Russians. Is maybe additional speed and maneuverability
Typical reentry vehicles are a lob type that just separate from the missile and fall to their assigned target. The avangard brings a possibility of having a maneuverable payload that could be directed to a target and/or evade and counter defensive measures.
I guess if Putin decides to show it off to the world we will find out more about what it can or cannot do.
slavabien@reddit
So. A continuation of business as usual basically.
hustle4success@reddit
are our patriot batteries in Ukraine capable of intercepting these ICBM types before they reach the re-entry phase? curious if anyone has done the research.
or do we have any other anti air missle defense that is capable?
those non nuclear icbms are still going to cause a lot of destruction, not too dissimilar to cluster munitions
CornFedIABoy@reddit
If I remember my Tom Clancy right (was it Red Storm Rising?), it’s just a matter of a software tweak to open the target acquisition window to account for the higher speed warhead and back off the interceptor detonation range.
hustle4success@reddit
are our patriot batteries in Ukraine capable of intercepting these ICBM types before they reach the re-entry phase? curious if anyone has done the research.
or do we have any other anti air missle defense that is capable?
those non nuclear icbms are still going to cause a lot of destruction, not too dissimilar to cluster munitions
Careless-Age-4290@reddit
The patriots were able to take out the supersonic missile so they must punch above their intended uses. If that's our 80's-90's tech, we had to have gotten to icbm in 30-40 years even if it's not perfect
intothewoods76@reddit
Welp, long range missiles have already been introduced to the field of battle.
SmokedUp_Corgi@reddit
Sure let’s just bomb a territory we wanted to capture and not be able to use it for 30 years.
VRTester_THX1138@reddit
Do you know what "non-nuclear" means?
ohokayiguess00@reddit
Why would Russia launch an INTERCONTINENTAL ballistic missile against its neighbor?
Why are you dumb?
David_Parker@reddit
Might be a good time to look at the local Domino's next to the Pentagon's activity.....
IsItAnyWander@reddit
You all are salivating over this. So disgusting. US media has you by the balls with the war mongering.
Razafraz11@reddit
What’s your solution? Give them Ukraine and hope Russia doesn’t do it again?
Mr_E_Monkey@reddit
Funny, this war could end tomorrow. All the invader has to do is leave. Just stop invading.
IsItAnyWander@reddit
Not funny at all.
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
Found the MAGAt
IsItAnyWander@reddit
Lol
ProtoSpacefarer@reddit
The RS-26 was designed as a nuclear ICBM with MIRVs hence its low accuracy 50-250m. For conventional warheads, it goes back to the V1/V2 days of WW2 doctrine. Target a city or big target, because you dont know where it will land. If Putin does anything it will hopefully be this. Also the supersonic bombers are amassing near the Caucus region of Russia. Could be posturing because I would imagine they dont want to risk them being shot down by NATO GTA missiles.
theRealLevelZero@reddit
Sources?
twoscoopsofbacon@reddit
Russia has already used hypersonic and large ballistics, this.is more like them rolling out tanks from museums.
Also, this sort of hints that Russian nukes are poorly maintained/likely unusable if the are using the items. So good news, unless you are in kiev.
Papabear3339@reddit
Most suspect there arsenal is poorly maintained, but it doesn't matter due to sheer numbers.
Lets say they fired 100 nukes at Kiev, 30 made it through there air defence, and only 1 detonated.
Only one air detonation that powerful would be needed to turn the city to radioactive rubble... these are not baby nukes, these are big 10 to 15 megaton monsters.
The chain of events that follow such an event would most likely lead to WW3, a full scale nuclear exchange with Russia, several european and american cities being wiped, and Russia completely exterminated by thousands of nukes followed by full scale conventional bombardment from the combined forces of every country on earth.
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
Which is exactly why it won’t happen. Russia will cease to exist as a country, and Putin in particular will cease to exist as a collection of atoms in the very early stages. And Putin knows that very, very well. Vladimir Putin cares first and foremost about Vladimir Putin.
shyahone@reddit
Putin isnt a young and rising star, he is a sick old man, both physically and mentally. He knows he wont live forever, and legacy is nonexistent in a dictatorship, whoever takes his place will either change everything or erase the predecessor, much like he himself did. If he is evil enough, or just doesnt care, why not play the fiddle while rome burns, so to speak.
Ok_Buddy_9087@reddit
I get that being a concern. My premise is that, since he seems determined to maintain power until his final breath, he’s not going to do anything that would hasten that breath.
consciousaiguy@reddit
Despite the threats, Russia was never going to use nukes simply because Putin isn’t suicidal. It was just posturing. However, there is a lot of doubt about the reliability of Russia’s nuclear weapons. Attempting to use a nuke and it be a dud would be a massive embarrassment.
zll2244@reddit
this, when someone fires a warning shot all they are saying is “i really don’t want to face the consequences of shooting you”
Papabear3339@reddit
Most suspect there arsenal is poorly maintained, but it doesn't matter due to sheer numbers.
Lets say they fired 100 nukes at Kiev, 30 made it through there air defence, and only 1 detonated.
Only one air detonation that powerful would be needed to turn the city to radioactive rubble... these are not baby nukes, these are big 10 to 15 megaton monsters.
The chain of events that follow such an event would most likely lead to WW3, a full scale nuclear exchange with Russia, several european and american cities being wiped, and Russia completely exterminated by thousands of nukes followed by full scale conventional bombardment from the combined forces of every country on earth.
forkproof2500@reddit
Like this entire war, basically. Good news, unless you are Ukrainian.
twoscoopsofbacon@reddit
Or Russian.
GoreonmyGears@reddit
Well at least I'm getting to play STALKER 2 drop the real ones. It'll be good practice! A lot do the Ukrainian soldiers now actually say that the first STALKER help them with their tactics in battle!
ilikehouses@reddit
I think if we give Ukraine another 500m in munitions this’ll all just blow over
crevettexbenite@reddit
I am more worried they would fuck up and lunchs Nukes instead of normal payload...
IsItAnyWander@reddit
Hurr durr all Russians are dummies and mix up nukes and conventional payloads. Man you all are something else.
65CM@reddit
Terribly stupid decision by Russia from an intelligence standpoint. Much of icbm countermeasures are based on hypotheticals - the US and allies would be salivating over that intel….very surprised if Russia follows through- too much risk for small payoff
Badger_Joe@reddit
So they are wasting an expensive missile for a limited effect.
Sounds like a win for the good guys
Heffe3737@reddit
Seriously. Russia using up its nuclear delivery systems on conventional strikes because it’s used up all of its conventional missile stock? Cool.
mystinkingneovagina@reddit
Even better is the fact that our missiles are just old stock, so doesn’t even cost us anything
National-Ad-6982@reddit
I think Biden might've fumbled this one. He thought maybe he'd give the Ukraine a chance to get in a few good punches before Trump is sworn in, and either negotiate a deal or cut funding/support. However, Biden's call to allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles in Russia might get Kyiv leveled - if Ukraine is lucky.
irrision@reddit
Unlikely, they've been getting quite good at shooting down Russian missiles including hypersonic ones (8 out of 9 last night). Hitting a giant ballistic missile will be cake for systems that can but a hypersonic cruise missile.
forkproof2500@reddit
Any source for Ukraine shooting down hypersonic missiles (outside of UK propaganda if possible).
Ash_Tray420@reddit
All you post is Trump related articles, so this viewpoint isn’t surprising…but it is wrong. How many times has Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_risk_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine Scroll down and click “nuclear blackmail”, and that’s only counting some of them, not all. He’s not going to do anything, it’s mutual destruction for both, and he’s not dumb.
SumthingBrewing@reddit
Putin wants us to blame Biden. So it’s ok if Putin brings in 10,000 North Korean troops but god forbid we allow Ukraine to use similar weapons that Russia is already using?
LaSage@reddit
Putin is a cancer.
Traditional-Leader54@reddit
This needs a source.
Lithium321@reddit (OP)
avid-shtf below you has some good links.
avid-shtf@reddit
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42569
https://eutoday.net/russias-potential-rs-26-missile-strike/
https://www.timesnownews.com/world/europe/rs-26-rubezh-russia-planning-to-launch-new-intercontinental-missile-at-ukraine-article-115464489/amp
Important_Jaguar_392@reddit
Don’t tease me, tell me more!