By Age 10, Nearly Every Child Could Have Long COVID: Shocking Projections
Posted by TheMemeticist@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 349 comments
A model based on data provided from the Canadian government suggests that nearly every child may experience Long COVID symptoms by age 10, driven by recurrent COVID-19 infections and cumulative risk.
This model, developed by analyzing infection rates and using data from the Institut national de santé publique du Québec and the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force, estimates an average infection rate of once per person per year. With each infection presenting a steady 13% risk of developing Long COVID, repeated exposures drastically increase cumulative risk over time.
Key findings from the model:
- 2022: After the first infection, each individual faces a 13% risk of Long COVID.
- 2026: With five infections, the risk climbs to approximately 50%.
- 2032: After ten infections, the risk reaches around 78%.
The methodology uses a cumulative risk formula to calculate the likelihood of developing Long COVID over multiple infections, assuming infections occur independently and at a constant risk rate. The model estimates that nearly all children will face Long COVID by age 10 if these infection rates continue, potentially marking a significant long-term health impact for the entire population.
To explore the data and methodology behind these findings, you can view the project and code on GitHub: LC-Risk Estimator.
Recent surges in pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses in the U.S. may be linked to immune system damage from repeated COVID-19 infections and Long COVID (LC). Mycoplasma pneumoniae, a common cause of "walking pneumonia," has sharply increased among children, alongside significant rises in hospitalizations for COVID-19, influenza, and RSV.
Research reveals that LC often weakens immune response, leaving individuals more vulnerable to additional infections. Autoimmune responses triggered by LC can create chronic inflammation, damaging lung and other body tissues. This impaired immunity is thought to be a factor behind severe respiratory outcomes, including recurrent pneumonia, as the immune system becomes less capable of fighting off routine pathogens.
With cumulative COVID exposure, especially in young people, the weakened immune systems may struggle to fend off infections. Preventive health measures and managing LC risks are critical to mitigating these rising respiratory threats.
The urgent need for measures to reduce transmission and manage Long COVID risks as COVID continues to circulate globally.
Stripier_Cape@reddit
And with the orange shit bird back in charge in January, should no fuckery be found out about, the next pandemic is going to absolutely level this country. So disappointed that the Doomsday cult won.
isonfiy@reddit
What about the current one?
Stripier_Cape@reddit
They won't withhold aid in the name of petty partisan politics? Yeah? That's my bare minimum for Trump being worse than Biden.
isonfiy@reddit
No the current pandemic
bleached_bean@reddit
And the lucky ones, such as myself, will have long covid after just one infection. But this happens with any virus. The chance you’ll have long lasting effects after a virus is always a possibility. Hopefully we will now have some treatments in the near future to help those currently suffering and those in the future to prevent it.
MistyMtn421@reddit
Some virus I got when I was 2 (in 1974) almost killed me and they never really knew what it was. They took me to University of WI Madison, spent weeks there till I recovered. I had all kinds of health issues after that. Mainly Asthma, allergies and GI issues.
Then I got mono at 14 and it had me bed bound for 3 months, took a year to "recover" and had new allergies and by the time I was 20 was diagnosed with fibromyalgia (which was wild because in 1992 it was a "new" disease and rarely diagnosed in my age group)
Really bad flu in 2003 and a myriad of health issues after, but most blamed on fibromyalgia. By 2011 was diagnosed with ulcerative colitis and SIBO. Also new allergies so bad I had to close my business and leave my career (was a cosmetologist and had a successful salon. 25 years in the business and was suddenly allergic to everything in the place, called it occupational asthma) and was having allergic reactions so severe I had seizures.
After Covid, I now have 8 food allergies, OAS to all raw fruits and vegetables, allergic to all opioids and Prednisone of all things. They almost killed me in the hospital - I had pneumonia - with a shot of Fentanyl (the amount they would give an infant they said), because they didn't believe me. (The pneumonia was not related to covid at the time.) My reactions became idiopathic and was just diagnosed with the mast cell disorder MCAS.
I don't know if anyone cared to know any of that, but I see so much centered around covid and I just wanted to give real life example of what you were talking about in your comment.
Faceless_Cat@reddit
I have the same thing. I call it long mono. Had it at 17 and have never been the same. I’m 52 now.
MistyMtn421@reddit
Same age too! Maybe an extra special strain that year.
Faceless_Cat@reddit
Do you have kids? Wondering if they are ok. One of mine has similar symptoms but his labs are normal. He was recently diagnosed with elhers danlos disease. So what he has is not from inflammation.
tangled_night_sleep@reddit
Have you and (/u/mistymtn421) ever had any genetic testing done? Maybe you have a /r/MTHFR mutation that makes it harder for your body to detox things.
It’s too complicated for me to explain, as I barely understand it myself.
I haven’t had the testing done yet but my cousin has it and we have similar issues (chronic fatigue, fibro, “long COVID” before it was “cool”).
Now her 16 year daughter is going down the same road we did- GI issues, allergic to everything, picky eater, severe anxiety, unable to focus on schoolwork. So my cousin is going to get her tested to see if it will help with her IEP/special need accommodations at school, and maybe find a genetic counselor or dietitian to help with the MTHFR complication (can be managed w certain vitamins & diet.)
I recently learned there is a lot of MTHFR mutations in families of Sicilian descent, which would explain a lot about my & my coin tube
MistyMtn421@reddit
My kids have IBD lots of allergies and fibro and my daughter was diagnosed with EDS last year. I am even more hypermobile and skin stretchy than she is so I am going to ask about this at my next Dr appointment. In the past at physical therapy I kinda freak them out especially with my age.
Faceless_Cat@reddit
Wow interesting. Are we twins?
2PinaColadaS14EH@reddit
Long Mono is basically Chronic Fatigue Syndrome
Faceless_Cat@reddit
Yes but have you seen what physicians say about CFS and fibromyalgia in the medicine subreddit? They think it is a mental health disorder. I refuse to use those labels because I don’t get taken seriously in medical practices.
Bad-Fantasy@reddit
1000% agree. Stay away from r/askdocs they openly gaslight there as was my experience and I was not even the OP patient/did not consent. Then left a label up to try to humiliate me and I don’t even have those stigmatizing MH conditions. What’s worse is their intent was to maliciously insult me. Mods did fuck all. Protect yourself and stay away from there.
2PinaColadaS14EH@reddit
Yeah. I'm a nurse practitioner and I had long Covid which is mostly better. I was shocked how well descriptions of CFS described what was happening to me. It was like someone knew what was going on in my body and wrote a description of it. So I know it's real. I have found you can't describe alll your symptoms of you are immediately labeled anxious or crazy. Have to focus on the 2-3 worst ones.
Flompulon_80@reddit
Gpt told me this yesterday
Mononucleosis (mono), caused by the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), can lead to several complications and sometimes long-term conditions, though most people recover fully. Here are some diseases and complications that may develop in connection with mono:
Chronic Active EBV Infection: A rare but serious condition where the virus persists and leads to chronic symptoms.
Autoimmune Diseases: EBV has been associated with a higher risk of certain autoimmune diseases, such as:
Multiple sclerosis (MS)
Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE)
Rheumatoid arthritis
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (CFS): Some people may develop prolonged fatigue after mono, resembling chronic fatigue syndrome.
Hodgkin and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma: Although rare, EBV infection has been linked to an increased risk of these cancers, particularly in those with compromised immune systems.
Splenic Rupture: A rare complication during the acute phase of mono, where the spleen enlarges and can rupture.
Hepatitis and Jaundice: Inflammation of the liver and jaundice can occur in severe cases.
Oral Hairy Leukoplakia: White patches on the tongue, more common in immunocompromised individuals, often related to EBV reactivation.
Guillain-Barré Syndrome: A rare neurological disorder that can be triggered by viral infections, including EBV.
While complications are uncommon, they tend to arise in immunocompromised individuals. Most people recover fully from mono without developing long-term health issues.
BobSacamano86@reddit
Have you ever treated your Sibo? I know a lot about Sibo and gut health. I would put money on it that a lot of your symptoms are stemming from that. Sibo causes malabsorption issues. When you have malabsorption issues you lack vitamins and nutrients needed. That can then lead to issues like MCAS, histamine intolerance, food intolerance etc. Once the Sibo has been healed then the small intestine can heal and you will start absorbing the nutrients again and a lot of the symptoms like histamine issues and food intolerance can go away. Most people with Sibo have low stomach acid, low bile flow or their lacking in bile production, and/or slow motility. You need to fix the underlying cause of your Sibo to fully heal which is why antibiotics/antimicrobials fail a lot of the time. Watch these videos to heal your Sibo and get your digestions working again. https://youtu.be/H98DpFNES0M?si=CbTArxu0duvgDKCA
https://youtu.be/Ry4ZgCT686Q?si=E5bc8ukhnTQXRaPC
https://youtu.be/mBdV6ZT9woQ?si=_zp8RjWpMjw_xz7Y
DivaDragon@reddit
Mmmmmm, that all just sounds like fibro, have you tried extra strength Tylenol and yoga? (an /S you can see from space) I also have fibro among several other things. I am so terrified of my kids developing LC because I know intimately how fucking miserable it is to deal with chronic illnesses that Drs just dismiss out of hand.
TechieGottaSoundByte@reddit
Be careful with yoga and fibro - if it works for you, that's great. I get bad flares with even just chair yoga - but unlike my usual flares, these tend to be delayed so I can't tell I'm overdoing it until the next day and then I'm out for a whole week.
My fibromyalgia is mostly in remission now, but yoga can still trigger a flare for me. Corpse pose is literally the only yoga position I know I can handle 😆 and I need modifications even for that one, actually...
zeacliff@reddit
I felt my BP raise when I was scrolling past and saw the word yoga
DivaDragon@reddit
I'm so sorry, I should know better to use a spoiler thing for that word lmao
IsItAnyWander@reddit
Use myriad like you'd use a specific number.
c_galen_b@reddit
Wow, you definitely got the short end of the health stick. I feel for you- I come from the shallow end of the gene pool myself.
Be very careful with your health since you had mono. The Epstein Barr virus that causes mono is classified as a group 1 carcinogen. My whole house came down with mono when my kids were in first grade. We all recovered from it gradually. The mono was bad enough, but my youngest daughter was diagnosed with throat cancer- well, technically it was nasopharyngeal cancer- when she was 20. The biopsies verified that the genetic source of her cancer was Epstein Barr. It's also responsible for a type of stomach cancer and three different lymphomas.
fakeprewarbook@reddit
Prednisone got me FUCKED UP after my covid infection too
spinbutton@reddit
Holy cow, I'm so sorry. That sounds exhausting and terrifying all at the same time
bleached_bean@reddit
I am so sorry you’ve had a lifetime of dealing with post viral diseases and issues. I hope the push for long COVID treatments brings relief for everyone like you who have been dealing with this long before it was in the spotlight or was believed.
MistyMtn421@reddit
Thank you. I'm lucky in a sense that they're manageable, but the fight to get properly diagnosed was the worst. If one more person tries to tell me I'm having a panic attack when it's the beginning of anaphylaxis I may stab them with my extra EpiPen lol.
Like no shit I seem anxious, my body is trying to kill me!!!
BobSacamano86@reddit
What are your symptoms?
bleached_bean@reddit
I’ve been formally diagnosed with POTS and ME/CFS due to mitochondrial dysfunction. So all those symptoms lol
BobSacamano86@reddit
Do you have gi issues like diarrhea or constipation? Acid reflux? Gas, bloating or burping?
bleached_bean@reddit
In the beginning, yes, but I did a lot of gut health stuff to heal it. Acid reflux I have only gotten during really bad flareups. Once the flareup starts to go down, the reflux goes away. My theory is the inflammation in my body explodes causing a ton of issues I don’t normally have. Like every old injury I’ve accrued in life comes back lol it’s crazy. I am going to look at getting a stool test to see if my gut is lacking a certain bacteria. There’s been studies showing COVID killing off certain bacteria’s in the gut. I’m also going to look into SGB
BobSacamano86@reddit
Acid reflux is often a sign of low stomach acid. When we have low stomach acid bacteria then start to grow and thrive in our small intestine where it shouldn’t be. Definitely look into Sibo. You have some sort of dysbiosis going on either in the small intestine or large causing inflammation and malabsorption issues. I had POTS and MCAS but once I started working on healing my gut and getting my digestion working again by upping my stomach acid, getting my bile flowing and motility moving again I started getting better. These videos are what saved me. I had Sibo but none of the classic signs of it like gas or bloating. https://youtu.be/H98DpFNES0M?si=CbTArxu0duvgDKCA
https://youtu.be/Ry4ZgCT686Q?si=E5bc8ukhnTQXRaPC
https://youtu.be/mBdV6ZT9woQ?si=_zp8RjWpMjw_xz7Y
twohammocks@reddit
Vaccination reduces your risk of Long covid - 'In the Delta variant era (defined as June 19 through Dec. 18, 2021), 9.51 out of 100 unvaccinated people were diagnosed with long Covid, compared to 5.34 out of 100 vaccinated people. When the current Omicron era began (Dec. 19, 2021), the gap widened: 7.76 out of 100 unvaccinated people but only 3.5 out of 100 vaccinated people acquired long Covid.' Vaccine slashes chance of long Covid, says study, but risk remains https://www.statnews.com/2024/07/17/long-covid-risk-reduced-by-vaccination-coronavirus-nejm-study1182483/
'The cumulative global incidence of long COVID is around 400 million individuals, which is estimated to have an annual economic impact of approximately $1 trillion—equivalent to about 1% of the global economy.' Long COVID science, research and policy | Nature Medicine https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03173-6
TechieGottaSoundByte@reddit
Vaccination is one of the few ways to reduce long COVID risk, other than avoiding COVID (which is ideal but, for most of us, unrealistic)
Which sucks for the members of the LC community whose LC doesn't respond well to COVID vaccination. They seem to be a minority, but a significant minority that deserves recognition and care.
Hopefully we'll find other ways to reduce the risk of developing LC that are accessible to those who didn't tolerate vaccination, and so the rest of us have even more protections available. But that won't happen if we don't fund continuing LC research.
twohammocks@reddit
exactly. and if H5N1 does go H2H, and things might go that way, we will need to keep investing $$$ in health research so we are better prepared when it does.
Somebody needs to get Trump with the program on climate change or this will happen - world economic forum
Climate change and Health impacts by 2050: 14.5 million deaths, 12.5 trillion in economic losses https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Quantifying_the_Impact_of_Climate_Change_on_Human_Health_2024.pdf
If trump/elon cares about his Republican base he will get prepared on that too. Or he will lose his beloved red states to fire or the ocean.
bleached_bean@reddit
I was double vaxxed a year before getting covid and long covid.
twohammocks@reddit
I guess you didn't read the articles I posted. Getting vaxxed reduces your risk significantly.
loralailoralai@reddit
A year kinda doesn’t count.
marchcrow@reddit
Sure. Technically accurate. But this statement obscures the fact that the rates are higher with COVID than pretty much any other disease we've studied so far. This is not something to handwave.
bleached_bean@reddit
Who is “hand waving”? I literally am a long covid sufferer who has been disabled by it. I’m trying to let people know that all viruses have this possibility and Covid actually reactivates or wakes up past viruses you’ve had.
kdx6@reddit
i just learned this from a nurse-- i never knew viruses in general can cause unexpected and permanent changes to your body!!
bleached_bean@reddit
The body is insane in a good way and bad way lol Many of those with long covid get tested for Epstein-Barr virus. They’ve found that covid can “wake up” past viruses you’ve had previously. Mono, chicken pox, etc.
spinbutton@reddit
Oh great...holy smoke viruses are motherfuckers
caveatlector73@reddit
EBV for those who are not aware is the virus that gives you mono. Lots of viruses fly under the radar. HHV-6 doesn't really cause horrible diseases per se, but it is the medical equivalent of pouring gasoline by the gallon on an already raging inferno.
In other news, don't mess around with ticks. Their carriers are on the move because of climate disruption. They can infect you with both viruses and bacteria. Two for one. And don't let anyone tell you you haven't been bitten by a tick if you don't have a bulls eye rash. That is so 1980s misinformation.
Long covid and other similar diseases have not only a personal cost, but a high socio-economic cost as well.
Hope1995x@reddit
I lost my sense of smell for certain aromas. I'm not sure if it's linked to Covid.
I can't smell roses anymore. Strong smells like cinnamon sage or frankincense I can smell. But I become nose blind to them quickly until I walk back into the room, and it's just very faint.
I think there is probably permanent damage to some people's sense of smell and taste. 2 years later, yeah, it's probably permanent.
Flompulon_80@reddit
Mother is same
caveatlector73@reddit
I found out COVID, which I got two weeks before I could get a vaccine, gave me facial blindness. I no longer recognize friends easily if the setting is unfamiliar. My sense of taste and smell are fine if a little better than previously. All depends on where the virus attacks the body.
ObscureSaint@reddit
One of my coworkers lost her sense of smell almost entirely in the summer of 2020. Her sense of smell came back in 2023 when she had covid for the second time. Shit's wild.
_WeAreFucked_@reddit
I get that but nearly every child!? C’mon man, that shit ain’t normal and given all the bullshit surrounding Covid. Sus. But here we are. FML
Wrong_Confection_305@reddit
Ya, I have friends in the same boat. Omega 3 and vitamin d to deal with the chronic inflammation seem to provide some benefit. Hopefully new drugs are around the corner.
Old_Art7622@reddit
It is not luck...the risk of LC is the highest with the initial infection. Most people who get LC get it on their first and many got it with pre-Omicron variants. LC post-Omicron tends to be milder and resolves faster for many.
minecraftsteve696@reddit
Yes retard, but 37% after a third one is still huge. I was fine with zero masking an barerly vaccinated for 4 straight years of covid, and then 6 months ago it went from 0 to 10 and i have long covid with anhedonia and other bullshit. You will get long covid suddenly at some point and by that point it will be too late
Old_Art7622@reddit
There is not a 37% chance of LC after the third infection. As I've mentioned in other replies, these studies have huge selection bias and likely simply show that those with LC were more likely to have been infected early on...and thus, had more time to get reinfected.
Data shows LC rates have not been increasing and actually declined since 2022.
minecraftsteve696@reddit
Well fuck if some random redditor noticed this potential factor that needs to be considered, then im pretty sure theres a study by now that took it into account, and it turned out to conclude exactly as you say. Just provide a link to it please
bleached_bean@reddit
Omnicron first hit in Nov 2021. Every strain since then is a subvariant of it.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Yes, I know. And the risk was greater pre-Omicron. However, LC rates have declined further since 2022
CurrentBias@reddit
Curious lack of references you have there
TigerLilyLindsay@reddit
I was one of those lucky ones too. I got long covid after my first and only covid infection - that occurred in December 2019 (when covid "wasn't even in my country yet"). However, because of how badly I was affected by my first and only covid infection, I have taken covid seriously since the very beginning (and so has my immediate family, covid almost killed me). We have made a lot of sacrifices to protect ourselves from covid, but it was well worth it, especially seeing how sick so many around us are and continue to be sick all the time, this isn't normal! Seeing the illnesses in my daughter's class is absolutely heartbreaking (and we do online learning, so these kids aren't even going to in-person school where children are constantly sick every single year).
TeacherManCT@reddit
I’ve had Covid three times.
The first time in 2020 left me with 1-2mm scar nodules in my lungs and my lung capacity is diminished.
BirdsSpyOnUs@reddit
How did you find this out? Since getting covid 3x , every time ive noticed my lungs feeling like im not getting a big enough breathe. I actually was out buying "lung detox herbs" to add to my tea collection and drink daily last night its gotten so bothersome. Every single day i think abour how my lungs feel different and it worries me. Im only 29! Amazing shape and eat no processed food, all healthy green no seed oils i supplement every vitamin and deficiency plus some.
tangled_night_sleep@reddit
Have you ever tried NAC?
TeacherManCT@reddit
I went to a pulmonologist. They did an MRI after a lung assessment. I have had Covid twice since and it hasn’t been that bad. I used to be a runner but I can’t anymore. My lungs just can’t do it.
iso-all@reddit
I've had it at least four times... no long term issues that I know of.
/knocks on wood
attilathehunn@reddit
Woah. Don't get Covid again
Fickle-Pride-2872@reddit
This only makes sense if you take random % into account. People who get LC are usually the same type/kind of people. So the % you get it is totally dependent on this. Actually, I could meet the parents for lets say 1 hour, ask specific questions and know whether or not their child could get long covid or not, so this 'research' is completely irrelevant.
Specialist_Fault8380@reddit
Are 25% of US Marines (median age 18 years old) those kinds of people?
Fickle-Pride-2872@reddit
Yeah, suppressed emotions, do what they're told 'for pride', a lot of childhood trauma (why otherwise prove yourself in the Marines). They fit the bill perfectly.
coconutsndaisies@reddit
wtf does this even mean
Fickle-Pride-2872@reddit
That "After ten infections, the risk reaches around 78%." makes absolutely no sense. I can guarantee you that certain people could have covid 100 times and be fine.
coconutsndaisies@reddit
i got it after my third infection but i only got infected multiple times after i got vaccinated. so do with that what you will
Fickle-Pride-2872@reddit
I just think this disease is very misunderstood. There are several triggers that make similar symptoms happen: Whiplash, lyme, EBV, Q-fever, SARS, concussion and more. My conclusion is that covid is only a trigger for other processes in the brain. If people are sensitive to this (how they are sensitive is a totally different subject) they can get 'long covid'.
MkBr2@reddit
Meh, I had Covid twice now, and there are no appreciable long term effects. Frankly, I’ve had worse hangovers
ninjaluvr@reddit
Yeah, so you haven't had long COVID and your anecdote has no relevance to the discussion.
MkBr2@reddit
Maybe don’t be such a puss about Covid shrug
Wiscone1@reddit
So sick of hearing about Covid no one gives a shit it’s the flu take ivermectin
brellhell@reddit
We all have credit card amount of plastic floating in our ball sack. Long covid is the least of my worries.
westonriebe@reddit
I still dont understand long covid… is it brain damage or dna damage? Like how could a non existent virus cause damage still… obviously if there’s complications from covid it could damage but from what i see the virus is eliminated from the body, and it doesnt persist in the body like other viruses…
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
there is evidence it can damage virtually every organ, and even persist in bone marrow. One reason for that is the abundance of certain cell receptors that the virus uses to enter the cell, its a very common type in mammal cells
virus literally breaks down your DNA and reuses the parts to replicate itself, so by definition it does DNA damage.
virtually all viruses that infect human cells are actually bad for you. only good ones are mostly in the gut and don't really infect your cells but rather other microbes in the gut
westonriebe@reddit
Persist in bone marrow! That’s absolutely crazy… i feel crazy saying it but this has to be engineered… everything about it seams like it, its country of origin doesnt help either…
isonfiy@reddit
What does it matter if it’s engineered?
westonriebe@reddit
It could be engineered in ways to make us sick for years instead of weeks… it could hurt some demographics more than others… im no doctor but engineered is always going to be more harmful than what nature will do because in nature all it wants to do is spread…
isonfiy@reddit
Ok say it’s engineered. What do you do differently than if it wasn’t?
_Marat@reddit
Execute those responsible for engineering it for one. Stop treating a biological weapon like an inevitability of modern society.
isonfiy@reddit
Anything you should do to protect yourself or what? Just get it over and over again?
Specialist_Fault8380@reddit
I don’t know where you got the idea that it doesn’t persist in the body. In fact, a lot of studies are showing that it does and that plus inflammation are some of the key issues.
tommydeininger@reddit
One word : inflammation. Of the systemic variety
westonriebe@reddit
This i understand, this definitely doesnt seem like a run of the mill virus…
westonriebe@reddit
*non existent in the body, after infection
coconutsndaisies@reddit
it does persist in the body.
RiffRaff028@reddit
We're coming up on five years since the initial outbreak, and both my wife and I have caught Covid once. I think their estimate of once per year is high.
ScorpioRisingLilith@reddit
It’s not high if you live in a high population area and work with the public which most people do.
Audere1@reddit
I think my wife and I had it twice each. I know people who've never had it. I really wonder where they got their data on that, as it seems to catastrophize. Study suggests reinfections from the virus that causes COVID-19 likely have similar severity as original infection | NHLBI, NIH suggests rather few people are infected more than twice
Forsaken_Bison_8623@reddit
According to the Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative run by Dr Michael Hoerger, this was the status as of March 2024 (at exactly 4 years): https://x.com/michael_hoerger/status/1767777970028961844
3.5 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. so far
7.3 cumulative infections per person on average in the U.S. in four years, IF transmission continues according to the status quo of the linear trend
Four Years Into the Pandemic: Looking Back, Looking Forward
At the 4-year anniversary of the WHO Pandemic Declaration, the U.S. has seen an average of 3.5 cumulative infections per person (bold blue line), with a credible interval of 2.5 to 4.0 cumulative infections per person on average (other bold lines). A linear projection suggests that IF infections continue at the current rate, in 4 years the U.S. will reach an average of 7.3 cumulative infections per person, with a credible interval of 5.1 to 8.4 cumulative infections (dotted lines).
Audere1@reddit
altxrtr@reddit
If you are someone with a job with the public who leaves the house regularly, you have been infected more than once. So either you and your wife are hermits or you have had undetected infections, imo.
RiffRaff028@reddit
That's a bold statement. You have some kind of data on which you are basing this assertion, or am I just supposed to value your opinion? We're not hermits, for the record.
Audere1@reddit
Nobody will post data supporting anything close to yearly COVID infections for 100% of the population, from what I've seen
minecraftsteve696@reddit
Holy shit. Just google it my guy
Audere1@reddit
I did my guy. I got a bunch of news reports and a couple real sources of data that... don't support this claim at all.
reality72@reddit
Do you work from home?
RiffRaff028@reddit
Maybe once or twice a week. The rest of the time I'm either in the office or traveling for work.
altxrtr@reddit
This is my opinion as stated in the comment. I formed it using common sense!
RiffRaff028@reddit
Ah. That explains it then. Thank you.
altxrtr@reddit
YW!
Old_Art7622@reddit
You have no proof for that.
AccountForDoingWORK@reddit
We’re hermits and we almost had an undetected infection - we were shielding but made one calculated risk and ended up catching COVID from it. The best part is I was doing work relating to COVID at the time and knew to watch for it and why and I still almost missed it.
We had the mildest infections ever and I would basically call myself asymptomatic - I had a throat tickle but we tested to be sure (all negative). A few days later we had to test again to participate in a specific activity and that was when we popped positive - but it wasn’t because we were feeling particularly bad.
softsnowfall@reddit
It is not high. If anything it is low with these newer variants and how case levels stay high month after month.
The ten-month-old of a relative of mine has had covid twice already.
Also, a covid infection might be asymptomatic or have mild presenting symptoms that mimic bad allergies etc. If people aren’t wearing kf94 or n95 types of masks and etc precautions, they’ve likely had covid multiple times. The problem is that longterm DAMAGE from covid and LC risk will happen even with asymptomatic cases. Also, Vaccines/boosters REDUCE risk of severe initial illness, REDUCE LC risk, etc but don’t make it zero.
Old_Art7622@reddit
"The problem is that longterm DAMAGE from covid and LC risk will happen even with asymptomatic cases."
This is false. Asymptomatic cases are not zero risk (they are very low risk) but it is not a guarantee of long-term damage. The greater the severity of infection, the greater the risk.
Case levels do not remain high month after month. In the US, there are currently about two waves a year...with about 20% of the population being infected each wave. On average, infections occur once every 18 months (this means half will catch it less often and half will catch it more often). This based on wastewater modelling by JPWeiland on Twitter/X
minecraftsteve696@reddit
Are you braindead? How can you state this shit when its been studies so much and the results are consistent? You can have a weakenes immune system, which makes your symptoms weaker/unnoticable, but its a tually a very bad thing
Old_Art7622@reddit
There is no evidence for this. Having a weaker immune system increases the risk of severe outcomes, not the opposite. Mild symptoms means your immune system is able to fight off the virus without working as hard
Audere1@reddit
Is there some sort of study or data supporting the position?
watchnlearning@reddit
Literally 100s
Audere1@reddit
Do tell. I would practically skip if somebody here cited a study saying the average time between COVID infections for the entire population is once a year
minecraftsteve696@reddit
I hate that cdc doesnt force this information down everybodys throat every single day since covid: SYMPTOMS ARE ONLY THERE IF YOU IMMUNE SYSTEM IS WORKING, SO ITS A GOOD THING. You can have had your immune system damaged from covid (it does exactly that often), so your next infection might be desteoying your body in really bad ways, but you wont even feel any difference, because internal damage to the body rarely does, until it reaches breaking point. Flu-like symptoms can be completely lacking even when you have covid actively destroying you
Wondercat87@reddit
They're talking about kids up to age 10. Kids get sick all the time. Generally, most adults at least have had time to develop immunity to some things. Kids can too, but this is hitting them at a key time period.
Not to mention kids being in close contact through school.
I know people who have had COVID multiple times. Yet I've never had it. But I know I'm one of the fortunate ones.
watchnlearning@reddit
You have no idea as 30-50% asymptomatic infections
And once a year is actually cautious
Source - not just vibes and my personal experience
sg92i@reddit
You have to remember they're talking about school children, not adults. Children are super good at spreading all kinds of diseases amongst each other and you have parents that will intentionally send their sick kids to school because they either 1- see school as free daycare and want to get rid of the kid for a few hours or 2- don't want to/can't pay for daycare, or 3- can't get time off of work to deal with the kid being sick.
I can totally understand kids getting COVID more than once per year, getting it at daycares & schools.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
Totally depends on the person. Personally I count the time from 2022, when most places ended mitigations.
Where I work, I know people who have had it 5+ times. But I know its possible some have still avoided it, but occupation plays a huge role in your risk imo
thesky_watchesyou@reddit
Yep, I'm a teacher and I've had it three times in the last year and a half.
Royal_Ordinary6369@reddit
This is for children… different exposures and behaviours than two adults with your routines
elksatchel@reddit
There are always outliers. With consistent mild precautions (and stronger precautions during surges) and me working from home, it's the same for my partner and I. But friends with kids or with public-facing jobs have caught covid multiple times, that they know of. Add in asymptomatic cases and an average of one yearly infection honestly feels low.
pr2thej@reddit
Let's hope their sample size was bigger than 2
cogswellcogg@reddit
Did they mention number of vaccinations the kids received
Millennial_on_laptop@reddit
Separate study, but:
cogswellcogg@reddit
1:50:47 Attorney Thomas Renz.. maybe not
c_galen_b@reddit
Man, that makes sense, but it really sucks to be me. My daughter is a nurse- she's had five confirmed infections and we suspect one or two more before tests were available. I got long covid on my fourth infection. That one was definitely the worst. The problem is that I can't reasonably avoid covid because of Jill's constant exposure.
So if every ten year old is going to have long covid, what is that going to look like? I had a residual cough and exhaustion from the first infection, the next two were basically just inconvenient like a flu, the fourth was the whole nine yards. Horrific cough, exhaustion, dizzy spells, high fevers, delirium, hallucinations, muscle and joint pain, cognitive and memory issues, and panic attacks. How could a kid cope with that? It's tantamount to a lifetime disability. That's pretty horrifying- an entire generation of kids disabled for a couple of years to permanently? I really hope this study is wrong.
isonfiy@reddit
What if she wore an N95 at work?
c_galen_b@reddit
She's worn every type of mask she could find. She is immune compromised, so it was always more risky for her.
The problem was that there were never enough PPE supplies, particularly in the beginning. Masks, gloves, gowns, antibacterial lotion- most of the staff eventually gave up and bought their own. KN95 were the best, but in practice, they often fell back to paper masks because they couldn't get them.
isonfiy@reddit
Oh well just gotta get covid over and over again I guess!
Idk I work too and hate wearing a mask all the time but I really worked hard to figure it out so I wouldn’t get covid over and over again. Adapt or perish kind of thing.
Ineedmoneyyyyyyyy@reddit
How is this pepper intel. The fuck I’m supposed to do with this?
isonfiy@reddit
You should probably protect yourself by wearing a respirator
SunriseInLot42@reddit
Hide under your bed forever, apparently
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
um... prep for healthcare collapse and likely personnel shortages in the long term.
estimates could easily put a billion people with longcovid already
011010-@reddit
This sucks so much. I never had long COVID, but when I had it last year I got altered smell (parosmia) and brain fog. So I got the neurological shit going for the first time.
Always fun waiting and wondering if it will subside or become long COVID. I was lucky that time (infection #2 for me). I’m a scientist and during that time I felt so stupid. There’s no way I could perform in that condition.
isonfiy@reddit
Did you change your behaviour in any way to prevent a future infection?
Natural_Clock4585@reddit
Brought to you by the people who said we would all have HIV by 1994.
PateoMantoja@reddit
Last I read, like 90% of "long covid" cases were middle aged housewives
SunriseInLot42@reddit
It’s weird how 90% of “long Covid” cases are exactly who you think they’d be
PateoMantoja@reddit
Yup. Neurotic housewives
SunriseInLot42@reddit
And terminally-online basement-dwellers who haven’t seen the sun in years and are still mad that the rest of the world wasn’t locked away at home forever, so they use “long Covid” as an excuse to stay home just like they were doing for years before Covid anyways
PateoMantoja@reddit
Agreed
Blarghnog@reddit
The claim that “nearly every child could have Long COVID by age 10” relies on some shaky assumptions. First, it treats each infection as carrying a fixed 13% Long COVID risk, but actual rates in kids are lower and vary widely. Plus, kids who do get Long COVID tend to recover more quickly than adults.
The model also assumes an unrealistic, annual reinfection rate and that risks simply add up each time. In reality, immune memory builds over time, and reinfections tend to be milder, which would likely lower the chances of Long COVID.
While Long COVID is real and concerning, there’s no solid evidence showing that repeated COVID infections will seriously weaken the immune systems of most kids. A more balanced view suggests that immunity grows over time and that population-wide health isn’t on a straight path toward cumulative risk as this model suggests.
It’s still a risk, but this makes it sound substantially worse than the science actually suggests it is.
watchnlearning@reddit
Just because you dont want it to be true doesn't mean it is not true. You've said 5 incorrect things in just a few paras.
Why are people willing to risk 10-20%?
Most people have had several infections. That's 40% risk
A more SCIENTIFIC view is that immunity does not at all grow over time and each infection does cumulative damage. This is widely understood by people who care and read science.
I have tried to tell people for 2 years that the majority of population will have long covid of varying degrees in 5 years. There is ample data you can use instead of vibes and govt narrative
Old_Art7622@reddit
Every single thing you just wrote is incorrect. This is likely due to scientific illiteracy on your part. Arguing with covid doomers is like going in circles.
The risk of LC is less than 10-20%. Those are old estimates that come from studies with no control groups.
It is nowhere near a 40% risk...40% of people do not have LC. In fact, the LC rates have DECLINED since 2022 and have remained stable in 2023-2024.
There is no science that supports the idea of cumulative damage with covid infections.
You can tell people that all you want, it does not make it true. You people were claiming that most people will have LC in 2-3 years, all the way back in 2022...and when that doesn't happen, you just keep pushing the date
attilathehunn@reddit
This paper has long covid cases exploding https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03173-6
See Fig. 2: Estimated global cumulative incidence of long COVID.
It's not hard to see why: covid continues to circulate, each infection has a chance of causing long covid. Such people generally don't recover. So their numbers only go up. 400 million people worldwide at the end of 2023 according to that paper
Old_Art7622@reddit
Most LC is not permanent and this is another garbage paper based on Al-Aly studies using the VA cohort
watchnlearning@reddit
Oh and the new evidence keeps coming. Such as the damn recent one shared by OP
Good luck with your prepping bud. Enjoy some raw milk
Old_Art7622@reddit
I am not prepping...I am correcting covid misinformation. The papers posted by the OP are self-reported survey studies with selection bias, as I've mentioned in many other replies
attilathehunn@reddit
Just as feedback, it's not very convincing your "correcting" if it's just based on straight-up denial, saying like "no it's not"
watchnlearning@reddit
You ARE covid misinformation
Interesting stage of discourse. Not outright denial. Cherry picked facts that support the government and mainstream narrative. Im sure they are grateful you do it for free
Old_Art7622@reddit
"government and mainstream narrative"
Oh...so the entire world is in on some giant conspiracy? You sound like a conspiracy theorist.
watchnlearning@reddit
Im not you people. It's likely the most studied virus in history. There are no recent studies that state long covid risk is less than 10%
Multiple studies show 10% plus per infection If you think this is ok or manageable on a societal scale you are either cruel, ignorant, do not understand the economy or fragility of healthcare... and that's even if just 10% of those are serious LC
Whether you want vast anecdotal evidence or research it's all out there.
Im sure the veterans experiencing long covid appreciate your disdain for that particular massive study.
winesponioni@reddit
Science is not something that is ever settled and proclaiming any nuanced issue as undisputed fact is ignorance at best.
watchnlearning@reddit
Yeah I was working on climate activism for 20 years. Which is why I was too busy to prepare myself. Im familiar with this "argument"
It worked out well hey?
The evidence for incredibly harmful long term societal damage and destroying children's health for life is pretty damn overwhelming
You wanna deny it cos there might be mild convenience involved or you might have to consider collective good?
Go off babe
I'll mute this sub for a while. So many people who think they are good planners, forward thinkers. Cute
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
totally false
Blarghnog@reddit
The risk model from the INSPQ uses a base risk of 13% for developing Long COVID after each infection. It employs a cumulative risk approach, which suggests that with each subsequent infection, the risk compounds. Essentially, if someone has multiple infections, the probability of experiencing Long COVID increases cumulatively, not just by a fixed percentage each time.
Not false. But you don’t care.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
That wasn’t the point of my response did you actually verify the math? If you see issues, feel free to fix it; the code is up on GitHub. https://github.com/TheMemeticist/LC-Risk-Estimator/tree/main
nothing5901568@reddit
Respectfully that estimate is absurd. If that were true, the prevalence of long COVID would already be much higher than it is, since most people have already been infected multiple times. In addition, long COVID isn't permanent in most people.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
um source? do you go around to peoples houses with a longcovid detector? how the f-ck do you know people don't have it?
nothing5901568@reddit
Published stats homey, you should try Google. The prevalence of long COVID in the US and Canada is something like 3.4% and most of that is from the initial strains that were more severe. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/databriefs/db480.htm
attilathehunn@reddit
That stat is based on self-diagnosis. IE asking people. Its gonna miss all those who don't realize their weird synonyms they've been dealing with for months were caused by covid
Also it's from 2022. Covid continues to circulate giving new people long covid all the time
nothing5901568@reddit
It's probably an overestimate actually, because people sometimes attribute feeling bad to COVID when there's actually something else going on. The better studies control for this
attilathehunn@reddit
There's studies finding that catching covid lowers people's IQ scores but those people don't realize it. They don't self-identity as having long covid https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2311330
SunriseInLot42@reddit
Or it’s a wastebasket diagnosis that’s going to pick up everyone with garden-variety anxiety, hypochondria, and depression, as well as regular old terminally-online basement-dwelling shut-ins and all sorts of other people who are just in generally shitty shape.
If you log off of Reddit/Twitter and go outside to touch grass and interact with real people, your risk of “long Covid” is dramatically reduced
attilathehunn@reddit
Nah long covid has blood tests now, or things like cardiac MRIs, tilt table test, VQ Scan which often show abnormal results depending on the patient
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
Sorry I'm not American, I refer to these stats.
Source: Institut national de santé publique du Québec
Increased Risk with Re-infections
Silver-Honkler@reddit
People laughed at me for saying this virus was airborne cancer AIDS just like the October 2019 whistleblowers said.
Now everyone has immune deficiencies and strange cancers are popping up but I'm still the madman.
SunriseInLot42@reddit
They’re still laughing at you
tommydeininger@reddit
We can scream from the rooftops but whoever was ever going to listen or dedicate the time for the complex reasoning and independent research it takes to realize that it's not what the mainstream narrative suggests have mostly figured it out by now
Aa280418@reddit
Moderna recently published a study that said by your third COVID infection you have a 50% chance of developing long COVID. So like we continue living pretending it doesn’t exist until we’re all disabled and die extremely young or?
Old_Art7622@reddit
That is not true. Moderna is using the same inaccurate stat from the StatsCan report. It is very irresponsible of them. They are going with a fear campaign on covid to try an increase vaccine uptake, which is very low
Specialist_Fault8380@reddit
This is absolutely not true. The Canadian government is barely offering or promoting vaccines, ordering them months too late to be effective, and has dropped the only safe vaccine option for immunocompromised people. They also are no longer covering Paxlovid. We are on our own.
tommydeininger@reddit
Depends on what is viewed as irresponsible. They are a corporation, no? Profits > people. No pharmaceutical company should be corporate. Just breeds social irresponsibility.
LowChain2633@reddit
Is this from an article? If so can you link to it?
I want to show my boyfriend this, especially because we have a 10 year old who he wont let me vaccinate for covid, but he won't read or believe it if it comes from reddit (he's a moron, i know). If you could put this on substack you would have greater reach.
tommydeininger@reddit
Sounds like you have a smart boyfriend. I know of no unvaccinated individuals with long COVID, and nearly every single covid vaxxed person i know has 2 + major medical problems
Specialist_Fault8380@reddit
Your anecdotes directly contradict every study on Covid outcomes for vaccinated vs unvaccinated individuals.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
its from two studies by the Canadian govt, links can be found: https://github.com/TheMemeticist/LC-Risk-Estimator/tree/main
geoshoegaze20@reddit
What is the source about the recent surges of respiratory illnesses in the U.S.? I'm curious, because for the past 2 months we have been getting ravaged in Iowa. We had some respiratory illness that decimated us in mid-Sept. Another one hit us mid-October, and we are now sick again. This might be the worse flu/cold/Covid season I've ever seen in my life, and I'm approaching 40.
Specialist_Fault8380@reddit
It’s everywhere. Canada, States, Europe, etc.
tommydeininger@reddit
How have your skies looked recently? Noticed any particular increase in radio frequency induced cloud formation and/or what tptb try to pass off as contrails?
Commandmanda@reddit
It's not just influenza, colds, and Covid. It's parainfluenza, community spread pneumonia, RSV, and a host of rotaviruses that used to be fairly benign, but are now too much for damaged lungs and immune systems that have been ravaged by Covid.
Think of the respiratory system (lungs) like a somewhat deflated balloon. You can poke at them with a pin, and see no appreciable difference, but: poke it too many times, and it begins to deflate.
Then add in the immune system, and poke holes in it for every virus that comes along. Pretty soon, it deflates too, because there's just too much to fight. They go haywire, and the immune system begins to attack the body.
Top it off with systematic attacks upon the vital organs, and you get chronically sick individuals with a compromised immune system.
I work in urgent care. The seniors in my area 50 and above are facing very serious if not fatal infections while they also have Chronic COPD. You should hear them coughing while on O2. Pretty soon there will be very few people over the age of 60 in this country, and as the 50-somethings attain full seniorhood, they will fall prey to it too.
This is why new guidelines for vaccination against RSV, Pneumonia, Shingles (Chicken Pox) and Flu are taking place. Seniors who are unvaccinated against the onslaught of these illnesses will probably die of them, in addition to Covid.
PS: The advent of insurance owned hospitals is causing absolute chaos in the medical community. With sicknesses on the rise and GPs telling sick people to go to urgent care (where they are transferred to the ER, which is chronically overloaded) the overall outlook for the medical system is eventual collapse. The stockholders will walk away with billions, while communities suffer.
BucktoothedAvenger@reddit
True. What this article doesn't talk about, though, is that the genomes of every living thing are first corrupted by viruses, then they kind of just exist with us after a few thousand years, then finally, they become a permanent part of what we are.
Everyone here is carrying genes from viruses caught by our ancestors. That includes our non-human ancestors.
So, while it will suck, this part of existing is normal and unavoidable. The good news: Each long-Covid kid who grows up and has kids of their own are literally making the long-term cure for COVID.
Their kids will be born with the code. Their grandkids, too.
lukaskywalker@reddit
Sadly we as a society don’t care about Covid anymore. So there is no way to protect yourself really. Unless you go full hermit
BallsOfStonk@reddit
Good thing the U.S. just elected someone who will fund and support scientific research to help the world avoid this fate.
Zealousideal-Plum823@reddit
I need to stop getting COVID. I've had it 10 times! And I've had Long COVID twice. Incredibly, I don't currently have LC. I have no idea what the future holds if I keep rolling these dice. The odds aren't good. Where's the One and Done treatment/vaccine?
tommydeininger@reddit
Hint : it doesn't come in the form of an internally applied substance or shot. It's gonna be a lot more involved than any one of us truly realize. But, while I believe most are ready and able as individuals, we're going to have to face some hard to accept truths in order to come together as one unstoppable force capable of stopping this and upcoming worse things to be released upon us. And the longer we wait to accept what needs to be done, the weaker we will be as a people. This can be remedied in a weekend folks. Can put a stop to this for good. Do your research.
Training-Earth-9780@reddit
How long did LC last for you both times?
Zealousideal-Plum823@reddit
I had LC for 14 months in 2020/2021 and just over 7 months in 2023. The LC in 2023 was much, much worse, with many trips to the ER, Urgent Care, doctors, and specialists.
Training-Earth-9780@reddit
How did you get better the second time? Do you have any lingering effects?
attilathehunn@reddit
Will be years until then, if it ever happens.
For now wear an N95 or FFP3 mask. See r/masks4all
ParksNet30@reddit
Is COVID an ethnic bioweapon?
tommydeininger@reddit
Not ethnic, not racist. Nor is it homophobic. Classist. This is a term every human should become intimately familiar with. So much so that you can discard all the previously mentioned -ists and -ics
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
I'm sure it's not the safe and effective vaccine that 82% of the country has now got right? Didn't they say it was going to stop us from getting covid? Oh not anymore? Better get your 8th booster.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
whats in the jab that's so bad for the human body?
tommydeininger@reddit
I think it's like a hot dog. If we knew what was in it, it would cease to exist.
coconutsndaisies@reddit
people became disabled after the jab too. i know my symptoms started right after 🤷🏻♀️
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
Can you please tell me when before in history have we used mRNA technology? Especially on such a mass scale?
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
again what's so bad about it that it would caused long covid?
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
Can you link to a single long term study for any of these covid "vaccines"?
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
so you are just saying "jabs bad", thanks jabjak
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
So great evidence there. Shouldn't you have this type of information before injecting the drug into hundreds of millions of humans? Oh no? You like being a guinea pig and then defending your masters? xD
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
yeah because billions of people catching a random bat virus repeatedly isn't experimental? lmao
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
Why are you so defensive of the experimental jabs? You can't even provide me a link to a long term safety test.
Can you tell me why covid is causing long covid? OH YOU CAN'T? But I'm supposed to tell you exactly why the jab is? Hypocrisy much?
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
how many rubbles do they pay you?
Neat_Concert_4138@reddit
How many jabs are you up to? How many times have you got covid?
LeftSpite3410@reddit
Still furious to this day that I was forced to get it or drop out of school. It’s been a few years at least
tommydeininger@reddit
Long COVID=long cancer
Significant_Fact_660@reddit
Stop jabbing your kids!
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
What exactly is long covid, and how serious is it really?
I've never met anybody with long covid. Obviously, that doesn't mean it isn't real or anything. It just seems strange to me that we are talking about some debilitating situation that might impact nearly every child in the next few years, but nobody i know has ever actually had it.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
you've definitely met someone with LC before, but it does vary in severity from mild brain fog to being bedridden. For example here is a youtuberr who has had their career derailed basically. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vydgkCCXbTA
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
Right, that makes sense. I should've rephrased. I've never met anybody i knew with long covid.
I guess based on my personal experience, it just doesn't feel that serious. Perhaps some people are bedridden, but I've never met, or heard about in my social circles, a single person who was disabled by covid.
Top-Frosting-1960@reddit
I have three friends who are disabled by long COVID. Plus my mom, who has gotten disabling chronic migraines since her first COVID infection.
coconutsndaisies@reddit
how would u meet them if they’re bedridden
DuchessOfCarnage@reddit
I personally know people impacted, but it took awhile for them to open up to me about what it was. I think with how COVID was politicized a lot of people don't want to say they have it, and then face an argument about how it's all made up and it's just a cold. But they're sleeping 12 hours a night and taking a nap in their car at lunch, and have to triple check their work for accuracy when before it was correct off the bat.
Do you know people who have dropped commitments, made more errors, experienced worse drivers and ruder public interactions? The seed that started each of those worse outcomes could have been LC. A lot of local clubs/orgs of mine have had a lot smaller planning groups, weirdly overachieving women seem to have been hit harder? I don't know if it's because people who run marathons know their usual strength and notice the difference, or if one person who's the bedrock of a community is more noticeable when they're not able to help, but it's really interesting!
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
I see what you're getting at. The world has changed since covid. I don't doubt that some people are physically changed by covid, but I think it is a stretch to attribute all the minute ways we've changed to long covid. Even if you could prove that we are organising things less, or other similar issues (for the record I have noticed this too), you can't prove it's due to covid and not other systemic cultural changes.
SunriseInLot42@reddit
The greatest risk factors for long Covid appear to be being ridden with anxiety, being terminally-online, and being deeply antisocial. People who log off and touch grass every now and then seem to somehow be at vastly lower risk
bigjonxmas@reddit
China playing the long game and we’re worried about a presidential election
Hobbit_Holes@reddit
If anyone would like to drink the blood of my household just let me know. Not a single one of us has had covid to date.
coconutsndaisies@reddit
i might
Hall-of-Stag@reddit
It’s amazing we can now hear important information such as this. During and the several years following the outbreak, that kind of talk could cost you your job, being socially excommunicated, physically attacked, unable to attend college, the list goes on. “Science” is rarely settled when the “science” rests upon emotions and ideology.
Wrong_Confection_305@reddit
I remember being told kids were not a major vector for covid transmission. On its face, this was laughable even at the time.
drank_myself_sober@reddit
Yep, not a vector. Can confirm that the cough my little one had twice only turned into Covid for my wife and I. He just had a cough.
Second time nearly hospitalized me and it took 6 weeks to recover.
Icy_Sheepherder493@reddit
I left teaching in Canada because all the staff were « Okay » with children having Covid and coming in. Saying « It’s a common cold and everyone will get it anyways. »
Wytch78@reddit
I’m a teacher and have had Covid 4 times. (Yes I have long covid, and can only work part-time.)
Sas4455@reddit
Do you wear a mask at work and have ventilation?
reality72@reddit
“It’S jUsT tHe FlU bRo”
Old_Art7622@reddit
Ever heard of Long Flu? https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20231219/more-evidence-suggests-that-long-flu-is-a-thing
And since covid is no longer novel, the risk of LC is not much higher (if at all).
Castl3ton-Snob@reddit
Source for your second claim?
Old_Art7622@reddit
The risk of LC has declined since 2020...due to Omicron and population immunity.
Also: https://medicalxpress.com/news/2024-03-covid-indistinguishable-viral-syndromes-year.html
watchnlearning@reddit
Absolute nonsense
And yeah we have all heard of post viral infections Covid stands alone
Old_Art7622@reddit
It is not nonsense just because you do not agree with it.
watchnlearning@reddit
Correct. It's nonsense because ample science says you're wrong. And I've read to bunch if it. Go find it yourself. Im disgusted and exhausted from years of this bullshit.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Science is does not say I'm wrong. I've read a bunch of it too. Plenty of studies have issues with selection bias, lack of control group, broad definitions, and cohorts that are not representative of the general population after 2022.
watchnlearning@reddit
Gosh I wonder how easy it is to find a control group without covid
Old_Art7622@reddit
Ever heard of Long Flu? https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/news/20231219/more-evidence-suggests-that-long-flu-is-a-thing
And since covid is no longer novel, the risk of LC is not much higher (if at all).
CurrentBias@reddit
Your second link is a self-reported survey study (something you criticized in this comment)
Old_Art7622@reddit
Novelty absolutely does make a difference. Immunity is not just about the ability to provide long-lasting protection against infection. If your immune system has seen the virus before, it will know how to fight it better. There is long-lasting T cell immunity which protects against severe outcomes
CurrentBias@reddit
Except SARSCoV2 dysregulates the T cell response to both infection and vaccination
Old_Art7622@reddit
This is misinformation and not what the study showed at all. Why do you think covid severity is at record lows, age-standardized mortality is below pre-pandemic levels, and life expectancy is increasing? It is not due to dysregulated immune systems. Plenty of data and studies show the protective effect of T cells in reducing the severity of covid infections
CurrentBias@reddit
Carefully read both studies before you call them misinformation, and then carefully explain how they did not show what I wrote.
In the meantime, you and the public health industrial complex are welcome to reject this evidence all you wish -- I don't expect otherwise from most folks -- but you're in a prepper intel sub, so if I were you, I would take the time to actually read what these authors wrote
Old_Art7622@reddit
It is not evidence as it goes against real-world data. The first study you linked looks at a cohort of 149 from 2020-2021...so already it is inapplicable as they were comparing NOVEL covid infections to other infections that humans had been exposed to.
For the second study, please read this thread: https://x.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1638153235981541376
CurrentBias@reddit
Peer review takes time, so to look at the peer-reviewed evidence, we have to look at cohorts from years ago. If I show you preprints that look at post-Omicron cohorts, you will probably reject them because they aren't peer-reviewed. There's no real way to discuss this with anyone who is determined to wait and see until all of the damage is done before we have the most airtight evidence imaginable. All we are left with, otherwise, is inference (which -- from the perspective of the precautionary principle -- is valuable in its own right).
If we follow your standard, we have to throw out the evidence the author of that thread cited regarding enhanced immunity to flu vaccine in men who recovered from mild COVID (since it relies on participants from August and December 2020)
Old_Art7622@reddit
We have real-world data which paints a picture of the current risks, much better than any study can.
As mentioned, LC rates are not increasing, overall mortality is below pre-pandemic levels. and covid is not even a top 10 cause of death anymore. Since 2022 onwards, the situation has improved dramatically despite all protocols being lifted and life returning to normal.
CurrentBias@reddit
>overall mortality is below pre-pandemic levels
Where? In the US, excess deaths are still above pre-pandemic levels.
>covid is not even a top 10 cause of death anymore
Acute covid is not, but that doesn't tell us how many of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular deaths have been exacerbated by organ damage from covid. This is especially relevant, because unlike the flu, covid is known to exploit the vascular system to infect every organ system, and this damage can be undetectable until harm thresholds/breaking points are reached.
In February of last year, the CDC's Vital Statistics Reporting Guidance was updated to include a section on certifying covid deaths that occur due to long-term health complications caused by infection. In their words, "[SARSCoV2] can have lasting effects on nearly every organ and organ system of the body weeks, months, and potentially years after infection." They call for "certifiers [to] carefully review and consider the decedent’s medical history and records, laboratory test results, and autopsy report, if one is available." This is phenomenal guidance, but how do we know it's being followed?
Old_Art7622@reddit
Not sure where that insurance site are getting their data from, but: https://x.com/JPWeiland/status/1824630174320660551
And I'm specifically talking about age-standardized mortality being below pre-pandemic levels: https://x.com/Truth_in_Number/status/1851657886046326955
There is no statistically significant increase in cardiovascular deaths in 2023 either. In 2020-2022, yes there was an increase, but that went down too.
Covid does not infect every organ system. It starts of in the upper respiratory tract as do most other respiratory viruses, and if it is controlled by the immune system, it does not disseminate. The flu can infect the heart, the brain, the pancreas, etc.
CurrentBias@reddit
We already have evidence that it does. The NIH's autopsy series included two patients who "reported only mild or no respiratory symptoms and died with, not from, COVID-19, yet had SARS-CoV-2 RNA widely detected across the body and brain." Here are 23 more autopsies from pathologists in Poland. I would love to see a more recent autopsy study proving that anyone infected with SARSCoV2 has managed to fully clear the virus. I look for this evidence every day, because it's hugely concerning to me that in year five, it still does not exist, and I have yet to find it. I am being serious when I say that you could really make my day if you can. Until then, the burden of proof is to show that anyone's immune system has contained a SARSCoV2 infection to the respiratory system. You can't just hope that it does -- you have to show it.
Furthermore, researchers from UCSF found chronic T cell activation in patients without clinically-obvious LC (here is the preprint, since the published version is paywalled). Chronic T cell activation (and subsequent exhaustion) is associated with chronic infections and autoimmunity (as outlined in this review article from Nature Immunology). Researchers at Ohio State University found in vitro evidence that SARSCoV2 is efficient at spreading directly from cell to cell, circumventing extracellular fluid/humoral immunity. Taken together, this evidence suggests that chronic infection is the norm, not the exception. How well the body tolerates the chronic phase is another story, but to deny that there is a chronic phase with SARSCoV2 is outright misinformation
Old_Art7622@reddit
Dying with covid means the immune system is no longer fighting it off and therefore, it can disseminate. Where are the autopsy studies of those who died with influenza, for example?
All viruses can have a chronic phase, but it is clearly not the norm. Covid has been studied much more extensively than other viruses. Also, most participants in the second study did have LC and the majority were infected pre-Omicron.
CurrentBias@reddit
Exactly. I think you get it. Until proven otherwise, everyone who dies after SARSCoV2 infection is someone who dies "with" SARSCoV2. And I would legitimately love to see autopsy studies of those who died with influenza. Here's one looking at H1N1 from 2019
Old_Art7622@reddit
Dying with covid means they had an active infection at the time of death
CurrentBias@reddit
We should probably expand that definition if chronic infections with SARSCoV2 are the norm, shouldn't we?
Old_Art7622@reddit
There is no evidence that it is the norm, so I disagree.
CurrentBias@reddit
If there's no evidence that it's not, the precautionary principle suggests that the burden of proof is the other way around 🖖
Old_Art7622@reddit
Except a survey about which symptoms someone is experiencing is different than a survey used to claim cumulative risk stats
minecraftsteve696@reddit
You got them there dude
Keji70gsm@reddit
A thread for you https://x.com/zalaly/status/1769419614201499940?t=QE2P4uajlppcNhjN6mrNEA&s=19
3 key points
Covid is worse than flu
Covid is more multisystemic; flu is more respiratory
Both covid and flu cause more health loss in the long-term than what is evident around the time of acute infection
Study: covid vs flu-
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(23)00684-9/fulltext
Old_Art7622@reddit
This is the same study that is referenced in the link I provided, but keep in mind that this study compared novel covid to endemic flu, rather than endemic covid to endemic flu like we have now. Also, a VA cohort.
Keji70gsm@reddit
You're suggesting we rapidly adapted to not be impacted so much?
Coronaviruses are notorious for NOT creating a lasting immune response..
Old_Art7622@reddit
Immunity is not just about preventing infection. Yes, covid has a short incubation period and nABs wane so reinfections can occur, but immunity is about your body knowing how to better fight off infection. That is why covid is no longer novel and covid severity is at record lows. There is long-lasting T-cell immunity.
Keji70gsm@reddit
Yeah, that's oversimplified for the same reason vaccinating for new strains with old strain vaccines is. You can teach the wrong thing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Original_antigenic_sin
Old_Art7622@reddit
What has been seen with covid, is that if the vaccine is not well-matched to the current strains, the effectiveness in preventing infection is less durable but the protection against severe illness remains. Same applies to infection
Keji70gsm@reddit
It may be less likely to kill you in the acute phase, but that's cold comfort for longterm risks. It's not anywhere near good enough.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Immunity has also resulted in a risk reduction in the long term risks too
Keji70gsm@reddit
I've seen higher odds with repeat infection, not lower. A marginal reduction in risk that doesn't come close to making it neglible, againdt the sheer number of infections, is practicably useless. It is NOT the answer.
Old_Art7622@reddit
It is far from marginal. The "higher odds" think is misleading. The risk actually declines with reinfection. This is just showing the idea of cumulative risk which is basic math
Keji70gsm@reddit
You didn't read it properly.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Didn't read what properly? Your comments or the study?
Old_Art7622@reddit
Ever heard of Long Flu? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(23)00344-0/fulltext
NaggerGuy@reddit
Ya it was as soon as the messaging changed, and I watched formerly concerned and cautious around me immediately fall in line
Bitter_Ranger572@reddit
Nope. Clot shot.
WittyDefense41@reddit
Why do I feel like no one on this sub is a prepper?
Tioga09@reddit
Oh here we go with more of this crap
sqwiggy72@reddit
I don't think it will do it, as covid has changed and only become more and more closer to a common cold. This model is based on data of covid getting stronger when the opposite is true.
Ill_Long_7417@reddit
We need better air.
RecalcitrantHuman@reddit
This is ridiculous. Long Covid is actually damage from mRNA injections. Easy to see if you aren’t a compromised scientist. Just correlate with jabs.
luv2fly781@reddit
Send the multiple scientific data points. Love to see it
Crocs_n_Glocks@reddit
How does this matter really if (according to this model) every single person will eventually have long covid
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
i don't know how to tell you that disabilities and illness should be avoided if possible, but that's just me
Crocs_n_Glocks@reddit
According to this model, that isn't gonna happen
qwb3656@reddit
But muh NaTuRaL immunity
SunriseInLot42@reddit
Antisocial, basement-dwelling Redditors who are still mad that the rest of the world isn’t hiding in their basements are clinging to the vague boogeyman of “long Covid” to justify staying home like they would’ve been doing anyways
Longjumping_Area_120@reddit
Terrifying but it’s important to remember there’s a solid chance sterilizing interventions (Nasal vaccines, maybe certain types of sprays likely Profi) will be widely available within eighteen months
Usual-Ice-4992@reddit
More jabs, more vaccines.
urdelusionalafyo@reddit
You mean vaccine injury?
SJSquishmeister@reddit
Long covid is more common among people that weren't vaccinated..
Oops, there's those pesky facts again.
Lakeviewsunset@reddit
They don't listen to facts. They choose to fear a vaccine because unlike covid, they can control their exposure to it. All the unvaccinated people will be exposed to covid just like the rest of the population, only their immune system won't have the antibodies to remove the spike protein quickly. Logic would state that the longer your exposed to something the more damage is done.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Nearly all unvaccinated have already been exposed to covid so their immune system does have antibodies to remove the spike protein quickly, but rather than it being from a vaccine, it is from the virus itself. The infection basically acted as a vaccine
RoseMadderSK@reddit
My life screeched to a stop in 2018 by a flu like virus. I kept trying to work for months that resulted in becoming almost housebound. I was progressing slightly when I got covid right before the shut down. I almost didn't survive the fatigue and other symptoms. This is the first time, again, that I am starting to be able to increase my movement, have a conversation, shower, all the things I lost. Progress is minute but I am grateful.
antinomya@reddit
You lost me at "Canadian government"
hrnnnn@reddit
Yeah Canada isn't a real place
antinomya@reddit
Not everything that glitters is gold.
Jaicobb@reddit
Funny thing about models.
panormda@reddit
All models lie. Some models are useful.
Jaicobb@reddit
That's a good way to think about it.
panormda@reddit
I went to Google the name of the guy who said this and got an entire blurb of info I didn't ask for.... Sooo anyway, here's some info lol
The phrase "All models are wrong, but some are useful" is often attributed to the statistician George E. P. Box. It reflects the idea that while models are simplifications of reality and therefore inherently contain inaccuracies, they can still provide valuable insights and guidance for understanding complex systems.
Here's a deeper look into this concept:
Why Models Are "Wrong"
Simplification: Models simplify reality by focusing on certain variables and relationships while ignoring others. This is necessary to make them manageable and understandable, but it means they can't capture every detail of the real world.
Assumptions: Models are built on assumptions that may not hold true in all situations. These assumptions help create a framework for analysis but can lead to inaccuracies if they don't align with actual conditions.
Data Limitations: The data used to build models can be incomplete, biased, or outdated, which can affect the model's accuracy.
Why Models Are Useful
Insight and Understanding: Despite their limitations, models help us understand complex systems by highlighting key relationships and dynamics.
Prediction: Models can be used to make predictions about future events or behaviors, which is invaluable in fields like economics, meteorology, and engineering.
Decision-Making: By providing a structured way to analyze scenarios and outcomes, models aid in decision-making processes across various domains.
Communication: Models offer a common language for discussing complex ideas and hypotheses, facilitating communication among experts and stakeholders.
Conclusion
While it's important to recognize the limitations of models, their utility lies in their ability to provide clarity and direction amidst complexity. The key is to use models judiciously, understanding their assumptions and limitations, while continuously refining them with new data and insights.
Jaicobb@reddit
Reminds me of v for vendetta. I'll butcher the quote, but it's something like, 'Artists use lies to tell the truth. Politicians use the truth to tell lies.'
panormda@reddit
It would be naive to think that a politician does not need the skill to lie, insofar as the circumstances call for it. Like, when you've got foreign agents who are actively trying to destroy your country, that facet of business shrewdness is undoubtably necessary. I think everyone knows that every politician lies. So in a sense, we are voting for the politician whom we believe will lie in our best interests.
The problem isn't that politicians lie. The problem is that some people are against fundamental freedoms. It is the large swaths of people who support antisocial measures who are the problem.
Old_Art7622@reddit
This model, specifically, is not useful and it is inaccurate
Audere1@reddit
Is it just me, or do these numbers not add up? If "each infection present[s] a steady 13% risk of developing Long COVID," shouldn't five infections have a risk of 65% and ten being a near-certainty, not a risk? What am I missing?
KennstduIngo@reddit
That's not how it works. You have a 50% chance of flipping a heads on a coin each time, but that doesn't mean you have a 100% chance of flipping at least one head in two tries.
TattooedBeatMessiah@reddit
It says each *individual*, not infection. This means the correlation isn't linear. Infection trajectories are often sigmoidal, increasing most rapidly at the beginning and most slowly at the end.
Audere1@reddit
So each infection doesn't pose a "steady 13% risk" of causing long COVID, then
watchnlearning@reddit
Close enough to take seriously. 3 infections is 37-40%
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
bad wording, but yes we are calculating the culmative risk for an individual having LC after N infections, so its not directly linear as you can see in the graph posted
Used_Dentist_8885@reddit
It’s not straight multiplication. See my other comment
Audere1@reddit
You lost me the second you said Excel, unfortunately. That's reaching back to college courses
shaggysnorlax@reddit
Sounds like someone doesn't have their math problem preps ready
Audere1@reddit
A gaping hole in my prepping. Excel prompts will be right up there with first aid
shaggysnorlax@reddit
I'll bet you that there are more uses for the Excel preps than the first aid preps. Or do you need me to gin up a spreadsheet for that data?
Used_Dentist_8885@reddit
Ok well if it were multiplication it would be a straight line of long covid risk per time, but this function looks more like and S curve where it starts slow, gets faster, and then slows down again as it approaches 100%
Audere1@reddit
Once more, with feeling: then each infection does not present a steady 13% risk of causing long COVID. For style points: each infection poses an increased risk of causing long COVID, but the increase diminishes with each infection.
Apprehensive-Block47@reddit
what you’re missing is best understood in terms of the stock market:
say the market *hypothetically were to grow by 13% every year. in other words, your investments’ values grow by 13% year over year, every year.
at year 0, you have 100% of your initial money.
at year 1, you have 113% of your initial money.
at year 2, you have 127.69% of your initial money. that’s 13% more than you have at the end of year 1.
at year 3, it’s 144.29%.
at year 4, it’s 163.04%.
at year 5, it’s 184.24%, year 6 is 208.19%, year 7 is 235.26%, year 8 is 265.84%, year 9 is 300.4%, and
at year 10 it’s 339.46%.
so in other words, 339.46% of people will have long covid symptoms after 10 years.
hope this helps 👍
Audere1@reddit
I imagine 280% of dead people will have died, too
TattooedBeatMessiah@reddit
Audere1@reddit
Then each infection doesn't present a steady risk of developing long COVID
TattooedBeatMessiah@reddit
You appear to be correct.
420Aquarist@reddit
Things aren’t always linear?
Audere1@reddit
Then they shouldn't describe it as if it was
bigboldbanger@reddit
Thanks Fauci.
Old_Art7622@reddit
That is not what projections show and people like have been wrong in yoru projections time and time again. In 2022, doomers were speculating that in 2-3 years, most people would have LC (yet that turned out to be wrong).
It is honestly laughable how desperate you people are to push this narrative and exaggerate the risks now that everyone has moved on.
LC is uncommon in children. Those two studies are extremely flawed, as is the case with all survey studies. There is A LOT of selection bias. The risk does not increase with each infection. The exact opposite occurs, in fact. Stop spreading misinformation
SunriseInLot42@reddit
I suspect that these types have been, um, “social distancing” for decades
Old_Art7622@reddit
Yeah, probably even before the pandemic. They're downvoting my replies just because it does not suit their narrative
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
this is what my govt is claiming, which actually gives conservative estimates.
Source: Institut national de santé publique du Québec
Increased Risk with Re-infections
love to see all the wrong predictions you claim.
Old_Art7622@reddit
Are you not the same person with @ TheMemeticist account on Twitter? You should see the projections made by David Steadson which all turned out to be wrong. He made a tweet in 2022, saying that if the projections are correct, most will have LC in 2-3 years. It has already been 2-3 years and LC is not even increasing. It seems to fluctuate around a stable baseline, and is lower than it was in 2022.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
you're paraphrasing some tweet from someone i don't follow, years ago to show that models published from reputable sources are wrong? why am I beholden to randos wrong predictions as if I made or endorsed them or that they are based on the same studies?
or are you just saying "models wrong" "models bad" because you don't understand the basics of science?
Old_Art7622@reddit
Why are you even using these studies to claim cumulative risk?
Why are you not interpreting the results as:
- People with LC were more likely to have been infected early on (when the risk of LC was greater), and thus, have had more time to get reinfected
AND/OR
- Those with LC may be more susceptible to reinfection due to persistent immune changes in some with post-viral syndrome?
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
the studies are making claims about cumulative risk
Old_Art7622@reddit
The flawed studies are simply showing that people who self-reported LC were more likely so self-report more infections. Did they specify which infection caused the LC for those who were reinfected?
Old_Art7622@reddit
Plugging in incorrect stats that result from the huge selection bias that happens with self-reported survey studies...into a mathematical formula and making a graph in Excel is not how science works. It is not how Covid works and it is not what the data shows. LC levels have been consistently lower than they were throughout 2022, and as mentioned, are fluctuating around a stable baseline, not increasing.
Audere1@reddit
But it is how scaring people on r/prepperintel into giving you upvotes works!
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
okay, the code is on github and its like 80 lines of code.
go ahead and fork it with your prediction with "the correct stats" that you have since your clearly an expert data scientist that should be easy for you to correct the model.
https://github.com/TheMemeticist/LC-Risk-Estimator/tree/main
twd000@reddit
I urge all parents to keep their children indoors 24/7. It’s the only way to keep them safe and healthy.
SunriseInLot42@reddit
These types have been doing that since waaaaay before March 2020
knuckle_dragger79@reddit
Lol. Totally not fear mongering.
Bravest1635@reddit
NOPE, not interested in another government funded and administered “Black Swan” event. It’s not a secret anymore.
mrsredfast@reddit
And our PCP, who has always been very proactive about health and preventative wellness, says he doesn’t think the vaccines are necessary because “now it’s just a cold.” He’s not saying vaccines are ineffective, just unnecessary.
Raddish3030@reddit
People just need to admit that the long covid is code for jab side effects and developmental issues from lockdowns and being unable to see facial expressions.
bluewar40@reddit
Sure grandpa now let’s get you back to bed :)
Raddish3030@reddit
Lol better than you killing Grandpas and Grandma with pokes every year.
watchnlearning@reddit
Enjoy drinking your raw milk babe. You might find out soon enough that viruses are real and masks can be useful
bluewar40@reddit
See this is hilarious cause people like you are literally the reason why so many of us feel the need to prep. Why are you even in this space if you’re just a collapse-fetishist?
SJSquishmeister@reddit
This is nonsense and ignores all the data and science around long covid.
Used_Dentist_8885@reddit
The formula for the probability of something happening over n trials is 1-(p-1)^n N is the amount of times and p is a percentage chance of it happening each time so 13% Very easy to plunk into excel and see what it is
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
yep, several studies are giving this number now
Source: Institut national de santé publique du Québec
Increased Risk with Re-infections
Accomplished-Ad3250@reddit
But it's just another cold! /S
Electric-RedPanda@reddit
omg…
55peasants@reddit
So what it's just part of evolution at this point
Blarghnog@reddit
Taking todays inflection and long COVID rates and worthlessly projecting them into the future as a linear model is some of the worst science I have ever heard of.
TheMemeticist@reddit (OP)
its not a linear model