No changes in US policy on long-range strikes into Russia expected, White House says

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Al_in_the_family@reddit

Russia using long range missle's? Why are they brave and the US isn't?

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Would Russia actually retaliate against a NATO country? Seems like if they did they would get absolutely shidded on. I don't think Russia can handle any more conflict, eventually even North Korea will run out of non expired missiles

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tanmomandlamet@reddit

Does the term Global Thermo Nuclear War mean anything to you?

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RangerRick379@reddit

Does the term MAD mean anything to you ?

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DivideAndKwanquer@reddit

If Russia performed a coup in Canada and gave long range missiles to Canada and gave permission to Canada to strike USA what do you think USA would do? Sit back and take it?

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RangerRick379@reddit

A coup, lol, that’s your comparison to the invasion of Ukraine ?

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WittyDefense41@reddit

We conducted a coup in Ukraine in 2014. You clearly lack basic knowledge about this conflict.

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A_Whole_Costco_Pizza@reddit

Did we also conduct coups in East Germany, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, etc.? Why did these countries all flee Russia's influence, in favor of joining NATO? Did we also conduct coups in Chechnya and Georgia? Is that why Russia invaded and brutally subjugated them?

Or does Russia maybe have a history of Really Fucking Sucking? Maybe there's a huge and storied history of Russia betraying its allies, invading their neighbors, and subjugating every person and square inch of land they can sink their claws into. Maybe there's a really good reason that practically every former USSR/Communist European nation has tried to escape Russia's sphere of influence and sought refuge with the EU, NATO, and/or the collective West.

Maybe the people of Ukraine compared how their neighbors in Poland and Belarus were living, and wanted to be a free westernized democracy like Poland and not a repressed Russian puppet state like Belarus. Maybe the people of Ukraine saw what Russia did in Chechnya and Georgia, and sought sovereignty and security under the umbrella of the West. Maybe the people of Ukraine didn't want to be ruled by a modern day Tsar. Maybe the people of Ukraine remembered how they were treated by Russia under Soviet rule, and did not want to risk returning to that. Maybe the people of Ukraine liked the constitution they had had since 2004, and didn't like that then-President Yanukovych threw it out in 2010. Maybe the people of Ukraine wanted closer ties with the West, and wanted Yanukovych to sign the hugely popular EU trade agreement that was on his desk in 2014, only to feel spurned when Yanukovych refused at the last minute and instead decided to pivot towards Russia. Maybe the people of Ukraine wanted to create a better future for themselves, saw an opportunity to create a better future for themselves, and took that opportunity to make a better future for themselves. Maybe.

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WittyDefense41@reddit

If that were the case, Ukraine would have elected a western friendly leader through free and fair elections. They elected a leader that promised close ties with Russia as opposed to he west. Hence why we had conduct a coup to install our western friendly leader in spite of the democratic processes that had played out in Ukraine.

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antonavramenko@reddit

You are wrong, one of Yanukovych's main election promises was to make closer ties with the EU and sign the association agreement which he literally refused to do. This sparked a wave of peaceful protests, consisting mostly of university students. It is only after one such protest in Kyiv was violently disbanded on 30 November 2013 that the public dissatisfaction turned into outrage and resulted in deadly chashes with the riot police and, ultimately, in Yanukovych's removal from office via the parliament's vote.

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Heffe3737@reddit

Ukraine shook off their own oppressor, as they were sick and tired of living in a Russian puppet state.

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WittyDefense41@reddit

The CIA conducted this for their own interests. A percentage of Ukrainians supported this but not the majority. Especially not in the eastern provinces.

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RangerRick379@reddit

Good thing too

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DivideAndKwanquer@reddit

The coup was in 2014 when the US installed a pro EU government in Ukraine. So Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas to maintain its sphere of influence.

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XXFFTT@reddit

Your order is backwards.

The election in 2014 was held after Russia invaded.

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forkproof2500@reddit

It 100% definitely was not. Coup happened first, secession of Crimea happened after. Much later followed by uprising in Donbass.

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XXFFTT@reddit

Russia invaded in February and the election was held in March.

The election wasn't even held in Crimea because Russia had already annexed it.

Everyone in parliament was against the current president and wanted him out.

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forkproof2500@reddit

What election, it was a coup. And it was in February of 2014, then in March Crimea seceeded from Ukraine, and was independent until 25 May when it voted to join Russia.

Wikipedia is your friend https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum

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XXFFTT@reddit

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Russian_Federation

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Ukrainian_presidential_election

May, Mach, still happened after Russia invaded.

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forkproof2500@reddit

Oh OK you're talking about that election, that was basically a sham to try to legitimize the coup that happened earlier in the year. Most of Donbass and all of Crimea didn't participate at all.

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XXFFTT@reddit

The coup where the president was unanimously voted out of office?

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Wonderful-Elephant11@reddit

You mean when a kremlin stooge was voted out by the people and the government that shot people to stay in office?

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Heffe3737@reddit

Yeah - a LOT of folks in here not understanding the history of Ukraine. The old president was an analog to Lukashenko - just doing Putin’s bidding. The people saw how good their neighbors had it and threw him out. I don’t think the US was sad about the development, but stating it was because of the US is a claim that demands some pretty serious evidence to be taken seriously - especially since it’s one of Putin’s favorite talking points.

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Curious_Donut_8497@reddit

Ukraine invasion is Ukraine and Europe's problem, let them sort it out by themselves or mutually kill themselves and their own people.

Why should anyone else get in the middle of it?

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A_Whole_Costco_Pizza@reddit

Because it's not the 1600s anymore, and things that happen in other parts of the world have both direct and indirect impacts on us and our lives.

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Curious_Donut_8497@reddit

Tell that to your son before sending him to die in another's war.

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A_Whole_Costco_Pizza@reddit

Which Americans are being sent to fight in Ukraine?

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Curious_Donut_8497@reddit

No one so far. Keep sending weapons to Ukraine and count on little Putin to not be crazy/senil enough to not do something more stupid than he has already done.

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Wonderful-Elephant11@reddit

Because we’ve seen this movie before, and it ends poorly for everyone?

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Curious_Donut_8497@reddit

Let them fight and spend their resources killing themselves first, them if needed the USA can enter the fight, not before.

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Wonderful-Elephant11@reddit

That’s not how war works, like at all. And if the west didn’t protect their allies? Well suddenly being allies with Russia and China just makes sense. Because that’s what’s already happening.

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DivideAndKwanquer@reddit

USA will not risk it's national security over Ukraine. Ukraine is not a member of NATO and thus USA is under no obligation (Article 5) to defend them. The trillion dollar military industrial complex wants this war to continue so it can profit from weapon sales by "donating" its old equipment to Ukraine and replenishing NATO with new equipment all while weakening Russia without having to send any boots on the ground itself.

The real losers of this are the Ukrainian people. When Ukraine's government decided that Russian was no longer an official language then the Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine held a referendum to become a part of Russia. Ukraine responded by invading these regions starting a civil war in 2014.

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Heffe3737@reddit

This isn’t it at all. I’ve been studying geopolitics for years - Ukraine if well-managed is a turning point. Here’s the truth:

The world right now is broken into three major powers - Russia, China, and the “west”. Each has their allies, and they all constantly fuck with each other. Right now, the “west” is the strongest, forcing Russia and China into an uneasy alliance of sorts, where they kind of help each other and work together, but still don’t particularly like each other.

So, this war with Ukraine? The US and Europe see it for what it is, an overreach/desperate gambit by Putin. Russia has already exhausted its army, and it rapidly running out of the mountains of old Soviet heavy equipment. Once it’s depleted, Russia will no longer be a force that can constantly threaten and bully its neighbors. A de-fanged Russia means increased trade, increased stability, and most importantly, it isolates China. Because right now, Russia is a foil for China. The US and the west tolerate a lot of China’s bullshit, because it’s a three way standoff. With Russia and Putin out of the picture, suddenly the entire west can start increasing its focus on China and her human rights violation. China, facing a drastically worsening demographic situation and aging population, suddenly risks becoming isolated from much of the world. China would be forced to improve its behavior and comply more with western standards, knock off the hacking and industrial espionage, etc. All of which would also be excellent for the world, improve trade, and bring all around stability.

This is why Ukraine is so important. The MIC won’t be sad about increased sales, but to suggest that it’s only about increased sales is both naive and shortsighted. This is about the future vision of the world, and who controls it. Personally speaking, I think the west’s vision for the world is preferable to China’s, and sure as shit preferable to Russia’s.

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DivideAndKwanquer@reddit

The world is multi-polar. USA, Russia, China, and India are all superpowers vying for resources and influence. I agree that the USA is the most powerful but it's hubris to believe the rest of the world will simply fall in line and allow the USA to rule the planet.

Ukraine's interest to join NATO provoked Russia to invade. Putin wants to restore the Soviet empire. It will not tolerate NATO airbases and missile launchers so close to its border.

As for stability, the situation in Israel is a distraction Russia triggered by having it's ally Iran provide intelligence and weapons to Hamas.

We have never been so close to nuclear war and I hope for mankind's sake the escalation stops soon.

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TennesseeTater@reddit

I think it's a great comparison. Canada has held that grudge firmly since 1812. The syrup grubbing bastards have just been waiting to stab us while our top is turned.

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Kitchen-sink-fixer@reddit

Who you calling syrup grubbing buddy? Let’s go to war RIGHT NOW! Me and you

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Xeelee4@reddit

Unless y'all are bringing Wayne as backup, I ain't worried.

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RangerRick379@reddit

You forgot your /s ?

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Heffe3737@reddit

Calm down, Chamberlain.

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TennesseeTater@reddit

At this point, I'm not convinced it's mutual.. My bet is that most of their ordnance would blow up in the ground... If it blew at all.

My vote is we see how far we can push puttie before he strokes out.

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Wild-Lengthiness2695@reddit

The Russian calculus would be to target a country that would split NATO over retaliation . No point attacking Poland because the alliance will retaliate .

Latvia ? If it was just one strike ? Going to be a hard political sell to throw Europe into all out war for that, yet inaction would itself sow discord amongst NATO.

This has been the Russian strategy always - see what they can get away with and measure it enough that retaliation from outside powers is limited or non existent. Russia shot down a passenger plane in Europe but the most it suffered was sanctions and a few more Russians added to the ICC list of “no chance”

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Careless-Age-4290@reddit

I think that nuance really would come into play. Just like how we won't launch a rocket at Russia, but we'll pass it along and tell them intel about options for using it. A lot of the same actions can be done differently that don't result in taking the geopolitical situation to a 10 immediately.

I personally appreciate that countries don't have as hairpin a trigger as they'd like to present or else the cold war would've been a lot warmer before turning into nuclear winter.

It's weird how proxy battles have become the outlet for conflict. They provide deniability and keep everyone distracted from feeling like things have been a little too quiet recently while keeping face and never having to admit a loss.

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Wild-Lengthiness2695@reddit

Tbf proxy battles were predicted as the future of warfare publicly, Kennedy saw it - no doubt under advice - and there’s a famous (ish) book from 1989 (fighting for the future) that foresaw conflicts over resources like water coming.

There hasn’t been true peace in the world for centuries.

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skunimatrix@reddit

Russia would do something like kidnap another Estonian border guard on the Estonian side the border. Something that shows they can poke at NATO without actually starting a shooting war.

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Careless-Age-4290@reddit

Finance more political pot-stirring online seems like the go-to when they can't just use hostages arrested on specious reasoning

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Ikoikobythefio@reddit

This is my thinking too. He'll seize a border village in Latvia with his little green men or something similar. Then he'll dare NATO and the US to get involved.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

I don't think putin would straight away, I think he'd wait for the U.S election first and see if there's a change in government. But after, if Trump doesn't win, yes he'd do something. I don't think he'd invade a nato country, probably some big hits on Ukraine and maybe missiles into a NATO country. He wouldn't mass an army though because he'd get his arse kicked. But I wouldn't put it past him to send a few over the border.

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DivideAndKwanquer@reddit

Before launching nuclear weapons, Putin can escalate by severing the cable network between North America and Europe, striking the Romanian airbases where the F-16s are, or even destroy the NATO satellites used for guiding the long range missiles.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Absolutely, there are actually many scenarios, my focus was on the normal topics.

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Heffe3737@reddit

No, they won’t. Poland is just itching to go in and wreck Putin’s face - and they could should they so choose, even without the rest of NATO.

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BringbackDreamBars@reddit

Isn't a US veto a de facto total veto on use of Storm Shadow as there's some US equipment that's needed to target them? I remember this was a headline about a month ago?

Unless this is another one of where this is all publicity and PR, and there's backchannel approval.

The cynic in me wants to say that the USA is avoiding escalation as its two months before an election.

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SpaceballsTheCritic@reddit

The US wants to avoid escalation because war is bad and expensive. Even one that you could win relatively easily. While Russia has gone from the second largest military in the world, to the second largest military in Ukr, to what might well end up the second largest military in Russia, desperate people do desperate things.

The biggest problem is not winning a war with Russia, especially right now. It's WTF do you do with Moscow once you have capture it? I'm sure the majority of the people are generally good, but there is a fundamental reason it operates more as a large gas station than a country.

Of most concern to me is the recent 19% interest rate on the rubble and the major damage to Russian oil storage capacity. Interest rates are bad economic signs, but the underlying problems could be fixed in months years.

What is really bad for them because much of their oil production is in very cold places. If they stop production (for lack of storage) restarting those wells would take decades, if ever. They know this.

Also, not trying to get into a political discussion, but I'm not certain how an escalation of hostilities might influence the US election. As much as many might want an isolationist candidate, there is also an argument that the electorate might want a continuation during real hostilities.

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wyocrz@reddit

The cynic in me wants to say that the USA is avoiding escalation as its two months before an election.

The cynic in me goes the other way: escalating now would help stop Orange Man, but the risks are too high.

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Heffe3737@reddit

Either that or Ukraine has to wait until Russia launches the Iranian missiles they just acquired. Then there would be justification.

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aequitssaint@reddit

That's my understanding of it. I think the guidance system is US techology.

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aneurism75@reddit

meanwhile Russia is spinning this as the west blinked, fuck those guys give Ukraine the missiles

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

So bidens a Russian bot now?

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Careless-Age-4290@reddit

Gets up on stage "I hope this speech finds you well..."

Maybe Glitch McConnell was just having latency issues with the ChatGPT API

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Is that a but but Republicans attempt to yet again downplay Biden yet again helping Russias war efforts?

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Awesome_hospital@reddit

State department probably wants to wait until after the election before committing to any kind of escalated support. Containment can't last forever tho, Russia is a body machine.

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No_Moment624@reddit

From a US perspective its never been about Ukraine victory, just about slowly bleeding Russia and justifying/bolstering the US military industrial complex as long and hard as possible.

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Careless-Age-4290@reddit

And gives us an escalation path past sanctions. Find out they're paying a bunch of influencers are being paid by Russia? Drop the leash on some weapon system a few weeks later. It doesn't have to be directly stated to be understood as the country you just "attacked" let your other enemy hit you for it.

Plus you gotta boil the frog slowly to avoid the Russian populace being stirred to some patriotic feeling

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Yes that's clear. I've been listening to an analyst today on that and that's it. They also said if it changed Putin would probably wait for the election before doing something stupid aswell.

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Chogo82@reddit

This doesn't mean Ukraine won't just use them. US was always down on Ukraine actually taking Russia land and now they've done it. It's going to be the Israel story. US will condemn dropping bombs on civilians but keep selling bombs. Same thing will happen in Ukraine. I got calls on long range missiles landing in Russia in the next 6 months if the war keeps up.

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