BP Predicts Global Oil Demand Will Peak In 2025

Throughout the year, my little petrol car averages 70 mpg (Imperial not US). In the UK, petrol contains about 9.5 kWh/litre based on typical mogas density. In the last five years, the most I have driven is 3,600 miles/year. So my car consumes 2,104 kWh/year of gasoline based energy. If I buy an EV, I might expect it to average 3.5 miles/kWh (more in summer, much less in winter). To do 3,600 miles/year, the EV's battery would need to supply 1,029 kWh/year to the electric motor. However, when you account for battery charging losses, you need to import 1,143 kWh/year into your house & when you account for transmission/distribution loss through the grid, you need 1,256 kWh/year to be fed into the grid by the power generator, be it from coal, gas, wind, solar or biomass. Here in the UK, 30% of our power comes from Combined Cycle Gas Turbines with a very creditable thermal efficiency of 50%. Factor to this in the calculation & you need to expend 1,633 kWh/year of basic upstream energy for my EV to do 3,600 miles/year.  On this basis, by swapping my little petrol car a typical EV, my annual motoring energy use drops by 461 kWh, from 2,104 kWh to 1,633 kWh; a saving of 23% which is okay-ish but not something I might shout from the rooftops! So now let's look at economics... Right now, petrol costs £1.40/litre. To do 3,600 my petrol costs £327/year of which £190 is tax. Tax funds all sorts of good stuff so to keeps the playing field level, less say my petrol bill, less tax, is £137/year. For EVs, the price of power varies hugely. You might pay 7.5p/kWh on the cheapest domestic overnight tariff but 67p/kWh at an off-street, supermarket charging station. For the sake of argument, let's say it's 20p/kWh which just happens to be what I've paid over the last 12 months (a mix of cheap overnight battery stored power & more expensive daytime leccy). So for the 1,143 kWh/year of power I need to drive 3,600 miles in my EV, I need to shell out £228/year. Tax is levied at 5% on domestic power, so on an untaxed basis I pay £217/year. So on a TAXED basis I save £99/year or £1,970 over TWO DECADES but to achieve said savings I need to dump the car I bought 8 years ago for £7k & buy an EV for £20k+. That's simply not a viable economic argument! Furthermore I think plenty of punters like me realise that & it totally explains why private buyers are so reluctant to make the switch. On an UNTAXED basis, I end up paying MORE to fuel the EV & deprive The Exchequer of £1,598 over that same two decade period. That doesn't make me feel great either! PS - in 2021, my domestic gas consumption was 7,963 kWh/year. In the last 12 months, it's dropped to 3,505 kWh & this been so one WITHOUT having a heat pump installed, just having more roof insulation fitted & being judicious with the central heating thermostat...