#Climate feedback loops and tipping points

“Awareness and research need to increase on climate feedback loops.”

Yah think?

“Feedback loops are processes that can either amplify or reduce the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Many significant feedback loops enhance warming. At least 28 amplifying feedback loops have been identified (tables 2a, 2b).”

“A particularly concerning feedback loop is the permafrost feedback loop, which involves rising temperatures causing permafrost thawing. This process releases more carbon dioxide and methane, leading to further warming.”

“Areas of active climate feedback loop research include permafrost–cloud interactions (de Vrese et al. 2024), glacier meltwater (Pelle et al. 2023), and biodiversity (Weiskopf et al. 2024).”

“Because feedback loops are not yet fully integrated into climate models, current emissions reduction plans might fall short in adequately limiting future warming.”

“Some climate feedback loops are linked to tipping points, potentially triggering major and irreversible changes in the Earth system without further pushing by human activities.”

“Tipping elements are biophysical systems on Earth with tipping point behavior that contribute to regulating the climate system (Lenton et al. 2008). They have recently been assessed for their tipping sensitivity.”

“Five of sixteen climate tipping elements are likely to cross their tipping points at 1.5°C: the Greenland ice sheet, the West Antarctic ice sheet, boreal permafrost, low-latitude coral reefs, and the Barents Sea Ice (Armstrong McKay et al. 2022).”

The Global Mean Temperature has been ABOVE +1.5°C for over 15 months now. It will probably NOT go below +1.5°C for thousands of years.

“Several climate tipping elements are connected, and if one tips, others may tip, triggering a tipping point cascade (Wunderling et al. 2024).”

“Overall, this points to a complex situation where climate controlling feedback loops and tipping point systems are interconnected in a way that could trigger self-perpetuating processes that amplify warming beyond human control. Therefore, we recommend the IPCC publish a special report on feedback loops and tipping points.”

SS: The Crisis Report - 93 : Let’s be CLEAR about what “Mainstream” Climate Science actually says. (Part Three) Conclusion

Abstract:

The final part of my series on "What Mainstream Climate Science actually states". This summation was aided by the publication of this paper on Oct 8th.

The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth

We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very…

Which spells out the "Mainstream" Climate Science position in detail. In my paper I provide an in-depth walk-through the entire paper with commentary. Starting with "whose names" are on the paper.

"The name of Michael Mann is a giveaway that this is a “mainstream” report from the Moderate faction in Climate Science. An hour’s worth of checking confirms that all of the papers authors are pillars of Moderate Climate Science and espouse the mainstream paradigm about how the Climate System works."

The paper opens a grim warning.

“We are on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster. This is a global emergency beyond any doubt. Much of the very fabric of life on Earth is imperiled. We are stepping into a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis.”

The opening paragraph is DIRE.

“For many years, scientists, including a group of more than 15,000, have sounded the alarm about the impending dangers of climate change driven by increasing greenhouse gas emissions and ecosystem change.”

This is an interesting way to phrase this. They could have simply stated “scientists have sounded the alarm”. Instead they emphasize that there is “a group” of “more than 15,000”.

“For half a century, global warming has been correctly predicted even before it was observed — and not only by independent academic scientists but also by fossil fuel companies (Supran et al. 2023).”

OK. They are saying the predictions that increasing levels of CO2 would cause global warming back in the 70’s were correct. They “predicted” that would cause planetary warming and they were correct. This was predicted “not only” by “independent academic scientists” but also by “fossil fuel companies”.

Despite these warnings, we are still moving in the wrong direction; fossil fuel emissions have increased to an all-time high, the 3 hottest days ever occurred in July of 2024 (Guterres 2024), and current policies have us on track for approximately 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) peak warming by 2100 (UNEP 2023).

If you knew NOTHING else about this paper. That estimate of +2.7°C by 2100 tells you that this paper represents the position of the MODERATE faction in Climate Science. The best ALARMIST model indicates about +5.7°C for the SAME AMOUNT of CO2. However DIRE this paper sounds, it is actually minimizing the amount of warming that could happen.

“Tragically, we are failing to avoid serious impacts, and we can now only hope to limit the extent of the damage.”

“We are witnessing the grim reality of the forecasts as climate impacts escalate, bringing forth scenes of unprecedented disasters around the world and human and nonhuman suffering. We find ourselves amid an abrupt climate upheaval, a dire situation never before encountered in the annals of human existence.”

“We have now brought the planet into climatic conditions never witnessed by us or our prehistoric relatives within our genus, Homo (supplemental figure S1; CenCO2PIP Consortium et al. 2023).”

This paper has already been discussed here in this thread.

https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1g0h250/humanity_faces_a_brutal_future_as_scientists_warn/

However, my paper is a detailed examination of the report on a "line by line" basis.