I work for a company that sells parts for HVAC/R systems and other building parts. Been in business for decades. You have no idea what's coming if Trump's policies go into effect.

Additional information: Before the pandemic, we'd order parts from around 90 different manufacturers. There are standard lead times and CPI-adjusted yearly pricing increases on most products. Usually those lead times were between 3-14 business days. Yearly price adjustments and increases usually hovered between 1% and 5%, but always steady and predictable. With the exception of some outliers, these things were predictable and stable.

Since the pandemic, the manufacturers of these products have struggled to keep up with orders. First it was the shutdown of factories in China. That pushed some lead times out up to 6 months. It takes a lot of time, effort, money, and planning to bring a factory back online. Some Chinese manufacturers took the opportunity of the pandemic to change the way they did business; usually for the better. It still isn't enough.

Prices have been all over the board the last couple of years. There have been component shortages. Last year some manufacturers had price list increases of up to 15% to make up for unexpected costs since the pandemic.

Most of the products we sell come from either China, Taiwan, Mexico, or Denmark. If I could give a ballpark figure, I'd say 96% of the products are made outside of the United States. And even products made in the US rely on foreign parts or materials.

Since a lot of parts manufacturers end their fiscal year in September, this is usually the time of those price list updates. Manufacturers are already working to factor in a possible 20-60% price increase across the board on ALL parts due to the Trump tariffs plan. We don't eat those costs. Those pricing increases are passed on to customers. Sorry. That's capitalism.

There has also been an uptick in what I'd call "panic orders" of companies attempting to buy out available stock at current prices. This may lead to shortages.

If Trump's isolationist policies and tariffs go through, expect those price increases to go into effect immediately.

We sell parts to hospitals, schools, private residences, commercial office buildings, and civil infrastructure. Sales especially increase incredibly after natural disasters. Floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes.

One day soon it may be a common occurrence to wait up to 8 months for a new AC unit or heating part and be hit with those price increases due to tariffs. With the 1-2 punch of price increases plus incredibly long waits for parts, this will put a lot of small businesses out of business. Houses, office buildings, hospitals, schools, water filtration systems, and more could be offline for months or years without being able to quickly repair or replace their HVAC systems. And if you can't quickly repair your HVAC systems, especially in humid climates, expect mold and mildew problems to become rampant, possibly leading to the problem of blighted, abandoned buildings. Insect problems are common in unheated buildings, too.

You might not think about it, but the parts we sell are required to keep civil society running smoothly and if it gets as bad as I think it might, a lot of people are about to experience the most uncomfortable and devastating period of their life. My advice: Buy your own emergency water filtration system now and plan for major interruptions after natural disasters. Communities aren't going to be able to bounce back quickly after them.

I hope cooler heads prevail and none of the worst of it comes to pass. If a trade war with China begins (or worse, a kinetic war and/or they take Taiwan), our ability to repair and build infrastructure will be cut off at the knees and our economy would come to a halt.