North Korea blows up parts of inter-Korean road on its side of border, Seoul says
Posted by improbablydrunknlw@reddit | PrepperIntel | View on Reddit | 79 comments
improbablydrunknlw@reddit (OP)
Between the increase in the posturing here and around Taiwan, things sure seem like they're heating up.
Mouthshitter@reddit
Here's a scenario, China tells NK to attack SK, and while the US is shifting its resources to help SK Isreal and Ukraine. China uses the chaos to start a blitz invasion on Taiwan
melympia@reddit
If NK "wants" to invade SK, why would they blow up their own roads to the border, slowing themselves down?
RandomDudeYouKnow@reddit
But why? China will get nothing out of the Semiconductor industry and will lose huge numbers of soldiers and material.
SilenceDobad76@reddit
Chinese nationalism. If it was ever rational they wouldn't be preparing for said war in the first place.
BardanoBois@reddit
Right Hong Kong was the same but easy to manipulate the country from the inside. Taiwan? Not so much. Needs to force their hand a bit more.
China believes Taiwan is just an extension of China..
fortevn@reddit
Taiwan is extremely important as a control for sea lanes. You can forget about the semiconductor (both US and China have been ramping up this industry in the past decade, they even started to invest in other countries such as Vietnam).
The Taiwan Strait is a critical waterway for sea travelling between northeast Asia and Southeast Asia, extending toward Europe. It has a crazy traffic connecting other important ports in SK, JP, Singapore, Philippines, etc. It's also a heavy chokepoint for military, especially submarine navigation.
It literally stands between US critical allies in the region. SK and JP in the north, Phlippines and Australia in the south. And along with the naval aspect, who controls Taiwan also control the air space there.
A lot of news only talk about the production aspect. Yes, TSMC is extremely important, but it's just a small part of why Taiwan is crucial to the US and China.
citizenduMotier@reddit
Goes back to the Chinese civil war. The last remnants of the republic fled to Taiwan. There has never been a peace treaty signed. The CCP still sees this as a civil war that can only be over through the surrender of Republicans on Taiwan. So with that in mind it's easier to imagine the CCP doing something that makes no sense..
TerminallyBlitzed@reddit
There is no reason other than nationalism and that Taiwan is the enemy and they must be defeated. It’s a pride thing at this point.
kingofthesofas@reddit
There may be a mentality that if they can't have it no one can. I don't know if they think that way but you could see that as logic that might appeal to them.
AntiGravityBacon@reddit
SK is the absolute last place China would want a mass of US troops if they're going to invade Taiwan. It's basically asking the US to pre-stage troops on your doorstep.
Rev-Dr-Slimeass@reddit
I'm not quite sure I'd say that. China still likely doesn't have the manpower to take Taiwan and this isn't that weird for Korea.
I'm definitely of the opinion that if something happens in one of those it will kick off in both, but I think this cluster fuck still has a couple years of baking before its ripe.
improbablydrunknlw@reddit (OP)
China is currently blockading Taiwan under the guise of training.
https://www.npr.org/2024/10/14/g-s1-28148/china-military-exercises-taiwan
oh-bee@reddit
China ain’t blockading shit. Look up how many harpoon missiles Taiwan owns.
If China tried a blockade the headline would be “Taiwan sinks Chinese ships!”
DetectiveMoosePI@reddit
I don’t know that a blockade would be ultimately successful on China’s part. They would surely cause massive suffering and genocide, but the Taiwanese are well prepared. Almost 20 years ago when I started college I became friends with an exchange student from Taiwan. He eventually had to return home for mandatory military service, but being a political science major, I asked him as many questions as I could. They are well prepared to shift their economy to survival mode if required.
Tyler119@reddit
They import 70% of food so there is that issue if a blockade every happened for real
Which I don't think it actual ever will.
Larkeiden@reddit
The blockade would work only if the USA doesn't interfere. Is China ready to gamble? I don't think it is ready yet.
lmkwe@reddit
A blockade is an act of war. The US will be forced to break it and will engage.
Larkeiden@reddit
Will it? Most americans would probably be against war
Lazy_Transportation5@reddit
Most Americans were against war back before World War 2. Recruitment was low, general favorability towards participating in a conflict was at a low, and it was common to hear Americans share frustrations about sending weapons/aid to Europe. Guess now we’re just hitting that fourth turning. We’ll have our Pearl Harbor and Americans will… Hopefully… Unify under a common enemy and a renewed sense of patriotism.
Larkeiden@reddit
What if China doesn't strike the US? Because humans do not care if they are not directly impacted. 9/11 and pearl harbor are good examples of that.
HomoExtinctisus@reddit
US has tremendous economic interest in Taiwan. So the big money corps will lean on Washington and big media to protect their interests.
BardanoBois@reddit
Nah
kingofthesofas@reddit
If China actually blockaded Taiwan couldn't the United states both blockade China and break the blockade if they wanted to? It's not like the US would sit back and do nothing.
odo_0@reddit
I think the US should train in convoy protection to get supplies into Taiwan. China would either have to fire on the US navy or back down.
Hopefully, they choose to back down because history has shown bad stuff happens to countries that touch our boats.
ktmln91@reddit
I think the US should ban imports of chinese shit if they try to blockade Taiwan. Just impose prohibiting tariffs on everything. It will deal a huge economic blow to China and will motivate companies to move production to friendlier countries.
thefedfox64@reddit
Yikes, make the US economy take a nose dive. Car parts were already bad during Covid. Whoever wants that policy better be ready for mass unemployment and 1 term only.
TryptaMagiciaN@reddit
These people dont understand how tariffs work. They think China would pay the increase in costs. When Chinese and US capitalists will 100% pass that along to the US consumer as it has always been done. These people do not understand economics whatsoever and who can blame them when it is more a religion than a science and they only know what their podcast priests tell them.
thefedfox64@reddit
To be honest, I do not completely understand tariffs but I know those costs are always passed on. I have asked people, but everytime they fail to acknowledge that they are not passed on to the consumer
KJ6BWB@reddit
Most traffic through the Strait there is internal Chinese shipping. Does it hurt Taiwan? Yes. Does it actually hurt China even more? Yeah.
therapistofcats@reddit
They've been doing on and off blockade simulations for like 5 years now. It's hardly an escalation.
ZeePirate@reddit
The one thing China always has is a surplus of man power.
You don’t need trained soliders to do human waves
KJ6BWB@reddit
Taiwan runs its gas and oil pipelines through the beaches so they can set everything on fire if China were to attack.
The machines themselves, the thing China really wants, are wired with kill switches that will destroy the machines if China were to make it that far: https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/tsmcs-euv-machines-are-equipped-with-a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion
But even if the machines weren't destroyed by a suicide button, they're so fragile that they need constant maintenance and ASML is the only country that can do that. ASML has already said they won't service the machines if China were to take over Taiwan, and they won't sell any machines to China. So it's literally impossible for China to do anything else other than take over what would then be a failed nation-state, adding more mouths to feed and support when China's economic position is already fragile.
It would be pointlessly stupid for China to try to invade Taiwan.
Chogo82@reddit
I also believe China will not be able to take the Taiwanese mainland unless they have far more advanced AI drone tech than we have ever imagined. Taiwan has three islands closer to the Chinese main land that are ripe for the taking however. The blockade should prevent the Taiwanese from being able to send help.
PremiumTempus@reddit
I hope you’re right. We’re at a very unique point in history with regard to exponential technological development, and a global conflict right now would likely alter the future to an extent which we cannot predict- the actions of the next few decades will set the course of humanity for the next thousands of years.
Upset_Huckleberry_80@reddit
Russia - it’s all about Russia and the war in Ukraine. The axis of assholes thought they’d walk all over the Ukrainians and the end result of all this has been utter confusion and chaos and the Chinese are having to accelerate their timetables of dickheadedness because Russia is sucking them dry and stoking the fires of chaos to try to divert resources from Ukraine.
fardandshid1821@reddit
Puts on earth
Thoraxe474@reddit
Maybe they're prepping in case trump wins the election and they can do whatever they want
viperpl003@reddit
Trump already said he's not going to involve Americans in a war. If or allies get attacked (besides Israel for obvious reasons) I'm worried we're just going to bury our heads in the sand.
ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit
This isn’t an escalation, it’s a tactical preparation
soooooonotabot@reddit
It's hard to tell these days. Usually I would say that it's just noise but now im not so sure
BardanoBois@reddit
Right we were saying "posturing" and "saber rattling" when we saw Russia have 100k+ soldiers amass at the border of Ukraine.. Now look..
This could be something.. Or not. Who knows. But we cannot always wave things off like it's nothing because we are scared shitless and don't know how to process the situation.
yaykaboom@reddit
Wild that the russians achieved nothing after all that. They managed to utterly destroyed their reputation and economy while bringing down innocents with them.
BardanoBois@reddit
They achieved nothing but still caused many deaths unnecessarily. Doesn't matter what they have or have not achieved or what reputation they ruined.
They most likely got what they wanted. Chaos.
NK and China have their own motives too, and are willing to do the same..
strings___@reddit
Russia and China will end up like NK at this rate.
HeadlineINeed@reddit
What would blowing their road do?
ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit
Former military here. A very key preparation for major conflict, and preparatory defense against invasion is to blow up, Sabotage, and / or block major road ways to slow the enemy. I’m no expert, but based on my knowledge, this is a huge red flag. This tells me something BIG is about to pop off.
HeadlineINeed@reddit
Oh so SK or others don’t invade?
ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit
Basically
No_Positive_279@reddit
Tactical preparation to go into Ukraine at larger numbers. They “know” South Korea won’t attack, but still have to posture as if it’s a possibility. And if they are sending troops into Ukraine, that number will increase tremendously over the course of months.
Jubjars@reddit
You think China will criticize someone who deserves it for once, now that their love-hate ally is now fighting in Europe?
Or will they blame that nasty west?
YourDementedAunt@reddit
"Not my circus, not my monkey" will be chinas response.
Efficient_Glove_5406@reddit
Yes, their fucking monkey.
Designer_Emu_6518@reddit
Or a Taiwan invasion by China
ElanthianKittyMomma@reddit
It's not posturing, they know what they have chosen and think they have a snowball's chance in hell (they don't).
AntiSonOfBitchamajig@reddit
Report and video
WittyDefense41@reddit
They are cozying up to Russia, and they know the U.S. wants to punish them for it.
DarkOmen597@reddit
If accurate, this is potentially a huge deal
guccigraves@reddit
Why
improbablydrunknlw@reddit (OP)
If, and this is a huge if, this isn't just standard Kim fare of posturing in continually escalating ways and actually leads to war, there is enough artillery aimed at soul to level it using conventional means. North Korea has functional nukes and Kim is not what could be considered rational.
All that and NK is in an ever tightening alliance with Russia (rumors are NK troops are already fighting there ), Iran, and are still a vassle state of China. So if they're doing this to create a distraction or second major front, it could be a prelude to wider spreading major conflicts, or NK knows what Iran is planning after the Israel retribution and they're going to play a part in some way.
That is all maybes and what ifs though and we don't have any actual ideas.
hotfezz81@reddit
Why would blowing his own road up have any chance of leading to war?
DarkOmen597@reddit
This would be considered a shaping operation
yaykaboom@reddit
The assumption is that they are PREPARING for war by blowing up infrastructure that could be used by their enemies to march into pyongyang.
People have this assumption because NK has been heavily fortifying their borders. Also the alliance between Iran, Russia, and China with the ongoing war in Ukraine, the possible war between iran and israel, and the possible assault on Taiwan by China.
People are speculating that by opening 3 fronts they could “perhaps” overwhlem the Americans.
This is a very big IF mind you.
frizzlefry99@reddit
It is probably just more NK bullshit, but it could be preparation for war, so SK could not use that road to mount a counter attack…
Audere1@reddit
TL;DR: big if true
ratcuisine@reddit
I guess you could say it's a Dark Omen.
yaykaboom@reddit
They say it was in response to the SK drones flying into NK. It might be an excuse to disguise their prep for war or its just another nothing burger.
First_manatee_614@reddit
Can you elaborate please?
Leader_2_light@reddit
Stocks at record highs.
Yawn
Chogo82@reddit
People have been calling this strategic scenario as a potential response when it looked like Israel was trying to spread its war campaign. Now that Israel has fired on the UN peacekeepers, it's clear Israel will not let anyone stop it.
xm45-h4t@reddit
They blow up the road so SK can’t use it to bring troops (tanks and ground vehicles) to NK
Verucapep@reddit
See that guy from South Korea asking about North Korean nukes wasn’t unreasonably worried. Seems like stuff is heating up over there.
TurnipSensitive4944@reddit
See until something more significant happens this is just businesses as usual
Initial-Use-5894@reddit
i wonder if this has something to do with the “october surprise” the pentagon was talking about this summer.
AB-1987@reddit
It is October, and winter is upon us. Probably only to ensure food deliveries.
WesternResist1057@reddit
Whenever fat kim blows something stupid up, it’s signal that he needs more food aide… he ain’t doing shit.
They hate us because they ain’t us
Same same, but different
Jedi-Skywalker1@reddit
Its highly unlikely this will result in North Korea attempting to invade South Korea. The North does things like that every so often to increase domestic support of their regime. If they attemptedan invasion they would never be able to hold any territory of significance or economic benefit, so they really stand to gain nothing from an actual escalation.
improbablydrunknlw@reddit (OP)
Update
South Korea fires shots south of border after North Korea blows up road links
https://www.nknews.org/2024/10/south-korea-fires-shots-south-of-border-after-north-korea-blows-up-road-links/
Naive_Thanks_2932@reddit
How can we be best prepared if China makes a move on Taiwan sooner rsther than later?