34th AOPA McSpadden Report is out. GA fatality rate at a 10-year low.
Posted by poisonandtheremedy@reddit | flying | View on Reddit | 43 comments
The lastest AOPA Air Safety Institute Accident Report just dropped and as always, some interesting data to mull over. I think something of note is the lowest number of fatal accidents since 2013 👍🏻
Summary and link below.
General Summary The year 2022 saw an increase in total accidents (1,152) of which 181 were fatal. The overall accident rate rose slightly while the fatal accident rate continued trending downward, finishing with a total accident rate of 4.30 per 100,000 hours and a fatal accident rate of 0.68 per 100,000 hours. A large increase in flight activity helped mitigate increases in accidents. Overall, flight activity increased by more than 500,000 hours in 2022.
https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute/accident-analysis/richard-g-mcspadden-report/mcspadden-report-figure-view/?category=all&year=2022&condition=all&report=true
TerribleBuilder5831@reddit
After looking at the data, I don’t really see any real statistical difference between 10 years ago and today. Looks like the numbers are so close that it’s probably not that significant. Also, what is hard is determine is when you start talking about flight hours, I don’t know how they actually determine flight hours. Every plane flies at a different speed, and therefore they probably average it out.
tomsawyerisme@reddit
I'm curious how much of this is because of better regulation/training vs the decrease in GA as a recreation.Â
I've noticed way fewer recreational pilots around than 5-10 years ago. Where as it used to be 80% recreational to 20% training in my area its now flipped with almost 80% of traffic being training related.Â
Funkshow@reddit
Technology has to be a huge part of this. The safety gains over even the last decade is huge. Modern avionics provide so much as far as situation awareness, terrain clearance, weather info, traffic alerts, and more.
theoriginalturk@reddit
Those modern equipped GA planes are in the several hundred thousand dollar range: the only people who can afford to buy and fly em are the top .5% of people and business that expect them to generate revenue or flight schools
The other poster is totally spot on that general aviation is dying quickly. In my metro area 75-80% ~25-35 flights a day out of the airport that are GA are flight training and time building flights
bikeheart@reddit
True for certified aircraft.
You can buy an RV12 with a Dynon Skyview panel for ~$70k. RV6 with the same for less than double that price.
theoriginalturk@reddit
Pulling up experimental aircraft isn’t going to make the point you think it is
Experimental are significantly harder to finance and have their own set of legal limitations
It’s funny that you bring up Vans as they recently filled chapter 11 and left a lot of their kit builders holding some pretty big bags for awhile
halfdonehalfwrong@reddit
Many (most?) RV-12s are SLSA not experimental. Way fewer issues there
theoriginalturk@reddit
How are you backing up that claim?
Almost all the RV-12s I’ve ever seen for sale or ELSA.
A cursory look at barnstormers and tradeaplane shows only ELSAs for sale. Vans website says they sell ELSAs but it’s gunna cost you about 200K starting.
There are much more common certified LSAs but they are also pretty expensive for what you’re getting
halfdonehalfwrong@reddit
Well, my claim wasn't very bold in that I claimed that "many" RV-12s are SLSAs, which seems true on its face. More people want to buy airplanes than want to build them, and Vans has a backlog to produce the RV-12 so clearly people are buying them.
My hypothesis that I have no evidence for is that your research on barnstormers is skewed because SLSAs can be used for flight training much more trivially than the experimental versions. The SLSAs are working airplanes, they're not being sold yet (at least not in high numbers).
bikeheart@reddit
Eh, I had no trouble financing mine and believe I paid no rate premium for it being experimental
What do you mean here? Limitations on experimentals are far less onerous than those imposed on certified aircraft. A big draw is the resulting lower price of parts, avionics, etc.
theoriginalturk@reddit
Who’d you finance through?
I had several aircraft lenders tell me they specifically wouldn’t lend on experimental aircraft
You can’t legally instruct anyone who isn’t an owner of that experimental in said aircraft. Also most experimental are 2 place, with those two combined things depending on your mission it can reduce utility a lot
Personally if my wife asked me who built the plane she’s much happier with “it was built professionally in a factory” vs “some guy built it in his garage” it’s not the end all be all but there can huge differences in build quality and if you’re not an A&P you might not notice everything ditto for doing heavy maintenance yourself
flagsfly@reddit
You don't have to do heavy maintenance yourself though. Part of being a builder is recognizing when the task at hand exceeds your capability. Case in point my 10 is at an A&P shop right now getting some major mods done as part of the condition inspection.
As for buying second hand, I think the advice is the same as any other purchase. Make sure you get a mechanic who is really familiar with the aircraft type to do a pre-buy. Just like anything more than a 172 or Cherokee, your local mechanic is probably not going to cut it. As a builder I can probably make a decision about build quality with about 30 minutes with an RV-10, I imagine the guys who maintain RVs day in and day out could be even faster.
poisonandtheremedy@reddit (OP)
Just got myself an uncompleted RV-10 a few weeks ago. Big intimidating pile of work in front of me but can't wait to finish and fly my Forever Machine!
Jorfogit@reddit
I got mine through a credit union with a HELOC.
Jorfogit@reddit
I have had the same experience.
anustart0607@reddit
They exited bankruptcy 6 months ago and are operating normally.
theoriginalturk@reddit
I know, thats why I said for while people were holding bags
Which they were I know a couple builders who had no idea if the $100k+ they sunk into a lot was lost for a couple months
anustart0607@reddit
If you're speaking of accuracy, wouldn't "recently exited chapter 11" be more accurate than your original "recently filed chapter 11?"
Kaphias@reddit
I get all the same data in my shitcan 150 with an old iPad and ADS-B receiver. No need for the quarter million dollar airplane, these safety tools are widely available and affordable.
That said, yes, GA is clearly on its way out.
Wilbur_Redenbacher@reddit
GA has been “on its way out” since the 80’s and yet, here we still are.
Like literally everything else, it’s gotten way more expensive, and that certainly is a challenge. Maintenance guys are getting older and the industry is losing some of the tribal knowledge needed to work on these dinosaurs…another challenge.
But we’ve hopefully got unleaded fuel support on the horizon, along with medical reform like BasicMed, and a fairly strong experimental market with massive builder communities.
In my area, there are zero hangars available in the metro with waitlists years long. I’ve gotta drive 30 minutes to a rural airport to get to my hangar, and even those are 100% full. It’s a smaller market, for sure…but the interest is still there.
kdot25@reddit
My airport doesn’t even have tie downs available
poisonandtheremedy@reddit (OP)
Agreed. Here in SoCal there are no hangars anywhere. My home airport just had the county come through and kick out any non-aviation hangar tenants. No airplane. No hangar.
Our field avionics shop, and field maintenance shop, are both non stop busy.
We also have a bunch of Experimental pilots and builders, with myself just joining their ranks.
Man I wish I only had a 30 minute drive. I live rural, so it's an hour to get to my hangar!
poisonandtheremedy@reddit (OP)
Yeah same. My cheap and beat looking PA-28 has all the same situational awareness that's to an ipad and ADSB receiver.
I fly for fun, not career.
theoriginalturk@reddit
Do you fly your shitcan 150 for fun and across the country or are you mainly using it for time building?
Kaphias@reddit
I'm a hobby pilot with a PPL and no real desire to go any further than that, certainly not a career. And hell yes bopping around Southeast Alaska in it about as much fun as you can have sitting down: https://imgur.com/a/GMzaIwe
Funkshow@reddit
The stats reference accident rates per 100,000 hours flown so it doesn’t really matter in the total number of hours flown is up or down.
theoriginalturk@reddit
I don’t think you can separate accidents per hours flown from training hours when we’re saying training hours are making up more and more of the total hours.
They’re commingled
EvilNalu@reddit
Everything he mentioned can be done with an iPad and Foreflight.
Mispelled-This@reddit
The accident rate has been dropping pretty steadily since 2010, when the ADSB mandate was announced and glass panels hit the mainstream. IIRC, there was also a big uptick in GA pilots getting instrument rated about the same time. All hail the Magenta Line!
classysax4@reddit
The report says flight activity increased in 2022.
tomsawyerisme@reddit
yep i assume most of the increased traffic is training which has a much better safety record than half-dead weekend warriors doing their own version of special vfr.
poisonandtheremedy@reddit (OP)
74% of 2022 accidents were Personal use flights. 17% were Training related flights.
Ok-Stomach-@reddit
Why do people keep saying GA is dying when metrics say otherwise. Training for PPL is also GA, right? Or do people from good ol’ days just randomly hop in and fly without training. It’s changing for sure but dying? No, you can argue it went more upscale but that’s not the definition of dying. And doctor flying cirrus is as GA as poor dude flying 70 years old Cessna.
Calling GA dying is the same as whiz wheel carrying old farts bemoaning supposedly lack of skills by newer pilots: just cuz the new guys don’t fit some old guys stereotypical idea of what GA pilots look like doesn’t mean they are not doing GA
KITTYONFYRE@reddit
yes, but it isn't the GA people are talking about when people say GA is dying...
it's less GA because there's less of them. there is less general aviation happening because there are essentially no "poor" people in GA airplanes (except for your flight instructor!)
dmspilot00@reddit
These AOPA reports are terrible, a statistician would laugh at them.
laudnry@reddit
Figure 1.4.1: Fuel management accidents are on the rise, while overall is trending down.
kidjay76@reddit
Less people flying as GA become less and less accessible for the average person year after year. I have no data to back this up. My source is literally trust me bro.
classysax4@reddit
The report says flight activity increased in 2022.
freebard@reddit
The post says flight activity increased by 500,000 hours
Slim_Jim722@reddit
Maybe increase in training and less doctors with bonanzas?
Chago04@reddit
But training is still near record high and McSpadden gives the fatality numbers as rates per 100k hours which decreased.
classysax4@reddit
I have a question about 1.3.2: "Types of takeoff and climb accidents".
If a pilot stalls after losing engine power, does that accident go in the LOC category or the engine failure category? I was surprised how few accidents (especially fatal accidents) were listed as engine failures.
rFlyingTower@reddit
This is a copy of the original post body for posterity:
The lastest AOPA Air Safety Institute Accident Report just dropped and as always, some interesting data to mull over. I think something of note is the lowest number of fatal accidents since 2013 👍🏻
Summary and link below.
General Summary The year 2022 saw an increase in total accidents (1,152) of which 181 were fatal. The overall accident rate rose slightly while the fatal accident rate continued trending downward, finishing with a total accident rate of 4.30 per 100,000 hours and a fatal accident rate of 0.68 per 100,000 hours. A large increase in flight activity helped mitigate increases in accidents. Overall, flight activity increased by more than 500,000 hours in 2022.
https://www.aopa.org/training-and-safety/air-safety-institute/accident-analysis/richard-g-mcspadden-report/mcspadden-report-figure-view/?category=all&year=2022&condition=all&report=true
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