Is that an intellectually honest way to approach any subject? You should be open to evidence when it becomes overwhwelming, such as in the case of global warming.
Because you felt cold last winter? The expression “Global warming” is not about your everyday temperature. The the average of the global temperature over a year, nights, days, winters, summers, deserts and poles.
That is the thing that is increasing, in objective terms, measured by satellites and meteorological stations.
But how that translates to your everyday temperature? The system have more energy, making extreme weather more frequent, temperature anomalies of months over past decades are usually hotter in a bigger portion of the globe (check [GISTEMP ](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/) ) and eventually this trigger feedback loops that generate more emissions of greenhouse gases (I.e. permafrost thawing) or heat the globe in different ways (I.e. melting ice increasing Earth’s albedo).
Deny it or not, is a process that can be measured, and that is growing.
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What does it matter if we’re there yet? Realistically we’re going to get there shortly, nothings changed in the face of the science. Big corporations are going to continue pumping out smog. Recycling cans isn’t saving anyone.
When I took ecology 101 in 2008 I remember learning that if we stopped carbon emissions in that moment, the world would still warm for another 100 years.
I remember this too. Forever I've felt like I'm screaming into the void, throat sore and about to lose my voice completely. Why can't other people see where we are going?
Many other people can see it. The problem is that the people that can fix the major elements of the issue are actively profiting off of it or are apathetic to the problem.
Many people can see it and decide to have kids anyway, fueling the problems through increasing population/consumption and ensuring those at the top can profit further.
Or that someone else on the other side of the planet might not be "forced" to make the same living standard sacrifices as they have to make. (China pollutes way more than us! We shouldn't sacrifice etc.....).
The reason you were taught that in 2008 is because the climate nodes had not accounted for the natural geo and biochemical processes that dominate the carbon cycle and that sequester large amounts of CO2.
Now that climate models have integrated the carbon cycle into the models, the century of has been almost completely abandoned.
The most [recent research](https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/2020/) and modeling shows a strong decreasing temperature response almost immediately after large scale reductions in CO2 emissions.
FWIW here is the review comments doc. https://gmd.copernicus.org/preprints/gmd-2019-153/gmd-2019-153-AR1.pdf . I still find it weird that this is the first I've heard of this paper nearly 3 years after its release. It goes against such a popular belief I just can't understand why it hasn't had a higher profile. Has it been discussed here previously?
The latest full report of the IPCC (CMIP6) is based upon Earth Systems Modeling. Earth systems modeling has integrated the carbon cycle into its structure.
The reason you don’t hear about modeling that shows a signal for warming reduction or even cooling on a “short” or in other words decadal scale after the reaching of net zero and then emissions reductions, is because 90% of the users of this sub WANT global climate chaos.
Thus any discussion that insinuates there is any possibility, no matter how small and laughable it is considering our current situation and societal response, tends to be downvoted into oblivion.
Simply saying you trust the IPCC full reports is a highway to downvotes, which is hilarious, as the rules of sub specifically state that the IPCC is a trusted source.
The IPCC has politicians arguing on which language to keep and what technologies to promote. They are pushing for carbon capture FFS... My critism of IPCC is that it's not a purely science based source.
That is an impossible question to answer because it depends on who you believe to the people with the “right expertise”.
It is the position many organizations, agencies, and researchers that baked in warming was overestimated and that net zero emissions will lead to lower warming then was expected by early climate modeling with far less “baked in warming”.
If you distrust the IPCC and NASA and instead believe Hansen, then we are on the track of a minimum 10C warming even if all emissions cease tomorrow.
At the end of the day the climate system of an entire planet is so filled with chaos that accurately predicting future changes is likely never (barring exponential advances in computational speed) going to be possible with full confidence.
Thus you pretty much have to just decide which experts you trust and examine their theories to the best of your ability.
Other then that the only option is to wait for observations to catch up to the models.
I'm not sure I believe that for the first few years we stop putting shit up in the sky. The lock downs from covid were followed by extreme temperatures from the loss of fading effects from less particulates in the atmosphere. We are fucked for a long time no matter what we do at this point.
Certainly it seems Ike rapid aerosol reductions would lead to a spike in temperatures on a short time scale. This effect is not something we can just magic away, but it also does not justify inaction on reducing GHG emission. The loss of aerosols will be far worse if emissions remain high.
The loss of the cloud brightening from sulfur emissions is clearly going to be a problem for us.
Also important to note that earth system models do incorporate [aerosol reductions](https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-432/) in their data sets and thus their runs.
Whether or not the model treatments of aerosols is accurate or well constrained is a project for people far smarter then me.
I i agree. The longer we put off short term pain the longer and more horrible the long term effects will be. We have just created an environmental situation where the short term pain will still be catastrophic.
I'm not a scientist but in the opening paragraph it says
> Models exhibit a wide variety of behaviours after emissions cease, with some models continuing to warm for decades to millennia and others cooling substantially.
Unless I'm reading that wrong, which is likely, it says that they did multiple analyses and they were all different.
They did run multiple models in an ensemble analysis. Two of the models showed high initial warming continuing after net zero, two showed immediate and large cooling, and the rest trended towards a 0 Zero Emissions Commitment, meaning that once a net zero target had been reached, the majority of the model runs showed limited to small warning on decadal to century scales with a few models showing a plateau and then several centuries later another rise.
What this study suggests, if the authors conclusions are correct, is that when net zero emissions are reached, continued warming is likely to be small to negligible.
In the researchers words:
“This warming effect is difficult to constrain due to high uncertainty in the efficacy of ocean heat uptake. Overall, the most likely value of ZEC on multi-decadal timescales is close to zero, consistent with previous model experiments and simple theory.”
Basically they are saying, we can’t be sure but the model ensemble run suggests a plateau of warming on a short time scale after the attainment net zero.
The existence of outlier models of course means that a continued rapid warming is possible, but it does not mean that outcome is highly probable.
Just like a snow forecast is constructed from an ensemble of model runs, some of which will show no snow, and some of which will show huge amounts of snow. Just because the extreme events exist within the model ensemble, doesn’t mean they are necessarily likely to pass.
Wrong.
Warming stops when emissions are reduced to net-zero
[https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/MichaelEMann/status/1602867797268340738](https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/MichaelEMann/status/1602867797268340738)
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/)
[https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/](https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/)
https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#netzero
I wonder if there's *any* chance of saving the majority of humanity. If that possibility has passed us by, then humanity might only be saved at all by some kind of deus ex machina event.
Consider a situation where a majority of humanity dies from, say, a superflu. Drastically reducing the emissions, of course, and leaving massive resources for the surviving portion.
It's possible that even in that scenario that the process of global warming would be self sustaining.
If it is self sustaining then humanity might be forced to block out the sun to such a degree and for such a length of time that many will unavoidably starve. Then we're back to a situation where the earth is in shambles and much of humanity is dead.
Another critical thing about geoengineering is that any effort to intentionally alter the climate of our planet to mitigate the impacts of warming will require completely unprecedented global cooperation. The amount of resources required will mean that the world superpowers need to (at least mostly) be on the same page for an incredibly long period of time.
If, at any point during the process, that cooperation falters or ceases, then the solar geoengineering that is masking global warming will stop doing so or stop doing so effectively. Global temperatures will rapidly shoot up and that precipitous rise in temperature will be catastrophic.
> The amount of resources required will mean that the world superpowers need to (at least mostly) be on the same page for an incredibly long period of time.
Not really. Injecting sulfur in the stratosphere (most commonly admitted form of geoengineering) would require "only" a few billions $ of investment, it's pretty easy, technically speaking. A medium-sized country could reasonably do it on its own.
Most probably, India will start to do it within the next 20 years, whether we like it or not.
Yeah the Indian subcontinent is where I expect climate disasters to hit “first” (we’re already having disasters but I mean mass famine/death). It will warm up fast, they’re losing water resources faster than most places on the planet, population is sky-high, other pollution is very high. And to top it all off they’re right next to a country they have bad relations with, both armed with nukes.
Humanity is incredibly adaptable though so I expect some people to survive, albeit at a reduced standard of living. Where is a good place to be is an important question for me, as I would like to survive…
New Zealand seems to be the default answer for the ultrarich and it makes sense… English-speaking, developed, low population density, geographically isolated, good water reserves and agriculture. One downside though does seem to be… if something DOES go wrong, where do you go? Also, relatively hard to immigrate to now, and I don’t expect it to get easier. Certainly impossible to get to once collapse starts.
On a continent basis though I think South America will have by far the most survivors, especially southern South America. Relatively low pop density, many highly food self-sufficient countries. Argentina needs the least of its land to feed its entire population of *any* country (only 5%) and large areas will actually gain water from climate change. Northern neighbors Uruguay, Paraguay, and Brazil are also food self sufficient or close to it, Bolivia slightly less so. Many South American countries are less far removed from subsistence/traditional ag than some more modernized countries, and will probably feel the collapse of industrial ag less strongly. Also importantly no South American country has nukes, and it seems highly unlikely they’d engage in the same kind of devastating global wars countries like the US will when quality of life starts collapsing (unless they get invaded).
You are possibly right. But won't South American countries get totally screwed from the Amazon turning into a huge savanna or desert as a result of deforestation though?
I can already envision million of Brazilians and their neighbors starving to death from famine and hunger when the Amazon disappeared.
Maybe but I think that would be on quite a bit longer of a timescale. Currently ~80% is intact (although some of that is somewhat degraded) and I think the estimate is if it goes below 40% it may hit a tipping point to turn into savanna/desert, which still wouldn’t be instant. And surprisingly I’ve been seeing cautiously optimistic news about conservation ramping up for it lately. Finally, once international trade collapses I’d expect both the motivations to clear (almost entirely beef farming) and the ability to clear (to a lesser extent) will decrease.
Wrt southern South America, I’m not 100% sure what the dynamics are but I don’t think they’re directly dependent on the amazon.
In any case I really hope enough of it survives that when the rest of us are enjoying the collapse and/or dying a few tribes that’ve been living the same way for 20,000 years can manage to keep chugging along. It would be the ultimate irony if all our technology doomed us and proved “primitive” life superior.
>Maybe but I think that would be on quite a bit longer of a timescale. Currently \~80% is intact (although some of that is somewhat degraded) and I think the estimate is if it goes below 40% it may hit a tipping point to turn into savanna/desert, which still wouldn’t be instant. And surprisingly I’ve been seeing cautiously optimistic news about conservation ramping up for it lately. Finally, once international trade collapses I’d expect both the motivations to clear (almost entirely beef farming) and the ability to clear (to a lesser extent) will decrease.
Wow! 80% is intact? I would have thought its much less by now. Some of it is somewhat degraded as in the ecosystem has been slightly altered?
Since you believe it wouldn't be instant, how long/what decade do you believe the desertifcation/savannization process would occur?
Can you elaborate further on these news? And when do you believe international trade will collapse?
>Wrt southern South America, I’m not 100% sure what the dynamics are but I don’t think they’re directly dependent on the amazon.
Can you expound on this please?
Another probable factor that might screw South America (or maybe Latin America in general) are heatwaves/wet bulb temperatures as many areas of the region might be susceptible to it. I can see millions dying in the tropical areas of Brazil, Colombia, lowland Ecuador/Peru, Venezuela, Paraguay, etc as a result of wet bulb events/heatwaves when combined with to high humidity as well.
>In any case I really hope enough of it survives that when the rest of us are enjoying the collapse and/or dying a few tribes that’ve been living the same way for 20,000 years can manage to keep chugging along. It would be the ultimate irony if all our technology doomed us and proved “primitive” life superior.
Yep. I also hope those remaining hunter gatherer tribes can still cling to survival. It makes me how much humans will be left by the time all these events unfolded though.
Indeed, it would be biggest irony lol. Also I won't be surprised if the survivors are stuck in that "primitive"/preindustrial lifestyle in perpetuity as all the resources for technology and modern civilization are now totally depleted.
> what decade do you believe the desertification
Hard to be precise but given the rate it has been going away (I think it was like 99% intact in the 70s?) probably not until the 2070s, maybe 2060s if feedback loops occur. But also I think theres a very good chance collapse happens before then, possibly sparing it. And then once desertification starts, it’ll take some time to finish. So I mostly don’t see it as a this-century threat.
> when do you believe international trade will collapse
Probably not until mass famines/droughts start. I think the first instance of mass death will be if multiple breadbaskets have crop failures simultaneously.
> wet bulb
Yeah it’ll be a problem, but I think *southern* South America (Argentina and Chile) will almost entirely be spared. Those countries will do the best imo, and probably Argentina in particular because they just have a fuck ton of options for food and a low pop density.
> few thousand
Its possible but I actually think some countries will have millions left over, they’ll just be sent back to an early 1800s way of living with like you said, a much longer climb back to modernity due to easy fossil fuels being depleted. If they can pull it off within a few hundred years though I bet the resulting society will end up being more stable than what we have now because the next generations will probably know what happened.
>Hard to be precise but given the rate it has been going away (I think it was like 99% intact in the 70s?) probably not until the 2070s, maybe 2060s if feedback loops occur. But also I think theres a very good chance collapse happens before then, possibly sparing it. And then once desertification starts, it’ll take some time to finish. So I mostly don’t see it as a this-century threat.
I really hope the collapse and spares the Amazon. Tbh, I'm very worried about the biodiversity there. I really hope the animals and plants survive the collapse.
>Probably not until mass famines/droughts start. I think the first instance of mass death will be if multiple breadbaskets have crop failures simultaneously.
Where in the world do you believe it will happen? And do you think the deaths would in billions or more?
>Yeah it’ll be a problem, but I think southern South America (Argentina and Chile) will almost entirely be spared. Those countries will do the best imo (excepting maybe NZ, some nordics, and possibly some parts of the US). Argentina in particular because they just have a fuck ton of options for food and a low pop density.
I see. That's possible. Do you think Russia, Canada and possibly China will do alright although not as well as those countries you listed?
>Its possible but I actually think some countries will have millions left over, they’ll just be sent back to an early 1800s way of living with like you said, a much longer climb back to modernity due to easy fossil fuels being depleted. If they can pull it off within a few hundred years though I bet the resulting society will end up being more stable than what we have now because the next generations will probably know what happened.
Don't you think sending back to early 1800s way of living is a little optimistic? I believe it would revert even earlier than that if most of the knowledge and technology are gone.
Do you believe the survivors can climb back to modernity even if it takes much longer time? Because I thought all the fossil fuels should be much rarer by then.
And in my humble opinion, if the resulting society more stable and next generations are aware, I really it doesn't become another modern civilization that is cancerous and destroy the natural world and Earth like it does now
Also tbh with you, I'm much more worried about the animals and plants of the world that human survivality on the planet tbh. I really hope the mass extinction can be stopped and that scientists can save many species as possible by safeguarding their habitats or creating artifical ones for them (in case their original biomes already vanished or almost are and by collecting their DNA (in case they can be revived back).
> I’m very worried about the biodiversity there
Me too :(
And the extra sad thing is that having it benefits humans. What if we kill off species we could have learned things from, like new kinds of medicine.
> Where in the world do you believe it will happen?
I’d put a lot of money on it (100m+ dead) starting with the Indian subcontinent. It has all the risk factors. Declining water resources, extreme pollution, corruption, very very hot in many places (just saw that a heat wave killed over 50 yesterday). Armed with nukes and next to another country armed with nukes.
> Russia, Canada, and possibly China
I think the first two will do better than the rest of the world. Might actually become more livable than they are now in some ways. Russia has a terrible government though, and I could see the US injecting some freedom into Canada, possibly making it a proxy state in true SHTF. But probably no genocide or anything.
China idk, they’re more at risk from some natural factors. Their government is in some ways oppressive but many in the culture seem OK with it. Unity is important, and US divisiveness is one of my prime concerns with how we’ll react here. Willingness to implement extreme policies like one-child (which many countries *should* have done, or at least 2-child) will be a boon.
> a little optimistic?
I don’t think so because there’s a lot of already extracted natural resources (like metal) that can be repurposed while we re-learn traditional skills.
> climb back to modernity
Probably only if a semi-modern state manages to survive with the knowledge of the processes required to make green energy work. It might only be possible in some countries well suited to those ways of making energy (esp hydro, geothermal). Otherwise you’re right, most easily accessible fossil fuels (except coal, the dirtiest) have been extracted. In SHTF deep sea oil rigs are not coming back any time soon.
> I really hope it doesn’t become another modern civilization
A cultural consciousness evolving to prioritize something like the “solarpunk” ideal is the only way we could ever be truly sustainable in a modern society imo. I hope it happens but its a longshot.
> sorry if I seem misanthropic
Nah, I get it. A silver lining is that even if we crush everything, adaptive radiation will ensure amazing forms of life come back in the blink of an eye on geologic timescales.
A couple of things that could go very wrong for the ultrarich in their chosen sanctuary of New Zealand is earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. That nation is a pretty seismically active place -- part of the Pacific 'Ring of Fire'.
There's no guarantee that New Zealand will be left alone either by the major powers of the world. When things really hit the fan, New Zealand looking relatively unaffected might be a tempting target for some FREEDOM.
Yeah and seems like it’d be a lot easier to conquer than say Argentina or Chile due to size, pop, language, terrain, pretty much everything. Plus fairly close to China…
Yeah when things get really desperate and shitty, even formerly close allies are not safe from good old fashioned naked imperialism especially if said former close allies have territory that are relatively unaffected by the coming chaos.
All the money and private security in the world won’t do shit against a pyroclastic flow 😆. It does make me happy to know that for all our power and hubris mother nature will always have the final word. Adaptive radiation will create a crazy interesting biosphere after the world can start recovering.
>If, at any point during the process, that cooperation falters or ceases, then the solar geoengineering that is masking global warming will stop doing so or stop doing so effectively. Global temperatures will rapidly shoot up and that precipitous rise in temperature will be catastrophic.
youre right. fuck me.
Geoengineering would be a disaster.
But not because it would cost too much or require cooperation, putting sulphates into the upper atmosphere to artificially cloudseed is cheap enough that any developed country could do it unilaterally.
One of the many factors that contribute to the long horror of climate change and why many are doomers here are the concepts of baked in warming and the masking effect.
In short, even if all human activity were to cease right this moment, we have enough warming baked in from current and past pollution that it's still possible to tip things into runaway warming/feed back loops.
Furthermore, if all human activity were to cease, the aerosols we emit from our factories and cargo ships serve as artificial clouds/cooling, masking possibly an additional 0.5-2 degrees of warming on top of what we have now, enough to tip things into runaway warming.
In short, we are the walking dead. We lost already.
\>In short, even if all human activity were to cease right this moment, we have enough warming baked in from current and past pollution that it's still possible to tip things into runaway warming/feed back loops.
Wrong.
Warming stops when emissions are reduced to net-zero
[https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/MichaelEMann/status/1602867797268340738](https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/MichaelEMann/status/1602867797268340738)
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-will-global-warming-stop-as-soon-as-net-zero-emissions-are-reached/)
[https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/](https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/17/2987/)
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-](https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-)
​
the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-report-on-climate-science/#netzero
While this is disingenuous of me, and I apologize in self awareness of this, I will simply reply that it is will documented and deconstructed on this site, ranging back to even 2015, that the IPCC is a politically edited scientific report and leans heavily on the 'conservative' estimate, and both the IPCC and Michael Mann are known to propagate 'hopium', which is to say overly optimistic assessments, even when they are stating sober/pessimistic statements, that often ignore the many feedback loops and more cynical data, and both often point towards social and engineering solutions that are not realistically viable.
While I should bring up the links to counter yours, I don't have a back log built up, only my memory of the research and internet deep dives I have done over the years.
\>is well documented and deconstructed on this forum, ranging back to even 2015, that the IPCC is a politically edited scientific report and leans heavily on the 'conservative' estimate, and both the IPCC and Michael Mann are known to propagate 'hopium', which is to say overly optimistic assessments
Do you think that other morons from r/collapse are a credible source of information?
Then why are climate models used in previous IPCC reports so accurate and have predicted the pace of warming so well? Observed warming tends to track middle-of-the-range estimates from previous IPCC reports.
[https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/](https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2022/02/another-dot-on-the-graphs-part-ii/)
[https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right](https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-future-warming-projections-right)
All information in the ipcc report is from peer-reviewed papers, it's the most robust assessment of all scientific knowledge on climate change at the time of publication. Did you actually read the reports? There's a range of estimates with probability for everything, from best case to absolute worst case scenario with almost zero chance of occuring.
You probably should listen to what actual climate scientists say on the matter-
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1557421984484495362)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/hausfath/status/1491134605390352388)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/JoeriRogelj/status/1424743837277294603)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/PFriedling/status/1557705737446592512)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateAdam/status/1429730044776157185)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\\\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/Knutti\_ETH/status/1554473710404485120)
[https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m](https://nitter.kavin.rocks/ClimateOfGavin/status/1556735212083712002#m)
[https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/new-york-times-op-ed-claiming-scientists-underestimated-climate-change-lacks-supporting-evidence-eugene-linden/](https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/new-york-times-op-ed-claiming-scientists-underestimated-climate-change-lacks-supporting-evidence-eugene-linden/)
There were some models for the recent ipcc report that overestimate future warming and they were included too
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01192-2
\>david spratt
author of this article is the same person who have written the report which was panned by scientists who fact-checked it- https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/iflscience-story-on-speculative-report-provides-little-scientific-context-james-felton/
Hi, Gemini884. Thanks for contributing. However, your [comment](https://www.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1497249/-/jo7vcev/) was removed from /r/collapse for:
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Try to make your point without calling people who disagree with you "morons".
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Unless this planet is completely destroyed - as in complete sterilization via heat, radiation, or impact - I don’t think life will cease to exist on Earth. This planet has had many mass extinction events that we know of and none of them completely eradicated all life.
However, this situation could vastly reduce the population and variety of organisms and basically cause a “hard reboot”.
I don’t know… I feel like we’re underestimating the resilience of life. Past mass extinctions show that smaller generalist species tend to make it through. So, I’d put my money on rats and cockroaches at least. Raccoons and corvids are fairly resourceful too so I think they’d have a good chance.
Seriously. This is the most frustrating part about this sub. People drastically underestimate life's ability to survive. Have we made things like mass migrations for wildlife harder? Yeah, but it will happen. We are in the midst of the happening. We all only think on the terms of our own life, but that is gonna end way before things get so bad that %80 of life dies. People and animals will migrate. Other parts of the world will replace current habitable places. Will 8 billion humans go on like we are doing with our modern lifestyle? No. But there will be places on this planet with rain, and sun, and gardens will grow. It is a fantasy to imagine we are all going to die🤣 humanity is going to go on being insufferable. We all likely wont, but some will. No where will be "safe" from the effects. But short of basically wiping out the the whole atmosphere, things will keep spinning. But who knows. Maybe we will mess things up as bad as Mars 🤷♂️
To me, what justifies a large part of life’s suffering is the myth of progress, that we’re building toward something meaningful, and more intelligent, compassionate, and wise than ourselves. Life on earth ends in 250 million years when the sun warms enough to boil off earth’s oceans. If some future generation of humans, or whatever intelligence we can create, can find out a negative answer to “are we alone?” It may be worth it. Until then, best case, exponential growth till the heat death of the universe.
Exactly! I’m of the opinion that global warming will definitely cause total societal collapse. However, I still believe that, at the very least, small pockets of humanity will survive. Humanity has survived near extinction before. I have no doubt that various groups will independently return to a largely subsistence farming/hunter gatherers lifestyle with only some minor cottage industry.
Earth survived going from no oxygen to full photosynthesis and oxygen air.
Meteors.
Super volcanos.
Global ice ages
Global heating
Life will survive, even if we don't.
End-permian saw an increase of co2 concentrations from 426 ppm to \~2500 ppm. Co2 levels don't go past 600 ppm under rcp4.5(our current emissions scenario based on existing policies)-
[https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Time-series-of-CO2-concentration-ppm-under-RCP85-RCP6-RCP45-and-RCP26-provided-by\_fig1\_271078951](https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Time-series-of-CO2-concentration-ppm-under-RCP85-RCP6-RCP45-and-RCP26-provided-by_fig1_271078951)
The Permian-Triassic extinction featured far more extreme emissions and was amplified by many other factors that are not the case now.
There's not enought available fossil fuel resources to match the total amount emitted during that event. Do you think we will keep emitting at current rate for many more hundreds of years?
[https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22298-7](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-22298-7)
[https://eos.org/articles/how-modern-emissions-compare-to-ancient-extinction-level-events](https://eos.org/articles/how-modern-emissions-compare-to-ancient-extinction-level-events)
[https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/hausfath/status/1280282554889760768#m](https://nitter.lacontrevoie.fr/hausfath/status/1280282554889760768#m)
Information from IPCC report- It is likely that the proportion of all species at very high risk of extinction (categorised as “critically endangered” by the IUCN Red List) will reach 9% (maximum 14%) at 1.5C, 10% (18%) at 2C, 12% (29%) at 3C, 13% (39%) at 4C and 15% (48%) at 5C.
[https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/](https://www.carbonbrief.org/in-depth-qa-the-ipccs-sixth-assessment-on-how-climate-change-impacts-the-world/)
Two things that came immediately to my mind reading your comment: Once the aerosol masking effect goes away, things get really hot much quicker.
Once industrial civilization collapses, we probably won't have the resources and/or manpower to "block out the sun".
Oh buddy, why are you doing that to yourself lol this show is gold.
You gotta Watch Futurama on Hulu. It is a funny funny show. Also I think you can find full episodes on YouTube.
[Here is a video of Ogden Wernstrom. The arch nemesis of Professor Farnsworth. ](https://youtu.be/r6AB1rOWeuI)
It's seriously such a good show. We had our final episodes back in 2015 or something and they just renewed for new episodes this July. It's very exciting. The fan base is a little divided because of how we ended the show last time but if you watch it from episode one to the season 10 you will never be able to tell.me the shows wasted your time, never made you laugh, or gave you wholesome good feelings!! It's such a great show. If you like the Simpsons and Matt Groening. You will love his show Futurama.
Lol you are kind,but no. I would love to be a part of it if I could. I don't live in the state where they make the show at, so I doubt I could.. but that would be amazing
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I figured, but I removed it because it wasn't quite obvious enough that I couldn't see it being interpreted seriously and spinning off an unproductive argument of some kind.
It's pure science fiction, plus, to pull anything like that off we'd first need to have a cohesive global community, which we don't and will never have. Too many power mongering arschlochs mucking about fucking it all up.
Yep. I'm 38 and doing my part to ensure I don't make it another 38. Thankful to have experienced the back end of the 80s and the full extent of the 90s. Turned 16 in 2000. Goddamn what a time it was. We'll never reach that high point again.
Same concerns for nuclear power, honestly. Even though it is cleaner than pretty much anything else of its scale. Once the shit hits the fan, we won't be able to keep the reactors cooled.
Had to Google this but they're shutting down the last reactor there so hopefully not.
Really a Catch-22 though. Either shut them down now, go to fossil fuels, and make it worse. Or hope we can ride it out to reduce emissions and risk critical failure.
Almost like we should just be using less energy instead to focus on degrowth and a soft landing... But that'll never happen.
I love that blocking out the sun is even being thrown around as an option. Like we're doing a 'The Matrix' but not to fight AI machines that are using solar power to wage a global war, we're just dumb as fuck.
Blocking out the sun is truly the worst idea of all of them. It’s basically like “let’s just do what we do more. If we pollute like crazy maybe it will reverse the effect.”
First, it doesn’t solve all of the problems. Doesn’t solve top soil loss. Doesn’t solve biodiversity loss. Doesn’t solve lack of clean water.
Second, what happens next? What horrific side effects are we not able to predict? Acid rain? Mega storms? Uneven effects?
Your second paragraph is the important one. Far to many hopium addicts seem to believe that if we just green transportation, then all will be well. Completely overlooking or even being aware of all the other environmental issues still in play.
Well, the interesting thing is that nature ran some tests for us, back during the Little Ice Age, which would have been during the Late Medieval and into the Early Modern period (14th to 19th centuries).
Effectively, the sun was blocked by sulfur dioxide from volcanoes and the Earth cooled significantly. Years where there was no summer, sea ice where there had never been any before, snow during late spring.
It was a hard time for the lower classes but the upper classes barely seemed to notice. The Renaissance was a time of splendid culture, the rise of the middle class, the beginning of real science in Europe. Later, Mary Shelley used the dreary, cold weather of 1816 to write her famous work, cooped up with her husband (the poet Shelley) and Lord Byron.
It was a difficult time, there was famine and death, but it was also a time where humanity didn't just survive, but we *thrived*.
The idea of messing with the climate further was, to me, unthinkable only a few years ago. But, now I see that if we do nothing then we will be cooked to death in short order.
If we are doomed, as we apparently are, then what harm is there in making one last Hail Mary attempt at saving the day?
Humanity will be forced to live within much restricted population sizes, that is evident. But if we can accomplish a slow and managed decline while preserving civilization it would be much better than the alternative. Which would be a chaotic tumble into a new Dark Age, disorder and bloodshed would be the norm, and from such a dark place humanity may never return.
“Preserving civilization” is the part I think we should question. What do we mean by civilization? Do we mean human life on earth? Or so we mean the civilized lifestyles that we, in the global north, are accustomed to? If it’s the latter, then I think we need to fight that idea and rethink how we live.
Civilization in this case means the basic foundations upon which the essential functions of society rely upon. The accumulated knowledge that we pass from one generation to the next. Culture, language, basic beliefs. Essential technologies.
These can all be quickly and irrevocably lost if the reduction of the population is too drastic and violent.
A planned, guided and structured reduction in the population would hopefully prevent things from getting out of hand and everything being reduced to radioactive dust.
It’s too bad people flip out about family planning education. Simply giving every youth knowledge about safe sex and access to birth control would help significantly. But people freak out because they have competitive nationalist ideas and fears of being a minority.
The Black Death also played a part in the later Medieval period. Which also help establish the middle class.
I guess there's something to be said about a good culling ....
Won’t help. Humanity is an exponentially growing virus unless held in check, but there is nothing to hold it in check. We’ve overcome mother nature to some degree. Enough to doom the planet and everything else on it.
If we were to die 99%, we’d simply be back in 3,000 years or less, a blink in geological time, doing the exact same shit but the planet would have barely healed.
Honestly and sadly since we're all just a bunch of dumbass animals the only thing that could avoid that would be forced sterilization at birth for the majority of those born like we do to control unwanted pet populations.
The one thing I always think about with this question is that the Earth's population has roughly doubled since my birth.
I'm only nearly fifty, but it took humans 20k years to get to 4 billion, and then 50 to get to 8 billion.
Even if **90%** of humans were wiped out, it would take the population level back to about the 1820s or something.
I've been thinking that one of the worst case scenarios for avian flu in the USA might actually be the **best** possible thing that could happen to humanity, but only if the USA is hit especially hard in a way that cripples our healthcare system as such that forces us to actually abolish private property and do socialism.
Not so much if the USA fares well from avian flu but India, Pakistan and Indonesia collapse into fascism.
> I wonder if there's any chance of saving the majority of humanity. If that possibility has passed us by, then humanity might only be saved at all by some kind of deus ex machina event.
My opinion? No. Since you used the word "majority".
The carrying capacity of the planet if we live within our means is one eighth of what we have now. That's based on earth's population before the Haber Bosch process, and *gestures broadly at everything* were significantly more abundant and less polluted then.
In addition to what others have said, even if the amount of smoke could meaningfully block the sun, it would eventually run out. And at the scale we'd need to have measurable effects you're burning so many trees which is releasing tons of carbon into the atmosphere. You're also destroying the carbon sink ability of those forests to suck in carbon and produce oxygen
If there was a conspiracy to prevent climate change burning forests would have to be one of the worst ways to do it.
It's almost always lightning.
https://nationalpost.com/news/are-eco-terrorists-causing-all-the-fires
> Arson is always a feature of any particularly aggressive wildfire season, and Canadian enviro-extremists have certainly never shied away from large-scale property damage. But the balance of the evidence suggests that most of these fires are likely being sparked by their usual cause: Lightning.
I saw this video on tiktoc, showing the plumes of these canada fires springing up at once. The caption was suggesting that it was arson, since it all happened at once. But that makes no sense to me. How can people start fires at exactly the same time and same intensity all at once? If it were some crazy ocean’s 11 operation, there would be big fires and small fires and fires that don’t catch and peter out. And freaking josh taking forever to walk to the start point. Then they would have to coordinate it all 1 day after a huge lightning storm to have plausible deniability.
I hate those videos that are “just asking questions” but not explicitly stating what they are trying to say. All of those are bullshit. Makes me so mad.
I think the preferred terminology will be "allowed to", rather than "have to".
Our efforts right now are all inclined towards ways to continue BAU - carbon "credits", SRM, etc. Nothing confronts the basic, core problem that we *cannot* continue BAU. It's almost not confront-able.
Without even the slightest attempt to steer or manage our speed, the path downhill will be bumpy to put it mildly. But we'll use existing BAU tools to shape it - like capitalism. Inflation. Stuff like that.
\>The carrying capacity of the planet if we live within our means is one eighth of what we have now.
Current population can be sustained under a different/more just economic system.
[https://www.newscientist.com/article/2230525-our-current-food-system-can-feed-only-3-4-billion-people-sustainably/](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2230525-our-current-food-system-can-feed-only-3-4-billion-people-sustainably/)
[https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/foodfeatures/feeding-9-billion/)
[https://www.wri.org/insights/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts](https://www.wri.org/insights/how-sustainably-feed-10-billion-people-2050-21-charts)
[https://theconversation.com/how-10-billion-people-could-live-well-by-2050-using-as-much-energy-as-we-did-60-years-ago-146896](https://theconversation.com/how-10-billion-people-could-live-well-by-2050-using-as-much-energy-as-we-did-60-years-ago-146896)
[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320722003949](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0006320722003949)
https://ourworldindata.org/land-use-diets
I have a deus and a machina in my pocket, and the aliens are on deck. We can save a few. Our target core community size for our survival colony is ~15k humans. Opinions vary on the global total, and negotiations are ongoing.
If we had decided this was a problem and collectively decided to fix it far sooner rather than just basically not doing anything like we’re effectively doing right now, then we probably could have avoided this. As it is, I expect that humanity’s time on this planet is limited.
The only vaguely plausible ones I can think of would be:
* Benevolent AGI that takes over the world and all governments
* Some kind of miracle technology that's rapidly deployable and scales easily
* Benevolent Aliens/advanced intelligence
> Consider a situation where a majority of humanity dies from, say, a superflu. Drastically reducing the emissions, of course,...
I think it would have to be a combination of that, and some massive extraction and sequestration of existing greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere.
Shy of that combination of both fully stopping adding more gases, and removing the heat-amplifying gases already saturating the skies, we're toast.
Yeah. With capitalism, where it costs a lot of money to do something about it, but you get shit tons of profit by making it worse, obviously we'll keep making it worse. Sanity has long since left the building.
How is this rhetoric any different to climate denialism? Of course the problem is going to continue to get worse and worse if you deliberately provide zero opposition to it
I think about this a lot. The concept of economic or social inertia. It may be impossible to stop climate change without the invention of some radical technology. It’s hard for me to imagine any of the powerful nation states intentionally reducing economic output even though the effects would be 2 or more generations away.
You're only talking about China. I'm meaning all eastern countries including Thailand and Singapore amongst others.
And they had much less covid cases than the west and did much better overall with masking as I said
Yeah, and they’re building more renewable energy than anyone. Their renewable energy generation capacity is triple that of the second biggest country (US). They use so much more coal/other fossil fuels than us predominantly because we in the west exported most of our manufacturing to them. In the UK, we pat ourselves on the back thinking we’re so good now we’re (sometimes) generating 60% of our power from wind, and China are terrible for their coal usage, but I’m currently typing this on an iPhone built in China, transmitting it through a modem/router built in China, and through an internet network that (despite what the government are trying to achieve) is heavily designed and manufactured by Chinese companies. One of the reasons I chose my current car is because it was built in Britain with a battery built in Britain, but I’m positive the vast majority of components and materials have come from or through China. Give it a couple of decades and they will own what’s left of the world.
Its is. An Authoritarian government can just rude roughshod over its peoples wishes if it wants to. A Democracy gets voted out or fucked in the courts.
> What does it matter if we’re there yet?
This is the kind of statement you can only make if your life won't change that much either way.
*Of course* it matters, because if people are going to have any hope of adapting, fleeing, or responding to this situation in any way, it is **imperative** that we have a good, factual and scientific foundation of predictions and understandings to build on.
Doing the nihilistic take of "what does it matter, we'll all be dead in 100 years" is only an option for those who are totally certain that they will be alive and comfortable tomorrow.
And you are almost certainly a privileged member of the global upper class that enjoys the material benefits of life in the developed world, and are consequently protected enough from the short-term realities of climate change that you can treat collapse as a kind of entertaining media spectacle.
Your self-indulgent doomerism is the epitome of the casual callousness that guys on the Internet confuse with intelligence.
Accurately knowing how the climate is changing is of life-or-death significance to people all over the world. You though, would rather get your rocks off being a performative nihilist on the Internet rather than acknowledge that real human lives are in the balance.
Go back to playing video games.
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Working as a scientist on complex systems issues, including risks associated with higher-order interactions between climatic variables and biological stability.
Ans the masses are going to continue fueling and supporting and funding the corporations cuz people aren’t gonna stop shopping !!! People also have some responsibility/contribution to pollution. Plus electricity and heating and meat production and plastic trash pollution
Not right, some (such as oil and gas) are well informed and know the sh\*t will hit the fan soon (big catastrophes with expensive bills attached) so they try to push A LOT, every where, and to gorge themselves A LOT in the next few years...
Ironically we have become so dependent on smog to block out part of the sunlight and hide the true heating associated with our greenhouse gas emissions until now that any drop in smog output is dangerous. That’s why, in the article, they point to reduced sulfur emissions from ships as a possible contributing factor to this recent burst of warming.
It’s fine tho because I had a conversation the other day where I was told that because we’ve had a rather chilly June in Ohio so far that climate change isn’t real. So cheer up!
Sounds like 40% of Norwegians. Either it's a conspiracy started by the UN and climate activists to make money (somehow), or it's real but it's completely natural because the climate has always changed.
The green party only got like 3,5% of the votes last election. It's fucking depressing.
I'm Norwegian too and 40% is obviously hyperbole. The real number is around 24% percent which is still staggering to me. Wtf is wrong with people? You'd think we would be more educated and aware, but I guess that's just hubris
https://www.nrk.no/tromsogfinnmark/eu-studie-om-klimaforskning_-nordmenn-tror-minst-pa-klimaendringer-1.16022374
Plus i thought the oil industry is nationalized in Norway so the citizens actually see some benefit. Where in the USA BP can ruin the Gulf of Mexico while DuPont dumps Teflon in your back yard and you still only make 7.25 an hour so there’s not much you can do.
There’s so much smoke out right now and people are out fucking gardening, walking dogs and taking leisurely bike rides. People are fucking insane. My coworker voluntarily went out to watch some local baseball game, I asked if this were cigarette smoke would you go out and he said no but this is just forest fire smoke. The willfulness to go against their own health to act like everything this fine is so god damn crazy!
Mind boggling that climate change means only that liberals are making this stuff up, not that a rather chilly June in Ohio is evidence of a changed climate.
SS: This article outlines the factors that have contributed to record north Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures. Besides El Nino, a jet stream blocking pattern in northern Canada has resulted in air currents that result in warmer north Atlantic temperatures, where surface temperatures have already reached what would be a typical summer high in September. An additional factor in the Atlantic is reduced dust from the Sahara, and possibly reduced sulfur emissions from ships. So there is a combination of natural and human factors creating the situation. Is this evidence of a tipping point? Hard to say at this point but if it isn't, it's fair to say that it will be breached in the coming years.
Well we already have a lot of space junk up there and we know how to make uv reflective blankets so it isn't as big of a leap in technology like self driving would be. It's more of a materials and cost issue, plus perhaps scaffolding to get the blanket to lay flat and orient towards the sun (which is also not a technology issue)
“You know, I know this steak doesn't exist. I know that when I put it in my mouth, the Matrix is telling my brain that it is juicy and delicious. After nine years, you know what I realize? Ignorance is bliss.”
I’m skeptical. Aerosol optical depth over the temperate North Atlantic has been running off the charts due to Canadian wildfire smoke. The oceanic heat wave is IN SPITE OF record high aerosols, and not occurring contemporaneously with low aerosols (which is what you would expect if the warming were attributed to low aerosols). More likely we’ve just tripped additional feedback loops and the climate is more sensitive to increases in GHGs than modeled.
If we assume the drop in sulphur particulates is the cause of the increase, would the wildfires not affect things more in the short to medium-term as opposed to immediate term?
The resolution on shipping fuel came in in 2020, of which we've had energy absorption increasing over that time. I would presume it takes longer than a couple of weeks of smoke particles to cool the system down significantly when the energy is already in the system
Fun fact: Water vapor is not only a greenhouse gas, but its one of the MOST FUCKING POTENT GREENHOUSE GASES POSSIBLE.
People like to hide this fact because they think it takes away from the idea the emissions should be limited, but reality is far more terrifying.
***It means that if a certain threshold is passed the oceans can just start evaporating and never, ever stop until they're completely bone fucking dry.***
Not necessarily; the final blackpill is studies of alledged fates of water vapor on Venus. Atmosphere, including water, is slowly stripped away by radiation in space. As far as I understand, the levels are too low to have any discernible impact on earth water content as it is now. Runaway warming effects may increase atmospheric water content to an extent that exacerbates net loss of water. This essentially means that slowly, over thousands or millions of years, our planet's water will disappear, leaving Earth a barren rock _forever_. Some simulations suggest 1'200 ppms of CO2 as a critical threshold for stratocumulus cloud dispersal, whereafter runaway is unstoppable. This is an extremely dystopian thought, it sometimes hits me and I weep.
>including water, is slowly stripped away by radiation in space.
That's like saying the water in a pot is slowly ripped away by radiation from the flame.
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I'd like to think there's life elsewhere in the universe but it's also possible this rock we call Earth is the only one that can support life. When humanity has destroyed itself and all the animal life there's a good possibility the universe will be completely devoid of life, just one unimaginably big space where stars just burn and die and nothing else. And humanity will be responsible for that. Just think about that for a second, there's a pretty big chance humanity will destroy all life in the entire universe.
Look at it this way, lets say there are bunch of Star Trek-like aliens flitting around the Cosmos. We don't know they exist because, let's say they're smart and want to steer clear of us. Well, the universe is going to die at some point anyway, so what does it matter if we're the only life in the universe or not? Someday there won't even be a universe.
Gee, somehow this really puts things in perspective. The 2-3 minutes I spent today in the grocery aisle deciding between two types of granola, deliberating which was the better value and less sugar, seems really fucking inconsequential.
From what I've been reading, yes. My opinion is that we have already passed the point of no return.
That doesn't mean that I've given up doing what is right because I don't believe in just blowing through our natural resources or mowing over ecosystems. We share the planet, it's not ours.
But I definitely don't buy into the message tindustrializationhst of the ocean will save us. We are just destroying another environment so we can continue to use the same amount of electricity, if not more.
[https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mNv4TGx2bO5sOSziCm4PR9nqnCN\_FEqW/view?pli=1](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mNv4TGx2bO5sOSziCm4PR9nqnCN_FEqW/view?pli=1)
We past the point of no return in the 80s lol.
Great pdf. Downloaded and gonna read later. I did climate change modules around 10 years ago and I remember my professor said we were fucked back then. Think we have been for decades now. Maybe even centuries.
Well if you ultimately consider the real cause of all of this is humanity'a psychology then yeah. This shit was set in stone for a long time. And we will finally have to mature emotionally if we don't want to *checks notes* end humanity. Because even if all this didnt do it. I swear without us developing further as reflecting, conscious creatures we will be right back here in some form in a couple thousand years. But it can be done. Once upon a time we didn't even have language and now look at us. We can keep evolving.. hopefully
> And we will finally have to mature emotionally if we don't want to checks notes end humanity.
...on an absolutely massive scale, while overhauling the whole foundation of how we view modern life and keeping in-fighting to a minimum. Maybe it *can* be done, but it won't.
Without wars, we'd actually be much worse off. Between the lowering of population, and the lack of technology advances directly tied to war. Unless somehow some soldier who died, possibly would have been green techs Einstein, had he lived long enough.
Back in school 15 years ago there was an interesting presentation from a visiting professor about how we've been altering climate via emissions much longer than people think.
His theory was that large-scale rice farming in south east Asia, and the subsequent anaerobic conditions in rice-paddies had significant impacts in terms of methane release. That occurred thousands of years ago and far earlier than widescale use of oil/gas.
It's an interesting thing to think about, not that it in any way discounts the insane ghg pollution of the past 200 years.
Ehrlich tried to warn people and then they decided he was completely wrong about overshoot simply because we temporarily delayed it. He will get the last laugh though.
> Ehrlich tried to warn people and then they decided he was completely wrong about overshoot simply because we temporarily delayed it.
That reminds me of peak oil. It looks like it was real after all, and it happened in 2018. However, peak net oil might have occurred already in 2016.
Yeah, it's going to be an ugly decade in 2030. Shit is starting now, and imo, those of us alive in 2030 are going to look back on 2023 and think, man those were the good days.
My reason for doing the right thing is more selfish. I know resource limits will be imposed upon me soon, so I am learning to live more simply now to work out the kinks.
More time in the pool and on the beach! Hope there isn't a giant fish kill, algae bloom, flesh eating bacteria outbreak or other pesky things to ruin my BEACH DAYS
It doesn't matter when I can jump in my F350 and drive everywhere. I sometimes just sit on the beach in my F350 and idle with the AC on because the ocean is BOILING
Hey now r/bacondavis, it may look bad, but we have to research and write a paper, then let it go through the peer review process before we can acknowledge anything as actual, so don’t worry, that means what we are seeing and experiencing isn’t as bad as it could be!
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Wondering if there's a feedback loop forming with less ice coverage. All the heat that was going towards melting ice instead going towards heating water
Pretty much how it'll go. The energy required to melt ice is way higher than the energy to heat water, so when the ice runs out it's gonna heat up like crazy
I have been trying to convince my brother that he needs to move out of the hurricane zone, but he doesn't want to change jobs. It is a difficult situation for many.
I live at sea level, my parents live at sea level, my in-laws live at sea level, all of us work at sea level; all of this in an earthquake zone that's overdue for a decent shake. One event can put my entire branch of the family completely in shambles but no one, not even my wife will listen to me about moving to an area that isn't risking all of this because "this is where we've always lived" and similar arguments. It's pretty mind blowing
as someone who has never lived in one place for over 3 years... it's romantic to me how people get attached to their homes and where they grew up. like there is no life beyond this life. i've never felt that way about a town, and have always been curious about it. i'll never grow up somewhere now, nor consider some place my "home town", but i certain see that there are lots of people like that and respect them for it.
we dont need clickbait guys.. we all know we're about to burn.
> The shocking visual is prompting many to ask whether this recent surge is evidence that human-caused heating has propelled the climate past a tipping point.
> Luckily, climate scientists say the **answer is likely no**. Instead, it is much more probable to be a compounding coalescence of various factors – some natural and some human-caused. In other words, a coincidence of natural factors piled on top of the steady trend of human-caused global heating.
Everything they publish on the topic is full of doublespeak and mixed messaging. They think their article will make you forget about your climate worries and go to work, because smart people are working on it.
Tipping points don't cause sudden change within the space of a week. We may have passed tipping points already, but this sudden spike in June is due to a sudden, strong El Niño.
Climate change is extremely dangerous, and will likely kill most of us. It's also important to have the facts right.
Don’t think you’ve been paying attention. El Niño has barely just begun, these increased temps are from 75% reduced sulfur in shipping lanes starting in 2020, lack of Sahara dust and climate change
The spike is a combination of a sudden strong El Niño (which increases temperatures globally, not just in the Pacific) and a lack of Saharan dust (possibly related to El Niño). Climate change didn't cause this spike, but it's increased the baseline it's coming from, making it more dangerous.
Reduced sulfur pollution, as far as I can tell, is only being theorised by a few scientists and currently is a controversial explanation. We're not sure about that yet, it is a possibility.
Okay but isn’t the picture of a wiggly line trending upwards? Yeah there’s variance and this particular spike isn’t *entirely* caused by climate change but the *base of the spike* ie the reason it can get so high in the first place, is absolutely man made?
Yes. This is a complex event that is tripping up a lot of people.
The spike itself is natural. The fact that having a spike at all leads to *this level* of heat is man-made.
Climate change is human-caused. The specific spike in June is caused by natural causes (El Niño and lack of Saharan dust, mainly).
The sudden spike we see here is the addition of natural variability (in a horrible coincidence) to the already-high level of human-caused climate change.
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The article briefly mentions Hunga Tonga which is was a big wildcard:
https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere
**Aug 2, 2022**
*"Tonga Eruption Blasted Unprecedented Amount of Water Into Stratosphere*
*The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, could end up temporarily warming Earth’s surface.*
*In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. *
*This extra water vapor could influence atmospheric chemistry, boosting certain chemical reactions that could temporarily worsen depletion of the ozone layer. It could also influence surface temperatures. Massive volcanic eruptions like Krakatoa and Mount Pinatubo typically cool Earth’s surface by ejecting gases, dust, and ash that reflect sunlight back into space. In contrast, the Tonga volcano didn’t inject large amounts of aerosols into the stratosphere, and the huge amounts of water vapor from the eruption may have a small, temporary warming effect, since water vapor traps heat."*
The 'climate anomalies getting posted daily to twitter' have finally gotten news media attention. Aside from OP there is:
[https://www.axios.com/2023/06/13/climate-extremes-warming-charts-concerns](https://www.axios.com/2023/06/13/climate-extremes-warming-charts-concerns)
[https://uk.news.yahoo.com/north-atlantic-temperature-anomaly-sparks-141634363.html](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/north-atlantic-temperature-anomaly-sparks-141634363.html)
[https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-06-13/rising-temps-in-the-north-atlantic-have-startled-researchers](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-06-13/rising-temps-in-the-north-atlantic-have-startled-researchers)
[https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-65339934)
[https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1668129673987993600](https://twitter.com/GMB/status/1668129673987993600)
One of the Twitter posts I saw said that 50% of the warming that's occurred in the North Atlantic happened in the space of _two weeks_. How the hell is that even possible?
LOL in the BBC article you could tell the scientists (who are probably doomers) were asked to come up with some good news, so one of them was like “maybe the temps will go down after El Niño ends?”
>But as 2023 unfolds, El Niño will continue to intensify in the Pacific, infusing the climate system with even more energy. On top of global heating, this will supercharge global weather patterns yielding extremes modern man has yet to experience.
Ominous.
But the shipping idea is interesting.
This year seems to be the important one for changes: https://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/PressBriefings/pages/CII-and-EEXI-entry-into-force.aspx
But this paper suggests that's the effect is overestimated:
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abd3980
>Aerosol-cloud-climate cooling overestimated by ship-track data
>The effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the reflectivity of stratocumulus cloud decks through changes in cloud amount is a major uncertainty in climate projections. In frequently occurring nonprecipitating stratocumulus, cloud amount can decrease through aerosol-enhanced cloud-top mixing. The climatological relevance of this effect is debated because ship exhaust only marginally reduces stratocumulus amount. By comparing detailed numerical simulations with satellite analyses, we show that ship-track studies cannot be generalized to estimate the climatological forcing of anthropogenic aerosol. The ship track–derived sensitivity of the radiative effect of nonprecipitating stratocumulus to aerosol overestimates their cooling effect by up to 200%. The offsetting warming effect of decreasing stratocumulus amount needs to be taken into account if we are to constrain the cloud-mediated radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol.
From what I've seen, shipping regulations would only impact this by a very small degree.
Much more likely the spike is largely attributable to a sudden, powerful El Niño.
Found this in the NOAA site:
https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/how-hurricanes-form.html#:~:text=Warm%20ocean%20waters%20and%20thunderstorms,enhancing%20shower%20and%20thunderstorm%20activity.
Depends how much the messed up jetstream messes with them. I think a slightly below average hurricane season was forecast, however we could see the ones that actually do form rapidly intensify
I've looked at Tropical Tidbits every day for years now, even donated on his Patreon for a short while, he is indeed a great scientist. His name is Levi BTW.
Oh man. You're right! I knew that too! And really...it's Dr. Levi
I recommend that channel to anyone who is remotely interested in weather. Especially anyone who is a Weather Channel refugee fleeing declining quality content.
Same here, I got into watching extreme weather years ago and he was the first recommendation for looking at (free) forecasts on the storm2k forums. I'm sure it's a mostly thankless service but we are lucky to have people like him.
I wonder if it's thankless though. I have no idea if he gets some money from his videos. I always wonder about wonderful content creators and where they get their funding. I recently came across these extreme ski/board videos that are remarkably done. And they get funding from certain companies but still the production value is top notch. I still think it kinda amateurs just really being good at what that do. That's Levi. I wish him well.
---
https://youtu.be/aaeBN_JYkcA
No, it was because of farm runoff. The Dead Zone is a hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico. Fish kills have happened before there, and what's awful is that our farming practices have not changed and the fish continue to pile up. Climate change may intensify the bloom, but it doesn't cause it.
This summer clearly shows just how much heating our pollution is masking. The SO2 shipping fuel was cut back in 2020 and only three years later were hitting records everywhere. Won’t cutting back on other emissions just make everything worse in the short term? Damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Shit.
Any speculation on how the unprecedented forest fires are affecting air circulation? The smoke has blanketed the sky in Manitoba and reflected sunlight.
For once, that's a reassuring article.
I mean, yeah SST is off the charts, but at least it's not -YET- because we broke a tipping point. It's only because we were inconsequent in the last decades. Phew, bullet avoided.
The following submission statement was provided by /u/ontrack:
---
SS: This article outlines the factors that have contributed to record north Atlantic and Pacific ocean temperatures. Besides El Nino, a jet stream blocking pattern in northern Canada has resulted in air currents that result in warmer north Atlantic temperatures, where surface temperatures have already reached what would be a typical summer high in September. An additional factor in the Atlantic is reduced dust from the Sahara, and possibly reduced sulfur emissions from ships. So there is a combination of natural and human factors creating the situation. Is this evidence of a tipping point? Hard to say at this point but if it isn't, it's fair to say that it will be breached in the coming years, and we are headed for catastrophic heating which will make it difficult to sustain advanced civilizations (i.e. collapse).
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1497249/spike_in_ocean_heat_stuns_scientists_have_we/jo3ims6/
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