Hello everyone, the moderators of r/economiccollapse removed my post and people still want to read it. Would you mind if I could please repost it here?

Zeynep Tukefci is a Turkish writer who predicted the Covid crisis, Trump's win in 2024, gave correct information about the necessity of masks during the pandemic. She is rigorous, iconoclastic and a realist.

In February of last year, April of this year; she has been sounding what amounts to a 5 AM alarm fire about H5N1.

What is it?

H5N1 is an avian influenza, similar to the spanish flu of 1918. The difference between this flu and others is not just the position of it's hemagluttin and neuraminidase groups; but it's lethality. Covid had a case fatality ratio somewhere between 0.5 to 1.1%. H5N1 is estimated to have a fatality ratio of between 10 to 50%. Oh yes, I forgot, unlike Covid which mostly kills the elderly; the virus kills the young and old equally. People are not immune to the virus, because well our bodies haven't experienced it before. I can say, as a medical person; I have been hearing about the risk of this virus since 2013. It had been spreading in China. However, we were not as worried then as it was spreading among birds, and didn't have the ability to bind to human proteins. We assumed, that if needed, we could easily monitor it and make vaccines to it to protect people.

But that has changed,

How has this developed?

-In February of 2023; H5 N1 went from causing infections among poultry/chicken to infecting more migratory birds which allowed it to spread further and wider. By Feburary, a mutant sprain had also started infecting minks; who are mammals and have respiratory proteins that are similar to ours. At that time, we did have a small amount of vaccines for H5N1 ( as I said, the medical establishment has known about this threat for years); but our vaccine stockpile was small and was made in egg yolk. Well, that was kind of stupid because this virus kills birds.

Source:Opinion | H5N1 Bird Flu is Causing Alarm. Here’s Why We Must Act. - The New York Times

-In August of 2023; cats started dying in Poland. 23 cats were killed by H5N1. Cats are also mammals, which means that the virus had changed from only being able to infect bird to infecting mammals. Luckily, the virus wasn't airborne and only spread by cats eating infected meat.

Source:Opinion | Cats With Bird Flu? The Threat Grows. - The New York Times

-In April of 2024; H5N1 started spreading to cows. It was in 33 herds in 8 states; and people around the cows were getting sick. The virus concentrated in the udders of cows and spread through raw milk. A nature study published then, that the virus that infected a dairy worker in Texas, acquired mutations that allowed it to be more severe in animals. However, our data was limited by our public authorities who were not collecting information and the fact that a lot of dairy hands are undocumented immigrants who avoided authorities and wouldn't report when sick. As far as we knew then, the virus wasn't airborne.

Zeynep: "But having spent the past two weeks trying to get answers from our nation’s public health authorities***, I’m shocked by how little they seem to know about what’s going on and how little of what they do know is being shared in a timely manner***."

Source:Opinion | We Are Blowing the Fight to Contain Bird Flu - The New York Times

-On the 12th of November, a Canadian teen was infected. He is in the ICU in critical condition. So the virus can now infect humans.

Source:Canadian teenager infected with H5N1 bird flu in critical condition

What don't we know?

We don't know if the virus is airborne and can spread people to people.

We don't know when or if the virus will mutate to a more deadly form.

We don't know the asymptomatic infections.

I don't know if we have enough stockpile to save us.

Why is this now a problem?

Well, imaging this; It's February 2025 and RFK has fired 80,000 people in the CDC as the secretary of HHS. Among those fired are people who were monitoring the H5N1 bird flu and know how to scale up vaccine production. He supports raw milk consumption, and H5N1 spreads through raw milk! He argues that vaccines are useless and bad and affect your genes. He promotes cures like ivermectin which will not treat people.

The virus first starts killing undocumented farm workers; however, they don't report to authorities because of Trump's mass deportation plan. From there, the virus re-assorts into a more deadlier and transmissible form. And starts killing people.

Eventually the news reports that a few people have died. RFK says this is the "flu" and not to worry. But people, keep dying.

No one is able to trust the CDC or HHS recommendations or guidelines. Doctors on front lines don't know who to protect others or have any idea how to save people.

It destroys the economy because dead people don't buy gameboys. But because of the last pandemic, Republican government mandates that there are no quarantines and life will go on.

Hospitals are overwhelmed:

Nurses, whom carried a huge burden during the pandemic, have left many of their jobs and work as travel nurses Unfortunately, travel nurses require more money and hospital systems can't afford to hire more nurses. Many residents/trainee doctors who came of age during the pandemic, no longer trust the American hospital system, and unionize of refuse to come to work. It's one thing to take a calculated risk when the death rate is 1% and the economy is closed down; it's another when the chance of dying is 50% and the American people believe the virus is caused by Hillary Clinton.

Ventilators are rationed, and the problem compounds because people who would have otherwise survived from preventable conditions: an asthma exacerbation, or heart failure; can no longer get into the hospital because of the crush of sick people. Doctors, and nurses themselves get sick and die, which only depresses the healthcare staff as well.

The healthcare system fails.

The economy crashes.

In the middle of all of this, finally maybe RFK is replaced; and vaccines are made. However, republicans have spent 4 years demonizing vaccines and Democrats no longer trust the Trump led government; so they won't take the vaccine either.

The virus runs until it burns out in the American populace. During Covid, about 0.35% of the American population died. But we had masks, quarantine and a somewhat functioning health care system.

In 1918, it was 0.65% of the American population.

If H5N1 is as deadly as it appears and remains that, ( which it likely will get milder over time), as much as 53.98 million people could die, around 15.6% if the American population. I will assume the virus gets milder over time, so I'll say 3-5% of the American population, so between 10.38 and 17.3 million people.

I'm sick with fear to be honest.

And yes, that's how I think America collapses.

Edit guys: The one thing I would edit is this: It appears that RFK only wants to fire 600 out of 80,000 workers.

Source:Donald Trump to fire 600 people from the National Institute of Health on Day 1 of second term? Here's what RFK Jr. is saying

RFK Jr. suggests 600 people from the National Institutes of Health will be fired on day 1 of Trump’s second term

( That's from the New York Post), not a liberal website.

Of course, he plans to fire 600 on day one. I don't know about day twenty.