Kinda late to the game, but it shows how awareness of the Climate Crisis is spreading.
There’s an old saying that amateurs talk about tactics, dilettantes discuss strategy, professionals study logistics. In a world where the "open market" grain supply in 2020 was 157.3m tonnes, Russia now controls 55.6m tonnes. About one third.
FYI - 20m tons of grain feeds about 300 million people.
**To quantify how important each ton of grain is, consider it this way.**
A ton is equal to 2,000 pounds of grain.
It will feed 15 people for one year with a daily loaf of bread each.
A million tons feeds 15 million people for a year.
***20 million tons feeds 300 million people for a year.***
**With Russia to supply it with grain from Ukraine, The US loses one of the last clubs over China it had.**
The US can no longer threaten to “cut off” China’s food supply.
A threat, you heard repeatedly BTW during the Trump years from administration officials. Whose attitude towards China was “these are our demands”. “Give us what we want, or we will wreck your economy with tariffs and starve your people by cutting off your food supply”.
ALWAYS remember that Trump threatened China's food supply to try and get a better "trade agreement". When that failed he started a trade war by enacting tariffs as a $100b tax on American consumers.
In order to cause a recession in China. In order to make the Chinese grovel and accept Trump's terms.
Trump has also repeatedly stated that he would break grain delivery contracts with foreign countries in order to keep prices lower for US consumers.
I.E., Trump would let Norway starve before he would make US voters pay more for bread. Trump has said he would "use food as a weapon" to advance US goals.
Nate Silver's models give Trump a 52% chance of winning in November in a 5000 scenarios run last month.
WHY IS ANYONE SURPRISED COUNTRIES ARE STARTING TO HORDE FOOD.
Over 26 countries are already restricting food exports.
In March of 2021 Xi went to Siberia to meet with Putin.
They signed a treaty about a "moon base".
[The Strategic Implications of the China-Russia Lunar Base Cooperation Agreement](https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/the-strategic-implications-of-the-china-russia-lunar-base-cooperation-agreement/) 03/21
Unless you really think this meeting and treaty was actually about a nonexistent hypothetical moon base, something happened there. Putin and Xi made a deal.
**Xi left that meeting and went out and bought up 50% of the world's grain reserves. Enough to feed China for about 18 months.**
**Putin must have said something pretty damn convincing.**
**China gets ready for war and famine.**
[China hoards over half the world’s grain, pushing up global prices ](https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Datawatch/China-hoards-over-half-the-world-s-grain-pushing-up-global-prices)12/21
*China is maintaining its food stockpiles at a “historically high level,” says the head of grain reserves at the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. “However, there is no problem whatsoever about the supply of food.”*
China’s stockpile of wheat accounts for about half of the world’s supply, according to the US Department of Agriculture. 02/22
As China imports record levels of grain every year, an oft-repeated vow by President Xi Jinping is given greater impetus: “The Chinese people’s rice bowl must be firmly held in their own hands.” 03/22
The 2nd largest reserves in the world are the US grain reserves.
At just over 20m tons, it's enough to feed the US population for up to 1 year.
Where are you getting that number for US grain reserves? Because IIRC, the US doesn’t actually have grain reserves, just cash to buy grain. I hope you’re right, because if not, we are gonna be so screwed this winter.
Wouldn't a land war destroy the viability of the land and prevent it being used for crops for some time though? A full scale invasion and war in Ukraine would potentially mean that the land Russia wants is of no use, not until several years after the damage is cleared up. At that point, climate change will be in full swing and could make it worse.
I don't put much stock in Putin or Russia but the Chinese are absolutely not stupid. Whilst the West and its privileged populations refuse to reduce their quality of life and prepare for climate armageddon by pointing at Chinese emissions, China probably is betting that they can outlast the rest of the world when it starts to go to hell.
They won't cut their emissions while no one else is, but they are using that to prepare for what is to come unlike the US and Europe who are still keen on worshipping capitalism and neoliberalism until extinction is at their doorstep.
> I don't put much stock in Putin or Russia
Bold words, given that Putin is a former KGB agent. His goals are absolutely insane but calling him stupid is just stupid in and of itself. Never underestimate your enemy.
Russia is navigating around most sanctions, selling their oil to literally *everybody*, yes even the West. They hold huge amounts of the world's grain supply. They're fighting with mercenaries, prisoners and foreigners to keep the war away from Russia's core population. They got 2 million artillery shells in the span of a week while a conglomerate of the world's richest countries are tip-toeing around artificial red lines for 2 years.
Again, I don't support this war whatsoever, but not accepting your adversary's actions and downplaying their effect is the fastest way to lose.
Their goal is to have 3 months worth of emergency grain stored by -2029-, “in case of a crisis?” Yeesh, I didn’t realize countries were so ill-prepared when it came to emergency food supplies…not comforting.
The US strategic grain supply is just a pile of cash because some genius bureaucrat figured it was too expensive to maintain stores of grain and that we could instead just *buy* food supplies during a famine.
Good news is those vast caverns with cheese in them. That's at least something.
https://www.farmlinkproject.org/stories-and-features/cheese-caves-and-food-surpluses-why-the-u-s-government-currently-stores-1-4-billion-lbs-of-cheese
Cheese gives me diarrhea hardcore. I eat pizza or macaroni and cheese, it's wet the entire next day all the way down.
Weird as fuck because they thought I was lactose intolerant, but I'm not. Milk and other dairy products do nothing to me, but cheese fucks my shit all up.
I fucking love cheese.
It may not be the cheese. It may be preservatives or added food dyes that are setting you off. European cheeses do not have the extra junk added, I eat them no problem. Sargento is problem free too for me. Kroger brand shredded? Yeah, migraine and GI distress every time.
And this is why you should never trust the gov to look after you during a crisis and have a well stocked food pantry. Ideally enough that can feed you for 3 months normally or 6 with rationing.
Hey I mean a thousand bucks was supposed to last through an entire pandemic.
And ask any economists... We are JUST NOW finishing up with spending that ..
I always though the "goverment cheese" was some kind of meme.
never in my wildest dreams would I have guessed that the goverment has 1billion pounds of cheese in reserve.
Yes but if there's a flour shortage there's going to be no crackers to go with that.
And I'm sorry, but I'd rather starve than eat cheese without crackers.
Great, the ruling class gets to eat cheese forever, then they’ll print another trillion dollars to send the rest of us another stimulus check that we can spend on weapons to hunt and eat each other.
I bet the pile of money does not exist, that they borrowed from it with the promise of paying it back if needed, just like they did with Social Security.
Meanwhile we are paying Farmers not to grow crops on their lands to keep prices High. How about we pay Farmers too grow crops and then buy part of it to stockpile, and then sell or distribute it before it goes bad?
Our tax dollars should not be used to make things more expensive for us. We can help the farmers while making things cheaper.
not really true...they hold 2/3 of the world's grain reserve
https://www.dlg.org/en/agriculture/topics/dlg-agrifuture-magazine/knowledge-skills/grain-reserves-in-the-hands-of-just-a-few-countries
But at least they plan on years worth of food, not month or dollars you can't buy non existing food with....like,US is one if not the biggest exporters, they could shut export down but having no plan is their plan.
Because of course the food is going to buyers, not needing ones , like Ireland, let the people starve to death to make money, Hel yeahhhh.
But Russia stores it's own grain, it exported 57 million tonnes last year, this year "only" 55 million tonnes are expected.
https://www.reuters.com/article/markets/currencies/russian-grain-exports-in-202324-may-slip-from-record-high-202223-lobby-group-idUSKBN2YJ139/
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/wheat-production-by-country
Don't let this map fool you, Russia fits three times into Africa in real life.
And if you look at these maps
https://www.vrogue.co/post/russia-agricultural-map-vector-maps
You will see that most of their land will benefit from climate change in short term/ a few decades, simply because of a longer growing season and warmer summers and they still have plenty land to expand which they will pretty much do.
I'm in Canada and we've got Taiga and tundra as well, a lot (probably most) isn't suited for agriculture no matter how warmth the earth gets. It just doesn't have the right top soil. It's lots of bed rock, swamp/peat etc.
Just because it goes from cold to warm doesn't mean we'll be able to grow anything substantial on it.
That's why I linked the agricultural maps, most of Russia's crops grow in th European part south west of Russia and there is plenty of room for expansion, as well as north of Mongolia. People often think Russia is only east siberia and Moscow, somehow. Of course melting permafrost is swamp land and not arable, but that's not where there crops grow anyway . And with 50 million+ tons export, hunger is not their concern, if if shit goes south, Russia can feed itself.
Norway is the country with the lowest self sufficiency rating in the world.
All the parties have become good time parties, they're completely useless when it comes to planning for bad times.
This is why I encourage everyone to start gardening and growing their own food if they can. You can even do it indoors with grow lights or potting plants by the window. I'm growing onions and some greens in my room right now because my garden isn't huge. Obviously it's not ideal when SHTF or your house gets destroyed in a disaster but it can really help out. Green onions grow really fast and are very hardy, just cut the stalk and they will regrow, sunflowers grow fast, you can eat the seeds and keep some to regrow it. The grocery stores won't be open forever.
You arent feeding yourself on what you an grow in a not so house lot.
But I definitely can feed myself on a bunch of those gardens after I jump all the back fences.
Yes as you throw blankets over i throw blankets off, as you ramble through I grab the ole boom stick.
As I fire, i'm shouting "how do you like them apples"
In the 90s we (Norway) had enough grain stored for one year, but at the start of the new millennium all sorts of preparedness and redundancy in systems was abolished. It was the end of history, after all... Not only did they empty the silos of grain, they sold the silos and the properties off. Some were demolished, some converted into apartments and even one art gallery, some just abandoned. So even the infrastructure is gone.
But yeah, the timeframe and lackluster ambition when they realise it has to be rebuilt is ludicrous, even beyond 2029 the goal is to have enough grain for 6 months. Still less than what we managed in the 90s.
The 90s and the 00s will stand as decades of unprecedented foolishness, if anyone is left to write down the history.
Ah, I remember the “End of History”.
Interesting background. Yes, 3 months is pretty sad. That said, it’s approximately 3 months better than most everyone else.
That's probably true, and obviously we in Norway are well positioned to take steps like this, our annual budget debates are concerned with how much oil money we can spend without setting the economy on fire.
It's also worth mentioning that the Norwegian government now recommends that everyone should be prepared to manage at home for seven days in a crisis without outside help, up from three days earlier. The typical necessities: Enough water, food, medicine, alternative heating and light, and also iodine pills for certain age groups.
Which might seem extreme in other places or as if the government isn't planning on managing a crisis; I noticed a lot of ridicule in British channels when their government earlier this year came with recommendations for preparing for three days. But Norway is rugged and our climate harsh, so in most parts of the country it's possible to become isolated for a short period without anything catastrophic occurring.
Your local food terminal stops getting restocked- there's always a last truck to the gate before it never comes back. Put yourself in that day. It's mayhem on day 1. "Theres no food"..."what? what do you mean?"..."there's no more food... coming... ever!
That will be said and one day it will be true.
.
Think of how massive cities are. If everyone tries to leave cause the power is our and there's no food, what happens then?
We are prepared to be unprepared. This is sabotage so that the whole structure falls apart at the same time and the rich have plans to get away.
... not that I believe there's anywhere safe to go.
Like frogs in a pot, it's not the location in the pot that's the problem, it's the water that's getting hotter and hotter. If youre in the coldest spot, you get to suffer a little longer.
There is no off of this ride.
> If everyone tries to leave cause the power is out and there's no food, what happens then?
I can answer that one!
A friend used to work in the UK as a food industry lobbyist. He was involved in govt disaster planning as a representative of the supermarkets.
They looked at London and decided it was completely uncontrollable, so the entire plan for if the food stops flowing is to extract the VIPs by air, then wish the police lots of luck and cover the city's exit roads with troops. People trying to leave will be diverted into concentration camps around the M25, London's major orbital. Hostiles will be shot.
Same plan for all the other major cities.
This is why I laugh when Cuntservatives mused about bringing back National Service. Like you don't have enough police or soldiers when shtf, you won't have enough during mass civildl disobedience either.
Oh, I remember re-watching Gladiator and there's a moment when the sister and another politician are talking about the emperor.
- How is he affording the games?
- With the future. He's selling the grain reserves
Cut to present moment when politicians have sold so much of the future than there's none left. There's no bread and the circus are the politicians themselves.
If they wanna stretch 82 500 Tons over three months that means 166 grams per person per day. (Siege of leningrad worst point of rationing was 125 grams)
With regards to the state of our planet , this is worth watching as it offers hope. Small communities have already started to implement this model to demonstrate it can be done. And it offers hope. Even if we're too late, at least something is being done . Communities are starting this , sourced by crowd funding and asking everyone from builders to bin men to parents to lend their skills. So that we can build new sustainable and renewable communities in which everyone from all walks of life share their skills so that we can learn outside the outdated system we live in. With poverty and deprivation, there's never going to be hope to live sustainably. I know if the collapse is to happen I'd prefer to live in a community where everyone shares and supports each other, and has not become dependant on the electric grid, gas companies and mass production of goods ( to name a few ) to get by in life. Also, if my child is to live in this new world of collapse, I want them to have the knowledge,skills, and community to survive the best they can.
We can't rely on the government and corporations that puppeteer our lives anymore. We need to break the addiction of the lives that have become so comfortable for us and start doing it ourselves, but we need community.
https://youtu.be/Rhcrbcg8HBw?si=Kzm_eBAGoM8xsCMB
They know, like all those in power know.
The world is about to become a very violent, very unstable place, real soon. Collapse is right around the corner, and inevitable.
It isn't the rich, it is the people who advise the rich.
Every one of them has dozens of experts, scientists, and more, constantly keeping them informed about the actual facts of what is happening in the world.
Think of it like the President's Daily Brief. The person who is leader of a nation is rarely an expert in science, economics, or warfare. But they make decisions along those lines because they have the best minds in those fields telling them the things that the public isn't necessarily told.
If you think that we know more about the war in Ukraine, and the overall geopolitical situation in the world, than the leaders of European nations, I hate to be the one to poop in your soup, but you are dead wrong.
Yeah, sadly, you're right. It's already happening, just some of us are isolated from the instability that is hitting others. But we can't hide forever. :(
As food supply gets more attention, I would add a recommendation to look at the famine of 1315. There are good summary videos on YouTube. It was a climate change induced famine.
My big takeaway is that you need food to get you through to the *next good harvest*. 3 months isn't enough.
And people will get desperate enough to do a lot of dark shit.
Extra mouth to feed yes - but one that works for it's food. Only have to let her chase down a toddler each week and would be she's sorted. The rest of her effort would feed me
"My big takeaway was that you need food to get you through to the *next good harvest*."
Maybe there won't be a next good harvest because of climate change. Famine of 1315 is caused by LOCAL climate change. We are fucking up the whole world now,
The answer is goats, my friend. Goats can eat a bad harvest, and poisonous weeds, and woody bushes and survive in a desert. The people who became the dominant culture in mesopotamia after the bronze age collapse of the wheat dependent city states were the Arameans. Hairy mountain goat herders who had been considered barbarians by the Acadians and Sumerians..
Goats require more inputs than outputs. They need a human sized portion of milk per day when they are young, which needs to come from other goats, and then mixed with a tons of fresh water. They are incredibly expensive to raise before they ever eat a single bramble. There's a reason they've mostly been replaced by machines.
Their poop is the best fertiliser there is. So much better than horse, cow, sheep or rabbit poop. Valuable stuff when you need to take care of the plants
Indoor growing will scale in places that can manage it. There's lots of adaptability to leverage. It's just do they wait until billions have starved to death or not and what's your personal risk of starving.
Geopolitically I can see a certain amount of starvation being deemed to have a coldly calculated strategic benefit. It's going to be a very dangerous period of history imo.
By indoor growing I think you meant hydroponics? I don't think hydroponic will work for calories intensive corps like grains. Do you seriously think human can grow enough indoor fruit, and grains.
Soylent Green used to seem so ridiculously far fetched that they did an SNL skit about it. This is the plot synopsis and we all know how it ends…
The story follows a murder investigation in a dystopian future of dying oceans and year-round humidity caused by the greenhouse effect, with the resulting pollution, depleted resources, poverty, and overpopulation.
That's not a lot, but it's a good habit. Everyone should be switching more land from feed crops to food crops and creating bigger stockpiles.
Anyone who mentions meat here doesn't understand food calories and primary ecological production. Same goes for the ever present would-be cannibals.
On a side note, this image is more amusing in this context:
https://preview.redd.it/1bhltdiuqy8d1.jpeg?width=1360&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=62264fc7ce725898d32fa366fc228ccf82cee114
Elder Scrolls V Skyrim (looks like with some added texture mods). Everyone only eats bread. "Skyrim" is supposed to be analogous to the Scandinavian region.
At 1000 calories a day it would last them 18 days. Thats assuming they are able to proceds and equally distribute it.
Or the Norwegian military (Reserves included) could feed itself and 3 family members each for 149 days.
Wonder what will happen.
Look at Gaza to get an idea of how it'll be with (insufficient) help. Then imagine what will happen without any help whatsoever to answer your question.
Farmers hoarding for better price, suppliers hoarding for betterer price, scammers hoarding for reseller betterest price, governments hoarding, consumers hoarding. In the end the humans will be wiped out and hoarded grains shall inherit the earth
The following submission statement was provided by /u/pajamakitten:
---
Collapse related because it shows that some countries are starting to take not of how things are going, at least in the immediate future. It also shows that some countries are going back to contingency plans of yesteryear, now that the global supply chains we are reliant on fluctuate and begin to decay. Serbia recently announced a similar plan in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
---
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1dozutp/norway_starts_stockpiling_grain_again_citing_the/lad8tc3/
Collapse related because it shows that some countries are starting to take not of how things are going, at least in the immediate future. It also shows that some countries are going back to contingency plans of yesteryear, now that the global supply chains we are reliant on fluctuate and begin to decay. Serbia recently announced a similar plan in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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