How would a Trump win affect PC component prices
Posted by SplatoonOrSky@reddit | buildapc | View on Reddit | 89 comments
Do not make this political because that is not the topic. I am genuinely curious on this.
A core part of Trump’s economic policy, if enacted, is tons of tariffs on foreign goods. This would mean increased prices since consumers typically make up that increased cost.
Let’s just focus on GPUs for now since those prices are the most significant. Nvidia relies on TSMC for their chips. While there is an Arizona location it’s to me understanding they still heavily rely on the main Taiwan location for GPU manufacturing. This would mean some sort of importing will be involved even if the final part of GPU assembly takes place in the U.S., meaning tariffs.
Am I missing something here? Would this not mean that, from a value perspective, the best time to make a PC upgrade would be… right now? If tariffs force chips prices to increase further by a significant margin that’s just another stain on the mess that is current GPU pricing.
Sorry to the mods in advance if it gets heated.
WyomingCountryBoy@reddit
I am very late but the Corsair K70 Max I bought a few months ago for $182 is now $250 thanks to TACO.
whomad1215@reddit
tariffs increase the cost of anything imported
all pc parts are imported
China could also invade Taiwan, who knows what would happen at that point if China controls semiconductor production
peppers_@reddit
I'd be pissed if CHIPS gets removed. I was in the semiconductor industry, supply chain specifically, and it was like 'Yes, this is some best practices shit to have more suppliers, especially domestic.'
The_Schwy@reddit
how are you feeling now? Maga cult in full denial of their terrible decisions
peppers_@reddit
So I assume economically, the US will lose a lot of its current valuation and while it will still be the top economy, the distance between it and others will shrink over the years. As for supply chain specifically, across the board tarriffs will likely inflate costs by double digit %s for consumers.
For MAGA, I have chosen to give them no show of empathy. I am tired of other people's terrible decisions, even people in my life who knew I am a minority that Project 2025 and Trump targets with their vitriol, yet still voted for him. They have no empathy unless it happens to them, so they get what they voted for.
Apprehensive-Menu544@reddit
Sorry but I dont think TSMC foundries will be useful here.
10001110101balls@reddit
If China invades Taiwan, they won't suddenly control semiconductor production. Even if TSMC employees all continue showing up to work, there's not much they can do without access to the global supply chain. Semiconductor production in general would be extremely disrupted, and would take a decade or more to recover.
Free-Refrigerator485@reddit
The hell?
Agastopia@reddit
Yes, presumably prices will go up 20% if those promised tariffs go into effect
hard_attack@reddit
Sorry for the dumb question. Does that make the stock price go up or down?
Agastopia@reddit
No one knows, the tarrifs probably won’t affect the stock price all that directly since everyone already knows that’s what Trump wants to do it’s already priced into stocks
Parenegade@reddit
lol
namsterdamus@reddit
In the long run stock prices will go up as they did before. Once people get acclimated to the new higher prices, the cost will eventually go down as manufacturers move to other countries such as Malaysia and Thailand, at first the production will suck ass so the cost is high but after 3-4 years it will come back down however consumers will be used to the high prices and just keep paying which is when they rake in the profits. Pre Trump Tariffs top of the line GPUs were around $1200, During Tariffs they went up to $1900 and now they sit around $1700. 5090 will likely be above $2k but people will get used to it and it will settle in at $1900 as the normal price.
laurentschoice@reddit
That post didn't age too well..... Malaysia got 25% and Thaïland 36 percent.... Actually every country in the world go similar if not higher tariff.
Truth is, the Component consumer market poles shifted.
hard_attack@reddit
Oh thank you. And Ha! thanks for not ripping me apart. I think I’m going for nvida this week
xjay2kayx@reddit
It definitely won't go down.
It might go up due to scarcity. Like how cost of GPUs went crazy during first two years of covid.
hard_attack@reddit
That’s what I was guessing. AMD & Nvidia?
Additional_Self3021@reddit
I think that the Trump administration would make an exception on tariffs for a nation with as much strategic importance as Taiwan, especially since he has a much harder line stance against China.
I would say to expect the price of everything to go down, like the way things were in 2017-2019. The price of a 3060 has been about the same for about 2 years now.
Trump may not know exactly why NVDA/TSMC/AMD are all so important, but his son Barron Trump DOES, and he has made it a point to educate him on certain matters which is a major reason he ended up making the rounds on the podcast circuit and part of the reason he resonated so much with Gen Z males. Barron Trump is a gen z male and he is a pretty normal kid other than being who he is. Just like Ivanka will advise Donald on what stance he might take on certain issues effecting women, and Ivanka is a New York City Classical Liberal in the true sense.
I think we may finally see mid-tier GPUs under $400 again. but never under $300.
laurentschoice@reddit
This post didn't age too well ...
Rj23_@reddit
Right and building a budget gaming PC is out the window
Ifawumi@reddit
Ivanka is a liberal???? 🤣🤣🤣🤣
No, she had absolutely no idea on the issues that effect the average woman
How do i know? I am an average woman
Additional_Self3021@reddit
You're not here to have a genuine discussion or to learn anything new.
Ifawumi@reddit
I didn't say anything to imply that. I expressed incredulity that a multi millionaire would understand the common woman who makes a median of 4k a month. A woman who shipped her business overseas
Please explain to me any commonality other than a uterus that i share with her. I mean, she even says she is a proud Republican. The GOP is not liberal:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/us/politics/ivanka-trump-republican.html
natecoin23@reddit
Can I get some of what this guy is smoking?
Additional_Self3021@reddit
Got it from a Biden voter in Chicago
ApathyMoose@reddit
Definitely isnt the legal stuff.
Additional_Self3021@reddit
Fuck the law
Ok-Highway-8136@reddit
Seriously.
VoltBoss2012@reddit
Best example of 'Alternative Facts' I've seen in a while. Supposition with no evidence from history.
Additional_Self3021@reddit
I'm only giving my opinion on what I think will happen.
ZeroCool0194@reddit
Yea thats gonna work out well
Traditional-Cat1237@reddit
It looks like semiconductors will be exempt. Still, wtf.
Naerven@reddit
Essentially speaking if he gets his way and enacts a 30% tariff then the buyer will have to pay 30% more. Again this is an if sort of situation.
Apprehensive-Menu544@reddit
Probably not. 30 percent tariffs will probably equate to 20 percent rise in costs.
Naerven@reddit
So if you were a business and something that used to cost $100 now costs $130 you would only increase the price by $20? Typically speaking businesses want to make money.
Apprehensive-Menu544@reddit
It wouldnt, not all their cost is production in sweat shops, some comes in the form of development and research which is not tariffed, 20 is a high estimate.
Naerven@reddit
If you buy something from overseas they are going to stop the package at the border and take the cost of r&d out. They tax it by the total price. If it's sold for $100 then that is what gets taxed.
Apprehensive-Menu544@reddit
Wrong. Lets say ford makes a car in china and imports it into the us. They pay the customs value, which is what Ford is paying whoever is making their card (that be them or a subsidiary) for the car. Which is a fraction of MSRP. It also doesnt include the research, market analysis, marketing, and other costly things that come from making a car. There for it is not included. So then they pay lets say 30 percent tariff on the import of a 30 thousand dollar car which equates to around 9000. so then you have a 39000 production cost and to that you ad lets say 20 thousand in research, and 20 thousand in margins(and other randoms stuff). You have a 79 thousand dollar car (MSRP). The tariff making up around 11 percent of the total cost. So in this example a 30 percent tariff equates to around an 11 percent increase in the MSRP. This applies to everything.
Naerven@reddit
Ok I'll just say you are 100% correct then. Enjoy your day. Mine is a bit busy to go back and forth as neither of us are really right or wrong. We are just too old and stubborn to give way lol.
SignalButterscotch73@reddit
Everything will go up in price in the US because of his economic policies and the US based tech companies will use that as an excuse to raise prices globally.
He'll encourage Russia to completely anex Ukraine, giving China confidence that it can get away with conquering Tiwan without any interference causing prices to climb even more, and possibly completely ending TSMC as a fab for Nvidia, AMD, Apple etc because of his economic policies are just so amazing.
You can't even call his policies isolationist or protectionist since the economy most damaged by them will be the US. He's a "let the world burn as long as I get rich" politician.
bp1976@reddit
Im not a Trump fan but I do think he will defend Taiwan. He is as anti China as it gets and his people will make sure he knows how bad it would be for US businesses if China annexes Taiwan.
guarddog33@reddit
Considering he's thrown the concept of Taiwan paying for US protection via semiconductor production, I'm not so sure. He's actively stated that if you can't pay to play, we won't be there when you hit game over
bp1976@reddit
I think Elon will explain to him how much money he would lose if we lost access to chips from Taiwan.
Apprehensive-Menu544@reddit
decently. Taiwan is literally key.
namsterdamus@reddit
This especially sucks since TSMC opened a new Taiwan plant in Kaoshiung and it is the only fab that can do 1nm and smaller. AMD relies on it heavily but TBH if China takes it over, all fab under 1nm will basically stop since nowhere else are they doing it with that precision.
Redacted_Reason@reddit
Hope you’ve got a GPU you really like already. This is gonna be a bumpy ride
ShishirKkk@reddit
praying my refurbished rtx 2060 can carry me for 4 years
ghxstkodoku@reddit
Lmao I’m in the same boat. 2060 is on its last leg
nrtzz@reddit
I just got a 7900xt for $430 after trading my old in so I hope I’ll be happy for awhile
Bearex13@reddit
So glad that out of all times for prices to have a chance of going up a lot that I finally had saved up enough to build my new PC
grimlocks844@reddit
Same. I finished putting my pc together last year. Only part I was missing was a 4080 for my current build. Was going to wait a bit longer as I was still using my 2070 super. Friends and I discussed this on discord and I bought the card that night. Didn’t plan on buying it right away, but I’m not paying even more than I have to for my card.
voltagenic@reddit
This is why GPUs went up in price during COVID. 🙃
namsterdamus@reddit
I kept telling people this on X but maga people simply don't believe it.
Danjour@reddit
Anyone still on that platform is an idiot
Bobert25467@reddit
Well I saw a leaker claim Nvidia was already shipping the 5000 series GPU into USA to get ahead of possible tariffs if Trump won so odds are prices will go up on some items. I don't think it's all items though because I think he had tariffs on China the first time too and prices didn't go too high. But I could be misremembering.
C_Werner@reddit
NVIDIA will happily raise prices of already-shipped units. It's happened before, it will happen again.
aeo1us@reddit
Correct. They’ll raise prices to establish the new standard. Bringing cards in early is a way for them to pocket the difference.
khanhncm@reddit
currenly 4090 can't be had for 1600 msrp. We have to pay >2000 for it. Even NVDA doesn't raise pricre, retailer will raise price...
guarddog33@reddit
Part of this is specifically due to the 4080/4090 no longer being produced due to the 50 series. Supply/demand, there's now a limited market of 4080/90, how bad do you want one?
West-SideDepression@reddit
So basically am fucked get a 3080?
namsterdamus@reddit
Rumors are the 5090 target price will start above $2k MSRP
Beauabee@reddit
We hope you're right, but we will find out soon enough. As per the modules, check the news, many are in agreement with the rule and gooverences of tariffs, prices will increase, regardless of opinions.
remifasomidore@reddit
He also opposes the CHIPS act, which is not good for domestic production of PC parts.
strawberrycamo@reddit
I know he said this but I have a feeling he’ll repeal it only to do the same thing and slap his name on it
remifasomidore@reddit
I don't think he'll even repeal it, he just opposed it because his opponents passed it and therefore it is bad.
lord_uroko@reddit
Yea it might be like biden and insullin. Trump made a price cap so biden removed it because trumps name was on it and then just implemented his own. Could be same thing happen for chips act
FlowerPuzzleheaded34@reddit
That’s really not what happened though, Trump made a temporary price cap only for certain recipients of Medicare part d which expired in 2023, while Biden’s price cap covers all Medicare part D and B recipients
strawberrycamo@reddit
exactly. Truthfully it seems like something he would support based on his views on china if it weren’t for his opponents passing it first
AstarothSquirrel@reddit
In general, Tariffs are only imposed on products and services that are also being produced by the country imposing the tariffs. This is to protect those industries that would be adversely affected by cheap imports. If the US are not making their own components, increasing tariffs would harm those industries that use those imports. Whilst I think everyone has their own opinion on Trump, I don't think he is going to introduce policy that cripples American industries. In fact, considering the rumblings of alienating America from Europe, I could foresee attempts of stronger trade deals with China but these are unlikely to include computer components.
SplatoonOrSky@reddit (OP)
There technically are TSMC and Intel fabs within the states, so that would be justification for tariffs by your line of reasoning.
I’m also being told Trump opposes the CHIPS act though that allows domestic manufacturing to take place though. So I’m a bit split on where this could really go
namsterdamus@reddit
Yea but the US manufacturing isn't at the same scale and technological level. TSMC in Taiwan does must smaller fabs used in the newest chips, what we have here are for the older, easier high yield stuff, above 4nm so mostly mainstream, but that does make a huge bulk of the computing here for office productivity type of hardware.
AstarothSquirrel@reddit
Yes, if internal supply is able to meet demand, there will be tariffs put in place that will cost the consumer more. Sometimes, there are tariffs placed on things like ingredients but not on the manufactured products. (this was one of the reasons the UK left the EU, the UK was being forced to charge tariffs on imported products that were not being produced in the UK, bananas was a good example of this)
So, yes, you can expect to see prices for imports products to skyrocket to similar prices for "made in the US" products which means that the price is set by intel's shareholders. What an exciting time to be alive.
bp1976@reddit
The chips themselves, sure, but the PCB, cooling, power delivery, everything else is done in China. IDK how that works but I feel like if they can fuck us, they will.
AstarothSquirrel@reddit
The tariffs are just to protect American interests. Every dollar you spend on the Chinese economy is basically a dollar that's not being spent on the American economy (which means less profit for shareholders) All countries do this. American industries will lobby the politicians to make sure that their profit margins are not adversely affected by imports.
Due-Competition4564@reddit
That's not how tariffs work. Tariffs are context-dependent and by themselves accomplish nothing.
Here's a good explainer: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/09/economic-arguments-tariffs-trump/680015/
AstarothSquirrel@reddit
Are you saying that tariffs don't inflate the prices of imports?
Due-Competition4564@reddit
No? Only that whether they are good for the nation's economy is context-dependent.
Due-Competition4564@reddit
This seems like a reliable analysis but I can't deny that the incentives to make things seem bad are a little mixed.
tl;dr "Consumer Technology Association estimates laptops, video game consoles, and phones will see significant price hikes"
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/trump-tariffs-increase-laptop-electronics-prices
Summary of **estimates**
Sechelx@reddit
I would say you have a Time window of at least a year to 2 years before those tariffs can take full effect
Errettfitchett03@reddit
We don't know. It's very likely that Trump will support and give more money to intels fabricator contracts and might want nvidia and AMD to build fabs in america. Pc parts could be more expensive short term, but cheaper long-term, it all depends. It's likely not to change much.
SeaworthinessMuch230@reddit
I could be wrong about this but wasn’t one of those company’s actually working or talking about build a fab in America back when he was president. They said it would take a few years to build and start fabrication not sure if that ever got started building or not but I do remember it.
Errettfitchett03@reddit
Intel is building fabs, but intel is also having massive stock price dips, and it making bad leadership choices, so I no longer trust that they have what it takes to break semiconductor manufacturing back to America. Trump gave them money, and biden gave them more money. I think we would need more companies to invest in american fabs to get it going.
SeaworthinessMuch230@reddit
I knew it was one of those company’s. Yea intel right now is not in great shape with the issues going on with cpus dying, then trying to get into the gpu market not to mention AMD Ryzen architecture taking so much consumer market share. Without there xenon stuff they would really be hurting.
Isn’t there a rumor about Intel and Nvidia joining up.
Kojinka@reddit
I want to hold on to the AM4 platform with the 5800X3D in my 4k rig, but those gains on the 9800X3D! I still can/should hold off on upgrading, but i fear the tariffs will be in full effect with no end in sight by the time I feel my 5800X3D is no longer available to keep up, depending on how everything plays out
lord_uroko@reddit
It will probably have no impact at all. It is unlikely he will impose tariffs on components due to there not being competitive manufactures in america. Taiwan semiconductor really has a monopoly on the market and they get to decide prices. As the nake siggests they exist in taiwan and our election will have minimal to no impact on them.
SlowFatHusky@reddit
Tariffs are a big stick Trump is willing to use in place of the military. It can be effective at getting other countries or companies to negotiate or stop doing something. John Deere and Stallantis are reportedly thinking twice before moving production to Mexico. China has a poor economy to deal with and not exacerbate. Not sure what he can do to Russia economically, but Ukraine is as easy as stopping support.
The brief port strike on the east and southern coasts has been suspended until January 2025 (temporary contract in place). That has the potential to screw up prices too (probably not as much as a west coast strike).
MrMuf@reddit
Up
curt85wa@reddit
Just buy what you need now. Don't bother putting any more thought into it
Nitrozzy7@reddit
Trump won, prices still suck.