56 meters Perini sailing yacht Bayesian sunk near Sicily; 7 missing

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twocentstoo@reddit

Check out Google Ai search results on the yacht ... it offers extensive info. re. its 45 degree tilt believing it was some sort of water spout tornado that with the high mast and a few other things took it down 160 feet of water. they did raise it and it appears from picture that it landed upright as the top surface of the ship is perfectly fine without any bent appearance ... it is however very dirty!! copied LINK below of before and after it sank and was raised. [https://www.google.com/search?q=reddit+on+largest+sailboat+that+sank+while+anchored+from+storm&rlz=1C1GCEA\_enUS884US884&oq=reddit+on+largest+sailboat+that+sank+while+anchored+from+storm&gs\_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjIwNjI2ajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8](https://www.google.com/search?q=reddit+on+largest+sailboat+that+sank+while+anchored+from+storm&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS884US884&oq=reddit+on+largest+sailboat+that+sank+while+anchored+from+storm&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOdIBCjIwNjI2ajBqMTWoAgiwAgE&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8)

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cpoik@reddit

The ship I’m on sailed through that storm last night. It was very violent and I could see how it got capsized. The ship is over a 100,000 tonnes and it felt like it was often reaching ten degree lists on both sides

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Jazzlike_Draw_2449@reddit

Was there prior warning of that storm from weather forecast or completely unexpected?

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cpoik@reddit

There was word of an upcoming storm on the ship, but the violence and extremity of it surpassed expectations

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muzishen@reddit

As per u/low-math4158 [this](https://www.ilmessaggero.it/en/mediterranean_cyclone_to_hit_italy_with_severe_storms_and_extreme_weather-8299379.html) was the severe storm warning issued.

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homer_lives@reddit

I am glad you made it safely in. Thank you for the information.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Interesting info in [this archived article](https://archive.ph/m5JKT) about the Italian investigations: The public prosecutor's office is investigating the hypothesis that the emergency system that is supposed to "seal off" the boat did not engage because the water entered too suddenly. Another hypothesis is that the stern of the boat was lifted by a wave - the survivors described that the boat went down bow first.

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Young-Independence@reddit

Interesting. I have read that before in the Italian media - no obvious damage to the boat or mast. If that’s true I wonder if it was even hit by waterspout.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Have you seen the video that shows the moments before she went down? It looks like the lights on the mast went out - captain Börner may have interpreted that as the mast breaking. Maybe a power failure? That might explain the lights going out and the sealing system not engaging. One open point was whether any hatches, portholes etc. were left open. [This article states](https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2024/08/veliero-bayesian-affondato--tromba-marina-porticello-sicilia-dispersi-morti-sommozzatori-inchiesta-938df604-54a8-49aa-aaad-30328902047a.html) that the insurance brokers assume 1. that the tender garage was left open because the passengers returned late, and 2. that the keel was "partially up". u/ObviousOrca very kindly shared a link to the layout drawing of the Bayesian in an [earlier post](https://www.reddit.com/r/sailing/comments/1ex84w3/bayesian_blueprint/). If I interpret this correctly, the middle drawing shows two garages forward, one on either side, and in the drawing one houses a tender and the other one contains what I think may be jetskis. If the starboard garage was indeed left open, we wouldn't know that yet because the ship settled on her starboard side. Of course, it's understandable that the insurance company, as well as the shipbuilding company, would point to "user error" as the main cause of the sinking. I hope the press conference that that public prosecutor's office announced for tomorrow will bring us more information.

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Young-Independence@reddit

That’s a good point, maybe he couldn’t see the mast. What’s odd about the video is that the masthead light, which stays on, presumably on a different circuit, shows the mast as relatively stable. It could be that rather than going out the boat is twisting away so you can’t see them or that the squall obscures the lights. That video does not show footage of the sinking as was first claimed that’s for sure.

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ObviousOrca@reddit

I beg your pardon? No, you’re not interpreting it correctly. Thanks for mentioning my post with the layout, I made no mention of port or starboard though as it’s visible in the graphic and clearly you have yours mixed up? Are you drunk or trolling?

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

I have read multiple Italian articles that refer to the boat as lying on the right-hand (i.e. starboard) side, so that's not my invention but what the divers supposedly reported. See [this article](https://archive.ph/m5JKT#selection-4085.119-4085.146), it says that the boat is "adagiato sul fianco destro." Do you have any other sources that say the opposite? I have no idea what, if anything, was kept in either garage, of course. I guess that would have been up to the users of the boat. Nor do I know how faithful the drawing is to the current layout of the boat.

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ObviousOrca@reddit

yes, this is what I’ve read too. I think at this point it’s just best to wait for the investigation

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Young-Independence@reddit

I don’t know if the quote from Borner is even accurate - there’s been so many conflicting statements. I’d have thought if the mast did break the boat would have been less likely to capsize. I can’t get my head round leaving a tender garage open with a storm forecast. I think user error is a fair inference for the moment - unless the waterspout caused terrible damage or they were struck by lightning - what else could it be?

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

In [this (archived) German-language interview](https://archive.ph/T0uys) he says that they occasionally looked over to the Bayesian, but all of a sudden she had disappeared. They then checked the AIS, and the Bayesian was gone from there as well, and then they saw the signal flare. He also mentions that it had been said that the mast had broken, but that he thinks this made no sense, and that one will have clarity when the boat is raised or examined underwater.

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ObviousOrca@reddit

I read multiple articles in English and Italian (probably trying to copy or one up each other) that there were electric wires/cables all over the bridge and engine room (again, everybody mixing things up…which one was it?) that the divers had to try to get through. Wait for the investigation now that the families can properly grieve thanks to the efficient work of the Italian coast guard.

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Consistent-Side-8583@reddit

I'm amazed that on a specialized sailing feed literally almost every comment was focusing on how everyone else is a misinformed moron for not thinking a waterspout had sunk the ship. So, the waterspout thing has now been disproven. Experts say it's a downburst, that the keel was found raised and numerous hatches were left open by the captain. So the storm didn't sink the ship. The lack of keel and open hatches did. Hence, the conversation now must be: How unlikely is it that the captain did this by accident given clear indications of a storm? An experienced captain doesn't lower the keel and leaves hatched open? Also, ensures crew is safe but not those involved in the case? I don't know man...

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romanohere@reddit

They will find the missing people... they are in the boat

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

The local news just interviewed the chief of the search party. He said they only have 12 minutes to be at that depth and so far only have explored the outside of the sunk ship, while the access to inside is "blocked by furniture" so they will keep exploring to find an access to inside. What a tragedy.

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tokalita@reddit

The 12 minutes dive time at that depth is really surprising to me as a diver, because it sounds like they're just doing regular dives with regular tanks when they really should be doing a technical dive at that depth. A technical dive would extend their bottom time (time allowed at the depth of 50m in this instance) and if they were using trimix air we'd be looking at 15-25 mins allowable at that depth. So it's unclear why they seem to be doing a non-technical dive on what is an urgent rescue & recover mission.

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Consistent-Side-8583@reddit

Excuse to pillage the boat.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Understandable. From what I read these are specialized "speleodivers" which are used in caves and very small spaces. Maybe simple air tanks are smaller for that purpose?

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quick_dry@reddit

the comment above saved me doing the maths but it was what I was going to write as well :) 50m isn't a particularly challenging depth so long as you're prepared for it, especially as professional dive teams that can use proper gas mixes and easily account for adding safety/decompression time to the dive. (at 50m depth, you'd be at danger of oxygen toxicity from using standard 'air', they need to use a mix like trimix with less oxygen in it. Particularly in a work environment where they need to consider safety of the divers and not just being recerational daredvils) The tanks would all be standard size, but sometimes instead of wearing double tanks on your back you might wear them down under your arms "sidemount" which is common in caves because you're a bit 'tighter' and able to move the tanks through cave restrictions. As a team diving from a boat, what is common is having additional tanks suspended on a rope down into the water, so you can carry your main supply for 'working' and then on the way back to the boat when you have to wait and 'decompress' you can use those fresh tanks waiting for you.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

I just heard the interview of the chief of the divers. As much as I respect your insights he says they have the equipment, people and skills to do what they need. They are from our national firefighting dept ("Vigili del fuoco") and I guess that they know well what can be done and that being on the spot gives them loads of info we might miss. Yesterday they have performed 5 dives the last one at 11:30PM and this morning they have restarted at 08:00AM.

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quick_dry@reddit

oh for sure, it’d be interesting to know their scheduling and how they plan it all out, particularly with things like multiple dives, safety parameters for workers, accounting for possible extra exertion and how the added gas consumption will play into deco, etc.

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nesp12@reddit

No way would wind sink that boat. The worst even a tornado it would do is knock it down and then it would right itself again. My guess without knowing anything about what was found is that it lost its keel. That could sink any sailboat.

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zoinkability@reddit

A tornado will tear a house apart. Why wouldn’t it tear a boat apart as well?

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goodmammajamma@reddit

lots of people in this thread who clearly don't live anywhere with waterspouts. They're serious business.

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Consistent-Side-8583@reddit

They are generally less destructive than tornadoes. And how only one boat devastatingly damaged? It makes little sense. You have to admit.

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zoinkability@reddit

Yeah, I don't understand why so many people are committed to the idea that a waterspout can't harm a boat, or only could harm it in a very specific way. I live in the US Midwest and a direct hit by a tornado is not going to end well for almost any structure short of a bunker. Anyone who has seen the aftermath of a tornado (like, the way trees are essentially twisted apart) would not discount how destructive these things are.

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BlahBlahBlackCheap@reddit

Waterspouts generally are not as strong as the classic Midwest American tornados though, because of the friction with the water.

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zoinkability@reddit

You may be thinking about fair weather waterspouts. Tornadic waterspouts are a whole different thing. [Info comparing the two](https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/waterspout.html).

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goodmammajamma@reddit

Especially when you're talking about a huge sailboat like this, all it takes is a few specific parts of the rig to fail and the whole thing is going to have some big big problems

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Bitter-Economics-975@reddit

The forces on a sailing yacht, under normal sailing conditions, are unlike anything a house in most of the world will ever have to experience. Of course failure is always possible, but hurricane damage is usually from interacting with a dock, another boat, or the shore.

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zoinkability@reddit

A tornado is extremely different from a hurricane. To something as small as a boat a hurricane presents as wind -- high wind to be sure, but wind nonetheless. A tornado is more like a buzzsaw.

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Bitter-Economics-975@reddit

Hurricanes spawn tornados and direct hits have numerous signs of tornado damage in the eye wall. You are right, tornado damage is usually very different, but my point is the design of the two can’t be compared because they are built with completely different intentions and interact with the wind in a different way. I’m also not saying a tornado can’t damage a yacht, but that yachts sink without being ‘torn apart’.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

I'd bet the term is inappropriate and thrown in by a land dwelling general reporter.

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zoinkability@reddit

Regardless of whether a tornado was in fact responsible for this tragedy (perhaps best to wait until some official report), I was responding to someone who was claiming that "the worst even a tornado it would do is knock it down and then it would right itself again" which is just categorically untrue.

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Sea_Principle178@reddit

My attention to possible loss of keel was spurred on by report of one of the rescued and a rescuer that the vessel was heeled over and taking on water over the side.

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wkavinsky@reddit

Except that are literal reports from local fishermen (who can be reasonably expected to be familiar with the local weather) that there was a tornado at 3:55am, and distress flares from the location of the yacht minutes later.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Being familiar with the local language, weather and culture I strongly doubt that was a tornado strictly speaking and the words you read are written by the usually incompetent journalist. Of course I may be wrong, I'm just expressing my opinion.

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nesp12@reddit

Because, unlike a house, a boat isn't fixed firmly to the ground. For a house, the lateral forces from a tornado acting against a fixed surface like a roof or a wall will overpower its shear strength and collapse it or suck it up into the air. A sailboat OTOH is built to sway and yield so it will rock heavily and the mast may go underwater but a monohull will pop back up. Think of it like the way they build earthquake proof buildings. They allow them to yield a bit to the earthquake forces.

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zoinkability@reddit

A tornado is categorically different from high winds in a squall or microburst, however. A tornado has winds rotating in a tiny diameter, smaller than the boat itself, resulting in a combination of extreme forces that push differently on different parts of the boat. Most boats are not in fact designed to handle those kinds of extreme twisting forces. The action would be less one of knocking the boat over so much as tearing at it. Anything that presents a surface to the wind will be subject to breaking and being thrown at other parts of the vessel. Yes, the mast, but really anything else: the boom, any and all rigging, rails, etc. And the tornado vortex itself has extreme low pressure that could blow out windows/hatches/etc and further expose the boat to damage from the winds. And let's not forget the likelihood that the boat was anchored, meaning it may gave had one or more points by which it was not free to sway and yield.

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nesp12@reddit

Good points. I guess we will see what the analysts say after they look at the wreck.

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brufleth@reddit

Houses aren't generally designed to be picked up and tossed around. Not saying a boat would survive a tornado, but I could see how one could come through better than a house. All buttoned up a sailboat can be a pretty durable little capsule. The boat in this case was huge though. Looks like plenty for high winds to catch on.

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Shipkiller-in-theory@reddit

The schooners USS Scourge and Havoc both capsized and sank on Lake Ontario during the war of 1812 due to a sudden gale, so it can happen.

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nesp12@reddit

I'm not an expert in old ships but I believe those were schooners converted from Naval use or had dual use. They were top heavy with cannons and had little or no keel. Quite different from modern sail plans.

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Lumpy-Economics2021@reddit

And according to the fisherman who came to it, there was wreckage all over. I think something happened that caused it to run aground and break up quickly.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Yes that of course is a good hypothesis. Could it be that the mast collapsing could somehow dislodge the keel or breach the hull in a disastrous way? With freak winds that mast alone could generate huge forces I guess and maybe even more so if some sail was up to steady the boat from rolling while moored ... just wild guesses of course.

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nesp12@reddit

I agree that the large mast could've had something to do with it, but it would require a high degree of incompetence at managing the boat. If I were to think of ways to sink such a large sailboat without involving the keel, I'd have full sails up and all the hatches and berth doors open while it got knocked down repeatedly. Not likely with the professional crew that yachts like that typically carry.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

My same thoughts. Maybe some of the survivors will give us better clues. Poor people.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

The body of Hannah Lynch has also been recovered, according to [this article](https://archive.ph/N6MuQ).

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Poor girl :( So young. I lost my bro as he was 15 and know the pain you'll carry for the rest of your life. The article's ending also sounds ominous for the crew: "**omicidio colposo plurimo e naufragio colposo**" * **"Omicidio colposo plurimo"**: Multiple counts of involuntary manslaughter * **"Naufragio colposo"**: Involuntary shipwreck (or causing a shipwreck due to negligence)

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

It's an unexplained death and thus has to be investigated. You are right that it does not sound good for the crew (and possibly for the legal owner, Mike Lynch's widow and Hannah's mother). It may turn out one of those situations where a long chain of small things combine to cause a catastrophe.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Horrible

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Seems judgmental to me. No one can predict tornados etc; if they weren’t forecast. Ngā mihi

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Giovanni Costantino, founder and CEO of The Italian Sea Group (which owns the Perini shipbuilding company, which built the Bayesian) claims that that "the people shouldn't have been in their cabins, the ship shouldn't have been at anchor" and that the weather forecasts he has seen indicated that such conditions were foreseeable ([article in Italian](https://www.giornaledipuglia.com/2024/08/naufragio-del-bayesian-le-dure-parole.html)).

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Wait and see…. More than Giovanni could do (oh how Italians love the ‘poor me/wasn’t us’ game, besides…) as he sladerously lay blame before proper investigations are barely underway…

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

There should be a press conference tomorrow, held by the public prosecutor's office, according to [this article](https://www.ansa.it/sito/notizie/cronaca/2024/08/22/linchiesta-sul-bayesian-si-punta-su-una-catena-di-errori_fadff719-9e44-489e-b13d-3c2c19d9b1d7.html). The public prosecutor's office has already interviewed the captain and the other survivors. There may be more information resulting from the press conference or not. I think the MAIB investigation is proceeding in parallel since this is a UK vessel.

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Very interesting, thank you. Though my ex partner was Italian (and a sailor!) I can’t read Italian, any extra info translated would be very appreciated, Grazie..!

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

The English articles tnd to provide only part of what is available in Italian, which is why I'm going to the Italian-language articles.

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Obviously he’s going to blame the crew, and not his multi million dollar design with its ‘unsurpassed’ mast….

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Agreed

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Low_Ambassador_9805@reddit

Look up typhoon Cobra

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

This has me wondering if that massive mast was to blame. It has a huge cross section and under freak storm conditions could be subject to immense forces. I wonder whether the boat was not designed for such forces and the mast was ripped from the hull. Instead of getting knocked down like a regular yacht, the mast tore off. That would be a logical explanation for the kind of catastrophic failure that happened. A large hull breach like that would sink a boat if that size in minutes.

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icanhazkarma17@reddit

> the boat was not designed for such forces Strange thing is that Google tells me that water spouts generally have windspeeds of 50 mph or less.

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windsostrange@reddit

There are two distinct atmospheric phenomena that are confusing referred to as "waterspouts." You are almost certainly referring to the first phenomenon, sometimes also called "water devils," always also referred to as "non-tornadic." These are not associated with storms that normally cause tornadoes: no rotating updraft, low winds, etc. These rarely have the ability to cause damage. The second thing people refer to when they use the term "waterspout" is a tornado over water, a phenomenon that is associated with severe thunderstorms and acts precisely like land-based tornadoes. These can cause catastrophic damage. Since the wreck occurred in an area experiencing severe thunderstorm activity, let's surmise that SV Bayesian was wrecked by the second variety of waterspout, which is a full-strength tornado that happens to be over water. Secondary note: Those quick "FAQ" answers that Google presents when you enter a search are not vetted and are known to be full of misinformation, as they were in this case. [Here's the Wikipedia article on waterspouts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterspout) that goes into accurate detail on the phenomena.

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icanhazkarma17@reddit

Right, thanks. Waterspout ≠ tornado over water (tornadic waterspout). Some of the reporting uses the term waterspout. I would think that most sailing ships are not designed to take a direct hit from a powerful tornado where windspeeds can be > than 200 mph. Yikes.

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windsostrange@reddit

Again, to be clear, there are _two types of waterspout_, and Google provided you with misleading search results. The reporting is generally fine here. Being clear on how this term is used by sailors worldwide, even if it's confusing, is a safety issue.

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ovideos@reddit

Sorry, how does one know which kind of waterspout one is looking at when one sees one?

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celery48@reddit

Because one happens in calm weather and the other happens near thunderstorms.

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Young-Independence@reddit

I think the tornado type would have taken out the boat moored close to it as well.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Very interesting read. Thanks a lot. Yes I guess there lies a lot of my confusion.

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

Generally. And up to 150 if you're unlucky. One assumes this was not a 50mph wind which is 43kt, because almost any seaworthy vessel can handle that. I've been out in 43kt in much less capable vessels.

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seamus_mc@reddit

If it layed over like witnesses said and they weren’t prepared like huge doors or hatches open it could flood very abruptly

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goodmammajamma@reddit

generally... not always

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BornDetective853@reddit

You can't just rip a mast out by the root like a tooth, as the exposed structure is far weaker than than that enclosed section. It would be like losing an eyelid by pulling an eyelash.

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

Take a look at this video of the M5 having its mast pulled. https://youtu.be/QdF0sVe0AsM?si=Kwcu4TxVl7Mdbltx They are a similar size and weight - 43 tons. I’d agree that a normal mast can’t be ripped out of a yacht but this thing is immense. What if the windage sheer force generated on bare poles was ridiculous in a 150mph gust? Something must have caused a hull breach. Any other ideas?

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BornDetective853@reddit

[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13762191/Hunt-missing-six-passengers-board-doomed-30m-superyacht-Divers-vow-not-giving-amid-fears-storm-hamper-search-rescuers-try-open-passages-cabins.html](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13762191/Hunt-missing-six-passengers-board-doomed-30m-superyacht-Divers-vow-not-giving-amid-fears-storm-hamper-search-rescuers-try-open-passages-cabins.html) >45t on a mast, woah, it would certainly do some damage. I was watching this video, which shows all the mast lights go out 30s>, but it appears the one emergency light at the top of the mast remaining, which would be consistent with battery backup. (At least that is how it looks to me, it's poor quality video.) Which would indicate power failure. The motor on these is a saildrive, which if snagged around the anchor, stray marker buoy line, lobster pot etc, could rip the thing off and flood the hull and cut power. All of which is pure speculation, but it wouldn't be the first time.

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BornDetective853@reddit

[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/newzealand/video-3256195/Video-Moment-tornado-NZ-Westhaven-Marina-blows-catamaran.html](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/newzealand/video-3256195/Video-Moment-tornado-NZ-Westhaven-Marina-blows-catamaran.html) This video shows what happens to a similar sized vessel when a tornado hits, pretty much laying it flat. [https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30003346/bayesian-superyacht-captain-james-cutfield/](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30003346/bayesian-superyacht-captain-james-cutfield/) Now reporting the keel was retracted and the ship would not self-right if on its side, when keel is up. If it heeled over like in the first video, then stuck on its side, it would take on water very quickly. Supposedly it is common to anchor with retracting keels up overnight, this is due to the keel being noisy and knocking when in the down position.

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Young-Independence@reddit

I notified that.

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RedHal@reddit

So, the light at the top of the mast is called the anchor light. It's an all-around white light which must be lit when at anchor on all sufficiently large vessels (over 7 metres), and given that the Bayesian was over 50 metres there would also have been another all-around white light displayed lower down near the stern (COLREG 30). These are on a different circuit from the deck lighting and spar lights you initially see, so its entirely plausible that the deck lighting went out while the mandatory lights stayed lit.

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kabeziller@reddit

Yes, also the fact there was another large yacht adjacent to it (the Sir Robert BP?) that survived the conditions relatively unscathed suggests there must have been a catastrophic hull failure of sorts vs a knockdown. The captain of the Sir Robert BP was being interviewed and said they had to start their engines to adjust the ship to keep it at anchor and to avoid the Bayesian but that the next time they looked when the storm was over the Bayesian had simply gone. So whatever happened, happened very quickly indeed.

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goodmammajamma@reddit

A waterspout will be very very localized and it's very plausible that it could hit one without hitting another right next to it.

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Young-Independence@reddit

I dunno the other boat was moored so close they took action to ensure no issue. So I’m not convinced a waterspout wouldn’t have affected that boat too. I’d think it’s more to do with the Bayesian design and action of the captain/crew. The captain said he didn’t see it coming. A waterspout maybe not but he must have seen a storm coming, the captain of the other boat did, and he should have got the passengers up.

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goodmammajamma@reddit

> The captain said he didn’t see it coming. A waterspout maybe not yes

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BornDetective853@reddit

To consider, Bayesian was running a saildrive motor? Divers should be able to rule in or out pretty quick on that as a failure though.

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kenlbear@reddit

No one anchors in 50 meter depths.

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romanohere@reddit

Ok but how would 15 survive that

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

Jump ship. Waterspout runs right by.

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seamus_mc@reddit

Or big open hatches and bulkheads like maybe a toy garage?

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romanohere@reddit

Also possible

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

This sounds a very credible analysis

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eoffif44@reddit

> This has me wondering if that massive mast was to blame. It has a huge cross section and under freak storm conditions could be subject to immense forces. Supposedly the largest aluminumn mast of any sailboat in the world, which suggests the materials engineering was at the edge of practicality. You might be on to sometrhing. But Sir Robert crew says it disappeared suddenly - i.e. it went down fast - I'm not sure how a mast failure alone could lead to that.

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

It could only happen if the mast failure caused a hull failure. That’s the only way I can think of that explains the situation. Huge sheer forces on the mast tore the hull apart. Anyhow they will find the boat. We’ll find out what really happened.

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eoffif44@reddit

Yeah but masts can't do that. It would have to be a stunning engineering flaw for a mast, which is under stress as a mater of basic function, to be able to tear a hole in the hull. I'm not an expert on boat building but this can't be a possibility, can it? Putting improbabilities, though, these mega yachts have a lot of exotic engineering, and critical failure of one or more components might be an explanation. If it had a retracting centre board maybe there was a flaw in the design that lead to a materials failure in the event of extreme mast movement?

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Gr8tshag@reddit

As you say, you’re not an expert.

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romanohere@reddit

Possible is possible

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

I wouldn’t want to take bets on what the effects of a 75 METER mast breaking off a boat would do. No doubt we will find out but a catastrophic engineering design failure seems like the only thing which fits the data we have available to us.

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Weak_Promotion5165@reddit

As is the way of these things I saw a report early on of a local saying he saw the Bayesian’s mast “snap” when the weather hit it. The female survivor said that the “ship tilted and then suddenly water rushed in”

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BornDetective853@reddit

A mast under sail will carry far more load than any storm can inflict on a naked ali pole. I think the rescue boat has already confirmed the structure is still intact,

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Throwawaybaby09876@reddit

The yacht had a retractable keel. 4M when up, 10M when down. Under normal circumstances, keel up when not under sail should have been fine. Probably desirable as it’s safer from obstruction and less work for the engines.

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Bungsworld@reddit

I worked on her sistership who's mast was 60m. Bayesian's is 15m taller on the same hull.

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

That’s an interesting data point. The forces should be proportionate to the size of the sail so a 25% taller mast might have 1.5x the forces under play. On bare poles maybe a bit less but sheer forces are complicated and I’m not an engineer. On a side note I’ve been up 60’ masts and it felt like a long way. 75 meters is insane.

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Canuhandleit@reddit

It could also be something as common as a turnbuckle failure, or a swage failing. Even though it's an enormous boat, it's still subject to regular problems.

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That-Makes-Sense@reddit

Newbie here. How about the boom having too much slack, swinging hard enough to break loose and taking out shrouds?

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

I don’t think so. Those could cause a knockdown but that doesn’t capsize or sink a boat if that size in the amount of time described.

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That-Makes-Sense@reddit

Ok. I figured the shrouds breaking and then the mast falling down through the hull would sink the boat pretty fast.

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thebemusedmuse@reddit

Normally when the shrouds break the mast will just break away and the hull will remain intact. But it seems like something unusual happened here so who knows. Hopefully we will find out so other large yachts can learn from this catastrophe.

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babydavissaves@reddit

https://youtu.be/8Yau9A7XDHs?si=na6oaLgNVtQdk7XI

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theConsultantCount@reddit

72M is wild

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Redfish680@reddit

From The Guardian: Reports in local media said that a waterspout had hit the vessel. A waterspout, which roughly resembles a mini-tornado, is a column that descends from a cloud to form a rotating mixture of wind and water over a body of water. Some fishers reported spotting a small tornado off the coast at about 3.55am. Shortly after, they witnessed a distress flare allegedly launched from the vessel. The fishers approached but recounted seeing only “scattered remains of the sailboat floating in the water”.

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lokeypod@reddit

Not sure about the med, but on the Great Lakes waterspouts are fairly harmless. I’ve sailed through them

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celery48@reddit

Different type of waterspout.

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Ready_Register1689@reddit

Saw one off the coast of Tuscany once. They are terrifying. Would be incredibly bad luck if they were hit by one

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ClosetLadyGhost@reddit

Iv sailed through a waterspout and a full night squall. Of course I was in a boat designed to sail through such shit weather(I. So much as you can design a boat nowadays)but there were definitely moments where the boat would be doing some acrobatics where if we as crew were not clipped in or if it was any other boat I could definitely understand sinking. It was a 72footer as well. The sound of the sails flogging in 30+knot winds while at a 50° angle in pitch black is something I won't forget .

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Cambren1@reddit

That is my feeling as well, people are designing yachts to mimic ocean racers instead of blue water heavy cruisers. I know several people who have sailed through waterspouts, not fun, but survivable in the right boat.

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RedHal@reddit

I've done it in a GP14 on Carlingford Lough, though admittedly that was a Carlingford Kettle, not a true waterspout.

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ClosetLadyGhost@reddit

I was in a ocean racer lol

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Full_Employee6731@reddit

I wouldn't wish it on myself but a similar scenario is the most fun I've ever had. Just absolutely exhilarating.

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makanimike@reddit

First time I was the chief honcho skipper on a chartered yacht with some friends on a trip in Dalmatia we came across a couple of waterspouts. On the very first day of the trip, too. Sure is something to have to dodge waterspouts as well when you are already stressed about being the one responsible for everything the first time....

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Was it the captain’s first time in such a role?

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makanimike@reddit

On the Bayesian? Surely not. But it happened at 4am while on anchor in the bay.

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Yep I was questioning the earlier poster - I understood it was at that time, and captain was on the job..

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makanimike@reddit

Alright. Then you need to learn how to reply to a post that you intend to actually respond to.

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Key-Term-1067@reddit

Huh? The post I replied to referenced unprepared captain/crew. I think I’ve used suitable reading comprehension skills on that. Replied accordingly. Do you have anger issues, or are you just generally a stirrer and rude, negative person?

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makanimike@reddit

https://www.reddit.com/user/makanimike/comments/1exkuvm/key_terms_comprehension_skills/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

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SignedTheMonolith@reddit

Also time of day. In south Texas water spouts are common, and to my knowledge never hit a boat. During the day you can see them develop and dissipate in a span of 15-45 minutes depending on the size. At night, I imagine sailing into one is very difficult to notice. Best advice is try not to be where the red dots on the radar develop.

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Westywas@reddit

Two of the deadliest tornadoes in history hit Sicily in 1851 and killed over 500 people.

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Potential-Crab-5065@reddit

doesnt roughly resemble. is a tornado thats throwing water and boat around instead of dirt and house

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wkavinsky@reddit

Jesus the comments. Do none of you remember the microburst that ruined all those boats in Ibiza just a few days ago? They were also anchored.

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InTheNameOfScheddi@reddit

Right, it still sank off the coast. A boat that size shouldn't capsize from a storm like that. Seems like a design flaw.

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homer_lives@reddit

From the bbc: "Witnesses told the Italian news agency Ansa that the force of the storm caused the ship's 72m (236ft) aluminium mast to snap in half and the boat became unbalanced." Sounds like a catastrophic failure. Hopefully, the investigation can find out why.

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gmatocha@reddit

Assuming the Bayesian had something of a conventional keel, the mast snapping would make the boat more stable, not less.

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Back2thehold@reddit

Retractable keel per BBC. [BBC Keel](https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg343vjwklo.amp)

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gmatocha@reddit

Initial unconfirmed report from divers said partially lowered. Can't wait for final report.

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Back2thehold@reddit

Damn. That would alter the CG. A heavy list from wind on the giant “bare poles” and high freeboard due to her size could have dropped her, but even then the’d need the doors open or a hull breach to sink so fast. Totally speculating. I am interested to hear what the captain says. Also curious how they got a life raft launched as well, unless it was automatic and on the rail. Lots to learn from this, just in case I become a billionaire. RIP

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gmatocha@reddit

Yeah - lots of unconfirmed speculation that hatches were left open due to warm conditions. If the storm wasn't forecast - or at least unexpectedly strong, as seems likely, then they might not have had time to batten down. A knock down \*might\* then flood enough to sink...maybe. Captain is still alive and reportedly underwent hours of questioning. That plus the divers final report will answer a lot of questions. I've also seen a couple of videos on youtube that this and similar swing-keel boats often don't lower the keel while anchored because it makes banging noises which bothers guests. The fact that the keel was partially down might indicate it was indeed lowered for stability during the storm. That said, even if fully down, I doubt that would prevent a knock-down if indeed hit directly by a tornado.

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Back2thehold@reddit

I had a swing. It made a ton of freaking noise. Granted my boat was 26’ but same concept.

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ChazR@reddit

The investigation \*WILL\* find the sequence of events. the [UK MAIB](https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/marine-accident-investigation-branch) will be involved and they will want to know why a British vessel carrying passengers sank in seconds. Look at the effort they put in on the MV Derbyshire which sank in deep ocean waters. We are going to find out how this happened.

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Blue_foot@reddit

I could image the mast snapping and a piece puncturing the hull on the way down.

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ovideos@reddit

I looked at [this video.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6N9jqwac_40) Crazy! But how many boats were lost/capsized/sunk? From the reports I saw, it looks like no one sank or died. I think people are reacting to the swiftness of the Bayesian's sinking. It's uncharacteristic for a monohull boat, even in extreme weather. Though I wouldn't pretend to understand the dynamics/handling of a boat of that size!

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LowTBigD@reddit

Your video literally says dozens sunk. So….

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ovideos@reddit

Sorry, I meant I didn't think any sailing boats were sunk by the wind and waves. We clearly see boats smashed against the rocks. The articles are not very clear, but my impression is the boats were thrashed against the rocks or tossed in the surf – not that any boats literally sank in the ocean. Though it isn't clear, that is for sure. another article: "In addition, the force of the wind and the violent waves have tossed around a dozen sailing boats until they ran aground on the rocks."

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FalseRegister@reddit

That was a severe storm

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zoinkability@reddit

There are reports of a tornado. Tornadoes are extremely serious

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

yeah but 98% that was just a term thrown in by an incompetent journalist, don't take it for granted. (strictly speaking if you look at the satellite images in infrared you will see that tornado is not the right term).

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windsostrange@reddit

https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/bulletinset/3/html >CARBONARA. >West 4 or 5, at times 6 in south, veering Northwesterly in evening, >decreasing 3 or 4 at end. Severe gusts in thunderstorms. >Slight or moderate. >Poor visibility in rain and thunderstorms. This sub is intellectually lazy about something that is a core aspect of sailing and safety on the water. And I say that as a very poor sailor.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Well not sure why I'm being downvoted, go guess. I am well aware of the current weather over here and "Severe gusts in thunderstorms" is very accurate, but in my book calling that a "tornado" is clueless.

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ovideos@reddit

I feel like it's not clear what happened for sure, but that "severe gusts" is a forecast, not a description of what happened. It also notes: "BE AWARE: WIND GUSTS CAN BE 40 PERCENT STRONGER THAN THOSE GIVEN HERE AND MAX WAVE HEIGHT UP TO TWICE THAN SIGNIFICANT"

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woodworkingguy1@reddit

A water spout forms from the ground up, like a dust devil and does not need sever weather. If this was some nasty weather then it may very well have been a tornado that touched down over water.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

There was a cold front passing by but no tornado formation in the satellite images as far as I can judge.

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zoinkability@reddit

What time resolution do your satellite images have? Tornados can form, touch down, and then dissipate in a matter of minutes. Just because you have an image from around the time of the event doesn't tell us with any certainty what conditions the boat experienced.

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goodmammajamma@reddit

yeah so was this

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savethefuckinday@reddit

Reports of the mast coming down and then capsize. But for that to happen it must have lost its keel.. it went down very fast

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Mikey4021@reddit

Also some of these Pirinis have hydralic keels that you deploy for sailing and raise when the sails are not in use.

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BornDetective853@reddit

You may retract a keel to save drag when under motor power, but you certainly don't retract the keel when anchored half a mile off the coast, without sail, while looking to get a good nights sleep.

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Mikey4021@reddit

Depends on onboard SOPs, sometimes.its only used whilst using the sails. But yes, im not claiming otherwise.

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BornDetective853@reddit

[https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30003346/bayesian-superyacht-captain-james-cutfield/](https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/30003346/bayesian-superyacht-captain-james-cutfield/) Now reporting the keel was retracted and the ship would not self-right if on its side, when keel is up.

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Mikey4021@reddit

No one is claiming otherwise.

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Dwight_scoot@reddit

The keel is not for stability though. They are centreboards rather then keels

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Mikey4021@reddit

I can assure you at this scale they very much do affect the stability of the boat significantly. Its not like a dingy and a little bit of fibreglass. Their stability curves are affected significantly depending on which condition they are in. Your right the terminology is a bit shoddy but they are refered to as "centre keels" and I believe the context of the post I replyed to makes it clear about what i was trying to inform about. There is really nothing to be gained with pedantics.

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Dwight_scoot@reddit

For sure. But it’s not the main start of the stability. The purpose of the board is stop the boat from doing sideways not to add to the stability. Without seeing the stability book for this particular boat I don’t know for sure. But I know the one for a sister ship and does not make a huge difference to RM if the boat is in or out.

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wychimp@reddit

WUT

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Dwight_scoot@reddit

Where did you hear that?

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MackinRAK@reddit

Go to yachting magazine's gushy piece on sister S/Y Fidelis (of then S/Y Salute), page down a lot through discussion of the interior until you see the word Draft near the end. 13' up and 31'11" down. I'm guessing the keel goes up to 13' and down to 31" using hydraulics. Unless nature intervenes. Then we use words like 'tragic'. https://www.yachtingmagazine.com/art-motion-perini-navi-56m/

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Dwight_scoot@reddit

The dagger board or center board goes up and down. The keel does not. Well not on perinis.

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MackinRAK@reddit

Genuine question here, because reviews refer to a lifting keel, and Perini notes draught 'keel up and keel down' but do they really mean dagger or center board up/down? But the real question is whether something to do with this keel, or its position, on its own or combined with a 75m aluminium mast, affected seaworthiness.

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Dwight_scoot@reddit

The RM is provided by the fixed keel (I believe.) I have never seen this particular one out of the water, but I have seen the sister ship. The keel provides the RM and the dagger board or centre board stops it from going sideways while sailing. While some large yachts (M5 for instance) do have lifting keels, most of them have the main stability built into the hull.

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NetCaptain@reddit

A 75m high mast coming down may rip open the hull causing lots of sudden water ingress

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gristagrophix@reddit

I don't know about the Bayesian (formerly Salute) herself, but I am aware of at least one sloop of this size being unable to get insurance to cross the Atlantic because of the ridiculous length of the mast. It seems bizarre to me that they build sloop rigs on yachts longer than 20-25 metres.

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MackinRAK@reddit

Apparently the sloop rig on Salute permitted an additional recreational area for guests known as 'the Circus', literally a selling point.

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Tangata_Tunguska@reddit

Bit of a phallic symbol innit

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eoffif44@reddit

That's the idea I had - but how is the keel fixed to boats of this size? I can't imagine it's just a few keel bolts holding it together, like a GRP pleasure yacht. On an aluminum boat of this size, wouldn't everything be welded?

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travelswithjay@reddit

Pains me to read a lot of these comments. I'm from the yachting community and been at sea for 10 years now. I know this vessel and have come across them while cruising around the Mediterranean. A lot of what the media is saying is all speculation. Perini Navis (the shipyard that built this vessel) are well known for building some hardcore sailyachts that are more than capable of sailing around the world in the some of the roughest conditions. Along with an extremely competent and well known crew I can guarantee there is no negligence from their part. For those saying "the mast breaking caused the capsizing" no.......... Definitely not. Actually it'll make it more stable. However the retractable keel may have been up which reduces the GM of the vessel (technically speaking) or the centre of gravity changes, which is terms would be less stable. Any marine surveyor will tell you the same thing. And the other comments about aluminium being a problem, no it's not. Aluminium has a higher strength to weight ratio than steel. Lots of vessels are being built in aluminium. I should know, I work on one built fully from aluminium. The vessel was at anchor. The past track seems completely normal. The weather was NOT forecast. We monitor the weather 10 times a day to make sure our guests stay safe, I'm sure the crew on Bayesian did the same. We've been having very odd weather lately. The MAIB are involved and the captain made it off so we'll hear report from viable and reliable sources soon. We lost a crew member from our community which is extremely sad, our industry has come together very closely during this time and it's heart warming to see. Rather wait for an official report from the MAIB and master of the vessel before making major assumptions.. Not a rant, just having my 2 cents.

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Young-Independence@reddit

Simply not true that the weather wasn’t forecast.

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travelswithjay@reddit

The waterspouts/tornados are not possible to forecast with certainty. It's all dependent on seawater temperature, atmospheric pressure etc. You can't predict the path either. If you're referring to some breeze and rain, yes sure, but it's not unusual to anchor and wait out a bit of rain and wind.

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Young-Independence@reddit

The storm was forecast nonetheless so all the passengers should have been awake and in life jackets. If that had happened they would have had a good chance of getting everyone off.

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travelswithjay@reddit

I'm assuming you're referring to the article written by the Italian weather expert Luca Mercalli. He said the same thing. Look you're entitled to your opinion and I respect that, however that comment and his article shows a lack of understanding of the maritime industry and the yachting industry. I'll cease conversations now. Have a good day and let's wait for the report and keep those lost at sea in our thoughts.

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Young-Independence@reddit

Not referring to anything. Of course waterspouts can’t be predicted but they’re relatively common in the med. All the more reason to adhere to safety protocols. The owner and guests should not have been in their cabins in a storm, that’s just basic.

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travelswithjay@reddit

May I ask if you work in the yachting industry? I'm asking because I do, and have been for 10 years now, and no it's not normal for guests to come out of cabins during storms, especially when at anchor, the same applies to cruise ships. The forecast was not for a category 5 hurricane, it was a yellow warning which is nothing unusual in the Mediterranean. It's just extremely unfortunate that the waterspout happened to hit them. I encourage you to go on YouTube and watch this video (the gent is from the yachting industry) https://youtu.be/yF5UduROOFY?si=lERkGEF4pHzW6Lsu It really sheds some light on how these water spouts can cause damage and since we've agreed they're completely unpredictable I think we can both agree it was a freak accident and just very unfortunate that people lost their lives. However we must wait for the MAIB report to shed some light on this incident in the next few months

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Young-Independence@reddit

I don’t now but I have. I worked in the luxury market. Generally for a storm we’d be in a marina as guests get scared and seasick in open sea, even if near the coast. Charters were stricter than when the owner’s on board with family/friends - in which case it would be somewhat up to the owner, but generally they didn’t want to scare their guests or make them seasick either. In a storm like that we’d have woken everyone up. Never been in a cruise ship, but those fuckers are massive, totally different.

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travelswithjay@reddit

I won't assume what size vessels you've worked on, but generally on a vessel 50m + thats extremely seaworthy (as Bayesian was) dealing with some bad weather isn't a huge concern as long as crew are well trained on safety at sea, there's no need to wake guests up, however I think the sinking may have been attributed to the waterspout/tornado if you watched that video which is why I refer to this as possibly a freak accident, it happened in a meer few seconds which was unfortunately unpredictable. However let's wait for this MAIB report and hopefully no one places any blame on anyone before we know all the facts, until then let's put our thoughts towards the families struggling right now. Thanks for the good convo, always good to hear opposing views and opinions 👌

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Young-Independence@reddit

Absolutely nothing to do with how seaworthy they were - you’d expect them to be - merely the comfort of the guests. Billionaires don’t tend to be intrepid and their friends idea of a good holiday is not seasickness. In terms of safety I cannot understand the owner and his daughter left to die in their cabins unless water ingress prevented crew from being able to reach them.

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ImA-Mermaid@reddit

I’m sorry but why aren’t people talking about foul play? His codefendant was just killed as well! Come on.

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travelswithjay@reddit

On a vessel like that? Not a chance. People who don't work in our industry have absolutely no idea how professionally run and stringent the rules in the industry are.

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Axe_Care_By_Eugene@reddit

Well said mate - I am a former member of the yachting community and I am truly saddened by the sinking of this beautiful vessel and the tragic loss of life.

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ApprehensiveSea4747@reddit

Thanks for this perspective.

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Seekertwentyfifty@reddit

When speculating about how/why several people were trapped and didn’t make it out. It may be important to note that such a rapid ingress of water may have been the problem for those who didn’t survive. Those below could’ve easily been pinned or otherwise impeded by such a large volume of water entering the hull. Someone who made it to an open hatchway was likely overwhelmed by the incoming pressure. Multiple unlikely occurrences came together to cause this disaster. Very sad. I hope there will be some lessons we can all learn to minimize the likelihood of this happening again. My prayers to the victims and their families as well as the survivors.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Yes not only the ingress of water, but as the divers are seeing all passage ways blocked by "furniture" debris perhaps that blocked the way out for the poor victims too. RIP

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

They are recovering bodies now, two found so far, according to Italian news websites. Very sad. There was little hope, but until you have certainty, ther is at least a little bit of hope. RIP.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

seems they have found five now, only one is still missing :(

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Mike Lynch has been identified, only his daughter is still missing.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

The fact this person and his codefendant were both killed in accident only days after their acquittal is mind boggling.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Absolutely, but there were rumors he might have wanted to fake his own death, I guess such rumors have now been laid to rest. The CEO of the company that owns the Perini shipyard thinks the sinking was [due to human erro](https://www.today.it/cronaca/naufragio-bayesian-cause.html)r.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Interesting. The guy does not mince words and lays the blame on the crew mishandling the situation. Unsurprising due to his interest in depicting his boats as super safe. If what he says is true though I would agree with him about mishandling from the crew.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Initial suspicion fell on the construction of the ship, so he has to defend his company against accusations as this directly threatens his business. And mincing words is generally not done in Italy.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Yes the chances were slim but facing reality is sadder. RIP

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savethefuckinday@reddit

Also not easy to get out if its listing 90 degrees

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Kind-Humor-5420@reddit

Yeah your door way is now on your ceiling

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gg562ggud485@reddit

Are there any lesson to draw from that tragedy?

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Young-Independence@reddit

Make sure you have someone sensible on anchor watch.

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gmatocha@reddit

Yachting involves more risk than people realize?

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lillibetmontecito@reddit

Travel with your nose glued to weather network app?

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PizzaMan22554@reddit

Life is short

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Anstigmat@reddit

The usual lesson is to ignore Reddit experts on what they should have done in that situation.

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TrojanThunder@reddit

Too soon on many levels

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Guess we'll have to wait for the dust of emotion and incomplete information to settle before we can distill some wisdom :(

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mitdai@reddit

An interview with the CEO of the company The Italian Sea Group which owns the assets of Perini Navi which built the boat said it is one of the safest boats in the world [https://tg24.sky.it/cronaca/2024/08/22/bayesian-costruttore-intervista](https://tg24.sky.it/cronaca/2024/08/22/bayesian-costruttore-intervista) "Everything that was done reveals a very long sum of errors. The people were not supposed to be in the cabins, the boat was not supposed to be at anchor. And then why didn't the crew know about the incoming disturbance? The passengers reported something absurd, namely that the storm arrived unexpectedly, suddenly. It is not true. It was all predictable. I have the weather maps here in front of me". Thus, in an interview with Corriere della Sera, Giovanni Costantino, founder and CEO of The Italian Sea Group, the company listed on the stock exchange that owns the assets of Perini Navi of Viareggio which built the Bayesian in 2008. Costantino doesn't want to see that sailing jewel that he defines as "one of the safest boats in the world" under accusation" I'm interested in knowing what should you do if you are caught in a storm and are onboard. What are the procedures? Do you anchor?

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Young-Independence@reddit

Just seen this - yes exactly. It’s heinous that the owner, his daughter and others were in cabins. If they had just been all up and in life jackets whatever happened to the boat they would likely have been saved.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Of course a lot changes depending on the situation. They were at anchor near the coast, not sailing. If the anchor remained positioned (sorry don't know the english terms) the boat would have mostly presented its bow to the wind (even though is a waterspout that can be false) but mostly you would have wanted to rushto close any possible hatch, door etc to avoid water/wind ingress (the account of some windows "exploding" makes me think of strong wind entering some large opening and blowing out the windows). This provided you had someone alert monitoring the weather.

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Young-Independence@reddit

I agree that this will likely to crew failure contributing. Whichever way you look at it - the boat shouldn’t have capsized. If the mast broke it should be fine, if it rolled on its side it shouldn’t sink. The fact that the crew did not have the passengers awake and in life jackets suggests they weren’t prepared for a storm, which was actually forecast. Ok you can’t predict a waterspout but they’re not that uncommon. Privately owned superyacht tend to be more relaxed than charters.

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ApprehensiveSea4747@reddit

Here is a hypothesis I haven’t seen in comments: lightening strike. Many sailboats have lightening rods atop the mast with grounding wires that lead down to a large metal plate in the hull. A direct strike will vaporize the nav/coms equipment at the top of the mast, but the energy is directed away from other parts of the boat (steel port hole frames, water & gas tanks, etc) and distributed onto the plate where, hopefully, the energy is diffused and transfers into the water. A really energetic lightning strike can cause more damage, though. Energy is looking for the shortest path to ground, and if the lightening rod system is insufficient (a grounding cable fries), energy can leap to a head which can blow a hole in the hull. In a worst case, the lightening grounding plate can just blast out of the hull. Obviously that is instantaneously catastrophic. I have experience with this kind of grounding system in a Morgan (fiberglass hull). I’m unsure how this works with an aluminum hull. I’m curious about how this yacht’s electrical grounding system.

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Young-Independence@reddit

Yes I agree. I think it may have been hit by lightening. I’ve seen waterspouts (tho never been in one) and I think it would also have hit the nearest boats. Whereas a lightning strike could affect one alone. It would explain the damage. I guess we’ll find out eventually.

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ApprehensiveSea4747@reddit

Several have commented on the mast. Many yachts survive demasting in storms. Yachts have been rolled, where the mast bends around the hull. That’s dangerous because the broken mast bangs on the hull and can compromise it, but sailors have been rolled and hustle on deck to unbolt the mast and get it off the hull. And then they rig a way to catch the wind with equipment remaining and live to tell the tale. No doubt this mast was self furling and hence offered a lot of surface area to the wind. A knockdown doesn’t usually cause sinking. Something else has to go wrong. I guess most maritime disasters are the result of several compounding factors.

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Equivalent_Drag7128@reddit

It was a waterspout. As a Superyacht crew and someone who has on multiple perinis I can say that these freak weather events in the Med are terrifying. The lifeboat was deployed and 11 people managed to get in. Do not disparage the crew, or the build, or anything pertaining to personal knowledge you do not have. This was a terrifying situation for all involved and it's lucky more lived weren't lost.

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Young-Independence@reddit

I respect this but I’ve been on superyachts and the standard protocol for storms is to avoid open water, get into a marina, if not ensure the guests are awake and have life jackets on. A waterspout can’t be predicted, but the storm was expected.

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babydavissaves@reddit

How could something sink so fast? Found this... https://youtu.be/8Yau9A7XDHs?si=na6oaLgNVtQdk7XI

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Frightening! But I guess boats built for cruise should be a lot sturdier and not compromise all towards speed.

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babydavissaves@reddit

You're right, bc it's reported the hull is in tact, and the boat (and mast) is lying on its side. Yikes.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Italian newspaper article, about halfway down the page, there is a small b/w video that supposedly shows the sinking: [Cosa sappiamo del veliero affondato: cosa è successo a Porticello? L'albero non si è spezzato e lo scafo è integro | Corriere.it](https://www.corriere.it/cronache/24_agosto_20/veliero-affondato-cosa-e-successo-f5cd7b1d-687c-46c1-b37c-05fdd3e63xlk.shtml) The article says that the mast very probably didn't break. A British team from the Marine Accident Investigation Branch is on the way, the UK ambassador says in an interview.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

The video is terrifying :(

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TheRockFriend@reddit

Ok question here, I have a trip planned to go there in like 3 weeks on a chartered sail boat. My uncle had a sailboat when I was a kid and I thought it would be an interesting trip, but have never really been sailing as an adult. Nothing nearly as fancy as this boat but a decent sized sail boat that holds like 25 people. We are going around the aeolian islands. This incident has me super spooked. Is this a freak accident sort of thing?

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PPvsFC_@reddit

Beyond a freak accident. Crazy weather paired with a sailboat that was pushing the limits of having an aluminum mast. Literally the tallest on Earth.

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DankeBernanke@reddit

Freak accident, I just sailed a week around the Aeolian Islands and had a blast. A good skipper will do appropriate planning and keep you safe. Let me know if you have any questions! You’ll have a blast

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ovideos@reddit

I'll take your place if you like! :) Total freak accident. You'll be fine.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

Yes

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6etyvcgjyy@reddit

Flag state is UK. So this is a fully reportable and fully accountable incident. There will be a full investigation and report. It may take 2 years.

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ChazR@reddit

And they'll probably raise the wreck. The MAIB does not mess around.

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alliekendall9@reddit

How on earth could they possibly raise the wreck?

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ChazR@reddit

A combination of airbags and lifting strops. It's not very deep, and although it's 56m log, that's not huge by modern salvage standards. This one is weird enough that we'll want a full understanding of the full chain of events. Vessels this size should not be sunk by weather.

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permalink_child@reddit

I have heard too of lightning hitting a mast and blowing a hole in the boat bottom as lightning travels down the mast. Should have lightning arrestors but who knows if sufficient, working.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

This would have surely already been reported?

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permalink_child@reddit

Reported by who exactly? If lightning strike of such magnitude, radio communications could be disabled as well as she sinks.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

The captain of the boat 200 yards away would have surely noticed a massive lightning strike on the Bayesian. Lightning strikes are hard to miss

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permalink_child@reddit

Well sure. But he was busy fighting for his ships life. Clearly not 100% focused on Bayesian situation.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

Have you ever been near a lightning strike? It's impossible to miss.

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permalink_child@reddit

Sure. Assuming you are looking in that direction and not texting on Reddit

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

It's extremely loud, Reddit-lover

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permalink_child@reddit

Sure. Just because loud does not mean it struck the mast. That requires a visual.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

Even someone like you would look up from the Reddit app on your phone. You obviously haven't been around lightning much. Troll on , silver bird!

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Agitated_Ocelot949@reddit

One of the survivors said she survived because her family was on the deck when it happened. But it happened at 4am. Why would you be on the deck of a boat at 4am with a 1-year-old? Article was in Dailymail, I’ll see if I can find a link

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Coca_lite@reddit

Baby might have woken and crying, mum went outside in fresh air to soothe baby?

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Ronotrow2@reddit

she went up to see what was going on as the storm was violent

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lacetullesatinohmy@reddit

Actually super plausible to me, as a mom of toddlers. The storm almost certainly woke the child, and in hopes of not having the crying bother other passengers, parents took her outside (and maybe also hoping that having a visual would make the noise less scary for her).

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Agitated_Ocelot949@reddit

That’s a good point, I hadn’t thought of that. One other woman said she felt the boat tilt and went onto the deck right away, which was the only thing that saved her life. The article also mentioned it was a self-inflating life raft that the survivors got onto that saved their lives.

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Axe_Care_By_Eugene@reddit

The self inflating life raft can be triggered to inflate when the parent boat sinks or the life raft is under a certain depth of water - which in turn triggers a pressure switch which in turn inflates the life raft

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

These days the weather is very hot so maybe, just speculating, she wanted some cooler air? The local fisherman running for help says he saw a red flare at 3:15 AM to be exact.

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Seamus-McSeamus@reddit

What are the odds of that?!?

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gmatocha@reddit

Even weirder - what are the odds that his co-defendant from the HP fraud trial (a trial that was filed in 2018, but the claim of fraud pre-dates that by four years) - would die in an unrelated incident, in another country, only \~36 hours prior? So Lynch and Chamberlain are acquitted from a multi billion dollar fraud trial that had dragged on for *twelve years* - and they both die on the same weekend two months after being acquitted. Put on your aluminum hat!

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lillibetmontecito@reddit

I see a Netflix movie in 3, 2, 1......

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Infinite_Research_52@reddit

Unfortunately, based on prior events, 100%. My sympathies.

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Seamus-McSeamus@reddit

Perhaps we could compute it with Bayesian inference.

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borse2008@reddit

Why can't the vessel be tried to be lifted out ?

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

Specialized vessels and equipment will have to travel there to raise her. The position and condition of the boat will have to be examined thoroughly before one can decide how to raise her (and what will have to be done underwater first to ensure the salvage operation goes smoothly). Larger vessels have been raised. e.g. the Costa Concordia. It took over two years until she could be floated, though. Do you mean why can't the boat be lifted out to free potential survivors? This boat is 56 meters long. It's not like a sunk car, you can't just fasten a truck to it and pull it out. Also, the location is several hundred meters offshore.

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Axe_Care_By_Eugene@reddit

It will be raised when they organize the salvage operation - but the vessels required for such a massive operation will take time to travel there.

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Low-Math4158@reddit

Did they not drop the sails or something? They were far from shore. What possessed them to go sail8ng with an infant in bad weather? The daily fail article is not a credible source. I wouldn't be taking their word for anything.

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throwaway23er56uz@reddit

The boat used in-mast furling, i.e. the sail is rolled up inside the mast, which is why the mast is so massive. A common technology nowadays. They were at anchor off the coast, everybody was asleep, radar was off, nobody on anchor watch. Possibly dragging anchor, possibly the keel was up (these boats have a retractable keel to sail in shallow waters). The investigation will show what happened and what the factors were that caused this.

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Low-Math4158@reddit

Thanks for explaining.

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Tal_Farlow_@reddit

They were anchored and it happened at 5am. Tornado apparently

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Low-Math4158@reddit

That mast is a crazy size. The keel would need to have been humongous. That must have been some wind. More than likely a cycline and someone reported it wrong.

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RBR927@reddit

I don’t think you understand what a cyclone is mate…

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Low-Math4158@reddit

I live on the west coast of Ireland. Cyclones hit Italy every few years, but the frequency of them has increased over the past decade. It was a cyclone, ye slabber. https://www.ilmessaggero.it/AMP/en/mediterranean_cyclone_to_hit_italy_with_severe_storms_and_extreme_weather-8299379.html&ved=2ahUKEwjRsZyGoIGIAxUfYEEAHbpnC4EQyM8BKAB6BAgGEAI&usg=AOvVaw3jwKnFbej-wr-z86AgQBwA

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RBR927@reddit

That article is from almost a year ago you muppet.

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Low-Math4158@reddit

Haha. My bad. You're absolutely right. Here's the current storm. Silly me. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ilmessaggero.it/AMP/en/mediterranean_cyclone_to_hit_italy_with_severe_storms_and_extreme_weather-8299379.html

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Low-Math4158@reddit

See what I mean about them hitting much more frequently now?

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muzishen@reddit

Yes

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feastu@reddit

One report said it was a waterspout (tornado over and of water).

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RBR927@reddit

It would be like confusing a tornado with a hurricane here in the US.

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JohnNeato@reddit

Built in 2008, refit in 2016, so it was due to be gone over. It was also the only sloop, all it's sister hulls are ketches, Narrow beam for the length, world's tallest mast. Easy to imagine it snapping at a mid to lower spreader, hanging from a stay and heeling her over to 90. She would go down fast if not buttoned up. I guess we'll know soon. Still deeply disturbing to think of such a craft being dismasted when not under sail. Almighty Poseidon's wrath. RIP.

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ovideos@reddit

Maybe I'll sound dumb, but I thought a boat with a monohull profile wouldn't sink "like a rock". I mean it's not like a fishing or cargo boat with a big hold that fills with water. My experience is only on much smaller boats, but I would think the hull would have to be cracked or holed for it to sink so fast. Wouldn't it?

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JohnNeato@reddit

Unless it capsizes upside down there's no way for it to trap air. If it's laid on its side and the bulkheads and companionways aren't shut it fills up and sinks like anything else. This thing had a big spiral staircase down the middle. My trailer sailor has positive flotation, as in has foam Chambers inside and actually can't (normally) sink, but most do not and but I doubt anything over 30 ft does.

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ovideos@reddit

Yeah, I guess a big super yacht is different. I've seen a 28 foot boat swamped with water that wasn't sinking at all – like shin deep in the cockpit and chest deep in the cabin. I've also read about storms where people are spun and they are almost underwater in the cabin, but still they don't sink. The boats are fiberglass but I don't think they are negative buoyancy. I suppose a super yacht must be steel, so that doesn't help. But still I think a cargo or fishing boat will go down much faster than a steel sailing boat. The potential openings are just so much larger and there's not much else in those boats other than steel and air. Not all boats sink the same, so I'm still wondering about the Bayesian – did it crack/crumble/break in some way?

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audacibus@reddit

bullshit comnent you know nothing

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YogiBarr@reddit

Best comment so far

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ipeon82@reddit

Right dumb question but is there any chance of foul play do we recon?

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Dizzy-Alternative390@reddit

Well, foul play in breaking the mast of this massive boat?

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gmatocha@reddit

Well there are certainly a lot of very powerful rich people who had motive (see the HP fraud trial). Also, despite some articles saying he was a nice guy - welllll. Look up *stack ranking employees* - a practice Lynch enthusiastically embraced. So there's a big groups of not-so-rich people that also have motive. That said - calling up an apparently verified tornado to do your dirty work is real tin-hat stuff. Biblical even.

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haikusbot@reddit

*Right dumb question but* *Is there any chance of foul* *Play do we recon?* \- ipeon82 --- ^(I detect haikus. And sometimes, successfully.) ^[Learn more about me.](https://www.reddit.com/r/haikusbot/) ^(Opt out of replies: "haikusbot opt out" | Delete my comment: "haikusbot delete")

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pixelpuffin@reddit

Useless speculation, as usual. With many survivors, and the captain among them, surely we will know very soon what caused this disaster exactly. RIP.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Hopefully yes. Is there a risk though that the captain might try to cover any crew's/company faults?

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ChazR@reddit

No. His ticket requires him to cooperate, which he would anyway. The UK MAIB will be involved, and they do not mess about. The full sequence of events and cause will be known. The wreck will almost certainly be raised because a) the MAIB will want to examine it underwater then ashore, and b) it's fouling a valuable anchorage. We will know how this happened.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Thank you Sir.

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pixelpuffin@reddit

I dare say the full scenario will unravel one way or another. There will be all survivor's accounts, as well as the wreck itself is in fairly accessible depth and location. A diligent inquiry is, of course, called for, but such suspicion seems a bit uncalled for unless more information comes to light that warrants it.

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ChazR@reddit

The wreck will be recovered. The Italian authorities are not going to leave a hazard like that in a popular anchorage. This is why we have wreck removal insurance.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

I agree. Thank you.

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Sea_Principle178@reddit

The owner turns out a company wholly owned by the Mike Lynch's wife, Angela Bacares, a survivor.

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JustASimpleEngineer@reddit

Rather strange AIS data for their last 24h. The had originally sailed about half way across the bay towards Porticello, however they turned back and returned to the east of the bay before sailing again across the bay, closer to shore, to within half a km of the port. Before getting to port though, their bearing deviated completely from their track, indicating that they had perhaps lost control and were being pushed sideways. It looks like they dropped anchor in the same area as the sailing ship Sir Robert Baden Powell (who later came to the rescue of the survivors). They stayed at anchor for quite some while before heading south east, after which AIS contact was lost.

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Griffin5577@reddit

In a boat like that wouldn't you want to be pointed into the wind? I was looking at their past track and right at like 2am it does some weird moves

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somegridplayer@reddit

AIS heading is not accurate unless under way.

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Griffin5577@reddit

Thanks wasn’t aware.

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JustASimpleEngineer@reddit

The wind didn't appear to be strong during the day. It picked up very strongly during the night it seems, when they were already at anchor.

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Lumpy-Economics2021@reddit

That is odd. Big disasters often have a compound of issues altogether.

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NoMajor8739@reddit

Theory.......hear me out. Yacht registered in the UK - fact Named Bayesian - fact Who made hundreds of millions from Bayesian Theory, Mike Lynch of Autonomy fame. - fact So, is Mike Lynch the owner, and was he on it at the time (given all these yachts are chartered). - theory.

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NoMajor8739@reddit

Sadly since confirmed, vessel was owned by Mike and he is apparently missing presumed dead. I have always admired Mike, a self made Essex boy, may he RIP.

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GuitarCatFairylights@reddit

His co-defendant in his US fraud trial also passed away on Saturday after being hit by a car...

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ApprehensiveSea4747@reddit

Damn. Can you link an article, please?

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ipeon82@reddit

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74jzd22dkno

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ApprehensiveSea4747@reddit

Thank you. Prosecutors be like 🌩️

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Sea_Principle178@reddit

Whoa...

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somegridplayer@reddit

It wasn't a squall, it was a tornadic waterspout, not a cute little waterspout where you get wet and maybe get broached and shrug about it. This was a full bore tornado on the water, probably EF4 or higher.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

If that was the case I stand corrected. In my many decades at sea, most of which in the Med, I've only witnessed the latter (sometimes being strong enough to rip through beaches lifting sunbeds and parasols, not something you would brush off as funny) but never the former, and since the term "tornado" in local parlance is sometimes used inappropriately for the less powerful ones I might have been wrong to doubt about the phenomena. Thank you.

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GreenEyes_OliveSkin@reddit

Horrible circumstances if true. RIP x 7 🙏

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DilithiumCrystals@reddit

You are right: at this point there are more questions than answers. It is at 50m, so I doubt it was anchored, in port, or ran aground and, no matter how bad the squall was, it is difficult to imagine wind or waves caused her to sink.

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somegridplayer@reddit

> it is difficult to imagine wind or waves caused her to sink. Given it was hit by a tornadic waterspout, no it's absolutely not difficult to imagine.

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JustASimpleEngineer@reddit

She was def at anchor for quite a time, you can see the AIS track at anchor up until she moved south east and was lost.

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Mrkvitko@reddit

AIS reported "At anchor". Then she either started drifting (or they raised the anchor for some reason), then she stopped transmitting.

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JustASimpleEngineer@reddit

On a footnote, the last photo showing Bayesian leaving port on Sunday evening also shows the Sir Robert Baden Powell which would later rescue the survivors [8ee9cb64-2a07-46f9-b6f6-cba728fd2fe8.jpg.webp (800×450) (bbci.co.uk)](https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/ace/standard/800/cpsprodpb/vivo/live/images/2024/8/19/8ee9cb64-2a07-46f9-b6f6-cba728fd2fe8.jpg.webp)

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ArousedByCheese1@reddit

Are those sails practical or for show?

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JustASimpleEngineer@reddit

Perhaps a bit of both.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Now that I see that pic I believe I have seen the Bayiesian moored in Kapsali bay south of Kythera island at the end of June 2024 !!! It struck me at night with that huge lit mast.

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bilgetea@reddit

That must have hurt /s

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MrDeviantish@reddit

Dad joke enters the conversation.

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63pelicanmailman@reddit

From 1440 news… Superyacht Sinks A luxury superyacht carrying 22 passengers sank off the coast of Sicily early yesterday, leaving one person dead and six people missing. Fifteen people were rescued, including a one-year-old child. British tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch—acquitted in the US in June of fraud—and his daughter, Hannah, are among those who remain unaccounted for. The 184-foot yacht named Bayesian was caught in severe weather conditions, including a waterspout, which caused it to capsize around 5 am local time. The ship was anchored roughly a half-mile off the port of Porticello when the storm caused the vessel to tip over. Its mast—the world’s tallest aluminum mast in the world at 246 feet—then quickly pulled the ship underwater causing the yacht to sink to about 164 feet deep. See photos of the yacht here. According to the US Coast Guard, there were 3,844 recreational boating accidents in the US in 2023, resulting in 564 deaths.

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UpbeatRequirement490@reddit

This Yacht had a 75m long mast for cool looks. Keel was 10m long when extended but could be shortened to only 4m for harboring. If the keel was in 4m position, there is a lot less counterbalance. Try drawing a 75cm mast over a 4cm keel on a piece of paper for 1:100 scale.

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Weird_Username1@reddit

The expected value was -100m under the sea.

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Coca_lite@reddit

Owned by wife of UK tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch. He recently won a long-running court case against him by HP in the US. Was found not guilty. Wonder if the yacht was built to his personal specifications and there was a design fault that made it vulnerable? Odd to sink rather than just get damaged, unless the keel / hill ripped open.

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ipeon82@reddit

Well his co defendant recently died under rather suspicious circumstances as well. So it’s not utterly ridiculous to think

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Spruce-mousse@reddit

This is really unnecessary speculation. There are many possible root causes for this tragedy which will all, no doubt, be investigated in detail in coming months. To wonder aloud if this was due to the owner having made design specifications, that lead to the yacht being inherently unsafe, that were then incorporated into the design by the naval architect and implemented by the builders yard, is both a bit silly and also very disrespectful at this point.

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That-Makes-Sense@reddit

Well, there is tons of speculation on this thread. Chances are some aspect of some of this speculation is correct. What is the harm? Maybe somebody reading all of this speculation will get interested in naval architecture and start a new career. Sharing knowledge, even through wild speculation, isn't the evil thing you believe it is, and I don't see it as disrespectful. If someone said made a slanderous claim, obviously that would be,,, well, slanderous. But,, even naval architects make mistakes. I'm curious if a naval architect was involved with the OceanGate Sub? I love the TV show "Air Disasters" (I'm watching it now), and the vast causes for airplane accidents is very interesting. Boating disasters are similar. Discussing these things is what reddit is all about. Surely the investigators will get a ton more details and they'll probably find the exact cause, and we'll all learn.

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Spruce-mousse@reddit

Speculate all you like about possible.mechnical failures or the weather or whatever, that's understandable , but pointing the finger of blame directly at someone who has likely just lost their own life, along with that of their family and friends, is highly disrespectful at this point, not least when the entirely unsubstantiated speculation itself is so extremely unlikely to be accurate

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That-Makes-Sense@reddit

I don't find this quote disrespectful. Obviously, you do. "Wonder if the yacht was built to his personal specifications and there was a design fault that made it vulnerable?" I'm guessing the investigators will be carefully reviewing the design. Is that disrespectful of the investigators to review a one-off design? Again with the OceanGate's Titan, after the implosion there was immediate speculation that the design was flawed, including speculation by James Cameron. Similar to the tragedy with the Bayesian, the Titan was a one-off design, and the CEO of OceanGate also perished in his vessel.

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Spruce-mousse@reddit

We just have to agree to disagree on this, but in answer to.your.questions, no of.course it wouldn't be disrespectful for the investigation to look at the design, that's it's job, and this is not in any way comparable to this baseless speculation, plus it will be done in private untill the final results are made public. The instant speculation about the causes of the OceanGate tragedy, while I would still class this as somewhat disrespectful, was a lot more understandable, as it was not only based on previous history but was also obviously a likely cause from the off. If you can't distinguish the difference between those examples and this case, then there isn't much more.to be said here.

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Deep_News_3000@reddit

Agreed, nonsense speculation which is also disrespectful

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homer_lives@reddit

As is his 18 year old daughter. It is a very sad day.

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doctorsalty46@reddit

What is the likelihood of someone being stuck in the hull and being rescued?

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Admirable-Spinach-38@reddit

if they find an air pocket they can survive for a while depending on the size and the time taken to find them.

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Massive-Path6202@reddit

Serious question: was this a forecasted storm that most others nearby had gone ashore to shelter from?

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

For sure a passing front was well forecasted.

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Cambren1@reddit

The hull seemed to mimic Rolex ocean racers, with a very flat contour under the stern which enables the boat to ride on the corner of the stern. Very fast, but not as stable as a traditional wineglass profile. A similar problem occurred in the 72 Fastnet race and the emphasis on the IOR offshore rules. People seem to want to design cruising yachts around the latest racing profiles, but there is a lot to be said for inherent stability when designing cruising yachts.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Very true.

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tea_horse@reddit

[Nautical salute this evening for those lost](https://www.instagram.com/reel/C-3KTelu2OE/?igsh=MXF0enZsbWd4cjdheQ==) PS this is not my video

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dynabella@reddit

Thanks for sharing this video.

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oldmaninparadise@reddit

Did I read this correctly that they at anchor when it sunk? Because it was in 150' of water it said where it sank? I must be missing something.

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mojoheartbeat@reddit

A yacht of that size easily carries tackle for 50-80m of depth. I loaded 250m of 24mm studded chain onto a yacht of 34m at a job... Especially in an emergency they could have dropped all chain at large depth and planned to use engines and chain to keep her pointed to the wind.

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Griffin5577@reddit

so thats what is weird here. If you look at the AIS past track it seemed to have been pointed into the wind. Then around 2am it does a 180 with its back to the wind travels SE then loses signal. The boat next to it did the same SE movement at the same time but stayed pointed into the wind. Its almost like someone was asleep on watch or something...

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Blue_foot@reddit

Do you have an image of that?

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Griffin5577@reddit

Shoot they must have taken it off its no longer showing up. It was very strange though. I even pulled both up side by side and watched each basically move with the storm, only the Bayseian went portside into the wind for a few minutes then stern into the wind while the other boat stayed perfectly into the wind the whole time. Very strange

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feastu@reddit

It might have been anchored in shallower water and dragged anchor.

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jukkala@reddit

How could the boat "lose its keel"?

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sailinganon@reddit

More up to date info here at bbc: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/ce38n4egqwzt

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homer_lives@reddit

15 of 22 people were rescued by another ship. 1 dead. Rest missing.

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Coca_lite@reddit

One of the rescued was a 1 year old baby

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iwatchterribletv@reddit

…which the mom temporarily lost in the water and then recovered. i cant even imagine. that poor womans nerves will never be the same. :(

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Cambren1@reddit

Many boats survive demasting every year. I think it may have been the combination of demasting and lack of stability in hull design

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fedupwithamazon2@reddit

If the mast snapped and fell at right angles, still partially attached, the COG might be outside the boat. It then would get pulled over and the hull would flood. Given that the mast was 'the second tallest in the world' , it's weight and length may have played a part.

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Rino-feroce@reddit

From what i read on italian news that seems to be what happened: *The boat was still at anchor in front of the harbour when the tornado struck. With the anchor still lowered, the cloudburst allegedly snapped the sailmast, causing the boat to become unbalanced and sink. There were two sailboats in the bay, and it was the other boat that rescued the Bayesian.* *'The wind was strong, very strong. Suddenly I saw the main mast of the 72 metre tall sailing ship bend and then break and fall into the water,' said Karsten Börner, the captain of the Sir Robert Baden Powell, the Dutch ship that first rescued the sailing ship. It all happened in the briefest of moments.*

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michael_dearman@reddit

An FT article quotes a skipper as saying it was knocked flat, then sunk. And the article speculates that was due to water rushing in. I know it's still a sailing yacht but I doubt a vesssel of that size is designed to be knocked flat.

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thesofakillers@reddit

inb4 racist comments on italians

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muscoy@reddit

Sometimes even rich fuckers die

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Skipper_Carlos@reddit

I guess ripped hull because of falling mast or lost keel.

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RenegadeTechnician@reddit

Was the owner of the yacht fighting over quaaludes?

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Deep_News_3000@reddit

Not funny

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

If anyone is patient enough it will see that the reference to a "tornado" is not accurate. Below this chart you should look for the images timestamped 19 August between 1AM and 3AM UTC (here in Italy we are UTC+2 right now and the reports of a waterspout/squall vary from 3AM and 5AM LT): [https://www.agenziaitaliameteo.it/en/meteorology/observed-data/satellite/europe-meteosat-infrared-map/](https://www.agenziaitaliameteo.it/en/meteorology/observed-data/satellite/europe-meteosat-infrared-map/)

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smittyplusplus@reddit

That is an infrared satellite map, not remotely suitable for "seeing a tornado". Here, go watch this: [https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/how-to-recognize-a-radar-confirmed-tornado/328885](https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/how-to-recognize-a-radar-confirmed-tornado/328885)

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smittyplusplus@reddit

Some of y'all in these comments acting like you've never seen a tornado before. A direct hit from a tornado would destroy most yachts.

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Scared_Comfort_7277@reddit

Is there any pictures of the hull and centerboard design. Huge difference between boats like the southerly’s or Pelagic (Skip Novaks boats) that have ballast in the lifting keel and those like my Allures or Garcias that it just functions as a foil with little relative weight. Report of keel loss which would be devastating for the former and just inconvenient for the latter.

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6etyvcgjyy@reddit

Any comments here are at best going to be conjecture at best. I have read the news reports carefully and it is very difficult to get real answers from them. Press media will emphasize human interest above technical content. Some things are reasonably plausible. Firstly a sudden weather event was a prime contributor. Secondly the vessel seems to have been at anchor close inshore. Thirdly time of incident about 0400. Looking at the yacht type and location and attempting extrapolation it would seem that the vessel was in excellent condition and seaworthy. If at anchor and not under way under sail then a violent squall would be unlikely to capsize the vessel rrgardless of extreme rig. The event timing as 0400 with 15 clear survivors indicates there was sufficient time to evacuate from sleeping down below. So this was not immediate bilging or capsize but meso scale innundation. 2 or maybe 3 on watch at 0400 did well to evacuate the 10 plus guests closest at hand. Postulation is a violent squall caused vessel to drag anchor into a near shore obstruction and sink into relatively shallow water. Proximity of land and emergency services and rapid response contributed to fortunate survival ratio.

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InTheNameOfScheddi@reddit

It was 700 meters from shore and the depth there is at 50 meters; don't believe it hit something, probably like others said, mast either ripping from the hull or falling and breaching the hull

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spongecake341@reddit

2 or 3 people on watch at 4am? Seems quite unlikely.

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6etyvcgjyy@reddit

0400 change of watch. Diffucult conditions. Steward making coffee if any guests awake. The Master rightly uneasy about weather. Steep coast and an early port entry. All is guessing. The flag state will do an enquiry especially as loss of life involved.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Well with a 10-12 professional crew not unlikely though.

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Good reading. The boat apparently sank on a 50 m bottom. In that are the coast sinks quite sharply and you have deep blue water quite close to the coast.

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Traditional-Fig9419@reddit

I’m from sicily, these happen quite often

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Parli di trombe d'aria? Ma ui usano il termine "tornado" che è proprio tutt'altra cosa. PS Sorry had to use our Italian terms. "Tromba d'aria" should translate to "water/wind spout/funnel"

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Traditional-Fig9419@reddit

Si, per gli americani (vivo in America da 7 anni) non esistono sono piccoli tornado hahaha

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Che ficata, complimenti, vorrei avere lo stesso coraggio :) Buona fortuna

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Traditional-Fig9419@reddit

Grazie! Si spero di iniziare dei corsi di vela presto e poi prendere una barchetta da tenere in Sicilia

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olddoglearnsnewtrick@reddit (OP)

Uno dei mari più belli (e difficili) del mondo !!!

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PBRisforathletes@reddit

Are these Pirinis fiberglass or aluminum hulled? Very tragic, you’d think a boat of that size could take it, I wonder if it being at anchor exacerbated the stresses.

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str8dwn@reddit

Aluminum

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6etyvcgjyy@reddit

By the MCA

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6etyvcgjyy@reddit

It remains very much conjecture currently but some research with charts of the Scicilian coast shows steep to, rocky shoreline. The 50 meter isobath may be just a few cables off the rocks. And weather yesterday and this morning did not especially indicate violent conditions but local cells can develop rapidly in warmer climes. A key part of this is the timing and successful evacuation of 15 souls.

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