EV battery prices set to plummet, dramatic 50% drop predicted by 2026
Posted by gUIdesYL@reddit | cars | View on Reddit | 147 comments
Posted by gUIdesYL@reddit | cars | View on Reddit | 147 comments
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
As EV manufacturers scale up, they will get more and more price competitive with legacy ice manufacturers. It’s what will allow Rivian to offer the R2 for under $50,000. Within 5-7 years, traditional ice cars simply won’t be able to compete pound for pound with EV offerings.
I-Hate-You__@reddit
You're wrong.
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
Has Tesla gotten cheaper or more expensive? What about BYD? Have you followed their prices?
Recoil42@reddit
Let's try another question: Hyundai is projecting about 30-40% of their production will be EV in 2030. How are they expecting to sell the other 60-70%, if what you say is true?
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
People are slow to change. Barriers to entry.
Recoil42@reddit
So to be clear, you do not think that within 5-7 years, traditional ICE won’t be able to compete with EV.
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
I think within 5-7 years, traditional ICE will have a very difficult time maintaining price parity and value with comparable ICE options.
Recoil42@reddit
So is Hyundai wrong?
DeathChill@reddit
I find this to be a strange statement. How do we know the future? Hyundai could be wrong, they might not be. Pretending that their statement is definitive is silly.
Recoil42@reddit
I'm not saying we do. Hyundai has one projection, OP has another. I'm simply asking OP how they reconcile their projection with Hyundai's.
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
I’m having trouble trying to follow your logic. Why don’t you explain to me what you are thinking.
Recoil42@reddit
I'm not sure how much more clear I can be.
You believe EVs will so good as for it to impossible for ICE to be remotely competitive. Thus implying sales will be nearing 100% for EVs. But Hyundai believes BEVs will only make up 30-40% of sales at that time, indicating they do not agree with you. The company expects ICE, HEV, and PHEV powertrains to be quite competitive at that time, and take up the majority market share.
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
You are brutally awful at logic and reading comprehension. Yikes.
Recoil42@reddit
I'm am directly quoting you. This is you quite clearly failing to reconcile your own statements with those of at least one major automaker, and now diverting from that inability when challenged on it.
Green-Cardiologist27@reddit
This is you attempting logic and failing miserably. At some point, ICE will no longer be able to compete with the value proposition that is ICE. When that happens is unknown. But it will happen.
You will undoubtedly circle back to the ‘bUt WhAt AbOuT hYuNdAi?!?!’ trope because, as noted previously, you are not good at logic. EV adoption will not be linear. It will have a roller coaster ride l. Even when EV is significantly cheaper and better. For a long time people still chose a horse and buggy even when the cost and practicality was superior with cars.
Recoil42@reddit
You've literally already said within 5-7 years.
In this very thread.
Scroll up.
activedusk@reddit
I am skeptical how much it matters anymore outside of cheap cars or very large vehicles like trucks. Let me give an example, say a 100kWh pack costs now 15k and in the future it will be 7.5k, can that price difference between say a car price of 60k vs 67k just level the market and flood it with EVs? If you want to make a 20k EV with a 50kWh battery, heck yeah it matters but for current on sale models it will mean very little. Pickuo trucks on the other hand would benefit a lot since they could double pack capacity for not extra cost and make them viable.
King_in_a_castle_84@reddit
Unfortunately I know how greedy car manufacturers are. I'll believe it when I see it.
xstreamReddit@reddit
Automotive margins are usually single digit percent...
King_in_a_castle_84@reddit
I'd say that too if it helps people feel sorry for me and pay more. Shit, I'd tell them my product cures cancer*.
Pheer777@reddit
Except most of them are public companies and we can literally see their SCE filings
Longjumping_Hyena_52@reddit
The price the car manufacturers pay for the batteries can absolutely go down , if you think that will impact the price of cars I have some cheap property on the moon I'm looking to sell to the right buyer.
chandy_dandy@reddit
Teslas actually keep decreasing in price and so do Chinese cars.
Tesla is on its way to making a 25k (inflation adjusted) car probably
Flakester@reddit
Corporations don't have the best record of forwarding savings to consumers.
FuzzyFr0g@reddit
Tesla is absolutely waiting to dump the prices again.
flapsmcgee@reddit
Well considering most companies are selling EVs at a loss right now, it's not surprising.
RedditPoster05@reddit
Would you sell a vehicle that you can get more for? If idiots are willing to pay these insane prices for cars then it’s our own fault. It’s the middle-class suffering again. And hell the middle-class ain’t that responsible either. Willing to take out a $50,000 loan for a vehicle when they maybe make 70 or jointly 100.
speedypotatoo@reddit
Tesla dumped prices by 10k causing all EVs on the market to do that same. You're wrong on this one
max_power1000@reddit
I can see a lower cost leading to more mass market EVs in the $20-30k range like equivalents to a Corolla or CR-V. The high end stuff is going to stay priced where it is though, exclusivity is the point.
FruitbatNT@reddit
It’s been a long time since we’ve seen an automotive race to the bottom.
Ok-Poet7693@reddit
? It’s been happening since the 80s when they started the SUV propaganda.
Since then it’s been a race to the bottom for the best looking car
hi_im_bored13@reddit
There are some very good looking SUVs imho
Ok-Poet7693@reddit
Maybe Lifted Wagons, but all SUVs are mommy mobiles and all Pickup Trucks are the help
hi_im_bored13@reddit
GX, Land cruiser (100/200/250-prado), Range Rover lineup, Wrangler, & Bronco all look great and are proper BoF SUVs in the traditional sense.
Ok-Poet7693@reddit
Wrangle and Bronco are two I’ll accept, the rest are just mommy mobiles
hi_im_bored13@reddit
If a 100/200 series land cruiser or a defender octa is a mommy mobile, they must be a very cool mommy. Also, don't see how the demographic driving it makes it look any less cool
Ok-Poet7693@reddit
They (and all SUVs/Pickups) are designed to shove pedestrians underneath the vehicle, so they will never be cool
hi_im_bored13@reddit
They (land cruiser) are designed for incredible reliability and longevity, what people use them for is a different story. You also have farmers & humanitarian organizations /UN using them in africa & the middle east, as well as militaries mounting guns on the rear.
I'd wager more folks use the land cruiser specifically for proper work than for killing pedestrians.
Ok-Poet7693@reddit
You can say that with the F150, Ram, any vehicle, but they will always be making cars who buys them, whatever marketing says is just greenwashing.
“The f150 is made for the honest farmer trying to honestly haul their gear around! It’s not our fault they can’t afford a 65k and accountants/salesmen are our biggest customer! And check out this sweet 5’ hood you can’t see anything from that’s less than 30 ft away”
hi_im_bored13@reddit
In this case it's not completely marketing, we don't get the HD land cruiser which sells very well in the 3rd world & Australia. They are extremely barren on the inside and difficult to live with but very reliable work trucks. You will rarely find a 70 series land cruiser, station wagon or pickup, that hasn't been heavily (ab)used.
The non-prado land cruisers have always been very pricey for what you get, they don't make much sense as a luxury mom-vehicle. You could definitely make a case for the prado, especially the current gen.
Simon_787@reddit
That's why I like EU fleet emissions rules.
They have to sell BEVs to lower emissions, so they can't just ignore this to crank out cheap fossil cars. Too bad it only gets lowered every 5 years and not more gradually.
Bigdongergigachad@reddit
Translation: car manufacturers see 50% increased profits on batteries; consumer pricing remains unchanged
Ancient_Persimmon@reddit
More like car manufacturers stand to start making a profit.
the_house_from_up@reddit
Bingo. Aside from Tesla, is anyone selling EVs at a profit currently?
nucleartime@reddit
Porsche probably, because lul Porsche margins.
TerrorDact@reddit
Can confirm.
Recoil42@reddit
Volvo is actually beating Tesla on EV gross margins right now. Toyota claims gross profitability, which likely means net profitability. BMW is profitable, though it's unclear by how much — likely a lot, though. GM has also signalled profitability on the Blazer EV and Equinox EV.
JTibbs@reddit
Does the Lightning not sell at a profit?
the_house_from_up@reddit
Admittedly, it's been a bit since I last heard/read, but Ford was losing tens of thousands on every Lightning/Mach-E they sold.
JTibbs@reddit
From what i can see, it was he electric division itself reporting losses of $132,000 per F-150 lightning they sold that quarter.
What that looks like to me, is taking ‘losses’ for your investment in the electric manufacturing infrastructure up front to offset revenue from across the business in a bid to not pay taxes.
So not really losses yet, more like using your invetment as a tax write off now
WingerRules@reddit
Attempt at product dumping to gain market share
gnartung@reddit
All of them when looking at just variable costs, probably. All the sob stories you see in the media and from the car execs about lack of profitability around EV lines is because they’re all jumpstarting assembly lines at gargantuan scale, meaning the overall endeavor is still deeply in the red due to their fixed costs. The vehicles themselves are likely all profitable though.
Oh_ffs_seriously@reddit
Stellantis.
Ancient_Persimmon@reddit
Maybe BMW, since they have decent volume, their EVs are on a shared platform and they're able to charge what they want, more or less.
But profit hasn't been easy so far for most.
fractalife@reddit
I.e. they'll be making so much money they'll be forced to report about 10% of their profit.
Ancient_Persimmon@reddit
That's a new one. The rest gets hidden under a big couch cushion?
fractalife@reddit
Legal, documented, and frequently discussed tax avoidance is a new one to you? I guess you'd be one of today's 10k if you weren't so incredulous about it.
t33po@reddit
I think the market is competitive enough to lower prices. This isn’t some cartel/duopoly situation. The Mitsubishis and FCAs that are struggling to survive have incentives to price properly.
PoorMansTonyStark@reddit
Or they just make the cars bigger for the same price. Since you know, that's what everyone wants, right?
cubs223425@reddit
Hopefully that gets the Hummer to the weight of an ICE semi+trailer before too much longer!
samurai1226@reddit
They are telling us battery tech and EVs will become competitive and cheap for at like 5 years now and in fact these cars are more expansive than ever. I highly doubt anything will change at all in the upcoming future, especially since all carmakers still don't make profit with EVs but sink billions into it
chandy_dandy@reddit
EVs and gas cars are literally closer in price parity today than they were 5 years ago, your impressions of the world don't represent real data
Quit looking at a taycan and comparing it to a camry
faizimam@reddit
Evs today are full featured and compete with premium and luxury cars. There is no base model Ev you can buy.
As materials cost goes down cheaper models can be built.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
I swear I've been seeing articles like this for multiple years now.
I don't just want cheaper batteries. I would like better range. I had a Model 3 Long Range, it wasn't good for MY needs.
chandy_dandy@reddit
they don't have to be the correct fit for you if you're an outlier
300 miles is the 98% use-case, they're not going to budge off of that number until batteries become so cheap that for most people it is an obvious gimme to upgrade, and then they'll just make that the default option
You should get a PHEV if you want electric daily + range
RabidRomulus@reddit
Right? I can "charge" my gas car in 2 minutes and then drive 500+ miles before needing to refuel.
EVs need to approach that level of convenience for a lot of people before being an option for them
Nyxlo@reddit
Why do you need better range, rather than just quicker charging?
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
I would like better range and quick charging.
But if I have to choose one then I'd rather have longer range. I don't want to constantly stop my journey to recharge.
Nyxlo@reddit
But that's what you already do with gas cars, though. I assume they don't stick huge gas tanks into all ICE vehicles because most people don't care.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
What part of "MY needs" don't people understand? The current crop of vehicles aren't good enough for my needs and my family.
And no, I don't pull over all the time. In my current car on long trips I don't need to pull over until 540ish miles and then it only takes 5-10 minutes and I'm back on the road.
Nyxlo@reddit
I'm trying to understand where your needs come from. The "then it only takes 5-10 minutes" part is exactly what is addressed by faster charging, and seems to be what the industry is focusing more on. So I assume a gas car with a 400 mile range would also not meet your needs, then?
faizimam@reddit
As charging infrastructure improves, that choice becomes more interesting.
If charging is easy under 15 mins and reliable, are you willing to accept a smaller battery if its cheaper?
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
Me personally? No. I need range longer than I need charging speed. If I can do my full day of driving and come back home and charge? That's great. If I need to stop 4 times at 15 minutes a piece? I've lost an hour.
And if you count in the time to a charger and having to possibly wait 15 minutes for others to finish? That's even more time.
I'm not against BEV. I want them to improve. But I'm also tired of others telling me that I should want X when I need Y.
faizimam@reddit
I actually am living this choice. I bought a standard range ioniq 5. This means it has a real world highway range of about 180 miles, as opposed to 250 for the regular version.
But my car still charges 10% to 80% in 18 mins.
Last night I drove from new Jersey to Montreal. Non stop that's 5 and a half hours. Subtracting the line at the border it actually took me 6 and a half hours, with three 20 mins stops. 1 hour added.
Car cost $6000 less than the long range model, which does that trip with 2 stops, 10 mins and 15 mins, 25 mins total.
For me it was worth it, as the lower trim was the most I could afford. But that's interesting question that more people will be asking themselves
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
In my Model 3 LR. I took a trip from Near Bay Area CA to Seattle. Normally 10 hours if I don't waste time or 11 if I waste time getting food etc.
In my Model 3 with "the best EV infrastructure in the US" it took me 15 hours. Some chargers didn't work, some were full so I had to wait, etc. So there and back took 30 hours. 10 extra hours. And this is a trip my family does multiple times a year. So nah man. I'm good.
faizimam@reddit
Good thing we are spending hundreds of billions of dollars to improve charging infrastructure.
On that route There are new locations coming online almost every day.
Infrastructure won't be an issue for long
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
And that's great. I'm not against it. But until that's in place, I can't spend my money again on an EV.
Simon_787@reddit
You can already get >330 miles (530 Km) with a Model 3 LR.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
Had one. Never got anywhere close Tesla's estimate. And after putting 35k miles in 1 year, the range had dropped by 10%.
Simon_787@reddit
That's a 70 mph range test, not Teslas estimate. Click the link.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
What part of "I had the car" don't you get? I don't give a fuck about a test when I had the car and never got close. The best I ever got was 304 miles.
Simon_787@reddit
Ok, you clearly didn't get my point.
Range improves with newer models and this is the Model 3 facelift that came out \~1 year ago and improved range again.
I'm guessing you had an older model, but you didn't tell us.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
2022 model. And it's not a phone, People can't just keep buying new cars. And again, there were tests with my model that got better than me, which doesn't matter since I never saw the result.
Simon_787@reddit
You said you wanted better range and I showed you that newer models have better range. What exactly is your problem?
Practically every EV that gets a facelift right now is getting a range bump, sometimes significantly. That trend will probably continue.
Rabo_McDongleberry@reddit
My current car does 500-540 miles between 75-80mph. Come back and remind me when an electric car that is less than $45k and can do that without me having to watch how I drive and I can charge it fully in less than 10 minutes.
Simon_787@reddit
So just wait..? Idk what your point is anymore.
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Celsius1234@reddit
Waiting for EV’s to drop prices.
Betancorea@reddit
It’s been happening in Australia with price drops across the Chinese EV brands.
We get two kinds of responses to that. One crowd takes it as a sign of failure with how EV prices are dropping so quickly whereas the other are pleased EV prices are dropping to levels affordable by the masses.
faizimam@reddit
Most manufacturers are selling at a loss or even, more profits for them means they increase supply.
More supply is critical in the lobg run and wil reduce prices
markeydarkey2@reddit
It's been happening, especially on the used market.
the_house_from_up@reddit
I wouldn't hold my breath.
Jimmytootwo@reddit
The entire industry is going through pains im not worried but gas car mfgs are in pain also. The costs are through the roof There is no safe place to hide. Take your medicine or take the bus
thelonewolfmaster@reddit
I'm waiting until we go all electric for my next vehicle
guy_incognito784@reddit
That's a relief.
For a second I was scared that maybe my car would stop depreciating like a rock.
PiggypPiggyyYaya@reddit
Remember the $55,000cdn Hyundai Ioniq 5. That needed a new $50,000 battery.
No_Membership5430@reddit
It probably means those materials are obsolete now because of new technology
themasterofbation@reddit
These predictions never materialize to the end consumer.
I remember hearing the same thing about batteries ages, ages ago...yet my AAA batteries are still expensive AF. Explain that?
roox911@reddit
I just bought 48 aaa super alkaline batteries for $10 bucks. Is that expensive?
I also have a few sets of rechargeable lithium aaa's that I paid about a buck each that are like 4 years old now and have had hundreds of charges.
Jack-of-the-Shadows@reddit
Buy a set of eneloops and use them for a decade. Cost per change like 1 cent. Or are you stupid? (I assume yes if that whole question was not bait).
ToastyMozart@reddit
Probably because there's less economy of scale. Most stuff that needed disposable alkaline cells before use rechargeable lithium batteries nowadays, because the latter got super cheap.
RiftHunter4@reddit
I wonder what they attribute this to. I have a hard time seeing the current situation changing that quickly.
Solid State Batteries are not coming to EV's for quite a long time. Apparently, they're hard to mass produce. I've only seen one company that has managed to make a Commercially available product with them so far.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
Yeah, either they are huffing some hopium over there in Manhattan, or Goldman Sachs is bag-holding EV stocks.
EVs are the fastest-depreciating type of vehicle right now; indicating a flattening of demand for EVs, as early adopters reach saturation and people in this economy don’t want to blow $40k on a new vehicle. It seems more like we’re reaching a ceiling of EV demand at current prices, and the EV revolution that wall street predicted isn’t happening…at least not yet.
CUDAcores89@reddit
question: why do people even care about a cars depreciation?
I keep my cars until they die. Like, completely die. Like the transmission or the engine need to blow and leave me on the side of the road.
When you reach this point, your car is worth scrap. Or even if you keep your car longer than this, its value depreciates to under $5000.
In that case, it doesn’t matter if the car holds value or not. Because I will be driving this car for so many years (usually 10+ years), that I don’t expect to be able to sell it for anything meaningful when I’m done.
narcistic_asshole@reddit
Let me present you the drastically different situations me and my girlfriend are in. We both have cars that had similar MSRPs and both have 80-85k miles
My gf has a 2017 Jeep Compass. She wants to move on from it because it has a variety of electrical issues, but its KBB value is 6k and she still owes 8k on it.
Meanwhile I have a 2019 Civic si. KBB lists its value at $17-18k. I'm debating flipping it next spring for something nicer before I have to start doing some more expensive preventive maintenance on it.
The biggest difference (besides mine being paid off) is the resale value of our vehicles. Though both of our cars were worth ~$25k new, mine is worth about $10-12k more than hers now.
CUDAcores89@reddit
That civic is still 5 years from needing major repairs. And my situation is different because I do a lot of auto repairs myself. I just replaced the rear shocks on my 2007 Chevy impala myself. A shop wanted $1000 to do it so I did it myself for $250.
This is also why I have a second car. I used my first car to get to work and the second one sat on jack stands until the parts came in.
AmericanExcellence@reddit
why are you letting your cars get to a point that their engines or transmissions blow and leave you stranded? that shouldn't happen with proper maintenance.
CUDAcores89@reddit
Because I keep my cars until they are 15-20 years old.
ALL cars will eventually fail. Especially if you live somewhere in the rust belt. Rubber dries up, plastic cracks, and pushing fail. It’s called aging, and every car does it. You could keep a car parked indoors for 30+ years and things will still break on the car just because the car is older.
I also do a ton of work on my car myself. I do all fluid changes, brakes, and some suspension work myself. That saves me thousands of dollar a year and allows me to keep cars on the road that would otherwise be cost-prohibitive for most people.
KillenX@reddit
Most cars are older than 15 years where I live :D You really don't need an incredible amount of maintenance to keep it running for that long and quite a bit longer
CUDAcores89@reddit
You obviously don't live in the rust belt.
The salt spray we put in roads absolutely destroys our cars here. Rust eats through everything in the car from the rocker panels to the subframe mounts. If you drive your car in the winter, it's just inevitable.
You CAN delay the process by using an oil-based undercoating on your vehicle once a year to add 10+ years of life to the car. But around year 20, all cars fail.
KillenX@reddit
Truly, I do not, but we also salt our roads and have rainy/snowy seasons. There is no person I know that doesn't use their car in the winter to save it from rust, although I guess it is more common for people to repair rust issues here?
max_power1000@reddit
Even if you have seasons and treated roads, most people globally do not put the sheer mileage on it that your average american does.
CUDAcores89@reddit
What country do you live in? Because I’m from the United States.
Specialist-Size9368@reddit
Have you ever had an old high mileage car? Shit can go wrong without any warning. It can be running perfectly fine one minute and fail to run the next with even the best maintenance. Some makes/models are better than others, but a lot of the people yapping about their 15-20 year old car gloss over the times it didn't get them to where they were going.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
Answer: you are not most people
Also, the answer isn’t because we’re all just hopeless consumers and not enlightened like you. People’s needs change and there are all kinds of legitimate reasons for switching vehicles.
Also, the depreciation isn’t the main point I’m making, even though it will sting EV buyers. The steep depreciation is a proxy for low demand.
CUDAcores89@reddit
Sounds like a good opportunity for a consumer like me to pick up a cheap used EV that has depreciated a ton.
max_power1000@reddit
You can already do that. 4-5 year old Tesla Model 3s are available around $20k, and Ys that same age in desirable trims can be had under $30k all day long, usually selling for less than half of their original transaction prices with average mileage (12-15k per year). Their MSRP cuts combined with demand drying up and Hertz unloading a huge chunk of their EV rental fleet have cratered the market.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
Sure, nothing’s stopping you
CUDAcores89@reddit
If I didn't like in an apartment I would actually do this:
Get a cheap used EV like a nissan leaf. Use it as an "around town" car to just get to the grocery store and back.
Buy a full-size Sedan or crossover. And use that for hauling and driving out of state.
Owning two cars allows you to fix one car yourself when the other is broken down.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
Yeah, I mean the whole house/apartment thing is a major factor limiting EV demand. I don’t see that changing anytime soon as houses get less and less affordable.
As someone who has owned multiple cars at a time, the catch is you have to maintain two cars. Two sets of tires, maintenance intervals, etc. And you pay for insurance and registration on both. It’s a PITA and drain on your wallet.
Seems like it would make the most sense financially to just keep the Prius. $5K will buy a heck of a lot of gas. Plus saving on the maintenance, insurance, and hassle.
RiftHunter4@reddit
It makes purchases riskier and quickly puts you underwater with your financing. If anything happens where you need to sell it, you are immediately out of a huge amount of money even if the car is fairly new.
CUDAcores89@reddit
That's different for me then.
Part of buying a car and owning the same vehicle for 15-20 years means I can put money in the stock market and spend that time saving up for a new car. That way my money works for me instead of for the banks.
I've never had a car payment and probably never will. The last car I bought (a 2022 Toyota Prius just three months ago) I paid in cash. And when I get rid of this car in 2039, i'll buy another car in cash.
backyardengr@reddit
If you have decent credit you can easily get a near 0% rate financing a car. Thats 30k you can invest for 5% that you are missing out on by buying cash. Financing a car will also boost your credit and save you a ton of money mortgaging a house. Your mindset is 30 years dated
CUDAcores89@reddit
Not quite.
You buy the car with 0% financing, then keep that money you saved up for decades in the stock market. Then the money continues to work for you even longer.
backyardengr@reddit
Right. Which makes buying a car cash dumb. Auto financing is some of the cheapest loans you can get, it’s silly not to take advantage of that.
CUDAcores89@reddit
Wasn’t in my case.
I bought a used Prius and the lowest rate I got with auto financing was 11%. There is no easily available investment that pays more than 11% interest. So cash buying made the most sense.
Since I had the cash to buy the car (just not with me) I “financed” the car then paid it off the day after I got home. I just got my cars title in the mail.
Specialist-Size9368@reddit
For mere there are two scenarios. Daily drivers and toy cars.
Daily drivers I care because at some point the reliability of the vehicle comes into question. I can do all the maintenance but once you get over a certain age / mileage it just isn't going to be as reliable. Not a big deal if you are driving around town, but if you are doing a 14+ hour road trip hauling something in the bed a breakdown can become a massive problem. Worse modern vehicles have systems I cannot fix unless I have very expensive scan tools. Some of which are only available to dealers.
Toy cars or why i didn't buy an Emira. If the worst happens and I need funds I'd rather have my money in something that I will get most of it out of. I also don't know that I will want to keep it forever so why take a bath on it?
Nefilim314@reddit
Everyone acts like their car is going to be the next AP1 S2000 auctioned at Soethby’s for more than the original MSRP.
Particular_Flower111@reddit
It matters more for EVs because each new iteration offers tangible improvements in range/performance. Similar to how new versions of the iphone early on had big changes, but the current new models are barely different. As the technology matures, the benefits of upgrading are diminished and resale values hold better.
The Taycan is a great example. The first generation compared to the current is a substantial improvement across the board. The old 991 to 992 transition was much less significant.
Simon_787@reddit
The other way of saying this is that you can get great deals on used BEVs.
Specialist-Size9368@reddit
EV's are rapidly depreciating because the technology is making massive jumps. Cars are not doing that so the difference between the last model and the current model isn't much to write home about. In some cases the new product is considered worse.
reacTy@reddit
It's mostly based on technology that is coming out right now. Both BYD and CATL will release 6C cells at the end of the year. Then you have ZEEKR 007 (Geely/Volvo) which has 5.5C battery that can charge from 10 to 80% in 10 minutes. We have multiple cars that can charge in 10 minutes in China right now. Soon even 5 min charge will be a reality. That will greatly increase the demand for EVs. If you buy an EV that can charge in 7 minutes it will no longer become outdated in few years like when we went from 30min to 80% to 20 min to 80%. Huge difference in few years. 10 mins saved in charging time in few years of technology development. But when you go from 7 minutes to 6 minutes then it is no longer a huge jump, meaning those modern EVs should in theory hold their value for longer.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
That may be true in China, but the government in the US seems united in keeping high tariffs on EVs so we likely aren’t going to see that tech anytime soon.
Volvo sells EVs here under the Polestar brand, but they have the same technology as everyone else and they’re just as expensive.
reacTy@reddit
Well, UK and the most of the world doesn't have any tariffs on Chinese EVs. Plus Chinese battery manufacturers have plants in Hungary, Germany and so on. BYD factory in Hungary so no tarrifs. There are no tarrifs on Chinese batteries in the EU.
KeyLime314159265@reddit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-04/eu-votes-to-impose-tariffs-of-up-to-45-on-china-made-evs
Evilmoustachetwirler@reddit
Of course EV's were going to depreciate like crazy. That's the cost of being an early adopter. It's no different from any other new technology whether it be phones, laptops, whatever. Scale, competition, efficiency improvements bring the price of new models down, throw in some technology advancements and the old models become less desirable.
That's why early adopters tend to be wealthy people who put a high value on having the hot new thing.
How quickly we went from "EV's are too expensive, I'll consider when they come down in price" to " I'm not buying an EV they depreciate too fast." The issue is, in a fast information world, the media pulls one month of data and calls the sky is falling, reality is, we had massive growth and now it's taking a breather, which is totally normal, continued exponential growth is not, especially in economically challenging times.
We've got Tesla models getting a bit long in the tooth, the Germans putting out over priced EV's largely built on ice platforms which have pretty ordinary efficiency, and tariffs being thrown at cheaper imported models. The market could well be waiting for the next milestone to be reached.
StatusCount7032@reddit
People want evs. But they also want reliable infrastructure and evs that aren’t solely designed and priced for the rich. I escaped Milton and took shelter in Miami. People were lined up to charge their evs at a ccs station at a mall. Only one ccs port worked.
Ancient_Persimmon@reddit
No one was lined up at gas stations though, right?
StatusCount7032@reddit
Hmmm. Yeah, they were, because there was a shortage of gas.
Specialist-Size9368@reddit
You are glossing over the infrastructure required for gas vehicles to run. Super common for gas to run out before a major storm. Doesn't help that gas deliveries stop before major storms because the trucks transporting them don't want to get stuck.
spewing-oil@reddit
We had a tornado roll through our neighborhood earlier this year. People were lined up for blocks so get gas. If they drove 10 mins in any direction they would have had no wait. People are dumb sometimes.
jrileyy229@reddit
If Goldman did the research and then just put it out publicly for everyone to see, there's a reason. They've positioned themselves in a way this article is going to generate them money
frsguy@reddit
What this article actually means is that auto manufacturers raise profits by 50% while keeping the prices the same.
AmericanExcellence@reddit
battery prices have already collapsed by almost 100%. any further reduction will be relatively marginal.
Shark00n@reddit
Are we even recycling them at scale?
Fuck it, make it cheaper
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