By Age 10, Nearly Every Child Could Have Long COVID: Shocking Projections

Posted by TheMemeticist@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 349 comments

LC infections over time

A model based on data provided from the Canadian government suggests that nearly every child may experience Long COVID symptoms by age 10, driven by recurrent COVID-19 infections and cumulative risk.

This model, developed by analyzing infection rates and using data from the Institut national de santé publique du Québec and the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, estimates an average infection rate of once per person per year. With each infection presenting a steady 13% risk of developing Long COVID, repeated exposures drastically increase cumulative risk over time.

Key findings from the model:

The methodology uses a cumulative risk formula to calculate the likelihood of developing Long COVID over multiple infections, assuming infections occur independently and at a constant risk rate. The model estimates that nearly all children will face Long COVID by age 10 if these infection rates continue, potentially marking a significant long-term health impact for the entire population.

To explore the data and methodology behind these findings, you can view the project and code on GitHub: LC-Risk Estimator.

Recent surges in pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses in the U.S. may be linked to immune system damage from repeated COVID-19 infections and Long COVID (LC). Mycoplasma pneumoniae, a common cause of "walking pneumonia," has sharply increased among children, alongside significant rises in hospitalizations for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV​.

Research reveals that LC often weakens immune response, leaving individuals more vulnerable to additional infections. Autoimmune responses triggered by LC can create chronic inflammation, damaging lung and other body tissues. This impaired immunity is thought to be a factor behind severe respiratory outcomes, including recurrent pneumonia, as the immune system becomes less capable of fighting off routine pathogens.

With cumulative COVID exposure, especially in young people, the weakened immune systems may struggle to fend off infections. Preventive health measures and managing LC risks are critical to mitigating these rising respiratory threats.

The urgent need for measures to reduce transmission and manage Long COVID risks as COVID continues to circulate globally.