Russia spent 8 years doing military exercises on the border with Ukraine, nothing ever happened, until it did. In February 2022 I was laughing at the idea that they would invade.

This conflict has been escalating month after month, year after year. Now the US is about to give permission for Ukraine to use US missiles for long range strikes deep inside of Russia, and Moscow knows it's coming. Just a year ago Biden refused to give tanks for fear that it would trigger WW3, now he wants to approve missile strikes on Moscow.

Then the US can just transfer unlimited numbers of long range missiles, something Russia won't survive, they're too big to protect all their vulnerable targets. They're already suffering to Ukrainian drones, against waves of Tomahawks they don't stand a chance, Ukraine will destroy their economic base, it won't matter if Russia takes Donetsk or not, they'll be broke.

Putin's only chance will be to prove that there is a red line, and only dropping a nuke will achieve that. Anything else will just prove that he's bluffing, nuclear deterrent only works if the other side thinks you'll actually do it. The number of people arguing that Russian nukes don't work is surreal.