Russia’s Central Bank Raises Rates to 19% as Inflation Ticks Up - The Moscow Times

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Interest Rate Increase: Russia's Central Bank raised its key interest rate from 18% to 19%.

Inflationary Pressures: High inflation driven by:

Increased military spending due to the Ukraine war.

Domestic demand exceeding the supply of goods and services.

Monetary Policy:

Seventh rate hike in over a year.

Aimed at cooling the economy and achieving the 4% inflation target.

Economic Impact:

Higher borrowing costs could reduce consumer and business spending.

Increased risk of recession.

Government Spending:

Federal budget increased from 24.8 trillion rubles ($289 billion) in 2021 to 36.6 trillion rubles ($427 billion) in 2024.

State-directed spending less responsive to interest rate changes.

Inflation Forecast:

Expected to exceed previous forecast of 6.5–7.0% for 2024.

Projected to moderate to 4-4.5% in 2025.

Future Outlook:

Next key rate meeting on October 25.

Potential for further rate hikes if inflation remains high.