Harris' suggestion that Poland could be next if Ukraine loses the war resonates with Poles

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Dtwn92@reddit

Not to sound like I support this war or this administration but she isn't wrong. This is an ancient goal of Russia to stop one of the 6 lines of ingress into Russia without terrain playing a key. One Vlad wants to go down as Peter the Great and even Poland has this feeling too. Putin is a threat and I don't think Ukraine is a stopping point. Problem is Poland ain't Ukraine and the Russia troops don't seem to be good enough to dispatch Ukraine let alone Poland/NATO. Hell, Russia might not even be the best military in Russia right now.

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Sitorix@reddit

It won't be Poland First it will be Moldova, the motive because it has russiam speaking population that don't want to be reunited with Romania, Moldova is poor as hell, no army, easy prey Second target is tough Either Baltics, easier to get but worse implications or Romania itself, a coridor through to Serbia and Hungary, two pro russian countries.

Ps, I'm Romanian, compared to Poland our army is nothing plus we have far more pro russians in the country

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A_Wizard1717@reddit

I think second would be Syria pt. 2 or even bigger trouble in Africa

I dont think Russia is dumb enough to attack Nato, even the Baltics. I hope im right

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sovietsumo@reddit

Africa is not a country, which African countries would Russia invade and why?

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FickleRegular1718@reddit

Check out Sudan and I think the RSV?

Ukraine is already there fighting them...

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sovietsumo@reddit

Don’t think anyone buys into Ukraine which is running out of manpower is fighting in Russia in Sudan. Also Sudan civil war has many different factions backed by different nations

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AlternativeSir1448@reddit

Ukraine has absolutely send special forces to both Sudan and Mali with some other countries possible. They are doing legitimate “special forces” work, that is, training and advising local forces against Russians, to great effect. the Mali ambush was brutal- hundreds of Russians dead, 30+ APCs destroyed, and a gunship brought town. There were Ukrainians organizing it.

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sovietsumo@reddit

Here is a recent politico article about the pressing shortage of manpower in Ukraine. The idea that Ukraine can afford to send troops to Africa is just laughable. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-faces-an-acute-manpower-shortage-with-young-men-dodging-the-draft/

Mali is a Russian ally so Ukraine can’t send troops there, Mali like Niger has kicked out French troops already. Sudan has nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine, it’s a civil war with uae/turkey/qatar etc involved and supporting different factions.

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AlternativeSir1448@reddit

where’s your reply, monkey? This picture was taken in Mali. Note the white dudes.

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sovietsumo@reddit

A random picture in a random barren wasteland doesn’t prove anything. A nation running out of fighting men can’t be sending the few men left to fight far away. You are too emotionally invested in this to have a rational discussion.

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AlternativeSir1448@reddit

Cept they did. Go watch Sudan Ukrainian special ops vids, monkey.

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sovietsumo@reddit

Stop sniffing coke you monkey, no one is buying this BS. Most ukranians are 6ft under and can’t fight in Ukraine let alone in Sudan

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AlternativeSir1448@reddit

that’s why the russian convoy in Mali was destroyed and all the captured Russians executed 🤣🤣🤣🤣 guess they can’t fight either

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FickleRegular1718@reddit

You could just watch them if you want...

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Millennial_on_laptop@reddit

Also Moldova is not a NATO member so it doesn't automatically trigger the mutual defense clause (article 5) like attacking Poland or Romania would.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

You are correct, and no disrespect to you and yours, but there is zero chance the world would sit back and let Russia take Poland.

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No-Trouble-889@reddit

I know a few people immigrated from Moldova. Their general consensus is their county would not even attempt to put up a fight. So yeah, Poland next.

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GentleMocker@reddit

Realistically, it would've been Moldova next, though that's like halfway there already so it's not saying much.

The general notion is apt though, having Russia as an immediate neighbor doesn't end well.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Correct. However, unless NATO is disbanded and all of Europe shrug and say, "oh well, fuck it," Poland is not going to be taken by Russia. Russia would have 10 colours of shit kicked out of it if it dared touch Poland.

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GentleMocker@reddit

Russia would have 10 colours of shit kicked out of it if it dared touch Poland.

It would have shit kicked out of it(hopefully) if it attacked Poland, but we know damn well by now that you can get away with poking a country for years and slowly escalating with barely any repercussoins. It's never an open attack right away, it's years of poking and prodding, establishing a cassus belli, and then a decade later little green men are declaring an independent zone in what they call a 'historically russian' area, and nobody wants to go to war over a tiny piece of land.

We've done this song and dance before, we don't want to see it again up close.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

You are correct. However, the poking is already 10 years old and we have war in Europe already. If Poland were to be invaded, 3 things would happen.

The blinders would be ripped off and all shades of grey removed from the situation.
Anyone aware of how wars are fought and won would know Russia would struggle to fight Ukraine and Poland simultaneously.
If Russia invaded Poland, the fact that we all know where this leads would galvanise everyone and remove political barriers.

If it happens, Europe would get its shit together.

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Top-Perspective2560@reddit

I hate to say it but a dictator who had been allowed to get away with annexing bits of other countries and thought he could get away with doing the same to Poland despite them being allied with some of the most powerful countries in the world was exactly how WW2 started

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stag1013@reddit

A key difference is that Germany, Italy and their allies are comparable to Britain, France, the USSR and their allies, at least since their early victories were so quick over the Western front and the industrial base of the USSR, and Japan coming in to boot.

Russia on its own is comparable to Poland, and with no joke, my money would be on Poland winning. It's smaller, but it's very modern and has an effective chain of command, two things Ukraine severely lacked (not to mention Ukraine is poor and Poland isn't).

Russia vs just the European parts of NATO (let's say America says they won't join unless nukes are used, to act as a deterrent)? Russia is toast, and quickly, even if some Stans and Belarus join in.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Yes it's because we all know that and dealt with it that I don't believe for one second it'd stand a second time.

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Vobat@reddit

It didn’t stand the first time, WW2 started with Germany invading Poland.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Exactly

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StatisticianOwn9953@reddit

Even Europe without its shit together is likely to clatter Russia in a conventional fight. They don't have any of the limits Ukraine does like a lack of modern combat aircraft. In fact, they have roughly twice as many combat aircraft as Russia, and their aircraft are disproportionately more modern. They also have roughly double the active personnel and tanks.

Source - CSIS

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

And just look at the money, Russia simply doesn't have the economic power to fight Europe.

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RandomDudeYouKnow@reddit

Finland, too.

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diedlikeCambyses@reddit

Absolutely. Let us be clear, although people and governments were hesitant to go all in to help Ukraine, watching Poland or Finland be invaded aswell would simply be too much. Let us also be clear, Russia doesn't have the man power, money or logistics to waltz through Europe. This idea that Britain, France, Germany, Spain, Italy, Poland, Sweden, Finland, Romania, etc all need tocollectively fear Russia does not hold up to scrutiny. If Europe drew a line in the sand, Russia is stopped at that very moment.

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Designer-Muffin-5653@reddit

Moldova would fall within days at most. It’s even poorer than Ukraine and has a low population

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GentleMocker@reddit

Well, that, and it also already has a russian military presence inside of transnistria, if Ukraine fell I'd expect Moldova would openly surrender.

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Joe_Exotics_Jacket@reddit

This is why it’s considered a door prize of the Ukraine-Russian war. After that my money would be on Georgia or some of the stans’ to be attacked if they aren’t sufficiently being a vassal.

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VonCrunchhausen@reddit

Yeah, it is pretty weird how a Russian army just ended up stuck there 20 or 30 years ago.

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DarkOmen597@reddit

Not wierd when you look at the how and why.

Its pretty much Russias playbook

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Designer-Muffin-5653@reddit

I mean Ukraine also had a large Russian presence since 2014

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Nocta_Novus@reddit

That happens a lot if you have Moscow as a neighbor or seems

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EVOSexyBeast@reddit

Poland is #1 US Ally in 2024 🇺🇸🇺🇸

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manamara1@reddit

Putin will be after Poland or the Baltics first? Poland has greater wealth?

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PookieTea@reddit

0% chance

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suptenwaverly@reddit

Poland will always remember how Russia started World War 2 with Germany when they were invaded by both countries. Always remember the Russians were allies with Nazis until they weren’t.

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HonestTry4610@reddit

Harris provocation of Russia resonates with preppers in the US. See I can also do this stupid perspective shit.

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WarMiserable5678@reddit

Absolutely ridiculous fear mongering

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stan-dupp@reddit

What does the actual current president have to say about this ?

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mathemology@reddit

That we stick by our commitment to NATO, which is the greatest deterrent to Russian kinetic aggression. Under the current administration, NATO countries have grown closer in intelligence sharing and joint exercises, multiple nations have increased manufacturing of equipment for both domestic defense and sharing, and two long time holdouts, Finland and Sweden, have joined NATO as allies. And the US was front and center in those efforts to expand NATO.

To give you an example of how important this is, 900,000 Finns have military training. The total population is 5.5 million.

Both countries have strengthened NATO’s kinetic and cyber defense capabilities.

So, to answer your question question, the current administration actually doesn’t have to say much because they simply have done a lot on the subject. Walk the walk, not talk the talk.

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FickleRegular1718@reddit

He also has many historical speeches that describe in detail everything he could possibly have to say about this...

They're on YouTube and they're great!

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StrengthMedium@reddit

Say about it?

He's literally DOING something about it.

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

Well, there was an agreement on the table that was agreed to before the US and UK squashed it so there's that. This war didn't need to get to where it is now.

The reality is anyone talking about Russia going into Poland is fear mongering and wants war. Russia has no capacity to go into Poland. Russia has no reason to go into Poland and Putin has stated publicly many times that he has no desire to do something so crazy.

Harris is a straight up idiot. There is no reason to quote anything she says because she says whatever she is told and has no real understanding or opinion on anything.

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YeetedApple@reddit

Well, there was an agreement on the table that was agreed to before the US and UK squashed it so there's that. This war didn't need to get to where it is now.

What exactly was this agreement, and agreed to it?

Russia has no reason to go into Poland and Putin has stated publicly many times that he has no desire to do something so crazy.

He also repeatedly said the same thing about Ukraine, yet here we are.

Harris is a straight up idiot. There is no reason to quote anything she says because she says whatever she is told and has no real understanding or opinion on anything.

Pot, meet kettle.

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

Ooh sick burn bro.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

Or you can find a different source if you like, there are many and it's highly believable considering how the US is furthering and supporting this conflict.

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YeetedApple@reddit

How is it believable? Ukraine has openly said this entire time a peace deal must include returning all of their land to them, and Russia has refused to accept that. Per your own source even, an agreement was never reached to begin with.

It's also hard to take anything you say seriously when you try to frame this as the US's fault. Russia is the one who invaded another country and is the only country that can unilaterally end the war by withdrawing their troops back to their own border. Every death is because of Russia's actions and they can end it at any moment on their own, yet you want to blame America?

Do you know that you are just mindlessly regurgitating misinformation and propaganda, or do you really have this total lack of real understanding about any of this?

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

You want to continue to borrow then give away billions of dollars to a notoriously corrupt country to continue a war that will escalate into WW3 if continued for what?

Why is fighting Russia worth it to you?

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YeetedApple@reddit

You want to continue to borrow then give away billions of dollars

Most of what we are sending over has already been paid for and was just sitting around in warehouses. We aren't sending just straight cash every time you see about some new package like you are implying.

a war that will escalate into WW3 if continued

History would suggest not supporting supporting Ukraine could lead to WW3. When has appeasement ever worked?

Why is fighting Russia worth it to you?

Because i support the ideas of sovereignty, international order, and democracy. I don't believe in allowing dictators to conquer their neighbors.

Since I am answering your questions, can you do the same and address my question on why you continue to blame the US instead of blaming the country that started the war and has the ability to end it any time they want? You spend all this time arguing against the US, but not a single word about Russia, why is that?

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

Wrong, Billions in funds have been sent to Ukraine.

History would suggest that world wars start when major powers get involved. If you are referring to Hitler and Poland, please save your history lesson and don't make such a stupid connection. My grandfather lived in Warsaw when it was invaded, I know all about it. Funding a war that would have ended quickly is more likely to lead to world War, period.

Sovereignty : The US now has Ukraine in debt and interferes in Ukraine going back decades. They tell Zelensky exactly what to do. So no, you don't. Also, you don't believe in personal sovereignty if you support this Nanny state of a government.

International Order: fighting proxy wars is not furthering order. Russia is wrong but if the goal is international order then causing a war to be bigger and longer than it would have been in one of the most fertile regions that also mines a good portion of the world's fertilizer isn't the way to do it. Famines in Africa are coming because of this. Unfortunately the world food supply depends on it.

There are dictators/countries all over the world conquering their neighbors on a regular basis. I'll bet you can't name more than four including this and Gaza.

I hate Putin, I've already said it. I do sympathize with him as we would never allow a declared enemy to set up missiles pointing at the US in Mexico or Canada. My beef is that all of the US resources have been wasted on war. Trillions of dollars gone, for nothing. We aren't better than the people that are dying because of US foreign policy, we are just lucky we were born here. Russia is wrong, but the US is wrong here. It's easy to criticize Putin. It takes a little more thought to realize the US involvement is a big problem. If you don't get that then it just means you're of average intelligence and that's not your fault but it's frustrating because many people are dying from black and white thinking here.

Russia bad, US good, freedom, sovereignty, etc...

War is Peace.

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waffle_fries4free@reddit

How about we just ask Russia what land in Europe they want and force those countries to give up their territory? So we can avoid war!

Better yet, does Russia want US land to avoid a war? Land for peace!

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

Or, since we are making up seriously dumb strawmen...

Why don't we just fight every war until we are $35 trillion in debt, our infrastructure is crumbling because we give our money away to other countries and the dollar is worth nothing?

Go fight over there since you are willing to start a world War to extend a war that could have been settled. Smooth brain

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waffle_fries4free@reddit

So what should be done about the Ukraine war?

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Calvins8@reddit

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/09/02/diplomacy-watch-why-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/

He's referencing this failed agreement in 2022. I never really dug into it to see its legitimacy but this article links to source articles (paywalled).

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Puzzleheaded_Town_20@reddit

Just like when Putin promised he totally wouldn’t do something so crazy as invade Ukraine?

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

NATO in Ukraine has always been a red line for him and most us administrations understood that.

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big_money_honey@reddit

What was the agreement that got squashed? I'm unaware..

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ExtraBenefit6842@reddit

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022/05/06/boris-johnson-pressured-zelenskyy-ditch-peace-talks-russia-ukrainian-paper

I misspoke, was not an agreement ready to be signed but they were actually negotiating until the West gave him a visit and then he stopped talking. The West wants to wear down Russia. This would have been over long ago. Putin never came in with a big force because he was expecting to negotiate right away, now how many people are dead? We are close to WW3 for what? Money.

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makecoinnotwar@reddit

Fanning the flames of nuclear war.

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waffle_fries4free@reddit

Yeah, invading Ukraine was very dangerous for the entire world

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gavstah@reddit

Poland and the Baltic states know exactly what they are up against vis-a-vis the Russians.

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odo_0@reddit

No Poland is not next, putin isn't dumb enough to attack an actual member of nato.

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AllUrUpsAreBelong2Us@reddit

Pretty much what the poles have been saying. And latvians. And....

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Vobat@reddit

Russia will attack NATO or EU country is not going to happen

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crash______says@reddit

Warhawk fodder. Russia is losing to Ukraine, they aren't going to touch NATO, it's suicide.

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Gljvf@reddit

They should start increasing thier military spending of they are worried

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EagleSzz@reddit

they are. they are spending more % of their gdp than the US .

https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/06/19/poland-to-be-natos-biggest-defence-spender-this-year-as-proportion-of-gdp/

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Gljvf@reddit

That's good. So prepare to fight.

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WhateverUnited@reddit

Another genius

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bananapeel@reddit

Actually attacking Poland would be extremely foolish on Putin's part. Poland is part of NATO and that would invoke Article 5. (If you attack any one nation of NATO, all the other NATO members are obligated to come to their defense.) This is the same as directly attacking all of NATO, including the US.

Considering how well Ukraine is doing with the US offcast weapons from the 1980s, I kind of wish he'd try. It would be over in minutes. Gloves off.

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studio_bob@reddit

It would not be "over in minutes" but it would disasterous for Russia and NATO and possibly the world given the extreme risk of nuclear escalation.

Which is why it won't happen. This is just rhetoric for domestic consumption to keep up public support for the way within NATO. If people don't feel that their national security hinges on the outcome in Ukraine they will be much less keen on compromising their own military stock and budgets to continue that war.

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bananapeel@reddit

I don't believe that Putin has the ability to start a nuclear war. Several times in the past, (notably, drunk Nixon in the White House and one notable instance in USSR) the generals that actually make sure the orders are carried out... stopped them.

I also don't believe that Russia has more than 10% of a working nuclear arsenal. Those things take maintenance to keep working. We saw the tires falling off the trucks during the invasion because they weren't rotated properly. The maintenance budget was siphoned off by corrupt officials.

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studio_bob@reddit

Just because we got lucky in the past doesn't mean we can or should take it for granted that nuclear war is just impossible. That sort of complacency makes it more likely.

Also people talking about bad Russian tires at the start of the war claimed that the entire war effort world fall apart because what they believed that said about the overall Russian military. That didn't happen. So that kind of inference is not sound, and anyway Russia has put more into modernizing their nukes than any other area of their military over the past 15-20 years. They perform regular ICBM tests and they work. You believe over 90% will fail? Terrible bet, and it's one we can't afford to lose.

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bananapeel@reddit

I don't really care. The way the world is right now, I am cheering for the asteroid. Fuck everything. Burn it down.

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CharmingMechanic2473@reddit

Excellent post. We need a strong NATO to stop WW3.

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ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit

Putin has made this evidently clear from the beginning that Russias only interest was regaining Ukraine as their territory. The US literally keeps escalating an issue that has nothing to do with us as a show of power.

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dnhs47@reddit

*Russian trolls enter the conversation *

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ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit

I’m an Army vet but alright dude 🫡 keep giving into the propaganda.

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dnhs47@reddit

Yeah, recent history has shown those aren’t mutually exclusive.

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ILikeCoffeeNTrees@reddit

That’s actually a really fair point 😂😂😂 swear I’m not a Putinbot tho

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LankyGuitar6528@reddit

I think it's Georgia next. Putin wants to put the band back together. But nobody near Russia should relax.

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Repulsive_Tax7955@reddit

So United States?

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dnhs47@reddit

Russia already has effective control of Georgia, there’s little to be gained by overtly invading.

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WillBottomForBanana@reddit

resources and access are probably bigger drivers than nostalgia.

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IvankasDad@reddit

It won’t be any of these countries first or next… didn’t any of you listen to the Putin interview?

This is all bs propaganda brought to you by the military industrial complex.

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studio_bob@reddit

Poland is NATO. Russia isn't going to directly attack NATO. Not happening.

In general, this rhetoric is incoherent. If it's possible to stop Russia in Ukraine without direct NATO involvement then obviously Russia is not a threat to any NATO member country. On the other hand, if Russia is so strong that NATO membership is no deterrent, then what is the point of fighting a whole war just to get Ukraine into NATO? A symbolic gesture?

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Mineizmine@reddit

Nobody wants Poland literally nobody worse thing Stalin did was incorporating them n da SU he shud have let them starve

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rusengcan@reddit

Ah yes let's escalate to world War 3

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Stripier_Cape@reddit

World War 3 already started, it just looks like it hasn't because a hot war between nuclear powers is far too costly.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

We call that a "cold war" and the largest cold war in modern history was settled by having direct talks between the United States and Russia.

Until that happens, the US and Russia can keep playing their cute proxy wars happening all over the world (Syria, Ukraine etc) with millions of people dying.

But that's way better than communication with Russia! Right?

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Stripier_Cape@reddit

Ukraine isn't a proxy war unless you believe China is fighting the West via Russia

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

Uh... cool take, I guess. This must not be a proxy war. lol

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Stripier_Cape@reddit

It's not. Syria is tho, our proxy is the SDF

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

lol

Pick and choose whichever way makes you sleep better at night.

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Stripier_Cape@reddit

Ukraine is objectively not a proxy war lol. We won't even allow them to fight unrestricted with our weapons and they didn't listen when we suggested they withdraw from Bahkmut. They didn't listen when we suggested they either wait to do the Counteroffensive in 2023 or concentrate in one direction instead of 3.

If they're a proxy, they don't fucking listen.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

Read a book.

"Proxy war, a military conflict in which one or more third parties directly or indirectly support one or more state or nonstate combatants in an effort to influence the conflict’s outcome and thereby to advance their own strategic interests or to undermine those of their opponents."

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Stripier_Cape@reddit

So the US instigated the war as to not directly fight Russia? Or did Russia instigate the war to indirectly fight the US?

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Tramagust@reddit

Are you suggesting we let Poland fend for itself?

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Male-Wood-duck@reddit

She is an idiot if she actually believes that. Russia can barely handle Ukraine, let alone the 1st rate western military of Poland.

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SlayerofDeezNutz@reddit

With time and the population and resources of the Donbas, combined with fatigue by western nations who’s democracies are leaning towards center right austerity politics, Russia could be a threatening force for Europe.

Obviously every dead Russian soldier in Ukraine makes this harder, but unfortunately in some ways they are gaining future manpower by utilizing the Human Resources in the Donbas.

Not to mention the outsourcing of their personnel already to mercenaries.

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Male-Wood-duck@reddit

She is fearmonger you and you are falling for it.

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SlayerofDeezNutz@reddit

Was it fearmongering when Russia was doing war games on Ukraines border? Trump in power makes Russias plan realistic. Do not forget that we pay for NATO. U.S. out of the picture endangers the rest of eastern Europe not occupied by Russia.

Understanding the security risk of a Trump administration is foresight; not fearmongering.

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Male-Wood-duck@reddit

Poland is not Ukraine. How can you even compare a modern Poland with a 1st rate Western military and a NATO member with Ukraine? You are being played, and you are blinded by it. Before you knock, Trump. Don't forget those javelins used in 2022 were provided by Trump. Trump sent them weapons when Ukraine asked. Obama and Joe sent helmets and food. Why do you always forget that Trump sent javelins? The guy before Trump sent body armor and food and refused to send lethal aid.

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SlayerofDeezNutz@reddit

Trump quid pro quoed those Javelins that Obama had sent; it wasn’t a hot war and guess what? It’s not intelligent to put state of the art top secret valuable equipment to militia in the Donbas. The javelins were always going to be there; only Trump made sure to inject his own personal election fraud into the deal, at Ukraines expense.

Look deeper than just the talking points. Critically.

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Male-Wood-duck@reddit

It wasn't a militia. It was the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian army asked for them, and Obama sent helmets. Trump sent lethal aid. Do you really think that the javelins were top secret in 2014? The javelins were not even close to top secret in 2014. They had been in front line use for almost 20 years by 2014. The thing was even featured in 2004 on the discovery channel.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

Outsourcing for wars has always been highly effective in draining resources of the most powerful nations on earth. One only needs to look at all the "insurgents" that blured the lines between civilian and fighter, eventually making the people want the US to leave due to the difficulty capturing/killing insurgents without occupation and killing civilians. It happened in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Vietnam... the list goes on.

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SlayerofDeezNutz@reddit

For how huge of a military industrial complex America has the amount of personal/contractors that America sent to Afghanistan is small compared to the amount of Russians colonizing the Donbas right now.

And Russia’s objective isn’t really reconstructing a sovereign domestic government with the DPR/LPR; Russia wants to suppress the region under their reign. These are different processes. And the developers in the Donbas plan to stay Russian, whereas in Afghanistan there was an ultimate goal of a sovereign independent state supported by what was hoped to be the American occupation.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Sure sure the Russian military which can't even take on Ukraine is gonna attempt to take the strongest European military next lol.

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Nezwin@reddit

100% agree with this. Poland is far stronger than Ukraine with more support from her allies. After 2-3 years at war with Ukraine, even if they did somehow win tomorrow, how would the Russian military have the wherewithal to go invade Poland?

I've read it more times than I care to remember now, but each time it sounds less and less plausible.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

People are just stupid and hate Russia so much they think Russia has no common sense lol.

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slo1111@reddit

Well, he did invade Ukraine thinking Europe and the US would roll over. Wasn't much common sense in that.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

It actually was.

The issue Russia faced was corruption among their ranks which told them a fairytale about ukrianians not fighting back.

They won't make that mistake again and have purged their ranks.

They know full well Poland and any nato nation would go balls deep and make them squirt the second they presented that hole.

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dnhs47@reddit

I don’t hate Russia at all, or Russians - just their leadership. Which has repeatedly demonstrated they’re objectively stupid (no common sense), especially in how they’ve conducted their war with Ukraine.

Sending an invading force without sufficient fuel and food? Meat assaults? Drunk commanders and soldiers? Barely trained troops?Tell me again how smart Russia has been?

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Tal714@reddit

That’s the point tho. Poland will be safe as long as our allies (including the US) are willing to support us, as long as NATO is strong

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HooterBrownTown@reddit

Once you dedicate your economy to war, the mechanisms are in place to pump out what's necessary to engage in war. Russia has lost a lot, but they are pumping out a lot of war machines as well. Putin has no issue taking from the population, and make no mistake there is plenty more people to send into the fire.

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WillBottomForBanana@reddit

A failed russian invasion still sucks for Poland. Being prohibited by nato from hitting back still sucks for Poland. A decade of a belligerent neighbor doing stupid incursions still sucks for Poland.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

But it's more fucked for Russia who unlike your beliefs isn't suicidal lol

If Russia goes in to Poland with any military force no matter how limited Poland and NATO are in Moscow before Christmas.

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slo1111@reddit

I would presume so, but if the last 7 years taught us anything, it is that section 5 is not a guarentee

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

It is when it's in Europe....

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WillBottomForBanana@reddit

My beliefs aren't suicidal. I'm an atheist, my beliefs died a long long time ago.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

I meant you believe Russia is suicidal and wants to destroy itself lol.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

Well, Ukraine has the strongest army in Europe, no wonder Russians can’t conquer it easily.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

No Poland does.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

It wasn’t battle tested like the Ukrainian armed forces.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

It would be in Moscow within a month that's how they would do.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

I will believe it when I see it mate.

Meanwhile. The Ukrainian Armed Force is the fifth largest armed force in the world in terms of both active personnel as well as total number of personnel with the eighth largest defence budget in the world, and it also operates one of the largest and most diverse drone fleets in the world.^([17]) Due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been described as "the most battle-hardened in the world,"^([18])

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

That's what happens when you fully mobilized against an invasion dumbass.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

Yeah mate Poland with its 100k army will be in Moscow in a month.
Ukraine military size for 2020 was 298,000.00.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_military_and_paramilitary_personnel
poland is 45 by active military.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

What was their military size pre invasion?

Ukraine abusing Russia with 70s western tech Poland's got fucking f 35s stop being an idiot.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

I can’t believe how ignorant you are. The F-35s are scheduled to arrive to Poland in 2026, with the remainder to be delivered by 2030.

I just told you Ukraine military pre invasion in 2020 was 300k vs 100k Poland.
Russia would have occupied Poland in a matter of months. Similar how Germany did in ww2.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Okay Mr military size beats military tech and modernization.

https://www.f35.com/f35/global-enterprise/poland.html

They would have them within minutes of a Russian invasion.

Military size doesn't matter when you're comparing a military using 70s tech to one using modern tech son.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

Okay mr polack if military size doesn’t matter why the US (the most modern military) has 1 million and 300k active military ? Poland doesn’t have pilots and infrastructure for f35 yet. Keep day dreaming.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

I'm American and if Irish decent.

Yet 5k American soldiers could probably take on the entire Russian military lol.

Poland's pilots are already being trained as a source imma ask you to actually read the source I posted.

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

Oh yeah mr polack, how many American soldiers were deployed in Afghanistan? Did they take over taliban? Trained and will be ready by 2026-2030.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

We but fucked them back in to caves which they stayed until we left.

We also were not there to conquer if we were there would be no more Afghanistan.

Trained and built but won't be transfered until 2026 which floor change within literally minutes if they're invaded.

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AlmondCigar@reddit

Doesn’t Germany and France etc have good militaries?

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

The Ukrainian Armed Force is the fifth largest armed force in the world in terms of both active personnel as well as total number of personnel with the eighth largest defence budget in the world, and it also operates one of the largest and most diverse drone fleets in the world.^([17]) Due to the Russo-Ukrainian War, ongoing in 2024, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has been described as "the most battle-hardened in the world,"^([18])

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JohnDorian0506@reddit

Not really, The strength of the Bundeswehr at the end of 2023 was 181,514, more than 1,500 fewer than the previous year.

There are also over 20,000 vacant posts that the armed forces are struggling to fill due to fewer applicants and a high training dropout rate.

“On the issue of personnel shortage, I have no good news. The Bundeswehr is aging and shrinking,” Hoegl said.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

Russia isn't "taking on Ukraine". They're taking the military industries of the ever hated "Industrial Military Complex" that everyone loves when supplying weapons of war to the ones we prefer.

But don't get confused, if Russia was simply fighting Ukraine, this wouldn't look even a little close to what it does today.

This isn't a war between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine soldiers and civilians are simply a means to an end.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Russias literally throwing everything they have at ukriane just stop with the denial lol.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

You're not understanding this very basic point:

Russia is fighting the US and NATO vicariously through Ukraine. Russia is not solely fighting Ukraine and that ridiculous to even suggest. Even you know what would happen if the funding got cut off.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

If Russia was really fighting anyone else besides Ukraine Moscow would now be a fucking lake just accept reality Russia never recovered from the collapse of the cold war and where all bark no bite.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

We will have to agree to disagree. The biggest contributor to why you think this is because Russia is fighting a US backed nation that's stockpiling them full of some of the best equipment in the world in numbers that would make just about any nation on earth as competitive as Ukraine is right now.

But countries like Poland, have a pathetic sized Air Force. Literally smaller than just three fighter squadrons worth of fighter aircraft filled with 30 or so F-16, laughably ancient Su-22s and MiG-29s that every modern Air Force considers obsolete.

You can't even make an argument that Russian Su-30M and Su-35S, of which Russia still has over 200 of, aren't leaps and bounds over anything Poland has. The only way Poland survives is the only way Ukraine survives; By having the US save their asses.

People like you are the exact people you WOULDN'T want planning a war. Underestimating your enemy is one of the quickest ways to get smashed.

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TheWallerAoE3@reddit

“Sure sure the Japanese military which can’t even take on China is gonna attempt to take on the strongest British and American navies next lol.”

Remind me what happened on December 7th, 1941 in the Pacific?

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Ummm... Japan was raping china and owned more land in their empire then any nation in the history of humanity they also had the largest military at the time.

They just didn't anticipate America's ability to catch up so fast.

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TheWallerAoE3@reddit

But you understand the point right? They were already bogged down in a war when they decided to start their war on the British and Americans. Therefore it shows that countries including Russia don’t just start wars based on ‘who they can take on’ successfully. We can’t discount the possibility especially when Russian pundits and politicians keep threatening NATO.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

Bogged down in war? You mean continuing to conquer huge parts of the globe including beating America in the Philippines?

Japan had every reason to believe they would defeat the allied powers the one thing they and every other nation didn't see coming was America's manufacturing abilities and how quickly we were able to catch up.

Russia has no reason to believe they wouldn't be crushed by Poland literally none.

Learn some basic history bro.

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TheWallerAoE3@reddit

But Japan was deluded and wrong about their strength and ultimately lost the war. You’re proving my point, in fact, because Russia already overestimated their strength against Ukraine who is to say they’ve learned their lesson now, maybe they still believe they can start another war and win, even against NATO. We both agree that they have acted irrationally in Ukraine right? Why should we assume they’ve suddenly learned and become rational and understand their limits now?

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

No the fuck they were not lol.

They had created the largest ever empire in 20 years had a larger navy Air Force more ports trained troops ECT.

Russia has reason to believe Ukrainians wouldn't fight back they have no reason literally none to believe the same about Poland.

Russia didn't act irrationally they had a clear goal it was achievable what they didn't see was the corruption in their own military and spy forces and how much the west would back Ukraine and ukrianians would fight back.

They know they Poland would be suicide.

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TheWallerAoE3@reddit

And I could say the same about Russia, before the full scale invasion of Ukraine they had propped up governments in the middle east, seized land from Georgia and Ukraine, started an economic partnership that was growing through BRICS and was successfully spreading propaganda throughout the planet. In every sense they were ‘winning’ like Japan was albeit in a diplomatic manner.

‘Surely with such a string of victories our 2022 invasion will be successful’ they said to themselves, only to wander into a bear trap. Despite all of that they keep saying how gloriously they are winning all the time and how the world is awed by Russian might.

I see no reason to assume they have tempered their ambitions or humbled their opinions of their capabilities.

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Flat_Boysenberry1669@reddit

No no you can't lol.

They assumed the west would ignore Ukraine under Biden like it did under Obama.

They also had legit reasons to believe they could take Ukraine.

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crownofthepoor@reddit

If she wins, then Polands definitely next!

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AWE2727@reddit

Does Harris know something we don't about war in Ukraine? Lets deal with cards on table 1st before we talk about next hand.

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RandomDudeYouKnow@reddit

Russian military leaders have stated multiple times that Ukraine>Baltics>Poland>Finland. There's already been an anti-government increase in Moldova from Russian agents in 2023.

Aside from this, the precedent it sets that would confirm you can do what you want if you have nukes is disastrous as well. Not to mention that countries won't honor their pacts to not invade you if you give up your nukes.

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estella542@reddit

Probably Belarus, Serbia, or Moldova honestly. They’re all Russia supporters. If Poland cares so much, Poland and Europe should do more. We don’t need to keep sending money we don’t have. We are in debt and broke. You give money to your sibling if they are in a bad spot, but if you are drowning in debt at some point you have to say sorry I can’t.

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Tal714@reddit

You realise that Poland is way poorer than the US and we invest in our army like crazy right now.

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estella542@reddit

We are broke. We don’t have taxpayer money to give to our broke best friends.

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No-Trouble-889@reddit

Without the shared border Serbia is quite a stretch.

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estella542@reddit

They wouldn’t even have to go to war, Serbia would just join them. They were decimated by NATO and still haven’t rebuilt.

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fruitlessideas@reddit

Next? Probably not.

On the list? Definitely.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

One thing I think a lot of people aren't figuring is that there doesn't have to be a "next. There very much could be an "also".

Russia certainly doesn't have to wait and do things one at a time before tremendously interrupting and destabilizing other nations. Despite what you may believe, or despite what you've read about Russia's performance in Ukraine, they absolutely have the ability to enter into a second front. How successful that would be remains to be seen, but the ability to do considerable damage is absolutely there.

I'm not trying to turn this into a political debate because at this point its like trying to convince devout religious person that they need to join a completely different religion, it's not going to happen. But there are two very clear differences in the way each candidate wants to deal with Russia. One candidate said that he wants the killing to stop. He wants war to end and he claims he can do this through negotiations. The other candidate spoke about how many tanks and bombs and javelins and weapons the US has sent to Ukraine.

We can all speculate as to who's plan would save more lives in the long run or who's plan would prevent Russia from spreading beyond their current boarders. Not one single person knows the answer to this. But the way things are going now, I can't really be caught up in the debate of "you don't want Ukraine to win?" when the current administration is preventing Ukraine from attacking strategic targets inside of Russia. The only thing this does is to prolong the meat grinder in Ukraine. It's like having a plan in a boxing match where you chose to only use defense without ever actually throwing a punch yourself. So who is it that doesn't actually want Ukraine to win? If I give a patient blood but I do nothing to ever stop the bleeding, how long is that sustainable?

I don't have all of the answers here, but I do know that this could very easily spread to other nations and history has shown us very clearly that Russia is perfectly comfortable with prolonging wars for 30+ years and not think twice about it. Thinking that you're going to win a war against Russia by simply depleting their resources while allowing them to deplete those resources inside someone else's country is truly insane. The Soviet Union lost 27,000,000 men in WW2. Say what you will, but if you want to get into a meat grinder fight with Russia, they'll meet you on the battlefield. If anyone thinks the war in Ukraine has a foreseeable ending anywhere in the near future is completely ignorant. Ukraine will become the next Syria and the war in Ukraine could look very much like the 33+ year Russian offensive in Afghanistan is something isn't done to stop this war now.

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Bogdan_thedestroyer@reddit

Whole lot of rambling with some points littered throughout.

One side of the aisle has weaponized the idea of giving aid to Ukraine so there is the political pressure to not give everything away in order to not offer republicans a political advantage. This talking point unfortunately has gained some traction. There is also the idea of mutually assured destruction through nuclear arms to worry about. If Russia’s offensive actions in Ukraine are foiled through NATO support the idea is they won’t resort to nuclear weapons. If their actual sovereignty is threatened then there is a belief the risk of nuclear deployment dramatically increases. More soldiers will die without weapons to strike into Russia but in comparison with nuclear warfare it’s still the lesser evil to restrict weapons use into Russia.

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SuspiciousCucumber20@reddit

I'll shorten this up for you.

All of your solutions result is people you don't know dying en masse. Your solutions literally feed this war with unlimited resources and ability to kill, but with just enough that its all nicely contained within the confines of Ukraine so that you don't upset Russia and potentially it's allies. Who's appeasing Russia? No one on earth is defending Russian borders more than this current administration and the way they're doing it is with the threat of no longer providing more weapons to continue a murderous ground war in their own neighborhoods. Gee, thanks. They certainly don't have the means or any plans to bring both sides together for peace talks and peace can only ever happen through communication or utter devastation.

There will come a time, could be next year, or it could be 20 years from now, that the "peace loving, anti war" hippies begin to cry out from thousands of miles away from the safety of the US saying "Give peace a chance". But until then, these very same people have a lust for war with no end in sight and no avenue for peace available to any party involved.

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SithLordRising@reddit

Orange Clown vs. War Monger

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ShaniacSac@reddit

I am Polish I was in Warsaw 3 weeks ago. Every polish person I know is 100% pro Trump

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Select-Net7381@reddit

That country is beautiful, lucky

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ShaniacSac@reddit

I live in the USA but yes it is

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Sitorix@reddit

You know everyone can check your posting history, right?

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ShaniacSac@reddit

and???

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Van-van@reddit

FUD

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Superman246o1@reddit

Polls indicate that Poland, like almost every other non-Russian European country, overwhelmingly favors even a senile man like Biden over Trump because it's obvious to anyone paying attention that Trump is Putin's puppet.

As Poland knows well from its history, Russia is not to be trusted, nor sycophants who are obviously doing the bidding of Russia.

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GentleMocker@reddit

I'm Polish and don't live anywhere near Warsaw, and every polish person I know thinks Trump is a joke, and doesn't understand how he's not in jail yet.

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iwannaddr2afi@reddit

We know. The Law and Justice party and protectionist, populist, nativist (lbr often openly racist) politics look very familiar to Americans. Doesn't change the fact that a second trump presidency puts Poland at risk. The fact that Poles like trump is neither surprising nor relevant.

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