Living in collapse - is this super precise collapse timeline accurate?
Posted by nommabelle@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 189 comments
Posted by nommabelle@reddit | collapse | View on Reddit | 189 comments
IAMA_Drunk_Armadillo@reddit
I don't think this is particularly accurate, but it's also not wrong. I'd say we're at a point where the cracks and crumbling can no longer be ignored but just beginning the decline. Global capital will keep slapping duct tape on the pillar to keep it together, but I doubt anyone can know if it'll keep us going for 5 years or 50.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
I don't think it's going to go much more than 5 before it's so clearly a downward trajectory that only 20-30% of the population can imagine something as luxurious as an apartment that meets building code, and a regular job. Until it's super obvious that someone else is going to be the world superpower.
Capitalism of course never ends, we'll be selling our blood but we'll still be selling something.
I mean look how we abandon our old people, we've been doing that for actual decades. Like, no one votes for sane economic policy or elder care help because really, really old people (talking 87 plus) don't vote. And families just abandon that shit like dumping a Twinkie wrapper. Making up all sorts of shit about what they should have done and etc (ok some generations do deserve that) but in general not a fuck given. Not a thought to when they're that age because "they'll just die".
Like magic. They'll just die. Magically. Before they're a "burden" on anyone (fuck's sake are you kidding me with that shit in quotes? That's gratitude for you huh).
These same people don't believe in taking care of business themselves when the time comes. It'll just magically happen. One day they wake up in heaven or some shit.
So it's not at all a stretch to me that we abandon fully 70-80% of our own population. Not a stretch to me at all. We don't have a society here, we have a shit show.
Electrical-Reach603@reddit
If we were abandoning old people on a large scale there would barely be any of them. No we spend a ton of treasure and carbon budget to enable people to live well beyond their tangibly productive years--at least in the developed world we do.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
I'm not entirely sure how to respond to this. There are a lot of NBA basketball players too. How many applicants?
Electrical-Reach603@reddit
My point is folks who make it to Medicare enrollment age aren't exactly being put out on a rock in the forest. Now, maybe their kids and grandkids don't visit and that makes them sad. Maybe they can't afford decent housing or quality of life. But thanks to the medical industrial complex we sure do spend a lot of money on them.
Brendanthebomber@reddit
“I mean look how we abandon our old people, we’ve been doing that for actual decades. Like, no one votes for sane economic policy or elder care help because really, really old people (talking 87 plus) don’t vote. And families just abandon that shit like dumping a Twinkie wrapper. Making up all sorts of shit about what they should have done and etc (ok some generations do deserve that) but in general not a fuck given. Not a thought to when they’re that age because “they’ll just die”.
Like magic. They’ll just die. Magically. Before they’re a “burden” on anyone (fuck’s sake are you kidding me with that shit in quotes? That’s gratitude for you huh).”
Literally that’s what dying of “natural causes” is at this point
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Yeah. And you wanna know what?
The chances of someone just dying in their bed asleep because they just died are pretty close to zero.
What's not at all close to zero includes: falling down and no one coming to check on you for a week, getting the flu and dying of that, getting an intestinal ulcer and shitting out 3 quarts of blood (seen it happen, no exaggeration, took 3 quarts to fill them back up at the hospital), having a stroke and no one comes to check on you for a week and you're a living potato by the time they do, just... all sorts of really nasty shit that takes hours or days and you're awake through all of it.
I promise you'll want to go into care long before it gets to that. Whether or not you can is the real question.
Brendanthebomber@reddit
With my disabilities I don’t have a shot of that happening so I just point it out so others who have the chance realize it
Boomdigity102@reddit
If people think capitalism is just going to collapse out of nowhere, oh boy.
It’s had 200 years of dozens of communist revolutions to collapse and it still hasn’t.
Surveillance capitalism is a new beast from what Marx was dealing with when he wrote Capital.
iMecharic@reddit
The issue with capitalism collapsing is that we are faced with several problems we can’t just out produce or war away. Resource shortages aren’t something we can fight, and are something capitalism has a long history of not being well equipped to handle. Previous shortages were caused by human activity, the upcoming shortages will be caused by a lack of supply.
Electrical-Reach603@reddit
Well, capitalism found a way to get past the whale oil economy and pretty soon coal will be obsolete. Oil will be quite the trick to replace I admit. Best we can hope for us tech that makes fuel out of the carbon in the air (or ocean). But that's a lot to hope for.
iMecharic@reddit
It’s not just oil that’s becoming scarce, it’s everything. Mineral deposits are being depleted, water is running out, rare earth minerals are not infinite. Capitalism demands needless growth but until we become spacefaring that isn’t possible. And at our current rate we won’t make it to proper space travel before we crash our homeworld and get reduced to a pre-industrial society.
individual_328@reddit
To force the analogy, right now is obviously Volume 1. The books cover something like 1,300 years of history, starting with the empire at its peak. The generally accepted end of the Western Roman Empire (476) is covered in Volume 3. History nerds know that the Roman Empire continued into the 15th century in the East, but most folks consider "the" collapse to have happened a thousand years earlier.
Also, the historicity of those books is not held in very high regard these days.
Electrical-Reach603@reddit
The apex of relative western power was probably circa 1900 and it has been in decline since. I'd say the slope got much more slippery in 1970-ish with the collapse of Bretton Woods. Then just about everything got phoney, decadent and depraved. We are pretty well into the volumes and the barbarians are inside the wire. Not sure if it's 5 years, 1 year or 20 but there is a lot of power in the hands of a few dudes whose life goals may be incompatible with the continuation if civilization.
Kitosaki@reddit
I also love how people just assumed rome stopped existing and everyone died when they say the fall of the roman empire.
thevvhiterabbit@reddit
In 536 AD general Belisarius retook Rome under Emperor Justinian!
Maybe in like 2150 someone will retake lost America lol
Drake__Mallard@reddit
Seriously, the peak of western civilization was like 2017. We are just past it.
chualex98@reddit
Why that date? Why not 09/10/2000? Why not 2007 pre great recession? Or 2019 pre pandemic?
Why did u choose 2017?
Drake__Mallard@reddit
Peak oil. More like 2017-2019.
PrizeParsnip1449@reddit
What was 9/10/2000?
Seems like a good date though. Right after the end of NATO's successful Balkan war, and before 9/11 aka the first shot fired in the abject failure that was the War On Terror.
Drake__Mallard@reddit
Peak oil. More like 2017-2019.
Dwarf_Killer@reddit
Especially considering neo liberalism era (post Clinton) been a radicalizing point for the population
Scoot_AG@reddit
How did the Roman empire continue after its collapse?
individual_328@reddit
The empire permanently split into Eastern and Western parts in the late 4th century (it had split and rejoined a few times prior). The Western part is considered to have collapsed roughly a century later, while the Eastern part never did, lasting until it was conquered by the Ottomans in 1453.
Most people don't think of the Byzantine Empire, as it is commonly known today, as the Roman Empire for a bunch of different reasons (if they bother to think of it at all). But the Byzantines considered themselves Roman, as did everybody else at the time, and contemporary historians do as well.
Scoot_AG@reddit
Thanks a lot for taking the time to write this out, you scratched my curiosity itch
Muted-Instruction-83@reddit
As the eastern Byzantines in Anatolia.
SpeakerOfMyMind@reddit
History nerd love <3, can be a lonely passion.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
Happy Friday! I'm sharing this shitty meme I saw on facebook, but was actually curious where people think we lie on the collapse timeline right now?
Personally I'd put us at volume 4 - there are a lot of cracks, but things are still functioning for the large part. Yes, housing is an issue for many, but also rampant homelessness isn't really an issue (I'm not saying homelessness is not an issue though), we have food even if it's becoming increasingly unaffordable, we have access to cheap energy, etc. The rise of fascism I believe is part of collapse, and exacerbated by overshoot and overpopulation. I also believe inflation is in part caused by decreasing EROEI, and we're even forecasted to run out of cheap energy relatively soon (50 yrs iirc). Things are bad now, but don't worry, they'll get worse. Happy Friday.
Fox_Kurama@reddit
I think we are approaching it in the Bronze Age style, not the Classical Era. Bronze Age went up in smoke much faster and completely.
Huntred@reddit
Just looking at food:
There’s plenty of food
In wide variety
Available in supermarkets
That we can count on to be replenished regularly
Which is purchasable (I’m not necessarily saying affordable, but most people do have enough money to obtain it.)
Without real concern of someone taking it from you on the way home from the store or once you get it at home.
You’ll know it’s societal collapse when more than a few of these stop being the norm. We’re barely on #2.
grambell789@reddit
I think food can disappear incredibly quickly. with the magat roundup of illegals in the US farm labor and cheap labor in food processing plants will create food-quakes thats going to cause panic buying in supermarkets. it was crazy the extent that supermarkets went to to make shelves look full, apparently empty shelves causes the herd to stampede harder. I'm thinking about stocking up on some mason jars and practicing perserving some of my own food. not a lot but just enough to make me feel in control a bit more. I think I'll try making kombucha as well. also planning on increasing efficiency of my small garden and checking again what my community garden options are here. I got an electric bike that would be great for trips there.
Huntred@reddit
The roundups will put current laborers in camps.
The laborers in the camps will be dispatched to harvest up the food.
The farms will get the same labor force but at reduced cost.
Private prisons will profit from selling their labor forces (look at how their stock prices boosted last week.)
Even if deportation is the stated intent, deportation requires both countries to agree. Can’t just fly planes of people into Venezuela. So while all that’s being “worked out”, farmers make money and private prisons make money.
grambell789@reddit
That sounds like a logistics nightmare. Labor will be stranded in camps and food will rot in fields. Where's all this money coming from to make prisons and farmers rich? Either consumer or tax payers. And I'm both so I get nailed 2x.
Huntred@reddit
Migrant farm workers make around $100-$150/day. Obvs this turns out below minimum wage.
The wage for an American prisoner peaks around $3.50/day.
SunnySummerFarm@reddit
Curious where you are that migrant workers are making that much? Cause that’s not what they get paid in my area. That sounds cushy.
Huntred@reddit
$100-150 isn’t that cushy when it’s no benefits, no medical, and occasional work often in hazardous conditions. Plus they are expected to work their ass off. But the numbers are here:
More than two million farmworkers were deemed “essential” amid the pandemic in order to sustain food supply chains, but the latest wage data show that farmworkers were not rewarded adequately: They earned just $14.62 per hour on average in 2020, far less than even some of the lowest-paid workers in the U.S. labor force.
SunnySummerFarm@reddit
I was just saying it’s more then many of the migrants get paid here. Which I think is a crappy amount. And I know many of them send as much home as humanly possible.
Huntred@reddit
Yeah — and I think farmers would leap at the chance to pay them even less.
grambell789@reddit
What about all the guards your going to need to watch over all those prisoners? The transportation infrastructure you will need will be insane. Has this ever been done at scale before? Is there a realistic financial analysis? What are you smoking? I'd like some.
Huntred@reddit
All that is billed to the federal government under whatever Mass Deportation American Rescue Act supplies billions to do it. Private prisons get paid from that slush money. Farmers get super cheap labor. If one farmer is paying $150/day/person and another is paying $5/day/person, which farmer stays in business longer?
You don’t need to do a lot of transpo. You just build the camps close to where they needed. They are ultimately talking about rounding up millions of people, so why move them very far?
grambell789@reddit
Have you been in California valley during harvest season? There are buses with migrants all over. Your going to need super secure system with lots of well armed guards. Down south the kept them all chained together so one couldn't sneak away. Can't do that in a field. Your descriptions only convince me more what a failure it's going to be. Trumps retribution plan is being setup as a distraction from these pending failures.
Huntred@reddit
The more you talk about this, the more it becomes more obvious to me.
Give me this one thing — there will be a roundup. Steven Miller has promised it, so it may well be true. If that one thing happens, other things MUST happen:
1) There must be camps set up to hold people. 2) These camps must hold these people for a long time. 3) These roundups are going to target a lot of the people who do this work. 4) This work must get done. 5) Prison slavery is totally legal (California, as you brought up, just affirmed that.)
Given those things that must then follow or already exist, there are going to be FAT government contracts out there for every aspect of what this is going to take, from tents and trailers to food service to transportation. And you can bet these contracts will be handed to loyalists.
The farmers are not going to just scratch their heads and say, “Hey — you took away our labor force.” Not when they are willing to pay for a labor force and the private prison companies are out there with the exact labor pool they need. No, then you bus people — and you already said it is being done already — to locations. (Suggestion: Start a busing company!) Guards? I’m sure Securitas would be down for a contract. Again, a free person costs maybe 50x as much as a prison laborer, so even if there’s a bunch of add-on charges, it’s going to be cheaper to use camp labor than free folk.
Oh, the prisoners are going to escape? Even after a few get shot making a run for it? Where are they gonna go when the police are scooping up every brown person in Southern California with “Paper’s please?” Besides, there will be millions caught in this dragnet. Let a few run.
This is how you have to think of things now. This country is going to turn into 1990’s Russia VERY quickly once they get in charge and with it will come some psychotic levels of capitalism and cronyism. Best start thinking that way now.
grambell789@reddit
I think a lot of farmers who do veg farming that needs manual labor will just plant corn,wheat,soy. Profits are lower but predictible.
the problem is these guys aren't listneing to news. they won't know somebody got shot somewhere else. it will take organized brutality on a massive scale all the time.
your going to have an attica riot on your hands really quick.
Huntred@reddit
I’m pretty sure that when most people see private guards with big guns, they will understand what is up. Many of them will have come from and through war torn areas and will understand what the men with rifles will do.
It won’t be Attica. It will just be prison.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
What's to fail? Know how many companies are going to go out of business with a 60% tariff on China and 20% on everything else?
Most of them. Well, certainly LOTS of them.
So. You can either go work for SpaceX, or, be one that gets thrown in the Elon reject round file, at which point someone with those qualifications should have no problem obtaining a top-tier job in either the food service or house care industries. Or... fruit picker. Prison guard. You don't need a degree for this, you need a pulse and a healthy fear of your superiors. Full employment here we come.
ajax6677@reddit
I would imagine ankle monitors would be in heavy use. They could even set a perimeter limit like an invisible dog fence cranked to 11 that could easily incapacitate someone. I doubt they are going to care much about human rights by that point.
grambell789@reddit
Your costs are going to be crazy. All the craziness of this will be great fodder for hollywood movies for decades.
Huntred@reddit
Whose costs? The costs billed to the Federal Government? Yeah — those costs will be high. The contracts will be epic. If you recall the PPP loans, where the government just gave (and largely forgave) money to business owners, there will be a lot of people lining up to get these deals.
OctopusIntellect@reddit
Yes, this has been done at scale before, in the early 1940s. The most efficient way to watch over so many prisoners is to have some of the prisoners take roles guarding and controlling the other prisoners. Transport logistics were mostly handled by extensive use of rail networks (something the new U.S. regime lacks). You literally build the rail lines into the labour camps.
Financially, it worked out well the last time, except for the issues of sabotage when using workers in more complex roles. There were also issues with some members of the regime causing issues with the system on moral grounds. That aspect seems less likely to be an obstacle this time.
grambell789@reddit
this is a joke, right? I'm convinced Trump will go though with retribution with his enemies as a distraction from these brewing fiascos.
OctopusIntellect@reddit
I'm not really seeing the humor, to be honest
grambell789@reddit
I grew up on a farm. I can see a shitshow from a mile away. this has shitshow written all over it.
LowFloor5208@reddit
Nearly every prison in the country has severe staffing shortages right now. It takes time to hire, train, buy uniforms, buy transport, get a system in place.
The military cannot staff every farm in the country to make sure the inmates don't escape.
I'm sure they will try though.
PrizeParsnip1449@reddit
This. Turns out Trumpists don't actually mind immigrants, as long as they don't have to treat them like human beings.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Now that's some smart Hitlering.
Cultural-Answer-321@reddit
Can't harvest what doesn't grow.
traveledhermit@reddit
I started canning this summer & am going to expand my container gardening next year. I also started baking with sourdough. There’s a learning curve to both.
baconraygun@reddit
Seconded, I started brewing kombucha, and it took me a few months to get good at brewing booch.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
I think there are a lot more indicators and cracks that show before food even appears to be an issue. Food is so important than once it starts to become an issue, collapse will likely speed up. Until then, we're just low-key losing things like support, healthcare, education, etc. You know, nothing important. And that's why I put us at a 4, and why I think collapse has been ongoing for a long time - it's slow and we've got a LONG ways to go
SunnySummerFarm@reddit
Food is going to be an issue in about six months.
Huntred@reddit
Could have done the same with electrical power/fuel, crime (currently super low), employment (very high), and plenty of other facets of society.
Like…nothing has really happened. We’re only seeing a few cracks in the overall system, not a crumbling of the overall social contract and societal norms. Be patient and save your 4 for when like, 3 billion people have died in the strife.
OctopusIntellect@reddit
"There’s plenty of food. In wide variety. Available in supermarkets. That we can count on to be replenished regularly. Which is purchasable. Without real concern of someone taking it from you on the way home from the store or once you get it at home."
That's the case for Western countries and some other countries, yes. But it's increasingly not the case for countries where the majority of people live.
Huntred@reddit
Checking in on high population countries like China and India shows that they are doing ok on the food front. Overall, undernourishment rates have not begun a huge climb. Areas outside of the west will definitely be impacted earlier and harder but it really has not come to pass yet.
In my view. collapse is when millions upon millions start to die and nations crumble.
Ghostwoods@reddit
It's fascinating how much complacency the comments to this post are revealing. Even here, people just can't believe T* means it, I guess.
jakequinn84@reddit
My loony theory is that we are “just before book one”. Roman Republic became Roman Empire. US Republic becomes US Empire. The next 200 years might be the true “Pax Americana” with Caesar Trump declaring himself dictator for life, only die a few years later from the true enemy within, cholesterol. Then maybe Caesar “Barron” voted in by the senate in 2028 as youngest ever president. The “bread” will be provided by fast food and paid for by DOGE coins (dollar collapses 2025-6, Elon turns X into WeChat, and hands out basic income via starlink only) and the “circuses” by the UFC - I can imagine a new coliseum built in honour of Dana White - US gladiators against POWs. Kamala might have a new infantry named after her called the “Kamala Elite Team” in fake honour to democracy. If we Are at book 6… well, whatever happens, plebeians will always remain plebs 😝
Fox_Kurama@reddit
Cool books. But I would say we are going for the Bronze Age Collapse and not the fall of Rome.
demon_dopesmokr@reddit
I would say book 3 or 4. still really early stages of collapse.
Sanpaku@reddit
I'd say we're volume IV. There's a lot longer to fall.
forestapee@reddit
Idk the Roman's didn't have to fair with the collapse of the natural world and the rise of AI at the same time
antigop2020@reddit
Or nuclear weapons in the hands of psychopaths.
leo_aureus@reddit
Nuclear weapons are the only things that can save the natural world, we might just off one another before we can destroy the entire natural world!
Sanpaku@reddit
The advantage of nuclear war isn't that it saves the natural world (it just presents a different kind of more acute short term stressor), but that recovery could start within a decade, rather than within \~5000 years.
leo_aureus@reddit
I am in all seriousness beginning to think of this as a philosophy. I do not want to see an omnicide happen to this planet on top of whatever we end up doing to one another.
No nuclear exchange would be able to make us go extinct, but man, it would eliminate most of industrial society and maybe ensure that the survivors wouldn’t be able to build it back up in the same way for a long period of time…
Throwawayhrjrbdh@reddit
Also also; many of the easy to access reserves of coal, oil and other minerals have all been depleted.
Which would mean any would be civilization would have to develop its technology to rely on alternative (likely renewable) sources of energy and materials from the get go as there won’t be abundant coal for example
Plus-Letterhead-2257@reddit
> Also also; many of the easy to access reserves of coal, oil and other minerals have all been depleted.
I find it hard to believe that at least the US and Russia didn't save easy coal and oil deposits precisely for this reason.
That and a plan to spin up industry quickly after ww3.
Decloudo@reddit
Without a fossile fuels we wont have enough energy or ressources to recreate a modern technological society.
Cause there is no energy source dense/potent enough to actually start/build/create technologies that dont depent on fossile fuels.
If the modern technological society crumbles, it wont ever come back.
Steel alone would be practically impossible to create without fossiles or some "endless energy" tech like fusion (which we dont have and wont for probably decades.)
People underestimate just how much energy/work fossiles provide us with.
Uhbby@reddit
Plus, the potential nuclear winter might not hurt .
vapemyashes@reddit
Omnicide
RecentWolverine5799@reddit
How though? The planet needs functioning systems to survive. You can’t create those through nuclear power. The radiation fallout would poison the air, water, and soil. Nuclear war would prolong any “”recovery”” by a few hundred thousand years.
BabadookishOnions@reddit
Wildlife is pretty resilient to radiation in ways we didn't really expect, and more generally the big climate destroyers such as nuclear winter are very contentious. There is even a theory that nuclear winter was once possible but is now impossible because modern cities are less dense due to suburbs and car centrism, and less flammable, because of suburbs and the prevalence of concrete, steel, and glass buildings.
breatheb4thevoid@reddit
I think you might need to re-examine the definition of 'nuclear winter'. Just because you can hide inside your house doesn't mean your farmed food and livestock can.
Indigo_Sunset@reddit
Ok, but, what if we thought of nuclear war as tit for tat instead of all or nothing? That way we can have the benefits of war being nuclear and we get a jumpstart to geoengineering by popping a few every year. We can workshop the holiday later to replace labour day.
willem_79@reddit
I think from a nature point of view, the pandemic was its last roll of the dice: if it was more aggressive it could have balanced the population to a more manageable level and taken the load off the resources: not good news for humanity but good for the environment.
RecentWolverine5799@reddit
You really nuclear war would only take out humans? The radiation would stretch out all across the planet. Nuclear war is the single worst thing that could happen to the planet.
Absolute-Nobody0079@reddit
Only if they are used for EMP. In fact, using them only to generate EMP is a better way to fight a war than straight up destruction
Boremanfreeman@reddit
and suddenly, tyler durden came to my mind..
_Laughing_Man@reddit
Or psychopathic, ecocidal, AI, with nuclear weapons.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
Plus we're speedrunning this shit by electing in Trump!
tripsafe@reddit
Trump is a blip in the totality of worldwide collapse. Capitalism and its inability to resolve its contradictions is really what’s speedrunning collapse.
CaptainBirdEnjoyer@reddit
Time to speed run the shock doctrine worldwide I guess! - the powers that be
DavidG-LA@reddit
Fare
LARPerator@reddit
That's true, but that's why I'd say we're at volume III. After the Roman collapse they still had a perfectly good biosphere. We have a lot more material civilization than they did, and are losing the carrying capacity of the planet.
JamieTransNerd@reddit
Don't worry too much about AI. We don't have anything truly intelligent. Large Language Models just use statistics to guess what to say next. You can crash GPTs on the regular if you know how to write prompts.
Iamamancalledrobert@reddit
But I’m not convinced the way we produce language is so different— the reason that I’d worry about AI isn’t that it has greater capabilities than it does, but that we might be radically overstating our own capabilities.
If you want to write anything at all, and need to connect together different concepts and words – writing them one at a time, as ChatGPT does and I’m doing now – it is a case of trying to find the words and concepts which make most sense relative to what you’ve already said. And “making most sense” maybe is just a matter of finding correlations within a massive number of semantic dimensions, whether you’re artificial or not.
It wouldn’t feel like we’re doing probability statistics and it wouldn’t be exactly true to say that we were, in the same way that a tennis player isn’t doing calculus when they bat a ball where it needs to go. But it may be that the underlying principles are the same, and the fact we can feel them is less important than we might like it to be.
I find that thought depressing, but I suspect its probably true. The world looks exactly like I’d expect if it was true, and people were trying to come up with explanations why it wasn’t. We reacted in a similar way with animal tools and emotions; we react in a similar way when adults act in the way that children are supposed to and vice versa. We will defend our uniqueness to the end. But I’m not convinced we are really unique.
Zestyclose-Ad-9420@reddit
not a real counterpoint but something to recall is that people have been comparing the human mind to their own technology for centuries now. which produces both useful and less useful insights but ultimatelty reach a dead end in comparision.
I dont really find the conclusion depressing even if true though, my happiness doesnt really rest of my "uniqueness" whatever that means. I mean, humans are unique in the same why snowflakes or flowers are unique, which is pretty damn unique!
willem_79@reddit
And they are eating themselves- they are now digesting AI data which is making them less accurate
starskyandskutch@reddit
No, but they did have dragons
/s
fjf1085@reddit
They definitely had to deal with their own ecological problems but different for sure.
BwookieBear@reddit
Doesn’t mean our suffering won’t be long and perilous in its own way
Tearakan@reddit
Good news is our AI doesn't actually understand what it's saying and has limited uses on a general level and requires crazy levels of power.
It will be very difficult and not super useful for regional powers that survive to keep supporting AI.
Annarae83@reddit
I think that's the accurate take, personally. We're dealing with our own misinformation polycrisis on top of a climate polycrisis. I feel like the fall here will be swift.
dhoomsday@reddit
If we still have coffee and chocolate and bananas we got a loooooong way to go.
Karma_Iguana88@reddit
I'd say we're at III for precisely the same reason
joshistaken@reddit
I'd even hazard vol 3. We're still living a semblance of cushy lives, even if it's just bread and circus for the masses to keep most of us content.
rumpie@reddit
I try so hard not to be a doomer- but I honestly feel like if you are going to bed this holiday season in a comfortable home with a comfortable life, you should be overwhelmed with gratitude at your circumstances. Don't fucking waste this precious family time together fighting about politics or stuffing preferences (wild rice, fight me).
Because this might be the peak before a hard ride to a low, low valley. Enjoy the good times while we're in them. Take photos.
Ketashrooms4life@reddit
Felt that during this years' New year fireworks. Got lost in the colours and suddenly felt very overwhelmed by my luck, spending the night like this when the most brutal conflict in Europe since WWII rages just a couple hundred km from me (and ofc the future of this whole place etc). The low dose of shrooms and weed didn't help tho lol
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Oh I couldn't possibly agree more. I keep trying to tell someone this but they apparently prefer the risk of a homeless shelter for literally everyone involved.
Sorry but playing victim for that sweet sweet government check is about to go very out of style very fast. I say "playing" because it's fairly accurate in this particular case (clearly not in all cases).
KingStannis96@reddit
It is too early indeed. America hasn't yet had a Sulla - and is less than a hundred years away from its Caesar.
Lonely_Cosmonaut@reddit
Bro ||| at best.
commiebanker@reddit
Further to fall, yes. Longer? I dunno I think it could go a fair bit quicker than Rome took tbh
PrizeParsnip1449@reddit
It's so much higher geared than Rome.
Were the Romans sophisticated? Absolutely yes.
Were they dependent on it? Absolutely no, to the point that outposts carried on living in the Roman way for sometimes generations after they largely lost contact with the rest of the Empire.
It's entirely impossible to do that in an oil economy, and not much better with renewables (years rather than weeks, but solar and wind generators and their batteries have a limited lifespan and are then impossible to replace without some very sophisticated manufacturing).
SlipCritical9595@reddit
I might say 3, but close enuf
Maxsmack@reddit
Honesty the most accurate to our current position.
We still have international travel, first world countries aren’t hungry, and climate collapse has only just started to show glimpses of its true self.
Many people can still willingly and easily keep themselves in the dark about the truth, as shown by the top of the pillar still somewhat standing.
SunnySummerFarm@reddit
Book IV starts with the inaugural events of 2025!
Exciting new chapters coming soon!
traveledhermit@reddit
I’m on the edge of my seat!
narutonoodle@reddit
Well I don't think there was ever a point where the pillar was full
OuterLightness@reddit
I don’t think Gen Alpha will be able to handle the problems they will face. Civilization may survive until they take they wheel, but not after.
Janeeee811@reddit
This. 100%. So that gives us what? 10 years? 15 years?
LuveeEarth74@reddit
I teach them, high school science. Sadly I agree.
OuterLightness@reddit
Thank you for your service in the war against ignorance.
TyrKiyote@reddit
They'll have it rough if we educate them poorly.
OuterLightness@reddit
Their performance is already terrible and about to get worse once the Department of Education is eliminated. Superstition will be taught instead of science. Thoughts and prayers aren’t going to solve the world’s problems.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
Reminds me of the *excellent* movie Aniara, how the passengers put all their hope into the next generation to save them. That isn't really a spoiler, so go watch it.
kiwittnz@reddit
FYI: https://www.ccel.org/ccel/g/gibbon/decline/cache/decline.pdf
Rossdxvx@reddit
I always thought that it was interesting how some of the worst and most infamous emperors were fairly early on in the Roman Empire (Nero and Caligula, for instance). That shows that the collapse of Rome was not just because the emperors were incompetent and shitty. It was more of a myriad of compounding issues and not just one thing that led to Rome's collapse.
Like our own civilization, things just stopped working and broke down over time. It was a massive empire to maintain and, like our own civilization that continues to achieve higher and higher levels of complexity, administering the empire simply became an impossible feat.
Professional-Cut-490@reddit
One of the factors that really put nail in the coffin of the old Roman Empire was a climate shift most likely caused by a volcanic eruption that resulted in starvation, This was then followed by the Justinian plague in 541. Known as the bubonic plague now, it probably killed 30 to 50% of the population.
Nadie_AZ@reddit
The Justinian plague happened after the collapse of the Western Roman empire. It was the Eastern Emperor Justinian who was attempting to reconquer Italy and Sicily in an attempt to restore some of the old territories.
Even after the plague, the Eastern Roman empire lasted another 1000 years. The Western was, by then, ancient history.
Professional-Cut-490@reddit
Yes, but he may have succeeded in taking over the western empire again if the Plague hadn't happened. I also know it takes quite a while to stuff to breakdown completely and losing that much population made any recovery impossible.
BeardedGlass@reddit
Oh, didn't realize that.
Around whereabouts would the Pax Romana be? What volume would the Five Good Emperors are in?
Rossdxvx@reddit
There were a lot of emperors. The five good ones were about the middle to 3/4s of the way through, I believe. Don’t hold me to it. I never read the entirety of Edward Gibbon’s books. But, there are different and conflicting accounts on why Rome collapse. Everyone has a different idea of what happened.
In any case, my favorite emperor was Marcus Aurelius whose “Meditations” serves as a guide for dealing/coping with the insanity of daily living.
lifeofrevelations@reddit
considering how old this picture is we're probably on the last one by now
spectralTopology@reddit
A little O/T but these books, IIRC, were written by Edward Gibbon. Some earl wrote a review of one of them that went like this:
"Another damned thick square book, eh Mr. Gibbon? Scribble, scribble, scribble, scribble"
Sasquatch97@reddit
I don't think that the collapse will be even. Obviously if you are in Canada or Sweden or Australia we are further from collapse and with more resources for the future than if you live in Haiti or Sudan or Ukraine today.
ontrack@reddit
Is Trump Nero? Then Volume 2. Is he Caracalla or Elagabalus? Then volume 4. If we are in Volume 2 then we will be back to mostly normal in 4-8 years. If he is one of the latter two then we are in for a very rough period.
RileyMcEachern@reddit
Trump is the American Sulla. The US has a lot farther to fall.
ontrack@reddit
You may be right, but Gibbon's book is about the Roman Empire, not Republic, so I didn't mention Sulla.
Thatsawesomeandstuff@reddit
I think Caracalla is a perfect comparison
individual_328@reddit
He's Commodus, but old. A preening product of privilege, capriciousness and incompetent, undeserving and unqualified for the office.
tipsup@reddit
🥇
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
You and the history buff can talk because this goes over my head :D
Orange_Indelebile@reddit
I feel we are between 2 and 3, because it is not clear cut to everyone in this world that everything is taking apart. Once food security or sea level rise are here in developed countries, then it will become clear, and people will actually wake up. The old politicians will be kicked out, the billionaires will be hunted and in hiding in Dubai. And the rest of us will dramatically change the world.
TWAndrewz@reddit
We're more like the third pillar in. Living standards in most of the world are still quite high compared to where they have been historically but you can see the Decay in the system where it's going to break and how bad things are going to be
Ketashrooms4life@reddit
I think were anywhere between volume II and IV, depending on where in the world you live. Specific location is very important.
Iamamancalledrobert@reddit
There are loads of differences between Rome and a globalised society which I think make the parallel hard— the big one for me being that I don’t know if a country with nuclear weapons could survive anything like the crisis of the third century, where the whole thing becomes an endless series of internal armies couping each other. But also I can easily imagine that happening in a country with nuclear weapons, in which case we’re somewhere around volume II but setting the rest of the series on fire
osoberry_cordial@reddit
I think we’re at the start of Volume IV. The problem is the Roman Empire didn’t really cause the entire ecosystem collapse along with it.
marcabru@reddit
Yeah. There were ecosystems outside the Roman Empire then, like China, states and polities in Africa, Asia, civilizations in the Americas, tribal settlements in Australia. Rome collapsed, but it was a collapse that lasted hundreds of years, and sure, it might affected some people in a bad way (maybe some Roman citizen in Britain holding an office saw that his grandchildren will have much lower standards of living), but others might not even had noticed it.
Now all we have is the globalized world. There is nothing outside. We can't live on the Moon or Mars.
HaBumHug@reddit
I know people are dumping on this as a meme. But here are two economic historians talking about their book on exactly this subject!
In purely economic terms and only for the West, it turns out this is remarkably true. What they don’t cover is the impact climate will have on how it plays out, but one of the authors is currently working on a second book to address this.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/4HmduTmnWavsMhjwA5PZ9x?si=13HzU6eVQuaWMbtEHMrKBQ&t=1
Ulyks@reddit
I don't think the Roman empire is a good analogy.
The empire was limping along for centuries with destructive pandemics, hyper inflation, invasions by barbarians, religious violence, splitting up and trade breaking down, frequent assassinations of Emperors.
Comparatively, we are still at the peak with record trade volumes, pandemics being relatively harmless (yes covid was bad but the Romans saw several pandemics that killed 20-40% of their urban populations because they didn't have vaccines and the ability to lock down), no major change in religion and no territorial losses or splitting the country/empire.
Instead we are dealing with things that could end it all in a very short time with little warning. Nuclear weapons, AI
Perhaps climate is comparable?
BigPhilip@reddit
Incredibly Based and History-Pilled
idkmoiname@reddit
No it's not. We're at the point on that timeline where the roman republics economy starts to collapse because endless growth reaches the border of a limited world. In the romans case it was a simple triangle trade that built the base of the economy: Mine and mint coins with slaves, pay soldiers who make more slaves for more coins.
Their "solution" then was populism to dismantle democracy and turn the republic into an empire with a lifetime emperor. A dictatorship under disguise.
This is where we are, democracies turning to populists dismantling them, the us empire that controls the world through military (which in return brought them more raw ressources to make money) reached its maximum extend and is now losing or giving up influence, and they voted for a populistic wannabe dictator to dismantle democracy. Economic crisis all over the world are just beginning.
But, it could end way faster since our poison is a bit more tragic than just lead in water, and our weapons that will eventually be used in the wars that arise from such a collapse, are much more devastating on a global level.
A-live666@reddit
One of the biggest reasons rome fell was that its citizens became so indebted and the state began to sell off public property to monopolistic groups, that it created proto-feudalism.
There was a huge labor shortage on rural communities after rome couldn’t expand anymore to gain slaves, so landlords began to use debt bondage to secure a workforce. The elimination of the plebs from political life only increased that process. Still several social movements advocated for the redistribution of land and debt cancellations, like that one carpenter from the levant.
322241837@reddit
I think it would be grossly inaccurate to reduce all facets of collapse into a unanimous median, but on a categorical basis, we're probably at a 3 from a global ecological scale. There are also places that have already collapsed (e.g. Haiti, Afghanistan) from a bureaucratic standpoint, so those would probably be a 5.
PrizeParsnip1449@reddit
I don't know about Haiti, but it's debatable whether some of those places ever got on their feet in the first place, or just presented a good but localised illusion of it.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
Yeah, to be clear I'm not saying it's a good metric at all. Just a meme, but maybe we should actually have an in-depth discussion on where we're at that isn't polluted by my Friday shenanigans
322241837@reddit
Oh no, I enjoyed your meme lol, I figured I might as well as prompt genuine conversation since there's bound to be at least a few folks who might take it at face value :P
dumnezero@reddit
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/how-often-do-you-think-about-the-roman-empire
Far_Out_6and_2@reddit
Haven’t read but i am going with where the arrow is
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
Ok that one's on me, I gave you the answer
Far_Out_6and_2@reddit
Alright
SpeakerOfMyMind@reddit
Wow these comments made me feel a little bit better, I did not realize I was more pessimistic than most here. Though, honestly, I shouldn't he surprised, anyone who knows me knows how pessimistic I am.
My main fear is how fast it could happen, for a multitude of reasons, that are all currently in play or soon to be in play.
I've accepted I probably won't have kids, which breaks my fucking heart. I want to do everything I can to make things better for anyone who ever has to live in this shitty world. But my most selfish desire is to let it last till I'm towards the end. I feel awful thinking that, but I know I wouldn't survive anything.
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
I'm with you on the kids stuff. In a twisted way, this election has comforted me in that aspect - with the increased MAGA popularity and republicans controlling all branches and the supreme court, I feel I've made the right decision to not have kids so far, and it's solidified that decision for me to never have them
SpeakerOfMyMind@reddit
Absolutely, I'm glad I'm not alone.
Like I said my whole life I have wanted kids, since 3rd grade or so, but now I have a multitude of reasons why I feel, arguably, unethical in bringing them into this world. Especially, as you said, with MAGA and stripping of Roe v Wade. If I were ever lucky enough to find someone to want to have a family with, I won't be able to feel confident in her safety, then if it was a baby girl, I can't even protect her for her own fucking rights.
Sorry just wanted to vent, I'm sorry we are facing similar issues. I hope that even in these hard times, you find comfort and happiness.
DarkVandals@reddit
Someone linked this in another sub, i think we are done for feel free to pass it along
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7203172/
Achaboo@reddit
What volume would be the roaring 20’s?
TuneGlum7903@reddit
This is a classic but I found this new take on the topic to be FAR superior.
The Fate of Rome: Climate, Disease, and the End of an Empire by Kyle Harper (2017)
If you are like me, you were taught that Rome collapsed because of social decay and barbarian invasions. Gibbon’s “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”, written in 1776, framed the narrative for how we viewed Rome’s collapse for over 200 years. Harper’s book, written in the age of climate change and pandemic diseases, completely reevaluates what happened to Rome and is chillingly relevant to our world today.
Consider this, in AD 150 the Roman project was at its peak. The population of the Mediterranean basin and Europe is believed to have been around 75 million people. Five hundred years later by 650 AD that population had declined by 50% and Rome had collapsed.
The old story was that this was the result of social decay, warfare, and governmental collapse.
Harper, using new studies and data tells a completely different story. One of changing climate and multiple pandemics.
Starting in 150 AD the weather in the Roman world started getting worse, going from warmer to colder. It got progressively worse for the next 500 years causing multiple droughts, falling agricultural output, and famines.
This climate change was a disaster in and of itself, but it didn’t happen by itself. One of the points that Harper makes is that the Romans created a world where a pandemic could happen.
Cities with dense populations connected by highly trafficked trade links bringing in goods and people from all over the world made the Mediterranean a vast petri dish waiting for something deadly to fall into (sound familiar?). In 165 AD something did.
Starting in 165 AD the Antonine plague is estimated to have killed 7,000,000 in the first years that it hit the empire (165–180 AD). Killing as many as 40% in many of the major cities.
After 165 AD plague was always happening in the Roman world and some of the “flareups” had fatality rates of up to 50% in places.
Harper’s point, is that while Rome may have had problems with governance, overshadowing everything was an increasingly hostile climate making it difficult to feed the population and, vicious plagues that depleted the pool of manpower available to do anything.
The parallels to the world we are facing today are obvious and compelling.
-----------
Rome is an example of "protracted collapse" or slow collapse. It's what happens when the STATE and its institutions are strong and able to effect a "managed retreat" in the face of multiple disasters.
In terms of a comparison to Rome we would seem to be in the opening phases of Collapse. Implying that we were in Vol One and our descent was just starting.
But what if Rome isn't a good model to compare our current civilization against?
There are OTHER examples of Collapse.
The Great Maya Droughts: Water, Life and Death by Richardson B Gill (2001)
One of the advantages in living in an age of cultural fluorescence, when there is an abundance of wealth and clever minds, is that research gets done and mysteries get solved. One of those mysteries that got solved in my lifetime, was the question of “what happened to the ancient Maya?”
ShakyLens@reddit
Seems optimistic. LoL
howardzen12@reddit
It may all be over sooner then we think.
Taqueria_Style@reddit
Put it this way. Start learning Mandarin.
homebrew_1@reddit
Brought to you by Carl's Jr.
citizensnips134@reddit
!remindme 4 years
RemindMeBot@reddit
I will be messaging you in 4 years on 2028-11-15 04:56:10 UTC to remind you of this link
CLICK THIS LINK to send a PM to also be reminded and to reduce spam.
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flamingchaos64@reddit
You wish. At beast we're in volume 4. More likely 3.
Far-Seat-2263@reddit
Volume 2. We got a loooooong way to go….
Cody10813@reddit
If we're going one to one with Rome I think we're a hell of a lot earlier than that but also there's no way once power becomes consolidated in a single individual we chug on for another 1500 years like Rome did.
roblewk@reddit
I’m adding Climate change to the calculation and saying we are just finishing Chapter III.
FREE-AOL-CDS@reddit
We're still in book 2 or 3!
Intelligent_Run_3195@reddit
When the Orange painted Caligula has leprosy the prophecy will be fulfilled.
tokwamann@reddit
You can also consider the standard run model for Limits to Growth, especially when compared to real data from the early 1970s to the present.
Logical-Race8871@reddit
We haven't even run out of twinks yet. Get real.
WorldWarPee@reddit
Oh good, we've got plenty of time to go to work then
nommabelle@reddit (OP)
I like your optimism!
NomadicScribe@reddit
Hard to say. The Roman Empire's decline took longer than the USA has existed. The US has only had its current borders for 65 years. I'd say we're at vol. II or III when you start seeing the borders change. We'll be at vol. VI when you're in Nebraska or Wyoming and there's only a vague residual memory of a time when all the territories were united under a single government.
Hannibaalism@reddit
the columns are linear but should be non linear because collapse happens exponentially
Intergalactic96@reddit
sure, im thinking VI is roughly accurate. of course what the future holds is known only to the thread spinning norns and no matter what one believes, we cannot ever be privy to that information. But I do feel like we’re at the later stages of the beginning of the end. So nearly the middle of the end. Oh well.
Pickledsoul@reddit
Well, the Roman Republic fell, and then we got the Roman Empire. Lets hope history repeats.
Myth_of_Progress@reddit
For industrial civilization? We're still in the first half.
recitegod@reddit
WIFI is still here... We must be at step II. or III. Bottlecaps? That is VI for sure. VII is when you cook your pets.
Traditional-Adagio-2@reddit
Don't forget to add in the exponential aspect of rate change
StatementBot@reddit
The following submission statement was provided by /u/nommabelle:
Happy Friday! I'm sharing this shitty meme I saw on facebook, but was actually curious where people think we lie on the collapse timeline right now?
Personally I'd put us at volume 4 - there are a lot of cracks, but things are still functioning for the large part. Yes, housing is an issue for many, but also rampant homelessness isn't really an issue (I'm not saying homelessness is not an issue though), we have food even if it's becoming increasingly unaffordable, we have access to cheap energy, etc. The rise of fascism I believe is part of collapse, and exacerbated by overshoot and overpopulation. I also believe inflation is in part caused by decreasing EROEI, and we're even forecasted to run out of cheap energy relatively soon (50 yrs iirc). Things are bad now, but don't worry, they'll get worse. Happy Friday.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1grjeng/living_in_collapse_is_this_super_precise_collapse/lx6ezn7/