Merced County health officials confirm human case of Bird Flu

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oceanwave4444@reddit

I feel like the red flag is when it goes human to human... but honestly I'm sure it's just a matter of time

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Not sure I'd say it's a matter of time because as even influenza experts will admit...nobody really has a clue of what H5N1 could do in the future and anyone that tries to give you an answer of what it will do is just guessing like everyone else. It was discovered in 1997 and has infected likely thousands of people if we count cases that don't get confirmed and has never gained the ability to cause sustained human transmission despite that. Not to say it's impossible but it's also not inevitable. It's honestly a total unknown if H5N1 even has the ability to mutate into a disease that spreads readily human to human like COVID. I certainly don't want to find out so let's hope they can figure out a way to get this under control in bovine or at least find better and more effective ways to protect these dairy workers.

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buffaloraven@reddit

It depends on time scale. 97-now is on the 25 year range. Give it a couple hundred years of infecting and the likelihood goes way up.

So yeah, no idea in the moment, but eventually it’ll do it, just a question of when and how bad.

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

It’s never inevitable with influenza. There’s many strains of influenza that never gain the ability to transmit in a sustained fashion. If every influenza strain had the ability to then we’d be in serious trouble.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Viruses can evolve rapidly though, they carry a genetic code that disables certain proofreading mechanisms on copied genetic information supplied by the host cell, meaning mutations will appear much more frequently than in humans for instance.

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

Yes, which is why this will become the most deadly virus ever

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Yes exactly, and then it'll evolve to be less deadly fairly quickly as deadly viruses tend not to spread too well due to potential spreaders being dead and symptomatic folk knowing they should prolly stay home while asymptomatic folk keep spreading milder variants.

And then survival of the fittest means that the humans who are truly susceptible to the virus die off faster meaning the rest of the population is more resistant.

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

That’s actually fake, it was proven so by Covid. It was a theory made in the 1800s by a scientisct from back then, so it was obviously going off of inaccurate data.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Which one of my statements were fake? Because I can quite easily relate them to lectures I've followed at med school.

I'd like to know your sources because I know mine. I can even explain the background of things or why we know this stuff in detail if you want me to?

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

Sure explain your sources. But Covid did prove that viruses don’t evolve to be less deadly. Hell, the Spanish flu became more deadly

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I don't quite see how Covid proved that viruses don't become less deadly and I'd love to get your source on that.

Covid had a lot of different variants of which most of the newer ones did get less deadly, but with vaccinations it's somewhat hard to discern the course viruses will take when you kinda just leave them to be. It's also more of a rule of thumb than it is something that must happen, on average they definitely should get less deadly. without pulling up random medical literature on this for a Reddit debate I'll simply give an example, with the background that this has essentially been taught at med school.

We've got Covid, a disease that has a relatively long incubation period that's contagious even when asymptomatic. It's deadlier than most human flu viruses but not super deadly.

Now you've got Sars, which is basically its older brother, much deadlier, worse symptoms etc.

China was able to stop the spread of Sars due to it being symptomatic in essentially every case, it was relatively easy to quarantine everyone who could spread it. Covid does not share this trait.

As for the Spanish flu, are you aware that in the 70s or so there was a Spanish flu outbreak from a lab where they kept the virus? Well most people don't because it wasn't very lethal at all. In this case it was human adaptation where everyone who was especially susceptible to it already died.

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

Ok buddy here’s various links proving that viruses don’t evolve to be less deadly https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10066022/ https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Health/debunking-idea-viruses-evolve-virulent/story?id=82052581 https://www.ihv.org/news/2021-archives/usa-today-fact-check-yes-viruses-can-mutate-to-become-more-deadly.html https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-011488089270

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LordCthUwU@reddit

What I said is that viruses will generally evolve to become less deadly, but that that's just a rule of thumb and they can do a lot of stuff.

It was also an oversimplification, sort of, since viruses will generally evolve to be not very deadly, so viruses that are already not very deadly might as well evolve to become more deadly.

The articles you shared stated that viruses can mutate to become more deadly, which I implied, but that they usually evolve to become mildly virulent rather than extremely deadly.

Aka, the very deadly viruses will still gravitate heavily to becoming less deadly. That's all I was saying, and it's backed up by your literature, thanks.

Of course exceptions apply, like rabies or HIV. Rabies is an exception because it doesn't travel from human to human so it doesn't matter if the human gets the chance to spread it. HIV isn't immediately very deadly, it takes a very long time meaning that it's virulence is less impactful on its spread. You could still say it's impactful on its spread in our ecosystem though because if it'd be less deadly, humans would be less careful with it meaning it'd spread even less.

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Active_Background889@reddit

Then why hasn’t Ebola become less deadly

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LordCthUwU@reddit

"if global warming is real then why was this winter colder than last one?"

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Ok-Cup2411@reddit

Wow, you’re not taking this seriously at all. A disease with an 11-35% death rate will be extremely deadly. And that’s after it becomes less deadly. Go to r/h5n1_avianflu and get yourself informed

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Why don't you go to med school and get yourself informed like I did?

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Ok-Cup2411@reddit

Too expensive. Oh wait, you’re a rich idiot. You won’t be affected by bird flu at all.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

The degree cost me about 1500 euros a year. Most of my fellow med students are well off but not rich.

And apparently you're a poor idiot who won't be affected by bird flu at all because the odds of it becoming a massive problem are simply not that big.

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Ok-Cup2411@reddit

Oh youre an eu person. Of course. And hey, head on down to r/h5n1_avianflu to see how bad it’s getting

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LordCthUwU@reddit

The situation isn't much different from where it was, exceptionally deadly avian flu viruses that sometimes jump to humans but have a lot of difficulty spreading from human to human.

This is not new, the viruses have been around for a long time. People here are completely right in saying that in theory it could mutate and actually spread really quickly, the odds of it happening at any time aren't that big though. Really really not that big.

And if it would happen it'd likely take on the form of something like Covid's older brothers SARS or MERS for a bit. SARS was about as contagious as Covid and had a lethality rate of about 10%, the outbreak was quickly stopped however due to how dangerous the virus was, it quickly gave symptoms and people were afraid enough of it to actually quarantine themselves.

MERS is a virus that spreads in the middle east, has a lethality rate of about 30% but isn't considered a danger because for many many years it's shown to not spread very quickly.

The odds of avian flu just going ham right now are, as I already said, quite slim. If it does go ham we'll likely either have a local catastrophe where it does or another global pandemic if it's less deadly and symptomatic than SARS and more like covid.

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Ok-Cup2411@reddit

Yeah but have you seen how badly the usda and cdc are fumbling the farm situation

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LordCthUwU@reddit

They are undoubtedly doing poorly yes, as has most of the world in decades past.

I'm still more afraid of something erupting in China or India again, maybe somewhere in Africa.

Then again there's political instability in the USA, religious zealots with nukes in the middle east, military conflicts around the world, global warming, the rise of populism worldwide, the world getting worse economically for the poor (and young), the odds of having a stroke or heart attack due to poor diet and exercise, microplastics everywhere, the odds of an accident when I'm handling horses.

All of those things are much more likely to impact me bigly, and most of them are likely to impact the world much more bigly than the avian flu.

On that note, we should totally do something about all of those things, including the avian flu. The avian flu is just not something I'm very worried about at the moment as the odds of it impacting me or anyone else here is simply much much lower than the odds of other stuff we can actually influence impacting us.

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Trick_Can6678@reddit

It’s been detected in pigs now. We’re fucked

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Sure buddy

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Trick_Can6678@reddit

dude. scientists have literally said we're fucked once it gets into pigs. and theres a new clade in washington. just sort by new in this sub

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I am a scientist and I remain exceptionally sceptical.

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Trick_Can6678@reddit

youre a european scientist not an american scientist. of course youre skeptical. the eu will probably be better off than the united states when this becomes a pandemic.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I'm skeptical because I'm educated in virology

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Trick_Can6678@reddit

the education was old and its not about this new clade of the virus. you have no knowledge of this.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Based on what?

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Zealousideal-Peak460@reddit

based on the fact that you refuse to acknowledge the 11-35% death rate

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Are you the same person who replied to my previous comments just scurrying here on a new account?

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Zealousideal-Peak460@reddit

yes, stop dodging the question

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I'm not dodging a question, you are.

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Working_Clothes_9705@reddit

I’m not a troglodyte for pointing out the death rate.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Then what are you?

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

How do you feel now that Rfk is gonna be in charge of the department of health?

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I'm worried for the lives of many, as we set one step closer to the end of democracy, the end of the rights of the poor and the weak, the end of the rights of the LGBT+ community, the end of the rights of women.

We've set a step closer to the middle ages, and granted a black plague ran wild through Europe at that point your have to be asinine to think any form of avian flu outbreak would be the biggest thing to worry about right now because it's still very very very very unlikely.

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

I am too, as I’m a queer woman myself. But Rfk is gonna outlaw the vaccines.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I very much doubt that he would, and even if he did outlaw vaccines for whatever I'd be more worried about other diseases than avian flu.

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

Well trump has said he’s open to rfk’s proposal. And Rfk himself has said he won’t take away vaccines (I doubt it). But I’m more worried about how he’ll handle the department of health

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Yeah that's crazy man

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

I know that you’re a European and won’t be directly affected, but he’s going to mismanage the health department

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Yeah that's crazy man

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

Please say something else other than that

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LordCthUwU@reddit

But y do?

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

I want some happiness in this time

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Fair enough, at least we can take solace in Trump being too incompetent to even do a lot so he's unlikely to mess things up that bad. He'll also throw the Republican party into chaos when he's no longer able to run for president since it's mostly a cult of personality.

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

Do you remember his first presidency? He screwed with a lot of stuff

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Well yes but at least he was somewhat limited in what he could screw with. He mostly just made the US look very stupid though.

Anyhow I go sleep, good night.

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Ok-Main-3897@reddit

Good morning. There’s a new novel reassortment of h5n1 in Cambodia. What’s your opinion on this?

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LordCthUwU@reddit

U wot m8

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

Face it man. Kamala was at least possibly going to make this less deadly. But now that trump won it’ll kill more people. Just accept it

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LordCthUwU@reddit

What

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

I’m honestly just scared

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LordCthUwU@reddit

U wot

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

I don’t want to die of bird flu. I don’t want my family to die of bird flu. I don’t want this world to die of bird flu. And I know that you’ll just say what to my posts. That’s fine. I don’t care anymore honestly. Maybe humanity deserves this. At least if I kill myself I won’t have to see that happen.

I know that you don’t care what happens in the states. You’ll probably be ok over there in europe. But I’m not safe here. No one is. Not with Rfk in charge.

Maybe the pandemic won’t be as bad, or it’ll kill us all. But one things for sure, trump won’t handle it well. When I inevitably get it, I’m going to embrace death.

I hope that you never get it.

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Excuse me what am I reading do you need me to recommend some Reddit care to you like what?

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

Im sorry that I’m continuing to bother you about bird flu. I’ll stop if you want me to. You clearly don’t have any interest in talking about this any further. It’s fine that you’re trolling me. I don’t care that much

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Well I mean I made the same statement a lot of times and you never really added anything new so we're going back and forth.

Although your numerous banned accounts and the fact that you basically respond to me within minutes every single time regardless of whenever I send a message makes me think you might be a bit ya know.

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

I have notifs on and I’m pretty fast at typing tbh

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LordCthUwU@reddit

Why all the deleted accounts tho?

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

Suspended lmao

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Least-Risk-8321@reddit

Yes I’m the same person on every account. I used to have several. But they all got banned.

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Helpful_Car1617@reddit

Good night. I’ll talk to you about project 2025 tomorrow

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ViolinistEuphoric720@reddit

I am a person who is extremely worried for the future

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Zealousideal-Peak460@reddit

i said that i was, now acknowledge the death rate

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LordCthUwU@reddit

I never denied the death rate you troglodyte

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Trick_Can6678@reddit

based on the fact that you refuse to read new articles about bird flu. you refuse to acknowledge the 11-35% death rate as well.

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PopularTie7685@reddit

It’s in pigs now

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Money-Fix4359@reddit

Ok what if it gets recombined or reassorted what happens in that case

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LordCthUwU@reddit

A lot. Or nothing. It might die quickly because it's non-viable or it might suddenly get the virulence of bird flu yet spread as quickly as measles.

And then, over time it'd likely gravitate into a less deadly version because less deadly versions spread better.

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Infinite-Price-3390@reddit

Then why was the second half of the Spanish flu more deadly?

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

Of course just saying it’s not possible to predict an inevitability with an influenza strain

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watchnlearning@reddit

A significant amount of leaders in the field are saying when, not if.

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

Then they are talking out of their rear ends. The world’s leading influenza scientists a lot of whom have been studying the disease for 20+ years all met in Brisbane, Australia recently and all agreed that it is neither impossible nor inevitable H5N1 will cause sustained human transmission in the future. These are the real people you should be listening to for bird flu. Not Robert Redfield who thinks bird flu will cause a pandemic from a lab spillover

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

They’re stupid

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

I can assure you that people who have studied bird flu for 20+ years are not stupid they know more about the disease than you’d be able to learn in multiple lifetimes

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Ok-Main-3897@reddit

Well they’ve studied the old clade

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AnitaResPrep@reddit

You see, years before from early 2000s, scientists already were warning about pandemic in the style of covid: it is not IF but WHEN. Nobody listened (in public health administrations - governments). Too many environments destroyed, species escaping their natural borders, so we are going into a wall of dominos collapsing (as instance, some scientists warned that due to the modified climate, wild mold / spores airborne could be another heatlth hazard. As in the Canadian movie Flora (fiction, but gives a little idea)

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watchnlearning@reddit

If you read between the lines it is likely H2H already, but not severe as it’s not getting in lungs yet. And yes, I’d be preparing for potential rapid escalation. The cases are likely significantly underreported.

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1Squid-Pro-Crow@reddit

It has actually gone human to human in studied and documented cases in Asia a while ago but it wasn't an efficient spread that kept going.

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Random_modnaR420@reddit

Not that I don’t believe you, but can you share the source?

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

He is right limited human to human transmission has occured in the past in other countries.

https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/inhumans.html#:\~:text=During%20past%20A(H5N1)%20bird,available%20on%20the%20WHO%20website.

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oceanwave4444@reddit

Yikes

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fecal_encephalitis@reddit

I am a member of a response team for serious illnesses, and we get a short briefing on this every Monday. It doesn't seem to be a problem for now, but they are definitely keeping an eye on it. There is a Marburg virus outbreak happening in Africa right now that we're on high alert for, though.

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iwannaddr2afi@reddit

To kinda repeat and rephrase a comment I made on the OP, we're not in a place where anything besides what's currently happening is imminent.

More cattle-to-human cases give the virus more room to crash into a human with human influenza and make a version of this bug that's capable of easily spreading from human to human and being dangerous to human life and health.

So we are in an increasingly dangerous position the more human cases there are, but it's inherently unpredictable. Best for us is to see more of those humans who are in contact with it be vaccinated for seasonal flu to protect public health and prevent the potential bad h2h variant, and for those workers to be personally protected as much as possible from getting this version of bird flu from dairy cattle.

Easier said than done, but that's where we're at.

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

This is the right stance to have right now honestly. We don't have a clue how it will mutate in the future and honestly I worry less about natural mutation and much more about what you mentioned with recombination with H5N1 and seasonal flu. Luckily co-infection and recombination in of itself is very rare but like you said the more people who get it the more darts H5N1 has to throw at the board and hit a bullseye to get what's needed to cause the doomsday scenario.

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

Doesn’t recombination happen easily?

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

No reassortment events are generally rare. Not unheard of but rare. Flu viruses genes are in easily detachable segments perhaps that's what you mean by it being easy. When two flu viruses infect the same cell and get close together, they can simply swap these segments and give rise to viruses that can sometimes have dramatic new properties. But again luckily co-infection to even have the possibility of reassortment is rare and so it doesn't happen often. The last time a recombination event took place was in 2009 that caused the swine flu pandemic.

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Impossible_Juice_325@reddit

Yeah but it COULD happen again this flu season

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

Well I didn't say it couldn't happen. Just explaining that it is a rare occurence.

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Impossible_Juice_325@reddit

Yes, and I don’t think we’ll be lucky for very long

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

Maybe not who knows. There will be another flu pandemic at some point now that is inevitable whether that stems from H5N1 or not in the future we will see. For now though that isn't happening and there's no indication that H5N1 is even close to being able to cause sustained human transmission so for now there's no reason to make yourself miserable by worrying a ton about this.

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Impossible_Juice_325@reddit

Yeah, but I got a feeling the next 6 months will be bad

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

What do you mean by that exactly?

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Away-Ad-1136@reddit

This was around the time Covid was getting bad. So I’m being logical.

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

I can understand that thinking. But also don’t stress yourself out over this like I said you’re going to make yourself miserable stressing out over something that may or may not happen at some point. Right now it’s not a disease that’s causing sustained human transmission and there’s no indication that it’s starting to gain the ability to. This disease has been around for years infected thousands of people and still hasn’t been able to gain said ability despite that it may not even have such an ability who knows. As it stands right now we should simply be pushing for better protection for these farm workers to prevent them from getting sick so the worst case scenario can’t happen and better testing for cows so they can stop spreading the disease.

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Working_Stand_6659@reddit

Do you understand how mutations work

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Responsible_Ad2870@reddit

I’m not sure where you got the idea that I don’t know how mutations work considering I’ve mentioned that it could mutate into a more transmissible strain one day but nobody knows. Are you capable of reading?

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Own_Tourist5051@reddit

Yes I am I’m just extremely worried about everything. I don’t want to die, I’m only 19

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

Yeah, but we’re still gonna get fucked hard, like most of the us is gonna die

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iwannaddr2afi@reddit

That's not something you can factually know, friend, and even the worst of the worst viruses are incredibly unlikely to kill "most of" the US. Fearmongering helps no one.

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

We’re talking about a 52% death rate, possibly 11%

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iwannaddr2afi@reddit

For anyone worried, look at this clown's account history.

Yes there's the threat of this becoming a serious disease in humans. This person's assessments are unserious.

I wonder what they are gaining from posting like this. Whoever launched you is a bad person.

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

Im my own goddam person and I’m not a fucking bot, I’m just an anxious 19 year old

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iwannaddr2afi@reddit

So you created an account today to spam comment about this one issue? With the absolute most catastrophizing rhetoric that happens to match the style of other fearmongering bots and trolls? Okay buddy.

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

I’ve actually made several accounts but Reddit keeps banning me. I think this is my fourth today.

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LadyParnassus@reddit

Which is very bot-like behavior.

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Impossible_Juice_325@reddit

Is it because of my names? I don’t want to take good names that actual Redditors can use, so I’m just using default names

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OrchidWise9512@reddit

Also it sounds like you’re minimizing this

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1Squid-Pro-Crow@reddit

I think someone on that thread said about 31 humans have had it now and that since spring. All cases have been relatively mild.

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PinataofPathology@reddit

I am just spitballing here but I keep thinking about cowpox and smallpox and how cows seem to help our immune systems. I know it was discussed in the book The absence of epidemic which was a very interesting read. So my pure pattern recognition zero science based on reading a book one time take is that cows to humans is milder. And that may save our collective asses.

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CypherCake@reddit

I think it's just coincidence that cows were involved but it's an interesting thought. If cows are acting as some kind of filter/modifier that only allows the milder strains through.

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Working_Stand_6659@reddit

Oh but just wait until the pigs get it. We should slaughter every pig in this country.

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

I personally think we’re fucked in the next 6 months and that 98% of the United States will die, but mimimizers will tell me I “don’t know anything” and “read papers.” Fuck them. I predict the entirety of New York City will die from this.

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McRibs2024@reddit

That seems a little dramatic

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

I guess it is. But it’s possible. To be honest, I don’t want to die from this. I want to live.

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McRibs2024@reddit

No one wants to die from it but being realistic about it is the best way to move forward. NYC is going to die. That’s millions of people.

Worst case is we do a legit lockdown while it burns itself out. Make sure you have food on hand that would get you through something like that.

Take reasonable precaution if it spreads and goes human to human which unless I missed something it hasn’t yet. Avoid gatherings etc basically the covid protocols again.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

So you agree that everyone in nyc is going to die?

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McRibs2024@reddit

Full fuck me. Missed the word not. No I do not agree

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Ok then. But there will be mass death anyway

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McRibs2024@reddit

That remains to be seen. Lessons learned from covid can go a long way and that’s if this even spreads like a pandemic and is deadly

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Working_Stand_6659@reddit

We did learn stuff. But the government isn’t applying them.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Well it is deadly! 494 people have died!

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msomnipotent@reddit

Ok, so redirect your energy into planning to live. Do you have your stock of masks, gloves, eye coverings (I can't think of the word I want for eye coverings), food and water for a few weeks?

If yes, start accumulating snacks, hygiene items, food for loved ones, things to combat boredom, etc. Then start getting food for a few more weeks.

If no, you should start. But there's no reason to panic yet.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Yeah but what about when recombination and reassortment happens

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msomnipotent@reddit

I'm a prepper, not a scientist. So my answer would be more preps, longer lockdowns. I'm doing what I can, when I can.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

I think we should be put in lockdown right now. We should also kill every cow, pig, and chicken.

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msomnipotent@reddit

How long have you been following avian flu?

This has been around since the 1990's. It isn't some new virus that no one knows anything about. Our antivirals are working, as long as people don't abuse them and no one in the US has died from it. That means proper treatment is working. We can't slaughter all the animals just because a few people are panicked. Imagine the consequences of that. Stay off the doomer sites. Find sources for credible information. Focus your energy on doing positive things.

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Shingro@reddit

I really appreciate you trying to help the fellow out with good advice and sensible precautions/information. Credit where credit is due

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msomnipotent@reddit

Thanks!

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

I’ve been following it since at least April or may

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msomnipotent@reddit

So it's pretty new to you. I've been following it for over a year. It's pretty scary to think about at first, but this is an influenza virus, not some space virus that no one knows how to treat. They are already have the building blocks for a vaccine once they figure out what clade they need to vaccinate for. This isn't The Fog that can seep into a house and kill everyone in it. I have a few autoimmune diseases and my plan is to either wear PPE and stay away from visibly sick people or stay home.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Well what about for recombination and reassortment

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

I hope you're not being serious

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

Oh it’s just a hypothetical. You should really look at the sun yourself. But I do think most of the United States will die.

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

Okay buddy 🫤

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

Don’t ok buddy me. You’re gonna fucking die.

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

Buddy okay 😐

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

We are all going to die from this sadly.

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theRealLevelZero@reddit

Instructions unclear, still stating at the sun but not dead

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AdhesivenessOwn8825@reddit

Way to reduce the severity of bird flu buddy.

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

No one is reducing the severity, it just hasn't gotten to a point to worry and may never. Did you learn anything from COVID and falling for the fear mongering and the "internet experts"?

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

“It may never” dude 31 people have gotten this

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

Annnnd how many have died?

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

None, but when reassortment and recombination happen many will die

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

If and when...not a good argument for us to get worried

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

“If” it’s really likely to happen during flu season.

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mad_bitcoin@reddit

Likely...there you again with those uncertainties claiming they are certainties

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Well, I feel like our luck is going to run out soon.

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1Squid-Pro-Crow@reddit

I think that estimate is too quick since so far we've had about 31 human cases since spring in the United States and none of those touched off efficient spread.

So, some mutation has to occur in that way.

Additionally all cases in the US since spring have been relatively mild, so that is a second set of changes that needs to happen for your scenario to be correct.

Two mutations or series of changes in 6 months is kinda quick, let alone they happen and spread that fast.

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

You also forgot about recombination and reassortment, which can quickly cause a virus to mutate

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Fun_Fortune_8220@reddit

Yes but the mildness comes from ANIMAL TO HUMAN. Human to human will not be mild