Linux market share rising after windows 10 support ends?
Posted by Zery12@reddit | linux | View on Reddit | 182 comments
I think everyone here knows that windows 10 support is ending next year, considering that over 60% of people is still in windows 10 for different reasons (mainly the pc not supporting w11). What do yall think will happen in 2025 with linux? Since even after support end, many people are gonna still be in windows 10 for convenience.
I can see linux market share rising from 4% to 6% or very unlikely 7% but no more than that. Specially because people still think even ubuntu is hard to use.
TinyTowel@reddit
They've been saying this since Win95. The answer is no.
Granixo@reddit
Back then only a fraction of homes and businesses had computers.
Now?
We can't live without them.
adamkex@reddit
I think the majority will upgrade to Windows 11. If they can't then they'll stick with 10. I told my friend about this who also runs a business and he doesn't care that his OS won't receive anymore security updates. A small minority of regular desktop users will swap to Linux or Mac. The market share will increase a little bit but not as much as people on here are hoping for.
Linux being implemented in the public sector will have a bigger impact. Linux is the only viable option for governments who don't want to be reliant on US companies. Mostly thinking about non-US friendly or aligned countries like Russia, China and India.
s0litar1us@reddit
*downgrade to Windows 11
it's a higher number and newer version, but it's worse.
crustmonster@reddit
its not worse though and everything people bitch about can be disabled.
s0litar1us@reddit
Yes, there are features you can disable.
But there are also things that were in windows 10 that is no longer possible in windows 11.
GeordiePowers@reddit
If I've gotta waste my valuable time disabling everything on a growing list of garbage, that's objectively worse
timthetollman@reddit
Yea waste it debugging some weird Linux problem instead!
GeordiePowers@reddit
It's true, that is inevitable. Personally I can justify that a bit easier though, because while debugging I'm usually learning something new about computers. That feels a bit less like a time waste than figuring out how to turn off some advertisement or convince the OS that I actually do want to change my default browser
chaosgirl93@reddit
"Linux is free, if you don't value your time" - but Windows also costs time, and is expensive and proprietary, so...
gnocchicotti@reddit
Yeah we know, 2000 was the last good version and every one has been a downgrade when it came out. Then every time the oldest supported version goes EOL everyone mourns it because it was so good.
flatline000@reddit
I've got a little computer hooked up the TV running Windows 11. It's nothing special, but it works fine.
adamkex@reddit
Edgy
WesternPrimary4376@reddit
But he's right
ColetteDiskette@reddit
I know someone still running Windows 7 and refuses to update. This is someone lives on their computer, too.
It seriously perplexes me how people can be fine with their operating system of all things in this day and age no longer receiving security updates, but stubborn will be stubborn.
Loud_Literature_61@reddit
I still run an instance of Window 7, dedicated hardware-wise to one PC. I also run one instance of XP, also on its own PC. These are for support reasons only, to run older software and older equipment. Neither has any network interface.
tmofee@reddit
In my job we look after specifically designed machines that still run windows 2000. They aren’t connected to the net, thank god, but even so. When we have reimage them , we have to run a cd to start with for the base window cause the bios is too old to usb boot, then we install the latest software via USB
ColetteDiskette@reddit
Yeah, obviously in the case of no internet it's fine. Talking about that, I do have a Windows 98 and a DOS 6.22/Win 3.1 machine that I just don't connect to any network stuff and obviously those aren't getting updates either lol.
slaymaker1907@reddit
Do you use them for old games or something?
ColetteDiskette@reddit
Yeah, I do a lot of retro gaming, and that's the main purpose of those machines.
snow-raven7@reddit
I don't think many realise the importance of security updates.
On a sidenote, I remember when I visited passport office in my country (India), they were using windows 7 PCs.
avnothdmi@reddit
Those may not have connections to the internet, to be fair. Airgapped/intranet systems are perfectly okay to have Windows 7 on.
BogdanPradatu@reddit
I use my computer for gaming only. I don't care about security updates, what's the worst that can happen? I have to format my drive and reinstall my games?
slaymaker1907@reddit
Blizzard was the first account I added an authenticator to because it got hacked and keyloggers were really prevalent at the time. It’s definitely not as bad as having a bank account hacked, but it was still really shitty.
Even besides WoW, I imagine some gamers have pretty valuable accounts due to the skins they have in certain games.
If you ever login to your email like to create a new gaming service account, that’s another attack vector
crustmonster@reddit
do you not have any bills, credit cards, or a bank account? You don't purchase anything off the internet?
ColetteDiskette@reddit
If you sign into anything, a whole lot can happen. If you use Steam for instance, your Steam account could be compromised. If you have your PayPal linked to it, that sounds like it could be a fun time for someone.
Spiderfffun@reddit
I know a guy running 7 on old hardware, getting him to switch to mint.
Monsieur2968@reddit
I had a few normie friends ask me to install Linux after the Windows Recall thing was announced.
Jward92@reddit
Even in the US Congress is finally catching on to the fact that running this unauditable code is a massive cyber security nightmare. I’m glad it’s finally being talked about.
adamkex@reddit
Surely they have access to the source code through shared source?
beanbradley@reddit
You're talking about a government where half the sitting members in both parties are older than sliced bread and secretly taking Alzheimers meds, don't get your hopes up
adamkex@reddit
True but surely they employ people who aren't on those meds
Jward92@reddit
What makes you sure that?
adamkex@reddit
IIRC there's a shared source programme and it's literally the US government
PurepointDog@reddit
Brazil too!
Chrs987@reddit
Besides I'm sure like we saw with Windoes 7, despite end of life, if a big enough vuln hits Microsoft will patch it.
fliberdygibits@reddit
Trouble is MS is going to charge people to keep using 10 after the date, increasing each year for a few years then you just have to transition.
https://www.spiceworks.com/tech/tech-general/news/microsoft-charge-annual-fee-windows-10-support/
snowthearcticfox1@reddit
That's just for support. You can still use it just the same as before.
fliberdygibits@reddit
Sure, I figure it's still worth pointing out. For businesses and workers this is more likely to be a problem.
snowthearcticfox1@reddit
Tbf paying for extended support is common for enterprise linux distros as well so it's not really that noteworthy imo.
fliberdygibits@reddit
The average home user that doesn't have the hardware or desire to upgrade to 11 probably also has never had to pay to keep using windows and especially has never paid for some kind of enterprise support.
But yeah, the number of people it's going to be problematic for is probably pretty small as a percentage of the total desktop market.
Coincidentally I have a housemate that's being frustrated by this very thing. Can't/won't do windows 11, not ready to jump on linux and hates having to pay to keep using windows 10.
snowthearcticfox1@reddit
You don't have to pay to keep using it.
RICHUNCLEPENNYBAGS@reddit
They’re just going to use it without support if they don’t update dude. Nobody is paying for enterprise support for their home PC
adamkex@reddit
Most people who won't upgrade aren't going to be paying for that
fliberdygibits@reddit
Yep, I agree.
thrwawy324531@reddit
most will switch to windows 11, i doubt market share will go higher than 3\~4% but i'd like to be proven wrong
psydroid@reddit
Global market share is steadily increasing and in some countries it's already 10-20%. Mostly North America and (Western) Europe are lagging.
SirGlass@reddit
Or just keep using windows 10 , its not like windows 10 will stop working
marcthe12@reddit
It depends on software support, chrome being the main one. Chrome usually drop support around 1 - 2 year after EOL.
SirGlass@reddit
meh once again older versions of chrome will work , and will probably work for years, its not like web technology is changing so fast a browser a few moths(or years) out of date will not work.
Mr_Lumbergh@reddit
Without patches though it’ll become game on for hackers. I’m hopeful that getting 10 onto the LTS track will be as simple as some registry tweaks as it was for 7, I used that for a couple years beyond EOL for those times I needed windows.
InstanceTurbulent719@reddit
people in poor regions keep using their windows 7 PCs from 15 years ago. People don't care or don't have better options
slaymaker1907@reddit
I like how we all only talk about Windows 7, Windows 10, and Windows 11. I feel like we’re forgetting something…
Kaizenkaio@reddit
Oh yeah, Vista.
slaymaker1907@reddit
Lol, no, I was thinking about Windows 8 and 8.1.
Kaizenkaio@reddit
No no we don't talk about those.
Mr_Lumbergh@reddit
My wife calls me a "tech-savvy Luddite." I could see where they were taking Windows and didn't want any part of it; I also chafe at the trend of the most basic services requiring an app that takes up space on my phone and does who knows what behind the scenes.
At a certain point though I went ahead and switched; they were harvesting more and more data, but really weren't getting much from me on an install I treat as Wintendo. Doesn't mean I like it though. I have to use 11 at work and I simply do not like it or want it on any of my own machines, so the Wintendo drive will stay on 10 for as long as I can manage it.
chaosgirl93@reddit
I'm the same way - my mum's just a straight up Luddite, and she comments on our shared behaviors around tech a lot, mostly the phone app thing is the biggest one we'll both bitch about in public.
Generally we both share a similar attitude on technology - don't trust tech any more than absolutely necessary, and we want the tech to get out of our way and do what we tell it, not make things more difficult and obtuse in the name of simplicity and modernism.
a_can_of_solo@reddit
I know an old man who still uses Windows 7, bane of my existence. I could give him any number of newer computers.
maphivee@reddit
They're ceasing security patches next year and wanting people to pay for updates lol. They really want people to upgrade - https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/windows/whats-new/extended-security-updates
Username928351@reddit
My desktop PC is perfectly functional (4c8t CPU, 32GB RAM) but I can't install Windows 11 because of lack of TPM 2.0 chip.
glacial-reader@reddit
You can bypass both the TPM and secureboot requirement with a single command. You download the installer and run
setupprep.exe /product server. It does not install a server version, it just bypasses some of the requirements.FwippFwopp@reddit
I'm making the jump over to Linux. Not immediately, but I am running a Fedora 40 KDE Plasma 6 environment on a mini-pc that I'm experimenting with hosting some dedicated game servers. I've already picked up quite a bit and am enjoying the journey so far. I can see myself making the swap on my daily driver once I ensure all my apps/data are backed up.
Evol_Etah@reddit
Until consumer versions of Linux is company profitable. Linux market share will not raise enough.
Example, Android phones are very profitable as a consumer OS. And thus is widely used.
Companies simply don't see Linux as a viable alternative for consumer products due to an immense lack of proprietary software being unavailable, and the UX not being as intuitive for target demographics.
SirGlass@reddit
I really do not think google makes much money selling andriod OS, they make money on other services bundled with the andriod os like the google play store, as well as collecting user data and serving up ads
Evol_Etah@reddit
Agreed. So the whole Playstore dominance takes place.
They get zero from Android. But since all (non-apple) mostly used Android. Playstore is usually default. And playstore takes a 30% (depends) cut on all purchases.
And (insert Epic Games lawsuit for monopoly) occurs. Which was ONLY achieved. Cause Android was widely used.
Rebellium14@reddit
Support ending means no more OS updates from Microsoft. Isn't that what happens to most operating systems regardless of who creates them? No company is going to support an OS forever. A majority of people will most likely:
jr735@reddit
Since MS really doesn't sell Windows in the way they used to, as u/adamkex notes, MS relies on people upgrading computers unnecessarily, which is what Windows 11 pushes. That way, they get money for licenses on new installs.
Fortunately, for us, that means a glut of very, very capable desktops and laptops that will work years more with Linux.
adamkex@reddit
Can you explain what's fortunate for us?
SirGlass@reddit
If you just want a PC (usually laptop) you can buy a laptop for $100 or sometimes less that still may have 16 + gigs of ram some intel 8-16 core processor that is great for general PC useage (web browsing , general office type stuff )
jr735@reddit
I don't buy new PCs, at least for many years. I tend to buy off lease or used PCs, save hundreds, if not thousands, of dollars, and still get years of life out of them. At least some people who want to upgrade to Windows 11 or think they need to will be pressured into new hardware. There's a good chance they'll sell the old hardware at pennies on the dollar.
Then, I will buy one, and put Mint on it.
adamkex@reddit
I mean that's good for you and a few other people but there's going to be so much pointless e-waste because of this arbitrary requirement
jr735@reddit
Of course, it's a pointless amount of waste. I'm already doing everything I can about it, which isn't much. I don't use Windows, so am not subject to their arbitrary whims. I buy used hardware and repurpose it.
ShasasTheRed@reddit
laughs in slackware
adamkex@reddit
The difference is that millions of users are unable to upgrade. It's a gigantic security and environmental hazard. Microsoft are being extremely irresponsible with requiring TPM 2.0.
perkited@reddit
The typical pattern of posts will look something like the following.
Hey guys. Windows 10 isn't getting any updates and Windows 11 is spyware, so I'm moving to Linux LOL.
Hey guys, how do I get working? It doesn't work in steam and I've tried downloading Wine, but it keeps saying C:\ not found.
Hey guys, I really need to get this game working so I don't have to go back to Windows. Please help me!!!!
Look, I'm trying to use Linux but no one here is willing to help fix my issues. At least with Windows I can play all my games and don't have to deal with rude people.
I'm leaving Linux. I tried, I really did but the community is just too toxic and I couldn't get my important applications and games to run. Maybe I'll try it again when Linux has gotten better.
Blackstar1886@reddit
This is the cycle. For years people tried saying, "Linux isn't just for programmers" to boost adoption, but if you have any end-user-specific critiques or suggestions you'll immediately be told "developers don't want that" or "if you want it you should learn to code."
SirGlass@reddit
We are far beyond that today , you 100% do not need to be a programer to use linux
It really comes down to vendor support on both the hardware and software side
95% of issues is not that people can't figure out linux, its they cannot get their windows only software or hardware to work because the vendor that makes software or hardware does not support linux
Thats not really anything the linux community can "fix"
jr735@reddit
Here's your answer to people that want a beginner distribution - Windows. And even there, people don't want to learn. Don't want to learn? I don't want to help. Find paid tech support.
Blackstar1886@reddit
This is why the only time Linux makes a leap forward anymore is because a corporation stepped in to care about UX.
jr735@reddit
I'm not worried about leaps forward in market share. It's a product that's generally not for sale. Something that goes along with software freedom is me not concerning myself with what you run, and me providing advice or tech support only when it suits me.
usr_sbin@reddit
Well, I'd like my government to use Linux because of security, price and data sovereignty, I'd like my workplace / school / university to use Linux because I don't personally like using Windows, and I'd like enough people to use Linux so that enterprises care about it and software and hardware works perfectly out of the box. I don't think you can say a growing market share has no benefits for us, Linux users.
chaosgirl93@reddit
I used to not give a shit about OSs and the worst I'd get annoyed by was seeing public institutions running outdated systems - one or two versions behind was concerning, comically behind was just funny (like running 95 in the end of the XP era, or running XP now).
Now that I know about this stuff and the political implications of any government relying on a private corporation to respect their privacy, to say nothing of it being an American company and a lot of these governments not being American or even Anglosphere, I cringe every time a government institution is using Windows. It's bad for security, to put it very lightly. I wish more institutions that need privacy would just ditch that security nightmare.
jr735@reddit
I'd like them to do that, too. But, I never claimed there is no benefit to a growing market share. It's something I don't worry about, and it's not the prime concern of a product or service that isnt' for sale.
I'm used to having to shop hardware and software carefully, having started computing in the 1970s. What we deal with now with Linux compatibility is trivial to the problems that used to exist.
ShasasTheRed@reddit
That's mostly because of the bits of hacker culture that are ingrained in the linux community from competitive and artistic code creation for customization and use-case, also to push people to learn and to think not just for themselves but for problem solving ingeneral.
Evol_Etah@reddit
I am a programmer and a developer.
2, 3, 4 don't apply to me.
Instead "UX was not implemented (requires so much plugins and extensions)
Seriously, how is drag and drop on desktop, not an inbuilt feature? How is dynamic wallpapers, rotating wallpapers and a simple lockscreen wallpaper that is not blurred. Not default.
Again. At this point, it's dumb Gnome-tweaks is not pre-installed or baked into the DE.
What do you mean "Just having Nvidia GPU means by screen constantly flickers. And I had to research and figure out how to disable Nvidia despite drivers installed. Just so my screen refresh rate is not de-sycned."
(I use PopOS, and refuse to use Fedora cause "What do you mean I need to install a package.... TO WATCH YOUTUBE ON A BROWSER.... THIS IS LIKE BASIC!!!! HOW IS THIS NOT BAKED IN)
I daily drive Windows11. With PopOS dual booted for emergencies. Updated once every 6 months.
Finally the nail in the coffin was.... TF YOU MEAN MY ANDROID IDE EMULATOR BREAKS DUE TO INSUFFICIENT RAM. BUT WORKS PERFECTLY FINE ON WINDOWS..... It's Android (it's linux).... It's a developer requirement!!!!! WINDOWS USES MORE RAM. I HAVE NO APPS RUNNING ON LINUX BACKGROUND. I CAN SEE THE RAM USAGE ITS 30%. AND WINDOWS IS AT 90%
But it works on windows WTF.
powermad80@reddit
The fun part is, these two things in particular have finally been fixed. My very recent Fedora 40 install, on an nvidia system, straight up just works now. Video on firefox never acted weird from the very start, and the 555 drivers mean there's just not problems with nvidia anymore. It's beautiful.
I installed the KDE spin so I don't know anything about GNOME but Plasma's got all those obvious inbuilt UX features like file drag and drop (though I just eschew all that for Hyprland anyway lol).
I even installed Android Studio and got the IDE emulator working just fine too, not having any problems with it! Not sure what would cause issues there, could just be an indecipherable difference in our systems.
Your complaints are valid, I just think we're in a time of some significant leaps forward for out-of-the-box friendly usability. I've been downright shocked by the sheer degree that Fedora has been able to just handle everything no-fuss.
Evol_Etah@reddit
I've heard and read the same as well recently.
My experience was before the big Gnome 30? Changes. So like atleast 4 years ago.
I prefer gnome, cause on KDE. I just add all the widgets out of fun and immediately create the most goresome view ever. Definitely a User issue lmao. But I enjoy the minimalistic type of gnome.
I'll give Fedora another try. PopOS has the battery icons now and some great stuff. It's just I use Linux so rarely, I don't see a need to hop tbh.
Btw, is fractional scaling fixed? Windows uses 125%. And I really don't wanna have 125% on Linux only to see titlebars, bookmarks etc of apps like browsers at 100% which is soooooo tiny.
perkited@reddit
Since you're a Windows 11 user (and in a Linux sub), what do you think about Microsoft adding the new Recall feature?
oneiros5321@reddit
The thing is most people don't really care about that. It's an internet minority that's very vocal about those concerns.
I will bet that most users probably either didn't even hear about it or will think it's a pretty cool feature.
Evol_Etah@reddit
Recall is currently on ARM devices and a segregated new series of laptops only.
Microsoft usually does a "let's trick the community to do our work for us."
They released recall on a few devices literally noone is gonna buy. Got free understanding on security flaws, and how to market it next.
Microsoft is too big to fall. A bad marketing like this is nothing.
Microsoft owns windows11, owns GitHub, owns xbox, owns the best code editor (VSC). (Ikik jetbrains exists too, and so does Vscodium). Microsoft can afford screw ups.
Microsoft allows for both WSL2 and Android marketplace & google play beta on its OS exclusively.
To be fair, everything is trial and error. (Looks at Google's app graveyard) And things are forgotten. We hated Copilot in-built. So now it's a seperate app.
Microsoft soft pushed recall feature in the worst possible way that impacts absolutely nowhere. Got free attention amongst investors and business that they are "LEADING IN AI RACE" known to all due to the bad publicity. And all the security flaws were exposed. FOR FREE.
(Microsoft 100% ain't releasing this in Enterprise, as it easily goes against various companies security compliance. It would be consumer thing. Or atleast disabled by default. - refer MsTeams Copilot)
I'm on the same page about recall being a bad idea too. Given passwords, banking would be screenshotted. Or if on company laptops, then proprietary data. And that's just a lawsuit waiting to happen.
perkited@reddit
Thanks. I commented in another post that it's strange they allowed Recall to be released in it's initial state (unencrypted data, etc.), since I'm sure there were plenty of people within Microsoft who could see it's not the best idea from a security standpoint. I'm guessing they just wanted to get something out into the public as quickly as possible, but at least encrypt the data created by Recall.
I just did a search and see they've already started working on the security concerns.
slaymaker1907@reddit
I think that at the end of the day, Microsoft is really like a dozen different organizations hiding in a trenchcoat. There is actually a huge group of passionate Linux users within Microsoft and it was just this year that someone at Microsoft discovered the xz backdoor.
kp729@reddit
Not OP but the concerns while valid are not going to move needle against Windows. Most users won't activate it or use it and some day when it becomes default, people will either ignore it or will find it mildly useful.
Few people will care about the privacy aspect or will eventually cave to use their favorite software/game.
perkited@reddit
I was just wondering what he thought about Recall, since his main OS for his personal use is Windows 11 (not if it would have any effect on people moving to Linux). He's a programmer and is at least somewhat familiar with Linux, so I'm sure he's more knowledgeable about Recall in a technical sense than the average Windows user.
SirGlass@reddit
I mean I can see both sides most people really hardly think about their OS , they use windows because it came with their computer
They hear about this free OS called linux and view it as a "replacement" for windows, then get frustrated because it does not act like windows, or they cannot get their windows programs to work.s
Then will say things like "I heard great things about linux but how can it not even run lol , it can't do basic things?"
And of course this will annoy linux users because well they understand linux is not a "replacement" for windows and of course if you think you should be able to use all your windows applications in the same way you probably will run into problems.
adamkex@reddit
I'll be honest, I've never really encountered toxic users and I've been using Linux on and off since 2006 and I've used both "newbie" and "hardcore" distros. People have for the most part been nice and accommodating.
perkited@reddit
It's there, but not as vicious as many say. It's usually triggered by an entitled user demanding something, so when they don't get what they want they lash out (and sometimes receive a similar type of response).
adamkex@reddit
Yeah, sometimes it's just by people who are socially stunted and don't know how to interact with people. Overall it's quite low
warrior0x7@reddit
I get your point but I don't think market share is really that important.
Development depends on the number of developers not necessarily the number of normal users.
From my perspective and my use case, I have my experience on Linux complete and don't seek anymore development other than security and bug fixes.
People are free to make their own choices in life and we shouldn't be tied to them. If they wanna be a slave to an OS then we can't do anything beyond giving advice.
adamkex@reddit
There's a larger incentive to develop software for an OS with a larger market share. Valve aren't going to port Steam to something like Solaris.
warrior0x7@reddit
Yes that's true but Valve made an enormous growth in Linux adoption for their own reasons. They ported steam to Linux when Linux was less popular back then.
So even if Linux grows, they will find another excuse ... Linux is for hackers ... users are dangerous ... etc.
If they want to develop software or port it they can anytime.
lusuroculadestec@reddit
Valve started to jump on Linux when Gabe Newell was worried that Microsoft was going to restrict all software to the Windows Store and make it impossible to use Steam on Windows.
Newell had also been predicting that Windows 8 would cause top OEMs to exit the market and that Windows wouldn't be a viable platform going forward.
Valve supported Linux because as a "hedging strategy" where the existence of the company could have depended on it.
warrior0x7@reddit
Exactly.
thekiltedpiper@reddit
Most of the people will just bite the bullet and buy a new PC that supports W11 and trash the old one. Sure, they'll whine and complain but they will use W11. Same thing happened when W7 died.
Blackstar1886@reddit
Every major Windows upgrade required a new PC to run it effectively. This is really nothing new.
ViolinistCurrent8899@reddit
Did it? I bought a win 8 laptop that comfortably survived until win 10. But that was admittedly a very, very short product cycle life.
Blackstar1886@reddit
Windows 8-10 was not a major upgrade IMO. I don't even consider going from 7 to 10 a major upgrade. I'm thinking Windows 3.1 to 95/98. 95/98 to XP. XP to 7/8/10.
poudink@reddit
If you don't consider 7 to 10 major, why do you consider 10 to 11 major?
Blackstar1886@reddit
Because it's the first upgrade in a a while that required new technology to run.
poudink@reddit
So Windows 11 needs new hardware because it's a major upgrade and it's a major upgrade because it requires new hardware. Isn't this circular reasoning?
Blackstar1886@reddit
Yes. Now wait till I tell you about a company called Apple.
Western-Alarming@reddit
I had a very early and very cheap windows 7 laptop that lasted until windows 8.1, so i can confirm, i ended up installing Ubuntu on that laptop (i was like 12 when that happened)
CGA1@reddit
My wife's 12 year old Acer begs to differ.
Blackstar1886@reddit
So a Windows 7 machine. Not a major upgrade to get to Windows 10.
JJ3qnkpK@reddit
It'll also become much easier to find info on how to force an upgrade to Win11, at least briefly, as social media and other bloggy news sites list instructions towards the end of Win10s life. So some people, even less-experienced ones, will do that.
filippo333@reddit
Windows Recall made me switch back to Linux. Between Riot Games’ and Microsoft’s spyware, I GTFO of that ecosystem; red alarm bells were going off!
perkited@reddit
What do you value most in an operating system, if you had to choose only one OS? If you weren't able to play any steam games on Linux, would you use Windows 11 instead (even if the Recall functionality was mandatory)?
I'm trying to get a feel for what more technical users (who use both Windows and Linux) think and value.
filippo333@reddit
If I couldn’t game on Linux, then I would be I stuck with Windows unfortunately. I can live without Valorant since there are so many other games I could be playing and that run so well on Linux.
The three most important things for me in an OS are Privacy, Performance and Customisability in that order. Windows 11 lacks all three comparatively.
perkited@reddit
Thanks, it's interesting to see how others are using Linux and what role it plays for them. It actually looks like your ranking of most important are gaming, privacy, performance, and customization.
I admit I'm only a light gamer, but I'd be fine never playing a game again in order to be able to use Linux.
mi3o1@reddit
Actually, this is why I am here. I am new to Linux, but I think this will be the best option to save my beloved laptop's *ss until October 2025
Civilanimal@reddit
The vast majority of people (98-99%) will simply upgrade to Windows 11. A small minorty will migrate to Mac (\~1-2%), and then the tinniest minority \~0.1-0.5% will migrate to Linux. Linux is not a "normie" OS and I doubt it ever will be. Aside from that tiny minority, people are terrified of CLIs and terminals.
Nexis4Jersey@reddit
I think the Windows 10 market share will remain above 50% well into 2026.. I think Linux will see a small increase of 4-6%.. The Ones who don't switch to Windows 11 or Linux will just go to Mac.
Rispido@reddit
It won't be a massive movement but some people will try Linux (around 1-3%). I think the difficult part is to convince those people to stay.
99'9% of Windows/Mac users have no clue of what they're doing. Try to tell them something about the terminal or the packages. They need a distro manageable for a 10 y.o. kid with a android-alike store with no "tricks" (everything safe). And a pretty modern desktop as 1st priority.
That ideas are heavily criticized by the linux community and its snobism (which I'm part too).
AppearanceHeavy6724@reddit
I think Haiku is a very decent candidate, but not yet ready for prime time.
Evol_Etah@reddit
I agree.
I often think a simple open sourced "Git Store" would've been a great way to stop the whole "flatpak, rpm, apt-get gtk etc" fiasco.
A simple. Works on your machine option with the developer choosing a "recommended" type would be good enough.
I mean. Windows got Winget package installer now. (MsStore still sucks)
goonwild18@reddit
The modest (and short-lived) bump in Linux adoption has nothing to do with things like this. It's driven by AI development and will soon be displaced. Normal people don't want to use Linux on the desktop - it has the exact same set of problems it had 30 years ago (sans some driver support). The problem is not getting better, and you mouth breathers rubbing your neck beards and adjusting your fedoras like the world finally understands you are going to be wearing sad faces within 18 months.
ThaBroccoliDood@reddit
Situations like this remind me of this LTT video where he spends the whole video complaining about Windows, and the only conclusion he draws is that he 'has to' buy a MacBook, without mentioning Linux once. I think the majority of people will either not care, buy a new Windows laptop, or switch to something other than Linux
StevieRay8string69@reddit
I doubt most of windows 10 users are even aware support will end or know what Linux is.
gnocchicotti@reddit
Okay I never looked at this until now but here are the officially supported CPUs Intel, AMD
So basically anything older than apparently Intel Core 8000-series/Coffee Lake or Ryzen 2000 desktop/Ryzen 3000 mobile. That's a pretty disappointing official support window for a high end machine from 2017 that's very capable of everyday tasks. I would bet the 7700K is still pretty well represented in the Steam survey. And the Ryzen 1800X was a monster at launch and is probably still serving a lot of people well as a budget workstation.
Seems people are saying W11 runs fine with a manual upgrade but it's sad knowing that there are probably $3000 gaming desktops from 2017 that will get thrown in the trash just because there's some popup telling users they have to upgrade.
Antique-Cut6081@reddit
So first of all, you mean DESKTOP Linux :)
But to answer: nothing special, some power users might move. Maybe 1-2% gain in NA. EU might see a bigger uplift as some governments, especially the German is moving to Linux. Less developed territories like India or South-America is already being dominated by Linux for personal use. China already uses Linux as state administration.
The truth is that Apple still provides a better overall experience, especially considering laptop their hardware. If Qualcomm will fully support Linux (they will by the 6.10-6.11 kernels) that might be a non-issue anymore.
The main problem is still that you can not go into the store mostly and buy a PC or laptop with Linux installed and correctly configured on it. As long as that is the case, nothing will change significantly on the personal usage side.
bitspace@reddit
We won't see a bump in Linux market share. We didn't with the EOL of any previous version of Windows, and there's no reason to think this time will be any different.
chaosgirl93@reddit
I'd say this time it's a bit bigger of a privacy and security scandal so maybe governments and public institutions will look into switching away from Windows, but let's be honest, that's not going to lead to more home desktop users even if every government that should dump American made proprietary software does so and goes with Linux and FOSS programs to replace it, and let's be honest, that's likely not what they'll do even if they do ditch Windows, and come on, if you've ever paid attention to politics and government you know that attempting anything like this takes a decade and costs shitloads of taxpayer money.
SirGlass@reddit
I really doubt it
Many people will upgrade to windows 11 if they can, some will just stay on windows 10 its not like it will stop working
Others will opt to buy a new PC or Laptop
The vast majority of users probably do not know what linux is or know how to install an OS
Maipmc@reddit
The vast majority of users are terrified about the prospect of installing an OS, and the percentage that don't even know what an OS is are increasing rapidly too.
chaosgirl93@reddit
Similarly, there are a rising number of people... scared of computers. Just like the 90s and 00s, but worse because it's not that the machines are new so much as that these people have managed to avoid them for over 30 years.
These are people that... Windows scares them. Linux absolutely terrifies them. And God forbid they see a terminal, they'll go completely batshit. Way too many stories with shocking timestamps, of someone using their computer in front of other people, and getting in trouble for "hacking" - almost always a completely harmless, extremely simple, routinely used, terminal utility. But it's not Windows and it's a terminal, so one of these people gets spooked and lashes out.
I know one of these. She is scary when you put her in front of a piece of tech she isn't used to. They all are. They're like this because they do not actually know how to use a computer. They don't know how a computer works. They don't know what an OS is and why a computer needs one. They barely know what a program or application is.
Modern UI design tries to make things as simple for them as possible, but this really doesn't work to hide that these people do not know anything about computers, and all it does is make things more difficult to use for those that do know what they're doing.
mrtruthiness@reddit
I think that a lot of people who know Linux are going to be able to get used Intel 7th-Generation machines cheap (the dividing line between "machine supports Windows 11" is TPM2.0 but for Intel that was basically with the release of Intel 8th Generation Core processors).
Legitimate_Working_9@reddit
nah most who will switch over will do so before then. and the rest are normies who wont swtich to a new os thats not fully supported by big companies they use
KnowZeroX@reddit
Technically, linux marketshare is already 6% when you add chromeos which is based on linux
That said, I don't think that the switch to windows 11 will cause that much growth in linux. It will grow but no different than switch to windows 8 from 7. Recall probably will have more people switching if anything, though many may still remain on windows 10 (due to hardware) even if it is unsafe
At issue is most people aren't going to go as far as installing a new OS
Most of the recent growth has been due to India government pushing linux. And we can expect if there are bigger pushes in places like European governments and etc to be the biggest growth factor
OwlDesigner4349@reddit
There will be a small uptick in Linux installations, but it will probably mostly just be people who are already experienced with Linux deciding to migrate their Windows 10 devices over. Mostly you'll either have people switching to Windows 11 or continuing to use Windows 10 unsupported, with a few possibly switching to Chromebooks or Macs as well.
The thing is that most people don't really understand the purpose of security updates to begin with, and many of those who do want to use Windows to run very specific pieces of software. Even if a direct replacement exists on Linux the vast majority of computer users will baulk at having to learn a new UI and workflow or having to find workarounds for features specific to whatever piece of Windows software they want to keep using.
There are a lot of non-technically-minded people out there who still want to use the same desktop publishing software or whatever that they started using in 1996 and expect very little else out of their computers.
JerryRiceOfOhio2@reddit
99% of windows users will never change, no matter what. I'm in IT, I installed Linux on my work laptop because I need stuff like nmap, grep, iperf, sed, awk, tcpdump, etc. but even the young people in the department won't even consider Linux because they don't want to learn anything new.
No_Cookie3005@reddit
I believe that is already at almost maximum market share (just for now), since recall has been introduced, maybe with the windows 10 support end linux could get another little acceleration, but nothing incredible.
rklrkl64@reddit
As Linux users, we forget that the vast majority of users have never installed Windows from scratch and are too scared or not "skilled" enough to try an OS installation from scratch. I think those on the fence about Linux might be pushed over by a combo of their hardware not being supported by Win 11 and/or the AI/ads nonsense in Win 11 (yes, Recall might be opt in and local now, but can you trust MS to keep it that way?), but this is unlikely to be more than 1% of Windows users IMHO.
Remember we said similar things with the EOL of previous Windows releases and there was no noticeable move of Linux market share back then. Changes in OS pre-installation are when you can get market share changes and the only major OEM doing this is Valve with the Steam Deck - it's been a big success selling multi-million units, but that only shifted the gaming-apecific market by 1% in Linux's favour. We need more major OEMs to pre-install Linux!
yesvnsonlinux@reddit
Most people won't notice a thing. They have bigger things to be concerned about than their desktop operating system. A lot of people run their lives from their phones and use their computer for one or two things; usually Microsoft Office or something in their browser. They don't know, understand, or care about what whacky thing Microsoft comes out with next.
The people who use their computers for work will be dependent on what the business they work for decides, and if they haven't moved to Windows 11 by now, they'll probably pay for a few more years of Windows 10 support. If they're freelancers, they'll stay on Windows or move to macOS so they can continue using Adobe for work.
The only people who will move to Linux are those who were already considering it and needed a push. And even then, most will only switch on their personal devices.
Maybe a 0.5% increase.
minus_minus@reddit
I think the best case for gains in Linux market share is for young people that had a lot of experience with ChromeOS in school deciding to buy one of their own. This will require some major brands to put out wide ranges of Chrome hardware that meets all levels of users. People who have used Windows for over a decade probably won’t consider switching to Chrome or any other Linux.
NightOfTheLivingHam@reddit
Every windows upgrade has this question and no, that 60% is going to take it in the ass again from daddy Gates.
Tech savvy people will run to linux, but someone just fucking around social media or doing work is going to stick with tried and true, or if they're angry enough, get a Mac, then eventually go back to PC.
Leerv474@reddit
Because many people say "maybe it's time to move to linux" there will be a lot of people trying. In the end They're gonna stick to windows 10 until their software supports it. I know a guy who uses win7 and doesn't care at all. The only time it hit him was when he needed to download software unsupported on win7.
linuxjohn1982@reddit
I'm more interested in the effect of the "Recall AI" that takes screenshots constantly and uses AI to get as much context from each one as possible. I couldn't even imagine this level of invasiveness before hearing about it.
Own-Replacement8@reddit
ChromeOS and Steam Deck maybe. Most computer users don't know how to install an operating system off a USB and I imagine most of those don't even want to know. Most people haven't even heard of Linux.
If they are so fed up with Windows, they'll go out and buy a laptop that runs something else out of the box. That'll probably be Mac for most people, Chromebook for a lot of other people, and they may buy a Steam Deck to play some games.
Until a company like Lenovo or HP decides to take the plunge and ship Linux machines by default there'll never be a "year of the Linux desktop" unless it's Chrome.
Val32601@reddit
Good business opp for the right place for someone
Own-Replacement8@reddit
Tuxedo and System76 are making a valliant effort but I think we really need a mainstream manufacturer to take the plunge. Not sure why they would, though.
redddcrow@reddit
I predict a lot more annoying reddit post about Windows users not happy about Linux not working like Windows, that's about it. They want to use Windows apps and games and have no itention to change or learn, so they will just move to Windows 11. the ones that care about customization, privacy, security, etc, already moved onto Linux 15 years ago.
Laraso_@reddit
Most people are uninformed or don't care, and the few that do are going to switch to Mac or Chromebook 100 times over before Linux. The average person probably doesn't even know what Linux is.
MisterMittens64@reddit
Chromebook is technically Linux though so that would still be a win since Linux would get more support from that.
Alonzo-Harris@reddit
If an organization like the Linux Foundation would invest founds in releasing promos and utilities to aid users to migrate, maybe that would be helpful? I'm thinking like what the government did when TV switched from analog to digital back in the 00s
WesternPrimary4376@reddit
Linux Foundation is way too ocuppied destroying itself to care
kp729@reddit
It won't. Linux won't gain market share until it is default on laptops, and it loses the dependence on terminal, and has more software running on it. I don't even think that gaming is needed.
You want normal folks to use linux, it has to work like a normal desktop ALL the time.
Loud_Literature_61@reddit
I think there will be a healthy supply of good used computers on the eBay market. Not like there isn't already, but the used prices will take a haircut.
thefemtosecond@reddit
I agree with the majority of the people in the comments. However I think that people will eventually start *slowly* adopting Linux if programmers actually port their software to Linux so that there would be no reason to stick to Windows. Key note: "Slowly" This is because it would require windows to so bad to the point where nontechnical people would be searching for alternatives. This also would require Linux development to be very stable to the point where it would be almost impossible for somebody to break it. As much as I would love for it to happen... I wouldn't hold your breath on it. After all, people treat operating systems like the boot-loader for the browser...
lelddit97@reddit
It's the same thing every new Windows release - largely nothing will change. People will either stick with what they have or buy a new computer. In the USA.
In other places more (rightfully) fearful of 3-letter American agencies, it might rise.
BlackWuDo@reddit
It's only because of the steam Deck and a little bit of Chromebooks.
bumwolf69@reddit
Maybe barely 1% don't kid yourself people aren't going to jump to Linux. They didn't when 7 died, and they won't with 10 dying. Most will buy a new PC or run 10 till they just can't anymore mostly due to Steam, Browsers software just stops updating and working.
ViolinistCurrent8899@reddit
I'm expecting win10 to be the next win XP. There's just not enough reason to deal with win 11, and I suspect people will wait until MS gets it's shit together for win 12.
Clamo_Tergo_9521@reddit
Agreed, Linux will gain traction, but user experience still needs improvement.
JonnyRocks@reddit
the majority of people don't upgrade their OS. The majority of people buy new computers, like they do with phones.
Solid_Lettuce3367@reddit
Ideally loads more people will switch. Particularly those without tpm.
yarnballmelon@reddit
Though tpm tools in linux is pretty dope too!
Eternal_Flame_85@reddit
An out of date windows is more stable than newest one
Zery12@reddit (OP)
The main problem is security, windows 7 for example is a easy target for hackers nowadays
Eternal_Flame_85@reddit
Yeah but at least it doesn't bother the user as win11 do Also if you don't download anything from any website it's not likely to get viruses. And the device that is running such old device is properly just for browsing and office
Past_Echidna_9097@reddit
It will be a boom for hardware manufacturers making laptops and mobile devices. And if we're inclined for some small conspiracy theory maybe Microsoft will receive some money for this stupid move.
s0litar1us@reddit
I only use Windows 10 for work (I use Linux on my personal computers), I hope that I won't be forced to use Windows 11 when support for Windows 10 ends, I hate Windows and Microsoft, but at least Windows 10 is slightly bearable.
Hopefully, we will be allowed to use Linux. They already allow people to use Mac.
siodhe@reddit
Crap. I might have to finally convert the only Windows-capable box in my house - for VR - to Linux. I'm not putting Windows 11 on my own computers. F*** Microsoft.
prey169@reddit
Realistically 1% or 2% tops. Ik of a few PCs I'll switch over for some people. But realistically not much
captainstormy@reddit
This is no different than any other version of windows coming to an end.
The majority of users will switch to the new version. Others will stick on the unsupported dead OS for as long as they can.
Maybe a few hundred people total will switch to Linux but that would be about it.
RICHUNCLEPENNYBAGS@reddit
The year of the Linux desktop is here!!
tomscharbach@reddit
I don't expect Windows users to migrate to Linux in significant numbers.
I've used Linux since 2005, long enough to remember the heady days when Ubuntu was touted as "Linux for Human Beings" and the trade press was predicting that Ubuntu would gain a 25% market share within a few years. It didn't happen, and it will not happen unless and until Linux distributions become "no fuss, no muss, no thrills, no chills" consumer-oriented operating systems.
I've also seen round after round of "Windows did this or that ... users will migrate to Windows now, for sure" cycles. That hasn't happened either.
Keep in mind that the newest Windows 10 computers that cannot migrate to Windows 11 are now seven years old, and that market studies suggest that most users get new hardware after 5 years or so.
The bulk of the Windows 10 consumer market will probably migrate to Windows 11, a few might migrate to MacBooks or Chromebooks, but Linux will remain the province of users with more technical skills.
That's my guess, anyway.
gabriel_3@reddit
Nothing.
The very most part of the W10 users are not even aware of the operating system they are running and the alternatives to it.
Some in them will keep running W10, some will upgrade to W11, with a small portion bypassing the constraints, some will but a new W11 computer.
The part taking the chance to change operating system will be negligible, some of them will give up frustrated after a tent I've or two.
Neither 2024 nor 2025 will be the year of the Linux desktop.
Fine-Run992@reddit
Linux may not be as low as 4%. Statistics is biggest lie in world. Marketing is a scammy practise. Example 200 Mpix smartphones that can only take 12 Mpix photos. Fujifilm cameras that have +-9 step exposure bracketing, can actually only take 9 step bracketing, that's +-4 from middle expisure. Mux switch that has no integrated GPU mode. Overtime coefficient 1.5x pay that goes 100% for taxes, you earn more you pay more taxes. You work double hours, it equals as coefficient 1x or even less on your pension sum calculation and makes inflation go even higher, because it equals as average salary.
sue_dee@reddit
I still have a couple functionalities tying me to Win10 that I haven't found ways to accomplish in Linux. Indeed, some of those depend on bought software, so this physical computer will live on as a zombie as long as it can or needs to, though its contact with the web may need to be curtailed.
siete82@reddit
I don't think so, but I'm sure there are going to be a lot of good deals on second hand computers that don't support Windows 11
KrazyKirby99999@reddit
In countries where there is significant Linux presence already, there will be major gains. Elsewhere I'd expect and additional 1-2%.