This is the end result of listening to "bad science".

It wasn't until the 00's that we did an actual comprehensive survey of how much permafrost actually exists. It found 2X more than had been estimated. Which would be of minor interest if that estimate hadn't been part of our Climate Models since the 70's.

In 2008, the first REAL study of Arctic permafrost and its potential to influence the Climate System, DOUBLED the estimate for the amount of organic carbon held in permafrost soils.

Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon to Climate Change: Implications for the Global Carbon Cycle.

How do you think the Moderates dealt with this finding?

As you might expect, they decided that the permafrost would melt SLOWLY and they THEORIZED that the organic carbon in the permafrost would be released SLOWLY via biological processes.

They MINIMIZED the risks in their models because that's the only way to make them fit their theories.

Our models are WRONG.

Arctic permafrost is now a net source of major greenhouse gases — New Scientist 12 April 2024.

An Arctic-wide survey has found that the permafrost region is emitting more carbon into the atmosphere than it absorbs, causing the planet to heat even further.

THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIC CARBON IN THE PERMAFROST TO INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC CO2 LEVEL TO ABOUT 1300PPM.

Half of this frozen organic matter is found in the first 3 meters of the permafrost.

It’s melting. WAY faster than the models indicated it would.

"Observed maximum thaw depths at our sites are already exceeding those projected to occur by 2090 under representative concentration pathway version 4.5."

Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic (2019)

In 2020 the Arctic Institute warned that a 3 degree Celsius increase in global temperatures could melt 30 to 85 percent of the top permafrost layers that exist across the Arctic region.

The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment volume 3, Article number: 168 (Aug 2022)

700,000 years of Organic Carbon have ACCUMULATED in the Permafrost Zone.

In fact, the “Boreal Zone” has functioned as a carbon sink for so long that if you burned all of the oil available in all the reserves around the world, you would still release less carbon than the boreal forest and permafrost is currently holding.

Until recently NO ONE was checking to see if reality was conforming to the Climate Models.

The attitude has been something like this statement from climate researcher Dr. Dessler in an NYT interview in Dec. 2023 about the “unprecedented” warming in 2023.

“On its own, one exceptional year would not be enough to suggest something was faulty with the computer models. Your default position has to be, ‘The models are right.’”

It’s pretty clear. It’s going to be a LOT HOTTER a LOT FASTER than the Moderates thought.

They were WRONG about EVERYTHING.