The future of the regional jet business?
Posted by m71nu@reddit | aviation | View on Reddit | 12 comments
In recent decades, the regional jet market was dominated by Embraer and Bombardier. However, the 2010s brought the potential for major shakeups.
Bombardier exited the regional jet business, selling its C-Series to Airbus (now the A220) and discontinuing production of the CRJ, with the program sold to Mitsubishi. Around the same time, Embraer was set to tie up with Boeing, which would have extended the Boeing-Airbus duopoly to regional jets.
New players also looked poised to enter the market. Mitsubishi primarily acquired the CRJ program to provide a support structure for its own SpaceJet. Together, the SpaceJet and CRJ support infrastructure could have created a strong new competitor.
There were two other notable outsiders:
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The Sukhoi Superjet, which was intended to be the revival of the Russian aircraft industry. However, quality control issues and a lack of international support infrastructure limited its success. The Russian invasion of Ukraine effectively ended any chance the Superjet had outside Russia.
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The Comac ARJ21, which is in use within China. However, it is considered too much of a derivative of the DC-9 to compete globally, and like the Superjet, it lacks a global support network.
The 2010s seemed poised to bring new dynamics to this market, but now it appears to have settled back to the Embraer E-Jets and Airbus A220 (formerly Bombardier's C-Series).
Do you think we’ll see new players enter the regional jet market anytime soon?
TaskForceCausality@reddit
No. Assuming regulatory & scope clauses don’t change, the current CRJ/ERJ setup will be status quo for the foreseeable future. There isn’t enough money on the table to justify a multibillion dollar dedicated regional jet aircraft.
In fact, there wasn’t a market back in the day either- Canadair originally designed the Challenger to be a big and efficient business & short haul cargo jet. It just so happened a small freighter intended for FedEx translated into a really nice mini-airliner that could cheaply replace old & inefficient turboprops of the time. Combine that with deregulation and regional/mainline partnerships in the U.S. and presto, new market segment created.
With scope clauses firmly capping capacity growth & unions (justifiably) not budging on changing scope , there isn’t enough market segment to justify new aircraft. If something new does arrive, it’ll have to conform to U.S. scope limits and will likely be a modern turboprop design to save cost.
discombobulated38x@reddit
I wouldn't be surprised if one of the bizjet airframers takes a stab at it in the next 30 years or so.
Subtotal9_guy@reddit
The CRJ was a stretched out Canadair 600 series.
Hdjskdjkd82@reddit
I think we are reaching the end of what we are used to. Much of the industry is looking at fuel efficiency more than anything else, and anything less than a 100 seats just doesn’t make enough sense from a fuel efficiency standpoint. Larger aircraft can take advantage of larger more heavy yet more fuel efficient high bypass engines. It’s why Bombardier went with the 220 and Embrear rolled out with the E2. The only real market for smaller aircraft is the US market, but with the current technology the cost to develop a sub 100 seat RJ exceeds any return. And the only reason why the US market is interested in sub 100 aircraft is because airlines like to contract flying to regionals, and unions set limits to how much and how big regional airlines can get. Lower labor costs are the only real reason why sub 100 seat aircraft are flying in the US.
freakazoid2718@reddit
The scope clauses in the US have nearly eliminated the RJ market. All of that development Embraer put into the E2 series is wasted in the US, because they either hold too many passengers or are too heavy to meet scope clauses. In fact, Embraer has kept the old E170 production lines open specifically to serve the US market.
Perhaps if the CRJ had sold better about a decade ago then Mitsubishi may have been interested in keeping the manufacturing line open. The extra weight of the large turbofans on new designs is simply too much to meet scope clauses, and now that most of Embraer's production isn't viable in the US, the old CRJs are suddenly looking a lot better.
(And yes, I'm aware that Mitsubishi bought that production line with the intention of kickstarting production of the SpaceJet, but that program is quite thoroughly dead now so the planned CRJ replacement simply won't happen.)
Hdjskdjkd82@reddit
I’m wouldn’t say the scope clause has killed market. Just the RJs of today can’t be used by the airlines of the US, but the E2 is slowly picking up steam elsewhere around the world. My guess is when the regional fleet starts getting tired, US airlines will likely just go away and up-gauge everything. Delta slowly has a little bit with the 220 and keeping the 717 around till who knows when. Will be interesting to see what Americans and United strategy will be.
freakazoid2718@reddit
You're right, I was being a bit hyperbolic - but it somewhat feels like that since the CRJ went out of production and the E2 line isn't useable in the US - right now, if an airline wants to buy an RJ they can only buy an E175. It would have helped if the SpaceJet worked out, but that plane had already turned into a money pit when they paused it in 2020, and they just didn't have a good path to certification (hence the cancellation in 2023).
I agree that the A220 and 717s will keep filling the gap for Delta, and that AA and United are in a bit of trouble - they can't replace aging CRJs or high-capacity E175s, and the next step up for them is a 737 or similar. They can always just run fewer flights on bigger planes for busier routes, but the airports with one or two flights a day on RJs may become a bit interesting to serve.
MovTheGopnik@reddit
What about a new turbo prop design then? Something like a Q400 sized to match the current fleet of E-jets. Obviously the USA has plenty of very thin and long-ish routes thanks to being spread out, but an airframer might encourage current E-jet operators to trade speed for efficiency if jet engine improvements can’t be translated to smaller aircraft very well.
Hdjskdjkd82@reddit
Maybe. In the US we did have turboprops, but all were replaced by jets like the CRJ and the E145, and it’s important to note the aircraft that replaced them were not as fuel efficient either. Turboprops originally lost popularity in the US because airlines found passengers didn’t like them and tended to associate them with 1950s technology. Which hurt ticket sales. It really comes down to marketing, because most US airlines have their RJ flying routes extremely well suited for turboprops. But airlines could also just fly those routes with bigger aircraft also.
gsmitheidw1@reddit
Piaggio P.180 Avanti is still selling, has set some speed records for turbo props too.
I think things will change back in favour of turbo props in terms of efficiency and various future propfan designs.
Hdjskdjkd82@reddit
I don’t think you can stretch the Piaggio to fit 76 passengers…
RedditBecameTheEvil@reddit
Avaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaanti!