China new home prices fall at fastest pace in over 9 years

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Price Decline: New home prices in China fell 5.3% year-on-year in August, the largest drop since May 2015. This is the 14th consecutive monthly decrease, with a 0.7% monthly drop.

Developer Issues: Many developers are heavily indebted, causing delays in project completions and contributing to a surplus of unfinished apartments.

Buyer Confidence: Reduced buyer confidence due to concerns about financial stability and incomplete projects is driving down demand for new homes.

Investment and Sales: Property investment fell by 10.2% and home sales dropped 18% from January to August 2024.

Policy Measures: Measures like mortgage rate cuts and reduced home buying costs have partially revived demand in major cities but are insufficient to reverse the overall decline.

Smaller Cities: Smaller cities with high unsold inventory and fewer restrictions face significant challenges.

Future Outlook: Home prices are expected to decline further by 8.5% in 2024 and 3.9% in 2025.

Government Intervention: Speculation suggests the government may need to directly fund delayed residential projects to stabilize the market.