Possible major flooding event in Northern California
Posted by neschemal@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 35 comments
Precipitation totals from recent model runs project a very wide swath of rainfall exceeding 12 inches in the next seven days. Locally, 30+ inches of rain could be possible in some geographic settings. Could rival the 1997 flood if worst case plays out.
The multi day atmospheric river event the began late day 2 for far
southwest Oregon into northwest California will continue day 3. The
rapidly deepening day 2 low over the northeast Pacific will anchor
a nearly stationary upper vortex off the Pac NW coast day 3. Strong
persistent deep layered west southwest flow on the south side of
this vortex will impact northwest California into far southwest
Oregon day 3. with IVT values of 500-800 km/m-1 s-2. and 850-700 mb
moisture flux anomalies of 2-4 standard deviations above the mean.
There is fairly good model agreement with heavy precip totals of
3-5" primarily over northwest California, with isolated totals of
6-8" possible. No significant changes made to the previous slight
risk area.
(Note this discussion from the Excessive Rainfall Discussion uses single day rainfall totals)
Blarghnog@reddit
The half dozen meteorologists I follow on YouTube we’re all generally in consensus that overtopping of rivers wasn’t likely even in the worst case scenarios as the landscape is fairly parched at the moment.
That said, who knows after North Carolina.
lightweight12@reddit
"...landscape is fairly parched at the moment and lakes, rivers and drainage areas are all ready to absorb the rain."
Parched? Parched doesn't sound like it's ready to absorb rain. It sounds hydrophobic, leading to landslides/ mudslides.
How dry is the ground?
Montagna9@reddit
Also at a landscape level soil doesn't behave like you've seen garden soil behave by becoming hydroscopic, generally speaking if the soil is dry it'll take water in.
lightweight12@reddit
That's not true at all! It's an extreme danger after droughts in some areas. Anywhere that has the slightest slope.
Montagna9@reddit
https://youtu.be/DARUvKPSUhE?si=uCJv-b1wP8tuIMCE
AdditionalAd9794@reddit
We've had some rain over the past two weeks top layer of soil, atleast in my yard is damp
Blarghnog@reddit
Yea, parched doesn’t mean desicated generally. It just means the landscape is thirsty.
ilikehouses@reddit
Also the great flood of 1862 was from excessive amounts of snowpack in the sierras melting nearly all at once from an unusually warm spring, not a single flood event
Blarghnog@reddit
Respectfully that’s not true.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862
ilikehouses@reddit
Respectfully, it was a major contributing factor.
“The flooding was exacerbated by warm rainfall in the mountains, causing significant snow melt to flow into communities.“
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/20thC_Rean/CA_flood_1861-1862/
Blarghnog@reddit
Ok, I’ll give you that! I learned something new thank you!
ilikehouses@reddit
Cheers! :-)
Blarghnog@reddit
Likewise. When you’re right you are right. You want me to delete my comment or leave it as testimony to how right you are?
Sorry I came on so strong. Cheers back. :)
ilikehouses@reddit
Haha feel free to leave it — friendly exchanges like this are increasingly harder to come by!
Blarghnog@reddit
Respect.
Be well my new friend. Have a great night. And likewise — let’s keep it going. Maybe the two of us can make Reddit nice. Or go down trying lol.
monos_muertos@reddit
Micheal Snyder just did a decent video.
Blarghnog@reddit
Great video. This definitely is a storm with a lot of energy.
neonopoop@reddit
They are calling for minor flooding in Curry County, Oregon possible in the Coquille Rover according to NWS
Blarghnog@reddit
Worth noting. Good comment thank you.
neschemal@reddit (OP)
I should clarify myself "rival 1997 storm precipitation totals"
Blarghnog@reddit
In no way meant to come after you friend.
RealCalintx@reddit
100 year floods are important to the redwoods forests of NorCal. Is the infrastructure there ready? Prob more than 100 years ago
Meowweredoomed@reddit
What used to be 100 year floods are now biannual.
RealCalintx@reddit
Almost like something we’re doing is cause like the climate to do things differently, or something.
gallipoli307@reddit
Are you saying it never flooded before? Gtfo
Dry_Car2054@reddit
NorCal has had some large fires the last few years. Hopefully there won't be too many slides in those burn scars.
Vibrant-Shadow@reddit
They're not
ArtisanalDickCheeses@reddit
Yeah, this thing looks fun
mortalitylost@reddit
What the fuck? This never happens in California, right? Seems like the bay area avoids the bulk of it
ArtisanalDickCheeses@reddit
Seems to always be Washington & Oregon. This is like my 9th go-round in a matter of years.
britskates@reddit
Wave heights of 70 feet…..? That’s absolutely terrifying
HappyDJ@reddit
Thank you ArtisanalDickCheeses!
ArtisanalDickCheeses@reddit
Happy to help HappyDJ 😁
Crezelle@reddit
Yo you got any of that cocksu marzu on hand?
thrombolytic@reddit
I'm probably just a bit north east of the main impact area of this system and we'll still get quite a bit of rain and wind. My local forecasts have ranged from 8" of rain in 6 days to 'the system is too far off the coast to cause any issues'. Tonight the NWS issued a wind advirsory for my area.
Notable for the central/southern Willamette Valley- winds from this system will be from the SE/E and our trees that took ice storm damage last year are generally not hardened to that direction of high wind gusts, some predictions say this makes for a higher likelihood of downed trees and branches.
Last week the winds were so loud they woke me up twice during the night which I think I can count on one hand the number of times that's happened to me in Oregon in 15 years (I do not live on the coast).
Anecdotally, we've had quite a bit of rain in the last month in my area. My ground is fully saturated, my seasonal creek is starting to run, there is starting to be standing water on our clay soil. Our mountains to the east are all opening for ski season weeks ahead of schedule with the biggest/earliest snowpacks they've seen in decades.
Mostly I think this will be a standard big windy/rainy fall/winter PNW storm, but after losing power for 9 days in January I am literally trying to be ready for any weather event at all times.