So from my understanding. RCP 8.5 was the "worst-case scenario" proposed in 2014 at P*ris.
RCP 1.9 was the "aspirational goal" of the conference and that limited C02 emissions to below 1.5 by the end of the century. At this point we have been at 1.5 for more than a year but we aren't yet considered to have breached 1.5 because we haven't been at 1.5 for long enough yet. All signs point to us staying at 1.5 for the requisite period. As far as I'm aware.
RCP 4.5 was considered the intermediate option. With substantial but not stringent mitigation.
RCP 7 is the baseline scenario with no mitigation but also not increasing output.
RCP 8.5, again, was their worst case which involved increasing C02 output. One commenter mentions that this scenario involved predicting everyone going back to coal?
We are currently at 427ppm C02 which is below the predictions of RCP 8.5. As far as I can tell this ppm could fit from RCP 2.6 (next one after 1.9) up to RCP 7. There seems to be a split between those that think current estimates for C02 emissions match 4.5 and 7.
The big problem with this is that the RCPs take C02 in isolation and simply pretend that other GHGs don't exist. At least from what I can tell?
Also of note is that much like everything official, it did not even remotely account for positive feedback loops and various complex climate systems we're increasingly coming to understand have massive implications for climate collapse. As well as whatever other complications are still entirely unpredicted by us. Again, from what I can gather.
Now onto this graph
This graph details C02 equivalents (C02E) - which is a measure of C02 and other similar gasses which contribute to global warming in a similar way. These gasses, like methane, have different warming affects but also different degrees of longevity in the environment. So CH4 stays for only 5 years but has a more pronounced warming effect. This figure, C02E, accounts for all these discrepancies and essentially translates all these other gasses into their equivalent impact to C02 to give us some very useful data. This is why the graph is higher across the board even before 2014.
If my understanding is correct how did Paris account for other gasses? We've always known methane, especially, was a big contributor coming from cows and melting permafrost. How could they predict the associated level of warming from various degrees of C02 output without ever accounting for other greenhouse gasses? Did they literally just decide to predict what was happening with C02 and leave it at that?
According to this graph we are essentially heading for mid century warming by 2030, well in excess of the predictions of RCP8.5. RCP 8.5 has sea level rise at an average of 0.3 meters by 2050. Which is goodbye Holland. As well as all the other complications from dead insects and ocean life and wet bulb temps and natural disasters.
Again, am I right? I want to be able to back myself up when I inevitably get told that the methodology is flawed in some way or another.
Please correct anything that seems wrong, I know I'm late to the thread so any insight is appreciated.
From what I recall the projections included speculative carbon removal technology e.g. if CCS became feasible then 1.5 would be possible. But it's been a while since I've read about it and it's tricky to search so I could be misremembering.
It was mentioned here recently, but most of the controlling members of the IPCC have to ask their home countries for the exact wording of their climate reports.
Additionally, most IPCC scientist that get final say on projects are economist, not climate scientist. People who think 3.5C would be an optimal point because their calculations show that it would boost global GDP numbers. One of the dudes that feels that way won a god-damned nobel prize for it.
I dont mean to bash religion(in this context) but this is akin to the vatican mathematicians coming up with models to prove the earth is the center of the solar system.
Economists have a conclusion so its just a matter of making the model that fits (with regards to climate change)
This graph is incorrect. We reached 400 ppm for the first time in 2013. I am no climate denier, but as a scientist I cannot stand misinformation. This chart is an exaggeration. Not that we are in a good place. We are currently at 423ppm. Source: https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu
Many scientists have scaled back estimates to be more conservative because the worst case scenario estimates would likely be received as alarmist and thus dismissed by the masses.
We are coming to the end of the "fuck around" stage and about to enter the "find out" stage.
"High emissions scenario The RCP 8.5 scenario, also known as the high emissions scenario, depicts a future with few restrictions on emissions12. Emissions continue to increase rapidly through this century and only stabilize by 22501. In Canada, RCP 8.5 would result in an average temperature increase of 6.3°C by the end of the century1."https://climatedata.ca/interactive/emissions-scenarios-rcps/
Not necessarily. Desertification takes more than just increased temperatures. There's actually some rainfall models that show a significant increase in rain fall on the midwest at higher temperatures.
I'd trust those models as far as I can throw them. And I've physically worked on the supercomputers that run them. Me and no one else either can lift one of those racks.
Increased rainfall only combats desertification if it's dispersed throughout the year- something we're seeing more and more of lately is months or years of drought that hardens the soil followed by intense downpours that either bounce off or sweep away the topsoil.
Almost 40% of Canada is in the Arctic circle so an average 6.3C increase over all of Canada is going to still be a much lower average temperature than the continental US due to the fact that the Arctic is warming at a much faster pace.
We don't have to keep emitting to get to that point. Feedback loops are beginning or intensifying and the carbon stays in the atmosphere for a long time. Once forests get too hot and start dying they're all just fires waiting to happen and they don't need a spark from us.
i can't wait for the next IPCC report stating that we actually are fucked fucked. oh wait they probably won't ever do that. it'll just be more hopium 2100 2050 nonsense
Look at everything with "sub polar" in the type name. Add 6.3 C and most of it is no longer sub-polar.
The same thing will be happening in Russia.
From an ecological point of view this is the equivalents on a very very big rock hitting the earth. Most of the sub artic stuff will first die out before new vegetations types can move in.
Reminder that once we hit 600ppm, we're effectively analogous to a climate under which permanent ice at the poles is no longer sustainable. Essentially we'll have leaped from a icehouse climate to a cool-greenhouse and straight into a warm-greenhouse in under 200 years. I'd be astonished if that isn't the most abrupt form of climate change this planet has ever seen.
What's the data source? Your graph is showing that we are currently well over 500 pm, which is far above the reported current global trend value of 424 ppm C02, according to NOAA https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html
But they aren't equivalent in that methane only persists for about 5 yrs while CO2 takes thousands to cycle out. Any idea if the projections take those variances into account?
Yep, those considerations are universally agreed-upon, even by experts who disagree on other details. There are limitations with every model, but "we forgot to adjust for methane and other GHGs" won't be one of them.
This github data is from 5 years ago. Is it pulling from IPCC report AR5, or is it somehow preliminary data for AR6? I ask because working group 1 for AR6 was only released in 2021, so three years ago. The github data appears to be out of date.
I used that data because the wiki as a informative source of info continues to use is it as de facto and is continually updated on the wiki (media files) multiple updates.
Depends on your location. There are several planetary boundaries. Collapse isnt one event, its thousands of interconnected overlapping events and feedback loops of varying intensities and durations. It can always get worse. There is no deadline.
You'll probably see some middle eastern, Indian, and Pakistani cities needing to be abandoned real soon. Will they? Probably not, they'll run them into the ditch as the poor and those who can't afford the ever increasing AC demands due in heat dome events.
Some of these cities already reach temperatures of 50° Celsius or more at their peak. You imagine a city being survivable if 50° Celsius persist for a week or more? And temperatures overnight above 35° Celsius? And that goes without saying but what will happen to any outdoor wildlife in the area. They already suffer and have massive die offs of birds and other animals during such events. As those events get more common and longer, nothing will be able to survive outside, not plants nor animals, it'll become a wasteland.
Im a 16 year old in India rn and just discovered this sub. This summer it was around 50 degree celsius for about a week but we're well off so AC bills are not a problem. Im freaking out cause from my perspective the air quality etc are a lot better in western countries and y'all are worried. Guess i need to get rich as soon as possible and leave??????? This shit is alarming
Guess i need to get rich as soon as possible and leave???????
Mars is only a hopium option, never has been more than that. Even in movies they usually throw in something like fusion tech as deus ex machina to make living on Mars work.
Where you gonna move Siberia? Canada? Scandinavia? All those places are increasing opposed to immigration but maybe not if you are rich.
where i am rn has an AQI of around 400. Is there something wrong with countries like Netherlands/Switzerland I've heard they're hard to emigrate to but also really great places to live in
Yeah, get rich fast & leave. You don't have much time.
Unfortunately, the only way to get rich fast is by scamming. I will be downvoted for saying this but don't feel bad if that's what you need to do.
Most Americans that fall for get rich quick scams are the same type of tards that deny climate change. Willfully ignorant magical thinkers. They're the same people voted to end your existence in every election (including this recent one).
Morals stop mattering in life/death situations. Especially when it involves such irredeemable people that put you into an impossible situation that was easily avoidable.
Bruh that's a curveball. Idk how to get into scamming? It's not widespread in India at all either that's a stereotype 🗣️ Idk if you meant it that way. I was hoping shit wouldn't hit the fan till after 4-5 years so i'd just get a job abroad in a country that's not as doomed as mine.
You're right, getting a job abroad is still the most viable option but it's becoming harder. Many countries are now electing governments that want to restrict both legal and illegal immigration.
I do think you have at least 4-5 years before things become impossible.
If the job abroad doesn't work, maybe there's some semi-habitable zones near the Himalayas. Higher elevations that are cooler. A root cellar might also help a little bit.
My worry is mainly around global (and national in my own western country) food supply and food system collapse. The entire globe is about to be affected (next 5-10 years) by global food supply shortages on an unprecedented level leading to likely major famine in every country (including western nations). I'll be making sure to head home from uni this summer from longer than usual to get my parents on board with adapting our allotment (a plot of land where we can grow food) to be as resilient as possible to coming changes in the short term (with additional plans for the medium-long term) and to convince them to try and scale it up from allowing us to be self-sufficient on providing food for ourselves for 4-5 months of the year (which it does at the moment) to being self-sufficient for 10-12 months (or as close to this) as possible. Right now for the rest of the year outside of the 4-5 months we're self sufficient off of it we're maybe semi self-sufficient, so we're not starting from ground zero for those months at least.
My worry is mainly around global (and national in my own western country) food supply and food system collapse. The entire globe is about to be affected (next 5-10 years) by global food supply shortages on an unprecedented level leading to likely major famine in every country (including western nations). I'll be making sure to head home from uni this summer from longer than usual to get my parents on board with adapting our allotment (a plot of land where we can grow food) to be as resilient as possible to coming changes in the short term (with additional plans for the medium-long term) and to convince them to try and scale it up from allowing us to be self-sufficient on providing food for ourselves for 4-5 months of the year (which it does at the moment) to being self-sufficient for 10-12 months (or as close to this) as possible. Right now for the rest of the year outside of the 4-5 months we're self sufficient off of it we're maybe semi self-sufficient, so we're not starting from ground zero for those months at least.
It was about 50 for a week where i live. It was definitely the hottest it's ever been but not apocalyptic. Indians are probably a lot more accustomed to heat tho ig
Anywhere where it'll become uninhabitable due to floods or drought or constant super storms destroying everything so the insurance companies abandon you
So anywhere poor basically
Then when the AMOC collapses, the UK and Ireland are boned
New York is too important to the US economy to just abandon. A better place to watch is Miami. Lots of places on the Eastern and Gulf coasts now regularly flood with seawater during King high tides, even without a lot of rain during or preceding the tide.
More importantly than the actual water level going up is what it will do to Americans' primary investment/retirement vehicles: their home values. Long before the ocean knocks on your door and turns the aquifer salty, your home—the thing you pour years of labor into expecting to retain value for you to use later—will become worthless. Tens of millions of people will have to adapt to living as Venetians or restart life with no wealth, potentially in their 60s because they can't sell their homes.Trillions of dollars of wealth will be erased. But hey, doing anything about climate change for the past 30 years was just too expensive, amirite?!
Indonesia is moving its capitol, Jakarta, a city of millions of people, because it will be uninhabitable in ~40 years due to land sinking+sea level rise.
I have a hunch that it will be mainly the government officials, public servants and the wealthy upper- middle class who will be able to afford to move.
The rest millions of the poors in slums and working class who are too impoverished to migrate will probably be left to die.
god DAMN thats FUCKED UP!!!! I know in sweden theres a town that has to move every few years or so because the iron mines keep encroaching on the land and its not safe. I think its Kiruna? Its been a while since i learned about it in my swedish courses. But like, thats because of mining... not the land becoming inhospitable due to ..this.
In working around Mississippi Alabama Tennessee are.. The amount of abandoned /collapsed/ burnt buildings are astounding... Malls that are just storage unit places now
Well... on a planetary scale, it's already started. You could go back 100 years ago and observe many collapses: ecosystemic, geopolitical, irreversable extinctions, glacial melting, etc etc. Six of the nine planetary boundaries have already "tipped".
If you want a specific answer, you'll need a specific location or a specific planetary boundary?
That will cause AMOC collapse as well as northern hemisphere Jetstream and air current disruption going from stable/astable to fully chaotic.
Once this occurs every year will be a dice roll on a major staple-crop failure, and all that's needed is for one staple crop (e.g. rice, wheat, corn) to fail to start causing mass famine.
Eventually (10-20yr from now) all staple crops will fail, and this will cause disruption to labor in other food and power distribution jobs, and we will experience famine on a scale never before experience. Industrial processes such as Haber-Bosch currently support upwards of 7.5BIL of the current 8.5BIL population.
As nations self isolate and wars start to emerge, year by year on humanity will slowly spiral into an unceremoniously demise of collapsing under the weight of industry it can no longer mobilize and slowly starving out as the changing climate becomes too unstable for agriculture globally.
The oceans will turn anoxic, all life in the ocean will die, followed by all life on the surface in the order of birds, mammals, reptiles, plants, insects. Last time AMOC broke down it caused an ice age, but at that time C02ppm was somewhere abouts 200-250ppm (we live in what is considered the end of this ice age, and our nominal C02 ppm is this value). Currently we're at abouts 500 C02ppm and climbing, and the last time earth had that much C02 it was too warm for ice to form at either polar cap. So chances are we'll have what appears as a brief moment of cooling when AMOC breaks down, and then the heat is going to shoot up a lot.
So in summary:
Next 5 years, enjoy them.
2030-2040 - Crop and Supply failure onset, BoE
2040-2050 - Mass failure, famine, conflict, migration, AMOC comes to a stop
2050+ - Ocean anoxia, Agriculture+Petrol supply collapse, societal collapse, doenward spiral is locked in.
I expect to live well beyond 2060 (am a similar age to you). I just expect our livestyles to drastically change from what they are now. I don't just expect to live this long, I actively want to live this long. I know things are going to get shit, outside of my control, but I actively want to do my best to adapt, create change (where possible) and live as long as possible out of spite towards those who've created this god awful situation
I find it really hard to make a guess tbh. There are ways I can see the whole thing crashing down in a very short time. For example; the AMOC collapsing - could happen as soon as this decade. If it were to turn off in say 2028 I can't see how the global economy wouldn't collapse soon after.
Or... we could somehow limp on for another 30yrs, perhaps using aerosols to trigger global dimming.
If you accept Hansen et al's acceleration data, the curve get's much steeper much earlier, and I 'm thinking even Hansen's team has not factored in some of the most recent terrifying data, such as the recent observations showing that the Amazon rain forests are emitting more GHG than they are absorbing, or the more recent bad data around the AMOC.
I follow Leon Simons on Bluesky. He worked alongside Hansen in the most recent research about the impact of aerosol masking. Even he seems surprised by the rapid rate of heating.
I’ll take 27 more years. Both of my kids will be in their 30s and at least they would have had a chance to live a life… although it might not have been one worth living
There was a paper on this sub a few days ago that said an estimated 2 billion people will die of starvation (and other impacts) around 2 degrees Celsius of warming. With the exponential acceleration, and the fact we've already passed 1.5 - that will be about 3-4 years. We have 3-4 years left before billions are majorly impacted and dying. Thinking there are decades left to brace is delusional.
The impacts will scale and compound to the point that growing food is going to start getting very difficult before the end of this decade. Expect food to become the newest luxury item.
It's going to start running out by 2040. Save the last bullet.
Society, and social services and the whole governing and government thing 2 to 3 years slow drip...
This is an ongoing process there's no single catalyst for the beginning of the end.. For example...
Traffic stops in Nashville TN is down 91% in the last 2 years. And if you call the cops for anything but shots fired might not arrive to you for over 2 hours.
God was going to signal the end of days with trumpets or something yea? ... Maybe we miss heard.... Trumpvance
You'd be incorrect - the feedback loops aren't accounted for in IPCC reports because we're unable to measure them quantitatively at the moment. We have more than enough accessible fossil fuels to get us above 1000ppm of CO2 if we decide to drill and burn them.
The lack of feedback loops is a major criticism climate scientists have of the IPCC's methodology, but the government's involved dont want to include a range of complete guesses that may or may not cause people to lose faith in solving the problem. Also, once you start adding feedback loops which interact with each other, your uncertainty grows. The list of possible futures grows very long very quickly as you consider models which have certain sensitivities (unmeasured and unverifiable) assigned to different feedback loops.
In essence, the IPCC took the easy and less complicated path towards modeling because the IPCC is just meant to get the world's governments on the same page about the facts of the current situation, so they can develop policy. If there's too much uncertainty about possibilities, they're more likely to do nothing until we have data.
I'm tired of being told to "strap in" or "buckle up." What if I just wanna get ragdolled in the chaos and emerge as an unrecognizable, broken lump of gore? You think I want to survive and watch every day be worse than the day before? I've had four decades of that. Pulverize me already.
I'm actively preparing and wanting to survive and thrive as much as I can now. I'm in my 20s and I'm determined to do so out of spite towards those who've put us in this situation
Idk where the person you replied to is from, but it is much more difficult/expensive to leave America than most people would think. I have tried, I hate it here
the problem is that a lot of feedback loops aren’t modelled. The other issue with this graph is that the RCPs don’t really start diverging until the late 2020s-2030s. Mainly the difference in the RCP8.5 and the others is continued increasing emission of co2 in the late 21st century
now that he's getting paid to write for NYT he has sold out on the climate and pretends it's not that bad while he deludes himself with money and drugs.
He’ll write a new book about “agency” and “urgency”, then have several publicity appearances on CNN. Meanwhile, he’ll stick his little fingers in his ears and stomp his narcissistic little feet whenever someone dares question him.
Which I think is just stupid. All greenhouse gases contribute to global warming. I understand CO2 is the largest contributor, but I really don't understand why we wouldn't do CO2e for everything. I mean I get that it is likely because it would make it very clear things are significantly worse than anticipated, but I would just think it would get used a lot more at least in the scientific community.
The fact that we can actually measure such change in the atmosphere and temperatures in a space as small as a decade AND witness accelerating impacts in a matter of decades is actually, as far as earth's history goes, astonishing.
Previous past mass extinctions would have mostly happened so slowly, life wouldn't have noticed. Species would instead have slowly petered out generation after generation with a whimper.
I mean we always have been. This is just one part. What about the oceans dying and we lose 40% of oxygen that is created each year(before 2060, not to mention the offgasing of neurotoxins that will possibly kill all life but let’s just ignore this part for now) along with this co2, which by itself will make us need respirators to exist. And it will negatively hurt all of humans cognition, as if we need to stray further towards Idiocracy.
No. It's person's most meaningful impact which defines his/her legacy. Humans will forever be the species which sacrificed their future for the present. Hundreds of thousands of years of good, plentiful resources and a stable, healthy environment squandered so 0.1% of its population could live like demigods for less than 300 years. We're abhorrent and will soon be irrelevant. Unless another alien species miraculously discovers Earth before the Sun expands we won't even be forgotten—we never existed.
No the comparison is actually just invalid. The CO2 concentration can't be directly compared with CO2e, they are different things, and RCP most definitely is limited to just showing the CO2 values. The whole posting is just noise.
accept OP just straight up lying, CO2 concentrations are not this high, they are at 420 ppm at the moment from what i can find, this means where about on par/doing sliiightly better than worst case senario
Not only that, but the models don't include feedback loops which have already begun to kick in. So we're putting out more than than 8.5 rcp estimate and then there's going to be the larger and larger component coming from the Earth. The worst case scenario presented by Hanson, 8-10 degrees, is likely also conservative because of the feedback loops.
CO2e (equivalent), not CO2. So the graph includes CH4 and all the other warming gases represented as a single number equivalent to the effect if it was all CO2.
There are many reasons to be concerned about CO2 levels (and other climate/biosphere tipping points).
RCP8.5 won’t happen though. The model assumed we would run out of oil and gas, that renewables don’t exist, and that everything in the world in 2100 runs on coal and only coal. That won’t happen.
Still a lot to worry about, and a lot to organize about, and a lot to prepare for! Maybe methane clathrates will start evaporating, or other catastrophes. But RCP8.5 assumed all of humanity used coal for everything, and thankfully that is one dystopia we will actually avoid.
I can tell you don’t understand Javons paradox with respect to energy…it does in fact seem like the world will burn every piece of fossil fuel we can find
It may not happen due to poor assumptions regarding fossil fuels, but they likely underestimated natural methane sources and feedbacks, underestimated aerosol cooling contributions that are disappearing, and underestimated reductions in CO2 uptake by natural sources as everything gets hotter, which is what we are seeing now, so it's hard to say how close we could actually get to following that curve.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ViperG:
Submission statement:
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. It is known as worse possible scenario for CO2 emissions. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the IPCC got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
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Can someone much smarter then me please analyze and debunk this graph asap. Because I don't know how to accept the fact that we are all about to get fucked this hard. If this is factual, that would mean we are entering Into a runaway feedback loop right now at probably the least likely time for any actual change to happen. Given the new appointed secretary of energy is insane and wants to produce as much c02 as possible seemingly... Someone math this shit away please.
If you actually followed this with a non biased mind this was clear from miles away.
But most humans somehow always think life is a hollywood movie and things will turn out fine even if no one is actually doing anything to prevent the bad outcome.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ViperG:
Submission statement:
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. It is known as worse possible scenario for CO2 emissions. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the IPCC got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
Edit- Title typo its IPCC
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1gv417i/iccp_rcp_85_vs_actual_reality/lxywksn/
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the ICCP got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
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NoSadnessOnlyDoggo@reddit
Some notes/queries on RCPs
So from my understanding. RCP 8.5 was the "worst-case scenario" proposed in 2014 at P*ris.
RCP 1.9 was the "aspirational goal" of the conference and that limited C02 emissions to below 1.5 by the end of the century. At this point we have been at 1.5 for more than a year but we aren't yet considered to have breached 1.5 because we haven't been at 1.5 for long enough yet. All signs point to us staying at 1.5 for the requisite period. As far as I'm aware.
RCP 4.5 was considered the intermediate option. With substantial but not stringent mitigation.
RCP 7 is the baseline scenario with no mitigation but also not increasing output.
RCP 8.5, again, was their worst case which involved increasing C02 output. One commenter mentions that this scenario involved predicting everyone going back to coal?
We are currently at 427ppm C02 which is below the predictions of RCP 8.5. As far as I can tell this ppm could fit from RCP 2.6 (next one after 1.9) up to RCP 7. There seems to be a split between those that think current estimates for C02 emissions match 4.5 and 7.
The big problem with this is that the RCPs take C02 in isolation and simply pretend that other GHGs don't exist. At least from what I can tell? Also of note is that much like everything official, it did not even remotely account for positive feedback loops and various complex climate systems we're increasingly coming to understand have massive implications for climate collapse. As well as whatever other complications are still entirely unpredicted by us. Again, from what I can gather.
Now onto this graph
This graph details C02 equivalents (C02E) - which is a measure of C02 and other similar gasses which contribute to global warming in a similar way. These gasses, like methane, have different warming affects but also different degrees of longevity in the environment. So CH4 stays for only 5 years but has a more pronounced warming effect. This figure, C02E, accounts for all these discrepancies and essentially translates all these other gasses into their equivalent impact to C02 to give us some very useful data. This is why the graph is higher across the board even before 2014.
If my understanding is correct how did Paris account for other gasses? We've always known methane, especially, was a big contributor coming from cows and melting permafrost. How could they predict the associated level of warming from various degrees of C02 output without ever accounting for other greenhouse gasses? Did they literally just decide to predict what was happening with C02 and leave it at that?
According to this graph we are essentially heading for mid century warming by 2030, well in excess of the predictions of RCP8.5. RCP 8.5 has sea level rise at an average of 0.3 meters by 2050. Which is goodbye Holland. As well as all the other complications from dead insects and ocean life and wet bulb temps and natural disasters.
Again, am I right? I want to be able to back myself up when I inevitably get told that the methodology is flawed in some way or another.
Please correct anything that seems wrong, I know I'm late to the thread so any insight is appreciated.
MellowTigger@reddit
I don't understand. If actual data has been higher for many decades, then how/when did the estimate even get created?
ViperG@reddit (OP)
That is a damn good question sir, id also like an answer.
False-Difference4010@reddit
This graph seems to be labeled as "CO2 equivalent", but I think other models are based on CO2 concentration (ppm).
We have to see what are the "equivalent" added to this graph
kingfofthepoors@reddit
includes methane and other green house gases
PlagueOfAges@reddit
From what I recall the projections included speculative carbon removal technology e.g. if CCS became feasible then 1.5 would be possible. But it's been a while since I've read about it and it's tricky to search so I could be misremembering.
AgitatorsAnonymous@reddit
It was mentioned here recently, but most of the controlling members of the IPCC have to ask their home countries for the exact wording of their climate reports.
Additionally, most IPCC scientist that get final say on projects are economist, not climate scientist. People who think 3.5C would be an optimal point because their calculations show that it would boost global GDP numbers. One of the dudes that feels that way won a god-damned nobel prize for it.
Glodraph@reddit
So if they are economists....they are not IPCC scientists..hell they are not even scientists at all.
cheerfulKing@reddit
I dont mean to bash religion(in this context) but this is akin to the vatican mathematicians coming up with models to prove the earth is the center of the solar system.
Economists have a conclusion so its just a matter of making the model that fits (with regards to climate change)
darkingz@reddit
The GDP line must go up. Who cares about the heat line? If we haven’t made enough money, there’d be no environment to save.
jsc1429@reddit
First day here?
sclerenchyma2020@reddit
This graph is incorrect. We reached 400 ppm for the first time in 2013. I am no climate denier, but as a scientist I cannot stand misinformation. This chart is an exaggeration. Not that we are in a good place. We are currently at 423ppm. Source: https://keelingcurve.ucsd.edu
PotatoDrives@reddit
Many scientists have scaled back estimates to be more conservative because the worst case scenario estimates would likely be received as alarmist and thus dismissed by the masses.
We are coming to the end of the "fuck around" stage and about to enter the "find out" stage.
neo_nl_guy@reddit
"High emissions scenario The RCP 8.5 scenario, also known as the high emissions scenario, depicts a future with few restrictions on emissions12. Emissions continue to increase rapidly through this century and only stabilize by 22501. In Canada, RCP 8.5 would result in an average temperature increase of 6.3°C by the end of the century1." https://climatedata.ca/interactive/emissions-scenarios-rcps/
ViperG@reddit (OP)
Depends on if we can get our act together and curb emissions. So yeah sounds about right much worse
kingfofthepoors@reddit
It's too late, it was too late 30 years ago
fitbootyqueenfan2017@reddit
curb our emissions and also return a majority of our farms back to forests/natural systems which takes decades to do lol
DirkRockwell@reddit
Don’t worry, we won’t.
AgitatorsAnonymous@reddit
Yep.
They'd also have a nice source of sand nearby, in that most of the US Midwest would undergo pretty speedy desertification in that scenario.
the_friendly_dildo@reddit
Not necessarily. Desertification takes more than just increased temperatures. There's actually some rainfall models that show a significant increase in rain fall on the midwest at higher temperatures.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
I'd trust those models as far as I can throw them. And I've physically worked on the supercomputers that run them. Me and no one else either can lift one of those racks.
AtrociousMeandering@reddit
Increased rainfall only combats desertification if it's dispersed throughout the year- something we're seeing more and more of lately is months or years of drought that hardens the soil followed by intense downpours that either bounce off or sweep away the topsoil.
the_friendly_dildo@reddit
That depends a whole lot on what areas you are talking about. That certainly isn't broadly true of the entire midwest region.
PlausiblyCoincident@reddit
Almost 40% of Canada is in the Arctic circle so an average 6.3C increase over all of Canada is going to still be a much lower average temperature than the continental US due to the fact that the Arctic is warming at a much faster pace.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
it would be more like 12-20°c increase in canada
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Part of the problem with our rose colored glasses is our worst case scenario isn't actually worst case.
BrightCandle@reddit
It will never get to its true potential of 8-10C by 2100, we'll all be dead long before then along with most of our emissions.
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
We don't have to keep emitting to get to that point. Feedback loops are beginning or intensifying and the carbon stays in the atmosphere for a long time. Once forests get too hot and start dying they're all just fires waiting to happen and they don't need a spark from us.
fitbootyqueenfan2017@reddit
i can't wait for the next IPCC report stating that we actually are fucked fucked. oh wait they probably won't ever do that. it'll just be more hopium 2100 2050 nonsense
neo_nl_guy@reddit
responding to myself
Have a look at the map https://atlas.gc.ca/lcct/en/index.html The Atlas of Canada - Canada’s Land Cover Interactive Map
Look at everything with "sub polar" in the type name. Add 6.3 C and most of it is no longer sub-polar.
The same thing will be happening in Russia.
From an ecological point of view this is the equivalents on a very very big rock hitting the earth. Most of the sub artic stuff will first die out before new vegetations types can move in.
DirewaysParnuStCroix@reddit
Reminder that once we hit 600ppm, we're effectively analogous to a climate under which permanent ice at the poles is no longer sustainable. Essentially we'll have leaped from a icehouse climate to a cool-greenhouse and straight into a warm-greenhouse in under 200 years. I'd be astonished if that isn't the most abrupt form of climate change this planet has ever seen.
kingfofthepoors@reddit
2036 or sooner
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
400ppm is no greenland ice cap and weve already passed that.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Not to mention the thermal energy required to melt the Greenland ice cap is already in the ocean.
SavingsDimensions74@reddit
Yay us!!!! Quite an achievement
SnickersII@reddit
What's the data source? Your graph is showing that we are currently well over 500 pm, which is far above the reported current global trend value of 424 ppm C02, according to NOAA https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/gl_trend.html
Pastiche-2473@reddit
424 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, but if you include methane and other trace-but-more-potent GHGs, we’re in the 500 ppm CO2e (CO2 equivalent) range.
Electrical_Print_798@reddit
But they aren't equivalent in that methane only persists for about 5 yrs while CO2 takes thousands to cycle out. Any idea if the projections take those variances into account?
Pastiche-2473@reddit
Yep, those considerations are universally agreed-upon, even by experts who disagree on other details. There are limitations with every model, but "we forgot to adjust for methane and other GHGs" won't be one of them.
SnickersII@reddit
OK, thanks for clarifying. Still interested in the data source from OP.
ViperG@reddit (OP)
Data sources were https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html and https://github.com/benmsanderson/matlab_pulse
PlausiblyCoincident@reddit
This github data is from 5 years ago. Is it pulling from IPCC report AR5, or is it somehow preliminary data for AR6? I ask because working group 1 for AR6 was only released in 2021, so three years ago. The github data appears to be out of date.
ViperG@reddit (OP)
I used that data because the wiki as a informative source of info continues to use is it as de facto and is continually updated on the wiki (media files) multiple updates.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway
I found it interesting people still contribute and update the wiki with outdated and incorrect information.
SnickersII@reddit
Thanks, this is helpful!
Playongo@reddit
Elliot Jacobson estimates about 535 to 540 PPM CO2e currently. https://climatecasino.net/2024/08/the-long-and-winding-road-to-co2e/
Bitter-Platypus-1234@reddit
It shows us a bit above 400, nowhere near 500...
SavingsDimensions74@reddit
equivalent
Glodraph@reddit
It's CO2 equivalent, which includes methan, nitric oxide and other ghgs in the calculation, so we end up with over 500ppm equivalent.
ericvulgaris@reddit
CO2 equivalent I think. So adding in methane et al.
I too wanna source from OP but I reckon that's the difference youre seeing.
forestapee@reddit
Notice how it starts to take off quicker between 2040-2050 as the feedback loops take effect.
We are at tue 2040 point now.
Strap in homies
salamipope@reddit
how much time do you anticipate we have left?
2everland@reddit
Depends on your location. There are several planetary boundaries. Collapse isnt one event, its thousands of interconnected overlapping events and feedback loops of varying intensities and durations. It can always get worse. There is no deadline.
salamipope@reddit
True, i guess i mean when will it start first? Cuz after that its just gonna spreaaaad like cream cheese
kimlovescc@reddit
It's already in progress, we just don't know it yet.
salamipope@reddit
Im talking about when the first major city/area is abandoned by people by reason of climate change
mooky1977@reddit
You'll probably see some middle eastern, Indian, and Pakistani cities needing to be abandoned real soon. Will they? Probably not, they'll run them into the ditch as the poor and those who can't afford the ever increasing AC demands due in heat dome events.
Some of these cities already reach temperatures of 50° Celsius or more at their peak. You imagine a city being survivable if 50° Celsius persist for a week or more? And temperatures overnight above 35° Celsius? And that goes without saying but what will happen to any outdoor wildlife in the area. They already suffer and have massive die offs of birds and other animals during such events. As those events get more common and longer, nothing will be able to survive outside, not plants nor animals, it'll become a wasteland.
Ok_Possible3427@reddit
Im a 16 year old in India rn and just discovered this sub. This summer it was around 50 degree celsius for about a week but we're well off so AC bills are not a problem. Im freaking out cause from my perspective the air quality etc are a lot better in western countries and y'all are worried. Guess i need to get rich as soon as possible and leave??????? This shit is alarming
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Mars is only a hopium option, never has been more than that. Even in movies they usually throw in something like fusion tech as deus ex machina to make living on Mars work.
Where you gonna move Siberia? Canada? Scandinavia? All those places are increasing opposed to immigration but maybe not if you are rich.
Ok_Possible3427@reddit
where i am rn has an AQI of around 400. Is there something wrong with countries like Netherlands/Switzerland I've heard they're hard to emigrate to but also really great places to live in
TieVisible3422@reddit
Yeah, get rich fast & leave. You don't have much time.
Unfortunately, the only way to get rich fast is by scamming. I will be downvoted for saying this but don't feel bad if that's what you need to do.
Most Americans that fall for get rich quick scams are the same type of tards that deny climate change. Willfully ignorant magical thinkers. They're the same people voted to end your existence in every election (including this recent one).
Morals stop mattering in life/death situations. Especially when it involves such irredeemable people that put you into an impossible situation that was easily avoidable.
Ok_Possible3427@reddit
Bruh that's a curveball. Idk how to get into scamming? It's not widespread in India at all either that's a stereotype 🗣️ Idk if you meant it that way. I was hoping shit wouldn't hit the fan till after 4-5 years so i'd just get a job abroad in a country that's not as doomed as mine.
TieVisible3422@reddit
You're right, getting a job abroad is still the most viable option but it's becoming harder. Many countries are now electing governments that want to restrict both legal and illegal immigration.
I do think you have at least 4-5 years before things become impossible.
If the job abroad doesn't work, maybe there's some semi-habitable zones near the Himalayas. Higher elevations that are cooler. A root cellar might also help a little bit.
KnowledgeableNip@reddit
Have a backup plan if the power fails and the AC stops working.
Expert_Tea_5484@reddit
My worry is mainly around global (and national in my own western country) food supply and food system collapse. The entire globe is about to be affected (next 5-10 years) by global food supply shortages on an unprecedented level leading to likely major famine in every country (including western nations). I'll be making sure to head home from uni this summer from longer than usual to get my parents on board with adapting our allotment (a plot of land where we can grow food) to be as resilient as possible to coming changes in the short term (with additional plans for the medium-long term) and to convince them to try and scale it up from allowing us to be self-sufficient on providing food for ourselves for 4-5 months of the year (which it does at the moment) to being self-sufficient for 10-12 months (or as close to this) as possible. Right now for the rest of the year outside of the 4-5 months we're self sufficient off of it we're maybe semi self-sufficient, so we're not starting from ground zero for those months at least.
Expert_Tea_5484@reddit
My worry is mainly around global (and national in my own western country) food supply and food system collapse. The entire globe is about to be affected (next 5-10 years) by global food supply shortages on an unprecedented level leading to likely major famine in every country (including western nations). I'll be making sure to head home from uni this summer from longer than usual to get my parents on board with adapting our allotment (a plot of land where we can grow food) to be as resilient as possible to coming changes in the short term (with additional plans for the medium-long term) and to convince them to try and scale it up from allowing us to be self-sufficient on providing food for ourselves for 4-5 months of the year (which it does at the moment) to being self-sufficient for 10-12 months (or as close to this) as possible. Right now for the rest of the year outside of the 4-5 months we're self sufficient off of it we're maybe semi self-sufficient, so we're not starting from ground zero for those months at least.
AlxCds@reddit
The people on this sub are worried. The west is not.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
Bangladesh IMO is struggling with this right now, but in this case it's nearly the entire country that needs to move or ...
thehomeyskater@reddit
> Can you imagine a city being survivable if 50° Celsius persist for a week or more? And temperatures overnight above 35° Celsius?
is that even possible.
Ok_Possible3427@reddit
It was about 50 for a week where i live. It was definitely the hottest it's ever been but not apocalyptic. Indians are probably a lot more accustomed to heat tho ig
mooky1977@reddit
We'll find out soon enough. But probably not.
Instant_noodlesss@reddit
With electricity and people living underground, maybe.
SpongederpSquarefap@reddit
Anywhere where it'll become uninhabitable due to floods or drought or constant super storms destroying everything so the insurance companies abandon you
So anywhere poor basically
Then when the AMOC collapses, the UK and Ireland are boned
ttystikk@reddit
Jakarta, Indonesia is already being slowly abandoned.
Kiribati is also bringing to disappear, as are other small Pacific Island nations.
The Arctic Blue Ocean Event is imminent in the next few years.
Unless you're looking for an engraved invitation on your own silver platter, the party has already started.
Sertalin@reddit
For this reason I am watching New York very closely now...
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
New York is too important to the US economy to just abandon. A better place to watch is Miami. Lots of places on the Eastern and Gulf coasts now regularly flood with seawater during King high tides, even without a lot of rain during or preceding the tide.
More importantly than the actual water level going up is what it will do to Americans' primary investment/retirement vehicles: their home values. Long before the ocean knocks on your door and turns the aquifer salty, your home—the thing you pour years of labor into expecting to retain value for you to use later—will become worthless. Tens of millions of people will have to adapt to living as Venetians or restart life with no wealth, potentially in their 60s because they can't sell their homes. Trillions of dollars of wealth will be erased. But hey, doing anything about climate change for the past 30 years was just too expensive, amirite?!
KrustyKrab_Pizza@reddit
Indonesia is moving its capitol, Jakarta, a city of millions of people, because it will be uninhabitable in ~40 years due to land sinking+sea level rise.
Xamzarqan@reddit
I have a hunch that it will be mainly the government officials, public servants and the wealthy upper- middle class who will be able to afford to move.
The rest millions of the poors in slums and working class who are too impoverished to migrate will probably be left to die.
salamipope@reddit
god DAMN thats FUCKED UP!!!! I know in sweden theres a town that has to move every few years or so because the iron mines keep encroaching on the land and its not safe. I think its Kiruna? Its been a while since i learned about it in my swedish courses. But like, thats because of mining... not the land becoming inhospitable due to ..this.
weyouusme@reddit
In working around Mississippi Alabama Tennessee are.. The amount of abandoned /collapsed/ burnt buildings are astounding... Malls that are just storage unit places now
Gygax_the_Goat@reddit
Started three years ago where i used to live..
2everland@reddit
Well... on a planetary scale, it's already started. You could go back 100 years ago and observe many collapses: ecosystemic, geopolitical, irreversable extinctions, glacial melting, etc etc. Six of the nine planetary boundaries have already "tipped".
If you want a specific answer, you'll need a specific location or a specific planetary boundary?
xorwinx@reddit
Ireland, Santiago (Chile), Buffalo (NY), Natal (Brazil).
Barnacle_B0b@reddit
About 5 years tops.
After that window we're likely to experience BoE.
That will cause AMOC collapse as well as northern hemisphere Jetstream and air current disruption going from stable/astable to fully chaotic.
Once this occurs every year will be a dice roll on a major staple-crop failure, and all that's needed is for one staple crop (e.g. rice, wheat, corn) to fail to start causing mass famine.
Eventually (10-20yr from now) all staple crops will fail, and this will cause disruption to labor in other food and power distribution jobs, and we will experience famine on a scale never before experience. Industrial processes such as Haber-Bosch currently support upwards of 7.5BIL of the current 8.5BIL population.
As nations self isolate and wars start to emerge, year by year on humanity will slowly spiral into an unceremoniously demise of collapsing under the weight of industry it can no longer mobilize and slowly starving out as the changing climate becomes too unstable for agriculture globally.
The oceans will turn anoxic, all life in the ocean will die, followed by all life on the surface in the order of birds, mammals, reptiles, plants, insects. Last time AMOC broke down it caused an ice age, but at that time C02ppm was somewhere abouts 200-250ppm (we live in what is considered the end of this ice age, and our nominal C02 ppm is this value). Currently we're at abouts 500 C02ppm and climbing, and the last time earth had that much C02 it was too warm for ice to form at either polar cap. So chances are we'll have what appears as a brief moment of cooling when AMOC breaks down, and then the heat is going to shoot up a lot.
So in summary:
Next 5 years, enjoy them.
2030-2040 - Crop and Supply failure onset, BoE 2040-2050 - Mass failure, famine, conflict, migration, AMOC comes to a stop 2050+ - Ocean anoxia, Agriculture+Petrol supply collapse, societal collapse, doenward spiral is locked in.
ukluxx@reddit
I agree with this timeline, I would add that a partial collapse/extreme martial law due to wars and social crisis could start in the 30s
salamipope@reddit
Damn! itll get anoxic that soon? Fuck, dude.
PaPerm24@reddit
15-30 years
salamipope@reddit
thats more than i thought
AgitatorsAnonymous@reddit
It's a fairly safe bet.
15 is probably on the pessimistic end and 30 on the optimistic end. I'm not expecting to make to 60 and I am in my middle 30s now.
IamInfuser@reddit
I'm the same age and literally do not know why I'm saving for retirement.
PaPerm24@reddit
Im 23 and dont expect to live last 2060. So 37 more years MAX. i actually estimate 2050, when im 40. 27 more years
Expert_Tea_5484@reddit
I expect to live well beyond 2060 (am a similar age to you). I just expect our livestyles to drastically change from what they are now. I don't just expect to live this long, I actively want to live this long. I know things are going to get shit, outside of my control, but I actively want to do my best to adapt, create change (where possible) and live as long as possible out of spite towards those who've created this god awful situation
Glacecakes@reddit
I don’t expect to live to 2040 so you’re better off than I am LOL
salamipope@reddit
Ayyyy im 24! Death buddies!
weyouusme@reddit
Hahahahaha this fucking guy thinks we might have 30 years
s0cks_nz@reddit
I find it really hard to make a guess tbh. There are ways I can see the whole thing crashing down in a very short time. For example; the AMOC collapsing - could happen as soon as this decade. If it were to turn off in say 2028 I can't see how the global economy wouldn't collapse soon after.
Or... we could somehow limp on for another 30yrs, perhaps using aerosols to trigger global dimming.
reddolfo@reddit
If you accept Hansen et al's acceleration data, the curve get's much steeper much earlier, and I 'm thinking even Hansen's team has not factored in some of the most recent terrifying data, such as the recent observations showing that the Amazon rain forests are emitting more GHG than they are absorbing, or the more recent bad data around the AMOC.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jul/14/amazon-rainforest-now-emitting-more-co2-than-it-absorbs
SoFlaBarbie@reddit
I follow Leon Simons on Bluesky. He worked alongside Hansen in the most recent research about the impact of aerosol masking. Even he seems surprised by the rapid rate of heating.
jsc1429@reddit
I’ll take 27 more years. Both of my kids will be in their 30s and at least they would have had a chance to live a life… although it might not have been one worth living
michaltee@reddit
Hey same here!!
lifelovers@reddit
Same. I assumed five. 🤞
fleeingcats@reddit
This is pretty optimistic, but I guess it depends on what we mean by "having time left".
PaPerm24@reddit
Before we starve
fleeingcats@reddit
Food can be scarce and expensive and billions can starve while billions of others do "ok" in the dwindling hellscape.
PaPerm24@reddit
For a few decades yea. I think the remaining billions will start starving around 2050-2060
chaosisblond@reddit
There was a paper on this sub a few days ago that said an estimated 2 billion people will die of starvation (and other impacts) around 2 degrees Celsius of warming. With the exponential acceleration, and the fact we've already passed 1.5 - that will be about 3-4 years. We have 3-4 years left before billions are majorly impacted and dying. Thinking there are decades left to brace is delusional.
fleeingcats@reddit
That is wildly optimistic, but I guess it depends on what we mean by "having time left".
Economic collapse will probably come before complete famine and ecocide.
Sumnerr@reddit
Luckily, today is already Tuesday, so about seven days.
Gygax_the_Goat@reddit
Venus by Thursday..
😉
Z3r0sama2017@reddit
Look! Look! FishMahBoi is back!!
salamipope@reddit
Lmao thanks.
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
The impacts will scale and compound to the point that growing food is going to start getting very difficult before the end of this decade. Expect food to become the newest luxury item.
It's going to start running out by 2040. Save the last bullet.
weyouusme@reddit
Society, and social services and the whole governing and government thing 2 to 3 years slow drip...
This is an ongoing process there's no single catalyst for the beginning of the end.. For example...
Traffic stops in Nashville TN is down 91% in the last 2 years. And if you call the cops for anything but shots fired might not arrive to you for over 2 hours.
God was going to signal the end of days with trumpets or something yea? ... Maybe we miss heard.... Trumpvance
InvertedDinoSpore@reddit
I don't think we actually have enough carbon fuel to emit to get us to rcp 8.5 so it would have to be feedback loops
PhysiksBoi@reddit
You'd be incorrect - the feedback loops aren't accounted for in IPCC reports because we're unable to measure them quantitatively at the moment. We have more than enough accessible fossil fuels to get us above 1000ppm of CO2 if we decide to drill and burn them.
The lack of feedback loops is a major criticism climate scientists have of the IPCC's methodology, but the government's involved dont want to include a range of complete guesses that may or may not cause people to lose faith in solving the problem. Also, once you start adding feedback loops which interact with each other, your uncertainty grows. The list of possible futures grows very long very quickly as you consider models which have certain sensitivities (unmeasured and unverifiable) assigned to different feedback loops.
In essence, the IPCC took the easy and less complicated path towards modeling because the IPCC is just meant to get the world's governments on the same page about the facts of the current situation, so they can develop policy. If there's too much uncertainty about possibilities, they're more likely to do nothing until we have data.
littlebitsofspider@reddit
I'm tired of being told to "strap in" or "buckle up." What if I just wanna get ragdolled in the chaos and emerge as an unrecognizable, broken lump of gore? You think I want to survive and watch every day be worse than the day before? I've had four decades of that. Pulverize me already.
Expert_Tea_5484@reddit
I'm actively preparing and wanting to survive and thrive as much as I can now. I'm in my 20s and I'm determined to do so out of spite towards those who've put us in this situation
reddolfo@reddit
Move to Yemen or Somalia, two places that are functionally uninhabitable right now.
Hungry-Main-3622@reddit
Idk where the person you replied to is from, but it is much more difficult/expensive to leave America than most people would think. I have tried, I hate it here
RR321@reddit
Isn't it a normal exponential and so it takes off wherever we zoom?
DestroyTheMatrix_3@reddit
Let the hunger games begin!
TrickyProfit1369@reddit
strap on homies
RadianMay@reddit
the problem is that a lot of feedback loops aren’t modelled. The other issue with this graph is that the RCPs don’t really start diverging until the late 2020s-2030s. Mainly the difference in the RCP8.5 and the others is continued increasing emission of co2 in the late 21st century
Key_Maintenance_4660@reddit
Someone call David Wallace-Wells
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
DAVID SELLOUT WELLS
cbsauder@reddit
?
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
now that he's getting paid to write for NYT he has sold out on the climate and pretends it's not that bad while he deludes himself with money and drugs.
cbsauder@reddit
Aaaah gotcha. I looked him up and was a bit surprised he's an NYT writer now. Makes sense.
Also it's not like he can "un write" the book.
thr0wnb0ne@reddit
i also wanna see what hopium michael mann cooks up in response to this
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
Who’s paying Michael Mann?!!
HumanityHasFailedUs@reddit
He’ll write a new book about “agency” and “urgency”, then have several publicity appearances on CNN. Meanwhile, he’ll stick his little fingers in his ears and stomp his narcissistic little feet whenever someone dares question him.
Hells88@reddit
This can’t be right. We are at 421 now. This graph says 550. We are actually following the red line
ViperG@reddit (OP)
Some graphs or data sources are CO2, others are CO2eq
Deguilded@reddit
Is RCP 8.5 a CO2 equivalent number?
What's the blue line if you take out "equivalent"?
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
IPCC currently ignores methane entirely and nitrous afaik
kylerae@reddit
Which I think is just stupid. All greenhouse gases contribute to global warming. I understand CO2 is the largest contributor, but I really don't understand why we wouldn't do CO2e for everything. I mean I get that it is likely because it would make it very clear things are significantly worse than anticipated, but I would just think it would get used a lot more at least in the scientific community.
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
it's by design IMO. IPCC and COP are just owned by oil now like everything else
BlackDS@reddit
uh oh spaghettios
InvertedDinoSpore@reddit
The fact that we can actually measure such change in the atmosphere and temperatures in a space as small as a decade AND witness accelerating impacts in a matter of decades is actually, as far as earth's history goes, astonishing.
Previous past mass extinctions would have mostly happened so slowly, life wouldn't have noticed. Species would instead have slowly petered out generation after generation with a whimper.
What were living through now is an explosion.
Z3r0sama2017@reddit
This is what winning looks like!
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
It really is amazing data that keeps me coming back here, just a flood of apocalypse data confirmations
Repulsive-Theory-477@reddit
You don’t need to say Actual reality
thr0wnb0ne@reddit
so things are worse than the worst case scenario
ha, we're in danger
lilith_-_-@reddit
I mean we always have been. This is just one part. What about the oceans dying and we lose 40% of oxygen that is created each year(before 2060, not to mention the offgasing of neurotoxins that will possibly kill all life but let’s just ignore this part for now) along with this co2, which by itself will make us need respirators to exist. And it will negatively hurt all of humans cognition, as if we need to stray further towards Idiocracy.
Humanity had a good run(entirely debatable)
Uhh_JustADude@reddit
No. It's person's most meaningful impact which defines his/her legacy. Humans will forever be the species which sacrificed their future for the present. Hundreds of thousands of years of good, plentiful resources and a stable, healthy environment squandered so 0.1% of its population could live like demigods for less than 300 years. We're abhorrent and will soon be irrelevant. Unless another alien species miraculously discovers Earth before the Sun expands we won't even be forgotten—we never existed.
thr0wnb0ne@reddit
yeah but now we've got this lovely chart to actually prove it
half of humanity had a good run, the other half, not so good
audioen@reddit
No the comparison is actually just invalid. The CO2 concentration can't be directly compared with CO2e, they are different things, and RCP most definitely is limited to just showing the CO2 values. The whole posting is just noise.
Storm_theotherkind@reddit
accept OP just straight up lying, CO2 concentrations are not this high, they are at 420 ppm at the moment from what i can find, this means where about on par/doing sliiightly better than worst case senario
scgeod@reddit
Not only that, but the models don't include feedback loops which have already begun to kick in. So we're putting out more than than 8.5 rcp estimate and then there's going to be the larger and larger component coming from the Earth. The worst case scenario presented by Hanson, 8-10 degrees, is likely also conservative because of the feedback loops.
AlchemyStudio@reddit
it's a good curve.
first of all seems linear.
then, we will cross the RCP 8.5 scenario in 20250 and then we will be under the RCP 8.5 predictions.
not bad! /s
McQuoll@reddit
"orders of magnitude"? How?
Storm_theotherkind@reddit
where did you get the figure that we are at 525 ish ppm? every figure i can find puts us at around 420
jbond23@reddit
CO2e (equivalent), not CO2. So the graph includes CH4 and all the other warming gases represented as a single number equivalent to the effect if it was all CO2.
Storm_theotherkind@reddit
thanks!
TheInternetBanana@reddit
Correct me if I'm wrong but we're currently at 422 ppm. Way below what this graph is showing.
source: https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2
Ok_Act_5321@reddit
it includes methane and other greenhouse gases.
Quiet_Wars@reddit
Reddit ads being ironic
Pastiche-2473@reddit
There are many reasons to be concerned about CO2 levels (and other climate/biosphere tipping points). RCP8.5 won’t happen though. The model assumed we would run out of oil and gas, that renewables don’t exist, and that everything in the world in 2100 runs on coal and only coal. That won’t happen. Still a lot to worry about, and a lot to organize about, and a lot to prepare for! Maybe methane clathrates will start evaporating, or other catastrophes. But RCP8.5 assumed all of humanity used coal for everything, and thankfully that is one dystopia we will actually avoid.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544217314597
bipolarearthovershot@reddit
I can tell you don’t understand Javons paradox with respect to energy…it does in fact seem like the world will burn every piece of fossil fuel we can find
PlausiblyCoincident@reddit
It may not happen due to poor assumptions regarding fossil fuels, but they likely underestimated natural methane sources and feedbacks, underestimated aerosol cooling contributions that are disappearing, and underestimated reductions in CO2 uptake by natural sources as everything gets hotter, which is what we are seeing now, so it's hard to say how close we could actually get to following that curve.
Rygar_Music@reddit
This is going to be fun!! I’m sure everyone will cooperate.
Iamlabaguette@reddit
robotjyanai@reddit
That smiley face with PPM 800 is messing with the me
Iamlabaguette@reddit
It should be the dog of the this is fine meme
robotjyanai@reddit
For real!
with-high-regards@reddit
Looks more linear for now tho
Smegmaliciousss@reddit
Life in 2050 under RCP 8.5 scenario
SoFlaBarbie@reddit
If this actual data in the above chart is correct, 2050 is looking more like late 2030s.
Immediate-Meeting-65@reddit
That's fun.
As a side note, if anyone knows how to take the sea surface temp graphs of climate analyser and make that into a desktop wallpaper I'd love a copy.
BurnerUserAccount@reddit
Technology will save us... surely... anytime now...
Schm4rk@reddit
Would be nice to see the other scenarios in the same graph, so we can by what magnitude we are worse off.
last_one_in@reddit
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Representative_Concentration_Pathway#/media/File%3AAll_forcing_agents_CO2_equivalent_concentration.svg
JohnLToast@reddit
We’re fucked
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ViperG:
Submission statement:
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. It is known as worse possible scenario for CO2 emissions. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the IPCC got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
Edit- Title typo its IPCC
Data sources:
https://gml.noaa.gov/aggi/AGGI_Table.csv
https://github.com/benmsanderson/matlab_pulse/blob/master/RCP85_MIDYEAR_CONCENTRATIONS.xls
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1gv417i/iccp_rcp_85_vs_actual_reality/lxywksn/
LackOk7837@reddit
See??? You cant trust the models, this is all hogwash
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Complete-Housing-720@reddit
Methane waiting ring-side to be tagged in with a pile-driver finisher
kiwittnz@reddit
I'd say those who are frightened enough by these stats, look for 'life boat' countries like New Zealand, to live out the remainder of their lives.
Ref: https://www.independent.co.uk/advisor/solar-panels/countries-that-will-survive-climate-change
Extension_Grocery_44@reddit
Can someone much smarter then me please analyze and debunk this graph asap. Because I don't know how to accept the fact that we are all about to get fucked this hard. If this is factual, that would mean we are entering Into a runaway feedback loop right now at probably the least likely time for any actual change to happen. Given the new appointed secretary of energy is insane and wants to produce as much c02 as possible seemingly... Someone math this shit away please.
permafrosty__@reddit
ahh 😨😨😨
Decloudo@reddit
If you actually followed this with a non biased mind this was clear from miles away.
But most humans somehow always think life is a hollywood movie and things will turn out fine even if no one is actually doing anything to prevent the bad outcome.
jedrider@reddit
Is industrial civilization compatible with a stable climate? Well, there's your answer.
Ok_Impression5805@reddit
Looks like the amount was underestimated but the trajectory was not
tonkatsu2008@reddit
This data....all I can say is that the truth hurts.. (both figuratively and literally)
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ViperG:
Submission statement:
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. It is known as worse possible scenario for CO2 emissions. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the IPCC got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
Edit- Title typo its IPCC
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1gv417i/iccp_rcp_85_vs_actual_reality/lxywksn/
Orion90210@reddit
Can you plot the derivative of the two graphs (so I can sleep tonight)?
Cyberpunkcatnip@reddit
Not as sharp of an incline as I was expecting based on temperature rise. Probably due to the massive methane increase
Sabertooth512@reddit
Lmao cookin’
ViperG@reddit (OP)
RCP 8.5 refers to one of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which are greenhouse gas concentration trajectories used in climate modeling and research. It represents a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario and is often considered the "business-as-usual" or "high-end" pathway. RCP 8.5 serves as both a stark warning and a benchmark for what could happen if ambitious climate action is not taken globally. Unfortunately, the ICCP got it wrong with RCP 8.5, we are considerably doing much worse, by orders of magnitude.
milka121@reddit
Line go up!!!! We're winning!!!!
allurbass_@reddit
Are you winning son?
ViperG@reddit (OP)
so winning
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Bored_shitless123@reddit
oops