Intel allegedly has 'stock availability issues' for Core i9-13900K and 14900K CPUs
Posted by imaginary_num6er@reddit | hardware | View on Reddit | 79 comments
randomkidlol@reddit
gotta keep in mind building one of these from scratch is like 12 weeks minimum, and i assume they build just enough to match expected demand over the course of a year. all these RMAs means that prediction goes out the window.
Yawning_Creep@reddit
Plus the fact that yield per wafer of i9 worthy dies isn't so big.. it's a clusterfuck.
Olde94@reddit
It’s almost as if “glueing” smaller chiplets is a smart move
AsparagusDirect9@reddit
I to watch Asianometry
Olde94@reddit
Uhm… i don’t? What is it?
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
He's talking about the YT-channel @Asianometry, a channel well known for its incredibly profundity on regards to everything semiconductor when explaining backgrounds and its stories.
Think some Asian getting bored, and instead of partaking in just the next International Mathematical Olympiad or another maths-competition, he's sitting at home and siphons off the world's libraries and Big business' secret archives, only for dumping the given retrieved high-value knowledge into ELI5-style YT-videos under the ever-interesting motto Science. Technology. History – Exceptionally profound and painstakingly detailed, while being criminally underrated all the while mostly sharing largely unknown to secret knowledge doing so.
AsparagusDirect9@reddit
why did i get downvoted
FullOf_Bad_Ideas@reddit
One can only guess but it's not like chiplets are unknown to the wider community and only known to a specific YouTuber and his community. Asianometry is great, but there are many other ways one could learn about chiplets.
AsparagusDirect9@reddit
What other ways can I learn about semi hardware
FullOf_Bad_Ideas@reddit
About chiplets specifically? Even tech keynotes from AMD will give you info about benefits of chiplets.
I've tended to rely on Anandtech for those sorts of information, I don't know where I'll get that now, maybe this sub lol.
jaaval@reddit
Even without manufacturing time nothing is ever fast with large organizations.
They probably have an RMA department that has a small stack of CPUs to send to customers and the department just ran out. There likely is some dude there writing these answers who has no idea where they even get the CPUs as it's not his job to know. He has to ask somebody who asks somebody how they can get more than their normal allocation or if they can get it faster than normal.
It would probably take a couple of weeks to arrange more even if the company had plenty in storage somewhere and the email there seems to suggest they just don't know yet about when they get more. Or they have to arrange to get a larger cut from some production run coming out of packaging. Which probably involves boring and slow bureaucracy.
Exist50@reddit
These days, it's closer to twice that.
mackerelscalemask@reddit
Why?
dj_antares@reddit
Are you dreaming or something? It takes 14 weeks minimum to get out of the fabs.
Intel7 is a DUV node, it heavily relies on SAQP, which probably takes up to 90 masks to even finish the wafer.
Testing and packaging happens after that.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
Are you sure about that?!
dj_antares@reddit
Sure about what? Do you have proof 10% of Intel CPUs have cores that disables itself or straight up won't boot out of the box?
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
I do, was at times involved in it.
… and you know what Quality Assurance heavily revolves around, that testing is literally a integral part of it?
Anyway, it was a John Cena-thing poking at the current 13th and 14th Gen issues, pal … :/
Exist50@reddit
New nodes are more complex, is the short explanation. Last I heard, N3 was ~18 weeks.
Real-Human-1985@reddit
They’re no longer making 13th gen CPU’s.
EitherGiraffe@reddit
That's more of a branding question, 13th and 14th gen i9 use the same die with the same stepping.
Real-Human-1985@reddit
yet and still, they were sending 13900K's out and they ran out because they don't make them anyore.
dj_antares@reddit
Well, that's not necessarily true anymore. 13th gen is no longer available to order, but that doesn't mean Intel cannot or will not make it. A lot has happened since then.
Extention isn’t unheard of, is it?
longsdivision@reddit
I would have imagine they would have stopped making the chips as soon as they found out their was a production issue.
¯_(ツ)_/¯
limpleaf@reddit
Microcode update
jmhalder@reddit
This, but unironically.
Strazdas1@reddit
jmhalder@reddit
They both suck, there need to be more CPU vendors. I previously had an Intel CPU, now I have a AMD cpu, I have a Snapdragon 7c Gen2 laptop, and will absolutely dip my toes in RISC-V eventually.
They all suck, but right now, AMD is probably the best bang for the buck. 🤷♂️
limpleaf@reddit
A matter of time until the inevitable happens.
COMPUTER1313@reddit
I wonder what happens when the OEMs stop getting replacement CPUs to repair the prebuilts?
iBoMbY@reddit
Replace the system with AMD motherboard/CPU, and send the invoice to Intel. That would be about the only option.
ItIsShrek@reddit
And intel would not pay that nor would they be obligated to lol. Most they would do is refund the tray price of the CPU
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
It doesn't matter what Intel wants or that they'd rather like to grant replacements instead of refunding the consumers/businesses the full amount of the former price-tag (at worst, possibly at the already increased price-point on launch-day). They just have to, no matter what!
Of course Intel rather would like to offer a comparable replacement in a SKU of similar fashion to satisfy the RMAs – They'd lose like 3-5× the money and the very profit they already made doing so! Since basically the only way they can keep most of the shady profit, is giving up a comparable SKU (thus, only have to write off the production-costs of that once produced yet now failed CPU).
Which means, if they ran out of replacement-SKUs already by now, it's going to cost them dearly and it could end up costing them hundreds of millions or even billions of profits … Depending on how severe the situation for them is.
Just some short rough estimate over the costs over potential RMAs involved, based on the arithmetic average of both Gens' ASPs;
If we take the mean value of both Gen's $ASPs ($398.26), thus Rocket Lake S' $ASP¹ ($398.65) and RPL-S Refresh' $ASP¹ ($397.87) for all +65W-SKUs and take the mean average of it ($398.65+$397.87 (÷2) = $398.26) and take a very conservative number of just 500K RMAs for granted, we already end up with costs for reimbursements of about $200 million USD ($398.26x500K = $199,130,000).
Given the cases may be even just a single million RMAs world-wide, when Intel has sold most definitely several millions of it – RPL-S sold better through the channels in the weeks after release than AMD's AM4/AM5-offerings! RPL-S Refresh was weaker with AMD's 3D-cache equipped SKUs – It might be very well a million consumers' RMAs waiting to be reimbursed ($398.65x1M = $398.260,000) and thus being worth nearly half a billion USD!
Considering that RMA-rates of 50% were sometimes mentioned for such specific SKUs, it's fairly ease to picture Intel's management sweating some heavy bullets already right now over the next upcoming earning releases, when they again have to strike another couple of hundred millions of profit off their already quite red-tinted balance-sheet, don't you think?!
Then again, investors want to know, where that money aka further loss in profits went, despite higher projected revenues and profits. And when they find out how severe the RMAs and their numbers where, even nastier questions arise about the absolutely justified questions of how such a manufacturing-blunder could be kept shut about and what else processes it may affect.
Trust me, Intel is in a really, really tough spot and darn great financial heat right now …
Ironically, their pretty sure imminent delisting off the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the sour loser and taillight of the whole index (only to be replaced by NVDA), might be ironically their only hope to temporarily get out of the current spotlight and relief a lot of pressure from their stock.
Yet again, said delisting wouldn't only come along a extreme reputational loss for Intel itself and a loss of prestige like ten times the impact of losing Apple as a big industrial customer, it would mark a sheer flood of investors to flee their stock already and further increase INTC's utter downward-spiral towards pure chaos on their already well-beaten down stock market and trading-oblivion – Institutional investors who have a dividend-mandate, already have to terminate each and every positions in INTC when they announced the suspending of their dividends!
Depending on the financial impact of the RMAs alone, Intel could be in very serious financial trouble by the very next earning release, not to mention that the emergency-meeting of the board in two weeks to present some viable axing-propositions might chop off the plant in Magdeburg, Germany completely forever – Another cancelation worth $11Bn off the balance-sheet on the credit column, many investors and share-holders will happily take as a last straw to terminate their hold positions and wipe everything INTC off their portfolio …
¹ $ASP as in arithmetic average of all 65W- and above SKU's selling-prices, thus Recommended Customer Price (RCP) at launch-time from the 13th and 14th Gens respectively; RCPs were retrieved from the English Wikipedia
ItIsShrek@reddit
They would have to refund what they charged for their own product if they run out of replacements or are legally forced to, yes. The comment I am replying to is saying that they should pay the cost of AMD products to replace them with, which is not a precedent that I believe exists, at least in the US. The most they'd do is a refund of whatever they were paid by the customer.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
Right, which is quite difficult to do, when they're out of stock on given SKUs, even comparable SKUs of similar fashion and already money-constrained. My comment was also meant in general, given the quite uncertain outcomes for the consumers as well as Intel itself.
That is the kicker. They're apparently already out of stock on anything 13th and 14th and have to refund the complete price. The AMD-option is nonsense and rooted in wishful thinking of course …
Though I could think, they'd either offer full refund or a comparable 12th Gen-SKU then and reimburse for the difference. Either way, this whole debacle is becoming a worsening nightmare for them by the day, when they're already very tight on money and actually just need the actual profits to have a healthy financial foundation.
Anyway, thank you for not taking it personal – Wasn't meant to attack you here though! And yes, my post was never meant to be the tirade if might come off as (wall). I just tried to lay out the financial consequences for them, which might end up being really nasty by now.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
Intel is legally obligated to reimburse over the given amount either directly or through proxy (by their already quite fed-up retail- and business-partners). And no, they just can't refund the amount of a Tray-CPU's worth, when the CPU the consumer has bought, was purchased as a boxed version one – What are you even smoking?!
They in fact ARE legally responsible to either reimburse/refund the monetary value of the purchase, or replace it with a comparable SKU of similar fashion …
Well, unless Intel is eager to catch another pocketful of legal sunshine aka class-action law-suits, of course.
COMPUTER1313@reddit
AMD: “Yeah that’s a problem because we’re very conservative with how many wafers we order.”
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
Are you referring to AMD's casual yet horrific objective third-degree burn back then on Intel they got away with, when throwing in their next Ryzen-labeled Presto log into the full blast furnace under the very hotplate Intel is sitting on?
“We expect our competitors to meet their road-maps.” – Lisa Su on stage back then
Lord_Zard24@reddit
Asking myself the same question...
somewhat_moist@reddit
Plus depleted stock from RMA
obp5599@reddit
they supposedly corrected the fab issue in 2023 so i dont think its them stopping supply, they just have a ton of RMAs
longsdivision@reddit
Yup, but at some point in time they need to switch gears also to start on next gen cpus, and ramp that up too. That window is tiny so to consider stopping, fixing, and restarting...then stopping again....for next gen...thats going to be rough.
Exist50@reddit
RPL will still be a huge volume driver for them for the next few years. And what else would they do with the fabs anyway?
dickfarts87@reddit
But $$$$$$$
One-Self-1757@reddit
Is this a worldwide thing or only for the US?
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
World-wide of course. Why would it not? Just because the U.S. runs on 110/120 volts while others are on 220/230V?
Strazdas1@reddit
It really does not matter because this gets normalized in the PSU and output towards CPU is the same in US and elsewhere.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
Of course the input-voltage is nigh irrelevant in this regard – Was more a case of Cpt. Obvious checking on him …
MDA1912@reddit
Can confirm from recent experience.
Their check should be in the mail to me at any time now. I RMA’d my 14900k under warranty because it had damaged itself, only for them to immediately tell me they were out of stock and offer a refund or I could wait 4-5 weeks.
I really liked my CPU, but I was not and am not completely satisfied that their microcode fix will prevent all damage in the future.
So I bought and AMD CPU and compatible motherboard, and reused my shitty (in that nothing is willing to run it at full speed, maybe it’s bad) two 8000 MT memory sticks, and that’s what I use now.
battler624@reddit
You can look at this in 2 ways.
because of RMAs
people are still mass buying this crap that they don't have stock for RMAs
buildzoid@reddit
Aren't RMA normally separate from retail stock? AFAIK usually there's a certain number of parts held specifically as RMA inventory.
Dealric@reddit
Usually you have certain % set for RMA. With skyrocketi g rmas they likely run out of it and had to use regular stock instead. They likely are with no rma stock and low on regular.
battler624@reddit
I've gotton new parts (in-box) as RMA before so I assume its the same stock.
blackbalt89@reddit
Oh they have stock issues alright.
Raiden_Of_The_Sky@reddit
Their CPUs don't always run stable at stock, but they can't replace all of them because of stock availability issues. Expected for a company that has low stock prices.
mHo2@reddit
How likely is an individual with a 13th or 14th gen Intel CPU going to run into these issues?
eivittunyt@reddit
nearly guaranteed eventually if you let them draw 1,5v+ like 13/14900k do at stock settings without the bios updates that were made available nearly 2 years after launch. I am sceptical the bios updates fully prevent them from burning out in the next 5+ years but only time will tell.
Raiden_Of_The_Sky@reddit
It's actually mostly the other way around - most old BIOSes don't go above 1.4-1.45V because of low AC Loadline values set by manufacturers, but this caused instability on numerous chips. All new BIOSes draw up to 1.55V because of AC LL set to 1.1 mOhm by Intel, but their fix is 1.55V hard limit (without it CPU could request even something higher than 1.6V).
CAOCDO@reddit
Here’s a stock image of an intel cpu on fire:
Pete_The_Pilot@reddit
Their stock is on fire too📉
NegaDeath@reddit
I'm a pretty stocky guy, but I don't put much stock in internet photos.
reddit_equals_censor@reddit
well of course they do.
if you gotta replace a bunch of chips, where the replacements will fail in a few months just as well and the same applies to servers (servers use these chips for game servers, etc... ), then yeah... you got yoruself a problem keeping up with the supply.
the biggest issue is, that the 13900k and 14900k are the BEST bins, that intel has for those chips.
so lots of chips get made to make very few 13900k/14900k chips.
and the degradation issue is effecting the highest power chips the quickest.
so what do?
the probably best thing to do with average consumers is to offer them the option for an arrow lake replacement of the same performance or better, when arrow lake comes out.
and give them a 50 or 100 us dollars discount on arrow lake motherboards.
also offer a direct replacement of course, but make it clear, that alder lake is the better choice, so that you minimize endless rma hell and also save money.
at the same time you can focus on throwing the 13900k/14900k chips, that do get produced at server customers.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
In noble hope that the consumers wait 'til Christmas before they can get some Arrow Lake-replacements and have no system in the meantime? Who would opt for such a daft proposal in the first place anyway?! Really tight and difficult situation …
I mean, I'd guess many would take that option, given Intel would compensate and reimburse them for the accruing costs of a comparable AMD-equipped rental for the time being in-between, and pays in advance …
… only to postponed the inevitable trouble and drag waves of RMAs out for some months and just further anger even valuable business-owners later on? That would be even more idiotic business-suicide, don't you think?
Nevermind, forget my objections – We're talking about Intel here after all, which apparently love to constantly shoot themself in the foot. Hurry up, submit your CV and apply for their board of directors, since you'd be a invaluable enrichment for them at the helm!
reddit_equals_censor@reddit
actually my suggestion was not just about rightnow, but rather about the ongoing situation.
13th and 14th gen chips are NOT expected to stop degrading and stop failing. the patch is expected to slow degradation a bit, but not stop it.
there may be years of replacements of it coming potentially and multiple chips for lots of people.
i meant with the servers part, that those data center providers may have contracts, that have a 14900k in their contract with their partners for a year let's say (from my understanding).
and intel has to provide the replacements for those failing chips. some of those chips fail from new to broken within a few months.
intel can easier get your average customer to stomach or even VASTLY prefer an alderlake replacement, that leaves the customer with a working system (fingers crossed), than doing anything like this with a datacenter partner.
so again i have been thinking not just about the this very moment supply issue, but about the ongoing rma issue with those chips for years to come we can assume. intel may even want to keep it that way, to dodge another lawsuit.
let's say the chips need to drop voltages A LOT to prevent degredation fully, which will drop them below the promised clocks.
well that is a problem them, because they promised sth and didn't deliver = lawsuits.
replacing chips continuously for effected customers instead could be cheaper than another lawsuit.... not the RIGHT thing to do, but intel doing the right thing is already not likely lol :D
and the soution of offering alderlake equivalent and motherboard discount gift card seems possibly the best for intel and ok for customers. the best for customers would be a full refund.
intel could offer 3 options if they wanted to:
alderlake equivalent performance wise + motherboard gift card.
13/14th gen replacement
full refund.
the cheapest option BY FAR should be an alderlake replacement, so it would make sense to make that the most enticing option.
___
now that all being said, it could make sense tto anounce such a program relatively early to get people to sit on their broken cpus as they want for alderlake and to mention that option in support calls, instead to customers to again not thrown 14th/13th gen chips at customers, that will just fail again anyways we can expect.
btw just to be clear, do you mean 13th/14th gen chips used in servers at stock configuration in w680 boards?
which as said is a massive issue and those are failing beyond believe despite very low power settings and being run very cool.
or do you mean actual xeons failing massively too? i didn't hear about stuff in regards to xeon failure issues.
gvargh@reddit
intel isn't a charity. purchases involve risk
reddit_equals_censor@reddit
have you lost it?
did you just argue, that customers getting sold a broken part is fine and intel can show them the middle finger even WITHIN WARRANTY?
have you actually lost it? are you a higher up at intel or nvidia, tesla or apple? :D
like what?
that is one of the most insane comments i've seen thus far in this subreddit.
imagine telling that about cars or climbing gear makers :D
"yeah so the car exploded, because someone bumped you from the back a bit and the UNPROTECTED gas tank ruptured and exploded.... BUT "this isn't charity, purchases involve risk"".
"so your dead family and your burn scars are just part of the deal yo ;) "
or how about a climbing harness, that snaps and kills people...
"yeah so we found, that there was an issue at the plant manufacturing the fibers or gluing them together and at moderate load it may already tear up and kill the users, BUT "this isn't charity, purchases involve risk" :D some dead children falling to their death is just part of the climbing gear business i guess....
OR we do you know... full recalls when products are broken, be it cars, climbing gear, cases and electrical equipment.... just a thought so, but i'm sure your "argument" will be listened to very well from the families, that died in preventable accidents due to failed hardware :D
just insanity :D
___
and just so you understand my suggestion to offer alder lake replacements of at least equal value and remove the chipset price for customers and a bit more for a board (50-100 us dollars gift card for boards for the new platform)
is not a charity suggestion. that suggestion is to save intel money.
because it isn't whether intel will replace chips or not, it is whether or not intel will replace chips or refund people, who bought the chips.
and lawsuits are expected to come in soon.
refunding 600 euros of a 14900k is a WHOLE LOT MORE EXPENSIVE, than to replace those chips with assumed stable and working alderlake chips, that can also be fabbed much cheaper than the top bin on 10 nm for intel.
so maybe think things through even remotely, before commenting the most insane and dangerous comment i may have ever seen....
may you never work in a company, that is producing products, that can kill people if they don't function properly......
bikesontransit@reddit
really glad i did my build with a i5-12600K. I've heard the 12 series had similar issues but as far as I can tell its pretty much the last generation of Intel chips that came out before these performance issues. Also not sure if the issues are only with i7s and i9s.
Gippy_@reddit
12th gen wasn't affected because Intel didn't redline the 12th gen so much in a desperate attempt to beat AMD. Not counting the KS SKUs, 12th gen topped out at 5.2GHz. 13th gen went to 5.8GHz, and 14th gen went to 6.0GHz.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
FTFY! They have been upping the game on power to draw at the wall for years …
bikesontransit@reddit
thanks for clearing that up! yea, super glad to have the chip that I do.
CheesyRamen66@reddit
One of the first bottlenecks you’ll run into when tweaking a 12th gen is the ring ratio, to raise it further you usually have to disable the E cores. To fix this Intel pushed the ring hard on 13th and 14th gen but apparently too hard and now it burns out. i7s and i9s are pushed the hardest anyways so you’ll find the most issues there but I believe some i5s were reporting the failure too.
Real-Human-1985@reddit
The 13600 up to 13900 models went out of production in several months ago. They had stock at retail to sell through and stock on hand, but with all the RMA’s the 13 series is likely done.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
I'd think they'd next offer either full refund or offer a comparable 12th Gen-SKU of similar fashion and reimburse the difference (at least, it's the same 1700-socket and the consumer just put it in place and carry on), if they even have such still anywhere in stock?
Then again, it's only a matter of time until the upper end of 12th Gen-SKUs are depleted also and they then have no other option but to outright refund immediately, no questions asked. What a show…
tupseh@reddit
I think they've been offering 14th as a sub, they're basically all the same product anyway.
Real-Human-1985@reddit
yes, it will be 14 series or refund.
Smithdude@reddit
Probably used up their stock with all the RMA's.
Helpdesk_Guy@reddit
I'd think they'd next offer either full refund or offer a comparable 12th Gen-SKU (same s1700) of similar fashion and reimburse the difference, if they even have such still anywhere in stock? Then again, it's only a matter of time, until the upper end of 12th Gen-SKUs are depleted also and they then have no other option but to outright refund immediately, no questions asked.
Meekois@reddit
Stock issues is a nice way of saying "chips that won't or haven't bbq'd themselves to death"
Belydrith@reddit
All 4 people still dumb enough to buy one must be devastated.
III-V@reddit
This primarily affects RMAs